中国的经济放缓对我们所有人意味着什么?

@luting3
I agree we need protect self industry under some conditions. But those conditions should be well regulated otherwise it could abuse to hurt free trade.

我同意我们需要在某些条件下保护本国工业，但这些条件应该得到很好的监管，否则可能会被滥用来损害自由贸易。

@user-ln5pi6zp2t
In today's current global environment of wars and unilateral sanctions China's 5%plus growth is alot higher than many if not all Western countries.

在当今充满战争和单边制裁的全球环境下，中国5%以上的经济增长率比许多甚至所有西方国家都要高。

@taocook6526
Chinese real estate bubble was not crashed by US like it did on Japan. That made huge difference. Chinese still has good control on its economy. US can't benefit from Chinese economic downturn. That just drove the Wall Street bankers crazy.

中国的房地产泡沫并没有像日本那样被美国击破，这造成了巨大的差异。中国仍能很好地控制自己的经济，美国无法从中国经济衰退中获益，这简直要把华尔街的银行家们逼疯了。

@User-007imwnx
It's a large country w. a complete supply chain, huge domestic market and hardworking and modest people, shaped both by natural tendencies and gov's pressures. Protesting is not allowed and media is tightly controled, so you won't see chaotic scenes leaking out, although many videos of business and people struggling can be found online.

这是一个幅员辽阔的国家，拥有完整的供应链、巨大的国内市场和勤劳谦逊的人民，这些都是自然趋势和政府的压力所造就的。在那里抗议是不被允许的，媒体也受到了严格的控制，所以你不会看到混乱的场面，不过你可以在网上找到很多关于企业和人民挣扎的视频。

@rebeltheharem7028
Well, its more of a debt problem that will make them hit a recession than anything else. Internally, local governments are struggling with a lot of debt. This isn't to mention that 25% of their GDP was fueled by real estate, which was the primary funding source for most municipal governments in China. The export thing is actually quite misleading conclusion. If export decreases, than they can only rely on internal consumption to maintain the same economic growth. But if domestic consumption decreases along with export, then the economy won't grow. Even if they want to shift entirely to tech innovation, so it makes up and replaces the real estate sector (which is how municipalities get their funding), this would still take decades.
Long - long, term, they might recover and eventually make a pivot, but in the short term, without changing their domestic debt problem its unlikely to see any real recovery unless they just straight out print money to service existing debt, which would end up causing inflation, which would decrease domestic consumption even more (especially since none of this money would reach the consumers and is only used to essentially bail out municipal debt).
This is quite honestly a long term problem that they have to deal with, or it will be impossible to prop up their GDP numbers like it is now. Their tech advantage is not the problem, it can easily be corrected in a command market. Consumer spending is also not a hard thing to fix. The biggest problem is the unmanageable municipal debt.

好吧，这更像是一个会使他们陷入衰退的债务问题。从内部来看，中国的地方政府正为大量的债务而挣扎，更不用说中国25%的GDP是由房地产拉动的，而房地产是中国大多数市政府的主要资金来源了。出口问题实际上是一个误导性结论，如果出口减少，那么他们只能依靠内部消费来维持相同的经济增长。但如果国内消费与出口同时减少，那么经济就不会增长。即使他们想完全转向科技创新从而弥补并取代房地产行业（这也是市政当局获得资金的方式），这也需要几十年的时间。

从长远来看，他们可能会复苏并最终转向，但在短期内，如果不改变他们的内债问题，就不太可能看到任何真正的复苏，除非他们直接印钞票来偿还现有债务，这最终会导致通货膨胀，从而进一步减少国内消费（尤其是因为这些钱都不会到达消费者手中，而只是用来救助市政债务）。
老实说，这是一个他们必须解决的长期问题，否则就不可能像现在这样支撑起他们的GDP数字。他们的技术优势并不是问题所在，这在指令性市场中很容易得到纠正。消费支出也不难解决。最大的问题是无法管理的市政债务。

@CNHI1987
China's low-end manufacturing industry is shifting, and this part is for American artificial underwear. But in high-end manufacturing, that's quite good. Since the beginning of this year, the sales of high-end industrial equipment in our company have been very good. The R&D department has been working overtime for five months continuously, and the orders are too many to finish. The performance of our products completely crushes the Germans.

中国的低端制造业正在转移，这部分是美国人造内衣。但在高端制造业，这一点相当不错。从今年年初开始，我们公司的高端工业设备的销售就非常好，研发部门已经连续加班五个月了，订单多得做不完，我们的产品性能完全碾压德国人。

@v.l.3326
It is the USD that needs value endorsement, not Chinese industry. The more USD FED prints, the more centralized manufacturing it needs to assure USD's purchasing power.Modern, super-large-scale manufacturing leastways need stable and unlimited supply of 3 things: 1, clean water, 2, electricity and 3, population of engineers/ skilled workers . Putting these 3 factors into consideration, the day China left/got kicked from, whatsoever, the SWIFT and rejected the USD would be the day USD collapse. The main reason that China didn't do such move together with Russia, I personly believe is that China still benifits from current USD system and Chinese ruling class had put too much wealth in it.

需要价值背书的是美元而不是中国工业。美联储印的美元越多，美国就需要越多的集中制造业来保证美元的购买力：现代的超大规模制造业至少需要稳定和无限供应的三样东西：1，干净的水；2，电；3，工程师/技术工人的人口。考虑到这三个因素，中国离开/被踢出SWIFT并拒绝接受美元之日，就是美元崩溃之时。我个人认为中国没有与俄罗斯一起采取这种行动的主要原因是中国仍然受益于当前的美元体系，而且中国的统治阶级在其中投入了太多财富。

@yufish6576
because our people work hard. simple

因为我们的人民努力工作。

@herrwolf5184
@Xero15 there are plenty of jobs in China, just less jobs that young graduates feel they are entitled to. Since there are so many educated youth, competition is high for high skilled jobs.

@Xero15 中国有很多工作机会，只是年轻毕业生觉得他们有权获得的工作机会较少。因为受过教育的年轻人太多了，所以高技能工作的竞争很激烈。

@DarkwarriorJ
The first 2 minutes, discussing productivity growth inefficiency, has me thinking one thing only:
"Oh, my home country of Canada is screwed, aren't we? That's, like, the exact thing we've been repeatedly told we suck at." Doesn't even matter if I believe any of the rest of the video; what matters is that the long term drivers for my own country sort of suck atm. HMM.

前两分钟，在讨论生产率增长效率低下时，我只想到了一件事：
“哦，我的祖国加拿大完蛋了，不是吗？这正是我们一再被告知的我们最糟糕的地方”。我是否相信视频中的其他内容甚至都不重要，重要的是我自己国家的长期驱动力有点糟糕。嗯。

@davidscholz7489
Interesting take on China. Can certainly agree with most points mentioned. However, what will the effect be of the demographic change in the population of China? Further, what are the macro economic implications of the current mismatch of the labour skills in the Chinese labour markets (a lot of graduates but more manufacturing jobs are required atm)?

对中国的看法很有意思。当然，我同意其中提到的大部分观点。然而，中国人口结构的变化会产生什么影响？此外，目前中国劳动力市场上的劳动力技能不匹配（中国拥有大量的毕业生，但目前需要更多的制造业工作）对宏观经济有什么影响？

@teac117
Robotics. That's been their latest 'catch-up' focus. Although some people have argued that the robotics isn't to replace Chinese workers, but it's to replace western workers. I think it's a bit of two birds with one stone.

机器人。这是他们最新的“追赶”重点。有些人认为机器人技术不是为了取代中国工人而是为了取代西方工人，但我认为这有点一石二鸟的意思。

@Andy-P
What is going to happen in China to raise consumer confidence and generate more domestic demand? The real estate continues to be a drag and there is resistance in many countries in accepting more Chinese exports. To do that they would have to reduce their manufacturing base further. Something with de-risking will be difficult. As he says China has had it's day of easy economic growth.

中国将如何提高消费者信心，创造更多内需？房地产仍然是拖累因素，许多国家在接受更多中国出口产品方面存在阻力。为此，他们必须进一步减少制造业基础。去风险对中国来说将是困难的，正如他所说，中国已经度过了经济轻松增长的日子。

@SdoZachary1
The United States sanctions may be able to stop China in its tracks, but these policies are more damaging to the development of the United States and the global economy. I don't think it is possible for manufacturing to return to the United States because the profits from manufacturing do not meet the expectations of Wall Street.

美国的制裁或许能让中国止步不前，但这些政策对美国和全球经济发展的损害更大。我认为制造业不可能回归美国，因为制造业的利润达不到华尔街的预期。

@bnco
Strange with the very last point you make with free trade don’t hear the economist say that when the west is on an upper hand.

你对自由贸易的最后一点看法很奇怪，当西方占上风时，没听经济学家这么说过。

@Victorianukeland
Experts from USA/Euro : China is collapsing
same experts USA/Euro:China is not collapsing,
Same USA thinktank. :Why China over-capacity in productions

美国/欧洲专家：中国正在崩溃。
同样的美国/欧洲专家：中国没有崩溃。
同样的美国智库：为什么中国产能过剩？

@user-wu2ph4de4o
1960s 6 kids per woman, then 1 child 1 family policy with an extremely high girls abortion rate. Now that most of folks moved into cities and kids are no longer contributors into agriculture or whatever the peasant activities but rather are significant resources recipients families are no longer able to allow many kids even with all the legal restrictions lifted. The fertility rate in China is 1.15. Now still productive labour forces will be unproductive in a couple of decades. There are to be replaced by several times smaller generations. Not quite sure it is something amazing for any economy feeding tonnes of old people per each working person. Just don’t tell me those elderly folks who worked 12 hours a day, 6 days a week in awful conditions are still be working efficiently in their 70s and 80s.

20世纪60年代，每个妇女生育6个孩子，然后是1个家庭1个孩子的政策，女孩堕胎率极高。现在，大多数人都搬进了城市，孩子不再是农业或其他农民活动的贡献者而是重要的资源接受者，即使取消了所有法律限制，家庭也不再允许生育很多孩子。中国的生育率为 1.15，这将导致现在仍然具有生产力的劳动力在几十年后将失去生产力，取而代之的将是几倍于现在的生育率的老人。我不太确定对于任何一个经济体来说，每个劳动人口养活数以吨计的老人是否令人吃惊，别告诉我那些在恶劣条件下每周工作6天、每天工作12小时的老人到了七八十岁还能高效工作。

@indian3021
Their population decreasing hence rate of growth will decrease with time, but per capita will increase, and future is of ai and robotics and they are developing in that field hence become high income research based country, with no addiction of game, porn and western standard of sm their youth are growing much better than western youth

他们的人口在减少，因此经济增长率会随着时间的推移而降低，但人均收入会增加，未来是人工智能和机器人技术的时代，他们正在该领域发展，因此他们会成为以研究为基础的高收入国家，不会沉迷于游戏、色情和西方的智能标准，他们的年轻人比西方年轻人成长得更好。

@cool.politics
It’s not about believing in the free market or not. It’ 's about whether China, not a free market, should be permitted to continuously dump its overproduced goods into the world. China worsens the already unsustainable global production systems.

这与是否相信自由市场无关，而是中国这个不自由的市场是否应该被允许继续向全世界倾销其生产过剩的商品，因为中国加剧了本已不可持续的全球生产体系。

@unifieddynasty
Yes, the current economy is due to consumption -- high debt and savings fuelled consumption in America and low consumption in China due to the real estate shock. These will soon pass.

是的，当前的经济是由消费造成的--美国的高债务和高储蓄助长了消费，而中国则由于房地产的冲击造成了低消费。这些很快就会过去。

@illuminatiehmful
You believe in Free Market when it is advantageous to you. What you do believe is double standards in treatment of free market. The WEST is always barbaric in terms of dealing with other countries.

当自由市场对你们有利时，你们就相信自由市场，你们相信的是对待自由市场的双重标准。 西方在对待其他国家时一直都是野蛮的。

@vlhc4642
It's actually quite fascinating, I've seen American videos analyzing how young people have no hope for the future, and they were fully capable of figuring out its due to unaffordable housing and high inflation.
Then same group would cope by watching videos on how China's collapsing from (government induced) lower housing prices, lower living expenses and "overcapacity"
It's as though they have common sense, and yet they turn it off when it comes to China.

这其实很吸引人，我看过美国人分析年轻人如何对未来不抱希望的视频，他们完全有能力找出这是由于买不起房和高通胀造成的。
而同一群体则会通过观看有关中国如何因（政府诱导的）低房价、低生活费用和“产能过剩”而崩溃的视频来应对。
就好像虽然他们有常识，但一提到中国，他们就把常识扔一边了。

@deniztatl9992
Thank you sir, thanks. You clearly explained the relation between 'free market economy', 'protectionism' and democracy of Western culture and how easily they can turn as if they are 'oriental belly dancers'. That's what is going for centuries.

谢谢先生，谢谢。您清楚地解释了“自由市场经济”、“保护主义”和西方文化民主之间的关系以及它们是多么容易变成“东方的肚皮舞者”，这就是几个世纪以来的情况。

@dabo5078
Japan is the most indebted nation in the world. China doesn’t even rank top10 and is in fact one of the biggest creditor nations

日本是世界上负债最多的国家。中国甚至排不到前十名，它实际上是世界上最大的债权国之一。

@benganchan1420
In China's 5,000 years of history, it must have collapsed 50 times . The last time it collapsed was when generalissimo chiang kai shake of ruling party kuomingtang in 1949 and hightailed it to taiwan and proclaimed it as republic of China ����. That was in 1949 when the population of China was 500,000,000, today it's 1,400,000,000 so it must go the Chinese communist party credit that it has done well

在中国五千年的历史中，它崩溃过50次。上一次崩溃是1949年，蒋介石总司令动摇了执政党国民党的统治，他火速逃往台湾（地区）并宣布台湾（地区）为中华民国。那是在1949年，当时中国的人口是5亿，而今天的人口是14亿，所以中国gcd做得棒。

@gordongu6705
i don’t quite agree with him, China’s supply side investment is fueled by relentless borrowing from government sector. The government investment is notorious for its inefficiency. The result would be a huge debt of government and limited improvement for society

我不太同意他的观点，中国的供给侧投资是由政府部门的不懈借贷推动的。政府投资的低效率是出了名的，其结果将是政府债台高筑，社会改善有限。

@psikeyhackr6914
So you believe the 5.2! Why do I hear 5.3 other places and see videos of closed stores and empty malls?

所以你相信中国的经济增长率是5.2%！为什么我在其他地方听到的是5.3%，但看到的是关闭的商店和空荡荡的商场的视频？

@user-co6vr9es9n
If you wish, you can film videos in any country to prove your point. Frankly speaking, China's economy is worse than before, but not because of us. The global economy is extremely difficult, people lack the money to buy our products, and we are at war with the United States. This is why we choose peace. We say we love peace, and that might be true, but more importantly, peace and prosperity enrich people in other countries. When people have money to buy our products, we don't plunder or steal. We aren't arms dealers. Peace benefits us more than war.

如果你愿意，你可以在任何国家，拍摄视频去证明观点。坦白来说，中国的经济比以前更差，但不是因为我们自己，因为全球的经济都非常困难，人们没有钱购买我们的产品，我们和美国正在战争。这是我们选择和平的原因，我们说我们喜欢和平，可能是正确的，但更重要的是，和平和繁荣会让其他国家的人富有，人们有钱购买我们的产品，我们不掠夺，偷窃，我们不是武器商，和平比战争对我们更有益。

@beadingstation
China has been reported collapsing every single year for almost 30 years, and been collapsing all the way up to the second largest economy today. Thank you, keep on
1990. The Economist: China's economy has come to a halt.
1996. The Economist: China's economy will face a hard landing
1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
2003. KWR International: How to find a soft landing if China..
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
2010. Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011. Business Insider: Why A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
2012. American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing
2013. Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing..
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash?
2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis
2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started?
2022. Cathie Wood: China's COLLAPSE Is FAR Worse Than You Think
2022. Business Basics: China's Economic Crisis, GDP is Crashing, Protests Everywhere. China's financial crisis is
Here.
2023. Bloomberg News: China's Economic Woes Are Multiplying

近30年来，每年都有中国经济崩溃的报道，并一路崩溃到今天的第二大经济体。谢谢，请继续：
1990. 经济学人：中国经济已陷入停滞。
1996. 经济学人：中国经济将面临硬着陆
1998. 经济学人：中国经济进入增长乏力的危险时期
1999. 加拿大银行：中国经济硬着陆的可能性
2000. 芝加哥论坛报：中国货币动向为硬着陆风险盖棺定论

2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas：中国的硬着陆
2002. 韦斯特切斯特大学：中国焦虑地寻求经济软着陆
2003. KWR International：中国如何实现软着陆？
2004. 经济学人：中国的伟大衰落？
2005. 努里埃尔-鲁比尼 中国经济硬着陆的风险
2006. 国际经济：中国能否实现软着陆？
2007. 时代周刊：中国经济是否过热？中国能否避免硬着陆？

2008. 福布斯：中国经济硬着陆？
2009. 财富》杂志：中国的硬着陆，中国必须找到复苏之路
2010. 努里埃尔-鲁比尼：中国即将硬着陆
2011. 商业内幕：为什么中国经济硬着陆可能比你想象的更近
2012. 美国利益：来自中国的令人沮丧的经济消息：硬着陆
2013. 零对冲：中国经济硬着陆
2014. CNBC：中国的硬着陆
2015. 福布斯：恭喜你，中国经济硬着陆。

2016. 经济学人：中国经济硬着陆迫在眉睫
2017. 国家利益：中国经济会崩溃吗？
2020. 经济学解读：中国债务危机的可怕解决方案
2021. 全球经济：中国的衰落开始了吗？
2022. 凯茜-伍德：中国的崩溃远比你想象的严重
2022. 商业基础知识：中国经济危机，GDP崩溃，抗议无处不在，中国的金融危机正在
来临
2023. 彭博新闻社：中国的经济困境正在加剧