谁杀死了苹果汽车？

 
 
 
Project Titan, Apple’s secretive car program, has been canceled. The tech giant spent billions of dollars over the past decade as part of a grandiose plan to upturn the car industry in the same way the iPhone revolutionized mobile phones. There was an abortive effort to buy Tesla, a design inspired by the old Volkswagen bus and plans to team up with Mercedes-Benz, BMW and others.
But last month, Apple quietly abandoned the car project. Bloomberg News goes under the hood of Project Titan to reveal what the company was planning and explain why it ultimately fell apart.
 
代号“泰坦”（Project Titan）的苹果秘密造车计划最终宣告流产。这家科技巨头在过去十年砸下数十亿美元，试图像当年iPhone颠覆手机行业一样重塑汽车产业。他们曾尝试收购特斯拉但无果而终，其设计灵感源自大众经典面包车，还计划与梅赛德斯-奔驰、宝马等车企合作。
然而上个月，苹果悄然终止了这个汽车项目。彭博社深入挖掘“泰坦计划”的内幕，揭秘苹果的造车蓝图，并剖析其最终失败的原因。
 
 
@bakerkawesa
They realized they couldn't achieve the astronomical profit margins they're accustomed to.
 
他们意识到无法获得惯常的天文数字般利润。
 
@oisinquinn9469
Its a low margin business that takes like 15 years to produce profitably. Apple does high margin businesses.
 
这是一个利润微薄的行业，需15年才能盈利，而苹果专注于高利润业务。
 
@pji1979
They had one look at Rivian's balance sheet and income statement. That was enough.
 
他们看了眼Rivian的资产负债表和损益表，就足够了。
 
@hydrohasspoken6227
What am i missing here?
xiaomi has much less cash than Apple and started the car project much late.
Is this a case of chasing perfection instead of focusing to finish the job at hand?
 
我漏掉了什么？
小米的资金远少于苹果，造车项目启动得也晚得多。
这是否属于追求完美而忽视眼前的任务？
 
@DeeepXXX
They has Chinese supply chain and Chinese EV market which is the biggest in the world.
 
他们拥有中国供应链和全球最大的中国电动汽车市场。
 
@yourcrazybear
@DeeepXXX "They has Chinese supply chain and Chinese EV market which is the biggest in the world."
So? Apple could have produced a car if they wanted to.
 
@DeeepXXX "他们拥有中国供应链和全球最大的中国电动汽车市场。"
那又如何？苹果真想造车也能造。
 
@jonaboy3
@yourcrazybear Could they have produced a compelling car that fits in the ecosystem, at a profit, without the huge China subsidies? No.
 
@yourcrazybear 没有中国的巨额补贴，他们能造出既融入生态系统又盈利的吸引人车型吗？不能。
 
@SajanKumar-mx2jg
If you see from apple perspective every product they create is not allowed to work correctly and repairable by third party and that is way harder to implement in automotive industry, I think this is one of the major reason.
 
从苹果的角度看，他们所有的产品都不允许第三方正常使用或维修，而要在汽车行业实现这种封闭性要困难得多——我认为这是主要的原因之一。
 
@1flash3571
@yourcrazybear Car business is a HIGH CAPITAL COST business. Apple don't deal with those kinds of business model. Car companies like Toyota, Ford, and GM and VW have a VERY HIGH DEBT in the 10s of BILLIONS in debt. VW have around 160 to 230 Billion dollars in debt. That is around what Apple has in their reserves and not much debt. It is opposite of what they do.
 
@yourcrazybear 汽车业是超高资本密集型产业。苹果从不涉足这类商业模式。丰田、福特、通用和大众等车企都背负了数百亿美元债务——仅大众就欠债1600-2300亿美元，这相当于苹果的全部现金储备。苹果几乎零负债，与车企的运营模式完全相反。
 
@yourcrazybear
@jonaboy3 "@yourcrazybear Could they have produced a compelling car that fits in the ecosystem, at a profit, without the huge China subsidies? No."
Yes they could have.
 
@jonaboy3 "没有中国巨额补贴，他们能造出既融入生态系统又盈利的吸引人车型吗？不能。"
不，他们完全可以做到。
 
@JiajuChen
I think the weirdest situation for apple is that, to build an autonomous driving car, you really need a lot of data, and apple isn't willing to sell the car without selfdriving capabilities first. Testing only with your own team really can't match the real consumers testing.
 
苹果最尴尬的处境在于：研发自动驾驶汽车需要海量的数据，但他们又不愿意先推出非自动驾驶车型。仅靠内部团队测试，根本无法媲美真实用户的使用数据。
 
@Hans-gb4mv
i disagree. Almost all manufacturers have designed their system so far without acquiring massive amounts of driving data from their customers. Tesla is the only exception and they are not really ahead in the market compared to that competition.
The big issue imho is the goal they had set. Level 5 autonomy is still a long time away. We won't see it this decade and the industry is already shifting away from the promise of driverless cars and pivoting once again towards level 3.
 
我不同意。事实上多数厂商设计系统时都未依赖海量用户的驾驶数据，特斯拉只是一个特例，而且其市场优势也并不明显。
关键的问题在于目标设定——L5级自动驾驶仍遥不可及，未来十年都难以实现。行业已开始放弃完全自动驾驶的承诺，重新转向L3级。
 
@f4rr3r
According to the Tesla model, you need a lot of data. LiDAR based autonomy requires a lot less training.
 
按照特斯拉的模式需要海量的数据，而基于激光雷达的自动驾驶系统所需的训练数据则少得多。
 
@marcusaurelius49
It never ceases to amaze me the hubris of the techies to think that because they can build a phone or software, they can replicate their success in other industries just because they think they are so smart. Wrong, wrong, wrong.
 
这些科技精英的傲慢总让我感到惊叹——以为能造手机或软件就能在其他行业复制成功，只因为他们自认聪明绝顶。这大错特错。
 
@f4rr3r
xiaomi and Google both seem to be doing okay �� Even Apple could have entered the market in a big way if they had stayed committed to the idea of being a third party provider of infotainment software and autonomous driving systems.
 
小米和谷歌似乎都做得不错。苹果如果坚持做车载娱乐系统和自动驾驶方案的第三方供应商，本可大举进军该市场。
 
@SeekPeace1
They saw how much pain Elon Musk went through, and thought fck that, and decided to pivot to generative AI, a direction more in line with Apple's core strengths and products synergy.
 
他们目睹了埃隆·马斯克的艰辛历程后心想"去他的"，转而投向生成式AI——这更符合苹果的核心优势与产品协同效应。
 
@herewego9767
Isn't it ironic that the biggest company in the world finds innovation too expensive to pursue? Meanwhile, Huawei has an electric car. I want to hear more about how capitalists are the main drivers of innovation without government socialist assistance.
 
讽刺的是全球市值最高的公司竟然觉得创新的成本太高？而华为却造出了电动汽车。那些鼓吹"资本家才是创新主力，无需政府社会主义援助"的人该作何解释？
 
@zulucoyote2731
One way to look at this project's failure is from the perspective of Simon Sinks "Start With Why." It seems to me that in this project Apple started with the product that they wanted to make (a car or "the what") instead of figuring out the problem they were trying to solve. This lead to the wide and changing focus of the project. Essentially, they were focused on creating a product that they already envisioned and not solving a problem or creating a solution. They started with 'we want to make an Apple car' and not 'how do we make the driving experience better for individuals.'
 
从西蒙·斯涅克《从为什么开始》的角度看这个项目的失败：苹果从一开始就执着于要造什么（汽车），而非解决什么问题。这导致项目的目标不断摇摆——他们只想实现预设的产品构想，而非创造解决方案。他们的出发点不是"如何提升个人驾驶体验"，而是"我们要造苹果汽车"。
 
@Prockski
From what I saw of the plans, it would def be a car for someone like me. A self driving car built for comfort that fits in to Apple’s ecosystem? Sounds great.
 
就我看到的方案，这款车完全是我的菜。一辆融入苹果生态的舒适型自动驾驶汽车？听着就很棒。
 
@Tazmanian_Ninja
They were not working on a car. It was a decoy'ish type of "project". Was always intended to be something else.
 
他们根本没有造车。这只是一个烟雾弹式的"项目"，其真实的目标另有其他。
 
@kiuk_kiks
Why didn’t they just build a normal car that can take you from A to B then try and piggyback off that product with more innovations such as autonomous driving? They had too much money sloshing around their accounts and needed to bleed a few billion dollars it seems.
 
为何不先造一辆普通的代步车，再逐步添加自动驾驶等创新？看来是账上现金太多，非得烧掉几十亿才舒服。
 
@ingaz6565
Musk said in an interview that several years ago when Tesla was in the mist of its Model 3 nightmare, trying desperately to ramp up production while burning through its cash reserves, he reached out to Tim Cook to see if he would be interested in buying Tesla. Cook refused to take the call. I bet he wishes he hadn't decided so brashly.
 
马斯克曾透露数年前特斯拉深陷Model 3产能地狱、现金储备告急时，他联系过蒂姆·库克询问收购意向，却被拒接电话。现在库克肯定肠子都悔青了。
 
@dwylhq874
Apple should have bought Tesla when they had the chance. Yes, it’s nowhere near the Margin of an iPhone, but with the Supercharger network open to all EVs Tesla will have epic cash flow.
 
苹果当初真的应该收购特斯拉。虽然其利润率远不及iPhone，但超级充电网络向所有电动汽车开放后，特斯拉将拥有惊人的现金流。
 
@novanhazard9625
There is a major difference btn the tech and automotive industry. Fierce competition, variety of consumer preferences and business models and Market cap makes the Automotive industry far more complex, difficult and full of losses
 
科技与汽车行业天差地别。激烈的竞争、多元的消费者偏好、复杂的商业模式，以及市值规模，使得汽车行业更加艰难且亏损风险极高。
 
@xdonnix
The fact that Apple were willing to roll the dice on the Vision Pro but don't see a future in EVs really speaks volumes about the reality of the EV market and where it is headed without government support.
 
苹果敢押注Vision Pro却放弃电动汽车，充分说明了没有政府支持的电动汽车市场的现状与未来走向。
 
@harrysho8187
As a former Apple enthusiast and a millennial born in the mid-90s (my primary devices are now all Huawei; I don't want to deal with the hassle anymore, plus some features are really thoughtful), I was deeply moved by how Steve Jobs' iPhone and MacBook Air changed the rules of consumer electronics. I was also captivated by the Zen-like, postmodern aesthetic of Apple products that offered a comfortable and serene experience, along with hidden yet exquisitely crafted functionalities. Of course, these qualities are fading now; the features are becoming bloated, the signal is routinely weak, and there's a lack of distinctiveness and the kind of beauty that once brought tranquility. However, before seeing this video, I had no idea of the extent of the chaos within Apple.
 
作为上世纪90年代中期出生的前苹果发烧友（现在主力设备全换华为了，我既不想折腾又欣赏其人性化设计），我曾被乔布斯的iPhone和MacBook Air改写消费电子规则的壮举深深震撼，也痴迷于苹果产品那种带来舒适宁静体验的禅意后现代美学，以及隐藏却精妙的功能设计。当然这些特质正在消退——功能越发臃肿、信号持续不佳、独特性与那份带来宁静的美感已然不再。但在看这个视频前，我完全没有想到苹果的内部已混乱至此。
 
@hone_w
I really don't see how the Vision Pro will replace the iPhone. They're both very different categories, meant for very different purposes even if they're meant for an Apple and iPhone customer. The Vision Pro will most likely be an extension of a computer than replace the iPhone. Just my 200 cents.
 
哇实在看不出Vision Pro如何取代iPhone。即便目标用户相同，这两者也是用途迥异的产品类别。Vision Pro更可能是电脑的延伸而非手机的替代品。以上纯属个人浅见。
 
@Ozvideo1959
I think Apple bailed because they've seen EV demand decrease and most automakers have lost billions betting on a widespread acceptance of EV's, which hasn't happened.
 
苹果的退出是因为看到电动汽车的需求下滑，多数车企押注电动汽车普及却血亏数十亿，预期中的盛况并未出现。
 
@ruzzelladrian907
They probably figured that if they hire Foxconn or other manufacturers to manufacture their car, it wouldn't be profitable enough. They're very particular with having high profit margins on each product they sell, so I'm guessing the profit margins for a car wasn't enough. Take for example NIO, they make the software and designs in-house, but contract a manufacturer, like JAC Motors, to manufacture their NIO cars. Of course, JAC has to make a profit off each car to justify manufacturing one, and NIO has to profit off their car, too. What NIO gets is an expensive car they have to sell, but they can't make it too expensive, or no one will buy it. So they have to lower it to make it appealing, but they sacrifice on profit margins.
Only Tesla right now has the highest profit margins on each car they sell, because they did not just vertically integrate their designs and software, but also the manufacturing of the cars themselves by owning their own factories. Apple could do the same as Tesla, by building their own factory, but that must've been too complicated for them to justify the initial investment costs associated with building their own factory from scratch, as they're used outsourcing to Foxconn.
Maybe Apple will do the Apple TV way? We've heard of rumors about an Apple TV, not the box, for almost two decades now , and the rumors were high around 2010 - 2014. The reason Apple won't make a TV is because the TV market's profit margins is paper thin. Not worth it for Apple, so they made a TV box with Apple software in it, and sell it for $150. So maybe Apple will just partner with car brands to use their software for a fee.
 
苹果可能盘算过，如果委托富士康等代工造车，其利润空间将十分有限。这家公司向来追求单品高利润率，显然汽车达不到他们的标准。以蔚来为例：虽然他们自主研发软件和设计，但制造环节外包给江淮汽车。江淮需要单车有一定利润才愿意代工，蔚来也需要盈利。结果就是造出来的车成本高昂，而定价又不能太高，否则无人问津，最终只能降价求销量，牺牲利润率。
目前唯有特斯拉的单车利润率最高，因其不仅垂直整合了设计和软件，还通过自建工厂掌控了制造环节。苹果本可效仿特斯拉自建工厂，但这对于习惯外包给富士康的苹果来说，初期建厂投入的成本过高、回报难料。
或许苹果会采取Apple TV的模式？近二十年来，关于苹果将推出电视机（而非机顶盒）的传闻不断，尤其在2010-2014年间甚嚣尘上。苹果不做电视的根本原因在于该市场利润薄如纸，所以他们转而推出内置了苹果软件的机顶盒，售价150美元。说不定苹果最终会选择与车企合作，通过授权软件收费获利。
 
@zollen123
Apple is seeing its competitors are getting ahead and overshadowing their smartphones and electric cars markets. This feels like Macintosh & Newton early 90s era all over again.
 
苹果正目睹竞争对手在智能手机和电动汽车市场后来居上，这恍如上世纪90年代初麦金塔和牛顿掌上电脑历史的重演。
 
@4kdreams402
Honestly, it kinda makes sense. Apple is the only one who hasn't anounced anything big AI related while Samsung is kinda dominating that field for the moment.
Would have loved to see an Apple car, but the smartphone business is what prints money the easy way for them.
 
说实话这很合理。当三星暂居AI领域主导地位时，苹果却是唯一没有发布重大AI成果的巨头。
虽然很想看到苹果汽车，但智能手机业务才是他们的轻松印钞机。
 
@HolloMatlala1
Something is Wrong with large Tech Companies like Google,Apple,Meta and Microsoft if most of their new products over the past 10 years that where invented in-house didn't become market share success compared to their acquired New IPO companies or divisions or Tech division started by other co-founders.
 
谷歌、苹果、Meta和微软等科技巨头显然出了问题——过去十年间，他们自主研发的新产品多数未能赢得市场，反倒不如收购的初创公司或其他联合创始人创建的部门成功。
 
@texaswunderkind
Apple was testing a cute little city car in Austin about eight years ago. I remember seeing one stranded in a city park, and took photos while it was loaded into a trailer. The closest thing to it on the market was the Smart Car. I don't see photos of it on this video, and a Google Image search also fails to show it. I might have captured spy photos more unique than I realized at the time.
 
八年前苹果曾在奥斯汀测试过一款迷你城市车。我亲眼见过一辆被遗弃在公园里，还拍下了它被装上拖车的照片。市面上最接近的是Smart汽车，但本视频和谷歌图片都找不到相关的影像——我当年拍到的可能是绝版间谍照。
 
@snebold
The Apple car was never going to happen for the simple reason that Apple has no experience in manufacturing. They don't make any of the hardware they sell, and in order to sell cars they couldn't just outsource manufacturing to China. Some might say "well, what about Tesla? They had no experience in manufacturing either and they're doing okay." That's only because of the relentless drive of Elon Musk. And despite that, Tesla nearly went bankrupt trying to ramp the Model 3. Apple missed their one opportunity to get into the car business when Cook refused to take Musk's call at that time.
 
苹果造车本就不可能，因为他们毫无制造经验。他们现有的硬件全是代工，而汽车制造无法简单地外包给中国。有人会说"特斯拉当初不也没经验？"但这全靠马斯克的偏执推动——即便如此，特斯拉量产Model 3时也险些破产。当库克拒接马斯克电话时，苹果就错失了入局汽车业的唯一机会。
 
@lolechi
Apple realised that self-driving technology wasn't ready yet, and didn't want to try create it themselves, so they shelved the project. As expected from the company that hasn't created anything new in the last 20 years.
 
苹果意识到自动驾驶技术尚未成熟，又不愿意自主研发，于是搁置了项目。这家过去20年毫无创新的公司做出这种决定毫不意外。
 
@BartSimpson-o5f
This makes alot of sense as to why they shifted to AI and VR "Spatial Computing". This could actually be beneficial in 3 ways. 1.) Apple helps build better AI models for the infrastructure that maybe others in the industry are missing. 2.) Apple helps popularize VR which they're doing right now for the average consumer market which is going to focus more attention on VR and it's future as well as help build things in VR that are much needed with apples budget. 3.) Apple will be the reason VR becomes an at home, at work and on the go necessity to replace or even be another option other than using a smart phone, tablet, laptop, or tv. Oculus started it, Meta made it better and affordable, Valve improved on the possibilities, Apple can bring it home or maybe Valve might enter again wwith the deckard on the way.
 
他们转向AI和VR"空间计算"确实合理，这可能在三个方面带来好处：
苹果可构建业界缺失的基础设施AI模型
苹果正在推动VR大众化，其投入将吸引更多关注并完善VR生态
苹果可能让VR成为家庭、办公和移动场景中替代/补充手机、平板、笔记本和电视的必需品
Oculus开创先河，Meta实现普及，Valve拓展可能，而苹果或将完成临门一脚——当然Valve也可能带着Deckard再次入场。
 
@douglaswatt1582
Grandiosity is the right word to describe what's at the base of this failure. Or more precisely the intersection between incompetence and grandiosity. The notion that somehow apples software chops was going to allow them to build a vehicle in an area of technology in which they had no, and I do mean zero competence, manufacturing, or technical abilities was always at best a leap of wishful thinking. It's nice to see Tim Cook eat some Crow because he's been bragging about this for years. Anybody who knew anything about Vehicles knew this was a doomed project unless they hired Talent from somebody who actually knew how to make cars as opposed to watches and cell phones. The other screaming red flag was that they never produced a real prototype. What's particularly damning is that it took them 10 years to admit that they had no idea what they were doing. I wonder how many hundreds of millions of dollars that group chewed through chasing a fantasy?
 
"好高骛远"恰如其分地解释了失败的根源，更准确说是无能加狂妄的结合。苹果妄想用软件优势弥补其在汽车制造领域——我必须强调——完全空白的技术能力，充其量只是痴心妄想。看蒂姆·库克这些年吹嘘后自打脸实在是痛快。但凡懂车的人都明白，除非从真正的汽车制造商（而非做手表手机的）挖人才，否则这个项目注定会失败。另一个危险的信号是他们从未造出真实的 原型车。最讽刺的是他们花了十年才承认自己毫无头绪——不知道这个团队追逐幻想烧掉了多少亿美元？
 
@TadashiBM
To become a car maker, one has to have a deep passion for cars. However, Apple, being a technology company, doesn't seem to have that passion. If they did, they would have pursued a path similar to Tesla's, where they almost went bankrupt but didn't give up. Apple is merely looking for a new source of revenue. When they realized that achieving their goals would be quite challenging and expensive, with margins not reaching 20-30%, they gave up.
 
要成为汽车制造商，必须对汽车怀有深厚的热忱。但作为科技公司的苹果显然缺乏这种热爱——否则就会像特斯拉那样即使濒临破产也不放弃。苹果只是在寻找新的财源，当发现实现目标既艰难又昂贵、利润率达不到20-30%时，便果断放弃了。
 
@-PORK-CHOP-
Apple: You want doors, sorry doors are not included, Customer: What size battery does it have, Apple: sorry !, umm we just derated it without telling you, Customer: what size did it have, that will cost you extra to know that, Customer: Excuse me there is no steering wheel but it does not have FSD, Apple: oh about that, the steering wheel is not included but we can add one in for a small fee of $9850, Customer: that seems expensive why, Apple: Because we can
 
苹果：要车门？抱歉需要单独购买
顾客：电池容量多大？
苹果：呃...我们刚偷偷降配了
顾客：那原来容量多少？
苹果：查询需额外付费
顾客：没方向盘却无全自动驾驶？
苹果：方向盘选装价9850美元
顾客：太贵了吧？
苹果：因为我们能这么定价