印度股市泡沫即将破灭？
Is India's Stock Market a Bubble About to Burst?
译文简介
我不确定股票是否估值过高,但印度的房地产绝对是被高估了，因为平均房价与美国的房屋成本相差无几。大量未申报的资金正源源不断涌入印度的房地产行业。
正文翻译
我不确定股票是否估值过高,但印度的房地产绝对是被高估了，因为平均房价与美国的房屋成本相差无几。大量未申报的资金正源源不断涌入印度的房地产行业。
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@Happy-soul-96 (modified)
I don't know whether stocks are over valued or not. Indian real estate is definitely over value. Avg home cost is little less or more than cost of homes in usa. Insane amount of unaccounted money following into real estate sector in India.
我不确定股票是否估值过高,但印度的房地产绝对是被高估了，因为平均房价与美国的房屋成本相差无几。大量未申报的资金正源源不断涌入印度的房地产行业。
No friend you are wrong. I tell you briefly why. In US you can live in hundreds of cities and still get a decent job. In India you have to move to some 5-6 cities for a job. So where is any Tamil going to by home, not in some beautiful coastal town,but in Chennai. Same with Mumbai, Gurgaon, Pune. In next 10 years crores of young people will move there so the prices are going to be increase. Supply is limited. Demand is not. Tell me where is any Telugu NRI who wants to invest going to buy. Not in machlipuram, but in Hyderabad. Any one in UP who gets rich some how, wants to buy a house in Noida or Delhi.
朋友，你错了。让我简单说明原因。在美国你生活在数百个城市中，仍然可以找到体面的工作，而在印度你只能搬去5-6个城市找工作。所以泰米尔人会在哪里买房？不会是某个美丽的海滨小镇，而一定是金奈。孟买、古尔冈、浦那的情况也是如此。未来10年将有数千万年轻人涌入这些城市，所以房价势必会上涨。供给是有限的，而需求却是无限的。告诉我哪个海外泰卢固裔投资者会买马奇利帕特姆的房子？他们只会选择海德拉巴。任何北方邦的暴发户，都会想在诺伊达或德里购置房产。
And this is after US real estate being called overvalued. Indian real estate is obnoxiously high. This is where inheritance tax should be applied, especially for real estate mafia/families.
这还是在人们已经认为美国房地产被高估的情况下。印度房地产的价格简直高得离谱，这正是应该征收遗产税的领域，特别是针对那些房地产黑手党/家族。
the real estate is overvalued because the capital is mostly provided by rich Indians or nris who are just speculating for gains. it have become an speculation vehicle without any grounding to actual spending power of indian people.
房地产被高估是因为资金主要来自富裕的印度人或海外印裔，他们纯粹是为了投机获利。这已经变成了一种投机工具，与印度民众的实际购买力完全脱节。
The inequality of wealth in India is now showing in the form of decreasing consumer demand.
印度日益严重的财富不平等正通过消费需求下降的形式显现出来。
In the past 7 days, he just suggested over 15 stocks in unlisted, defense, market crash, etc., and kept saying, Think long-term. How can we trust him if he keeps changing his stock every month and saying it is looking attractive ?
过去7天里，他就推荐了超过15只未上市的股票，包括国防股、崩盘概念股等，他还一直说"要长期持有"。如果他每个月都换股票还说看起来很诱人，我们怎么能相信他？
I don't seem to wrap my head around these terms, and that's why i just leave it to the market experts to handle.
我实在搞不懂这些专业术语，所以干脆交给市场专家去处理。
Bloomberg should worry about the US stock market. Look at the P/E ratios of most of the US companies and look at the Indian economy's growth rate. It is the most populous country with still a huge potential for growth. Nothing in the world can compare to the Indian opportunity.
彭博社应该多担心美国股市。看看大多数美国公司的市盈率，再看看印度经济的增长率。作为人口最多的国家，印度仍然具有巨大的增长潜力。世界上没有什么能比得上印度的机会。
20 percent Stcg and 15 percent ltcg tax is dragging Market down. No one is confidant that taxation will not grow further
20%的短期资本利得税和15%的长期资本利得税正在拖累市场，没有人敢保证税率不会进一步提高。
FII sold heavily, about 50 billion still they could bring down index only 15%. This month they had to short cover.
外国机构投资者大规模抛售约500亿美元，却只让指数下跌了15%。这个月他们不得不回补空头。
India is just starting..here 4-5 % people invest.. imagine when 50% start like USA.. bloomberg has no idea
印度才刚刚起步...这里只有4-5%的人投资...想象一下当像美国那样50%的人都投资时会如何...彭博社根本不懂印度。
50% are mainly just 401k accounts. Just because only 5% of indians have investment account doesn't mean its not overvalued.
50%主要是401k账户。不能仅仅因为只有5%的印度人有投资账户就说市场没有被高估。
Markets have already corrected and we have seen whole 7 month bear market so, thank you for your biased reporting
市场已经调整过了，我们经历了整整7个月的熊市，所以谢谢你有偏见的报道。
They are not biased that are pure liars. No journalist with self respect would continue to work for these guys
他们不是偏见，根本就是骗子。任何有自尊心的记者都不会继续为这些人工作。
India's big bull market just started.... Retail people should invest more and should not miss the bus..
印度的大牛市才刚刚开始......散户应该加大投资，不要错过这班车..
Investors overestimate Indian economy. Indian companies under-deliver their profits. Yes, the investment is a bubble.
投资者高估了印度经济。印度公司的利润表现不佳。是的，这就是个投资泡沫。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Remember guys this video is the point where the current lows will be made. You should start buying now.
记住，伙计们，这个视频发布的时候就是市场触底的时候，你们现在就应该开始买入。
I haven't seen Bloomberg do a similar video when it comes to Nasdaq, every tech share out there in the US is in historical bubble range PE but but India is overvalued when it has 10x the growth potential sheerly because of its low scale compared to China or US.
我从来没有见过彭博社对纳斯达克做过类似的视频，美国每只科技股的市盈率都处于历史泡沫区间，而印度仅因为规模比中美小就被说成估值过高，尽管它有10倍的增长潜力。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
I'm probably naive but I would be inclined to believe that a crash in the US would induce a harder crash in some emerging economies due to the proportion of foreign investment and how much the growing service sector GDP share is tied to US tech companies, latter of which is especially critical in India's case.
The amount of traders and money that flows from and within the US is an anomaly too.
可能我太天真，但我倾向于认为美国崩盘会导致一些新兴经济体崩得更惨，因为外资占比太高，而且服务业占GDP的比重越来越大，这部分与美国科技公司关系密切，对印度来说尤其关键。
来自美国和美国内部的交易者和资金流动量也是个异常现象。
If you gamble, get ready to wiped out. The average PE of Nifty Index right now is approx 21-22 which is well below the 10 year historical average of 25. If you are buying profit making companies with reasonable valuations then you are doing great. Such a basic thing to know if you are in stock markets.
如果你在赌博，就要做好血本无归的准备。目前Nifty指数的平均市盈率约21-22倍，远低于25倍的10年历史均值。如果你买入的是估值合理的盈利公司，那就做得很好。这是股市投资的基本常识。
Overall, 51% of traders anticipate that this year will be favorable for stocks, mutual funds, and other equity-based investments, despite the high returns currently offered by Treasury yields and other safer, cash-like options. I'm actively seeking market opportunities that could generate $1 million ahead of my retirement target in 2025.
总体而言，51%的交易者预计今年股票、共同基金和其他权益类投资将表现良好，尽管国债的收益率和其他类似现金的安全选项目前正在提供高回报。我正在积极寻找市场机会，争取在2025年退休目标前赚到100万美元。
There is no bubble.
First-generation Indians, post 1947, focused more on stability, like buying houses, gold etc. So now, the next generation of Indians, armed with the stability provided by their parents of a roof over their head, see it best suited to invest in the market, to grow, along with its country.
Furthermore, DAX, the German index has literally doubled in the past year, but I dont see anyone calling that a bubble?
Why is it that when an Asian, or South-East Asian country grows financially, its often seen with the outlook of, "Oh, is that a bubble?"
I smell something, and its not equality.
根本不存在泡沫。
1947年后第一代印度人更注重稳定性，比如买房买黄金等。而现在，在父母提供了住房保障的情况下，新一代印度人认为最适合的投资方式就是进入股市，与国家共同成长。
况且，德国的DAX指数过去一年实际上翻了一番，怎么没有人说那是泡沫？
为什么每当亚洲或东南亚国家金融发展时，人们总是用"哦，这是泡沫吗？"的眼光看待？
我闻到了什么味道，而且绝对不是公平的味道。
The only bubble is US stock market. US is 30% of global GDP but 70% of Global Market Cap. It's inflated beyond any logical understanding. My suggestion, sell us and come to India (Just 1%) . More than that would be too much money for Indian Markets
真正的泡沫是美国股市。美国占全球GDP的30%却占全球市值的70%，这种膨胀已经超出任何合理的理解。我的建议是：卖出美股，转投印度（只需1%，再多的话印度市场就承受不了了）。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
US companies are more valued because people trust their life savings in US financial markets more than any other place. There's barely any corruption or random shock events
美国公司估值更高是因为人们更愿意将毕生积蓄托付给美国的金融市场，那里几乎没有腐败或突发性冲击事件。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Major issue is Regulatory body SEBI of Indian stock market!
There are many scams happening in market and SEBI failed to take strict actions on guilty rich people.
Retail invester is always getting thugged by fraudsters and SEBI's inaction.
On the other side, Indian Government is using retail investers as cash cow and putting heavy tax on stock market income.
主要的问题在于印度股市监管机构SEBI！
市场上诈骗频发，但SEBI却未能对犯罪的富人采取严厉的措施。
散户投资者总是被骗子坑害，而SEBI无所作为。
另一方面，印度政府把散户投资者当提款机，对股市收益课以重税。
India needs IT, strong supply chain management for vibrant economy and business, a higher standard of Real Estate development where common person can a nice home
印度需要IT产业、强大的供应链管理来振兴经济和商业，还需要更高标准的房地产开发让普通百姓也能住上好房子。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Look whose market is a bubble, Look who has the most debt to gdp, look who has the most external debt percentage, look at the market cap to gdp of countries, look who is entering into recession, LOOK.
看看谁的股市才是泡沫，看看谁的债务与GDP的比率最高，看看谁的外债比例最大，看看各国的市值与GDP的比率，看看谁正在步入衰退，好好看看吧。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Ahhh Chandni chowk, old delhi and crowded CST station, the only thing missing is that evergreen sitar music.... Would have been perfect for a video on Indian Stock Market. How awesome.
啊，月光集市、旧德里和拥挤的CST车站，唯一缺少的就是那永恒的西塔琴音乐了...这本该是制作印度股市视频的完美素材。太棒了。
1:23 - Trading accounts in India are at 200 Million.
Sounds like a big number but the adult population in India is somewhere between 70% to 75%. Roughly 1 billion+ adults and about 200 million accounts likely covering multiple accounts by a single person and at least some accounts being minor accounts managed by their parents / guardians. This means that there is at least a 3X - 4X more growth in the number of accounts left.
If there is a bubble right now, then it is only going to rapidly expand while occasionally popping and reforming.
1分23秒 - 印度的交易账户达2亿个。
虽然听起来很多，但印度的成年人口约占70%-75%，大约有10亿+成年人，约2亿账户可能包括一人多户，以及部分由父母/监护人管理的未成年人账户。这意味着账户的数量至少还有3-4倍的增长空间。
如果现在有泡沫，那它只会快速膨胀，偶尔破裂后又会重新形成。
You didn't address the recent low returns in bank FD rates. people have no other option but to invest in stocks.
你们没有提到银行定期存款利率最近很低。人们别无选择，只能投资股市。
A perfect all the negatives about India and india market.... They are doing what they do best pull down
视频完美罗列了印度和印度市场所有的负面因素...他们最擅长的就是唱衰。
given the amount of debt in the global financial system every stock market is a bubble waiting to burst.
考虑到全球金融体系的债务规模，每个股市都是等待破裂的泡沫。
The markets aren't overvalued on overall market levels. But, on an individual basis, I am seeing crazy valuations, which are 10 to even 50 times their fair values.
The P/B value of Nofty is around 3, and the market vide P/E is 20.48. Both these parameters are fairly valued or slightly undervalued. So, I don't find the market to be overvalued or overheated. Also, we are expected to see a next growth in the markets as the RBI is expected to lower Repo Rates, allowing for lower interest loans to businesses.
虽然从整体市场层面看估值并不高，但就个股而言，我看到了一些疯狂的估值，达到了合理价值的10倍甚至50倍。
Nifty的市净率约3倍，整体市盈率20.48倍，这两个参数都显示估值合理或略低。所以我不认为市场整体被高估或过热。而且随着印度央行可能下调回购利率，企业贷款利息降低，预计市场将迎来新一轮增长。
Those who come to market for "only" profits they will eventually reach there but those who come to become something in markets go bust eventually
那些只为"赚钱"而来的人终会如愿，但那些想在市场"成就一番事业"的人最终都会破产。
16% market correction. Just 16%. A market Index (NSE) which went from 7600 。。。 lows to a high of almost 26300. 16% market correction is quite normal to be honest. Calling Indian stock market 'a Bubble About to Burst' on the basis of a mere 16% correction is wishful thinking at best. Not surprising this coming from a failed American economy and its propaganda wings working overtime.
16%的市场回调，仅仅16%。一个从"c病毒"低点7600涨到近26300高点的市场指数(NSE)，16%的回调说实话很正常。仅凭16%的回调就说印度股市是"即将破裂的泡沫"，充其量是一厢情愿。来自失败的美国经济及其加班加点工作的宣传机构的这种论调并不令人意外。
The fact that real estate market is inaccessible to commoners should tell us a lot. The wealthy class knows about the stock bubble. They are parking their assets in the real estate, making it protected and pricing others out at the same time.
房地产对普通人遥不可及的事实很能说明问题。富裕阶层知道股市有泡沫，他们把资产配置到房地产，既保值又让其他人买不起。
Bear markets are never sweet in India they are BRUTAL and real economy has shrunk a lot.Most economy is financial now
印度的熊市从来都不温和，而是残酷的。印度的实体经济已经大幅萎缩，现在大部分经济都是金融经济。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
The stock market is often manipulated, serving as a tool for money laundering, political funding, and other questionable financial activities that benefit the powerful at the expense of the common investor.
股市经常被操纵，成为洗钱、政治献金和其他可疑金融活动的工具，这些活动让权贵受益，却让普通的投资者买单。
Overconfidence and over liquidity is going to make the bubble burst. Exports aren't rising. Declining consumption is becoming a cause of worry for the corporates. This is also leading to a tepid private investment.
过度自信和流动性过剩将导致泡沫破裂。出口没有增长。消费下降正成为企业担忧的问题。这也导致私人投资疲软。
The richest 100 families in India owned almost everything in India.
The stock mart is their playground.
They would play pump and dump.
Indias economy had not had great growth the last few decades.
It will zig zag along on the sideway .
印度最富有的100个家族几乎拥有印度的一切。
股市是他们的游乐场。
他们玩着拉高出货的把戏。
过去几十年印度经济并没有巨大的增长。
它只会在横盘震荡中曲折前进。
To embrace India's unpredictability is to embrace her soul. India is a game of numbers and scale, not magnitude.
接受印度的不可预测性就是接受她的灵魂，印度是数字和规模而非体量的游戏。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
You're talking about Equity? i can sell my 3-acre farm land (Dhar jila madhya pradesh around 60-75 lac per acre price here) and buy around 100-acre farm land for the same amount in the USA (I saw a US farmer's video speaking about land prices going up, and did some calculations, and it was nothing compared to India!) Black money is really a deeper problem then people realize, almost all the black money in India is invested in property. it's stopping the masses from buying their dream house and owning property.
你们在说股票？我可以卖掉我3英亩的农田(中央邦达尔县，这里每英亩约60-75万卢比)，用同样的钱在美国买约100英亩农田(我看过一个美国农民谈论地价上涨的视频，计算后发现跟印度没法比！)黑钱问题比人们意识到的更严重，印度几乎所有的黑钱都投在了房地产上，这阻碍了大众购买梦想住宅和拥有房产。
Whenever a westen media house publishes a story about India, we Indians brush it aside. But when housewives are getting into stock markets, we all need to worry
每当西方媒体报道印度，我们印度人总是一笑置之。但当家庭主妇都开始炒股时，我们所有人都该警惕了。
If Indians have money to invest it is too bad that it can't be directed toward improving infrastructure. Perhaps companies could raise money in the stock market to fund projects that would get paid back with rents of some kind.
如果印度人有投资的钱，却不能用于改善基础设施就太糟糕了。也许企业可以通过股市融资来投资项目，用某种租金收益来偿还。
The funny thing is that this makes middle class Indians think they are finally a part of the financial system of the wealthy where they can make money from their savings, or inheritance. A few might but the vast majority will lose to large traders. Also, the gross extraction from the market will never be their favour. It is a mathematical impossibility.
可笑的是这让印度中产以为他们终于进入了富人的金融体系，可以通过储蓄或遗产赚钱。虽然少数人可能成功，但绝大多数人会输给大交易商。而且，从市场抽走的资金永远不会对他们有利，这在数学上就不可能。
I don't know but just last 5 days stock went up by 10% so I think the timing of the video is wrong
US stock Market is falling faster than anticipated
Indian and Chinese Market is growing
Less than 2% of Indians actually trade compare to 60% in US so there is lot to growth
Americans should be concerned of America more than India
我不知道，但就在过去5天股市涨了10%，所以我认为这个视频的时机不对。
美国股市的下跌速度比预期快。
印度和中国的市场在增长。
实际参与交易的印度人不到2%，而美国是60%，所以增长的空间很大。
美国人应该多关心美国而不是印度。
In Russia, you can't buy options or futures unless you are a qualified investor, which means either you possess significant assets or have an economics degree. It's crazy that India has allowed to trade this stuff by anyone.
在俄罗斯，除非是合格的投资者(要么拥有大量资产，要么有经济学学位)，否则不能买卖期权期货。印度竟然允许任何人交易这些产品，这太疯狂了。
aren't you guys late by a few months, fundamentals have somewhat corrected in last few months and market has been on a uptrend and it has accounted for Tariff threat as sectors with US exposure have not bounce back, trading is a problem but they cant be conflated by investors who invest for the long term
你们不是晚了几个月吗？基本面在过去几个月已有所修正，市场处于上升趋势，并且已经消化了关税威胁(对美国敞口大的板块没有反弹)。虽然交易是个问题，但不能与长期投资者混为一谈。
There may be a time approaching where Indian markets get so much money poured in [causing them to be over valued] that we see a Japanese 1980s to 2020s slowdown in the Indian stock market
可能即将出现这样的情况：大量资金涌入印度市场[导致估值过高]，使印度股市像日本1980年代到2020年代那样陷入长期的低迷。
Whatever told in this video is 100% correct. but, this is just one side of coin and there's other side of coin that India is fastest growing economy in the world for years.
视频说的100%正确，但这只是硬币的一面，另一面是印度多年来一直是全球增长最快的经济体。
Rupee has bounced back, large companies have already corrected, speculative FnO trade are already all time low, Inflation is well below 4% and all other marco factors are now favorable.
So this video post by bloomberg is a few months late...
卢比已经反弹，大公司已经完成调整，投机性的期货期权交易量处于历史低位，通胀远低于4%，其他宏观因素也都向好。
所以彭博社这个视频发晚了几个月...
A key thing this video has missed is the surge in the market since the crash in March 2020. Young investors saw how steadily the market rose since then and have gone all-in. Most other theories are anecdotal/BS.
视频忽略了一个关键点：2020年3月崩盘后市场的暴涨。年轻的投资者看到此后市场稳步上涨，于是全仓投入。其他大多数理论都是道听途说/胡说八道。