"孩子太贵了！"泰国如何成为世界上老龄化速度最快的国家之一？（2）

@jnhkz
As someone whose born in Bangkok, does this mean that, in the future, most of the population would be more of lower-class than now? I mean, we need every class for the society to run smoothly. But if it's come out like that, in the end it would only be the lower-class and higher-class only. Middle-class would be gone.

作为一个出生在曼谷的人，这是否意味着在未来，大多数人口将比现在更属于下层阶级？我的意思是我们需要每个阶层的人，社会才能平稳运行。但如果是这样的话，到头来就只有下层阶级和上层阶级了，中产阶级将不复存在。

@tanjongmalim6869
The core problem is the parent in all developing and developed countries do not see better future for their kid.
Hence , no point reproducing

核心问题是所有的发展中国家和发达国家的家长都看不到孩子的美好未来。
因此，没有必要生孩子。

@Dominus_Potatus
The answers are same, "child is expensive", "child takes your time".
Do not have wrong impression with Indonesia's 2.1 birth rate. The numbers are carried by rurals in which it is uncommon for a woman to give birth to at least 3 children and sometimes 5 children.
In the urban, at most, a family only has 1 child, 2 children if wealthy.
It is impossible for a family to have a child with no help of family's member or one of parent gives up his/her job.
2 people earnings are just enough to live comfortably.
1 people earning is just enough.
1 people earning with a child is struggling, if there is a break such as covid-19, most won't recover financially.

答案都是一样的，"生孩子很贵"，"孩子需要你的时间"。
不要对印尼2.1的出生率产生误解。在印尼的农村地区，一名妇女至少生3个孩子，有时甚至生5个孩子的情况也并不鲜见。
而在城市，一个家庭最多只有1个孩子，如果家庭很富裕，则会有2个孩子。
一个家庭不可能在没有家庭成员帮助或父母一方不放弃工作的情况下生孩子。
两个人的收入刚刚够过上舒适的生活。
一个人的收入只够养活自己。
有1个孩子的人正在挣扎，如果出现诸如大流行这样的中断，大多数人在经济上都无法恢复。

@aiorlin8722
Is true middle to high economy wont have children anymore now especially in the city , when i was a kids my family is in middle economy i have like 20 cousins from both my mother and father side… know my kids only have 2 cousins (they are in age teen now) so i dont think the number will get risen soon… my kids only have cousin from their father side… while my side my big brother and his wife still dont want have kids , my little brother and his wife not yet deside having kids due still struggle in economy even their both office worker

现在中高经济水平的人都不会再要孩子了，尤其是在城市里。小时候，我的家庭属于中等经济水平，我有来自我父母双方的20个堂兄弟姐妹……但我的孩子只有2个表亲（他们现在都十几岁了），所以我不认为这个数字会很快增加......我的孩子只有来自他们父亲那边的表亲......而我这边，我的大哥和他的妻子仍然不想要孩子，我的小弟和他的妻子还没有想要孩子，因为他们仍然在经济方面挣扎，即使他们都是上班族。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

@eugeneinbangkok
One of the aspects not mentioned here is the "structural" factor that also made Thailand maintain its status as middle-income, the inability to evolve into a sector with better economic growth, as it's also a root cause why lot of Thais (including myself) decided not to have children.
Since the crisis of 1997 (nearly 30 years ago), Thailand's economic growth has depended on two major sectors: assembly industrial (e.g. automobile and electronics) and tourism. However, our industries are in decline not only due to China's role as a "global shophouse" that made us less and less competitive, but lots of our expertise (e.g. Hard Disk Drive, and Internal Combustion Cars) became obsolete products with even less export demand. Meanwhile, tourism is highly affected by various external factors such as the global economy or pandemic, and when something wrong occurs, a lot of Farangs, Japanese, and even Malays who would spend for their trip (by their own will or most of their time being scammed) vanish.
Looking at other "engines" to help drive our growth: agriculture, which employed one-third of Thai but contributed only one-tenth of GDP and still suffers with a lower yield than competitors (especially rice, even our are better); industries, not enough domestic capital, and technology to invest into high-tech such as biotech or robotics; service, maybe a bit better than Malaysia but much less "sexy" in terms of Geopolitics compared with Singapore. Not to mention that the Thai economy further being beaten down by the military regime for 8 years prior.
Without government spending (most of them were paid for salaries) and foreign investments (many being diverted to Vietnam), the Thai economy could hard to find what to stimulate growth. The ones I should blame other than the government are Thai companies. Looking at the Top 100 local companies, most of them are energy, banks, retail, and telecoms which they could not compete elsewhere. With oligopolistic (in the easy words "low competition") status under a sizeable domestic market, their growth and profits are secured without the need or pressure to create more jobs and innovation.
While those large companies do not care much about competitiveness (as they could export Baht to anywhere else) or wage hikes (as they could charge us later), many SMEs would suffer from several closures and job loss if they lose only "competitiveness" in terms of cheaper labor cost. Those structural deficiencies left Thailand struck with a "glass ceiling" that we could not increase wages for at least 11 years while inflation rose at 1-2 percent every month.
Bringing average income for local Thais (not you Farangs!) is about 7,350 THB for those who receive minimum wages and 15,000 THB for workers with college degrees. Thus, spending is nearly eaten out of the whole payroll. Bangkok and suburbs prices for cheap but not slum studio apartments cost about 4,000 THB per month, low nutrient but edible foods for 50 THB each meal, and two-hour bus transit from CBD to your room may cost about 100 THB daily. Even if you have eaten two meals a day, those already cost you 10,000 THB and you have to pay for electricity, phone bills, and even soap (as we Thais take a shower at least two times a day). This should explain why lots of Thais had no savings (and on the opposite, high rates of household debt), not speak about spending for hobbies, pets, kids, or parents living in outer provinces. Meanwhile, they have no alternative as most job opportunities that provide better pay are concentrated only in Bangkok and its suburbs, Eastern provinces of industrial estates, or traveler's destinations like Chiang Mai or Phuket.
On the other hand, the government became not capable to provide of adequate subsidies. As a Thai "middle-class", with my own qualification at least eligible to pay income tax which bottom threshold is earned at least 18,250 THB per month before deduction (that made them pay tax for 1 THB), considering only 4.7 out of 66 million Thais (you can blame this for shadow economy). This means the low proportion of citizens being paid for education, healthcare, and social welfare used by whole countries. Low pools of government income result in adequate services as you have to trade quality with coverages. Furthermore, some aspects of government services had to be paid individually. For example public elementary schools, the average ones cost you about 1,000 - 2,000 THB per semester but you have additional payment for books, stationery, and uniforms !!! which made you pay about 4,000 - 5,000 THB per child.
Meanwhile, seeking a better education that later would ensure you a job with a good income will cost a lot more due to hidden costs including housing (most of good schools concentrate in Bangkok), transport (to bring your kids from and to your suburb's houses), tutoring (many university exams require something more "intensive"), and other "social taxes" (to fit in with Bangkokian middle-class society). Even if you had a combined income of about 100,000 THB per month (equal to a couple of auditors - a breed who receive much higher than average income), it became a dilemma to use them for raising kids or saving them for retirement as government safety nets for elders are barely enough for adequate living standards and become more difficult if you suffered with NCDs after a retirement.
Even though we suffered minor problems of brain drain (as we absorb many Farangs, Japanese, and Chinese in exchange) and plenty of blue-collar workers from neighboring countries ready for a fill-up in labor-intensive works, solving Thailand's aging problems in the long-run could be possible only with a better economic structure that made ordinary Thai wealthier enough to spend more on elder and kids, and government obtain more taxes to subsidize someone who raises kids and taking care elder for us who don't have though.
Better reforms also help us Thai rather than struck into the middle-income trap that made us suffer with both first-world and third-world problems simultaneously, and what our government will do to help solve this for us is a single-shot injection for 10,000 baht and hope our Thai spend more, what a bullshit!

这里没有提到的一个方面是"结构性"因素，它也是泰国维持中等收入国家的地位，无法发展成为经济增长较好的国家的原因，它也是许多泰国人（包括我自己）决定不生育的根本原因。
自1997年危机（近30年前）以来，泰国的经济增长一直依赖于两大行业：装配工业（如汽车和电子产品）和旅游业。然而，我们的工业正在衰退，这不仅是因为中国作为"全球商店"的角色使我们的竞争力越来越弱，也因为我们的许多专业技术（如硬盘驱动器和内燃机汽车）已成为过时产品，出口需求更少。同时，旅游业受各种外部因素（如全球经济或大流行病）的影响很大，一旦出现问题，许多愿意为旅行消费的外国人、日本人甚至马来人（出于自己的意愿或大部分时间被骗）就会消失。
再看看其他有助于推动泰国经济增长的"引擎"：农业，泰国三分之一的人口从事农业，但农业对国内生产总值的贡献率仅为十分之一，而且泰国农业的产量仍然低于竞争对手（尤其是大米，即使我们的大米产量更高）；工业，国内资本和技术不足以投资于生物技术或机器人技术等高科技领域；服务业，也许比马来西亚好一点，但在地缘政治方面比新加坡差得多。更不用说泰国的经济在之前的8年中被军政权进一步打压。
如果没有政府支出（其中大部分用于支付工资）和外国投资（许多投资被转移到越南），泰国经济很难找到刺激增长的动力。除了政府，我还应该责怪泰国的企业。纵观排名前100位的本地公司，它们大多是能源、银行、零售和电信公司，在其他地方它们无法参与竞争。在国内市场规模庞大的情况下，由于寡头垄断（用简单的话说就是"低竞争"），它们的增长和利润都有了保障，因此无需也没有压力去创造更多的就业机会和创新。
虽然这些大公司并不太在意竞争力（因为他们可以将泰铢转移到其他任何地方）或工资涨幅（因为他们以后可以向我们收费），但如果许多中小企业在劳动力成本方面失去“竞争力”，它们将遭受数次倒闭和失业之苦。这些结构性缺陷使泰国遭遇了"玻璃天花板"，我们至少有11年不曾提高工资，而通货膨胀率却每月以1%-2%的速度上升。
领取最低工资的泰国人（不是你们这些外国人！）的平均收入约为7350泰铢，拥有大学学历的工人的平均收入约为15000泰铢。因此，消费几乎占去了他们的全部收入。曼谷和郊区廉价但并非贫民窟的单间公寓价格约为每月4000泰铢，低营养但可食用的食物每餐50泰铢，从中央商务区到您房间的两小时公交车每天可能要花费约100泰铢。即使您一天只吃两顿饭，也需要花费10000泰铢，而且您还得支付电费、电话费甚至肥皂费（因为我们泰国人一天至少洗两次澡）。这就解释了为什么很多泰国人没有储蓄（相反，家庭负债率却很高），更不用说为爱好、宠物、孩子或住在外省的父母花钱了。与此同时，他们别无选择，因为大多数薪酬较高的工作机会只集中在曼谷及其郊区、东部省份的工业区或清迈或普吉岛等旅游胜地。
另一方面，政府也没有能力提供足够的补贴。作为泰国的"中产阶级"，以我自己的资格至少有资格缴纳所得税，最低门槛是每月至少赚取18250泰铢（扣除前），但考虑到6600万泰国人中只有4.7人有资格缴纳所得税（你可以把这归咎于影子经济），这意味着公民为整个国家的教育、医疗保健和社会福利支付的比例很低。政府收入的低水平导致了服务的不足，因为你必须在质量和覆盖面之间进行权衡。此外，政府服务的某些方面必须由个人支付。例如，公立小学每学期的平均费用约为1000 - 2000泰铢，但你还需支付书本、文具和校服等额外的费用！这使得每个孩子的费用约为4000 - 5000泰铢。
与此同时，如果您想接受更好的教育以确保日后能找到一份收入不错的工作，那么您将需要支付更多的隐形费用，包括住房（大部分好学校都集中在曼谷）、交通（接送孩子往返郊区的住所）、辅导（许多大学考试都需要更"强化"的辅导）以及其他"社会税"（以适应曼谷的中产阶级社会）。即使您每月的总收入约为10万泰铢（相当于一对审计员夫妇的收入，他们的收入远高于平均水平），您也很难将其用于抚养孩子或存入养老金，因为政府为老年人提供的安全网仅够维持适当的生活水平，如果您在退休后患有非传染性疾病，则会变得更加困难。
尽管我们遭受了轻微的人才外流问题（作为交换，我们吸收了许多外国人、日本人和中国人），邻国也有大量的蓝领工人随时准备填补劳动密集型工作的空缺，但要长期解决泰国的老龄化问题，就必须改善经济结构，使普通泰国人更加富裕，能够在老人和孩子身上花更多钱。政府也要征收更多税收来补贴那些为我们养育孩子和照顾老人的人。
更好的改革还能帮助我们泰国人，而不是陷入中等收入陷阱，使我们同时遭受第一世界和第三世界的问题。而我们的政府为帮助我们解决这个问题所要做的就是一次性发放1万泰铢并希望我们的泰国人花更多的钱就是在胡说八道！

@lucianene7741
Excellent analysis, you should be in the government. I visited Thailand this year and was greatly impressed especially with Bangkok - it seemed like a world-class metropolis with second-to-none infrastructure and a bustling economic life. It looks like a lot is hidden behind the facade...

分析得很好，你应该在政府工作。我今年访问了泰国，尤其是曼谷给我留下了深刻印象--它似乎是一个世界级的大都市，拥有首屈一指的基础设施和繁华的经济生活。但看起来，很多事情都隐藏在表象背后......

@Ak-rt7br
Tawatchai's part of the video made my eyes water. Gosh, if I were to become poor and hadn't planned my finances well enough, I would do the same thing he is doing, rather than be a burden on my family. I would work until the end of my life instead of dragging my family down, and that's without having any kids. Thailand nowadays is getting worse and worse. Even the air we breathe here in Bangkok requires us to buy purifiers from China. Imagine living a life where you even have to purchase the air you breathe. Having a kid? Haha, you've got to be kidding me.

Tawatchai 的那段视频让我热泪盈眶。天哪，如果我变成了穷人，又没有很好地规划自己的财务，我也会做和他一样的事情而不是成为家庭的负担。我会工作到生命的尽头而不是拖累家人，而且还是在没有孩子的情况下。如今的泰国越来越糟糕，就连我们在曼谷呼吸空气都需要从中国购买净化器。试想一下，生活在这样的环境中，连呼吸的空气都需要购买。要孩子？哈哈，开什么玩笑？

@Talkwithtina808
I went to Thailand alone for 3 months with my 8 month old son and every where we went Men ,women and child would run up to me and say baby!! They would take my son hold him, play with him and take pictures with him. It was like he was a celebrity. I’ve never seen anything like that

我独自带着8个月大的儿子去泰国玩了3个月，每到一个地方，男人、女人和孩子都会跑过来跟我说宝贝！！他们会抱着我的儿子，和他一起玩，和他一起拍照，就好像他是个名人一样。我从来没有见过这样的事。

@bruce6641
I lived in Thailand 5 years and saw what you describe many times. you can always easily eat with a baby because the staff will gladly hold and cuddle them. Thais love children especially cute foreign babies.

我在泰国生活了5年，看到过很多次您所描述的情况。在泰国带着孩子吃饭总是很方便，因为工作人员会很乐意抱抱他们。泰国人喜欢孩子，尤其是可爱的外国婴儿。

@shaundas
Not from Thailand but the world is getting more fucked up, global warming, pandemics and more diseases, more crime. Water shortage, more air pollution (i live in delhi) why would i want to bring a child into this world knowing he will suffer in the future. This also is one of the main reasons for me.

我不是泰国人，但这个世界正变得越来越糟糕，全球变暖、大流行和更多的疾病、更多的犯罪、水资源短缺、空气污染加剧（我生活在德里），我为什么要把孩子带到这个世界上？因为我知道他将来会受苦。这也是我不要孩子的主要原因之一。

@d3vilman69
It used to be a norm to have a bunch of kids in our grandparents era and not think much about how their future will be. The mentality then was if the kids can't make it in school then just drop out and find work. It doesn't work like this anymore. People now feel highly responsible for the kids they have and want them to have decent life and education in order to secure a better future.
Standard of living in general can only go up because of the need for economy growth. People generally want salary increments every year so inevitably drive up costs of everything. Those who are at low and middle income will always suffer because they won't starve to death, but can't eat their fill.

在我们的祖父母时代，生一堆孩子而不去考虑他们的未来如何曾经是一种常态。那时的想法是如果孩子们在学校里混不下去，那就辍学去找工作，但现在已经不是这样了。现在，人们会对自己的孩子高度负责，希望他们过上体面的生活，接受良好的教育以确保他们拥有一个更好的未来。
一般来说，生活水平只能因为经济增长的需要而提高。人们一般都希望年年加薪，因此不可避免地会推高一切的成本。那些中低收入者总会受苦，因为他们既饿不死，也吃不饱。

@wisaterhune9077
From experience, there is no support for single parent. If couples split up, only one parent (or grandparents) is responsible for raising the child. Both parents need to be held legally accountable for raising the child and taking care of child's well-being.

从经验来看，单亲父母得不到任何支持。如果夫妻离婚，只有父母一方（或祖父母）负责抚养孩子。父母双方都需要为抚养孩子和照顾孩子的健康成长承担法律责任。

@heroheng3840
Not only thailand, singapore korea japan and many countries all low birth rates for 1 simple reason Money. Things are getting expensive and the world is really getting into bad shape heatwaves in asia and floods in western countries. Is it really worth to create a innocent human in this world now?

不仅是泰国，新加坡、韩国、日本和许多国家的出生率都很低，原因很简单：钱。物价越来越高，世界的状况也越来越糟糕，亚洲热浪滚滚，西方国家洪水泛滥。现在这个世界真的值得去创造一个无辜的人吗？