The Palestinian strategy against Israel is aimed at destroying Israel’s capacity to survive in its present state in a long war.
This means attacking the invincibility of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and theur so-called Iron Dome defence; this began with the cross-border offensive on October 7, and continues with daily drone and artillery attacks on targets inside Israel, as well as resistance to IDF incursions in Gaza.
The plan also means exposing the weakness of the state’s infrastructure and economy; extending the battlefield across all of Israel’s territory – the ports, power plants and electricity grid, communications, and financial markets — making the cost of occupation of the Arab territories unendurable. In a long war, two of Israel’s leading exports earning more than 40% of the state’s trade — diamonds and tourism — face ruin.*

巴勒斯坦对以色列的战略旨在摧毁以色列在长期战争中以目前状态生存的能力。
这意味着攻击以色列国防军(IDF)和他们所谓的铁穹防御系统。这始于10月7日的越境进攻，并继续每天对以色列境内目标进行无人机和大炮攻击，以及抵抗以色列国防军在加沙的入侵。
该计划还意味着暴露该国基础设施和经济的弱点。将战场扩展到以色列的所有领土——港口、发电厂和电网、通讯和金融市场。使占领阿拉伯领土的代价难以忍受。在一场旷日持久的战争中，占以色列贸易40%以上的两大主要出口产品——钻石和旅游业——将面临破产。

“The Israelis cannot withstand one year of fighting in a war,” Iraq’s President Saddam Hussein told his general staff in 1983 during a discussion of planning for a regional war of the Arabs against Israel.** In the forty years since then, the evolution of military technology and tactics has expanded the power of small national liberation armies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, of proxy principals like Iran, and of the strategic balancing role of Russia and China. Their combination now has shortened the Zionist state’s endurance in a long war, and that of its proxy principal, the US.
The Israelis and the Jewish diaspora comprehend this reluctantly. For them, the short war must be correspondingly shorter. This means the GENOCIDE of at least a million Palestinians in lives and displacement.

1983年，伊拉克总统萨达姆·侯赛因在讨论阿拉伯人对以色列的地区战争计划时对他的总参谋部说:“以色列人无法承受一年的战争。” 从那以后的40年里，军事技术和战术的发展充实了哈马斯、真主党和胡塞武装等小型民族解放军队的力量，充实了伊朗等代理人的力量，也扩大了俄罗斯和中国的战略平衡作用。现在，他们的结合缩短了犹太复国主义国家在长期战争中的耐力，也缩短了其代理人美国的耐力。
以色列人和散居海外的犹太人不情愿地理解了这一点。对他们来说，短期战争必须相应地缩短。这意味着至少100万巴勒斯坦人种族灭绝和流离失所。

The war to do that has now become an international war – and this is a war the US cannot sustain. As a Pentagon insider said publicly this week, “because there are so many draws on the logistics and support infrastructure of the Pentagon, we’re not prepared to go in in a concerted way. What we are seeing right now is death by a thousand cuts. Our adversaries know we are stretched so they are going to make us stretch even more, so we can respond even less.”
The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Maria Zakharova, acknowledged the point in Moscow on Thursday: US naval, air force, and marine reinforcements deployed around Israel and Gaza are “American tactics to strengthen their own security (this is how it should be interpreted) at someone else’s expense.” They are backfiring on Washington’s capacity to defend US forces in the Mediterranean, the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, and in land bases in Syria, Iraq and Jordan. “On the contrary,” Zakharova added, the US military deployment “will further rock the situation in the Middle East, create additional tension that can spill out beyond the region.”

这样做的战争现在已经变成了一场国际战争——这是一场美国无法维持的战争。正如五角大楼内部人士本周公开表示的那样，“由于五角大楼的后勤和支持基础设施有太多的需求，我们不准备以协调一致的方式进入。”
我们现在看到的是千刀万剐。我们的对手知道我们疲于奔命，所以他们会让我们更加疲于奔命，这样我们就能做出更少的反应。”
俄罗斯外交部发言人玛丽亚·扎哈罗娃周四在莫斯科承认了这一点:美国在以色列和加沙周围部署的海空军和海军增援部队是“美国以牺牲他人为代价加强自身安全的策略。” 美国在地中海、红海、波斯湾以及叙利亚、伊拉克和约旦的陆上基地保卫美军的能力受到了反作用。“相反，”扎哈罗娃补充说，美国的军事部署“将进一步动摇中东局势，制造额外的紧张局势，并可能蔓延到该地区以外。”

Zakharova’s warning came in the Moscow afternoon. By then Russian Foreign Ministry officials had held meetings with a Hamas delegation, and officials from Iran, Egypt, and Kuwait. Across the city at the same time, President Vladimir Putin held telephone talks with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Kremlin communiqué reported: “Russia and Turkiye have practically overlapping positions.”
Israeli and US-led media censorship and propaganda are concealing the breadth of impact of the Palestine warfighting plan, and the deepening military and economic weaknesses of the Israeli state.
The longer the war continues, the plainer the evidence is on the battlefield that the single-state scheme of Israel and the US is no longer possible. Whether Israel and the US can be compelled to withdraw to the 1967 borders and a new Palestinian state created with partition, demilitarisation, and international security guarantees – the basis of the Russian position announced again on Thursday in Moscow — remains to be fought over.

扎哈罗娃的警告是在莫斯科的下午发出的。当时，俄罗斯外交部官员已经与哈马斯代表团以及伊朗、埃及和科威特的官员举行了会谈。与此同时，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京与土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安进行了电话会谈。克里姆林宫的公报称:“俄罗斯和土耳其的立场实际上是重叠的。”
以色列和美国主导的媒体审查和宣传掩盖了巴勒斯坦作战计划的广泛影响，以及以色列国家日益加深的军事和经济弱点。战争持续的时间越长，战场上的证据就越明显，即以色列和美国的单一国家计划不再可能实现。
能否迫使以色列和美国撤回到1967年的边界，并建立一个新的巴勒斯坦国，并实行分区、非军事化和国际安全保障——这是俄罗斯周四在莫斯科再次宣布的立场的基础——仍有待争论。

In this long war, the gods do not favour the Chosen People.
Following with precision the battlefield action is impossible in the Israeli and Anglo-American press. Reporting of operations, and of Israeli and US casualties, is being suppressed entirely or delayed for days, if not weeks.
According to this NBC television report, broadcast on October 24, there were at least 24 US combat casualties following drone attacks on or about October 18 at the Al-Tanf base in Syria and the Al-Asad base in Iraq. Reporting of naval action in the Red Sea, when the USS Carney reportedly engaged Houthi missiles over several hours, has been changing since the initial news flashes of October 19. Read more here. In a new report of October 24, Israeli and US casualties in a joint raid inside Gaza were revealed: “in the last 24 hours or so, some of our Special Ops forces and Israeli Special Ops forces went into Gaza to reconnoiter, to plan for where they might want to go to free hostages and make an impact, and they were shot to pieces and took heavy losses, as I understand it. I think that is where we are headed and I don’t see that as a win for Israel in any way, shape, or form. And I certainly think it is very dangerous for us”. In current reporting by Al Mayadeen, daily strikes against US bases in Iraq and northeastern Syria are documented.

在这场漫长的战争中诸神不会眷顾应许之人
在以色列和英美媒体中，精确跟踪战场行动是不可能的。有关行动以及以军和美军伤亡的报道，要么被完全压制，要么被推迟数天，甚至数周。
据美国全国广播公司电视台10月24日报道，美军无人机18日前后先后对叙利亚的坦夫基地和伊拉克的阿萨德基地发动袭击，造成至少24人伤亡。自10月19日最初的新闻报道以来，有关海军在红海行动的报道一直在变化。据报道，卡尼号驱逐舰(USS Carney)在几个小时内与胡塞武装交战。链接略
在10月24日的一份新报告中，以色列和美国在加沙的一次联合袭击中伤亡人数被披露:
“据我所知，在过去的24小时左右，美国的一些特种部队和以色列特种部队进入加沙进行侦察，计划他们可能想要去哪里释放人质并制造影响，但他们被击毙，损失惨重。我认为这就是当前局势，从任何角度来说，我都不认为这是以色列的胜利。我当然认为这对我们来说非常危险。”在Al Mayadeen最近的报道中，每天对美国在伊拉克和叙利亚东北部基地的袭击都有记录。

Tracking the electric war and infrastructure strikes by Hamas and Hezbollah is also difficult. They commenced with cyber attacks on Israel’s electricity generation plants and power grids; these have been followed by missile and drone strikes. “The ground has been laid for attacks on the Israeli grid,” a US military source claims. “I believe drones will come first, then missiles. We may even see commando raids.”
Israel’s seaports are also under constant attack. Ashkelon, which is closest in range to Gaza, has been closed. Eilat may have been the target of the Houthi missile strike which was engaged last week by the USS Carney. Ashdod, which accounts for about 40% of incoming and outgoing Israeli seaborne trade, and Tel Aviv port have been targeted. The result is a tenfold surge in war risk insurance for vessels and cargoes, and the curtailment of international vessel movement in and out of the Israeli ports; there are reports that shipping is down 30% in Ashdod compared to the pre-war volume. Evergreen, the Taiwanese container shipping company, declared force majeure for Ashdod on October 17, diverted one vessel to Haifa, and halted future shipping into both ports. “We advise uating each port visit in Israel on a case by case basis and implementing appropriate precautions in ship contingency plans,” recommends a maritime industry alx bulletin.

追踪哈马斯和真主党发动的电力战争和基础设施袭击很困难。他们首先对以色列的发电厂和电网进行网络攻击;随后是导弹和无人机袭击。一名美国军方消息人士称:“已经为袭击以色列电网奠定了基础。”“我相信无人机将首先出现，然后是导弹。我们甚至可能会看到突击队的突袭。”
以色列的海港也不断受到攻击。距离加沙最近的阿什克伦已被关闭。埃拉特可能是胡塞导弹袭击的目标，上周美国海军卡尼号驱逐舰卷入其中。阿什杜德港和特拉维夫港已成为袭击目标。阿什杜德港约占以色列进出海上贸易的40%。其结果是船只和货物的战争风险保险激增了十倍，进出以色列港口的国际船只减少了;有报道称阿什杜德的运输量与战前相比下降了30%。
台湾集装箱航运公司长荣于10月17日宣布，前往阿什杜德的船舶遭遇不可抗力，将一艘船调往海法，并停止未来在这两个港口的航运。海运业警报公告建议:“我们建议根据具体情况评估对以色列的每次港口访问，并在船舶应急计划中实施适当的预防措施。”
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Chevron’s offshore Tamar gas field has been shut down. The source produces 70% of the gas required to fuel Israel’s electricity generation needs. Not a single Anglo-American media source has noticed that Israel is at risk of losing its principal energy source to drone or missile attack. “After what the Americans and Germans did to blow up the Nordstream pipelines,” comments a Moscow industry source, “what is holding Hamas back from hitting Tamar, or Hezbollah from the other Israeli gas fields?”
A Moscow source comments that “in Israel, the US and the UK will be able to bring in supplies without a very big risk of US ships being attacked. The risk is to the ports and bases, not to supplies from the Med[iterranean]. The Greek and Cyprus bases will come in very useful. Israel will not face severe logistical issues as long as it is on the offensive. If its settlements start getting cut off, encircled or penetrated then it is a different matter.”

雪佛龙的海上Tamar气田已经关闭。该气田生产的天然气满足了以色列70%的发电需求。没有一家英美媒体注意到，以色列正面临着因无人机或导弹袭击而失去其主要能源来源的风险。“在美国人和德国人炸毁了北溪管道之后，”一位莫斯科工业界人士评论道，“有什么能阻止哈马斯袭击Tamar，或者有什么能阻止真主党袭击以色列的其他天然气田?”



图：左图:雪佛龙的Tamar天然气生产平台位于阿什克伦以西24公里的海上。右:点击放大以色列海上天然气资源地图。

The indirect economic impacts of the war have also not been calculated or discussed in the mainstream media or international business newspapers. The leading export revenue earners are diamonds at above $9 billion per annum, and tourism which had been peaking at $8.5 billion in 2019. Counted together, diamonds and tourism amount to more than 40% of the state’s export earnings.
The Covid-19 pandemic and worldwide travel restrictions cut Israel’s tourism revenue fourfold, and this had been recovering over 2022 and the tourist season this year. This has now stopped, although for the time being Hamas rocket launches on Ben Gurion airport near Tel Aviv have been intercepted.

战争的间接经济影响也没有在主流媒体或国际商业报纸上计算或讨论。主要的出口收入来源是每年超过90亿美元的钻石，以及2019年达到85亿美元峰值的旅游业。算在一起，钻石和旅游业占该国出口收入的40%以上。
2019冠状病毒病大流行和全球旅行限制，使以色列的旅游收入减少了四分之三，而这一收入在2022年和今年的旅游季节一直在恢复。虽然哈马斯向特拉维夫附近的本古里安机场发射的火箭暂时被拦截，但目前这种情况已经停止。

Israel’s high-tech machine exports and pharmaceuticals may also be affected if electricity supply, internet networks, and transportation are damaged.
The cumulative effect will be the outcome which the international ratings agencies have been warning the international banks and financial markets to prepare for. “In our view,” Fitch reported to clients on October 17, “the combination of Israel’s dynamic, high-value added economy, the record of resilience to regional conflict, [and] preparedness for military confrontations…make it unlikely a relatively short conflict largely confined to Gaza will affect Israel’s rating…. the risk that other actors hostile to Israel, such as Iran and Hezbollah, could join the conflict at scale has risen significantly…a major escalation could result in negative rating action. This could take the form of a wider and longer conflict, resulting in a sustained fiscal drain, both from higher spending and lower tax collection, as well as loss of human and material capital and severe economic disruption.”

如果电力供应、互联网和交通受到破坏，以色列的高科技机器出口和药品也可能受到影响。
累积效应将是国际评级机构一直警告国际银行和金融市场要做好准备的结果。“在我们看来，”惠誉10月17日向客户报告称，“以色列充满活力、高附加值的经济、对地区冲突的弹性记录，以及对军事对抗的准备……这些因素结合在一起，使一场主要局限于加沙地带的相对较短的冲突不太可能影响以色列的评级。但对以色列怀有敌意的其他行为体，如伊朗和真主党，可能大规模加入冲突的风险已经显著上升……重大升级可能导致负面评级行动。这可能会导致范围更广、时间更长的冲突，导致持续的财政流失，包括支出增加和税收减少，以及人力和物质资本的损失和严重的经济中断。”

How short, and also how long, Israel’s warfighting plan will take depends on American and international acceptance, not only of the GENOCIDE intended for the Palestinians of Gaza, but of the Novichok-type chemical warfare planned by the IDF and the Pentagon for the Hamas tunnel system in Gaza City. After several years in which the US and UK have fabricated claims that Syria and Russia were using prohibited gas warfare weapons, the Israelis have reportedly persuaded the US to participate in the tunnel attack operation. The Pentagon is denying the reports.
Russian and US military sources are already confirming the logistical supply problems facing Israeli and US forces at present, when the war is just three weeks long. Greek sources are reporting the Souda Bay, Crete, base has already reached its capacity for incoming US navy and air force supply and support operations; the spillover is facing growing Greek protest at the Elefsina air base near Athens.

以及以色列的战斗计划持续多久，将取决于美国和国际的接受度。不仅是对加沙的巴勒斯坦人的种族灭绝，还有国际社会对加沙城哈马斯隧道网络的化学战争的接受。几年来，美国和英国一直捏造叙利亚和俄罗斯使用违禁气体武器的说法，据报道，以色列已经说服美国参与隧道袭击行动。五角大楼否认了这些报道。
俄罗斯和美国军方的消息来源已经证实，目前以色列和美国军队面临后勤供应问题，而战争只有三周的时间。据希腊消息来源报道，克里特岛的苏达湾基地已经达到了美国海军和空军补给和支持行动的能力;这种溢出效应在雅典附近的埃莱夫西纳空军基地引发了希腊人越来越多的抗议。

A Cyprus source says the movement of US and British aircraft into and out of the Dekhelia and Akrotiri airbases is accelerating, and there is an air and seaborne shuttle between the Cypriot ports of Larnaca and Limassol and the USS Gerald Ford carrier group at sea to the southwest of the island.
The lengthening of the supply lines required to support the USS Eisenhower carrier group in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf and the shore bases needed to support it are politically sensitive already; and the risks of Houthi and other attacks, along with domestic Arab crowd protests, will intensify for these bases in the Arab sheikhdoms the longer the war against Israel reveals Arab and Iranian warfighting skill and resistance.
Converting these gains into a negotiating frxwork for Israeli-American retreat is the task Russian officials are attempting in silent coordination with the Chinese, and in semi-open negotiations in Moscow this week. In its first move outside the region since the war began, Hamas has visited Moscow for negotiations, led by US-educated Moussa Mohammed Abu Marzouq.

一位塞浦路斯消息人士称，美国和英国飞机进出泽海利亚和阿克罗蒂里空军基地的速度正在加快，在塞浦路斯拉纳卡和利马索尔港口之间有空中和海上穿梭，在该岛西南部的海上有杰拉尔德·福特号航母战斗群。
延长在红海和波斯湾支援艾森豪威尔号航母战斗群所需的补给线，以及支援该战斗群所需的海岸基地，在政治上已经很敏感。针对以色列的战争暴露出，阿拉伯和伊朗的作战技巧和抵抗能力的时间越长，这些阿拉伯酋长国的基地面临的胡塞武装和其他组织袭击以及阿拉伯国内人群抗议的风险就会加剧。
将这些成果转化为以色列和美国撤退的谈判框架，是俄罗斯官员本周在莫斯科进行的半公开谈判中试图与中国进行的一项任务。自战争开始以来，哈马斯首次走出该地区，访问莫斯科进行谈判，由受过美国教育的穆萨·穆罕默德·阿布·马尔祖克领导。
（未完待续）