This epoch we are witnessing is not a simple recalibration of the world order. We are at the end of a unipolar hegemony and its reserve currency status.

前言：我们正在目睹的这个时代，它不是简单地重新调整的世界秩序。我们正处于单极霸权及其储备货币地位的终结。

The rise and fall of empires throughout recorded history were periods of volatility and conflict. When plotting a historical timeline showing the ‘life-span’ of consecutive empires, each empire forms a sinusoidal peak. The decline of the prevailing empire and the rise of the emerging empire intersects at a point, depicting a transition period. That transition is a multiyear process ushering in the ‘changing of the guards’, which results in a tectonic shift of economy and culture. This trend of transitions has similar parallels pertaining to war and reserve currency status.
Let us examine the past 400 years of world reserve currencies. The first cycle marks the rise and fall of the Dutch Empire which was dominated by the use of a gold/silver backed guilder standard. The second cycle began with the rise of the British Empire where it crossed with the decline of the Dutch Empire marking an intersection point. One of the major events at that point was the 4th Anglo-Dutch war during the 1780’s. This second cycle of the British Empire cycle at its peak, was dominated by the use of a gold/silver backed sterling pound standard. The third cycle began with the rise of the American ‘liberal democracy’ hegemony which then intersected with the decline of the British Empire. The transition at this intersection point is marked by WWI and WWII, with the USD gold backed at its peak.
Please note, the previous paragraph is considerably simplified. This article focuses more on economic power and world order dominance. After the fall of the Spanish Empire in the 17th century, the Spanish silver Real remained a trading currency in the American colonies. Prior to the 4th Anglo-Dutch War, the gold/silver backed French Livre was a dominant trading currency during the 18th century. This currency failed, in the late 18th century due to debasement. After the 4th Anglo-Dutch War, the gold/silver backed French germinal Franc was a dominant trade currency during the 19th century. During the rise of the British Empire, France was also rising as a military superpower. Both the British and French were vying for economic dominance during that era. The British Empire won and became a world power.

在有记载的历史中，帝国的兴衰是动荡和冲突的时期。当绘制一个显示连续帝国“寿命”的历史时间表时，每个帝国会形成一个正弦峰值。主流帝国的衰落和新兴帝国的崛起在某一点上相交，它描绘了一个过渡时期。这种转变是一个持续多年的过程，随之而来的是“换岗”，这将导致经济和文化的结构性转变。这种转变趋势在战争和储备货币地位方面也有相似之处。



让我们回顾一下过去400年世界储备货币的历史。第一个周期标志着荷兰帝国的兴衰，以使用以金银为后盾的荷兰盾为主导储备货币。第二个周期开始于大英帝国的崛起，并与荷兰帝国的衰落成为一个交叉点。当时的主要事件之一是十八世纪八十年代的第四次英荷战争。
这是大英帝国周期的第二个周期，在其顶峰时期，主要是以金银为后盾的的英镑为主导储备货币。第三个周期开始于美国“自由民主”霸权的崛起，然后与大英帝国的衰落相交。这个交点的转变标志着第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战，以黄金为后盾的美元达到其巅峰。
请注意，前一段已大大简化。本文更侧重于经济实力和世界秩序主导地位。17世纪西班牙帝国衰落后，西班牙银币雷亚尔仍然是美洲殖民地的贸易货币。在第四次英荷战争之前，以金银为后盾的法国里弗是18世纪的主要贸易货币。这种货币在18世纪后期由于贬值而失败。第四次英荷战争后，以金银为后盾的法国法郎在19世纪成为主要的贸易货币。在大英帝国崛起期间，法国也在崛起为一个军事超级大国。在那个时代，英国和法国都在争夺经济主导地位。大英帝国赢了，成为世界强国。

Post WWII, the world reserve currency was based on the Bretton Woods system of a gold backed US dollar. During the 1960's, many began to question its authenticity as a reserve currency. French President Charles De Gaulle, embodied a sovereign nation-state perspective and was most vocal in 1965. He awakened the world to see that the US was not operating a gold standard with due diligence. In the following years, cracks began to appear in the US wanton management of the US dollar forcing parties to demand gold instead of dollars. In a desperate move to shield the US dollar's reserve currency status, an emergency measure was taken. A temporary suspension of interchangeability from US dollars into gold was declared. This was done in 1971, by then US President Richard Nixon under the claims that speculators were trying to make a run on the dollar. Soon after, major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia entered an agreement with the US to trade oil, denominated in USD only. In exchange for this agreement, the US promised in return, security in the Middle East. This placed the USD reserve currency status on life support by making it the petrodollar. Over half a century later, that ‘temporary’ suspension of interchangeability into gold is still in place. Also, the US accumulated over $30 trillion USD in debt and had no independent audit conducted of the US gold reserve holdings since.
In 2017, I uploaded a video of Russia and China 'hammering nails into the coffin' of the USD reserve currency status. These actions had become quite noticeable in the last few months of 2017. Of course, these nails were being hammered since 2012. Those nails were of different sizes and shapes. Examples included:
Development of yuan-ruble payment systems bypassing SWIFT.
Russia’s allies willing to trade energy commodities in gold.
Russia paving the road for bilateral currency trade agreements between ideological rivals, such as Turkey and Iran.
Launching oil futures contracts on the Shanghai Energy Exchange redeemable in yuan, with room in the trading system to include future gold redemption.
Ruble only payments at Russian seaports.

二战后，世界储备货币是以黄金为后盾的美元的布雷顿森林体系。20世纪60年代，许多人开始质疑美元作为储备货币的可靠性。法国总统戴高乐代表了主权民族国家的观点，他在1965年最是直言不讳。他唤醒了世界，让世界认识到，美国在操作金本位制度时并没有尽职尽责。在接下来的几年里，美国对美元的肆意管理开始出现裂痕，迫使各方要求黄金而不是美元。为了保护美元的储备货币地位，政府采取了一项紧急措施。
宣布暂时停止美元与黄金的互换性。1971年，时任美国总统的理查德·尼克松提出，投机者正试图挤兑美元。不久之后，沙特阿拉伯等主要石油生产国与美国签订了仅以美元计价的石油贸易协议。作为这项协议的交换，美国承诺中东地区的安全。这使美元成为石油美元，从而使美元的储备货币地位岌岌可危。半个多世纪后，黄金的可互换性仍然“暂时”暂停。此外，美国积累了超过30万亿美元的债务，而且自那以来没有对美国黄金储备持有进行过独立审计。



2017年，我上传了一部《俄罗斯和中国“把钉子钉进”美元储备货币地位的棺材》的视频。这些行动在2017年最后几个月变得相当明显。当然，这些钉子从2012年就开始钉了。那些钉子大小不同，形状各异。例子包括:
开发绕过SWIFT的人民币-卢布支付体系；
俄罗斯的盟友愿意用黄金交易能源大宗商品；
俄罗斯为土耳其和伊朗等意识形态竞争对手之间的双边货币贸易协议铺平了道路；
在上海能源交易所推出可兑换人民币的石油期货合约，交易系统中有包括未来黄金赎回的空间；
在俄罗斯海港提供卢布支付。

These developments only intensified and acknowledgement of it resulted in derision by westerners. People were ridiculed as conspiracy theorists, Putin apologists or Russian disinformation agents. Fast forward to March 2022, and Russia is implementing an arsenal of financial architecture to bypass the SWIFT system. This architecture is the basis for alternatives to the western financial system, as mentioned in my last article. Time will tell if these western economic warfare tactics will work as intended. The intention of the west's economic war is more than curtailing Russia's kinetic war. Western economic warfare at this scale is intended to destroy the Russian economy. Any failing economy will generate enough dissatisfaction among citizens resulting in destabilization. This form of regime change is standard US/NATO playbook tactics. The west's form of regime change for Russia will be to balkanize it as the west does in every region it spreads ‘liberal democracy’.

这些发展只会加剧，而承认这一点只会招致西方人的嘲笑。人们被嘲笑为阴谋论者、普京的辩护者或俄罗斯的虚假情报特工。快进到2022年3月，俄罗斯正在实施一系列金融架构，以绕过SWIFT系统。正如我在上一篇文章中提到的，这种架构是替代西方金融体系的基础。
时间会告诉我们，西方的这些经济战战术是否会如预期那样奏效。西方发动经济战的意图，不仅仅是遏制俄罗斯的活跃战争。西方如此大规模的经济战意在摧毁俄罗斯经济。任何失败的经济都会在公民中引起足够的不满，从而导致不稳定。这种形式的政权更迭是美国/北约的标准战术。对于俄罗斯来说，西方政权更迭的形式将使其巴尔干化，就像西方在其传播“自由民主”的每个地区所做的那样。

The end of a world reserve currency status, (not the currency itself), is historically accompanied with a shift in world order. Over the past decade, Russian and Chinese statecraft, have been leading in the creation of a multi-polar world order frxwork. They plan to promote regions comprised of sovereign states co-existing and competing for mutual benefit. The case for this multi-polar world order is antithetical to the ideology of liberal democracy touted as the best form of governance. The eastern partnership towards a multi-polar world order is quite evident today. Their multi-lateral economic, military, trade and cultural developments in Eurasia attest to this. Some of these developments include:

从历史上看，世界储备货币地位(而非货币本身)的终结，总是伴随着世界秩序的转变。在过去的十年里，俄罗斯和中国的治国方略一直在领导建立一个多极世界秩序框架。他们计划促进由主权国家组成的地区共存和相互竞争。支持这种多极世界秩序的理由，与被吹捧为最佳治理形式的自由民主意识形态是对立的。今天，东方在建立多极世界秩序方面的伙伴关系相当明显。他们在欧亚大陆的多边经济、军事、贸易和文化发展证明了这一点。这些发展包括:
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


The BRICS nations group comprising of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
The Eurasian Economic unx (EAEU).
The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)
The One Belt One Road, (OBOR) Silk Road initiative.

由巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非组成金砖国家集团；
欧亚经济联盟(EAEU)；
集体安全条约组织(CSTO)；
上海合作组织；
独立国家联合体(CIS)；
亚洲基础设施投资银行；
一带一路倡议。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


The preservation of nation-state sovereignty is considered in these partnerships. The ethos of these organisations, is not founded upon a unipolar rules-based international order. These countries view multi-polarity as a function of their civilizational posterity. These institutions do not dictate policy to nation-states as in the west. An example of western institutions imposing counter-productive policies is the ‘Troika’. The 'Troika' oversaw the debt restructuring post 2008 for Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain (PIIGS nations). Those countries today remain in excessive and perpetual debt with even worse socio-economic problems. See my article on the Troika from over a decade ago.
Chess moves by Chinese and Russian statecraft are unassertively played. They trained themselves to be humble in their actions, based on the lessons learnt from the fate of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi. There are consequences for running around the Middle East, offering the concept to trade oil in a currency other than the USD. Even more, for questioning why Middle East oil trades in New York and London. Saddam was guilty of both these actions. There are ramifications for pleading with Arab and North African leaders to create sound money. Even more, for planning to back the Libyan dinar with hundreds of tons of gold in the Libyan Central Bank. There will be conflict for going further to suggest the use of a gold dinar for Libya’s oil trade. Eyebrows raise, when one preaches that poor black people of Africa must use their own resources for African development. Gaddafi was culpable of saying all this. ‘Pride cometh before the fall’, even if you’re an authoritarian with a brilliant idea.

这些伙伴关系虑及维护民族国家主权。 这些组织的精神，并不是建立在以单极规则为基础的国际秩序之上。 这些国家认为多极化是未来的必然趋势。这些机构不像西方那样对民族国家发号施令。西方机构实施适得其反的政策的一个例子是“三驾马车”。 “三驾马车”监督了葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰、希腊和西班牙(欧猪五国)2008年后的债务重组，但这些国家今天仍然处于过度和永久的债务之中，社会经济问题更加严重。
中国和俄罗斯的治国方略在国际象棋上走得并不果断。他们从伊拉克的萨达姆·侯赛和利比亚的穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲的命运中吸取教训，训练自己在行动中保持谦逊。
以美元以外的货币交易石油的概念，在中东地区四处奔走是有后果的。更重要的是，为什么中东石油会在纽约和伦敦交易？萨达姆犯下了这两项罪行。恳求阿拉伯和北非领导人创造健全的货币是有后果的。更重要的是，他（卡扎菲）计划在利比亚中央银行用数百吨黄金来支持利比亚第纳尔。而进一步建议在利比亚的石油贸易中使用黄金第纳尔，使得冲突不可避免。当有人说非洲贫穷的黑人必须用自己的资源来促进非洲的发展时，人们不禁扬起了眉毛。卡扎菲说这些话是有罪的。“骄者必败”，即使你是一个有绝妙想法的专制主义者。

Russian statecraft has also made their chess moves with patience. One of the chief architects of an economic plan designed to commence an industrial revolution in Eurasia is Sergey Glazyev. He is a high-ranking economic advisor to Russia’s leadership and the EAEU’s economics minister. Many years ago, he wrote two books that forecasted what is happening today. His predictions cover western sanctions, war and an unreliable USD reserve currency system. His proposals can shift Eurasia and its allies towards a sovereign nation-state trade system. One based on using a monetary and financial system, that excludes the use of an individual national currency or USD. For years, his team have been organising and patiently waiting for this moment to implement their plans. He has already proposed removal of exchange controls for cross-border settlements within the EAEU and China. As a result, their national currencies or a new international currency will be used instead of the USD. The information in the public discloses that the international currency will be a basket of national currencies. This currency can be incorporated into a blockchain payment system. The national currencies would be backed by commodities such as gold, oil, metals, grains and natural gas.

俄罗斯的治国方略也在耐心地下着棋。谢尔盖·格拉济耶夫是一项旨在在欧亚大陆启动工业革命的经济计划的首席设计师之一。他是俄罗斯领导层的高级经济顾问，也是欧亚经济联盟的经济部长。许多年前，他写了两本书，预测了今天发生的事情。他的预测涵盖了西方的制裁、战争和不可靠的美元储备货币体系。他的提议可以将欧亚大陆及其盟友转变为一个主权民族国家贸易体系。一种基于货币和金融体系的货币，不使用单个国家货币或美元。
多年来，他的团队一直在组织，耐心地等待这一刻来实施他们的计划。他已经提议取消欧亚经济联盟和中国境内的跨境结算外汇管制。因此，他们的国家货币或新的国际货币将取代美元。公开的信息显示，国际货币将是一篮子国家货币。这种货币可以并入区块链支付系统。各国货币将受到黄金、石油、金属、谷物和天然气等大宗商品的支撑。

The east is fundamentally altering the entire working assumptions of the global trade system. Russia has recently made moves to begin lixing the ruble to gold. The Central Bank of Russia is offering to buy gold from Russian banks at a fixed price of 5000 rubles per gram. Adding gold to the national reserves, while having energy payments transacted in rubles, is enough for us to know where this is heading. Disregard the western media’s joy, in reporting that the ruble is crashing post western sanctions. It’s over, the ruble has now recovered to pre-sanction levels. A yuan redeemable oil contract is being traded on the Shanghai Energy Exchange. The inter-convertibility into gold for this oil contract is in the works. When the east begins using gold as a unit of account in trade, physical gold demand will increase. As a result, what happens to the paper gold markets at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and the US based Commodities Mercantile Exchange (COMEX)? Rehypothecated futures contracts and derivatives of exchange traded funds (ETF’s) exchanged at the LBMA and COMEX will ‘blow-up’. Boom! This will detach the gold market from the USD system giving the east an ability to set a gold price floor denominated in their own currencies.

东方正在从根本上改变全球贸易体系的整个运作假设。俄罗斯最近采取措施，开始将卢布与黄金挂钩。俄罗斯央行提出以每克兑5000卢布的固定价格从俄罗斯银行购买黄金。在国家储备中增加黄金，同时让能源支付以卢布进行，这足以让我们知道这将走向何方。不要理会西方媒体在报道卢布在西方制裁后暴跌时的喜悦，那结束了，卢布现在已经恢复到制裁前的水平。
人民币可赎回在上海能源交易所交易的石油合约，石油合约可兑换黄金的计划正在进行中。当东方开始在贸易中使用黄金作为记账单位时，实物黄金需求将会增加。因此，伦敦金银市场协会(LBMA)和美国商品交易所(COMEX)的纸黄金市场会发生什么变化? 在这里通过交易所交易基金(ETF)达成的期货合约和衍生品将崩盘。嘭！这将使黄金市场从美元体系中分离出来，使东方国家有能力以本国货币设定黄金价格下限。

This multi-polar world economic and security architecture is led by power structures in Russia and China. This architecture has the fundamentals to guarantee a high probability for its realisation. Their unique form of ‘Lex Mercatoria’ (Latin – ‘Merchant Law’) serves, two main functions. Firstly, it represents an autonomous legal order of international economic relations for trade. Secondly, it exists independently from national legal orders and has rules for settling disputes. ‘Lex Mercatoria’ also covers fundamental legal principles for trade. It provides a basis of how money and currencies function in relationship to trade and private property rights.

这个多极化的世界经济和安全架构由俄罗斯和中国的权力结构主导，这种架构具有保证其大概率得以实现的基础。它们独特的形式“Lex Mercatoria”(拉丁文“商人法”)有两个主要功能。
首先，它代表了国际经济贸易关系的自治法律秩序；
其次，它独立于国家法律秩序而存在，并有解决纠纷的规则。“Lex Mercatoria”还涵盖了贸易的基本法律原则。它为货币和钱财如何在贸易和私有产权的关系中发挥作用提供了基础。

Russia is setting an example for its allies by honouring natural gas contractual agreements during turmoil. They are giving a preview of to expect in the multi-polar world. The plethora of actions against Russia could have been computed as sufficient for Russia to declare ‘force-majeure’. Claiming 'force-majeure' on natural gas contracts with Europe and Ukraine, should have resulted in turning off the gas valves. The economic actions taken against Russia fulfilled the pre-requirements for ‘force-majeure’. Those actions materially and economically affected Russia's ability to perform their obligations. These actions were:
Being financially cut-off from inter-bank transfer messaging system SWIFT.
Economically, shut-in with a load of sanctions from the west.
Shipping companies having stop trade with Russian ports.
Russia’s hundreds of billions in sovereign foreign exchange reserves ‘frozen’ by the west. Note, Russia’s reserves are protected under sovereign immunity, so freezing it is equivalent to stealing.

俄罗斯正在为其盟友树立榜样，在动荡时期履行天然气合同协议。它们为多极世界的前景提供了一个预览。针对俄罗斯的大量行动足以让俄罗斯宣布“不可抗力”。在与欧洲和乌克兰的天然气合同中声称“不可抗力”，将导致关闭天然气阀门。对俄罗斯采取的经济行动满足了“不可抗力”的先决条件。这些行动在物质和经济上影响了俄罗斯履行其义务的能力。这些行动包括:
与银行间转账信息系统SWIFT的财务阻断；
经济上，被西方的制裁所困；
航运公司已经停止了与俄罗斯港口的贸易；
俄罗斯数千亿美元的主权外汇储备被西方“冻结”。请注意，俄罗斯的外汇储备受到主权豁免的保护，因此冻结外汇储备等同于偷窃。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


The natural gas has not stopped flowing. Russia, being cut-off from the international financial system, still fulfils gas contractual obligations. When Russia asks for payment in rubles, what do the European leaders do? They hysterically demonise Russia even more and refuse to pay in rubles. Russia responds to Europe by creating a mechanism within Russia's financial system for payments. Europe can now deposit their payment in a currency of choice to a bank, get it converted into rubles and credited back, to then pay Russian gas suppliers. This compromise even provides cover for European leaders to tell their citizens that they are not paying in rubles, when in the end they are. In this case, which party shows themselves to be a reliable and trustworthy trading partner? Also, note that citizens of China, Africa, the Middle East and the global south are all paying attention.

天然气没有停止流动。由于俄罗斯与国际金融体系隔绝，它仍在履行天然气合同义务。当俄罗斯要求以卢布支付时，欧洲领导人会怎么做? 他们歇斯底里地妖魔化俄罗斯，拒绝用卢布支付。作为对欧洲的回应，俄罗斯在其金融体系内创建了一个支付机制。欧洲现在可以选择一种货币将付款存入银行，然后兑换成卢布，再贷回给俄罗斯天然气供应商。
这种妥协甚至为欧洲领导人提供了掩护，让他们可以告诉本国公民，他们不是在用卢布支付，尽管最终他们确实是在用卢布支付。在这种情况下，哪一方是值得信赖的贸易伙伴? 此外，中国、非洲、中东和南半球的公民都在关注。

The US and their allies have thoroughly undermined the essence of the concept of the nation-state order. The modern idea of a nation-state was ascertained by the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648. This idea is based on territoriality and the exclusion of external actors from domestic authority structures. US/NATO are known for funding and arming rebel groups to destabilise unfriendly countries. This is a prime example of using non-state actors to undermine a nation-state. The US trained and used the Mujahideen who evolved into Al-Qaeda terrorists. Similarly, the same way the US along with NATO armed ‘moderate freedom fighting rebels’, who evolved into ISIS extremists. The west uses NGO’s and aid organisations to sow dissatisfaction among a target population. Two examples of such NGO's are, the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and the Open Society Foundation. The created dissatisfaction then results in political instability, so as to usher in regime change. Colour revolutions are used at most times to sway an election or overthrow a government. These actions undermine nation-statehood derived from the Treaty of Westphalia.

美国及其盟友彻底破坏了民族国家秩序概念的本质。民族国家的现代概念是由1648年的《威斯特伐利亚条约》确定的。这一想法的基础是领土性和将外部行为者排除在国内权力结构之外。
美国和北约以资助和武装叛乱组织来破坏不友好国家的稳定而闻名。这是一个利用非国家行为体来破坏民族国家的典型例子。美国训练和利用了圣战者，他们后来演变成了基地组织的恐怖分子。同样，美国和北约一起武装“温和自由反叛军”，这些叛军后来演变成ISIS极端分子。西方利用非政府组织和援助组织在目标人群中散播不满情绪。这类非政府组织的两个例子是国家民主基金会(NED)和开放社会基金会。由此产生的不满会导致政治不稳定，从而导致政权更迭。颜色革命在大多数时候被用来影响选举或推翻政府。这些行为破坏了源自《威斯特伐利亚条约》的民族国家地位。
（未完待续）