铁幕正在欧洲卷土重来，尽管东侧的地区变得更少（二）
[OC]The Iron Curtain is returning in Europe,altough fewer regions are now on its Eastern side
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所以只有俄罗斯和白俄罗斯。
这不是回归。现在黄色的那些是不结盟的，但这并不意味着他们被分成亲欧洲/欧盟和亲俄罗斯两派。更多意味着他们还没有加入欧盟。
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铁幕正在欧洲卷土重来，尽管东侧的地区变得更少
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So just Russia + Belarus.
It’s not returning. And the ones in yellow nowadays are non-aligned but that doesn’t mean they’re split between pro-Europe/EU and pro-Russia. More of means they’re not in EU yet.
Serbia has an application to the EU and could join soon. The rest, except for Bosnia and Herzegovina, are in negotiations as well. Kosovo isn’t fully recognized by all EU states yet. Also Bosnia has an application in to start negotiations.
Sorry but this is a terrible map since it looks like it’s trying to induce fear or something. The iron curtain is not coming back it’s actually quite the opposite
所以只有俄罗斯和白俄罗斯。
这不是回归。现在黄色的那些是不结盟的，但这并不意味着他们被分成亲欧洲/欧盟和亲俄罗斯两派。更多意味着他们还没有加入欧盟。
塞尔维亚已经向欧盟提出申请，可能很快就会加入。除波斯尼亚-黑塞哥维那以外的其他国家也在进行谈判。科索沃还没有被所有欧盟国家完全承认。波斯尼亚也开始申请谈判。
抱歉，但这是一张糟糕的地图，因为它看起来像是试图诱导恐惧之类的。铁幕不会回来，实际上恰恰相反。
Neither Bosnia and Herzegovina nor Serbia are joining anytime soon, there are still far, far too many issues to resolve first, none of which are close to being solved.
波斯尼亚、黑塞哥维那和塞尔维亚都不会在短期内加入，仍然有太多太多的问题需要解决，而这些问题都离解决很遥远。
If anything this map highlights the aggressive expansion of NATO
如果有什么区别的话，这张地图突出了北约的激进扩张。
I would put Serbia, Hungary and Turkey on the watch list for potentially switching of sides. Turkey won't join Russia but they're definitely authoritarian. The other two are sympathetic and increasingly authoritarian.
我将把塞尔维亚、匈牙利和土耳其列入观察名单，鉴于它们可能改变立场。土耳其不会加入俄罗斯，但他们绝对是独裁主义者。另外两个是同情者，而且越来越专制。
Hungry definitely, but I think Orbán needs to call the EU the enemy to retain power and that naturally leads him to Putin. Serbia I don’t know enough about their situation to comment so I’ll defer to someone else.
And Turkey I’m pretty sure won’t ever fully side with Russia, they may be authoritarian, but they like to play both sides and if they went fully into either side they would lose a large partner (the EU or Russia). But I would agree Turkey seems pretty sympathetic towards Putin which does enable him more than hinder
匈牙利是肯定的，但我认为欧尔班需要称欧盟为敌人来保住权力，这自然会把他引向普京。我不太了解他们的情况，所以我会听从别人的意见。
我很确定土耳其永远不会完全站在俄罗斯一边，他们可能是专制的，但他们喜欢玩弄双方，如果他们完全站在任何一方，他们将失去一个大的合作伙伴(欧盟或俄罗斯)。但我同意土耳其似乎很同情普京，这让土耳其更有可能提供帮助而不是相反。
Serbia’s main problem is ethnic Serbians in Bosnia and Kosovo. Western countries defeated them in these Muslim-majority countries after bloody wars with lots of ethnic cleansing, and put barely independent decentralized regimes in place.
Ethnic Serbs want these places to expel Muslims, or separate Serbian-majority areas, and join Serbia. Serbia doesn’t want to re-ignite ethnic conflicts, so it treats these regions as frozen conflicts. Bosnia can’t have a central government, Kosovo won’t get their independence recognized. Both of these issues have to be solved before Serbia joins the EU.
塞尔维亚的主要问题是波斯尼亚和科索沃的塞尔维亚族人。在这些穆斯林占多数的国家，西方国家在血腥的战争和大量的种族清洗后击败了他们。……
塞族人希望这些地方能够驱逐穆斯林，或者分离塞尔维亚人占多数的地区，并加入塞尔维亚。塞尔维亚不想重新点燃种族冲突，所以它将这些地区视为暂时被冻结的冲突——波斯尼亚不能有一个中央政府，科索沃的独立得不到承认。
在塞尔维亚加入欧盟之前，这两个问题都必须得到解决。
Both of these issues have to be solved before Serbia joins the EU.
And it never will be, because the shameful actions of all the belligerents in the 1990's has turned this into a perpetual whataboutism that's ingrained into society. You can't even bring up a former Yugoslav nation on reddit without it descending into a shitshow.
It's made worse by some of the slimiest politicians on the planet.
“在塞尔维亚加入欧盟之前，这两个问题都必须得到解决。”
永远不可能。因为所有交战国在20世纪90年代可耻的行为已经把这变成了一种根深蒂固的胡扯。你只要在Reddit上提到一个前南斯拉夫国家，它就会变成一场闹剧。
而地球上一些最肮脏的政客让情况变得更糟。
Turkey's never going to switch sides. Erdoğan is an opportunist without the slightest bit of principle, and he's also (unfortunately) not an idiot. He knows that the East offers nothing to Turkey relative to what the West does. Turkey's institutions, economy, and society are so firmly attached to the Western world that it would be suicide in every way to even try to decouple from it.
He'll play both sides to maximise what he can get from both, but if push comes to shove, he will never choose Russia over the EU/US. Never. He will talk the talk about the West, but he will never act on it.
土耳其永远不会改变立场。埃尔多安是一个没有丝毫原则的机会主义者，而且(不幸的是)他也不是一个白痴。他知道，与西方相比，东方对土耳其的贡献微不足道。
土耳其的制度、经济和社会与西方世界有着如此紧密的联系，以至于试图与西方世界脱钩在任何方面都无异于自杀。
他会玩弄双方，以最大化他能从双方得到的东西，但如果到了紧要关头，他永远不会选择俄罗斯而不是欧盟/美国。绝不会。
他只会大谈西方，却从不付诸行动。
And most of Belarus appears to desperately want out. Putin has recently been one of the few things keeping Lukashenko in power. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it would align itself with the EU and NATO, but it's still significant.
Russia is basically the last colonial empire. It didn't go through the social and political transformations most of the world went through after WWII, and now obviously cannot comprehend anything other than military might and wars of aggression. It badly needs to be broken up and demilitarized, which for 6000 very nuclear reasons is sadly never going to happen.
But in an ideal world, just like the rest of Europe learned these past few decades, the day it needs to rely exclusively on friendly relations and economic ties to sustain itself and grow it will no doubt do a 180° and seek EU membership. Needless to say, even in that ideal and totally never happening timeline it's going to take a very long time for them to qualify.
大多数白俄罗斯人似乎迫切希望退出。普京最近一直是少数几个让卢卡申科继续掌权的人之一。当然，这并不一定意味着它将与欧盟和北约结盟，但它仍然具有重要意义。
俄罗斯基本上是最后一个殖民帝国。它没有经历世界上大多数国家在二战后经历的社会和政治变革，现在显然无法理解除军事力量和侵略战争之外的任何事情。它迫切需要被打破和非军事化，然而它有6000颗核武器，所以这是永远不会发生的。
但在一个理想的世界里，就像欧洲其他国家在过去几十年学到的那样，当它需要完全依赖友好关系和经济关系来维持自身和发展时，它无疑会180度大转弯，寻求加入欧盟。不用说，即使在这种理想的、完全不可能发生的情况下，他们也需要很长时间才能获得资格。
Russia is not the last “colonial empire” by any means. Nation states are a modern and European thing. It was the historical norm to expand where possible with the ruling family / people having subordinate subjects of different ethnicities, often even different faiths.
All American nations have very obvious colonial roots. The indigenous populations there were either wiped out, cultural assimilated, or suppressed by the new elite. The US in particular still acts like an empire policing the world with its military and dictating policies abroad through gunboat diplomacy. But this isn’t a colonial empire, I suppose?
The post-colonial post-imperial nations of Africa and Asia use borders drawn by Europeans and established explicitly on imperial terms. Sometimes the new elite has been better at integrating or respecting the various ethnicities in their new “post-colonial empire” - like Indonesia, whereas others struggle such as Nigeria, Iraq and so forth. For these countries, their colonial past is a mixed blessing, but nonetheless their governments insist on and will defend their colonial borders even if it requires suppression of their own minority citizens (ex: Burma/Myanmar). Many if not all post-Soviet republics also fall into this category.
Lastly, there are the non-“European” empires which have held on to imperial territories to this day, also involving suppression, cultural assimilation or displacement of autochthonous ethnicities. Examples here are Turkey (Kurdistan), Japan (Hokkaido), Thailand, Vietnam (Saigon), Russia (Siberia and the Pontic steppe), and China (xinjiang, Tibet, yunnan, Manchuria, Inner Mongolia, Taiwan) et cetera. China will get some flak here, yet the others I suppose are likely dismissed due to ignorance.
俄罗斯绝不是最后一个“殖民帝国”。民族国家是现代的、欧洲的事物。这是历史规范，在可能的情况下扩大统治家族/阶层的不同的民族、甚至不同的信仰的从属主体。
所有的美洲国家都有非常明显的殖民源头。当地的土著居民要么被消灭，要么被文化同化，要么被新的精英阶层镇压。尤其是美国，它仍然像一个帝国一样，用自己的军事力量维护世界秩序，并通过炮舰外交来发号施令。但我想这不是殖民帝国吧?
非洲和亚洲的后殖民后帝国主义国家使用欧洲人划定的边界，并明确按照帝国主义条款划定边界。有时，新的精英在他们新的“后殖民帝国”中更善于融合或尊重不同的种族——比如印尼，而其他国家则在斗争，比如尼日利亚、伊拉克等等。对这些国家来说，他们的殖民历史是一件喜忧参半的事情。尽管如此，他们的政府坚持并将保卫他们的殖民边界，即使这需要压制他们自己的少数民族（比如缅甸）。许多(如果不是全部的话)后苏联加盟共和国也属于这一类。
最后，还有一些非“欧洲”的帝国，它们至今仍保留着帝国的领土，也包括压制、文化同化或本土民族的迁移。例如土耳其(库尔德斯坦)、日本(北海道)、泰国、越南(西贡)、俄罗斯(西伯利亚和庞蒂克草原)、中国等等。中国在这里会受到一些抨击，而其他国家可能会因为无人知晓而被忽视。
I think you’re misinformed to think Russia is especially unique here.
最后，应该指出的是，民族统一主义在前苏联加盟共和国非常普遍。人们喜欢指责俄罗斯人，但俄罗斯人实际上是自愿在他们的苏维埃共和国划定新的边界时失去了领土。话虽如此，我想强调的是其他后苏联加盟共和国经常从其他国家那里索要领土。
我建议看看乌兹别克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦之间的冲突。特别是乌兹别克/塔吉克人，当乌兹别克人建立了自己的共和国之时，大量塔吉克人居住的城市(撒马尔罕和布哈拉)也在境内。苏维埃共和国特别是后苏维埃共和国加倍否认/同化/压制塔吉克人。这是帝国主义的一种形式，尽管乌兹别克斯坦是联邦中的一个共和国。见鬼，乌兹别克斯坦的整个西半部也不是乌兹别克人，但由于苏维埃共和国的原始边界，如果他们想要独立，就必须与他们的政府开战。
亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆最近爆发了一场热战。你还记得这个吗?俄罗斯直到最后才介入，停止了敌对行动。再一次，由于古老的部落土地，对阿塞拜疆人的帝国主义主张(加上亚美尼亚帝国主义的实际种族镇压，也源于过去的乐观主义)导致他们与帝国主义的小邻居开战。格鲁吉亚也在名义上统治着非格鲁吉亚民族(阿布哈兹和南奥塞梯人)，尽管这不是当地人的意愿（这证明了他们所谓的“独立”不过是从一个帝国领主换成了另一个）。
我认为你被误导了，以为俄罗斯在这里是独一无二的。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Do you have any articles about your Thailand and Vietnam examples of them still holding imperial territories? I’d just like to learn more about this as I haven’t heard this talked about. I tried looking up things about a Saigon independence movement in the modern day but didn’t find anything.
你有关于泰国和越南的文章吗?我只是想了解更多，因为我还没听说过这个。
我试着查找现代西贡（胡志明市）独立运动的资料，但一无所获。
You are wasted on Reddit
在Reddit上长篇大论是在浪费自己的时间。
Stalin intentionally drew the borders of Central Asia to include large ethnic minorities in those nations with the idea that ethnic conflict would keep them weak and subservient to Moscow
斯大林有意划定中亚的边界，将这些国家的少数民族包括在内，认为种族冲突会让这些国家变得弱小，屈从于莫斯科。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Some countries, like Serbia (and in some ways, Hungary) seem to be more pro-Russia while the rest of the countries seem to be generally pro-EU (or at least pro-Ukraine).
一些国家，如塞尔维亚(在某些方面，还有匈牙利)似乎更亲俄罗斯，而其他国家似乎总体上亲欧盟(或至少亲乌克兰)。
The iron curtain is not coming back it’s actually quite the opposite
No. It's returning for Russia. That is the point.
“铁幕不会回归，实际上恰恰相反”
不，对俄罗斯来说铁幕正在回归，这才是重点。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Did it ever leave for Russia? That’s partially my point. It’s basically just shrunk over time to be just Russia and Belarus
俄罗斯有离开过铁幕吗？
这是我的部分观点。随着时间的推移，它缩小了，只剩下俄罗斯和白俄罗斯。
It's not a choice between on or off because it's not an actual curtain (even if there was a wall in some areas). It's about the political distance. It never completely left but do you not see an actual qualitative difference between now and a few months ago?
这不是开或关的选择，因为它不是一个真正的帷幕。这与政治距离有关。
它从来没有完全离开，你没有看到现在和几个月前的实际的、质的区别吗?
The iron curtain is not coming back it’s actually quite the opposite
Iron Curtain is coming back but only for Russia and Belarus
Sorry but this is a terrible map since it looks like it’s trying to induce fear or something. The iron curtain is not coming back it’s actually quite the opposite
not at all.i am not trying to induce fear,all i showed was the change between the first Cold War and Second Cold War
Russia is now smaller and has fewer allies and puppet states than it ever had
i don't see a regime change for Russia ,due to most Russians being heavily indoctrinated
most likely outcome is that Russia will close itself to the Western World,like it did before
铁幕正在回归，但只针对俄罗斯和白俄罗斯。
你说的完全是错的。我不是在试图引起恐惧，我展示的只是第一次冷战和第二次冷战之间的变化。俄罗斯现在比以前更小了，盟友和傀儡国家也更少了。我不认为俄罗斯会发生政权更迭，因为大多数俄罗斯人都被灌输了很深的思想。
最有可能的结果是，俄罗斯将像以前一样，对西方世界闭关锁国。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
I really don't think Belarus ever left the curtain honestly. Hence why I said it has only receded, but you're claiming it's returning.
You even say that too: "
I guess I shouldn't have said you were stoking fear. However, your title is incorrect. It is not coming back. Russia self-isolating with Belarus, which has never truly left Russia/USSR, isn't the iron curtain; it's simply self-isolation
我真的不认为白俄罗斯有曾离开过铁幕。所以我说它只是消退了，而你却说它正在回归。
我想我不该说你在煽动恐惧。然而，你的标题是错误的。铁幕不会回来了。
俄罗斯与白俄罗斯的自我孤立并不是铁幕，白俄罗斯从未真正离开过俄罗斯/苏联。
这完全是自我孤立。
We did leave the curtain in 1991, but then russian puppet aka Lukashenk* came to power and "ah shit, here we go again"
1991年我们离开过铁幕，但后来俄罗斯傀儡也就是卢卡申科上台了，“啊，该死，又来了。”
The Balkan mini-Russia has no business joining anything
巴尔干半岛，迷你版俄罗斯，它无缘加入任何组织。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
At least learn some facts before spouting idiocies.
在说蠢话之前至少了解一些事实。
They got this pro-Greater Serbia, formerly pro-genocide guy in charge: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandar_Vučić
And they still don’t let go of Kosovo. I’m all for the peaceful cooperation of peoples but Serbia has never seemed to recognize their role in fucking up the Balkans. Most Serbs don’t seem to even understand they might have been the baddies. And they are vocally anti-west and pro-Russia.
EU has no space for revisionists, irredentists and unrepentant war criminals.
他们支持大塞尔维亚，以前支持种族灭绝的人现正掌权，那人正是武契奇。
他们仍然不放弃科索沃。我完全支持各国人民的和平合作，但塞尔维亚似乎从来没有意识到他们在搞乱巴尔干半岛中扮演的角色。
大多数塞尔维亚人似乎甚至不明白他们可能是坏人。他们在口头上反对西方，支持俄罗斯。
欧盟对修正主义者、民族统一主义者和顽固不化的战争罪犯没有容身之地。
They got this pro-Greater Serbia, formerly pro-genocide guy in charge: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandar_Vučić
Wow, thanks for teaching me about Aleksandar Vucic. I, a person born and living in Serbia, absolutely had no clue about him.
That "pro-Greater Serbia" and "pro-genocide" guy is just a demagogical and populistic politician. When it benefited his agenda to talk about killing 100 Bosniaks for each dead Serb, he was very vocal about that idea. When it benefited his agenda to talk about peaceful cooperation between people of the Balkans, he was very vocal about that idea as well.
And they still don’t let go of Kosovo.
And? That's an argument for what, exactly? Geee, people of a country don't want to let go of a territory they consider their own. What. A. Shocker.
I’m all for the peaceful cooperation of peoples but Serbia has never seemed to recognize their role in fucking up the Balkans.
Serbia is not a unified entity with a brain of its own. Also, not a single republic of the SFRY recognizes its role in fucking up the Balkans.
哇奥，谢谢你教我亚历山大·武契奇的事。我，一个出生和生活在塞尔维亚的人，完全不知道他。
那个“支持大塞尔维亚”和“支持种族灭绝”的家伙只是一个蛊惑人心的平民主义政客。当谈到每杀死100名波斯尼亚人就杀死1名塞尔维亚人对他的计划有利时，他对这个想法直言不讳。当谈到巴尔干人民之间的和平合作对他的议程有利时，他也对这个想法直言不讳。
“他们仍然不放弃科索沃。“
所以呢？这结论想说明什么?哎呀，一个国家的人民不想放弃他们认为是自己的领土。很令人吃惊么？
“我完全支持各国人民的和平合作，但塞尔维亚似乎从来没有意识到他们在搞乱巴尔干半岛中扮演的角色。“
塞尔维亚不是一个有自己头脑的统一实体。此外，没有一个共和国承认自己在搞乱巴尔干半岛中扮演的角色。
Most Serbs don't. Most Croats don't either. Neither do Albanians, Slovenians, or Bosniaks. However, a lot of Serbs do recognize the atrocities committed by their own side during the breakup of Yugoslavia. However, a lot of those same Serbs are tired of armchair generals, historians, and politicians (such as you) who tend to view everything as it is a clear-cut black-and-white situation.
And they are vocally anti-west and pro-Russia.
WOW! ALSO A SHOCKER! Imagine that an average Serb living through sanctions, bombings, and being presented as a genocidial maniac for a decade and a spare, doesn't like "the West" and turns to Russia.
EU has no space for revisionists, irredentists and unrepentant war criminals.
Interesting thing that you call Serbs irredentists while at the same time you find nothing wrong with seceeding a part of Serbia due to irredentistic claims of Albanians. That's the definition of hypocrisy if I've ever seen one.
However, it seems that EU has a lot of space for racists and jingoists, because only such a low-life scum of a person would group up an entire nation under an umbrella of dehumanization.
Take a good look in a mirror. Your hate is going to consume you.
Oh, and yeah, do read about these cute little things -
“大多数塞尔维亚人似乎甚至不明白他们可能是坏人。“
多数塞尔维亚人不明白，大多数克罗地亚人也不明白，阿尔巴尼亚人、斯洛文尼亚人和波斯尼亚人同样不明白。不过，许多塞尔维亚人确实承认他们自己在南斯拉夫分裂期间犯下的暴行。然而，同样是这些塞尔维亚人中的许多人已经厌倦了纸上空文的将军、历史学家和政治家(比如你)，你们倾向于把一切都看成是黑白分明的东西。
“他们在口头上反对西方，支持俄罗斯。“
哇！又一段“令人震惊“的话！想象一下，一个普通的塞尔维亚人生活在制裁、轰炸中，十年来被描绘成一个种族灭绝的疯子和一个被抛弃的人，他不喜欢“西方”，转而求助于俄罗斯。（会这样做很奇怪么？）
“欧盟对修正主义者、民族统一主义者和顽固不化的战争罪犯没有容身之地。“
有趣的是，你称塞尔维亚人为民族统一主义者，但同时你发现，由于阿尔巴尼亚人的民族统一主张，让塞尔维亚的一部分脱离出来却没有错。这就是我对虚伪的定义。
然而，欧盟似乎为种族主义者和沙文主义者提供了很大的空间，因为只有这样，一个下层社会的人渣才会把整个国家组织在非人化的保护伞下。
好好照照镜子。你的仇恨会吞噬你。
Bro…
That was really well written imo
伙计，你写的真好。
Thanks. I despise close-minded people.
谢谢，我鄙视思想封闭的人。
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