中国如何规划赢得能源的未来？

@gregkobayashi-mcbryde2402
First, when I was in Beijing in 2019 I was very surprised at how many electric scoters there were. Probably more than half were electric.
Second, it is kind of weird that people always mention human rights and freedom when talking about China but when they talk about the USA they never mention that it has the largest prison population on the planet.

首先，当我2019年在北京时，我对北京有那么多电动踏板车感到非常惊讶，因为大概有一半以上是电动的。
其次，有点奇怪的是人们在谈论中国时总是提到任泉和滋油，但当他们谈论美国时，却从不提及美国拥有全球最多的监狱人口。

@richardhasler6718
China is a relative newcomer to C02 pollution and the historic efforts of Europe and the USA, over many, many decades got us all into difficulty before the Chinese economy even got going. Add to that the efforts of the Chinese to tack swift action to clean up their power generation and transport systems far quicker than Europe or USA suggests that the problem lies elsewhere.

在二氧化碳污染问题上，中国是一个相对较新的国家，而欧洲和美国几十年来所做的历史性努力在中国经济起步之前就已经使我们陷入困境。此外，中国在清洁发电和运输系统方面的迅速行动远远快于欧洲和美国，这表明问题出在别处。

@charlesashurst1816
It can’t be China is better at capitalism than we are. Can it?

中国不可能比我们更擅长资本主义，不是吗？

@Pecisk
Industrialism. Other economic systems can and have produced goods. Problem for West is that their industrial creativity has been replaced by profits all the time. But they can't blame themselves, can they.

原因在于工业化。其他经济体可以而且已经生产出商品，但西方的问题在于他们的工业创造力一直被利润所取代。但他们不能责怪自己，不是吗？

@mangothing1604
Not totalitarianism. It's the government working for the benefit of society. The only difference is that the government decides what's good for society vs. private companies. America needs to get over unfettered capitalism as the panacea for everything.

这不是极权主义，而是政府为社会谋福利，唯一不同的是政府而不是私人公司决定什么对社会有益。美国需要摆脱不受约束的，将其视为包治百病的灵丹妙药的资本主义。

@haroldwood1394
The La Trobe Valley in Australia not only sold off its state-owned coal-fired generation system, but at governmental and unx levels fought against clean renewables. The local communities were deskilled and unemployed; manufacturing moved offshore. 'Proudly designed in Australia' but actually made in China represented much of Australia's technological response.

澳大利亚拉筹伯河谷不仅出售了国有燃煤发电系统，还在政府和工会层面反对清洁的可再生能源。当地社区出现技术退化和失业现象；制造业向海外转移。以"澳大利亚设计"为傲"，但实际上是中国制造"，这代表了澳大利亚的大部分技术对策。

@philflip1963
Dave is so right on this one, decades ago China was portrayed as the climates greatest looming threat due to it's economic/industrial expansion and emissions from coal.
It would be naieve to assume that China is embracing renewables just out of the goodness of it's heart, renewables and electrification are more efficient and make China energy indepencent. Whatever, the case this is good news for us all.
As far as it's growing industrial capacity is concerned, if The West considers this to be a problem then why don't we stop buying what they produce!

Dave说得太对了，几十年前，由于中国的经济/工业扩张和煤炭排放，中国被描绘成气候领域迫在眉睫的最大威胁。
如果认为中国只是出于善意而采用可再生能源，那就太天真了，因为可再生能源和电气化更有效率并能使中国在能源方面独立自主。但无论如何，这对我们来说都是一个好消息。
就其不断增长的工业能力而言，如果西方国家认为这是一个问题，那么我们为什么不停止购买他们生产的产品呢？

@peterh5165
China also embraced eVs because of enormous air pollution in their big cities. A dozen years ago Beijing had some of the worse air pollution: now Beijing has pretty clean air as a result of enacting huge fees on anyone wanting to license a ICE vehicle in Beijing..

中国也因为大城市空气污染严重而大力推广电动汽车。十几年前，北京是空气污染最严重的城市之一：现在，北京的空气已经相当清新，这是因为北京对想在北京获得内燃机汽车牌照的人征收了巨额费用。

@luisostasuc8135
Us US Americans don't have as much of a leg to stand on criticizing human rights abuses, or unfair business practices. Maybe our corporations should stop whining and buying back their own stock and actually invest in workers and physical assets instead.

我们美国人在批评侵犯人权或不公平的商业行为时站不住脚。也许我们的企业应该停止抱怨和回购自己的股票，转而真正投资于工人和有形的资产。

@peterjohn5834
Stunning report. I have traveled to China on many occasions and have witnessed the pollution in the sky and also in the ground water. The Chinese are serious in reducing their emissions and are acting with vigour to improve the lot of their population. In the interim we in the west are hamstrung by politicians lobbying on behalf of oil and gas companies. Our media does not delve deep enough to discover the truth and we are treated like mushrooms. Keep up the great work. Cheers.

令人惊叹的报告。我曾多次来到中国并亲眼目睹了那里的天空和地下水的污染情况。中国人在减少排放方面是认真的，并且正在积极行动以改善人民的生活。在此期间，我们西方国家受到了代表石油和天然气公司进行游说的政客们的束缚。我们的媒体没有深入挖掘真相，我们就像傻子一样被忽视。请继续加油。

@red_skeleton
Tackling climate change should be an all hands on deck/we're all in this together type of moment. The time for anti-China propaganda, reactionary tariffs, crippling embargos and sanctions needs to end. It's too big of a problem for any single country to tackle, we need to learn how to work together (mostly criticizing the aggressive approach of Western foreign policy, if that weren't obvious).

应对气候变化应该是一个全员参与/我们同舟共济的时刻。反华宣传、反动关税、严厉的禁运和制裁的时代必须结束。这个问题太大了，任何一个国家都无法解决，我们需要学会如何合作（主要是批评西方外交政策的激进做法，如果这还不明显的话）。

@kevindrew7621
Great point Red! I’ve been delusionally imagining that the growing resistance to militarism in both Ukraine and Israel/Gaza, just starting to peak this week, could indicate some unconscious symbiotic realization that militarism, unfettered consumer capitalism and corporate/government control will surely DOOM us all - and that each of us, individually and nationally, must choose logical, creative, effective, loving, collaborative pathways forward instead of the “same old, same old” USA Uber Alles.
Hurray for the Chinese people, their govt and their incredible history of making a giant culture work - warts and all!! Please let my delusion be real!

说得好，Red！我一直在幻想乌克兰和以色列/加沙地区对军国主义的抵制日益高涨（本周刚开始达到顶峰），这可能预示着某种无意识的共生意识，即军国主义、不受约束的消费资本主义和企业/政府控制必将毁灭我们所有人--而我们每个人，无论是个人还是国家，都必须选择合乎逻辑的、有创造力的、有效的、充满爱的、合作的前进道路，而不是"千篇一律"的美国至上主义。

为中国人民欢呼，为中国政府欢呼，也为他们将一种巨大的文化发扬光大的不可思议的历史欢呼--无论好坏，请让我的幻想成为现实！

@proffessorclueless
The other reasons not to blame China for its emissions is per capita CO2 and the amount of CO2 emitted to produce items for western consumption.

不指责中国排放的其他原因是人均二氧化碳排放量和为西方生产消费品而排放的二氧化碳量。

@brushlessmotoring
Yeah - I though the pie graph chart for China's emissions would be split into emissions for exported goods vs. internal, you can argue that we are just outsourcing our manufacturing emissions and then pointing the finger and tutting at the country we asked to make everything for us!

是啊--我还以为中国的排放饼图会分为出口商品和国内商品的排放，你可以说我们只是在外包我们的制造排放，然后对我们要求为我们制造一切的国家指指点点！

@bugsygoo
It's crazy here in China. Every week I see a new EV that I've never seen by a brand I've never heard of. I do wonder if they are setting themselves up for yet another bubble by oversupplying the market and everyone getting on the EV bandwagon. There's form for that in China!

中国太疯狂了。每周我都能看到一款我从未见过的新型电动汽车，其品牌我闻所未闻。我确实想知道他们是否会因为市场供应过剩和每个人都加入电动车潮流而陷入又一个泡沫。中国确实曾经发生过这样的事情！

@jhunt5578
That happens in a lot of new markets. Consolidation will happen. Only the best EV makers will survive.

很多新市场都会出现这种情况，整合将会发生，只有最好的电动汽车制造商才能生存下来。

@dpsdps01
That's how Chinese smartphone companies started.
And now, they dominate the market.

中国智能手机公司就是这样起步的。
现在，它们主导着市场。

@user-vo8zx2uj1p
Well on a more obxtive point of view instead of a market point of view, at the end everyone in China will be equipped with ev, and when they'll all have their cars, they'll just develop their economy on yet another sector as it's in the logic of their continuous economic planification, something we seriously need in the west.

从更客观的角度而不是从市场的角度来看，最终中国的每个人都会开上电动汽车。当他们都有了自己的汽车后，他们就会在另一个领域发展经济，因为这符合他们持续的经济计划化的逻辑，而这正是我们西方所急需的。

@rossglory4631
re subsidies, every major country used subsidy and protectionism to initially grow their economies. and most still use them (uk is subsidising companies to set up in the uk after brexit scared them off).

关于补贴，每个主要的国家在经济发展初期都会使用补贴和保护主义，而且大多数国家仍在使用（英国在英国脱欧吓跑企业后，仍在补贴企业在英国设立公司）。

@rodrigomohr1277
China is just far more competitive than the US and Europe. If they are worried about Chinese productivity, they should focus on improving their industrial capabilities.

中国只是比美国和欧洲更具竞争力而已。如果他们担心中国的生产力，就应该把重点放在提高自己的工业能力上。

@dboucher26
I don't see how China incentivizing the purchase and use of EVs is a problem, unless this whole thing is about keeping prices too high for American consumers to finally get quality vehicles at fair prices. I thought our government was big on green energy; what's with all the pushback?

我看不出中国鼓励购买和使用电动汽车有什么问题，除非整件事都是为了让美国消费者最终不能以合理的价格买到高质量的汽车。我还以为我们的政府很重视绿色能源呢，怎么会有这么多阻力？

@ericnoriega547
I would say that this is across the board great news for the world. I think it's fantastic that China is getting on top of the problem of decarbonization, and I think it's wonderful as a model.
And of course there is the but, where I think that China is generally Their Own Worst Enemy when it comes to their behavior beyond their borders. I also think that when I look at how they treat their direct neighbors it gives me real pause. Their claim of the South China Sea ignoring any other claims, their view of Taiwan, the Uyghur, and how they treat the Philippines All of these lead to a feeling of trepidation that once the Dragon is able to take care of its problems at home it will turn its attention to its nearest Neighbors.
As a critique I would mention the systems in Europe and in the United States are rarely viewed at the level of the country or block, but that's exactly what we do with China when we look for the outside. I wonder how wonderful it was for all the people inside of China when these changes were being made unilaterally. I think that the process matters. We wouldn't accept unilateral judgment in our own countries, and I think the fact that they made a good bet at one point can't be fully negated considering what it might have taken to get there. I don't claim to have direct knowledge of that but I think that it's not a one-to-one comparison. Maybe the biggest takeaway is that you can't separate the political situation given the vast difference in societies, it's impossible to come away with a simple view from such a complicated problem. Definitely a good think though.

我想说这对全世界来说都是好消息。我认为中国正着手解决去碳化问题，这真是太棒了，我认为这是一个很好的典范。
当然还有"但"，我认为中国在境外的行为通常是他们自己最大的敌人。我还认为当我看到他们如何对待自己的直接邻国时，我真的会感到不安。他们对南海的声索无视任何其他声索，他们对台湾（地区）、WWE族的看法以及他们对待菲律宾的方式，所有这些都让人感到恐惧，一旦"龙"能够解决其国内问题，它就会将注意力转向其最近的邻国。

作为批评，我想说的是欧洲和美国的制度很少从国家或街区的层面来看待，但当我们从外部来看待中国时，我们正是这样做的。我想知道在单方面进行这些变革的时候，中国国内的所有人都会感到这是多么美好。我认为过程很重要。在我们自己的国家，我们不会接受单方面的判断，我认为不能完全否定他们在某一时刻下了一个好赌注的事实，但要考虑到可能需要付出的代价。我并没有声称对此有直接的了解，但我认为这不是一对一的比较。也许最大的启示是，鉴于社会的巨大差异，你无法将政治局势分开，你不可能从如此复杂的问题中得出一个简单的观点。但这绝对是一个很好的思考。

@marksibley5406
Your analysis seems spot on. Having travelled to China multiple times for business and pleasure I’ve seen the blistering pace of modernization. Especially when travelling outside the major cities you see this change reflected in ultra-modern and the opposite in close proximity. “Borrowing” Intellectual property has been one factor in their rise, but as you point out choices made a decade or more ago have translated first mover advantage into a hard to compete with force - both in manufacturing and R & D.

你的分析似乎很有道理。我曾多次去中国出差和旅游并亲眼目睹了中国现代化的迅猛发展。 尤其是在大城市以外的地方旅行时，你会看到这种变化反映在超现代化及其反面上。"借用"知识产权是他们崛起的一个因素，但正如您所指出的，他们十多年前的选择已将先发优势转化为难以与之抗衡的力量--无论是在制造还是研发方面。

@peterh5165
A lot of screaming and yelling in the US about how China produces twice as much greenhouse gasses as the US. Yet China has four times the population compared to the US and produces the majority of the goods sold in the US (just try to find small generic items NOT made in China). Math obviously not a strong point with many in the US.

在美国，很多人大喊大叫，说中国产生的温室气体是美国的两倍。然而，中国的人口是美国的四倍，中国生产的大部分商品都在美国销售（试着找找不是中国制造的普通小商品）。数学显然不是许多美国人的强项。

@cwd5736
I rather supporting companies with Communism( affordable goods for consumers ) than capitalism ( overpriced goods for consumers). At the end of the day all businesses making money from paycheck worker and poor people. The rich always be richer!

我宁可支持实行共产主义企业（为消费者提供价格合理的商品），也不支持资本主义企业（为消费者提供价格过高的商品）。归根结底，所有企业都在赚领取工资的工人和穷人的钱。富人总是更富有！

@jimgraham6722
For China it's not just about climate change. More importantly however, combustion of fossil fuels was leading to unacceptable levels of city pollution (think LA 1966). Further, China has poor fossil fuel resources and is heavily dependent on imports to power it's economy. That's a great strategic vulnerability.
For China, Tesla came as a revelation. It was quickly realised personal transport could be had without reliance on imported fuel and polluting cities.
The incentives were therefore very strong to change the paradigm. Not only that, China realised there were huge export opportunities as many other countries similarly wanted to transition away from fossil fuels.
As a consequence, China's great capacity to change its industry on a dime came into play. Five or six years on it is all over red rover.

对中国来说，这不仅仅是气候变化的问题。然而，更重要的是化石燃料的燃烧导致了令人无法接受的城市污染（想想1966年的洛杉矶）。此外，中国的化石燃料资源贫乏，经济发展严重依赖进口，这是一个巨大的战略弱点。
对中国来说，特斯拉的出现是一个启示。人们很快意识到无需依赖进口燃料和污染城市，就能拥有个人交通工具。

因此，改变模式的动力非常强劲。不仅如此，中国还意识到存在巨大的出口机会，因为许多其他国家也同样希望摆脱化石燃料。
因此，中国在短时间内改变产业的巨大能力开始发挥作用。五六年过去了，一切就都结束了。

@HighWealder
It's a race to the bottom when it comes to the cost of production, so China wins.

这是一场生产成本的竞相压价的竞赛，因此中国胜出。

@youngwt1
China is not the cheapest place to manufacture any more, however the way they’ve clustered their industry has made their supply chains incredibly hard to beat

虽然中国已不再是最便宜的制造地，但其产业集群方式让他们的供应链难以被击败。

@michasosnowski5918
I am pissed at our politicians(cant name them leaders), who would put interest of our auto companies in front of our own and the climate. Good for you Dave to talk about it obxtively. I would gladly put my finger on one of those, becouse as far as I would love to have Tesla, I need to wait for 3rd market in maybe 10-15 years to get one($$$$).
When it comes to general policy. I would like our politicians to work closely with China, allow them free trade, and stop looking across the big pond for answers(USA). USA at this point is mainly focused on its military, instead of climate. Its dying, and we should not lean or support them in that, rather cut those ties and work with the future, which means China.
But there is so much propaganda and political sh*t going on between our governments that I find it being a challenge...

我对我们的政客（我叫不出他们的名字）感到气愤，他们将汽车公司的利益置于我们自身利益和气候利益之上。Dave，很高兴你能客观地谈论这个问题。虽然我很想拥有特斯拉，但我需要等待10-15年后的三级市场市场才能拥有一辆（$$$$）。
说到总体政策。我希望我们的政治家能与中国紧密合作，允许他们自由贸易，不要再从大洋彼岸（美国）寻找答案。美国目前主要关注军事而不是气候。美国正在走向衰落，我们不应该在这方面向他们倾斜或提供支持，而应该切断这些联系，与未来（也就是中国）合作。

但是，我们的政府之间有太多的宣传和政治废话，我发现这是一个挑战...

@BaldurvanLew
I think the supply issues triggered by the COVID crisis shows us why we shouldn't let everything be manufactured on the other side of the world. In addition while I'm happy that China is making great progress on it's green targets, over-dependency on a country that will not step up and tell it's ally Russia to stop the ongoing invasion of a European country seems rather naive. The advantage to China of that implicit support is cheap fossil fuel.

我认为新冠疫情危机引发的供应问题向我们展示了为什么我们不应该让世界的另一端制造一切。此外，虽然我很高兴中国在实现绿色目标方面取得了巨大的进步，但过度依赖一个不会站出来告诉其盟友俄罗斯停止对一个欧洲国家的持续入侵的国家似乎相当幼稚，而这种隐性支持给中国带来的好处就是廉价的化石燃料。