红迪讨论：中国从战争引发的能源危机中获益最大。自伊朗战争开始以来，中国电动汽车和太阳能电池板的销量激增

Splenda
China is in no position to love this war. Yes, the country was wise to electrify over the past 20 years. It was also smart to turn those EVs, solar modules and wind turbines into export industries. However, it's no blessing to remain dependent on Persian Gulf oil and LNG for fertilizer, fuel, plastics, helium for microchips, and more.
Most of East Asia is already feeling the pinch, with mandatory fuel conservation measures everywhere.

中国没有理由热爱这场战争。诚然，过去二十年里，中国在电气化方面展现了智慧。将电动汽车、太阳能组件和风力涡轮机转化为出口产业也是明智之举。然而，依赖波斯湾的石油和液化天然气来生产化肥、燃料、塑料以及微芯片所需的氦气等，绝非幸事。
东亚大部分地区已经感受到了压力，各地都在实施强制性的燃料节约措施。

mafco
China has 1.4 billion barrels of oil in its reserves and is still getting oil shipments from Iran. It's in a better position to weather this idiotic war than most countries.

中国拥有 14 亿桶石油储备，并且仍在从伊朗接收石油运输。与大多数国家相比，中国更有能力应对这场愚蠢的战争。

Splenda
China has three, maybe four months of oil consumption stockpiled, which is only a little more than the US has, and the US has plenty of oil to produce while China doesn't.
Also, China's larger worry is LNG to make fertilizer and electronics, not to mention all the plastic crap they ship to Walmart.

中国有三到四个月的石油消费储备，这仅比美国多一点点，而美国有大量石油可以生产，而中国没有。
此外，中国更担忧的是用于制造化肥和电子产品的液化天然气，更不用说他们运往沃尔玛的所有塑料垃圾了。

mafco
China doesn't need to ship 'plastic crap to Walmart'. Its exports of energy technology, batteries and EVs are surging. The US is more vulnerable to oil price shocks. Trump's 'energy dominance' strategy has backfired '.

中国无需向沃尔玛运送“塑料垃圾”。其能源技术、电池和电动汽车的出口正在激增。美国更容易受到油价冲击的影响。特朗普的“能源主导”战略适得其反。

Arcosim
China has been frenetically building up its oil strategic reserves like crazy during the past two years, and we're more than a month into this war and they still aren't touching them since they're one of the few countries allowed to transit the strait.
Edit: with that said, it's now a given that China will accelerate their already huge push for alternative energy sources, EVs, and renewables. Before the war they were even pushing their logistic vehicles into electric, now they're going to transition even faster. Watch mid to late 2026 numbers and specially 2027 numbers for renewables and EVs in China go exponential.

过去两年，中国一直在疯狂地扩充石油战略储备。如今战争已持续一个多月，中国仍未动用这些储备，因为它是少数获准通过海峡运输石油的国家之一。
编辑补充：可以预见，中国将加速推进其本就规模庞大的替代能源、电动汽车和可再生能源发展计划。战前，中国已在推动物流车辆电动化，如今这一转型将更为迅速。预计到 2026 年中后期，特别是 2027 年，中国的可再生能源和电动汽车数据将呈现指数级增长。

Eric1491625
China is actually surviving better than Japan, South Korea and other US partners because it is not a US partner.
Traditionally, US allies expected a US that isn't hostile like Trump. A US that would keep the oil flowing.
China always expected that an unfriendly US could turn off the tap at any time. China's energy policies reflect that. Most notably by refusing to lean heavily on the cleaner-than-coal bridge fuel, natural gas. China kept building coal.

实际上，中国比日本、韩国等美国伙伴国更能应对危机，因为它并非美国的盟友。
传统上，美国的盟国期望的是一个不像特朗普领导下的美国那样充满敌意的美国，一个能确保石油稳定供应的美国。
中国始终预料到不友好的美国随时可能切断供应。中国的能源政策反映了这一点，最显著的是拒绝过度依赖比煤炭更清洁的过渡燃料——天然气。中国持续建设煤炭产能。

TadhgOBriain
Once again, China wins by doing nothing.

再一次，中国不费吹灰之力便赢得了胜利。

extrastupidone
China has been winning. And its definitely not "doing nothing"
Theyve become very good.at planning 20+ years ahead and taking advantage of the global need for stuff. And for such a big country, they're.pretry damn agile because they don't have to worry about elections.

中国一直在赢。而且这绝对不是因为其"无所作为"。
他们非常擅长规划 20 年以上的长远发展，并利用全球对物资的需求。对于如此庞大的国家来说，他们相当灵活，因为他们不必担心选举问题。

PageBright2479
It will be a problem for us. Now that they monopolise the supply chains and the market, they can start lifting prices.
This is where the neo liberal model of global trade breaks and doesn't benefit us anymore.

这对我们来说将是个问题。既然他们垄断了供应链和市场，就可以开始抬高价格。
这正是新自由主义全球贸易模式崩溃之处，不再对我们有利。

Kooky_Pangolin8221
They have a near monopoly in solar cell production with near 95% of the world market. They also have absolute or near obsolute market share in some other industries.
Yet, they have not increased their prices in these markets. On the contrary, pv prices are still dropping.

他们在太阳能电池生产领域近乎垄断，占据全球市场近 95%的份额。在其他一些行业，他们也拥有绝对或近乎绝对的市场份额。
然而，他们并未在这些市场提高价格。相反，光伏价格仍在持续下降。

InvestmentTips-
us corporations will gladly rob you left and right, drain every drop of blood you have

美国企业会毫不留情地从你身上榨取每一分利益，吸干你的每一滴血。

supercheetah
China would have preferred that it not happen through a man-made crisis causing global instability, but here we are.

中国本不希望这种局面是通过人为制造的危机导致全球不稳定来实现的，但现实已然如此。

myblueear
I find this permanent race of "who's first", "who dominates", somehow pretty weird. The world just needs to get rid of the petrophiles.

我发现这种永无止境的"谁第一"、"谁称霸"的竞赛，某种程度上相当奇怪。这个世界只需要摆脱那些石油狂热者。

BarkerBarkhan
"We have to beat China!" How? Why? What exactly is this race for?

"我们必须打败中国！"怎么打败？为什么？这到底是为了什么而竞赛？

mercury_pointer
To prove that socialism doesn't work.

为了证明社会主义行不通。

WowBastardSia
That would be so easy though, if the US wanted to prove that socialism 'didn't work' maybe it should leave Cuba alone and let it collapse by itself instead of sanctioning it for 6 decades.
It's probably more than just about 'the socialism', I think.

不过，如果美国真想证明社会主义"行不通"，也许应该放过古巴，让它自行崩溃，而不是对它实施长达六十年的制裁。
我认为，这恐怕不仅仅是"社会主义"的问题。

Entropizzazz
Primary conflict of the 21st century is going to be petrostate vs electrostate.

21 世纪的主要冲突将是石油国家与电力国家之争。

prof_dr_mr_obvious
I am betting on the "free and clean energy" side.

我赌"自由清洁能源"这一方会赢。

mafco
The world's two top economic superpowers are taking distinctly different paths for the future of energy. It's going to affect all of us.

世界两大经济超级大国正为能源未来选择截然不同的道路。这将对所有人产生影响。

MarkyTooSparky
Are we great again?

我们再次伟大了吗？

Plus-Jello-1296
Everything’s expensive, you know…

现在什么都贵，你知道的……

Prestigious-Smoke511
I’m glad I don’t live in China. That’s for sure…

我很庆幸自己不住在中国。这一点是肯定的……

a9udn9u
I don't want to live in the China in western media, China irl is awesome

我可不想生活在西方媒体描绘的中国里，现实中的中国棒极了。

Prestigious-Smoke511
As long as you’re rich. Otherwise you’re living on $2 a day.
I’ll pass.

只要你有钱。否则你每天就只能靠两美元过活。
而我拒绝。

a9udn9u
You have no clue. Chinese middle class population is larger than the entire US population, you can be nether rich nor living on $2 a day.
Besides, being poor in China is safer than being poor in the US

你根本不清楚。中国的中产阶级人口比美国总人口还多，你既不可能极其富有，也不可能每天只靠 2 美元生活。
况且，在中国当穷人比在美国当穷人更安全。

Mustatan
That's not really working out for us though, bond yields keep going up and Treasury auctions are failing, and bond market in trouble. And just printing dollars leads to more inflation and higher borrowing costs, and the US dollar has fallen sharply in central banks holdings, well below half of holdings for first time of since 1946. The petrodollar is a popular meme but it isn't nearly so important in the real world, it hasn't protected us at all from inflation or higher borrowing costs and just printing money leads to disaster. And it often costs us more than we could gain from it. Not to mention it was already disappearing years ago, oil exporters have been routinely selling in non-dollar currencies for years, it just depends on the buyers, like any other transaction.

然而这对我们来说并不奏效，债券收益率持续上升，国债拍卖屡屡失败，债券市场陷入困境。而仅仅印钞会导致更多通胀和更高的借贷成本，美元在央行储备中的占比已大幅下降，自 1946 年以来首次远低于一半。石油美元是个流行的迷因，但在现实世界中远没有那么重要，它根本没有保护我们免受通胀或高借贷成本的影响，而仅仅印钞只会导致灾难。而且它往往让我们付出的代价超过可能获得的收益。更不用说它早在几年前就已经消失了，石油出口国多年来一直常规性地以非美元货币进行销售，这就像任何其他交易一样，取决于买家。

In this case, the protection we were supposed to offer Gulf countries wound up backfiring because it was the US and Israel that started this dumb war of choice as the aggressors firing the first shot, so the GCC wants us out. It'll be a multi-national force in the Middle East from now on, bases and ships rotating in troops from maybe a dozen countries, but as far as the dollar, it won't be so much of a change, countries across the world have been steadily moving away from the dollar for years now. It's more about profligate debt and financial mismanagement in the US, that was a problem even before Trump and now with his disaster administration it's all falling apart at once.

在这种情况下，我们原本打算为海湾国家提供的保护最终适得其反，因为正是美国和以色列作为侵略者打响了第一枪，发动了这场愚蠢的战争，因此海湾合作委员会希望我们离开。从现在起，中东将出现一支多国部队，基地和舰船将轮换来自大约十几个国家的军队，但就美元而言，变化不会太大，多年来世界各国一直在稳步远离美元。这更多是因为美国挥霍无度的债务和财务管理不善，这个问题甚至在特朗普之前就已存在，而现在随着他的灾难性政府，一切都同时崩溃了。

coolkavo
No amount of EV and solar sales are going to mitigate the disaster that is their Real Estate and Infrastructure debt. What it is doing is providing jobs for the people. Let’s not forget the chip and robotics industries that are giving hopes of future revenue. But if Iran destroys the ME oil production and/or if Iran is compelled to concede and brought back into the graces of the whole wide world, China will lose access to cheap oil and may have to turn to Russia who is also losing oil production from the Ukraine war. That and another leg of the Belt and Road Initiative. I do not see this war as a plus for China in any way.

无论电动汽车和太阳能产品的销量如何增长，都无法缓解其房地产和基础设施债务带来的灾难。这些产业所做的，只是为人们提供就业机会。别忘了芯片和机器人产业，它们正带来未来收入的希望。但如果伊朗摧毁中东的石油生产，或者伊朗被迫让步并重新获得全世界的青睐，中国将失去廉价石油的获取渠道，可能不得不转向同样因乌克兰战争而石油产量下降的俄罗斯。再加上"一带一路"倡议的另一条腿，我不认为这场战争对中国有任何好处。

Dreamy-Gates93
US will stand to lose 1000 times more than China.
People in the U.S are already homeless and starving in the streets everywhere, suffering with no healthcare.
This is what the USA looks like right now; imagine after this war how much worse it will get for the country and its people.
Every penny that goes to the war is one less penny that will go to the US people, US infrastructure and the country that desperately needs it.

美国将比中国损失惨重千倍。
美国各地的人们已经无家可归，街头挨饿，缺乏医疗保障，生活困苦。
这就是美国当前的景象；想象一下这场战争之后，这个国家及其人民将陷入何等更糟的境地。
每一分投入战争的资金，都意味着美国人民、美国基础设施以及这个国家急需的资源少了一分。

Mayafoe
Real Estate and Infrastructure debt.
This is a small challenge compared to the overall successes they are achieving. They have about 4 trillion in foriegn reserves and gold... and are running trillion+ annual trade surpluses, which are increasing. They are becoming masters of AI robotics which will mitigate their demographic problem. They make 4 times more electricity than anyone else on the planet and that number is hugely increasing every year, unlike the quagmire of the US.

房地产与基础设施债务。
与他们取得的整体成就相比，这只是一个小小的挑战。他们拥有约 4 万亿美元的外汇储备和黄金……并且每年保持着超过万亿美元的贸易顺差，且这一数字还在不断增长。他们正在成为人工智能机器人技术领域的领军者，这将缓解他们的人口结构问题。他们生产的电力是地球上任何其他国家的四倍，而且这个数字每年都在大幅增长，这与美国的困境形成鲜明对比。

They're going to be the next centre of the world in a way no one has ever seen. Industrial Revolution (electrified) + AI 2.0

他们将成为下一个世界中心，其方式前所未见。工业革命（电气化）+人工智能 2.0。

Mustatan
Yeah the whole Evergrande, real estate ghost cities BS is more manufactured stupidity out of some western outlets. China deliberately over-built in some cities to make housing cheap, because there's a basic belief homes are for living in, not for investment properties or speculation. So China has avoided the housing affordability crisis hitting most of the US, and the fake wealth caused by housing speculation. They deliberately let Evergrande fail because priority is it's homeownership at cheap prices to focus funds on other parts of the economy. Now real estate is rising against slightly in China but kept deliberately moderate, they don't want the fake wealth of housing costs, better to make housing affordable and then focus on actual good parts of the economy.

是的，整个恒大、房地产鬼城之类的胡扯，不过是某些西方媒体炮制的愚蠢言论。中国故意在一些城市过度建设，是为了让住房变得便宜，因为有一个基本信念：房子是用来住的，不是用来投资或投机的。所以中国避免了困扰美国大部分地区的住房负担能力危机，以及由房地产投机引发的虚假财富。他们故意让恒大破产，因为优先考虑的是以低廉价格实现住房自有，以便将资金集中用于经济的其他部分。

现在中国的房地产价格略有回升，但被刻意控制在适度范围内，他们不想要由住房成本带来的虚假财富，更愿意让住房变得可负担，然后专注于经济中真正有益的部分。

Now our own housing bubble in the US is popping and home values and prices are dropping anyway, but in the process we let home prices over-inflate so much we made even basic starter homes unaffordable for a whole generation, QE and the low interest rates around Covid in the US were a total disaster for the whole economy. The home costs are coming down, but way too late for most Americans and too much of the nation's production got tied up in the waste of over-valued homes. So we got the worst of the both worlds. Better to prevent housing bubbles in the first place.

如今，美国的房地产泡沫正在破裂，房价和房产价值正在下跌。然而，在这一过程中，我们放任房价过度膨胀，导致整整一代人连最基本的入门级住房都难以负担。量化宽松政策以及新冠疫情期间美国的低利率对整个经济来说完全是一场灾难。虽然住房成本正在下降，但对大多数美国人来说为时已晚，而且国家的大量生产力被浪费在估值过高的房产上。因此，我们陷入了两难境地。最好从一开始就防止房地产泡沫的产生。

dordofthelings
China fully understands the philosophy that you do not interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake.

中国深谙"敌人犯错时不打断"的处世哲学。

Onaliquidrock
China is the world’s largest importer of oil.

中国是世界上最大的石油进口国。

mafco
Probably not for long. Oil consumption has already peaked in China. More than half of its new car sales are electric.

可能不会持续太久。中国的石油消费量已经达到顶峰。其新车销量中超过一半是电动汽车。

Aggravating-Rush9029
They are likely to reduce their imports but mostly because they are outspending everyone on trying to discover and produce their own oil.

他们可能会减少进口，但这主要是因为他们在勘探和生产本国石油方面的投入超过了所有其他国家。

Decent-Photograph391
Trying? China is the 5th biggest oil producer in the world, before the war even started.
In fact, they produce more oil than Iran, Iraq and UAE.

尝试？中国是世界第五大石油生产国，甚至在战争开始前就已经如此。
事实上，他们的石油产量超过了伊朗、伊拉克和阿联酋。

Mustatan
Yep, and recent new huge discoveries of shale oil, bigger than the US, Canada and ME combined plus a lot more traditional oil. They haven't really tapped it though because costs would exceed benefits, and cause environmental damage. Already in the US, the yields from shale oil and fracking are starting to get very disappointing and much lower than expected, and what's left is getting fast contaminated. Same with for remaining coal fields in the US. All that for the cost of huge damage to the environment and a lot of pollution. Far better, to invest more in renewables.

是的，而且中国最近新发现了巨大的页岩油储量，比美国、加拿大和中东的总和还要多，此外还有大量传统石油。但他们尚未真正开采，因为成本将超过收益，并造成环境破坏。在美国，以水力压裂发开采页岩油的产量已经开始令人非常失望，远低于预期，而剩余的储量正迅速受到污染。美国剩余的煤田也是如此。所有这些都以巨大的环境破坏和大量污染为代价。相比之下，加大对可再生能源的投资要好得多。

mafco
Their oil consumption has begun to decline. China also has 1.4 billion barrels of oil in its reserves, or several times more than the US. And China is still getting oil shipments from Iran. I doubt the country is working very hard on producing its own oil.

他们的石油消费已经开始下降。中国还拥有 14 亿桶石油储备，是美国的好几倍。而且中国仍在从伊朗接收石油运输。我怀疑该国在努力生产自己的石油方面投入了很大精力。

Decent-Photograph391
China is a big oil producer. Fifth in the world. They produce even more than Iran does.

中国是一个石油生产大国，位居世界第五。他们的产量甚至超过了伊朗。

PossibilityFew5967
Aren't like half of them catching on fire though?

不过它们（中国电动汽车）中不是有一半都着火了吗？

Baelaroness
The current ones pass or exceed all EU safety standards, including battery penetration tests.
Not sure if they were death traps in the past or if that was just your average day battling info warfare on the web.

目前的车型均符合或超过所有欧盟安全标准，包括电池穿刺测试。
不确定它们过去是否是死亡陷阱，或者那只是你在网上进行信息战的日常。

Bard_the_Beedle
There’s more than 20 million EVs being sold every year and you think a significant part of them catches on fire? How can you be so blind?

中国每年有超过 2000 万辆电动汽车售出，你却认为其中很大一部分会起火？你怎么能如此盲目？

RagebaiterlMao
Yeah, the Chinese have the best EVs in the world and sell the most thanks to half of them catching fire. Use your brain and stop falling for propaganda.

是啊，中国人拥有世界上最好的电动汽车，销量也最高，这多亏了其中一半都起火。动动脑子，别再被宣传蒙蔽了。

ConferenceBusiness87
Where can I buy Chinese solar panels

哪里可以买到中国太阳能板？

a9udn9u
Buy solar panels, 90% chance they are Chinese

随便购买太阳能电池板，90%的几率它们是中国制造的。

Automatic_Table_660
China makes about 90% of the world’s solar cells. They’re also highly automated, so the odds of another country catching up (at a cheaper price) is very slim.

中国生产了全球约 90%的太阳能电池。而且这些工厂高度自动化，因此其他国家以更低价格追赶的可能性微乎其微。

Apprehensive_Tea9856
Most brands are Chinese in the US. If it sounds Chinese, it's Chinese. We do have US made solar panels.
Now as for EV, the answer is you can't buy Chinese. We have safety laws and tariffs keeping Chinese EVs out. For now

在美国，大多数太阳能板的品牌都是中国的。如果听起来像中国品牌，那它就是中国的。虽然我们确实有美国制造的太阳能电池板。
至于电动汽车，答案是你买不到中国制造的。我们有安全法规和关税壁垒将中国电动汽车挡在门外。目前如此。

throwawayurwaste
Pretty much any solar panel you buy is made in China, if you want the cheapest solar panels look for used. Either online resalers or local Facebook marketplaces. Used panels are still around 90~80% effective but are around 20% of the price due to the lack of warranty

你购买的几乎所有太阳能电池板都产自中国，如果你想要最便宜的太阳能电池板，可以寻找二手货。无论是线上转售商还是本地 Facebook 市场，二手电池板的效率仍保持在 90%~80%左右，但由于缺乏保修，价格仅为新品的 20%左右。