For the first time in decades, American jets, tankers, and AWACS have been damaged at scale. Iran’s attrition strategy is changing the rules of the air war
 
几十年来，美国战机、加油机和预警机首次遭受如此大规模的损伤。伊朗的消耗战战略正在改变空战规则。
 
During nearly six weeks of the war on Iran, the US has suffered heavy military aircraft losses, now exceeding those recorded during the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Iran’s recent downing of an American F-35 jet marks the first time in 23 years that a US fighter jet has been shot down in combat; the previous instance was in Iraq in 2003, when an A‑10 was lost.
 
在与伊朗的近六周战争中，美国军用飞机损失惨重，如今已超过2003年入侵伊拉克期间的损失。伊朗最近击落一架美国F-35战机，这是23年来美国战斗机首次在战斗中被击落；上一次发生这种情况是在2003年的伊拉克战争中，当时一架A-10战机被击落。
 
Over the seven years of the Iraq campaign from 2003 to 2009, total US aviation losses amounted to 129 helicopters and 24 fixed‑wing aircraft, with only 46 attributed to hostile fire. The remaining cases were due to malfunctions, fuel exhaustion, and pilot error.
 
在2003年至2009年长达七年的伊拉克战争中，美军航空兵共损失129架直升机和24架固定翼飞机，其中仅有46架死于敌方火力。其余损失均由故障、燃油耗尽和飞行员操作失误造成。
 
Since the start of the Iran war, the US has lost at least 44 aircraft, including the first incident of the US fifth-generation stealth F-35 Lightning II being hit. The list includes four F-15E Strike Eagle (the Wall Street Journal cited a fact sheet stating that the original model costs at least $31 million, while the cost of newer models is close to $100 million), two A-10 Thunderbolt IIs, two Lockheed C-130 Hercules, two Boeing E-3 Sentries, eight Boeing KC-135 Stratotankers, one Boeing CH-47 Chinook, one Sikorsky HH-60 Pave Hawk (damaged), two Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawks (damaged), four MH-6 Little Bird helicopters, and 17 General Atomics MQ-9 Reapers (each costing over $500 million).
 
自伊朗战争爆发以来，美国至少损失了44架飞机，其中包括美国第五代隐形战斗机F-35“闪电II”首次被击落。
损失的飞机还包括：
4架F-15E“攻击鹰”（《华尔街日报》援引一份情况说明书称，该型号的单价至少为3100万美元，而新型号的单价接近1亿美元）、2架A-10“雷电II”攻击机、2架洛克希德C-130“大力神”运输机、2架波音E-3“哨兵”预警机、8架波音KC-135“同温层加油机”、1架波音CH-47“支奴干”直升机、1架西科斯基HH-60“铺路鹰”（受损）、2架西科斯基UH-60“黑鹰”（受损）、4架MH-6“小鸟”直升机以及17架通用原子公司MQ-9“死神”无人机（每架单价超过5亿美元）。
 
High-value AWACS and multiple KC-135 tankers were damaged by Iranian strikes on regional airbases.  In the first four days of the war, Iran hit almost all US military bases (or locations hosting US aircraft) in the Gulf. It struck key US ground radars lixed to the THAAD air‑defense system, other early‑warning radars, and multiple radar and communication nodes.
 
伊朗对地区空军基地发动袭击，造成多架高价值预警机和KC-135加油机受损。战争爆发后的前四天，伊朗几乎袭击了海湾地区所有美军基地（或驻有美军飞机的地点）。伊朗还袭击了与“萨德”防空系统相连的关键美军地面雷达、其他预警雷达以及多个雷达和通信节点。
 
At Bahrain’s Al‑Jufair base, two radar domes housing AN/GSC‑52B SATCOM systems were destroyed by Shahed‑2 drones, according to US press reports.
In the UAE, an area of Al Dhafra base with several satellite antennas was hit, while it is still unclear whether the AN/TPY‑2 radar of the THAAD system at Al Ruwais was damaged. In Kuwait, structures at Ali Al Salem base connected to SATCOM systems were damaged, and at least three radar domes at Camp Arifjan were destroyed.
 
据美国媒体报道，巴林朱费尔空军基地两座装有AN/GSC-52B卫星通信系统的雷达罩被“沙赫德-2”无人机摧毁。
在阿联酋，达夫拉空军基地一处设有多个卫星天线的区域遭到袭击，目前尚不清楚位于鲁瓦伊斯空军基地的“萨德”系统AN/TPY-2雷达是否受损。在科威特，阿里萨利姆空军基地与卫星通信系统相连的设施遭到破坏，阿里夫詹营地至少三个雷达罩被摧毁。
 
At Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan base, at least one strike hit a satellite‑communications area where an AN/TPY‑2 radar had previously been deployed. The large AN/FPS‑132 fixed‑face AESA early‑warning and long‑range anti‑ballistic radar at Al Udeid in Qatar also appears to have been struck. Iranian sources further claim damage to another AN/TPY‑2 at Muwaffaq Salti base in Jordan, though this remains unconfirmed. In Kuwait, in addition to damage to some structures at the Ali al Salem base that appear to be connected to SATCOM systems, at least three radar domes at Camp Arifjan were destroyed.
 
在沙特阿拉伯的苏丹王子基地，至少有一处卫星通信区域遭到袭击，该区域此前部署了一部AN/TPY-2雷达。位于卡塔尔乌代德的大型AN/FPS-132固定式有源相控阵预警及远程反弹道雷达似乎也遭到袭击。
伊朗方面声称，约旦穆瓦法克萨尔蒂基地的另一部AN/TPY-2雷达也遭到破坏，但这一说法尚未得到证实。在科威特，除了阿里·萨利姆基地一些似乎与卫星通信系统相关的建筑物遭到破坏外，阿里夫詹营地的至少三个雷达罩也被摧毁。
 
Most of these high‑value radars – along with aerial refuellers and AEW&C assets – were targeted using ballistic missiles or relatively inexpensive Shahed drones (around $50,000 each).
 
这些高价值雷达以及空中加油机和预警机等资产大多成为弹道导弹或相对便宜的“沙赫德”无人机（每架约 5 万美元）的攻击目标。
 
While US lost many high-value ground assets in the region and nearly 44 aircraft, Israel had minimal losses on the ground and only slow-moving UAVs in the air. Israel is a regional player, and has had years of experience in targeting ground assets in Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Lebanon, among others. Israel has been perpetually at war. Being a small country, it has been conscious of securing its assets under hardened shelters. It has nearly ten Iron Dome-class AD systems, among others, such as David’s Sling and Arrow. The Israeli Air Force has fine-tuned tactics to keep its own assets secure.
 
尽管美国在该地区损失了大量高价值地面资产和近44架飞机，但以色列的地面损失微乎其微，空中损失也仅限于一些速度较慢的无人机。
以色列是该地区的重要力量，在打击伊拉克、伊朗、叙利亚和黎巴嫩等国的地面目标方面拥有多年的经验。以色列长期处于战争状态。作为一个小国，它一直非常重视保护自身资产，并为其建造坚固的掩体。
以色列拥有近十套“铁穹”级防空系统，以及其他防空系统，例如“大卫投石索”和“大卫之箭”。以色列空军已经制定了完善的战术来确保自身资产的安全。
 
The reasons behind US losses
The Iranian Air Force was grounded or destroyed in the early air action by the US and Israel, which have flown more than 10,000 combat flights since the conflict began. The Iranian Air Force was no match for the US Air Force in terms of numbers and technology. While a significant number of Iranian air defenses were also neutralized, enough survived to engage adversary assets.
 
美军失利的原因
在冲突爆发初期，美以两国已进行了超过1万架次的空袭，伊朗空军几乎全部被击落或摧毁。伊朗空军在数量和技术上都无法与美国空军匹敌。虽然伊朗的大量防空系统也被摧毁，但仍有部分幸存下来，足以对敌方目标发起攻击。
 
In view of powerful radar jamming capabilities with the US and Israel, Iran mostly used IRST (infra-red search and track) systems to track and IR missiles to engage and shoot down aircraft.  Iran’s strategy aimed to create a “war of attrition” to increase costs for the US and its allies – despite clear US air superiority.
 
鉴于美国和以色列拥有强大的雷达干扰能力，伊朗主要使用红外搜索跟踪系统（IRST）追踪目标，并使用红外导弹拦截和击落飞机。尽管美国拥有明显的空中优势，伊朗的战略旨在发动一场“消耗战”，以增加美国及其盟友的作战成本。
 
The fact that F-35 stealth fighter jet could be tracked and engaged indicates the possibility of Iran having used Chinese YLC-8B and YLC-8E advanced, mobile Chinese UHF-band 3D surveillance radars specifically designed to detect low-observable, stealth aircraft. Iran might have also used up-to-date intelligence from Russian satellites, often including the position of airborne aircraft.
 
F-35隐形战斗机能够被追踪和拦截，这表明伊朗有可能使用了中国先进的YLC-8B和YLC-8E型移动式超高频三维监视雷达，这些雷达专门用于探测低可探测性隐形飞机。伊朗也可能使用了来自俄罗斯卫星的最新情报，其中通常包括空中飞机的位置信息。
 
The US lost more aircraft in the air due to a lack of coordination with the Gulf countries, where most of its assets are located. Also, more action has shifted south near the Strait of Hormuz, and when Iran started hitting assets in the countries that allowed housing US assets. Many of their radars and large air platforms were lying in the open. These assets were thus a relatively easy target. Iranians used drones and drone swarms to hit US military assets.
 
由于与海湾国家缺乏协调，美国损失了更多空中飞机，而其大部分军事资产都位于这些国家。此外，更多军事行动转移到了霍尔木兹海峡以南，伊朗开始袭击那些允许美国部署军事资产的国家。许多美国雷达和大型空中平台都暴露在外，因此这些资产相对容易成为攻击目标。伊朗人使用无人机和无人机群袭击了美国军事目标。
 
While the US Air Force and Navy have been exercising regularly with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, including “large force engagements,” the GCC nations have had almost no combat experience. Early coordination challenges with Gulf host nations, contributed to incidents like the initial friendly-fire loss of three F-15Es over Kuwait.
 
尽管美国空军和海军一直与海湾合作委员会（GCC）国家定期举行联合演习，包括“大规模兵力演练”，但海湾合作委员会国家几乎没有实战经验。早期与海湾东道国的协调困难导致了诸如在科威特上空发生的三架F-15E战机被友军误伤等事件的发生。
 
While the US campaign initially succeeded in degrading Iranian air defenses and leadership, it encountered serious operational and strategic failures as the conflict continued. The US underestimated Iranian defenses and tactics. Reports indicate that Tehran could have 50% of its missile launchers and drones intact.
 
尽管美国的军事行动初期成功削弱了伊朗的防空能力和领导层，但随着冲突的持续，其在作战和战略层面遭遇了严重的失败。美国低估了伊朗的防御能力和战术。有报道称，德黑兰可能仍有50%的导弹发射装置和无人机完好无损。
 
Iranian forces successfully hid mobile air defense systems in tunnels and bunkers, allowing them to ambush US planes, proving it was not a one-sided conflict. Clearly, Washington’s “quick war” assumption had failed, turning the campaign into a long war of attrition. Iran also leveraged regional proxies, investing in low-cost drones, and threatening the Strait of Hormuz.
 
伊朗军队成功地将移动防空系统隐藏在隧道和掩体中，从而能够伏击美军飞机，这证明这场冲突并非一边倒。显然，华盛顿“速战速决”的设想已经失败，这场战役演变成了一场旷日持久的消耗战。伊朗还利用地区代理人，投资研发低成本无人机，并对霍尔木兹海峡构成威胁。
 
Iran successfully targeted US military installations across the region, including in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq, causing significant casualties. This demonstrated that US air dominance did not equate to security on the ground. Tehran relies heavily on inexpensive, locally produced drones like the Shahed, costing $20,000–$50,000, to overwhelm sophisticated, expensive air defenses as part of asymmetric warfare. Iran is fostering closer military ties with Russia, supplying drones in exchange for advanced technologies such as the S-400 system.
 
伊朗成功袭击了该地区的多个美军设施，包括位于巴林、卡塔尔、科威特和伊拉克的设施，造成重大人员伤亡。这表明，美国的空中优势并不等同于地面安全。
德黑兰严重依赖价格低廉、国产的无人机，例如售价在2万至5万美元之间的“沙赫德”无人机，以突破复杂昂贵的防空系统，进行非对称作战。伊朗正在加强与俄罗斯的军事联系，以无人机换取S-400系统等先进技术。
 
The US repeated mistakes from previous conflicts (Afghanistan, Iraq) by relying solely on aerial destruction without a viable, clear “day-after” political strategy to replace the targeted regime. Despite neutralizing senior leadership, the “rally-around-the-flag” effect became visible.
 
美国重蹈覆辙，在以往的冲突（阿富汗、伊拉克）中犯下同样的错误，仅仅依赖空中打击，而没有制定切实可行的、清晰的“战后”政治战略来取代目标政权。尽管打击行动消灭了目标政权的高级领导人，但“团结在国旗周围”的效应依然显现。
 
The conflict has already exhausted US military resources significantly, including high-value assets like Tomahawk missiles and Patriot interceptors, creating shortages in other critical theaters such as Europe and Asia. Most NATO members refused to join or help in replenishments. The global economic downturn caused by the war has been of great concern and is likely to have played a role in the ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump.
 
这场冲突已严重消耗了美国的军事资源，包括战斧导弹和爱国者拦截导弹等高价值装备，导致欧洲和亚洲等其他关键战区出现物资短缺。大多数北约成员国拒绝参与或协助补给。战争造成的全球经济衰退令人担忧，很可能也是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布停火的原因之一。