红迪：中国如何将不毛之地变为绿色长城！

theroch_
That looks back breaking work

这活儿看着就挺累的。

vivaaprimavera
It is. But they are already seeing results and developing new techniques that look promising.

确实。但他们已经看到效果了，而他们还正开发新技术，看起来很有前途。

Shenloanne
It's the Chinese century.

现在是中国世纪了。

__redruM
Not after decades of the one child policy. There’s a demographic crash coming when their GenX and Milinials start to age out of the workforce. Think about the similar issue Japan is currently having but much worse. Allowing immigration will fix it, but that’s unlikely.
Edit: Here is where I heard about this issue: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AultJcNb90c

别忘了还有几十年的独生子女政策呢。等他们的X世代和千禧一代开始退出劳动力市场时，人口危机就来了。想想日本现在面临的类似问题，但他们情况会更严重。允许移民可以解决这个问题，但这不太可能。

SippinOnHatorade
It’s not quite immigration, but they did just institute a visaree program so could be trending in that direction

倒不完全是移民，但他们确实刚推出了个签证政策，所以可能是朝那个方向发展的趋势。

DuckCleaning
That's just 30 days visa free for people from those countries to encourage tourism

那只是对部分国家开放30天免签，就是想促进他们的旅游业。

SippinOnHatorade
Yeah and they have student visas that last semesters, and work visas that last longer, and now that casual tourists don’t need to apply for visas to visit, one would think more student and work visas could be processed

是啊，他们有按学期算的学生签证，还有期限更长的工作签证。现在普通游客连签证都不用申请就能来了，因此学生签和工作签的通过量按理说也应该会增加。

Radiskull97
I lived in China during COVID. China got an especially bad reputation with immigrants during this time. China was blaming foreigners for outbreaks and it stoked a lot of discrimination. In Hangzhou, there was a front page story titled " Sorting the Foreign Trash." My wife was assaulted twice in a hate crime. People lost their businesses and homes. I was getting paid by the Chinese government to live and go to school there but there's nothing they could pay me to go back

疫情期间我住在中国。那段时间中国在移民群体里的名声特别差。中国总把疫情暴发怪到外国人头上，引发了大量歧视。在杭州，有篇头版文章标题叫《分类外国垃圾》。我老婆两次遭到攻击的仇恨犯罪。有人没了生意、没了房子。我当时是中国政府出钱让我在那儿读书生活的，但现在，给我多钱我也不去了。

callisstaa
Crazy how much things changed. I've lived in China for 3 years post Covid and have never had any shit off anyone, quite the opposite in fact.

真没想到变化这么大。疫情后我在中国呆了三年，从来没遇到过任何人对我不客气，反倒是很友好。

Radiskull97

You must have gotten there right when we were leaving. That is interesting how fast it changed. We were there 2019022 in Hangzhou and Shanghai. What made us ultimately leave were neighbors in our compound threatening to call the police and tell them we were breaking quarantine procedures (we weren't). Waiting in the queue for the COVID testing, people would be blaming us for there still having cases. I had a teenage boy say to me "you strangers are killing us." They had completely barricaded the compound and had it staffed with cops, sometimes military, but even the 保安 wasn't allowed to man the gate. Couldn't get reliable food and water. I really thought that was all part of *'s plan to chase out foreigners and deesternize. Weird how quick they changed the messaging

那你肯定是我们走之后去的。怎么可能这么快就变了，有意思。2019-2022年我们在杭州和上海。最后让我们决定离开的是，是小区里的邻居威胁要报警，说我们违反隔离规定（实际上并没有）。排队做核酸的时候，大家总埋怨我们，说都是因为外国人才出现这种病。有个十几岁的男孩对我说：“就是你们这些外国人要害我们的。”小区被完全封住，门口有警察、有时甚至军人守着，连保安都不让守门。食物和水都供应不上。我当时真觉得这都是***的计划，就是想把外国人都赶走、去西方化。很奇怪他们怎么这么快就转变了说法。(***名字或政党 上下同)

callisstaa
Yeah I’m in the same area as well, in Suzhou. I’ve had the usual people coming up to talk to me and ask where I’m from etc to drinking in a bar and being told not to worry about it when going to pay the bill. I’ve also often had people invite me to their table and offer to pay for all my drinks.
Official Government policy is that they’re trying to dewesternize but all the malls had massive Christmas trees and there were huge Halloween parties last year, especially in Shanghai. It does seem like a pretty big U turn and I guess I came at just the right time.

我就在你们那附近，在苏州。平常就是有人过来聊聊天，问我是哪里人之类的，偶尔在酒吧喝酒，结账时人家说不用管了。还经常有人请我去他们桌，还要帮我付酒钱。
官方政策是在去西方化，但商场里到处都是巨型圣诞树，去年还有超大的万圣节派对，上海尤其热闹。感觉像是来了个大转弯，我算是赶上了好时候。

Reddit_reader_2206
weird. because it's such a small country...

奇了怪了，毕竟中国这么小一个国家……

callisstaa
Read the comments, we were both in Shanghai area.

看评论，感觉我们俩都在离上海不远。

candybuttons
would you recommend it? seriously have been considering it

那推荐去吗？我是真心在考虑。

callisstaa
Absolultely. I've had a great experience here and have saved a lot of money as well.
I've also known people who hated it but I think the key is to do your research before coming. Most of the people who don't have a great time here either work in a shitty place or live in a shitty city. A lot of largew cities here are pretty boring with not a lot to do and a lot of jobs here can be pretty gruelling even though the pay is good.
Look into cities and decide where you want to live. I love Suzhou because it's a fun city with a lot of interesting history, also it's about 30 mins from Shanghai or 1h30 from Hangzhou and Nanjing by train. Shanghai is honestly a little overwhelming for me so living somewhere smaller with a slower pace of life suits me better. Chengdu is also a great city and is close to Chongqing. Anywhere in Yunnan province is nice, Sanya is a resort city often called Chinese Hawaii, xinjiang has endless plains and mountains.
If you're transferring through your company make sure to be fully aware of the conditions of your transfer. If you're applying for work as a teacher etc here be sure to read up on the school and agency to ensure you're not just going to get thrown in the deep end with little to no support.
The biggest issue as you can imagine is the language barrier but there is a lot of English here. All train/metro stations and most malls, scenic spots, restaurants here have English signage. People here are really friendly and helpful and living is really cheap. Most jobs come with a free apartment so you can save most of your income.
It's also worth noting that being white helps a lot. I know quite a few gay people here and Chengdu has a huge gay scene if that's your thing.
It's also really safe here. You can leave your phone behind somewhere accidentally and go back to get it an hour later and it will still be there. There is very little violent crime.

非常推荐。我在这里的经历很好，还攒了不少钱。
我认识的好多人都不喜欢这里，但我认为关键是要来之前做好功课。大部分在这里待得不开心的人，主要是要么是工作的地方不怎么样，要么是所在城市不行。好多大城市是挺无聊，没什么好玩的，有些工作虽然工资高，但很累人。
建议先研究一下城市，决定你想住在哪里。我喜欢苏州，因为这座城市很有趣，历史底蕴丰富，而且坐火车到上海只要30分钟，到杭州、南京大概一个半小时。上海对我来说有点太闹了，所以一个更小、节奏更慢的地方更适合我。成都也很不错，离重庆很近。云南无论哪个地方都很美，三亚是个度假城市，那里常被叫做中国夏威夷，还新疆有无尽的平原山川。

如果你是公司外派过来的，一定要搞清楚外派条件。如果是来当老师之类的工作，务必查清楚学校和中介的情况，免得踩坑没人管。
最大的问题肯定是语言障碍，但这边英语普及度还行。所有火车站、地铁站，大部分商场、景点、餐厅都有英文标识。这里的人都很友好，还乐于助人，生活成本很低。大多数工作都提供免费住房，所以工资基本都能攒下来。

另外值得提一句，白人身份确实挺管用的。我认识不少在这儿生活的同性恋朋友，成都的同性恋文化很盛行，如果你喜欢的话。
治安也很好。你随手把手机网忘放哪儿了，一小时后再回去找，肯定还在那里。暴力犯罪几乎为零

Radiskull97
Yeah I actually use that story when meeting with Republican legislators and basically say, "do you wanna be like China? Then we need due process"

对，我总见到共和党议员经常拿这个故事说事，基本就是说：“你们想变得跟中国一样吗？不想的话，就好好守规矩。”

isabelletremblayoff
Ft thats fcked up. Here in Canada, it was Canadians blaming the Chinese and portraying toward them the same kind of hate you lived through. On a personal experience, there was even a sushi shop owned by a Chinese family existing for over 20 years in my city that struggled to stay open and nearly closed down, because the locals accused the owners having brought the virus to the city from their country.... despite the family never having left Canada for over 20 years.... Thankfully, there was enough people bringing back wisdom and pointing out the family had nothing to do with the outbreak, so it's still going on strong today as a successful business...
Just goes to show how much shit happens when we are led by accusations and misconceptions instead of actually stopping for a second and talk with one another.

这也太恶心了。在加拿大，这里的人指责中国人，把同样的仇恨发泄到他们身上。就我个人经历来说，我所在的城市有一家开了二十多年的华人家庭开的寿司店，差点开不下去，因为当地人指责店主，说是他把病毒从他们国家带到了这座城市……而实际上那家人已经二十多年没离开过加拿大了…… 好在还是有不少人恢复了理智，指出那家店和疫情暴发毫无关，所以现在那家店生意还是很红火……

这说明当人们被指责和误解牵着鼻子走，而不是停下来好好沟通的时候，仇恨就会发生。

cricketyjimnet
There's only two places they can bring people from to replace their several hundred million person deficit.
And they won't allow people from those places. So....

能填补他们好几亿人口空缺的地方只有两个。
但他们不会允许那些地方的人进来。所以……

SippinOnHatorade
China is known to be slow to change, but quick to adopting it once the decision has been made. Like, overnight sensation type thing, and not always in a good way. But this is to say, they can achieve a lot in a short time

众所周知，中国变化速度很慢，但他们一旦下定决心，执行起来又很快。一夜之间就能翻天覆地，这种变化不总是好事。但至少说明，他们可以在短时间内做成很多事儿。

oppaiolice
I think it's short sighted to simply say they will fail without questions. Yes, one child policy is a self inflicted wound, and it comes during a time when no one, not even the Chinese themselves, could've predicted just how fast they will develop. The silver lining is, they have been very fast in adapting technology to the common mass. The issue with aging population is no one to take care of the elderly. This can be addressed with automation. We are already seeing robotics with complex movement and programming, it's not a pipe dream to say we can have robot caretakers in the future. Allowing immigrantion is a temporary solution, because those immigrants will very quickly face the same economics pressure as the local people, and there's no guarantee they'll have children. Also, those immigrants will get old, which add to the old people problem before, unless China decide to work them to the bone and kick them out. Mass migration is a bad and temporary bandage solution. A country must plan to have sustainability over time. China already have too much people, the solution isn't to hemorrhage labour force from other countries.

我认为你简单地断言他们会失败绝对是目光短浅。没错，独生子女政策确实是个问题，但在当时，没有人，就连中国人自己，都无法预料到他们会发展得这么快。好的一面是，他们在将技术普及给大众这方面行动非常迅速。老龄化人口的问题在于没人照顾老人。但这可以通过自动化来解决啊。我们已经看到具备复杂动作和编程能力的机器人，所以说未来能有机器佣人并非梦想。允许移民只是暂时的解决方案，因为这些移民很快也会面临与本地人相同的经济压力，而且无法保证他们想生孩子。此外，这些移民也会变老，这反而会加重原有的人口老龄化问题——除非中国决定把他们榨干之后再赶他们走。大规模移民是一个糟糕且暂时的权宜之计。一个国家必须有长远的可持续规划。中国人已经太多了，解决方案绝不是从其他国家抽血补充劳动力。

shiro_1602
They could start adopting American children whose mothers can't take care of them, but were unlucky enough to live in a red state.

他们可以开始收养美国的那些母亲无力抚养的孩子，只不过这些孩子不幸生在了红州。

mr_trick
I'm now imagining an eatrayove type coming of age story where a twentyomething from China travels to rural Kentucky to "rediscover their roots"

我现在脑子里浮现出一部外乡人式的成长故事：一个二十多岁的中国人跑到肯塔基州的乡下去“寻根”

vivaaprimavera
And running away in horror?

然后被吓跑了？

Voodoo_Masta
Well, look at their robotics and project that forward a couple decades. The old rules don't apply.

嗯，看看他们的机器人技术，再想想几十年后。旧规则已经不适用了

El_Lanf
It sounds wild, but I wouldn't be surprised if they make huge breakthroughs on Bio science stuff like cloning or full artificial birthing. They've been doing a lot of research in field with stuff like gene editing, I can see them letting that genie out of the bottle.

这听起来很疯狂，但如果他们在生物科学领域取得巨大突破，比如克隆或完全人工生育，我一点也不会惊讶。他们在基因编辑领域做了很多研究，我看他们很可能会把这个“精灵”从瓶子里放出来。

Longjumping_Egg_5654
Except they are vastly behind in chip production and are struggling to keep up.
Depending on how the war in Iran goes they are going to be dependent on the US oil trade and I can’t imagine the US is going to play nice.
The achievements of China are extremely impressive but between exposure of the property industry scams, the rapidly growing middle class, demographic issues, resource issues and xi’s political infighting (purging military officials who didn’t agree with him). China is headed for tribulations just like much of the world.
Honestly with how reliant everyone is on logistics and connections, outside of a few key technologies being produced I doubt any nation will have its own century of control so easily anymore.

只不过中国在芯片制造领域差距巨大，一直落后。
伊朗局势走向，决定中国对美国主导的石油贸易依赖程度，而美国方面绝不会善罢甘休。
中国取得的成就虽然耀眼，但他们房地产问题、中产规模激增、人口结构危机、资源短缺，再加上高层政治内斗（清洗政见不合的军方官员），种种问题叠加之下，中国和世界多数国家一样，未来困难重重。

说实话，如今全球物流与产业链深度绑定，即便少数核心技术掌握在手，也很难再有哪个国家能轻松主宰一个时代。

Voodoo_Masta
They are also within spitting distance of the world’s greatest chip manufacturer, on an island they have been threatening to invade for years, and the US has created a permission structure for them to do so by reviving all this Monroe Doctrine horseshit. So if they are vastly behind in chip production… I could be ignorant but that could change pretty quickly.

全球顶尖芯片大厂就在离他们近在咫尺的一座岛上，而中国一直要武力收复；美国又重拾门罗主义那套荒唐说辞，反倒变相给了中国动手的借口。所以即便眼下芯片制程落后……或许是我见识浅薄，但局势随时可能翻转。

Best_Pseudonym
Chips manufacturing plants being famously resistant to bombings

众所周知，芯片工厂可是禁不起炸的。

Voodoo_Masta
They probably wouldn't want to bomb that, but if they did, they hobble the US, which more or less has the same effect of putting the two countries on a more equal footing.

中国也没想啊，但一旦这么做，就能对美国产业造成重大打击，差不多能让两国实力重新拉平。

Lindvaettr
But the US could bomb them. The US is pushing USased chip manufacturing and has been for a good several years now. The US doesn't need to outpace Taiwan, they just need to outpace China. If China takes Taiwan, the US could bomb Taiwan's chip manufacturing facilities and now no one has access to them. That takes everyone back a few steps, but if the US is two steps ahead of China, they're two steps less far behind.

但美国可以反过来去炸啊。这么些年来美国一直在推动本土芯片产能回流，根本没必要超越台湾（地区），只需领先中国就行。一旦中国拿下台湾（地区），美国就直接炸毁台湾（地区）那里的芯片工厂，全球都会断供倒退。虽说大家一起受伤，但只要美国本身比中国领先一步，他们就落后了。

ExoticMangoz
Conceivably the US could soon be in a position where successfully defending Taiwan is impossible or so costly that it is too unpalatable.

可以预见，美国可能很快就会处于这样一种境地：即保卫台湾（地区）要么不可能，要么代价高得难以接受。

codeoffee
China has disassembled lithography machines and other such technology and still can't match it. There's a lot of specialty knowledge beyond the physical hardware that matters when pushing the bounds of physics. Chip manufacturing and metallurgy are black arts with theoretical science often taking a backseat to the lore of trial and error. You'd be surprised how many implementations of automation are cowboy endeavors.

中国拆了光刻机这类设备，但还是比不上。在突破物理极限方面，除了硬件之外，还有很多关键专业知识。芯片制造和冶金学就像黑魔法，理论科学常常得为反复试错的经验让路。你会惊讶于有多少自动化实现起来像是“牛仔工程”。

fluffywabbit88
That’s why they also lead in robotics r&d.

所以他们也在机器人研发领域处于领先地位啊。

StationEmergency6053
You should look into the humanoid robot armies theyre building. I dont think workforce is going to be an issue in a handful of years let alone decades.

你应该了解一下他们打造的人形机器人大军。我认为在几年内，更不用说几十年内，劳动力都不会成为问题。

__redruM
China’s one advantage is a huge focused workforce. General AI driven robotic that you can just buy, off the shelf, in any country, breaks that.

中国的一个优势是拥有庞大且专注的劳动力。而通用AI加持的机器人，在任何国家都能直接买到，这将打破他们的优势。

HypeIncarnate
sorry bro. China is going to be the lead super power that that we had trump twice. America is doomed.

抱歉了这位。中国将成为领先的超级大国，因为我们经历了两次特朗普。美国已经完蛋了。

melmboundanddown
With the amount of automation the Chinese are building in their factories and cities I don't think this will be as negative as the you tubers claim. Entire factories run completely in the dark to save electricity as all the workers are robots.

考虑到中国在工厂和城市里建设的自动化程度，我认为不会像油管上那些博主说的那么负面。有整个工厂为了省电而在完全漆黑的环境下运转，因为所有工人都是机器人。

__redruM
Why bother doing that in China though? China’s one advantage is plentiful, technically competent, cheap labor. If robotics is good enough to do that you could setup shop anywhere in the world.

那为什么还要在中国做这件事呢？中国的一大优势是拥有大量技术娴熟、价格低廉的劳动力。如果机器人技术已经好到能完成这些工作，那你在世界上任何地方都可以建厂啊。

melmboundanddown
We could try, but they are way ahead of us at this stage and their energy costs are way way cheaper. They have the raw materials too, we won't even be able to make virgin steel in the UK and planning permission was refused for a small coal mine.

我们可以试试，但在这个阶段他们已经远远领先我们，而且他们的能源成本要便宜得多。他们还有原材料，而在英国，我们连原生钢都造不了，一个小煤矿的开发许可都被否了。

NeoLephty
The American century was supported by immigrant labor, I see no reason the Chinese century can't also.

美国世纪是靠外来劳工支撑的，我看不出中国世纪为什么不能。

DependentLanguage540
Even if China’s population cuts completely in half at some point, we’re still talking about 700 million people. Half that and we’re still talking about more people than the United States.

即使中国的人口在某个时候减少一半，那也还有7亿人呢。即使再减半，也比美国人口多。

Which_Emergency5847
If the prosperity of a nation is determined by sheer size of population and labor force, India and China should be the most predominant powers in 19th and 20th century.

如果一个国家的繁荣仅仅由人口和劳力规模来决定，那印度和中国应该会是19世纪和20世纪最强大的国家。

Zacomra
1000%. Expect the US hedgemony to decline from here out. Either slowly or very rapidly, with China assuming the role as the military and capital super power.
What will be interesting is what that means for China's domestic work force. Will they follow the same trend as the US, labor movements unxizing for higher pay and better conditions in factory jobs that create a new middle class that over the next 50 years will slowly decay into more and more hyper capitalist inequality, or will they actually follow through on the promise and transition slowly away from private ownership and into a stalinist style system where the state has complete control over every company/industry.
Only time will tell

确实，预计美国的霸权将从现在开始衰落。要么缓慢，要么激进，而中国将接替成为军事和资本超级大国。
有趣的是，这对中国的国内劳动力意味着什么。他们会走美国的老路，劳工们会组成工会，为工厂工作争取更高的工资和更好的条件，从而创造一个中产阶级，然后在接下来的50年里慢慢退化为越来越极端不平等的资本主义；还是会真正履行承诺，慢慢从私有制过渡到斯大林式的体制，由国家完全控制每个公司和行业！当然只有时间能告诉我们一切

__nohope
Europe is the only real remaining competitor, but they are also falling under the influence of the Russiosphere.

欧洲是唯一真正剩下的竞争对手，可他们也正落入俄罗斯势力范围的影响之内。

jesoed
Europe is unfortunately the exact opposite. We have EXTREME difficulties to get technologies going here. Conservative parties do everything in their power to stop/slow down progress. Be it green power, eobility, digitalization, independence from other countries natural resources. Not to mention the rising costs of living. Or also the sucking off of USA.

不幸的是，欧洲恰恰相反。我们发展任何都会遇到极大阻力。因为保守党派会竭尽全力阻止或拖累进步。无论是绿色能源、电动汽车、数字化、摆脱对他国自然资源的依赖，还是不断上涨的生活成本，或者是对美国的谄媚，都是如此。

cr1515
It's crazy how much Russia has influence over the right wings of the world. USSR may have "lost" the cold war but Russia is winning the information war.

俄罗斯对世界右翼影响真是太深了。苏联可能“输掉”了冷战，但俄罗斯正在赢得信息战。

SigmaMaleNurgling
Seems like America is the only one in a position to continue to dominate. The biggest problem is that half of the country are selfestructive idiots who elected a selfestructive idiot.

看起来美国是唯一一个有能力继续主导的国家。可最大的问题是，这个国家有一半人都是有着自毁倾向的白痴，而这些白痴更是选出了一个有自毁倾向的白痴。