图：
“伊朗不敢封锁霍尔木兹海峡”
“海军在海峡会护送油轮的”
“我们会利用军事力量解封海峡的”
“我们根本不需要海峡”
 
In my recent article — Boots on the Ground in Iran… A Deception or a Suicide Mission? — I was shocked by the lack of OPSEC (aka Operational Security) surrounding the deployment of the 31st and 11th MEUs (Marine Expeditionary Unit). Then there was the news that the 82nd Airborne had cancelled an upcoming exercise and also were being deployed to the Persian Gulf as well. Why advertise that you are sending an amphibious force and an airborne unit to the Persian Gulf with the ostensible mission of breaking Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz? I speculated that publicizing the movement of these units could be a deception operation, i.e., getting the Iranians to focus on the Marines and the 82nd while ignoring other troop movements that will be the ones actually inserted on the ground. Based on Donald Trump’s statements today, coupled with new information provided by OSINT Defender and The Intel Frog, it appears that Trump has ordered a ground operation inside Iran that could begin as early as Friday.
Early on Monday morning, March 23, 2026, President Donald Trump announced via a Truth Social post (in all caps) that the United States and Iran had engaged in “very good and productive conversations” over the previous two days regarding “a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.”
 
在我最近的一篇文章——《地面部队进驻伊朗……是欺敌战术还是自杀式任务？》——中，我对围绕第31和第11海军陆战队远征分队（MEU）部署时所表现出的行动安全（OPSEC）匮乏感到震惊。随后又有消息称，第82空降师取消了即将举行的演习，也被部署到了波斯湾。
为什么要大张旗鼓地宣称派遣两栖部队和空降部队前往波斯湾，而其名义上的任务是打破伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的封锁？我推测，公开这些部队的动向可能是一场欺敌行动，即通过诱导伊朗人关注海军陆战队和第82师，从而忽略其他真正将被投入地面作战的部队调动。根据唐纳德·特朗普今天的表态，结合 OSINT Defender 和 The Intel Frog 提供的新信息，特朗普似乎已经下令在伊朗境内开展地面行动，且最早可能在周五开始。
 
2026年3月23日周一清晨，总统唐纳德·特朗普通过一条“真实社交”（Truth Social）帖子（全篇大写）宣布，在过去的两天里，美国和伊朗就“彻底、全面解决我们在中东的敌对状态”进行了“非常良好且富有成效的对话”。
 
He stated that, based on the “in-depth, detailed, and constructive” nature of these talks (which he said would continue throughout the week), he had instructed the Department of Defense (“Department of War”) to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of the ongoing discussions.
As a result of this announcement the Dow Jones surged $1,000 in the opening minutes of the stock market and the price of oil futures fell. Happy days… Only one little problem: It is a lie. Trump’s claim boosted the Dow Jones and cooled oil prices, but it was firmly denied by Iran.
The Iranian government wasted no time in denying Trump’s claim. Iran has zero interest in working out a negotiated settlement to the war on terms demanded by Trump. There is strong circumstantial evidence that Trump — once again — is trying to lull the Iranians into a state of complacency before launching a new attack… This one will be on the ground.
 
他声称，基于这些“深入、详尽且具有建设性”的对话（他表示对话将持续整个星期），他已指示国防部（即“战争部”）将针对伊朗发电厂和能源基础设施的所有军事打击推迟五天，视正在进行的讨论进展而定。
 
受此消息影响，道琼斯指数在开盘后的几分钟内飙升了1000点，原油期货价格随之下跌。好日子来了……但只有一个小问题：这是个谎言。特朗普的说法提振了道指并平抑了油价，但遭到了伊朗方面的坚决否认。
 
伊朗政府第一时间驳斥了特朗普的说法。伊朗完全没兴趣按照特朗普要求的条件通过谈判达成战争和解。有强有力的间接证据表明，特朗普——又一次——正试图在发动新一轮攻击前麻痹伊朗人，使其产生掉以轻心的心理……而这一次，将是地面行动。
 
The first clue came from Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period. Why five-days? The 31st MEU will be in place in the Arabian Sea, ready for action. I want to remind you that the MEU received its deployment order on March 13… Remember that date. I then learned late on Monday that Trump cancelled his appearance at CPAC this weekend and that he will not attend a fundraiser at Mar a Lago on Friday night for The Palm Beach Ray of Hope Foundation, which is hosting Dancing with the Palm Beach Stars. Looks like he will be otherwise occupied starting Friday.
Then I saw this X-post by the IntelFrog:
A significant movement is underway from US Army, Navy and Air Force bases in CONUS to the Middle East comprised of at least 35 C-17 flights since March 12th, with 11 more flights on the way.
Origins:
12-Hunter Army Air Field/Fort Stewart, GA
8-Unknown
7-JB Lewis-McChord, WA
6-Pope Army Air Field/Fort Bragg, NC
4-Campbell Army Airfield/Fort Campbell, KY
4-Gray Army Airfield/JB Lewis-McChord, WA
4-Naval Air Station Oceana, VA
1-MacDill AFB, FL
1-JB McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, NJ
 
第一个线索来自于特朗普宣布对伊朗电厂和能源基础设施实行为期五天的停火。为什么是五天？届时第31海军陆战队远征分队（MEU）将抵达阿拉伯海就位，准备行动。我想提醒各位，该分队是在3月13日接到部署命令的……请记住这个日期。随后我在周一晚些时候获悉，特朗普取消了本周末在保守党政治行动大会（CPAC）的露面，也不会参加周五晚上在海湖庄园为棕榈滩“希望之光”基金会（该基金会正举办“与棕榈滩之星共舞”活动）举行的筹款会。看来从周五开始，他将另有要务。
 
随后我看到了 IntelFrog 发布的这条 X 帖子：
 
一场重大的兵力调动正从美国本土（CONUS）的陆、海、空军基地发往中东。自3月12日以来，至少已飞行35架次 C-17 运输机，另有11架次正在途中。
 
（译注：后续都是关于美军军事具体调动和相关信息，不感兴趣的可直接跳到评论）
 
出发地：
12架次 - 乔治亚州亨特陆军机场/斯图尔特堡
8架次 - 未知
7架次 - 华盛顿州路易斯-麦克乔德联合基地
6架次 - 北卡罗来纳州波普陆军机场/布拉格堡
4架次 - 肯塔基州坎贝尔陆军机场/坎贝尔堡
4架次 - 华盛顿州路易斯-麦克乔德联合基地/格雷陆军机场
4架次 - 弗吉尼亚州奥希阿纳海军航空站
1架次 - 佛罗里达州麦克迪尔空军基地
1架次 - 新泽西州麦圭尔-狄克斯-莱克赫斯特联合基地。
 
Destinations:
17-Ovda Air Base, Israel
13-King Faisal Air Base, Jordan
4-King Hussein Int’l Airport, Jordan
 
目的地：
 
17架次 - 以色列奥夫达空军基地
13架次 - 约旦费萨尔国王空军基地
4架次 - 约旦侯赛因国王国际机场
 
When you Google the military units located at these airfields in the US, a pattern begins to emerge (the following information is derived from a Google AI search):
Hunter Army Airfield (IATA: SVN, ICAO: KSVN) is located in Savannah, Georgia, and is a military airfield and subordinate installation to Fort Stewart, located in Hinesville, Georgia — about 45 miles to the southwest. What could the C-17 be picking up? Cargo, helicopters or personnel? Important to note that Hunter is home to some of the US military’s most elite aviation forces:
1st Battalion, 75th Ranger Regiment — not an aviation unit itself, but the Rangers are based at Hunter and work closely with the 160th SOAR
3rd Battalion, 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (Airborne) — the legendary “Night Stalkers,” flying highly modified MH-60 Black Hawks and MH-47 Chinooks on classified special operations missions worldwide.
15th Air Support Operations Squadron (USAF) — Air Force unit embedded with Army ground forces to coordinate close air support
 
如果你在谷歌上搜索位于这些美国机场的军事单位，一个模式就开始浮现了（以下信息来源于谷歌 AI 搜索）：
 
亨特陆军机场（IATA: SVN, ICAO: KSVN）位于佐治亚州萨凡纳，是一个军事机场，也是位于佐治亚州海因斯维尔——西南方向约45英里处——的斯图尔特堡的下属设施。C-17 运输机可能在装载什么？物资、直升机还是人员？值得注意的是，亨特机场是美国军方一些最精锐航空力量的驻地：
 
第75游骑兵团第1营——其本身并非航空单位，但游骑兵驻扎在亨特机场，并与第160特种作战航空团（SOAR）密切协作。
 
第160特种作战航空团（空降）第3营——即传奇的“暗夜潜行者”，他们驾驶高度改装的 MH-60“黑鹰”和 MH-47“支奴干”直升机，在全球范围内执行机密特种作战任务。
 
第15空中支援作战中队（美国空军）——这支空军单位嵌入陆军地面部队，负责协调近距离空中支援。
 
2nd Battalion, 75th Ranger Regiment — not a flying unit, but the Rangers at JBLM are closely integrated with the 160th SOAR in rapid-raid and direct-action mission sets 1st Special Forces Group — the primary Army Special Forces group for the Pacific theater, also at JBLM, relying on the 160th SOAR for aviation support 22nd Special Tactics Squadron (USAF) — Air Force special operations combat controllers and pararescuemen embedded at McChord Field, supporting the full joint special operations enterprise
is an amalgamation of Fort Lewis and McChord Air Force Base, which merged on February 1, 2010, as a result of 2005 Base Realignment and Closure Commission recommendations. JBLM is the only Army power projection base west of the Rocky Mountains in the Continental United States.
 
第75游骑兵团第2营——并非飞行单位，但驻扎在路易斯-麦克乔德联合基地（JBLM）的游骑兵与第160特种作战航空团（SOAR）在快速突袭和直接行动任务中高度整合。
第1特种部队群——陆军负责太平洋战区的主要特种部队群，同样驻扎在JBLM，依赖第160特种作战航空团提供航空支持。
第22特种战术中队（美国空军）——驻扎在麦克乔德机场的空军特种作战战斗控制员和伞降救援人员，为整个联合特种作战体系提供支持。
 
路易斯-麦克乔德联合基地是路易斯堡和麦克乔德空军基地的合并体，根据2005年基地调整与关闭委员会的建议，双方于2010年2月1日正式合并。JBLM 是美国本土落基山脉以西唯一的陆军力量投送基地。
 
Key units at this base include:
The 4th Battalion, 160th SOAR is listed as a major unit at JBLM. Army Like the 3rd Battalion at Hunter Army Airfield, the 4th Battalion is part of the legendary Night Stalkers — the Army’s elite special operations aviation regiment that provides aviation support to special operations forces worldwide. Flying highly modified MH-60 and MH-47 variants with advanced navigation and survivability systems, the Night Stalkers operate under the motto “Night Stalkers Don’t Quit” and support the full range of classified special operations missions. JBLM’s 4th Battalion supports Pacific-theater special operations requirements.
2nd Battalion, 75th Ranger Regiment — not a flying unit, but the Rangers at JBLM are closely integrated with the 160th SOAR in rapid-raid and direct-action mission sets.
1st Special Forces Group — the primary Army Special Forces group for the Pacific theater, also at JBLM, relying on the 160th SOAR for aviation support.
22nd Special Tactics Squadron (USAF) — Air Force special operations combat controllers and pararescuemen embedded at McChord Field, supporting the full joint special operations enterprise
 
该基地的关键单位包括：
 
第160特种作战航空团（SOAR）第4营被列为该基地的主要单位。与驻扎在亨特陆军机场的第3营一样，第4营也是传奇的“暗夜潜行者”的一部分——这是陆军精锐的特种作战航空团，为全球特种作战部队提供航空支持。他们驾驶配有先进导航和生存系统的、经过高度改装的 MH-60 和 MH-47 变体机型，“暗夜潜行者”秉持“暗夜潜行者永不言弃”的座训，支持全方位的机密特种作战任务。该基地的第4营主要支持太平洋战区的特种作战需求。
 
第75游骑兵团第2营——并非飞行单位，但驻扎在JBLM的游骑兵在快速突击和直接行动任务中与第160特种作战航空团高度整合。
 
第1特种部队群——陆军负责太平洋战区的主要特种部队群，同样驻扎在JBLM，并依赖第160特种作战航空团提供航空支持。
 
第22特种战术中队（美国空军）——驻扎在麦克乔德机场的空军特种作战战斗控制员和伞降救援人员，为整个联合特种作战体系提供支持。
 
Campbell Army Airfield/Fort Campbell, KY: Fort Campbell and Campbell Army Airfield represent arguably the most aviation-dense installation in the entire US Army — the spiritual home of Army rotary-wing aviation and the epicenter of special operations aviation worldwide. Fort Campbell is the regimental home of the 160th SOAR, the most elite rotary-wing aviation unit in the world. Key units include:
1st Battalion, 160th SOAR (Airborne): 1st Battalion is located at Fort Campbell, KY and is equipped with MH-6 and AH-6 Little Bird light assault and attack helicopters and MH-60 Black Hawk assault and attack helicopters. 1st Battalion is the primary support battalion for Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), meaning it directly supports the Army’s most classified and sensitive direct-action units including Delta Force and SEAL Team Six (DEVGRU).
2nd Battalion, 160th SOAR (Airborne): 2nd Battalion is located at Fort Campbell, KY and is equipped with MH-47 Chinook heavy assault helicopters, MH-60 Black Hawk assault helicopters, and MQ-1C Gray Eagle unmanned aircraft systems. 160th SOAR The MH-47G Chinook is the regiment’s workhorse for long-range infiltration and exfiltration of large special operations teams, featuring aerial refueling capability, terrain-following radar, advanced navigation systems, and extreme environmental modifications for Arctic, desert, and maritime operations. The 2nd Battalion’s ability to refuel in flight makes it capable of missions of virtually unlimited range.
 
肯塔基州坎贝尔陆军机场/坎贝尔堡：坎贝尔堡和坎贝尔陆军机场可以说是整个美国陆军中航空兵力最密集的设施——它是陆军旋翼机航空兵的精神家园，也是全球特种作战航空兵的核心。坎贝尔堡是第160特种作战航空团（SOAR）的团部所在地，这是世界上最精锐的旋翼机航空部队。关键单位包括：
 
第160特种作战航空团（空降）第1营：第1营位于肯塔基州坎贝尔堡，装备有 MH-6 和 AH-6“小鸟”轻型突击与攻击直升机，以及 MH-60“黑鹰”突击与攻击直升机。第1营是联合特种作战司令部（JSOC）的主要支援营，这意味着它直接支援美军最机密、最敏感的直接行动单位，包括三角洲部队（Delta Force）和海豹突击队第六分队（DEVGRU/SEAL Team Six）。
 
第160特种作战航空团（空降）第2营：第2营位于肯塔基州坎贝尔堡，装备有 MH-47“支奴干”重型突击直升机、MH-60“黑鹰”突击直升机以及 MQ-1C“灰鹰”无人机系统。MH-47G“支奴干”是该团执行远程渗透和撤离大型特种作战小组的主力机型，具备空中加油能力、地形跟踪雷达、先进导航系统，并针对极地、沙漠和海上作业进行了极端环境改装。第2营的空中加油能力使其具备执行几乎不受航程限制的任务的能力。
 
Fort Bragg/Pope Field is unlike any of the previous installations — it is not primarily a rotary-wing aviation base, but rather the beating heart of the entire US joint airborne and special operations enterprise, with aviation assets drawn from multiple services and commands. Notable ground units with deep aviation dependencies at this base include:
82nd Airborne Division — the entire division’s rapid deployment concept depends on Air Force strategic airlift (C-17s and C-130s) flowing through Pope Field and Army rotary-wing aviation at Simmons
1st Special Forces Command (Airborne) — oversees all active Army Special Forces Groups, relying on both 160th SOAR and AFSOC for their aviation support
75th Ranger Regiment (HQ) — the regiment’s headquarters is at Fort Bragg, with battalions at Fort Benning/Moore, Georgia; Fort Lewis, Washington; and Hunter Army Airfield, Georgia
3rd Special Forces Group (Airborne) — Africa-focused Special Forces Group based at Fort Bragg, relying on AFSOC and 160th SOAR support
Delta Force (1st SFOD-D) — the Army’s Tier 1 direct-action unit, based at Fort Bragg’s classified compound (“The Farm”), wholly dependent on the Night Stalkers and JSOC aviation for operational support
USASOAC (US Army Special Operations Aviation Command) — the command headquarters overseeing all Army special operations aviation, including the 160th SOAR, is at Fort Bragg
 
布拉格堡/波普机场与之前的设施不同——它主要并非旋翼机航空基地，而是整个美国联合空降与特种作战体系的核心心脏，其航空资产来自多个军种和司令部。该基地中高度依赖航空支持的著名地面单位包括：
 
第82空降师——该师整个快速部署理念都依赖于通过波普机场投送的空军战略空运能力（C-17和C-130）以及驻扎在西蒙斯（Simmons）的陆军旋翼机航空兵。
 
第1特种部队司令部（空降）——管辖所有现役陆军特种部队群，其航空支持依赖于第160特种作战航空团（SOAR）和空军特种作战司令部（AFSOC）。
 
第75游骑兵团（团部）——该团总部位于布拉格堡，其下属各营分别驻扎在佐治亚州本宁堡/摩尔堡、华盛顿州路易斯堡以及佐治亚州亨特陆军机场。
 
第3特种部队群（空降）——总部设在布拉格堡、专注于非洲地区的特种部队群，依赖空军特种作战司令部（AFSOC）和第160特种作战航空团（SOAR）的支持。
 
三角洲部队（第1特种部队分遣队-D）——陆军“第一梯队”（Tier 1）直接行动单位，驻扎在布拉格堡的机密营地（“农场”），行动支持完全依赖于“暗夜潜行者”和联合特种作战司令部（JSOC）的航空力量。
 
美国陆军特种作战航空司令部（USASOAC）——负责监管包括第160特种作战航空团（SOAR）在内的所有陆军特种作战航空力量的指挥总部，设在布拉格堡。
 
Naval Air Station Oceana, VA: The airfield is formally known as Apollo Soucek Field, named after Lieutenant (later Admiral) Apollo Soucek, a Navy test pilot who set the world altitude record in 1930 flying a Curtiss biplane to 43,166 feet. It has four active runways, giving it the capacity to handle the enormous volume of flight operations generated by its 17-plus squadrons simultaneously. NAS Oceana is supplemented by the Dam Neck Annex — a separate, highly secured installation a few miles away, home to the Naval Special Warfare Development Group (DEVGRU/SEAL Team Six), various schoolhouses, and non-flying commands.
Understanding the distinction between DEVGRU at Dam Neck and the SEAL teams at Little Creek is important. The conventional SEAL teams (Teams 2, 4, 8, 10) are Tier 2 special operations forces — enormously capable by any standard, but operating under theater special operations commands on assigned missions. They deploy on predictable cycles, supporting combatant commanders with direct action, special reconnaissance, foreign internal defense, and counter-terrorism.
DEVGRU is Tier 1 — it answers directly to JSOC, takes missions directly from the President and National Command Authority through JSOC, and deploys in response to the most sensitive national priority targets. Its operators are drawn exclusively from the existing SEAL community after a grueling sextion process called Green Team, with roughly a 50% attrition rate.
 
弗吉尼亚州奥希阿纳海军航空站（NAS Oceana）： 该机场的正式名称为阿波罗·索塞克机场（Apollo Soucek Field），得名于海军测试飞行员阿波罗·索塞克中尉（后晋升为少将），他曾于1930年驾驶柯蒂斯双翼飞机飞至43,166英尺的高度，创下了当时的世界海拔纪录。该站拥有四条现役跑道，足以同时应对其17个以上中队产生的庞大飞行作业量。奥希阿纳海军航空站还设有丹尼克附件（Dam Neck Annex）作为补充——这是一个位于几英里外、高度安全的独立设施，是海军特种作战开发组（DEVGRU，即海豹突击队第六分队）、各类学校及非飞行司令部的所在地。
 
区分驻扎在丹尼克的 DEVGRU 与驻扎在利特尔克里克（Little Creek）的海豹突击队至关重要。常规海豹突击队（第2、4、8、10队）属于“第二梯队”（Tier 2）特种作战部队——无论按何种标准衡量，他们都拥有极强的作战能力，但在战区特种作战司令部的下辖框架内执行指派任务。他们按照可预见的周期进行部署，为作战指挥官提供直接行动、特种侦察、国外内部防御及反恐支持。
 
而 DEVGRU 属于“第一梯队”（Tier 1）——它直接向联合特种作战司令部（JSOC）负责，通过 JSOC 直接接收来自总统和国家指挥当局的任务指令，并针对国家最敏感的优先目标进行部署。其成员全部选拔自现有的海豹突击队成员，且必须通过被称为“绿队”（Green Team）的严酷选拔，该过程的淘汰率约为 50%。
 
I do not know what is being planned, but the intense activity of at least 35 C-17 missions at these bases indicates a major Special Operations activity is in the works. The activity started on March 12 — one day before the 31st MEU was deployed. Coincidence? I don’t think so. If I can figure this out using only open source data, I have no doubt that the Iranians, the Russians and the Chinese are monitoring this activity as well… They also have good intelligence analysts and, unlike me, access to classified intelligence from their own sources.
If these forces are inserted onto Iranian territory, it will be only a matter of time before Iran starts hitting them with drones and missiles. After 25 days of war, the US has suffered few casualties considering the number of missiles and drones that have been launched. This kind of operation carries enormous risk for the operators who are deployed on the ground. I fear that US planners have grossly underestimated the resolve and determination of the Iranians to defend their home.
 
我不清楚具体的计划，但这些基地至少35架次 C-17 运输机任务的密集活动预示着一场重大的特种作战行动正在筹备中。这些活动始于3月12日——即第31海军陆战队远征分队（MEU）部署的前一天。巧合吗？我不这么认为。
 
如果我仅凭公开数据就能推断出这些，我毫不怀疑伊朗、俄罗斯和中国同样在监视着这些动向……他们也有优秀的侦查分析人员，并且与我不同，他们可以从自己的渠道获取机密情报。
 
如果这些部队踏足伊朗领土，伊朗开始用无人机和导弹打击他们只是时间问题。考虑到已发射的导弹和无人机数量，在开战25天后，美军承受的人员伤亡极小。但这种类型的地面渗透行动对参战人员而言，意味着巨大的风险。我担心美国策划者严重低估了伊朗人保卫家园的毅力和决心。

（完）