Iran Has Already Won

伊朗已经赢了 / 作者：华斌

It is a spectacle to witness the complete mental meltdown of the “leader” of the “free world” and the world’s “sole” superpower.
Barely three weeks after his breathless claim of victory, Trump has gone total bananas beyond his usual incoherent self.
One wonders whether it is the fog of war that’s corroding his brain or Trump simply never has any idea what he is talking about –
A week ago, Trump claimed the war is “very complete, pretty much”. At the same time, he is sending Marine expeditionary forces from Japan and California to the Gulf, ostensibly for ground invasion.
On Friday he said that he wasn’t sending ground troops to Iran, but added: “If I were, I certainly wouldn’t tell you”.
Trump announced Iranian air defense is “100% obliterated” in the first week of the war, but a F-35 – the crown jewel of US air power – was shot down 2 days ago.
He claimed repeatedly the Iranian military is “gone” and “completely wiped out”, but drones and missiles are still striking targets in Israel and the Gulf region.
As of yesterday, targets have extended as far as the joint US-UK base in Diego Garcia in the Indian ocean.
Trump also said opening the Strait of Hormuz is a “simple manoeuvre”, but refuses to send US warships to ensure safe passage.

目睹这位“自由世界”领袖、全球“唯一”超级大国元首的精神彻底崩溃，简直是一场奇观。
在他那令人屏息的胜利宣言发出仅仅三周后，特朗普便陷入了彻底的癫狂，远超他往常那副语无伦次的样子。人们不禁怀疑，究其原因，究竟是战争的迷雾腐蚀了他的大脑，还是他压根就不知道自己在胡说八道。

一周前，特朗普宣称战争已经“基本彻底结束了”。与此同时，他却正将海军陆战队远征军从日本和加利福尼亚调往海湾地区，名义上是为了发动地面入侵。
周五他表示不会向伊朗派遣地面部队，却又补上一句：“如果我要派，也肯定不会告诉你们。”
特朗普在开战首周便宣布伊朗的防空系统已“100%被歼灭”，然而就在两天前，美国空中力量的掌上明珠——一架 F-35 战机却被击落了。

他一再声称伊朗军队已经“不复存在”、“被彻底铲除”，但无人机和导弹仍在持续袭击以色列和海湾地区的目标。截至昨日，袭击范围甚至已延伸到了印度洋上的英美联合基地——迪戈加西亚岛。
特朗普还称，打通霍尔木兹海峡不过是“常规操作”，却拒绝派遣美国军舰去确保航道安全。

He asked for others to help but vassals such as UK, France, Germany, Australia, and Japan all said no. Interestingly, Trump never asked Israel to send ships to open Hormuz. I guess he knows who is boss in that relationship.
The most shocking and idiotic Trump request has to be asking Beijing to send its navy to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
For the Fox “News” commentators celebrating Trump’s brilliant chess move to chokehold China’s energy supply with the Iran invasion at the start of the war, his desperate call to Beijing for help is a slap on the face.
The absurdity is hilarious.
In my last essay, I predicted Trump will beg President * to intervene to end the war. He went further with the call for rescue with Hormuz.
Trump has lost any attachment with reality and rationality – Chinese ships can transit safely through Hormuz; Iranian oil continues to flow to China; and Iran announced it will permit Yuan-denominated trade safe passage.

他曾向盟友求援，但像英国、法国、德国、澳大利亚、日本等一众随从都纷纷婉拒。耐人寻味的是，特朗普从未要求过以色列派遣军舰去打通霍尔木兹海峡。我猜他很清楚，在这份关系中，谁才是真正的老子。
然而，特朗普最荒唐、最愚蠢的请求，莫过于要求北京派遣海军去维持霍尔木兹海峡的通航。
对于那些在福克斯新闻上欢庆特朗普入侵伊朗、扼杀中国能源供给是“天才棋局”的评论员们来说，他向北京发出的这种绝望求援，无疑是狠狠打在自己脸上。

这种荒诞简直滑稽至极。
在我上一篇评论文章中，我就曾预言特朗普会乞求中国出手终结战争。如今看来，他在寻求打通霍尔木兹海峡的救援时，甚至走得更远。
特朗普已经彻底丧失了现实感和理智——中国船只本就可以在霍尔木兹海峡安全通行；伊朗的石油依然源源不断地运往中国；且伊朗已公开宣布，将允许使用人民币结算的贸易船只安全通过。

Why on earth would China step in to pull US’s chestnuts out of the fire when it is not affected by Iran’s blockade and it is also the indirect target of the illegal war to start with?
Has Trump lost all his marbles or he never knows how to tell his head from his ass?
The reality is Iran has already won the war.
Bombs will continue to drop. Both sides will continue to shoot missiles and drones at each other. The US Marine may even launch a suicidal beach landing on Kharg Island.
But for all intents and purposes, the US has already lost the war.
Because the purpose of wars is the achievement of political obxtives.
The US war obxtive is regime change – in Trump’s hyperbolic language, “unconditional surrender” and “I will name the next leader”.

既然中国并未受到伊朗封锁的影响，且本就是这场非法战争的间接针对目标，那它凭什么要跳进火海为美国火中取栗？
特朗普到底是老糊涂了，还是压根就搞不清状况？
现实是，伊朗已经赢得了战争。
轰炸仍将持续。双方将继续互射导弹与无人机。美国海军陆战队甚至可能在哈尔克岛发起一场自杀式的抢滩登陆。

但无论从哪个层面看，美国其实都已经输掉了这场战争。
因为战争的终极意义在于实现政治目标。
美国的战略意图是更迭政权——用特朗普那副夸张的腔调来说，就是“无条件投降”，并“由我来指定下一任领导人”。

There is zero chance that will happen. In fact, when the war ends, Tehran will be run by an even more anti-US government and led by a supreme leader with visceral hatred for the US and Israel who wiped out his family.
Even if USrael can kill more Iranian leaders, they won’t kill their way to a puppet regime.
Now that a regime change is off the table, the US war obxtive has changed to keep Strait of Hormuz open.
This change alone tells you the US has already lost the war since the Strait of Hormuz was open before the war. Essentially, the US is prosecuting the war to merely return to the pre-war status quo.
And even this modest goal is unlikely to be achieved without costing thousands of US lives since it has no choice but to send in ground troops.
And if the US engages in ground invasion, we will be looking at Vietnam 2.0 since Iran’s plan is to turn the conflict into a war of attrition that will grind down US personnel and materiel.

这种可能性几乎为零。事实上，当战争尘埃落定，德黑兰必将由一个更加仇视美国的政府所掌控，并由一位对其家人惨死在美、以之手怀有切齿痛恨的最高领袖来领导。
即便“美以同盟”能除掉更多的伊朗领导人，他们也绝不可能靠杀戮凭空造就一个傀儡政权。
由于政权更迭已无望实现，美国的战略目标现已转为维持霍尔木兹海峡的畅通。

单就这一转变便足以说明美国已经输掉了战争，毕竟开战之前海峡本就是畅通的。换言之，美国发动战争，居然只是为了能回到战前的状态。
即便如此微小的目标，如果不以数千名美军的性命为代价，恐怕也难以达成，因为除了派遣地面部队外，他们已别无他选。
而一旦美国卷入地面战，那我们将见证“越南战争 2.0”。因为伊朗的策略极其明确：将冲突转化为一场旷日持久的消耗战，不断磨损美军的人力与物力。

When a long war of attrition becomes reality, expect China and Russia to step up their support to Iran against the US, just like during the Vietnam War.
Success in war is not measured by who dropped the most bombs or killed the most people. If that were the case, the US would have won the Vietnam war and Germany would have won the war against Soviet unx.
The US dropped more bombs on Vietnam than all the bombs dropped in WW2. It killed 3 million military and civilian population. In the end, it lost the war.
The litmus test of the Iran war comes down to who can control the Strait of Hormuz. All indicators point to Iran’s continued jurisdiction over the patch of water.

一旦漫长的消耗战成为现实，可以预见中国和俄罗斯将像越战时期那样，加大对伊朗对抗美国的援助力度。
战争的胜负并非由谁投下的炸弹最多或杀害的人数最众来衡量。若果真如此，美国理应赢得越战，而德国也理应战胜苏联。
美国在越南投下的炸弹总量甚至超过了二战。它夺走了三百万越南官兵与平民的性命，可结果呢？它依然输掉了战争。

伊朗战争的试金石终将归结于谁能掌控霍尔木兹海峡。而所有的迹象都表明：伊朗将继续维持对该海域的实际管辖权。

The Pentagon is now asking for $200 billion emergency war funding, from a congress which Trump didn’t bother to inform about the war plans.
We don’t know how long the Pentagon expects the $200 billion to last.
But put the number in context – this is 25 times Iran’s annual defense budget, 125% Russia’s 2025 budget (during a full-scale war), and 80% China’s annual spending.
Iran GDP in 2025 is $341 billion.
According to CSIS, the war cost the US about $2 billion a day in the first week of the war.

五角大楼正向国会申请 2000 亿美元的紧急战争拨款，而特朗普此前甚至根本没想过要向国会告知他的作战计划。
我们尚不清楚这 2000 亿美元能撑多久。
但通过数据对比即可见一斑：这笔钱是伊朗年度国防预算的 25 倍，是处于全面战争状态下的俄罗斯 2025 年预算的 125%，也是中国年军费支出的 80%。
而伊朗 2025 年的国内生产总值（GDP）仅为 3410 亿美元。

据战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）统计，开战首周美国每天就要烧掉约 20 亿美元。

But throwing money at the problem won’t solve it. You can print money but cannot print surge capacity and ammunitions. As expected, the Iran war is yet another taxpayer handout to the underprivileged northern Virginia defense contractors to buy second homes and luxury yachts.
It will also be a nice tidy addition to the $38.8 trillion national debt at the center of the financial Ponzi scheme called the US dollar.
Gas price, the default barometer of US voters’ ability to absorb pain, has gone from $2.9 per gallon to $3.9.
Amazingly, that society’s focal point about foreign wars is always the impact on gas prices, and never the legality or morality of the atrocities. Or the cost to the nation as a whole.
In a twist of supreme irony, the Trump regime is now un-sanctioning Iranian and Russian oil in an attempt to lower gas prices.
Rather than crippling Iran’s finances, Trump is helping Iran’s finances in the middle of an unprovoked war against it.

但光靠砸钱并不能解决问题。你可以印钞票，却印不出紧急增产能力和弹药。正如预料的那样，对伊战争不过是又一次将纳税人的钱拱手送给北弗吉尼亚州那些“贫困”的国防承包商，好让他们去购买二套房和豪华游艇。
这还将为那高达38.8万亿美元的国家债务增添一笔不小的数目，而这笔债务正处于这场被称为“美元”的金融庞氏骗局的中心。

汽油价格，作为衡量美国选民痛苦承受能力的默认晴雨表，已经从每加仑2.9美元涨到了3.9美元。
令人惊讶的是，那个社会对对外战争的关注点永远是对油价的影响，而从未关注过暴行的合法性或道德性，亦或是对国家整体造成的代价。
极其讽刺的是，特朗普政府现在正为了降低油价，而解除对伊朗和俄罗斯石油的制裁。

特朗普非但没有重创伊朗的财政，反而在对他国发动无端战争期间，变相资助了其财政。

When body bags start to return to the US en masse from a disastrous ground invasion, public appetite for war will evaporate.
In war, one’s ability to withstand pain is even more important than one’s ability to inflict pain.
The American public is known to have very limited capacities for pain. So, time is on Iran’s side.
What happens next?
While it is clear Iran has already won from a strategic standpoint, the war continues and probably will escalate. We have yet to fully appreciate the ripple effects.

当大批尸袋因一场灾难性的地面入侵而开始运回美国时，公众对战争的狂热将会烟消云散。
在战争中，承受痛苦的能力甚至比施加痛苦的能力更为重要。
众所周知，美国民众承受痛苦的能力非常有限。因此，时间站在伊朗这一边。
接下来会发生什么？
尽管从战略角度来看，伊朗显然已经获胜，但战争仍在继续，并可能进一步升级。我们尚未充分意识到其带来的连锁反应。

Questions remain about what the belligerents will do next –
Iran – how much munitions in the form of missiles and drones does it have to sustain a long war? Will the bombing of its energy and food infrastructure affect regime stability? How far is it willing to go after Israeli nuclear arsenal and critical infrastructures such as desalination plants to maximize pain on Israel?
The US – when will it run out of air defense interceptors? How many casualties will it take before yielding and pulling out? What is the domestic pain threshold with gas prices, inflation, and stock market collapse? How can it pull out with some fig leaf of appearing “victorious”?
Israel – when will it run out of air defense and be left at the mercy of Iran’s missile and drone attacks? What is the Israeli public’s pain threshold with casualty and property destruction? Will it resort to nuclear weapons as laid out in the Samson Option doctrine?

关于交战各方接下来的行动，仍存在诸多疑问：
伊朗——它拥有多少导弹和无人机弹药储备来支撑一场持久战？针对其能源和粮食基础设施的轰炸是否会影响政权稳定？为了让以色列承受最大限度的痛苦，它在打击以色列核武库及海水淡化厂等关键基础设施方面愿意走多远？
美国——其防空拦截弹何时会耗尽？在最终屈服并撤军之前，它能承受多少伤亡？面对油价、通胀和股市崩盘，其国内的痛苦阈值是多少？它如何才能带着维持“胜利”表象的遮羞布撤出？

以色列——它何时会耗尽防空力量，从而任由伊朗的导弹和无人机袭击摆布？以色列民众对人员伤亡和财产损失的痛苦阈值是多少？它是否会诉诸“萨姆森选项”（Samson Option）教义中所规定的核武器？

Israel’s war obxtive is different from the US. Its primary goal is to wreck Iran as much as possible to weaken and ideally to fragment and dismember the country.
Israel doesn’t want a strong Iran, regardless of who rules the country.
It is also killing off all potential Iranian negotiators like Larijani, ensuring the US has no one to talk to who has the authority to effect a truce.
Since this is likely its last chance to get the US to fight Iran on its behalf, Israel’s interest is to prolong the war as much as possible and keep the US in the fight.
As Trump proves himself a complete jew vassal (Shabbos goy), Israel will be the party to decide whether and when the US can pull out.
GCC sheikdoms – I don’t expect the Gulf countries to join the war as their military power is negligible and the sheiks cannot afford to have a permanent enemy with Iran.

以色列的战争目标与美国不同。其首要目标是尽可能重创伊朗，使其虚弱，并在理想情况下将其分裂与肢解。
无论谁统治伊朗，以色列都不希望看到一个强大的伊朗。
它还在除掉像拉里贾尼这样所有潜在的伊朗谈判代表，以确保美国找不到任何有权促成停战的人进行对话。
鉴于这很可能是以色列让美国替其攻打伊朗的最后机会，以色列的利益所在就是尽可能延长战争，并将美国困在战局之中。

随着特朗普证明自己是彻头彻尾的犹太附庸，以色列将成为决定美国是否以及何时能够撤出的那一方。
海合会（GCC）各酋长国——我不指望海湾国家会加入战争，因为他们的军事力量微不足道，且这些酋长们无法承受与伊朗成为宿敌的代价。

As de facto US colonies, the GCC will take as much pain as Iran dishes out. The cold reality is the strong take what they can and the weak suffer what they must.
There is an old Arab proverb: Kiss the hand you cannot bite. So, I assume they will learn to live with a dominant Iran in the region post war.
Questions for GCC are: will they expel US military bases after the war and seek other security partners? Will they ever recover the pre-war bubble of security and prosperity?
Other countries – what does the war teach them about US treachery and limits of US power? What alternative security arrangements do they have to pursue in the waning days of US hegemony? How to secure alternative energy supplies and weed out Gulf oil/gas dependency? What does the inevitable end of the petrodollar system mean to their financial and economic models?
It is safe to bet that Iran will emerge as the strongest power in West Asia at the end of the war. It will have a de facto control of Middle Eastern energy supply as it dictates who can or cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
The US will end up shooting itself in the foot and lose all credibility as the global hegemon. The world will know the emperor has no clothes.

作为美国事实上的殖民地，海合会（GCC）国家将承受伊朗施加的所有痛苦。冷酷的现实是：强者为所欲为，弱者逆来顺受。
阿拉伯有一句古老的谚语：亲吻你无法咬断的手。因此，我推测在战后，他们将学会与在该地区占据主导地位的伊朗共存。
海合会面临的问题是：他们是否会在战后驱逐美国军事基地并寻求其他安全合作伙伴？他们还能否恢复战前那安全与繁荣的泡沫？

对于其他国家而言——这场战争让他们对美国的背信弃义和实力局限性有何反思？在美国霸权式微的余晖中，他们必须追求怎样的替代性安全安排？如何确保替代能源供应并消除对海湾油气的依赖？石油美元体系不可避免的终结，对他们的金融和经济模式又意味着什么？
可以肯定的是，战争结束时，伊朗将作为西亚最强大的力量崛起。由于掌控着谁能或不能通过霍尔木兹海峡，它将事实上控制中东的能源供应。

美国最终将搬起石头砸自己的脚，并失去作为全球霸主的所有信誉。全世界都将看清，原来皇帝并没有穿衣服。
（完）