伊朗如何逆转了对美国的战争经济

@fallonmassey4714
It seems to me that the biggest issue is people & nations in the West that don't believe in the Rule of Law. We complain about the economics, but the fundamental breaking of International Law & the murder of innocent people barely registers in Western Minds!
 
在我看来，最大的一个问题是西方国家和人民不相信法治。我们抱怨经济问题，但国际法的根本破坏和无辜人民的谋杀在西方人的思想中几乎没有引起反响！
 
@gamking7987
It turns out a high school  profesor in canada knew more about geopolitic strategy than all Harvard combined
 
结果发现，加拿大的一位高中教授比哈佛所有人加起来对地缘政治战略的了解还要多。
 
@jermelpurse3018
Let’s not forget Ukraine offered this technology to the United States and we initially refused months ago they said would you like this technology in case someone ever uses drone strikes against you or your assets? Donald Trump told them no I don’t want it. We took them up on this offer right after he started this war. What after we realized oh crap we really could use that.
 
别忘了，乌克兰几个月前曾向美国提供过这项技术，当时我们拒绝了。他们问你是否希望拥有这项技术，以防有人对你或你的资产进行无人机袭击？唐纳德·特朗普告诉他们，不，我不想要。就在他发起这场战争后不久，我们才接受了这个提议。等到我们意识到“哦，糟糕，我们真的可以用上这个”时。
 
@Aussie_car_life
Headline should read how politicians didn't take any notice of how warfare was being fought in Ukraine and just decided not to act
 
标题应该是：政治家们没有注意到乌克兰的战争方式，选择不采取行动。
 
@telanos2492
None of this is actually surprising to actual military planners / defense analysis (as opposed to the politicians making decisions).
I remember reading commentary in the 2000s on missile defense systems - that the technical challenges were significant, but the biggest flaw with the idea of missile defense was how easy and cost effective it would be for the attacker to circumvent absurdly expensive missile defenses, by simply launching decoys, or attacking with numbers. This wasn't one isolated analyst that can now claim to be visionary - this was the position of every literally analyst I encountered commenting on the topic.
Of course, its easy to ignore analysis on future consequences when they're not hitting you in the face right now, and decisions makers would much rather spend money on the most expensive programs possible in the most electorally relevant states....
 
对于真正的军事规划者和防务分析人士来说，这一切并不令人惊讶（与做决策的政治家不同）。我记得在2000年代阅读关于导弹防御系统的评论——技术挑战非常显著，但导弹防御理念的最大缺陷在于攻击者很容易且成本低廉地通过简单地发射诱饵或以数量攻击来规避那些昂贵的导弹防御。这并不是孤立的分析师如今可以声称是先知，这是我遇到的每位评论该主题的分析师的共同观点。当然，当未来的后果没有立即影响到你时，忽视分析很容易，而决策者们更愿意在选举相关性最高的州投资最昂贵的项目……
 
@lcreager6231
trump’s sons are investors in the drone market, and get insider info to make millions in polymarket…none of them care about human lives. Remove the entire trump family. They are all criminals. Kushner took a bribe from the arabs and then he betrayed them. This trump family put all Americans at risk for retaliation when most of us are against the war. Where are the Epstein files??
 
特朗普的儿子们是无人机市场的投资者，并获得内部信息在Polymarket上赚取数百万……他们根本不关心人命。应该把整个特朗普家族都清除掉。他们都是罪犯。库什纳从阿拉伯人那里收受贿赂，然后背叛了他们。这家特朗普家族让所有美国人在大多数人反对战争的情况下面临报复风险。爱泼斯坦的档案在哪里？
 
@richardbixler
The problem is military leadership has known this for a long time. Politicians get a better cut… oops I’m meant “donation” if they approve a billion dollar fighter jet that looks cool.
 
问题在于，军事领导层早就知道这一点。政治家如果批准一架看起来很酷的十亿美元战斗机，就能得到更好的“捐赠”……哎，我是说“捐款”。
 
@OnIineGaming
Good thing that we can check most of the facts even if the news only show us what they perceive as usable, attacker spends less ,i feel that those kind of drones can definitely defend the same kind of attack
 
好消息是，即使新闻只向我们展示他们认为可用的信息，我们仍然可以核实大多数事实。攻击者花费较少，我觉得这些类型的无人机确实可以防御同样的攻击。
 
@theowl3756
The most likely long-term outcome of this ill conceived war by Netanyahu and Trump is that all countries of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf would realize that their only real protection is acquiring Nuke. The Iranians knew that and are proven to be correct. And now, The Arab rulers realize that having treaties and the U.S. military bases would not provide protection, and makes them the targets of the U.S. adversaries. In addition, the U.S. military bases are viewed as occupying forces by the nationalist forces within these countries. In short, the only way the Middle East and Persian Gulf states can have any level of protection and security is acquiring Nuke. The methods of acquiring Nuke weapons will depend on the technical expertise and financial ability of each single country. But the race is on.
 
内塔尼亚胡和特朗普这场考虑不周的战争最可能的长期结果是，所有中东和波斯湾国家意识到他们唯一真正的保护就是拥有核武器。伊朗人知道这一点，并且证明他们是正确的。现在，阿拉伯统治者意识到，拥有条约和美国军事基地并不能提供保护，反而使他们成为美国对手的目标。此外，美国军事基地在这些国家的民族主义力量眼中被视为占领军。简而言之，中东和波斯湾国家唯一能够获得任何程度的保护和安全的方法就是获得核武器。获取核武器的方法将取决于每个国家的技术专长和财务能力。但竞赛已经开始。
 
@lockman004
Funny. It turn out that the Ukraine was holding the "Trump" cards after all while Donald and JD were clueless. What an incompetent set of fools driving America to ruin. Shame on all the Trump voters for ruining Americas hard won reputation around the world and leading us to economic hardship.
 
有趣的是，结果证明乌克兰实际上掌握着“特朗普”牌，而唐纳德和JD却毫不知情。真是一群无能的傻瓜，让美国走向毁灭。所有特朗普的选民都应该感到羞愧，因为他们毁掉了美国在世界上辛苦赢得的声誉，并导致我们陷入经济困境。
 
@Valkyri3Z
Iran is actually fighting the war that was needed to be fought. Really proud of them. The economic warfare that US wages by weaponizing the world financial system that was supposed to follow rule of law has been turned back at them.
 
伊朗实际上在打这场必须要打的战争。我为他们感到自豪。美国通过武器化全球金融体系发动的经济战争，本应遵循法治，但现在已经反过来了。
 
@bazzlecouture
He said the quiet part put that the leader of the Iranian Regime issue a religious rule to ban the creation of a nuclear b0mb,buy yet they're selling to us these people are days away from the NB
 
他说出了隐秘的部分，伊朗政权的领导人发布了宗教法令，禁止制造核炸弹，但他们却在向我们出售这些东西，这些人距离拥有核武器只有几天的时间。
 
@greganderson9092
The drones along the straight are currently being knocked out of the sky and a very cheap price. A10 warthogs and Apaches have been shooting drones out of the sky with shot burst of about 4 to 5 rounds which cost probably around 100 bucks
 
直布罗陀海峡上的无人机目前正以非常低的价格被击落。A-10攻击机和阿帕奇直升机用大约4到5发的短暂射击将无人机击落，这可能只花费了大约100美元。
 
@marktrinidad7650
If the future of warfare are multiple cheap munitions then that would be a problem for the military industrial complex. They would really lobby very hard to fight these things or they might fight a way to pay politicians for approving"multiple expensive munitions" are much better.
 
如果未来的战争是多种廉价弹药，这对军事工业综合体来说将是个问题。他们会非常努力地游说反对这些东西，或者他们可能会找到办法给政治家们支付“批准多种昂贵弹药”的费用，因为这样更好。
 
@michaelwhite9637
There are a lot of very intelligent young people out there who will soon figure out how to miniaturize a nuclear weapon and put it in the nose of a drone, or maybe put it inside  SEACAN and send it anywhere in the world.
外面有很多非常聪明的年轻人，他们很快就会想出如何将核武器小型化，并将其放入无人机的鼻锥中，或者可能放入SEACAN，送往世界任何地方。
 
@SuperNoname17
This war is hugely asymmetric, if you count just the 5 fueling tankers, the 3 F-15 E  and the F-35 that were already shot down or at least damaged you have almost 900 million dollars!!! Each F-15 E costs 117 million dollars!!! It's simply unsustainable folks !!!
 
这场战争严重不对称，如果仅计算已经被击落或至少受损的5艘加油船、3架F-15 E战斗机和F-35，你就会发现几乎损失了9亿美元！！！每架F-15 E的价格为1.17亿美元！！！这简直是不可持续的，各位！！！
 
@lachd2261
This is actually an old lesson - in wartime, the best weapons combine combat effectiveness with mass production. The T-34 was only a "good" tank in WW2 compared to some German ones, but when the Soviet unx was able to mass produce 55,000 of them it became exceptional. Drones are no different - would you rather have one tomahawk missile, or 110 drones? Even if only 10% of the drones hit their target, you did more damage for the same price than one tomahawk.
 
这其实是一个老教训——在战争期间，最好的武器是将作战效能与大规模生产相结合。T-34在二战中与一些德国坦克相比只是“不错”的坦克，但当苏联能够大规模生产55000辆时，它就变得卓越。无人机也没有什么不同——你宁愿拥有一枚战斧导弹，还是110架无人机？即使只有10%的无人机打击到目标，你花费同样的价格造成的损害也比一枚战斧多。
 
@blose4793
Jet fuel prices in Europe have spiked to about $220 per barrel, driven by Middle East supply disruptions, while U.S. gasoline has risen sharply to around $4 per gallon. Global oil prices are up more than 50% since the war began, crossing $110 per barrel, with Middle Eastern crude near $164. Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia are also climbing due to damaged Gulf facilities.
 
欧洲的喷气燃料价格已飙升至每桶约220美元，主要是由于中东供应中断，而美国的汽油价格也急剧上升至每加仑约4美元。自战争开始以来，全球油价上涨超过50%，突破每桶110美元，中东原油接近164美元。由于海湾设施受损，欧洲和亚洲的天然气价格也在攀升。
 
@PhillipBell
The drones are cheap, but it's the gas and insurance that kills you.  And the explosives, they kill you too.  But if those don't kill you, the gas and insurance will.
 
无人机便宜，但燃油和保险费用让你吃不消。而炸药也是一个大开销。但如果这些没有让你破产，那么燃油和保险就会。
 
@Darhan62
No way a bunch of small X-wing starfighters could take down the huge, heavily armored battle station called the Death Star.  The Empire spent a lot of credits on that thing.  It would be painful to lose it.
 
一群小型X翼星际战斗机根本无法摧毁那个巨大的、重甲的战斗站——死星。帝国在那东西上花了很多信用点。失去它会很痛苦。
 
@divineinterventiontkb
How many sanctions are too many sanctions? When you isolate a country, you also insulte it from external factors like economic dependence. For example you can isolate North Korea, Iran any further. Now they are insulted. Make them dependent then sanctions
 
多少制裁才算太多？当你孤立一个国家时，你也会使其脱离经济依赖等外部因素。例如，你无法进一步孤立朝鲜、伊朗。现在他们感到被侮辱。让他们依赖，然后再制裁。
 
@yoon-sookim1171
These mass autonomous attacks are possible or being used effectively, because it's for wars - where the purpose is to simply destroy and those who use them won't care much if any innocent lives are mistakenly lost by AI or machines
 
这些大规模自主攻击之所以能够实施或有效利用，是因为它们是在战争中进行的——目的仅仅是摧毁，而使用它们的人不会太在意无辜生命是否会被人工智能或机器错误地夺去。
 
@GreenStorm01
Drones can be assembled by much smaller states. But Iran is actually a country with industrial capacity that would be in the G20 if it weren't for sanctions because of the nuclear program, and probably in the G7 if not having any sanctions.
 
无人机可以由更小的国家组装。但伊朗实际上是一个拥有工业能力的国家，如果不是由于核计划的制裁，它应该在G20中，甚至如果没有任何制裁，可能还会在G7中。
 
@steffenwurster352
There goes the allmighty US military, ancient history. Once longbows and strongbows endet the power of the knights, now drones.
 
这就是昔日强大的美国军队的历史了。曾经长弓和重弓结束了骑士的统治，现在则是无人机。
 
@derrickrussell8933
This is why american Shermans won tank battles against Panzers. The Panzers were technological marvels, but the US mass produced Shermans and won mostly by number and situational awareness. People get caught up on how much a single missile can take out. Doesn't matter when Iran can spend a fraction of the cost per drone.
 
这就是为什么美国的谢尔曼坦克在与豹式坦克的战斗中获胜的原因。豹式坦克是技术奇迹，但美国大规模生产谢尔曼坦克，主要靠数量和战场意识获胜。人们总是纠结于单枚导弹能造成多少损害，但当伊朗每架无人机的成本只是其中一部分时，这些都无所谓。
 
@aaronmartin6634
The American people need to bring back American businesses and factorys stop buying from China and start building American production back the options of keeping American job in America shouldn't be an option.
 
美国人民需要让美国企业和工厂复苏，停止从中国购买，开始重建美国的生产。让美国的工作留在美国不应该是一个选择。
 
@chrismayfield7916
We've known about Iran's drones for a long time.  We've been making drones for a long time.  We've got solutions for shooting down drones that cost maybe a few dollars.  $3 versus $35,000 drone.  We've already got cheaper drones than Iran has and we can mass produce them too.  This is not something we're oblivious to.  We don't only have patriots, there are a bunch of different air defense systems.  Most of Iran's drones do not make it through, but that's precisely why Iran mostly attacks a bunch of civilian targets where we don't have as many air defenses setup at.
 
 
我们早就知道伊朗有无人机。我们也制造无人机很久了。我们有一些可能只需几美元就能击落无人机的解决方案。3美元对比35000美元的无人机。我们已经拥有比伊朗更便宜的无人机，而且我们也能大规模生产它们。这不是我们所不知道的事情。我们不仅仅有爱国者导弹，还有许多不同的防空系统。大多数伊朗的无人机根本无法通过，但这正是伊朗主要攻击我们没有设置太多防空系统的民用目标的原因。
 
@tombattisti8682
Thank you for finally calling attention to the radical changes in offensive and defensive weaponry. Though I very much doubt the US military industrial complex will adapt without an enormous struggle. They recognize too much is at stake and not just their guaranteed $1 trillion annual budget. Ironically the prospect that hundreds of billions of dollars might be spent on healthcare, scientific research, alternative energy etc is possible. If US politicians seize the moment.
 
感谢你终于关注到攻防武器的根本变化。虽然我非常怀疑美国军事工业综合体会在没有巨大的斗争下适应。他们意识到面临的风险太大，不仅仅是他们保障的每年1万亿美元的预算。具有讽刺意味的是，数百亿美元可能会用于医疗保健、科学研究、替代能源等。如果美国政客能够抓住这个时机。
 
@vernicethompson4825
Yours is an accurate take in my view.  What's rarely mentioned is the original reason that Iran wanted nuclear weapons, a reason that still exists:  both of its neighbors, India and Pakistan, are in a nuclear standoff.  Iran's government (not "regime") sees that Iran could be damaged or destroyed if those two nations should engage in nuclear war.  Iran may see its own possession of nuclear weapons as a deterrent to its two neighbors going all the way toward nuclear war.  If other nations would just ask Iran's leaders if this is indeed the case, then a proper deal with Iran, India and Pakistan all together could be worked out.  Negotiating with Iran alone does not alleviate Iran's concerns about its neighbors.  Any deal with Iran must take into account Iran's own concerns about threats to its sovereignty and safety.
 
在我看来，你的看法是准确的。很少有人提到伊朗想要核武器的最初原因，这个原因至今仍然存在：它的两个邻国，印度和巴基斯坦，处于核对峙状态。伊朗的政府（而不是“政权”）认为，如果这两个国家发生核战争，伊朗可能会受到损害或被摧毁。伊朗可能将自身拥有核武器视为对其两个邻国走向核战争的威慑。如果其他国家能问问伊朗的领导人这是否属实，那么就可以与伊朗、印度和巴基斯坦共同达成合适的协议。单独与伊朗谈判并不能缓解伊朗对邻国的担忧。与伊朗达成的任何协议必须考虑到伊朗对主权和安全威胁的关注。
 
@robvision3888
America tax payers are responsible for paying the 2 Trillion dollar bill for the entire F35 program. Boeing said the F35 was impossible to track on radar. Now we find out the F35 can be tracked by a cheaper method than radar (thermal, flir)…. Ooops.. what an expensive mistake
 
美国纳税人负责支付整个F35计划的2万亿美元账单。波音公司曾表示F35在雷达上是不可能被追踪的。现在我们发现F35可以通过比雷达更便宜的方法（热成像，FLIR）被追踪……哎呀，真是个昂贵的错误
 
@Raziel312
Yeah.. because building killer robots and AIs to fight our wars for us has never gone wrong.. except every sci-fi story ever.
 
是啊……因为让杀手机器人和人工智能为我们打仗从来没有出错过……除了每一个科幻故事。
 
@MickyChowMein69
The newer patriot interceptor missiles are actually $7,000,000 and America had to use four to shoot down one Shaheed the other day. I like Ukraine's solution. Layers of defence that incluce mobile ground units, helicopters, ground light IR sam launchers, men with MANPADs , Gepard guns and the various Soviet types. Layers upon layers upon layers.
 
更新版爱国者拦截导弹的实际价格是700万美元，而美国前几天为了击落一架Shaheed无人机用了四枚。我喜欢乌克兰的解决方案。防御层次包括移动地面单位、直升机、地面轻型红外短程防空发射器、携带便携式防空导弹的士兵、格帕德炮和各种苏联类型的武器。层层叠叠。
 
@johnsmith56920
There is a thing I don't understand. Why countries like Iran or Ukraine can't load their drones with radioactive junk (they have it in loads) and send them into the attacking countries water ways of supplies or even cities. What prevent them to fight dirty since their opponents 'goal is to obliterate them?
 
我有个不明白的地方。为什么像伊朗或乌克兰这样的国家不能用放射性垃圾装载他们的无人机（他们手上有大量放射性物质），然后送到进攻国家的供给水道甚至城市呢？是什么阻止他们采取肮脏的手段，因为他们的对手的目标是消灭他们？
 
@Singh-ke7kz
This is probably the first time in History where a country with the best aircrafts in the world is loosing against a country with no aircrafts at all. The intelligence of Central Intelligence Agency seems to have vanished into thin Air.
In this situation, the only way to win this war is by using cheap aircrafts fast enough to chase and shoot down drones with a machine gun.
 
这可能是历史上第一次，一个拥有世界上最佳飞机的国家却在与一个根本没有飞机的国家作斗争中失利。中央情报局的情报似乎已经消失得无影无踪。在这种情况下，赢得这场战争的唯一方法就是使用便宜的飞机，以足够快的速度追击并用机关枪击落无人机。
 
@nsng1298
MacArthur advised JFK not to get involved in any land war in Asia. He warned JFK, "Anyone wanting to commit ground troops to Asia should have his head examined."
Unfortunately, American presidents never heed MacArthur's words.
 
麦克阿瑟曾建议肯尼迪不要卷入任何亚洲的地面战争。他警告肯尼迪：“任何想要向亚洲派遣地面部队的人都应该好好检查一下他的头脑。” 不幸的是，美国总统们从未听取麦克阿瑟的话。
 
@anocri
Talking about drones, missiles, and interceptors — and how to build them — has become a daily topic of conversation.
I wanted to get married and have children. But when I think about it, what’s the point of bringing kids into a war-mongering world where it’s already hard to make ends meet, raise children, and provide them with a good education?
 
谈论无人机、导弹和拦截器——以及如何制造它们——已成为日常话题。我曾想过结婚生子。但仔细想想，把孩子带到一个好战的世界里，生活已经很难维持，抚养孩子并提供良好的教育，这有什么意义？
 
@ChronikDesWahns
This arithmetics mass against highly developed but scarce weapons was already used by Russia in WW2. Tens of thousands simple and lightweight T34 tanks, easy to maintain and repair,  against few thousand German Tiger, a difficult monster. The principle was exploited too in late medi times. Swiss farmer-soldiers with hellebards against few highly and very costly equipped armoured  knights on horse. With hellebards they were pulled from the horses and then hacked to pieces by the Swiss peasants, what a shame for the french noblemen.
 
这种用数量庞大的简单武器对抗高度发达但稀缺的武器的算术方法在二战期间就已被苏联使用。数以万计的简单且轻便的T34坦克，易于维护和修理，对抗几千辆德国虎式坦克，这是一种复杂的怪物。这一原则在中世纪末期也被利用。瑞士农民士兵用长柄矛对抗少数装备精良且非常昂贵的骑士。瑞士农民用长柄矛将他们从马背上拉下，然后砍成碎片，真是对法国贵族的耻辱。
 
@THE_Dodge_Morningstar
We shouldn't simply look at this as a change in warfare. It should open eyes about how the tools everyone on earth has gained access to, in the past 15- 20 years, make a lot of the fundamental systems that we've taken for granted as necessary parts of human society... Either unnecessary or absurdly obsolete in their current forms. Especially when it comes to how we view leadership and representative government. In the states, we fight over stiff like voter identification and ballot boxes (which is almost as silly as arguing over the number of gas lanterns in public, when you think about the current level of technology available just to unlock your phone and buy a coffee), when the real question should be about us continuing to use archaic methods of leadership and representation. Even though we currently have access to vast amounts of information, and the ability to communicate with people anywhere in the world, literally in the palm of our hands.
 
我们不应该仅仅把这看作是战争形式的变化。它应该让人们意识到，在过去15到20年中，地球上每个人都获得的工具，使得我们一直认为是人类社会必要部分的许多基本系统……要么变得不必要，要么在当前形式下显得极其过时。特别是在我们如何看待领导和代议制政府的问题上。在美国，我们争论着投票身份识别和选票箱的问题（想到当前可用的技术，仅仅是解锁手机和买咖啡时，争论公共场所的煤气灯数量几乎是一样荒谬），而真正的问题应该是我们为什么还在继续使用陈旧的领导和代表方式。尽管我们现在可以获取大量信息，并能够与世界任何地方的人进行交流，实际上这一切都在我们手掌之中。
 
If you ask why does a country need billion dollar war machines, you have to also ask: "Why am I using these archaic methods to gamble on picking some leader to control my life and declare sketchy wars? When hypothetically I can hear about a problem, research it, discuss it, and vote on how I think it should be handled, all from the bathroom during my lunch break?"
 
如果你问一个国家为什么需要价值十亿美元的战争机器，你也必须问：“为什么我还在使用这些陈旧的方法来赌谁能成为控制我生活并宣战的领导者？假设我可以在午休时在卫生间里听到一个问题，研究它，讨论它，并投票决定我认为应该如何处理。”
 
@matse2627
It will take years for the US to produce the munitions it used in this conflict. And other countries, such as China, know this too.
 
美国需要多年才能生产出在这场冲突中使用的弹药。而其他国家，比如中国，也知道这一点。