看到伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡，印度人幻想假如和中国冲突，自己也能封锁马六甲海峡
If Iran with almost no navy, weak air force and a crippled economy can threaten the Strait of Hormuz, what would India do to the Strait of Malacca in a conflict with China?
译文简介
印中发生冲突时，马六甲海峡会怎样？
正文翻译
If Iran with almost no navy, weak air force and a crippled economy can threaten the Strait of Hormuz, what would India do to the Strait of Malacca in a conflict with China?
如果几乎没有海军、空军薄弱且经济遭受重创的伊朗都能威胁到霍尔木兹海峡，那么在与中国发生冲突时，印度会对马六甲海峡采取什么行动呢？
If a country like Iran, which has a limited navy, an aging air force and a heavily sanctioned economy, is still able to seriously threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, it raises an interesting question.
What would happen in the Strait of Malacca during a conflict between India and China?
China depends massively on this route. More than **80% of its crude oil imports** and around **two-thirds of its total maritime trade** pass through the Malacca Strait. If that route gets disrupted, the impact on the Chinese economy would be severe within weeks.
Looking at how Iran is able to create global concern just by threatening Hormuz, it makes me think that the Malacca Strait could be one of the biggest strategic pressure points against China in a wartime scenario.
I hope Indian military planners are closely studying these developments and thinking about how similar chokepoints could play a role in future conflicts.[https://warsawinstitute.org/China-malacca-dilemma/](https://warsawinstitute.org/China-malacca-dilemma/)
如果像伊朗这样一个海军力量有限、空军老化、经济受到严厉制裁的国家，依然能对霍尔木兹海峡的航运构成严重威胁，这就引出了一个有趣的问题。
印中发生冲突时，马六甲海峡会怎样？
中国极度依赖这条航线。其超过**80%的原油进口**和约**三分之二的海上总贸易量**都要经过马六甲海峡。如果这条航线被切断，不出几周，中国经济就会受到严重冲击。
看看伊朗仅仅是威胁霍尔木兹海峡就能引发全球担忧，这让我觉得，在战时情况下，马六甲海峡可能是对付中国最大的战略施压点之一。
我希望印度的军事规划者们正在密切关注这些事态发展，并思考类似的咽喉要道在未来冲突中能发挥怎样的作用。
如果几乎没有海军、空军薄弱且经济遭受重创的伊朗都能威胁到霍尔木兹海峡，那么在与中国发生冲突时，印度会对马六甲海峡采取什么行动呢？
If a country like Iran, which has a limited navy, an aging air force and a heavily sanctioned economy, is still able to seriously threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, it raises an interesting question.
What would happen in the Strait of Malacca during a conflict between India and China?
China depends massively on this route. More than **80% of its crude oil imports** and around **two-thirds of its total maritime trade** pass through the Malacca Strait. If that route gets disrupted, the impact on the Chinese economy would be severe within weeks.
Looking at how Iran is able to create global concern just by threatening Hormuz, it makes me think that the Malacca Strait could be one of the biggest strategic pressure points against China in a wartime scenario.
I hope Indian military planners are closely studying these developments and thinking about how similar chokepoints could play a role in future conflicts.[https://warsawinstitute.org/China-malacca-dilemma/](https://warsawinstitute.org/China-malacca-dilemma/)
如果像伊朗这样一个海军力量有限、空军老化、经济受到严厉制裁的国家，依然能对霍尔木兹海峡的航运构成严重威胁，这就引出了一个有趣的问题。
印中发生冲突时，马六甲海峡会怎样？
中国极度依赖这条航线。其超过**80%的原油进口**和约**三分之二的海上总贸易量**都要经过马六甲海峡。如果这条航线被切断，不出几周，中国经济就会受到严重冲击。
看看伊朗仅仅是威胁霍尔木兹海峡就能引发全球担忧，这让我觉得，在战时情况下，马六甲海峡可能是对付中国最大的战略施压点之一。
我希望印度的军事规划者们正在密切关注这些事态发展，并思考类似的咽喉要道在未来冲突中能发挥怎样的作用。
评论翻译
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likes: 59
China's Malacca vulnerability is a present, unresolved, and deepening one, but a Malacca disruption doesn't just hurt China. Japan routes roughly 40% of its maritime trade through the strait. South Korea and Taiwan are similarly exposed.
Any Indian action that chokes Malacca will trigger a multilateral economic crisis. The neutral shipping nations like Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia would face enormous pressure to resist or work around any blockade. The price incentive for neutral states to erode a blockade would be massive.
Iran can threaten Hormuz because it has little to lose diplomatically. India's calculus is the opposite, as it is a rising global trading power with everything to lose from being seen as a destabilising force in the world's most trafficked waterway.
The threat is the strategy. The use of it may be a mistake.
中国的“马六甲困局”是一个现实的、尚未解决且日益加深的弱点，但马六甲海峡航运受阻不仅会伤害中国。日本约40%的海上贸易也经由该海峡。韩国和台湾（地区）也面临同样的风险。
印度任何封锁马六甲的行动都会引发多边经济危机。像印尼、新加坡和马来西亚这样的中立航运国将面临巨大压力，它们必然会抵制或试图绕过任何封锁。对中立国来说，打破封锁背后的经济利益诱惑是巨大的。
伊朗敢威胁霍尔木兹海峡，是因为它在外交上已经没什么可失去的了。但印度的考量则截然相反，作为一个正在崛起的全球贸易大国，如果被视为世界上最繁忙水道的破坏性力量，它将失去一切。
威慑本身才是战略。真正去实施它可能是一个错误。
RedDeadu1
likes: 16
We don't have to close the strait. We have the capability to board ships, check their manifest and seize them.
我们不必封锁海峡。我们完全有能力登船、检查货物清单并扣押船只。
Confident_Method_110
likes: 1
malacca isn't even close to being as critical, because ships can simply sail around via straits in indonesia. China would have to simultaneously have problems with indonesia and australia for this to be a major issue for them. but then, india has a dominating position in the entire ocean. so until and unless China executes its string of pearls strategy fully and creates significant bases, this won't prove to be an issue. also, the obvious caveat is we won't be seeing any goods from China supplying our industry either.
马六甲海峡根本没那么致命，因为船只完全可以绕道印尼的其他海峡。只有当中国同时和印尼以及澳大利亚交恶时，这才会成为他们的一个大麻烦。不过话又说回来，印度在整个印度洋占据着主导地位。所以，除非中国全面落实其“珍珠链”战略并建立起重要的基地，否则这就构不成什么实质性问题。另外，一个显而易见的副作用是，我们的工业也休想再得到任何来自中国的商品供应了。
Keshav_chauhan
likes: 47
Unsurprisingly China has already started investing in alternatives, to some extent.
Moreover, Japan, South Korea and SEA countries will be collateral victims of blockade.
And the Strait of Malacca is an 800 km long passage, that involves sovereignty of Indonesia and Malaysia, I doubt these countries will pretty much cooperate with us for blockade.
This feels like a diplomatic sucide.
Also, unlike the situation of Strait of Hormuz, there are alternatives to Malacca Strait.
E.g - Lambok Strait (most Chinese heavy tanker passes from here), sunda strait.
These straits just increase the cost of transportation, that's it.
Edit - Don't forget China can easily import gas and oil from russia through pipelines and direct passage.
不出所料，中国已经在一定程度上开始投资替代方案了。
此外，日本、韩国和东南亚国家也会成为封锁的无辜受害者。
再者，马六甲海峡是一条长达800公里的通道，牵涉到印尼和马来西亚的主权，我很怀疑这些国家是否会乖乖配合我们进行封锁。
这感觉就像是外交自杀。
另外，与霍尔木兹海峡的情况不同，马六甲海峡是有替代路线的。
例如龙目海峡（大多数中国重型油轮都走这条线）和巽他海峡。
这些海峡顶多就是增加点运输成本罢了，仅此而已。
编辑补充 - 别忘了中国还可以通过管道和直达陆路轻松地从俄罗斯进口天然气和石油。
Fourier_Unrequited
likes: 14
not disagreeing neccessarily, but on the collateral victim part, Hormuz holds pretty much the whole world as collateral. So I think that'll be a common denominator.
不一定反对你的看法，但在“无辜受害者”这一点上，霍尔木兹海峡几乎把全世界都绑架成了人质。所以我认为这是一个共同点。
manek101
likes: 5
Difference is that for Iran it'll be much cheaper to hold the world as collateral as they were already sanctioned to the ground.
India can't do that.
区别在于，对伊朗来说，把全世界当人质的代价要小得多，因为他们早就被制裁得体无完肤了。
印度可做不到这一点。
Appropriate_Mixer
likes: 5
Alternatives are not used in military equipment which is what’s important
军事装备上是用不了替代品的，这才是关键所在。
Keshav_chauhan
likes: 3
???Pls explain a bit.
？？？请详细解释一下。
Brigadier--Pratap
likes: 25
China won't escalate such situation with India unless they're in great danger
For the Chinese India is the dumping yard for their excess production, Chinese export like 100 billion worth stuffs to India while we export like 15 billion or something.
Chinese would prefer giving arms to broke military dictatorship like Pakistan to fight India as a proxy than direct warfare.
If we talk about Malacca strait the Chinese are reviving the silk route trade, also the artic route is getting more shipments. They also planning to use Myanmar, as of now both Chinese plans and Indian (sittwe port) is in limbo due to the rise of arakkan army.
除非自身面临巨大危险，否则中国不会与印度将局势升级到那种地步。
对中国人来说，印度是他们过剩产能的倾销地，中国向印度出口了价值大概1000亿美元的商品，而我们对他们的出口额大概只有150亿美元。
比起直接开战，中国更倾向于向巴基斯坦这种破产的军事独裁政权提供武器，让其作为代理人与印度作战。
如果说到马六甲海峡，中国人正在复兴丝绸之路贸易，同时北极航线的货运量也在增加。他们还计划借道缅甸，但由于若开军的崛起，目前中国和印度（实兑港）的计划都处于停滞状态。
grumpy_bumpy
likes: 4
Yup plus one on the arctic route…both Russia and China are heavily invested in that which is also one of the reasons for US looking at greenland.
同意，北极航线确实值得一提……俄罗斯和中国都在这方面投入了巨资，这也是美国盯上格陵兰岛的原因之一。
fookin_legund
likes: 29
The ships will just go around through other straits. It will be expensive but it's not a complete bottleneck like hormuz.
船只大可绕道其他海峡。虽然成本会很高，但这不像霍尔木兹海峡那样是个彻底的死胡同。
SignSilly7350
likes: 42
The Strait of Malacca is significantly wider overall than the Strait of Hormuz , This allows Iran to have superior control also its Geographically closer to Iran's mainland than when you compare India to Malacca
总体而言，马六甲海峡比霍尔木兹海峡宽阔得多，这让伊朗拥有更强的控制力。而且从地理上看，它离伊朗本土的距离，要比印度离马六甲海峡近得多。
Keshav_chauhan
likes: 9
Our capacity to do this, is not a problem. Just hitting one or two ships with Brahmos or even drones, will cause fear among insurance companies.
The main problem is the diplomatic cost.
Moreover there are plenty of alternatives to it.
我们的封锁能力不是问题。只需用“布拉莫斯”导弹甚至无人机击中一两艘船，就能在保险公司中引发恐慌。
主要问题在于外交代价。
更何况这还有很多替代路线。
Effective_Bluebird19
likes: 4
Significantly wider? Nope.
The upcoming Great Nicobar Proejct which includes Naval base and airstrips in just 70 Kms away.
宽阔得多？并非如此。
即将推进的大尼科巴项目包含了海军基地和简易机场，距离那里仅仅只有70公里。
SignSilly7350
likes: 5
It is very wide compared to Hormuz, Actually twice-thrice at most places
And? Is it the mainland?
和霍尔木兹海峡相比，它真的非常宽了，在大多数地方实际上有两到三倍宽。
而且那又怎样？那是本土吗？
proudtobebanned
likes: 7
People love confidently quoting materially wrong assertions. "Wide" is a basic attribute, comparison of navigable shipping lane widths, channel geometry, and depth constraints matter more for military and economic purposes.
Even so, at its narrowest, Hormuz Strait is ~33km wide, Malacc is ~2.8km wide. Typical shipping lane width in Hormuz is 3km per lane, 0.5-0.8km per lane for Malacca. So navigable corridors, with 1:1 buffer channels, are ~9km wide for Hormuz vs ~1-1.5km for Malacca. Hormuz navigation corridors are therefore 6X-9X wider.
Average depth for Hormuz is ~40-90m, ~25m for Malacca. It is the reason why Hormuz has practically no draft restrictions whereas Malacca transit has the Malaccamax draft limit of 21m. It is also why ULCC super tankers can't transit Malacca and need to detour thousands of kms via Lombok or Sunda straits as it is.
And whereas both Hormuz and Malacca account for ~20% of global seaborne oil trade each, ~25-30% global trade also passes through Malacca. So it is a much, much bigger geostrategic chokepoint that particularly affects China.
人们总是喜欢信誓旦旦地引用大错特错的论断。“宽”只是一个基本属性，对于军事和经济目的而言，比较可通航的航道宽度、航道几何形状和水深限制才更重要。
即便如此，霍尔木兹海峡最窄处也有约33公里宽，而马六甲海峡仅约2.8公里宽。霍尔木兹海峡典型的单向航道宽度为3公里，而马六甲海峡仅为0.5至0.8公里。因此，算上1:1的缓冲区，霍尔木兹海峡的通航走廊宽约9公里，而马六甲海峡只有1至1.5公里。也就是说，霍尔木兹海峡的通航走廊要宽上6到9倍。
霍尔木兹海峡的平均水深约为40-90米，而马六甲海峡约为25米。这就是为什么霍尔木兹海峡几乎没有吃水限制，而马六甲海峡则有21米的“马六甲型”最大吃水限制。这也是为什么超大型油轮无法通过马六甲海峡，只能绕道龙目海峡或巽他海峡多走几千公里的原因。
虽然霍尔木兹海峡和马六甲海峡各占全球海运石油贸易的约20%，但全球约25-30%的贸易量也途径马六甲海峡。因此，它是一个大得多的地缘战略咽喉，对中国的影响尤为突出。
[dexed]
likes: 8
150km to be exact, not big enough that indian navy would not be able to control, also Iran is using mines and AUVs we would have much larger firepower being 1000km away than Iran being next door, we also have anti ship missile iran does not
准确地说是150公里，这距离还没大到印度海军无法控制的地步。另外，伊朗用的是水雷和自主水下航行器，而我们在1000公里外能投射的火力，绝对比就在隔壁的伊朗大得多，而且我们还有伊朗没有的反舰导弹。
donaldtrumpisntme
likes: 7
want to turn Indian soft power into North Korean PR?
go choke up Malacca.
Singapore can choke is 15 times more efficiently than us yet they wouldn’t even do it even in a doomsday battle scenario.
想把印度的软实力搞得像朝鲜的公关形象一样吗？
那就去封锁马六甲海峡吧。
新加坡封锁海峡的效率比我们高15倍，但即使到了世界末日般的战争场景，他们也不会这么做。
_DoodleBug_
likes: 7
Iran’s power comes from the fact that it no longer has anything to lose. The West has put it in this position. Hope that India will never be in a similar situation.
伊朗的力量源于它已经一无所有、无所顾忌了。是西方把它逼到了这个地步。希望印度永远不会落入类似的境地。
BodybuilderOk3160
likes: 17
Good way to anger all of our Southeast Asian neighbours if you do that.
Better stop thinking about this from a western think-tank POV.
如果这么做，绝对能完美激怒我们所有的东南亚邻国。
最好别再用西方智库的角度来思考这个问题了。
[dexed]
likes: 0
Oh, fine then, it would be diplomatic suicide, that's sure, but a war that widespread, do you really need to worry about diplomatic or our national interest? At last, we only need the support of Japan and the US if we have them, everything else can be done after the end of the conflict.
哦，那好吧，这肯定是外交自杀，但一场波及如此之广的战争，你还顾得上担心外交或我们的国家利益吗？到最后，我们只需要日本和美国的支持（如果我们能得到的话），其他的都可以在冲突结束后再处理。
Keshav_chauhan
likes: 0
>Japan
Why would Japan support us after the blockade, that resource poor Island, is mostly dependent on sea trade for its survival.
>the US
Means a full blown war (both China and India aren't willing to fight long wars.
>do you really need to worry about diplomatic or our national interest?
Both are the same things in long term.
Moreover as I have said in my previous comment, alternatives to Malacca Strait are available. The diplomatic cost ain't worth it.
Edit - bro you dexed your account, at least read my reply.
>日本
封锁海峡后日本凭什么支持我们？那个资源匮乏的岛国主要靠海上贸易生存。
>美国
这意味着全面战争（中印两国都不愿打持久战）。
>你还顾得上担心外交或我们的国家利益吗？
从长远来看，这两者是一码事。
此外，正如我之前的评论所言，马六甲海峡是有替代路线的。付出这样的外交代价并不划算。
编辑补充 - 兄弟，你把账号都注销了，好歹看看我的回复吧。
Gamer_4_l1f3
likes: 3
Because they'll start masking themselves as Japanese, Taiwanese, Indonesian, Vietnamese ships (God knows what other country I've missed). Just turn off your transponders, rename the ship and fly their flags. Iran just hits everyone, if we do that then we will always have a % of friendly fire.
因为他们会开始把自己伪装成日本、台湾（地区）、印尼或越南的船只（天知道我还漏了哪个国家）。只要关掉应答器，给船改个名，再挂上这些地方的旗帜就行了。伊朗是见谁打谁，如果我们也这么做，那势必会造成一定比例的误伤。
FunLoan5201
likes: 15
you are overlooking the Indonesian Navy...... don't underestimate these guys..... during the 1965 war they sent a warship to Pakistan to show support so we can never trust the indonesians
你忽视了印尼海军……千万别低估这些家伙……在1965年的战争中，他们曾派了一艘军舰去巴基斯坦表示支持，所以我们绝对不能信任印尼人。
BRAVO_Eight
likes: 12
The Indonesian navy is not as powerful as ours TBH. But viewing their naval history, They ain't pushovers as well . I don't think China is that stupid enough to enter into territories it cannot keep supplying in the long run , except for Naval reconnaissance & espionage purposes
But the Biggest force that India should fear or take concern on a serious note , is the pla strategic rocket forces , followed by the Air force
老实说，印尼海军确实不如我们强大。但纵观他们的海军历史，他们也不是好惹的。我认为中国没那么蠢，不会贸然进入他们无法长期维持补给的区域，除非是为了海军侦察和间谍活动。
不过，印度最应该忌惮和认真对待的力量，是中国人民解放军火箭军，其次才是空军。
HopelessEngineer_
likes: 3
One more thing to note is that Indonesia is rapidly improving their military. On top of that they have a very holistic foreign policy so we can never be sure that they will be on our sides, last but not the least they are a Muslim majority country so one more reason for them to not take our sides.
Indonesia is ranked 13th on Global Fire Power's Military strength ranking, 1 above Aand Forces and 2 above Israel. (Source : https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php). Yes, it is a fact that we are far more superior than them in terms of might but their goal is never to defeat us, instead they just have to resist our assault until logistical replenishment arrives from China. China is a manufacturing superpower so it won't be an issue for them.
Regarding the pla rocket force and pla Air Force, I agree with you.
还有一点需要注意的是，印尼正在迅速提升其军事实力。最重要的是，他们有着非常全面的外交政策，所以我们永远无法确定他们是否会站在我们这边，最后但同样重要的一点是，他们是一个穆斯林占多数的国家，这又给了他们一个不站在我们这边的理由。
印尼在“全球火力”军力排名中位列第13，比Aand部队高1位，比以色列高2位。没错，我们在纸面实力上确实远超他们，但他们的目标绝不是击败我们，而是只需抵抗我们的攻击，撑到中国后勤补给到达即可。中国是个制造业超级大国，所以这对他们来说根本不是问题。
至于中国火箭军和空军，我同意你的看法。
Leaking_milk
likes: 10
Yeah. India selling them Brahmos is a mistake. The Indonesians were caught trying to steal tech of KF-21 project to sell them to Chinese
没错。印度卖给他们“布拉莫斯”导弹就是个错误。印尼人被抓包试图窃取KF-21项目的技术并卖给中国人。
BRAVO_Eight
likes: 3
Brahmos eventually has to be replaced at one point with something far more superior
“布拉莫斯”迟早是要被更先进的武器所取代的。
Hajmola-Farts
likes: 5
Then why is india selling weapons to them?
那印度为什么还要卖武器给他们？
HopelessEngineer_
likes: 3
Easy money. Also to strengthen bilateral relations.
为了轻松赚钱呗。也是为了加强双边关系。
Hajmola-Farts
likes: 1
And then they turn around and sell the tech to China like they did with the Korean KF-21 fighter
然后他们转头就把技术卖给中国，就像他们对韩国的KF-21战斗机做的那样。
HopelessEngineer_
likes: 1
I mean we developed Brahmos with the help of Russia and they don't have balls to go against them for sure.
我的意思是，我们在俄罗斯的帮助下研发了“布拉莫斯”，他们肯定没胆子去招惹俄罗斯。
Hajmola-Farts
likes: 2
Wdym China has copied and stolen tons of Soviet and Russian tech. Almost all their weapon systems are made from Soviet or Russian tech (85%)
你什么意思，中国已经仿制和窃取了大量苏联和俄罗斯的技术。他们几乎所有的武器系统都是基于苏联或俄罗斯技术制造的（占比85%）。
HopelessEngineer_
likes: 1
I mean Indonesia.
我说的是印尼。
Hajmola-Farts
likes: 2
Indonesia has an ethnic Chinese population. China literally has a law that all Chinese people must spy for China when asked.
So it's not really about fearing Russia but more so loyalty to the Chinese nation.
印尼有华裔人口。中国明文规定，所有的中国人在被要求时都必须为中国从事间D活动。
所以这根本不是怕不怕俄罗斯的问题，更多是出于对中华民族的忠诚。 (译注：造谣)
grumpy_bumpy
likes: 3
There is a reason that China is investing in the arctic route because it should circumvent most of such issues that it might face in the future
中国大力投资北极航线是有原因的，因为这能避开他们未来可能面临的大部分此类问题。
DwarfBrainLord21
likes: 5
Iran has something that india doesnt-- political will
伊朗有印度所缺乏的东西——政治意愿。
Nexusdawn1021
likes: 2
100%
百分百赞同。
syner2009
likes: 2
we wont be blockading it. Other nations will be hurt too by the economic impact. Almost all of east asia uses the malacca strait. What we would be doing is, hitting every Chinese ship entering the Indian Ocean. Be it military or civilian.
我们不会去封锁海峡。其他国家也会受到经济冲击的伤害。几乎整个东亚都在使用马六甲海峡。我们要做的是，打击每一艘进入印度洋的中国船只。不管是军用的还是民用的。
Professional_Mind130
likes: 2
They can go round. Unlike strait of Hormuz, there are alternatives. Besides Iran can so easily block as they have land adjacent to it. Its not so easy for India.
他们可以绕道。跟霍尔木兹海峡不同，这是有其他替代路线的。此外，伊朗因为领土紧挨着海峡，所以能很轻易地实施封锁。对印度来说可就没那么容易了。
Correct-Plenty2421
likes: 2
The strait of hormuz has no alternatives, the malacca strait does. It won't be as big of a problem for China as the strait of hormuz is for everyone. And besides, they are acknowledging the problem rather than try to make themselves believe that everything is right.
霍尔木兹海峡没有替代路线，而马六甲海峡有。对中国来说，马六甲问题不会像霍尔木兹海峡对全世界那么致命。此外，他们正在正视这个问题，而不是自欺欺人地认为一切太平。
bholtu89
likes: 2
China has a far superior Navy and submarine fleet. It also has an alternate to Malacca at Sunda.
中国拥有远比我们强大的海军和潜艇舰队。他们在巽他海峡也有马六甲的替代路线。
barath_s
likes: 2
China's domestic oil production is 80% of India's oil needs ...
China has 120 days of oil storage and going to a year. India has 50=55 days and 21 days of LPG.
China has pipelines to Burma, and alternate routes that avoid Malacca, and Malacca is wider by far than straits
中国国内的石油产量就相当于印度石油需求的80%……
中国拥有足以维持120天的石油储备，甚至正朝着一年的储备量迈进。而印度只有50-55天的石油储备和21天的液化石油气储备。
中国有通往缅甸的输油管道，以及避开马六甲海峡的替代路线，而且马六甲海峡可比一般的海峡宽敞多了。
[dexed]
likes: 1
Yeah, we can, and I am always consistent with this point, not even a question. Iran is doing this with a few sea mines and drones. We have world-class anti-ship missiles, operating sub in just too damn hard in malacca starit, it is filled with countries that hate China their would be good enough intel for us
The gap between Nicobar and Indonesia is just 150km, the gap in Singapore is 10km, the depth is too shallow to hide a sub the route is too busy to move big assets unnoticed
And those saying the distance between mainland, it does not matter, we have more firepower even being that far than iran being next
是的，我们能做到，而且我始终坚持这一点，这根本毋庸置疑。伊朗靠区区几枚水雷和无人机就能搞定。我们拥有世界级的反舰导弹。在马六甲海峡操作潜艇实在是太难了，那里到处都是讨厌中国的国家，他们能为我们提供足够好的情报。
尼科巴群岛和印尼之间的距离只有150公里，在新加坡只有10公里宽，水太浅根本藏不住潜艇，航道太繁忙，大型舰艇根本无法在不被发现的情况下活动。
至于那些拿本土距离说事的人，这根本无关紧要。就算隔了那么远，我们的火力也远比就在隔壁的伊朗猛得多。
HopelessEngineer_
likes: 5
But you are ignoring one thing, Indonesia does not hate China as much as we do and they are rapidly climbing the ladder. It can be a headache for us to engage China in Malacca Strait if Indonesia resists, even though they might be not as powerful as we are.
但你忽略了一件事，印尼可不像我们这么讨厌中国，而且他们正在快速崛起。如果印尼出面阻挠，就算他们没有我们强大，我们在马六甲海峡与中国交手也会是个大麻烦。
[dexed]
likes: -1
I was referring to the country before Singapore, i do not think any other countries will help us more than Intel or would go in a conflict against us, siding with China. Most would be neutral, some would share intel
我指的是新加坡之前的那些国家。我认为没有任何其他国家会给我们提供除了情报之外的更多帮助，也没人会为了倒向中国而与我们发生冲突。大多数国家都会保持中立，有些国家会分享情报。
HopelessEngineer_
likes: 2
Sorry, my bad for that. Yes i do agree that most countries would at max share intel with us, most of it being OSINT though. But I am quite skeptical about Indonesia, they have a very dynamic approach towards their foreign relations with both India and China.
抱歉，我的错。是的，我同意大多数国家最多只会与我们分享情报，而且其中大部分还都是开源情报。但我对印尼持怀疑态度，他们在处理与印度和中国的外交关系时手法非常灵活机动。
Both-Manufacturer419
likes: 1
I suggest you look at a map. India is not near the Strait of Malacca. Chinese cargo ships can easily bypass the southern waters of India or change their route to the Sunda Strait.
我建议你看看地图。印度离马六甲海峡并不近。中国货船完全可以轻松避开印度南部海域，或者改走巽他海峡。