伊朗为何如此自信能够战胜美国？

R. W. Carmichael
R. W. 卡迈克尔

Iran is NOT “so confident it can defeat the US.” What Iran is confident of is that after all the smoke clears and the hostilities end, Iran will still be standing as it has for the past 7,000 year. A major reason for that confidence is the US-directed 1980 Iraq-Iran War. The US spent billions of dollars supporting their then buddy Sadaam Hussein in his attacks against Iran with the intention of destroying the government and the country. Instead, Iran won the war and the US had to intervene militarily to save Sadaam’s butt. The US has been constantly attacking the Iranian people since 1953. Yet Iran is still standing. And Iran will still be standing in 2053.

伊朗并非“如此自信能够击败美国”。伊朗所自信的是，当硝烟散尽、敌对行动结束时，伊朗仍将屹立不倒，正如过去七千年来一样。这种信心的一个重要原因在于1980年由美国主导的两伊战争。美国曾耗资数十亿美元支持其当时的盟友萨达姆·侯赛因进攻伊朗，意图摧毁该国政府与国家。然而，伊朗最终赢得了战争，美国不得不军事介入以挽救萨达姆政权。自1953年以来，美国持续对伊朗人民施压，但伊朗至今依然屹立。到2053年，伊朗仍将如此。

Alexander Meller
亚历山大·梅勒

I rather doubt current Iranian administration and military leaders are “confident it can defeat the U.S.”, but they don’t have to. All they need to do is not lose completely or surrender.

我相当怀疑当前伊朗政府和军方领导人是否“自信能够击败美国”，但他们并不需要做到这一点。他们所需要做的只是不完全失败或投降。

Iran is a mountainous country of 93 million. Several of the countries that border it would not want US troops to stage from there (e.g. Afghanistan, probably Turkmenistan). The US has bases almost surrounding Iran, but Iran is working to convince the hosting countries that this is not a good idea for those countries.

伊朗是一个拥有9300万人口的山地国家。与其接壤的多个国家可能不愿让美军从其境内发动行动（例如阿富汗，可能还有土库曼斯坦）。美国几乎在伊朗周边都设有军事基地，但伊朗正努力说服这些东道国，让美军驻扎对它们并非明智之举。

The US can try to “bomb Iran into the Stone Age” at great cost in civilian life, further extending the long lasting enmity from Iranians who consider that the US has been meddling in Iran since WWII, and resulting in the world condemning US actions even more than now. US boots on the ground would mean a huge troop commitment, staging from where? and fighting an asymmetric war … how well did Vietnam and Afghanistan go? How will did regime change in Afghanistan and Iraq go?

美国可以尝试以巨大的平民生命为代价“将伊朗炸回石器时代”，这将进一步延长伊朗人对美国的持久敌意——他们认为自二战以来美国一直在干预伊朗事务，并导致世界对美国的谴责比现在更甚。美国地面部队的介入将意味着巨大的兵力投入，从哪里部署？并且要打一场非对称战争……越南和阿富汗的情况如何？阿富汗和伊拉克的政权更迭又进行得怎样？

OK, how about arming the Kurds? Well, after previously being abandoned by the US, the Kurds are not going to trust the US, and the other ethnicities in Iran (majority Shia) won’t accept the Kurds running the show. Besides, the Kurds don’t have the numbers/forces to do it. Best you can get is the Kurds trying to create and hold a region to be the start of a Kurdish homeland … except … Turkey and Iraq will oppose this.

那么，武装库尔德人如何？嗯，在先前被美国抛弃之后，库尔德人不会再信任美国，而伊朗的其他民族（主要是什叶派）也不会接受库尔德人主导局面。此外，库尔德人没有足够的人数/力量来做到这一点。你能得到的最好结果是库尔德人试图建立并守住一个地区，作为库尔德家园的开端……但是……土耳其和伊拉克会反对这一点。

Meanwhile the Iranians can strongly influence who gets to ship oil past the strait of Hormuz (e.g. China) and who does not, or at least who pays for additional insurance.

与此同时，伊朗人可以强烈影响哪些国家（例如中国）能够通过霍尔木兹海峡运输石油，哪些国家不能，或者至少哪些国家需要支付额外的保险费用。

The best chance for the US is the Iranian populace takes to the streets and overthrows the current Iranian administration, probably with US support. But the assholes running Iran are not stupid, and have demonstrated the willingness to use violence on a very large scale to prevent this.

美国的最佳机会在于伊朗民众走上街头，推翻当前的伊朗政府，很可能需要美国的支持。但伊朗的那些混蛋统治者并不愚蠢，他们已经表现出愿意使用大规模暴力来阻止这种情况发生。

Jeff
杰夫

Sun Tzu, writing The Art of War thousands of years ago, isolated some military and political truths still studied today. Among these gems are the observations that distance and time compound difficulties exponentially.

数千年前著写《孙子兵法》的孙武，提炼出一些至今仍在研究的军事与政治真理。这些智慧结晶中包括对距离和时间会呈指数级增加困难的观察。

In short fighting on home turf is an enormous advantage and fighting from half a world away incredibly difficult and expensive.

简而言之，在本土作战具有巨大优势，而从半个世界之外作战则极其困难且代价高昂。

Time likewise is not on the side of the invader. True, the USA can initially overwhelm Iran’s military, just as it did Iraq’s forces in the spring of 2003. However it is worth noting, as our generals have, that Iran is three times larger, far more populous, far more unified (especially if invaded), mountainous, and better equipped.

同样，时间也不站在侵略者这一边。诚然，美国最初可以压倒伊朗的军事力量，就像2003年春天对伊拉克军队所做的那样。然而值得指出的是，正如我们的将军们所注意到的，伊朗的领土面积是其三倍，人口远为众多，远为团结（尤其是在受到入侵时），地形多山，且装备更为精良。

Invading Iran would be a much greater challenge, especially as the Iranians can easily stir up trouble in neighboring Afghanistan and Iraq/Syria. The USA could find itself embroiled in a series of battlefields stretching from the shores of the Mediterranean all the way to the hinterlands of Pakistan. The last general to succeed in that large a stretch of West and South Asia was Alexander the Great, and his accomplishment did not survive his own death.

入侵伊朗将是一个更为艰巨的挑战，尤其是伊朗可以轻易在邻国阿富汗和伊拉克/叙利亚挑起事端。美国可能会发现自己深陷一系列战场，从地中海沿岸一直延伸到巴基斯坦腹地。历史上唯一成功跨越如此广阔的西亚和南亚地区的将军是亚历山大大帝，而他的成就并未在他死后得以延续。

The USA has created a military that, while technologically swamping all other forces, lacks the skills and patience for nation building or simply putting the pieces back together after blowing things up.

美国打造了一支在技术上压倒所有其他军队的军事力量，却缺乏国家建设或仅仅在炸毁一切后重新收拾残局的技能与耐心。

Iraq, once one of the most advanced and westernized nations in the Middle East, is today a fundamentalist tribal wasteland. Destabilizing Iran, the last functioning nation between Pakistan and Turkey, could have disastrous consequences for the global economy and the international order.

伊拉克，这个曾经是中东最先进、最西化的国家之一，如今却是一个原教旨主义部落横行的荒芜之地。而伊朗，作为巴基斯坦和土耳其之间最后一个正常运转的国家，其动荡可能对全球经济和国际秩序带来灾难性后果。

Look, even if you want to bring on the Rapture or hate all Muslims, does it truly strike you that leaving the Saudis as the last functioning power in the Middle East is going to advance the cause of freedom and justice and the American way of life?

听着，即使你想引发天启或是憎恨所有穆斯林，你真的认为让沙特成为中东最后一个有效运作的力量，就能推动自由、正义以及美国生活方式的进步吗？

At this point it is clear to everyone that the USA can bomb places, but not defeat entrenched local opposition over time. Our tactics failed in Vietnam and Iraq, and are failing in Afghanistan. There is no reason to think we’d win a drawn out struggle in Iran, and every reason to think we would see similar results as our last long conflicts, including the two ongoing wars on either side of Iran.

此刻所有人都清楚，美国能够轰炸某些地点，但无法长期击败根深蒂固的地方抵抗势力。我们的战术在越南和伊拉克已经失败，在阿富汗也正走向失败。没有理由认为我们能在伊朗赢得持久战，反而有充分理由相信我们会看到与之前长期冲突类似的结果，包括目前在伊朗两侧仍在进行的这两场战争。

Michael B
迈克尔·B

They aren’t. They’re confident that they can outlast the US. And they probably can.

他们并非如此。他们自信能够比美国坚持得更久。而且他们很可能确实可以。

Iran, for all it’s faults is a functioning state with a competent government and military. It’s people are united by a strong national identity and shared culture. And it has the resources to use and maintain modern weaponry.

尽管伊朗存在诸多问题，但它是一个运作正常的国家，拥有称职的政府和军队。其人民因强烈的民族认同感和共同文化而团结一致，并且拥有使用和维护现代化武器装备的资源。

There is no scenario in which Iran defeats the US. There is no scenario in which they invade us and conquer us. There isn’t even a scenario in which they nuke us.

伊朗在任何情况下都无法击败美国。他们不可能入侵并征服我们。甚至他们用核武器攻击我们的情况也不存在。

But the opposite is also true. The US can invade Iran, but it’s not going to be an easy fight. The Iranian army will stay unified. They will have the home field advantage. And the war with Iran will almost certainly be incredibly unpopular in the US. We don’t exactly have a good casus belli.

但反之亦然。美国可以入侵伊朗，但这不会是一场轻松的战斗。伊朗军队将保持团结一致。他们将拥有主场优势。而与伊朗的战争几乎肯定会在美国国内极其不得人心。我们确实没有一个充分的战争借口。

In the event that the US invades Iran the most likely outcome is that the war drags on for way too long. We get fed up with it. And we just leave. Which isn’t a good outcome for Iran, but it does mean that they “defeat” the US.

如果美国入侵伊朗，最可能的结果是战争会拖延过久。我们会对此感到厌倦，然后直接撤离。这对伊朗来说并非好结果，但这确实意味着他们“击败”了美国。

Mark Fergerson
马克·费格森

Why is Iran so confident it can defeat the U.S.?

伊朗为何如此自信能战胜美国？

It isn’t.
不是的。

To be specific, the Ayatollahs in charge are not confident.

具体来说，掌权的阿亚图拉们并不自信。

What you’re seeing is called “bravado”, or to be slightly more charitable, “saber rattling”.

你看到的这种情况被称为“虚张声势”，或者更宽容一点说，是“炫耀武力”。

The Ayatollahs are under greater pressure from their own citizens than from the U. S. and are doing their best to keep that secret, but they’ve failed.

阿亚图拉们面临来自本国公民的压力远大于来自美国的压力，他们正竭力掩盖这一事实，但未能成功。

The largest proportion of the civilian population very likely does not even consider open warfare between Iran and the U. S. to be a realistic possibility and I think they’re right. The Ayatollahs come off as fanatics but they’re clearly in it for the money and power, and war would break them financially and strip them of power.

绝大多数平民很可能甚至不认为伊朗和美国之间爆发公开战争是现实的可能性，我认为他们是对的。阿亚图拉们表面上看起来像狂热分子，但他们显然是为了金钱和权力，而战争会让他们在财政上破产并剥夺他们的权力。

Their sole threat that has any validity is that to disrupt oil tanker movements in the Strait of Hormuz, and that would work for about two hours. Then the U. S. Navy would demonstrate a repeat of the First and Second Barbary Wars, except this time Marines wouldn’t have to land.

他们唯一具有任何有效性的威胁是扰乱霍尔木兹海峡的油轮运输，而这只能维持大约两个小时。然后美国海军将重演第一次和第二次巴巴里战争，只不过这次海军陆战队无需登陆。

If the Ayatollahs tried to escalate using their missile batteries they’d quickly see those batteries vanish in loud puffs of smoke.

如果阿亚图拉们试图利用他们的导弹阵地进行升级，他们将很快看到这些阵地在响亮的烟雾中消失。

They don’t have much to follow those up with except their hinted use of terrorism on American soil. If that actually happened, their claims of innocence in supporting terrorism would be blown, and along with it their credibility with the European unx.

他们除了暗示可能在美国本土使用恐怖主义手段外，并没有太多后续行动。如果真的发生这种情况，他们声称支持恐怖主义是无辜的说法将被揭穿，并且他们在欧盟眼中的信誉也将随之破灭。

Worse, it would finally destroy their credibility as able negotiators with other word leaders in the eyes of their military commanders and citizens, who would overthrow them in favor of brief martial law followed by elections to set up something resembling a democratic republic that could actually do business with the rest of the world rather than continue trying to revive the Persian Empire.

更糟糕的是，这最终会破坏他们作为有能力与其他世界领导人谈判者的可信度——在他们的军事指挥官和公民眼中，这些军事指挥官和公民将推翻他们，转而支持短暂的军法管制，随后举行选举，以建立一个类似于民主共和国的体制，这个体制能够真正与世界其他国家进行交往，而不是继续试图复兴波斯帝国。

If they survived the overthrow they’d be exiled, their billions in various banks frozen, their friends evaporating like ice in the desert. They know this.

如果他们能在政权被推翻后幸存下来，他们也会被流放，他们在各银行的数十亿资产将被冻结，他们的朋友会像沙漠中的冰块一样蒸发殆尽。他们深知这一点。

So instead, they’re desperately seeking political allies to try to get the U. S. to remove its sanctions so they can sell oil to keep their economy going. There don’t seem to be a lot of those.

因此，他们正在拼命寻找政治盟友，试图让美国解除制裁，以便能够出售石油来维持经济运转。但这样的盟友似乎并不多。

Their only hope is to do something along the lines of what Kim did in North Korea- find a way to lose while saving face, to decide that the whole war thing is overrated and seek a better economic solution. of course Kim has the 'advantage' of South Korea with which N. K. has long-standing cultural and blood ties while the Ayatollahs don't have that option.

他们唯一的希望是效仿金正日在朝鲜的做法——找到一种既能保全颜面又能体面退场的方式，认识到战争并非上策，转而寻求更好的经济解决方案。当然，金正日拥有一个“优势”：朝鲜与韩国有着悠久的文化和血缘联系，而伊朗的宗教领袖们则没有这种选择。

Bruder Ab
阿布德兄弟

Iran has pushed the sponsors of Daesh to their ancestors borders. Israel is now picking the trash from its border and treating them in their hospitals.

伊朗已将达伊什的赞助者推回其祖先的边界。以色列现在正从边境清理垃圾，并在其医院中处理这些垃圾。

The 2 biggest sensitive countries: (Iraq, Syria) with the help of IRGC and friends achieved victories in just 4–5 years. That’s the biggest achievement.

两个最敏感的国家：（伊拉克、叙利亚）在伊斯兰革命卫队及其盟友的帮助下，仅用4-5年时间就取得了胜利。这是最重大的成就。

MKO supported and funded openly by USA along the western border was crushed into pieces. MKO now can be seen on the western puppet channels only.

美国在西部边境公开支持和资助的伊朗人民圣战者组织已被彻底粉碎。如今，该组织只能在西部傀儡频道上看到。

After the Iraq-Iran war, US tried to occupy Iran but failed miserably. All of its 5 Apache bombers were deserted (That incident is still in the mystery and doesn’t get any coverage).

在伊拉克-伊朗战争之后，美国试图占领伊朗，但惨遭失败。其所有5架阿帕奇轰炸机均被遗弃（该事件至今仍是个谜，且未获得任何报道）。

USA is more sane than it looks but the puppeteers are not. The hostage US is now in the hands of a stupid and so its future decisions.

美国比看起来要理智，但幕后操纵者并非如此。被挟持的美国如今掌握在愚蠢者手中，其未来决策也将如此。

War against Iran is just not a war, its a beginning of a fire that will be spread from Perian gulf to the Sub-continent, FarEast, Europe, ME and FarWest. I think War is imminent and the looser will again be called a looser!

对伊朗的战争不仅仅是一场战争，它是一团火焰的开端，这团火焰将从波斯湾蔓延到次大陆、远东、欧洲、中东和远西。我认为战争迫在眉睫，而失败者将再次被称作失败者！

Stefan Misic
斯特凡·米西奇

Simple answer, america did not win any war from Korea and Vietnam era up to today. They went to wars destroy countries, produce chaos and left home with tail between their legs…. Example is Afghanistan, after 19 years they are slowly puling out and Taliban will take over the country once again. Nothing changes in Iraq either except new even more corrupted government.

简单回答，美国从朝鲜战争和越南战争时期到今天，没有赢得任何一场战争。他们发动战争摧毁国家，制造混乱，然后夹着尾巴灰溜溜地回家……阿富汗就是个例子，经过19年，他们正在慢慢撤出，而塔利班将再次接管这个国家。伊拉克也没有任何改变，除了换了一个更加腐败的新政府。

John Jafar
约翰·贾法尔

Iran is not confident, but it's just propaganda of war, Iran knows that it is unable to defeat the United States, but it also knows that the United States does not want to engage in a war that is very troublesome, the United States is able to topple the Iranian regime, but it will stuck into a long guerrilla war in a big country with a large population

伊朗并不自信，但这只是战争的宣传。伊朗知道自己无法击败美国，但也清楚美国不愿卷入一场非常麻烦的战争。美国有能力推翻伊朗政权，但将陷入一个幅员辽阔、人口众多的大国长期游击战中。

Also, the American people are not enthusiastic about war with Iran, especially after the failure of the terrible strategy of the American administration in Iraq and Afghanistan

此外，美国人民对与伊朗开战并不热衷，尤其是在美国政府在伊拉克和阿富汗的可怕战略失败之后。

No one wants a long, ridiculous war in which thousands of Americans are killed, ending with an unsatisfactory outcome as usual and with enormous economic losses.

没有人希望看到一场漫长而荒谬的战争，导致成千上万的美国人丧生，最终像往常一样以不尽人意的结果收场，并造成巨大的经济损失。

Ryan
瑞安

The ruling regime must pretend it has the ability to defeat the Americans if it wishes to hold power even though there is little to no chance it could survive a invasion. In fact it’s very likely the region would become the new Iraq boondoggle. But at the end of the day the average American wouldn’t know or even care.

执政政权必须假装有能力击败美国人才能维持权力，尽管它在入侵中幸存的机会微乎其微。实际上，该地区很可能成为新的伊拉克泥潭。但归根结底，普通美国人不会知道，甚至不会在意。

Debra Downing
黛布拉·唐宁

Defeat how? In a non-proxy war? No, they are not confident they can defeat the U.S. in a conventional war. It would be absurd for them to think that they can.

如何击败？通过非代理人战争吗？不，他们并不自信能在常规战争中击败美国。如果他们那样想，那将是荒谬的。

Defeat the U.S. for control and influence of the Middle East? They are confident about that because they have already been doing so. The U.S. tries to take control of the Middle East by force, invading and ruining the countries. But it all ends up a failure and we always end up with egg on our face like a typical bully.

打败美国以控制并影响中东？他们对此充满信心，因为他们已经在这样做了。美国试图通过武力控制中东，入侵并摧毁这些国家。但这一切最终都以失败告终，而我们总是像典型的恶霸一样颜面尽失。

Oguzhan Sengul
奥古兹汗·森居尔

They are not confident. They just know that USA won’t be able to sustain a war in Persian Gulf. It will just hurt all the countries around the world. BTW although USA has immense superiority in air force. That bombers of the US are not using candies to destroy their targets. Their bombs are just too expensive which is the reason why all wars of USA costs trillions of usd.

他们并不自信。他们只是知道美国无法维持波斯湾的战争。这只会伤害全世界所有国家。顺便说一句，尽管美国在空军方面拥有巨大优势。但美国的轰炸机可不是用糖果来摧毁目标的。他们的炸弹实在太昂贵了，这就是为什么美国所有战争都要花费数万亿美元的原因。

Pronoy Gomes
普罗诺伊·戈梅斯

I'm not an expert. But I'll answer what I think. Iran thinks or maybe it's true that they're going to have backup from some strong countries. Maybe that's why they think that. But they should also know that America can also have backup from strong countries. Or maybe they don't even need any. I know its an amature ans.

我不是专家，但我会回答我的想法。伊朗认为，或者可能确实如此，他们将得到一些强大国家的支持。也许这就是他们的想法。但他们也应该知道，美国同样可以得到强大国家的支持，或者可能根本不需要任何支持。我知道这是一个业余的回答。

Stephen King
斯蒂芬·金

I really don't think anyone can authoritatively say what “Iran” is “so confident in, as though the modern seat of ancient Persia were monolithic in its beliefs. What I can't figure out is why so many Americans seem to be itching for what promises to be a very costly war no matter who wins.

我真的不认为有人能权威地说清楚“伊朗”到底“对什么如此自信”，仿佛现代的古波斯宝座在信仰上是铁板一块。我无法理解的是，为什么这么多美国人似乎都渴望着这场无论谁赢都将代价惨重的战争。

Yoni Ariel
约尼·阿里埃勒

Because they had the luck to come up against weak appeasing presidents. After the US embassy was taken by Khomeini’s storm-troopers and diplomats imprisoned, Carter should have issued a clear ultimatum, if they are not freed within 72 hours, the Us will declare war on Iran. Obama’s policy was to empower Iran, naively thinking the Middle East’s biggest problem could be the solution if allowed to become the regional hegemon. I am no fan of Trump, who I believe is a treasonous president who colluded with a foreign hostile power to get elected, but regarding Iran he is right. As they say, even a broken watch tells the correct time twice a day. Israel can defeat Iran by itself, if needs be.

因为他们运气好，碰上了软弱、绥靖的总统们。在霍梅尼的突击队占领美国大使馆并囚禁外交官后，卡特本应发出明确最后通牒：若72小时内不释放人员，美国将对伊朗宣战。奥巴马的政策是扶持伊朗，天真地认为如果让中东最大的问题（指伊朗）成为地区霸主，它反而能成为解决方案。我并非特朗普的拥趸，我认为他是一位叛国的总统，曾与敌对外国势力勾结以赢得选举，但在伊朗问题上他是对的。正如俗语所说，即便是坏掉的钟一天也能准点两次。如有必要，以色列单凭自身就能击败伊朗。

Sassan Afrasiabi
萨桑·阿夫拉西亚比

Because the US is a weak nation? Yes, that’s it. Remember that Iran has more history than the US and more allies than you know. In fact, allies that you might think are you allies but they support Iran or will support Iran in the long run.

因为美国是个弱国吗？是的，正是如此。请记住，伊朗的历史比美国更悠久，其盟友数量也远超你的认知。事实上，有些你认为是自己盟友的国家，其实支持伊朗，或者从长远来看终将支持伊朗。

Elliot Alderson
埃利奥特·阿尔德森

Because the US is more divided than ever and cannot afford an extremely expensive war with Iran. US troops lack the morale and motive to enter another war. They have been fighting for 3 decades nonstop. Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Persian Gulf etc. They are humans, not war machines. They need to go back home to their families and have some fun. Also, the US cannot focus the entire attention of their army from all over the world to Iran. They will lose their allies to China and Russia. They cannot base their military installations on any neighboring soil of Iran without that country being the target of Iran’s missile attacks. So that country will not allow the US to enter a war with Iran.

因为美国比以往任何时候都更加分裂，无法承担与伊朗进行一场极其昂贵的战争。美军士气低落，缺乏参与另一场战争的动机。他们已经连续作战了三十年，从阿富汗、伊拉克、叙利亚到波斯湾等地。他们是人，不是战争机器。他们需要回家与家人团聚，享受一些生活的乐趣。此外，美国无法将全球各地军队的全部注意力集中到伊朗。那样做会导致他们失去盟友，转而投向中国和俄罗斯的怀抱。美国无法在伊朗的任何邻国领土上建立军事基地，因为那样做会使该国成为伊朗导弹攻击的目标。因此，这些国家不会允许美国与伊朗开战。

Roberto Eduardo
罗伯托·爱德华多

Iran is not confident it can defeat the US military but it knows it can throw out any US occupation force after some time. If even in Afghanistan they are on the verge to get the US out of the nation why could Iran do not do the same ?

伊朗并不确信能够击败美国军队，但它知道经过一段时间后能够驱逐任何美国占领军。如果说即使在阿富汗，美国也濒临被赶出该国，那么伊朗为何不能做到同样的事呢？

Elliot Alderson
埃利奥特·奥尔德森

Because the US is more divided than ever and cannot afford an extremely expensive war with Iran. US troops lack the morale and motive to enter another war. They have been fighting for 3 decades nonstop. Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Persian Gulf etc. They are humans, not war machines. They need to go back home to their families and have some fun. Also, the US cannot focus the entire attention of their army from all over the world to Iran. They will lose their allies to China and Russia. They cannot base their military installations on any neighboring soil of Iran without that country being the target of Iran’s missile attacks. So that country will not allow the US to enter a war with Iran.

因为美国比以往任何时候都更加分裂，无法承受与伊朗进行一场极其昂贵的战争。美军缺乏进入另一场战争的士气和动机。他们已经不间断地战斗了三十年——阿富汗、伊拉克、叙利亚、波斯湾等地。他们是人，不是战争机器。他们需要回到家人身边，享受一些生活乐趣。此外，美国无法将其遍布全球的军队的全部注意力集中到伊朗。那样做会使他们失去盟友，让中国和俄罗斯得利。他们无法在伊朗的任何邻国领土上建立军事设施而不使该国成为伊朗导弹袭击的目标。因此，这些国家不会允许美国与伊朗开战。

Adam Edwards
亚当·爱德华兹

It is not. They are acting. They are terrified, but want us to live in fear of them so so badly. But I'm glad, in the spirit of Churchill that we are talking about cutting out a cancer before it grows. Churchill wanted to stop Hitler before he could rebuild. Iran will never terrorize the world like Hitler and the USSR.

不，他们是在表演。他们内心充满恐惧，却极度渴望我们生活在他们的恐惧之下。但令我欣慰的是，我们正以丘吉尔的精神，讨论在癌细胞扩散前将其切除。丘吉尔希望在希特勒重整军备前阻止他。伊朗永远不会像希特勒和苏联那样让世界笼罩在恐怖之中。

I am a friend with a man who fought in both Gulf wars for Iraq. It is a sad story, but I do not want to see people like him killed. The sooner we deal with Iran, the better. The saddest part is, for some of the elders there who understand, supporting and being part of the army in Iran is a way to stay safe. THE WHOLE THING IS SAD, BUT IT SHOULD BE DEALT WITH SOONER THAN LATE. Churchill wrote that WW2 never had to happen and Germany had a bright future.

我有一位朋友，他曾为伊拉克参加过两次海湾战争。这是一个悲伤的故事，但我不愿看到像他这样的人丧命。我们越早处理伊朗问题越好。最可悲的是，对于那里一些明白事理的长者来说，支持并加入伊朗军队是一种自保的方式。整件事都很可悲，但应该尽早解决。丘吉尔曾写道，二战本不必发生，德国原本拥有光明的未来。

Jada Wood
贾达·伍德

Defeat in what way? Militarily in power or in waiting it out? Also what makes you think they are confident? Smack talking is a sign of posturing more than an actual belief they can win. However Iran certainly wont be tucking their tails between their legs and in fact would give the US a right bloody nose if war broke out between our countries. But in the end, provided the US has the stomach to keep up with the conflict, would eventually win out. However AGAIN there would be a power vacuum and just make the region even more unstable than it already is. That and other players would be involved like Russia.

以何种方式失败？是军事力量上的失败，还是持久战中的失败？另外，你凭什么认为他们自信满满？夸夸其谈更多是一种姿态，而非他们真的相信自己能赢。不过，伊朗当然不会夹着尾巴逃跑，事实上，如果两国之间爆发战争，伊朗确实会给美国一个狠狠的教训。但最终，只要美国有决心将冲突持续下去，终究会获胜。然而，这又会造成权力真空，让该地区比现在更加动荡。此外，还会有其他参与者卷入，比如俄罗斯。

The main question is why should there be a conflict with the US and Iran? Because Iran does not bow down to the US? Not good enough. Many countries tell us to go to hell all the time. Oh well. Too bad. Get over it.

主要问题在于，为何美国与伊朗之间会存在冲突？是因为伊朗不向美国低头吗？这理由不够充分。许多国家时常对我们表示不屑一顾。唉，好吧，真遗憾。接受现实吧。

Because it may or may not be developing nuclear weapons? Other countries already have nukes, so that is not a good enough answer either.

因为伊朗可能正在发展核武器，也可能没有？其他国家已经拥有核武器，所以这个理由也不够充分。

Does having oil and causing troubles with our neighbors who are even worse then them a good enough reason? That is about the only real reason anyone could justify. And yet in just saying our allies are worse, should mean we should not go to war with Iran for that reason, but ditch our allies instead or at the very least find common ground, but not aid and abide criminals.

拥有石油并给我们那些甚至比他们更糟糕的邻居制造麻烦，这算是一个足够好的理由吗？这大概是唯一能让人真正信服的理由了。然而，仅仅说我们的盟友更糟糕，就应该意味着我们不应该因此与伊朗开战，而是应该抛弃我们的盟友，或者至少找到共同点，而不是援助和纵容罪犯。

John Duran
约翰·杜兰

It’s just clerical rhetoric. In a conventional war there’s no contest. What Iran has won largely has to do with their solidarity with other Shiites in the region from Afghanistan and Pakistan in the east to Iraq, Syria and Lebanon as well as the Persian Gulf. This influence is in part due to a number of pressures from adversaries and of course the historic ill-treatment of Shiites in Iraq under Saddam and the Taliban’s persecution in Afghanistan. Iran has simply taken advantage. In terms of influence, one could argue Iran has expanded, but there is a ceiling and they have likely reached it. Beyond the Shiite areas they are not going to exert much influence.

这只是文书修辞罢了。在常规战争中，根本构不成较量。伊朗的成就主要源于他们与地区内其他什叶派力量的团结，这些力量东起阿富汗和巴基斯坦，西至伊拉克、叙利亚和黎巴嫩，乃至波斯湾地区。这种影响力的部分原因在于来自对手的多重压力，当然也包括历史上萨达姆统治下伊拉克什叶派遭受的虐待，以及塔利班在阿富汗的迫害。伊朗不过是抓住了机会。就影响力而言，可以说伊朗有所扩张，但存在上限，而且他们很可能已经触及这个上限了。在什叶派区域之外，他们不会施加太大影响力。