分析：伊朗战争演变成一场看谁更能承受痛苦的较量
Analysis: Iran war becomes a contest of who can take the most pain
译文简介
尽管[对伊战争]错综复杂且[影响全球]，但归根结底只剩下一个问题：谁能把这种痛苦承受得最久？
正文翻译
Analysis: Iran war becomes a contest of who can take the most pain
分析：伊朗战争演变成一场看谁更能承受痛苦的较量
分析：伊朗战争演变成一场看谁更能承受痛苦的较量
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尽管[对伊战争]错综复杂且[影响全球]，但归根结底只剩下一个问题：谁能把这种痛苦承受得最久？
A surge in oil prices points to what may be Iran’s most effective weapon and the United States’ biggest vulnerability in continuing the campaign:[Damaging the world economy](https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-trump-economy-oil-gas-66806b02a000235f1979e591279b6554). A sharp rise in gas prices has [rattled consumers](https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-gas-prices-trump-voters-648000c2a4ffe03f8d647b8e7371bb13) and financial markets, and international travel and shipping have been severely disrupted.
油价飙升凸显了伊朗可能拥有的最有效武器，以及美国在继续这场军事行动中最大的软肋：[破坏世界经济]。汽油价格的暴涨已经[令消费者]和金融市场感到恐慌，国际旅行和航运也受到了严重干扰。
U.S. President Donald Trump appears aware of the danger. As oil jumped to nearly $120 a barrel on Monday, the highest since 2022, he suggested [the war would be “short-term.”](https://apnews.com/article/iran-israel-us-march-9-2026-b2aa51ef51d4b57103ffee0c95bc2ff7) That helped reassure markets and the price eased to around $90 — even as Trump, nearly in the same breath, vowed to keep up the war and the punishment on Iran.
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普似乎意识到了这一危险。随着周一油价飙升至近120美元/桶（创2022年以来新高），他暗示[这场战争将是“短期的”]。这起到了安抚市场的作用，油价回落至90美元左右——尽管特朗普几乎同时又誓言要继续对伊朗进行打击和惩罚。
On the other side, Iran has to endure a near-constant stream of American and Israeli airstrikes it can’t defend against. So far, the Islamic Republic has been able to [keep its leadership](https://apnews.com/video/mojtaba-khamenei-chosen-to-succeed-his-father-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-ap-explains-49490d73479049848a5bd8af75ba9fd5) and military cohesive and in control. The Iranian public, which already rose up against its theocracy in nationwide protests in January, still[boils in anger](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-memorials-chehelom-71e5db503a287126a2d31cb32a2809eb) but have stayed home as they try to survive the heavy bombardment. Security forces have been on the street every day to ensure no anti-government demonstrations form.
另一方面，伊朗必须忍受美国和以色列几乎连绵不绝且无法防御的空袭。到目前为止，这个伊斯兰共和国依然能够[保持其领导层]以及军队的凝聚力和控制力。今年一月曾举行全国性抗议反对神权统治的伊朗公众，依然[满腔怒火]，但为了在猛烈的轰炸中求生，他们选择了留在家里。安全部队每天都在街头巡逻，以确保不会发生反政府示威。
The pressure is on U.S. allies as well. Gulf Arab states, while still not combatants in the war, face seemingly unending and occasionally fatal Iranian fire targeting oil fields, cities and critical water works. And Israel, while boasting of inflicting heavy damage on Iran’s missile program and other military targets, continues to be targeted by increasingly sophisticated Iranian missiles that send a buckshot-like bouquet of high explosives raining down on its cities. Frequent air-raid sirens have disrupted daily life, closed schools and workplaces and created a tense atmosphere across the region.
美国的盟友同样承受着压力。海湾阿拉伯国家虽然尚未成为参战国，但也面临着伊朗对油田、城市和关键水利设施似乎无休无止且偶尔致命的火力打击。而以色列在吹嘘对伊朗导弹项目及其他军事目标造成重创的同时，也继续遭到伊朗日益先进的导弹袭击，这些导弹像霰弹一样将高爆炸药倾泻在其城市上空。频繁的防空警报扰乱了日常生活，导致学校停课、企业停工，整个地区笼罩在紧张的气氛中。
##See also:
* [Iran sends millions of oil barrels to China through Strait of Hormuz even as war chokes the waterway](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/iran-ships-oil-China-strait-hormuz-closure-.html) (CNBC)
*[How Iran has used the strait of Hormuz to throttle oil and gas – a visual guide](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/11/how-iran-has-used-the-strait-of-hormuz-to-throttle-oil-and-gas-a-visual-guide) (Guardian)
* [What are the challenges in securing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz?](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/what-are-challenges-securing-shipping-through-strait-hormuz-2026-03-10/)
*[Trump Directs War With the Markets Top of Mind · President Trump again demonstrated his desire to keep the stock markets aloft when he suggested U.S. attacks on Iran could end soon.](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/11/business/economy/trump-iran-markets-economy.html) (New York Times)
*[Why Israel's 'Apocalyptic' Strike on Iran's Fuel Depots Could End Trump's War · Surging oil prices from the war in Iran are accelerating the shift to green energy while also boosting oil companies' profits. As Israel and Jordan face a regional natural gas crisis, economic pressure on American consumers could force Trump to end the war](https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/iran/2026-03-10/ty-article/.premium/why-israels-apocalyptic-strike-on-irans-fuel-depots-could-end-trumps-war/0000019c-d7b0-daac-adbd-dfb25d6d0000) (Haaretz)
##延伸阅读：
*[即使战争扼杀了航道，伊朗仍通过霍尔木兹海峡向中国输送数百万桶石油](CNBC)
*[图解：伊朗如何利用霍尔木兹海峡扼住油气命脉](卫报)
*[确保霍尔木兹海峡航运安全面临哪些挑战？]*[特朗普在主导战争时依然心系市场 · 特朗普总统暗示美国对伊袭击可能很快结束，再次表明了他维持股市高位的愿望。]（纽约时报）
*[为什么以色列对伊朗燃料库的“末日式”打击可能终结特朗普的战争 · 伊朗战争引发的油价飙升正在加速向绿色能源的转型，同时推高了石油公司的利润。随着以色列和约旦面临地区天然气危机，美国消费者承受的经济压力可能会迫使特朗普结束战争。]（国土报）
评论内容：
Flaksim
likes: 1
It's not a war, it's a bombing campaign, which is why the US cannot win this, at all. We have plenty of examples, from world war 2 to today, that show that bombing campaigns alone will NOT win a war. It has never been successful at defeating any party by itself.
这不是一场战争，而是一场轰炸行动，这就是为什么美国根本无法赢得胜利的原因。从二战到今天，我们有大量例子表明，单靠轰炸行动是赢不了战争的。它从来没有凭一己之力成功击败过任何一方。
Apprehensive_Emu9240
likes: 1
This is going to be so predictable. Trump will one day cease this war and then act as if he has won when he hasn't. What I wonder however is how well Iran is going to be able to rebuild. They already had trouble rebuilding/repairing the last time Israel struck them.
这太好预测了。特朗普有一天会停止这场战争，然后明明没赢却装作自己赢了一样。不过我好奇的是伊朗能恢复到什么程度。上次以色列打击他们时，他们在重建和修复方面就已经很吃力了。
Overton_Glazier
likes: 1
Iran isn't going to stop, even if the US does. They have zero incentive to. They were literally bombed mid-negotiation.
Only way is if a third party mediator comes in an offers proper security guarantees, and that would be China.
即使美国停火，伊朗也不会停。他们完全没有理由这么做。他们可是在谈判中途被炸的。
唯一的出路是有一个第三方调停者介入并提供适当的安全保障，而那个国家将会是中国。
lobonmc
likes: 1
Can China give much guarantees?
中国能提供多少保障呢？
xXx_edgykid_xXx
likes: 1
If China truly does put boots on the ground, I'd say that will stop the US, neither of them want a war with the other
如果中国真的派地面部队介入，我觉得那就能阻止美国，他们俩谁都不想和对方开战。
Ambitious-Poet4992
likes: 1
I don’t know man. Would China be willing to risk one anyway? The USA is better positioned to fight China than the opposite. China has been non confrontational all the time and has never given security guarantees except to nk which is directly at its border
我不知道，哥们。中国真的愿意冒这个险吗？美国在对抗中国方面占据更有利的位置，而不是反过来。中国一直都奉行非对抗性政策，除了对其直接接壤的朝鲜之外，从未提供过安全保障。
NearABE
likes: 1
China has a billion population. They can afford put several hundred troops in fancy uniforms. They do not need the ability to fight a war in Persia.
中国有十亿人口。他们完全负担得起派几百个穿着华丽制服的士兵过去。他们不需要具备在波斯打一场战争的能力。
InTheNameOfScheddi
likes: 1
Is this comment bait?
>A billion population
>Several hundred
>Persia
LMao what
这条评论是钓鱼的吗？
“十亿人口”
“几百个”
“波斯”
笑死我了，什么鬼
Mando177
likes: 1
They could also pull a Cuba in the Cold War and station some nuclear weapons there. A dozen or so would more than deter any invasion force
他们也可以效仿冷战时期的古巴，在那里部署一些核武器。十几个就足以威慑任何入侵部队了。
Otto_Von_Waffle
likes: 1
Or the US fucks right off of the middle east and ease sanctions, basically what Iran could demand and maybe get if the US is in too much pain on an economic level. I don't exactly see it happening soon, but the US might be forced to if the gulf states start telling to the US to stop the madness or get their bases kicked out anyway.
或者美国干脆滚出中东并放松制裁，这基本上是伊朗可以提出的要求，如果美国在经济层面上太痛苦的话，说不定能得逞。我不认为这会很快发生，但如果海湾国家开始要求美国停止这种疯狂举动，否则就把美国的基地踢出去，美国可能就会被迫这么做。
Overton_Glazier
likes: 1
But that doesn't provide any security from Israel who might be right back afterwards.
但这并不能防止以色列之后卷土重来，无法提供任何安全保障。
Otto_Von_Waffle
likes: 1
Without the US security apparatus in the region Israel is much more evenly matched by Iran, sure they can probably bomb Iran, but Iran can hammer Israel with missiles and drones. Without all the US radars in the region, AA systems, etc Iran can quickly do a lot of damage to Israel, and I'm pretty sure that if Iran 'win' this one, they will have nuclear weapons in short order. It will make the situation similar to india Pakistan, two countries that hate each other, but MAD will force them to behave.
如果没有美国在该地区的安全设施，以色列和伊朗的实力就更加势均力敌了。当然，他们可能可以轰炸伊朗，但伊朗也能用导弹和无人机重创以色列。如果没有美国在该地区的所有雷达、防空系统等，伊朗可以迅速对以色列造成巨大破坏。
而且我敢肯定，如果伊朗“赢了”这一局，他们很快就会拥有核武器。这会让局势变得像印度和巴基斯坦一样，两个互相对立的国家，但“相互保证毁灭”（MAD）原则会迫使他们保持克制。
mostard_seed
likes: 1
People seem to really underestimate how much US bases and allies contribute to interception right now. Kuwaiti, Iraqi, and Jordanian bases, along with US warships in the Mediterranean all contribute no, and things will be different without them.
人们似乎真的低估了目前美国基地及其盟友在拦截方面做出的贡献。科威特、伊拉克和约旦的基地，以及美国在地中海的军舰都出了力，如果没有它们，情况将截然不同。
Otto_Von_Waffle
likes: 1
A good exemple of that is with the current degraded radar coverage in the region Israel missle alarms are ringing much later then in the 12 days war. Sometimes leaving 1-2min for people to scramble to their shelters instead of 10-12min.
The US fucking right off doesn't mean that the gulf states wouldn't tip off Israel about Iranian missles being fired, but I don't think the gulf states would join any operations against Iran with Israel.
一个很好的例子是，由于目前该地区雷达覆盖范围下降，以色列导弹警报拉响的时间比12天战争时晚得多。有时只给人们留出1-2分钟的时间冲向避难所，而不是10-12分钟。
美国滚蛋并不意味着海湾国家不会向以色列提供伊朗发射导弹的情报，但我认为海湾国家不会与以色列一起参与任何针对伊朗的军事行动。
Advanced-Net-8119
likes: 1
I doubt China has the power protection do protect Iran
我怀疑中国是否有足够的力量投射来保护伊朗。
Overton_Glazier
likes: 1
They probably have 100x the ballistic missiles Iran has. And they have nuclear weapons.
And they have missiles that can actually take out naval assets, unlike Iran.
The idea is to provide Iran with the kind of security that means Israel don't just try to fuck them again in a year. If China can't provide that protection, then I don't see this ending anytime soon.
他们的弹道导弹数量可能是伊朗的100倍。而且他们有核武器。
与伊朗不同的是，他们还拥有能够切实摧毁海军资产的导弹。
其目的是为伊朗提供一种安全保障，让以色列不敢在一年内再次试图搞他们。如果中国不能提供这种保护，那我认为这件事不会很快结束。
Advanced-Net-8119
likes: 1
Yeah, but if they did'nt before i doubt they will after all this is over. They had plenty of time to supply Iran with weapons after the 12 day war, but it seems that they have elected not to.
是的，但如果他们以前没这么做过，我怀疑在这切结束后他们会这么做。在12天战争之后，他们有充足的时间向伊朗提供武器，但似乎他们选择了不这样做。
MayBeAGayBee
likes: 1
For decades Chinese foreign policy has been based primarily on their belief that global military overextension was the primary factor in the collapse of the USSR. It’s possible that the calculus could change if they come to view this as a truly existential conflict for US imperialism. They’ve already provided way more logistical aid to Iran than they ever have before. Compare their current involvement with Iran to their near total lack of involvement with Venezuela. I’m not saying 100% that the Chinese will put balls to the wall backing Iran, but I think it’s a mistake to assume that their history of passivity necessarily means that they will always be passive.
几十年来，中国的外交政策主要基于一种信念：全球军事过度扩张是苏联解体的主要因素。如果他们开始将此视为美帝国主义真正的生死存亡之战，他们的算盘可能会发生改变。他们现在向伊朗提供的后勤援助已经比以往任何时候都多得多。
对比一下他们目前对伊朗的介入，以及他们对委内瑞拉几乎完全不介入的态度。我不是说中国百分百会孤注一掷地支持伊朗，但我认为，仅仅因为他们有过被动的历史，就断定他们会永远被动，这绝对是一个错误。
Virtual-Pension-991
likes: 1
At the very least, I do not think China will directly engage for as long as no ground invasion happens.
Even then, they might move to only protect their investments from potential harm coming in all directions.
To the right of Iran is Afghanistan, which I highly assume will join the fight if the US did send boots.
Alternatively, China will supply interested Afghani who wish to fight the US.
Edit: But I also understand that some Afghani would prefer not having a foreign force at all, so wow. Complicated stuff.
至少，我认为只要不发生地面入侵，中国就不会直接参战。
就算发生了，他们也可能只采取行动保护自己的投资免受来自四面八方的潜在伤害。
伊朗的右边是阿富汗，我高度怀疑如果美国真的派地面部队，阿富汗也会加入战斗。
或者，中国会向那些有意愿与美国作战的阿富汗人提供补给。
编辑：但我也明白有些阿富汗人根本不希望有外国军队介入，所以，哇喔。真是错综复杂。
NearABE
likes: 1
Venezuela is not in Asia. This will be a significant difference to the Chinese outlook on things.
委内瑞拉不在亚洲。这将使中国看待事物的方式产生重大差异。
studio_bob
likes: 1
China is building a blue water navy specifically to protect trade routes into the middle east where they are Iran's biggest trade partner by far. They have zero interest in letting Iran lose this war if they can prevent it.
中国正在建设一支蓝水海军，专门为了保护通往中东的贸易路线，目前他们是伊朗最大的贸易伙伴。如果能阻止的话，他们绝对不想看到伊朗输掉这场战争。
Advanced-Net-8119
likes: 1
the USSR spent 10-15 percent of gdp on defense in the late 80s, which i think is worth considering
苏联在80年代末将GDP的10-15%用于国防，我认为这很值得参考。
Magjee
likes: 1
They were in Afghanistan at the time too
他们当时也深陷阿富汗战争。
Overton_Glazier
likes: 1
Well that was before this shitshow. Before the straight was shut down. That's an entirely different world compared to last year.
好吧，那是在这场闹剧发生之前。在海峡被封锁之前。与去年相比，这已经是一个完全不同的世界了。
22stanmanplanjam11
likes: 1
Why would China do that now and not to start? Nothing changed. Iran is just in a substantially worse position to effectively use any equipment than they would have been two weeks ago. Their command, control, and communications structure is a thing of the past and many of their launchers have been destroyed.
为什么中国现在才这么做而不是一开始就做？什么都没变。相比两周前，伊朗在有效使用任何设备方面的处境都要糟糕得多。他们的指挥、控制和通信结构已成历史，而且许多发射装置都已被摧毁。
Overton_Glazier
likes: 1
Because the global oil supply wasn't constrained like it is now. Holy shit, how are you not getting the difference?
因为当时的全球石油供应并没有像现在这样受限。我的天，你怎么连这区别都看不出来？
22stanmanplanjam11
likes: 1
Iran's been threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz for decades, it was a given that they would if the US started bombing. Your assertion is reliant on the Chinese government not having any foresight at all.
几十年来，伊朗一直威胁要封锁霍尔木兹海峡，如果美国开始轰炸，他们肯定会这么做，这是毋庸置疑的。你的断言完全是建立在中国政府毫无远见的前提下。
Overton_Glazier
likes: 1
>Iran's been threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz for decades
Lol, no, they have always threatened to do it if attacked.
If... you understand what that means, right?
“几十年来伊朗一直威胁要封锁霍尔木兹海峡”
哈哈，并不是，他们一直威胁的是如果受到攻击就会这么做。
如果……你明白这意味着什么，对吧？
22stanmanplanjam11
likes: 1
Did you think the US just moved all those naval assets to the Middle East for fun? They were there to attack. It was telegraphed to redditors, so China would have known too.
你以为美国把那些海军资产调到中东只是为了好玩吗？他们本来就是去攻击的。连 Reddit 用户都能看出来，中国自然也会知道。
Overton_Glazier
likes: 1
Oh you're right, China should have been able to move a bunch of shipments to Iran in that 2 week period. What is this nonsense?
哦你说得对，中国本该在那两周内把一大批货物运到伊朗。这是什么无稽之谈？
22stanmanplanjam11
likes: 1
Who said anything about a bunch? They could have sent *something*. The US bombed Iran in Spring of 2025 too, and the buildup for this war started late January this year. If the Chinese intended to use Iran as a proxy to wage war against the US, they would have.
谁说要运一大批了？他们本可以送*一些*东西的。美国在2025年春天也轰炸过伊朗，而这场战争的集结始于今年1月下旬。如果中国打算利用伊朗作为代理人向美国发动战争，他们早就这么做了。
machado34
likes: 1
They certainly have the capability, but having willingness is another story. If you offer security guarantees you better not be bluffing.
China has enough firepower to level Israel in an afternoon, and both sides know it. And with Israel having ICBMs capable of reaching China, that suddenly becomes a VERY dangerous calculation
他们当然有这个能力，但有没有意愿就是另一回事了。如果你提供安全保障，最好不是在虚张声势。
中国有足够的火力在一个下午夷平以色列，双方都心知肚明。但由于以色列拥有射程可达中国的洲际弹道导弹，这突然就成了一个极其危险的权衡。
Ambitious-Poet4992
likes: 1
Sure they can level Israel but will that protect Iran against American and Israel attacks tho? Israel has ballastif missiles of its own and nukes so I don’t think China or Iran would go for it’s immediate destruction if Israel will invoke the Samson option
当然他们可以夷平以色列，但这能保护伊朗免受美国和以色列的袭击吗？以色列拥有自己的弹道导弹和核武器，所以如果以色列要动用“参孙选项”（同归于尽），我不认为中国或伊朗会寻求立刻将其毁灭。
Advanced-Net-8119
likes: 1
I dont mean ICBMs thats not power projection, i mean the capabilty to maintain a significant force in the region like we can.
我说的不是洲际弹道导弹，那不叫力量投射，我指的是像我们一样在该地区维持一支重要军队的能力。
OrangutanKiwi19
likes: 1
I think it has less to do with whether or not they can and more to do with how much they care enough to do so.
我认为这与他们能不能做到关系不大，更多在于他们是否足够在乎并愿意这么做。
Advanced-Net-8119
likes: 1
If they care enough to do so, then they still cant
就算他们真的在乎，他们依然做不到。
PhoenixKingMalekith
likes: 1
They have the incentive of having an economy and not starving to death
Blocking international shipping is great and all, less so when you are affected too
Especially when China is one of the biggest victim of the oil blockade
他们的动机是为了发展经济和不被饿死。
阻断国际航运听起来很爽，但如果你自己也受到了影响，那就不怎么好了。
特别是当中国是石油封锁的最大受害者之一时。
CoconutGoSkrrt
likes: 1
Iran was already under brutal and vile sanctions beforehand. I’d imagine they’d be reluctant to just go back to the status quo of a month ago by this point.
伊朗之前就已经遭受了残酷且恶劣的制裁。我想到了这个地步，他们应该不愿轻易回到一个月前的状态了。
PhoenixKingMalekith
likes: 1
I mean, they can continue but they will be among the first to face existential crisis
我的意思是，他们可以继续耗下去，但他们将是最先面临生存危机的。
Jurodan
likes: 1
And they aren't right now?
难道他们现在不是这样吗？
PhoenixKingMalekith
likes: 1
Not realy no
The bombings are mostly limited to military sites or assets so most people will survive fine
It would be existential if the US destroyed the dams, power plants, logistical hubs and other basic services, forcing the population to litteraly thirst to death
其实并没有。
轰炸主要局限于军事基地或资产，所以大多数人都能好好活下来。
如果美国摧毁大坝、发电厂、物流枢纽和其他基本服务，迫使老百姓硬生生渴死，那才是关乎生死存亡的。
BufferUnderpants
likes: 1
They bombed a desalination plant and a massive fuel depot that exposed everybody in the capital to oil fumes.
Looks pretty existential to me.
他们轰炸了一家海水淡化厂和一个大型燃料库，导致首都所有人都暴露在油烟之中。
在我看来这已经非常关乎生死存亡了。
EH1987
likes: 1
Israel literally started poisoning the water supply for **tens of millions of people**. This is going to be a massive ecological disaster and it's not the first time Israel has engaged in ecocide to make life unsustainable for civilians. That is the fucking definition of an existential threat.
以色列可是实打实地开始毒害**数千万人**的供水系统了。这将是一场巨大的生态灾难，而且这也不是以色列第一次实施生态灭绝以让平民无法生存。这就是他妈的生存威胁的标准定义。
SpontaneousFlame
likes: 1
Even worse, the longer this goes on the more the Iranian government’s support will increase. People who mass murder school children don’t care about their freedom.
更糟的是，这种情况持续越久，对伊朗政府的支持就越高。那些大规模屠杀学童的人，根本不在乎别人的自由。
Haze_Yourself
likes: 1
China has 1 billion barrels stockpiled. Iran is sextively blockading, their oil and Chinese ship+crew was able to pass.
They’ll trade a little bit of oil for massive damage to the US.
中国储备了10亿桶原油。伊朗进行的是选择性封锁，他们的石油以及中国的船只和船员都能够顺利通行。
他们会用牺牲一点石油的代价，去换取对美国的巨大打击。
PhoenixKingMalekith
likes: 1
Bit of oil.
If you think the US will only strike military targets you are mistaken
Hard to ship oil without a port or pipelines
Hard to use electricity without power plants
Hard to use water without water infrastructure
一点石油罢了。
如果你以为美国只会打击军事目标，那你就大错特错了。
没有港口或管道，很难运输石油。
没有发电厂，很难用电。
没有水利基础设施，很难用水。
Haze_Yourself
likes: 1
Are you talking about China? That’s 3 years of supply on hand for them… and they get energy from diversified sources.
你是在说中国吗？人家手里囤着3年的供应量呢……而且他们的能源来源非常多样化。
PhoenixKingMalekith
likes: 1
I meant iran
China will suffer from a bad global economy like everyone
我说的是伊朗。
中国也会像其他国家一样受到全球经济衰退的波及。
Haze_Yourself
likes: 1
Ahh. Yeah, I think you’re being a bit delusional. Do I believe my country will and is committing war crimes? Yeah.
The Iranians are challenging the world to a poor off. Islamic militants fighting from the mountains are literally undefeated in a poor off. I don’t know why you expect that to change.
China will have to adjust, but has prepared for this moment far longer. All US allies are 5-6x more exposed to this. With reserves in the months range.
啊哈。好吧，我觉得你有点异想天开了。我相信我的国家将要并正在犯下战争罪吗？是的。
伊朗人正在向世界发起一场“比谁更能吃苦”的挑战。而在深山中作战的伊斯兰武装分子，在“比惨”方面简直是无敌的。我不知道你为什么指望这种局面会改变。
中国将不得不做出调整，但他们为这一刻准备的时间要长得多。所有美国盟友面临的风险是其5-6倍。他们的储备仅仅只够支撑几个月。
PhoenixKingMalekith
likes: 1
Ambush in mountains are one thing, creating missiles are another
Some "missiles towns" had their entry collapsed, with no way to ship missiles out of them
在山里伏击是一回事，制造导弹是另一回事。
一些“导弹镇”的入口都坍塌了，导弹根本运不出来。
Haze_Yourself
likes: 1
Adorable. They’re shipping them out by lighting the fuse. They have earth moving equipment, they can dig out the entrances. The drones can be built in your bedroom closet…
This is an impossible conflict to win for the US, the Iranians have been planning for this exact war for 20 years.
真天真。他们是靠点燃导火索把它们发射出去的。他们有推土设备，可以把入口挖通。无人机甚至都能在你的卧室衣柜里组装……
对美国来说这是一场不可能打赢的冲突，伊朗人为这场战争已经足足谋划了20年。
PhoenixKingMalekith
likes: 1
We ll see
saturation was the only way to do material damage and it s over for now
Without doing significant damage to anyone, especially israel
Shahed, thanks to ukrainian experience and now destroyed using canon fire or awpks rockets, keeping the cost of destroying them manageable
走着瞧吧。
饱和打击是造成实质性破坏的唯一途径，而现在这种招数已经玩不转了。
没有对任何人造成重大损害，尤其对以色列。
由于在乌克兰的经验，沙赫德无人机现在可以被高射炮火或APKWS火箭弹摧毁，这使得击落它们的成本能够控制在可接受的范围内。
Haze_Yourself
likes: 1
They already performed the saturation attacks. At the start and during last year. Now they’ve dramatically crippled the defensive weapons efficacy by destroying the massive radar arrays. Now they can fire fewer for same effect and prolong the conflict.
他们已经进行过饱和攻击了。一开始和去年期间都搞过。现在他们摧毁了大型雷达阵列，大幅削弱了防御武器的效能。如今他们只需发射更少的数量就能达到相同的效果，从而拖延冲突的时间。
PhoenixKingMalekith
likes: 1
Yeaaaaah right that s why there are basically no material damages
是啊，说得对，这就是为什么基本上没造成什么实质性破坏的原因。
Haze_Yourself
likes: 1
Look harder, there’s a massive censorship regime. You can see the radar array damage from satellites.
仔细查查吧，那里存在着庞大的审查制度。你可以从卫星图像上看到雷达阵列的损坏情况。
PhoenixKingMalekith
likes: 1
So why not strike now that there are no defenses left?
Right now Israel is just playing wack a moll, basically free of fear
那既然没防空了，为什么现在不发动打击呢？
现在的以色列只是在玩打地鼠游戏，基本上有恃无恐。
Haze_Yourself
likes: 1
I’m confused… but they are striking? They’re closing the straits and hammering the Israeli home front and US/Israeli positions throughout the Gulf and northern Iraq.
Are we watching a different war here?
我懵了……他们不正在打击吗？他们封锁了海峡，正在猛烈攻击以色列本土，以及遍布整个海湾地区和伊拉克北部的美国/以色列阵地。
我们看的是同一场战争吗？
PhoenixKingMalekith
likes: 1
Do we have any pictures that isnt AI of that devastation ?
Other than claims from Iran (who supposedly has downed a dwarf B21 and a carrier)
我们有任何不是AI生成的这些破坏的照片吗？
除了伊朗自己声称的（据称他们击落了一架缩水版B-21轰炸机和一艘航母）之外。
Haze_Yourself
likes: 1
Tried to show you proof. Reddit removed the truth. Whatever, you’ll see once the satellite footage comes out.
试图给你看证据的，但是Reddit把真相给删了。随便吧，等卫星画面出来你就知道了。
A_Hugh_Man
likes: 1
Israel won't let you see it.
But we know even Hezbollah has been scoring hits- they most recently hit Israeli military bases and Israeli radar stations.
Hezbollah. Not even Iran - Hezbollah. Which is a guerrila group that recently suffered a massive blow to its leadership.
Yes, even THEY are scoring hits on Israel now. That's how bad Israel's defenses have been hit or drained.[https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-running-low-on-arrow-interceptors-us-burning-through-its-systems-too-wsj/#:\\\\~:text=The%20military%20said%20Tuesday%20that,conditions%20to%20cover%20this%20conflict](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-running-low-on-arrow-interceptors-us-burning-through-its-systems-too-wsj/#:~:text=The%20military%20said%20Tuesday%20that,conditions%20to%20cover%20this%20conflict);
>A report in [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/06/17/israel-iran-missile-conflict/) Tuesday cited a person briefed on US and Israeli intelligence, who said that, according to “some assessments,” Israel can maintain its air defense for 10-12 days at the current rate of Iranian attacks — which have lessened since the start of the fighting last week — before it will require the US to replenish its stocks or get more involved in the war.
>The source also said that already by later this week, Israel “will need to sext what they want to intercept,” adding: “The system is already overwhelmed.”
>Advertisement
>Israel already chooses to allow some missiles to fall, when it knows they will land in open areas. However, when faced with large barrages, it has been unable to shoot down all missiles headed to population centers or critical infrastructure.
以色列不会让你看到的。
但我们知道连真主党都在命中目标——他们最近袭击了以色列的军事基地和雷达站。
真主党啊。甚至都不是伊朗，而是真主党。这还是一个最近领导层遭到毁灭性打击的游击组织。
是的，连他们现在都能打中以色列。这就是以色列的防御系统被破坏或消耗到了多么糟糕的地步。
>《华盛顿邮报》]周二的一份报道援引了一位听取过美国和以色列情报简报的人士的话称，根据“某些评估”，面对伊朗目前的袭击频率（自上周开战以来已有所减弱），以色列的防空系统只能维持10-12天——之后就需要美国补充库存或更深入地介入战争。
>该消息人士还透露，到本周末，以色列“将需要挑着目标拦截了”，并补充道：“该系统已不堪重负。”
>广告
>以色列在确知部分导弹会落入空旷地带时，已经主动选择放行。然而，当面临大规模的弹幕攻击时，他们已经无法击落所有飞向人口密集区或关键基础设施的导弹。
A_Hugh_Man
likes: 1
Iran has been preparing to fight this kind of war for DECADES.
They have deep, underground missile and rocket facilities with stockpiles ready to probably keep the US busy for ... potentially years, if need be.
Not saying they won't be signficantly more limited, but these aren't poor, unorganized Afghan farmers. These are fiercely nationalistic, trained and combat equipped fighters who have prepared for decades to fight Americans using every tool at their disposal.
This would be like the Viet Cong and NVA. As we all know, the US never destroyed their ability to produce cheap but destructive ordinance. And they did more than well enough with toys the Russians gave them.
The Iranians will most likely count on being armed by both the Russians (who are 1000000% going to get their get-back for the US supplying Ukraine if this war goes boots on ground), as well as the Chinese.
伊朗为打这种类型的战争已经准备了几十年。
他们拥有深埋地下的导弹和火箭设施，其储备可能足以让美国头疼……如果有必要的话，甚至能折腾好几年。
不是说他们的能力不会被大幅削弱，但这些人可不是那种贫穷、毫无组织的阿富汗农民。他们是一群狂热的民族主义者，受过良好训练、装备齐全，为了能用尽一切手段打击美国人已经准备了数十年。
这就像是越共和北越军。众所周知，美国从未摧毁过他们生产廉价但极具破坏性的军火的能力。而且他们用俄罗斯给的“玩具”也打得相当不错。
伊朗人极有可能指望得到俄罗斯（如果这场战争演变成地面战，为了报复美国援助乌克兰，俄罗斯绝对百分之百万会找补回来）以及中国的武装支持。
Dot-Slash-Dot
likes: 1
Here's the thing: The US could have easily done all 3. Hell basically all of Iran's seaborne oil export flow through one tiny island, it would take much less than what they sent yesterday to flatten it.
So why didn't they? Because Iran can do the same to the surrounding gulf states. Maybe not to the same extent as the US, maybe not as fast, or as cheap or as sophisticated. But they can blow up oil fields, export terminals, desalination plants etc.
And if they do the world economy has a giant fucking problem, not to speak of the refugee crisis if the gulf states suddenly have no potable water anymore.
事情是这样的：美国本可以轻而易举地做到这三点。见鬼，伊朗的海上石油出口几乎全部都要经过一个小岛，想把它夷为平地所需的弹药，比他们昨天扔的还要少得多。
那他们为什么不这么做呢？因为伊朗可以对周边的海湾国家以牙还牙。也许做不到像美国那种程度，也许没那么快，成本没那么低，手段也没那么高明。但他们同样能炸毁油田、出口码头、海水淡化厂等。
如果他们真这么干了，世界经济就会面临他妈的大麻烦，更别提如果海湾国家突然断了饮用水会引发怎样的难民危机了。
chrisjd
likes: 1
Iran has other trade routes open to it, before they starved the Gulf States would and the world would be plunged into a global depression
伊朗还有其他敞开的贸易路线，在他们被饿死之前，海湾国家肯定先撑不住，世界也会因此陷入全球性大萧条。
PhoenixKingMalekith
likes: 1
Iran has other, far more limited trade routes
That can all be bombed
伊朗还有其他更为受限的贸易路线，
但那些全都可以被炸毁。
chrisjd
likes: 1
You think we are willing and able to cut off shipping in the Caspian sea? To bomb all of Iran's neighbours including nuclear powers like Pakistan? No the US/West cannot actually play world police and cut Iran off from it's trading partners here.
Of course Iran could go to far and lose the support of Russia/China etc. But unless that happens they have plenty of ways to trade.
你以为我们有这个意愿和能力去切断里海的航运吗？去轰炸伊朗的所有邻国，包括像巴基斯坦这样的核武国家？不，美国/西方不能真的在这里扮演世界警察并切断伊朗与其贸易伙伴的联系。
当然，伊朗可能会做得太过火而失去俄罗斯/中国等的支持。但除非发生那种情况，否则他们有大把的途径进行贸易。
ChefCurryYumYum
likes: 1
Iran will stop because they don't want to keep getting hit themselves.
伊朗会停战的，因为他们自己也不想继续挨打了。
Overton_Glazier
likes: 1
They won't stop because the last time they stopped (less than a year ago), Israel came back and started the current bombing. They have zero reason to stop.
他们不会停手的，因为上次他们停手（不到一年前），以色列转头就回来开始了目前的这轮轰炸。他们完全没有理由停手。
Hamiltonblewit
likes: 1
But at the same time, what’s the point of not stopping if that’ll ensure the opposing side see no option but to try and wipe the other side out? If there’s no off-ramp, then it’s simply a matter of whose destructive capabilities is more potent, and Iran’s oil threats are meant to dissuade the U.S rather than seriously fight them on a conventional basis outside for a prolonged period.
但与此同时，如果不停止的后果就是让对方觉得别无选择只能将你彻底消灭，那死扛着不放又有什么意义呢？如果没有台阶下，那剩下的就只是一场看谁破坏力更强的比拼而已了。而伊朗用石油作威胁，目的在于劝退美国，而不是真的想在境外和美国打一场持久的常规战争。
invisiblelemur88
likes: 1
Sorry, how is it sufficient for Trump to stop? There are multiple parties involved here.
抱歉，只要特朗普停手就够了吗？这里面牵扯的可是多方势力啊。
FogduckemonGo
likes: 1
There is a possibility that Trump or Bibi will nuke Iran if the losses become too great. Could cause WW3, will very likely cause WW3. But they are really that unhinged and power mad.
如果损失太大，特朗普或比比（内塔尼亚胡）是有可能对伊朗动用核武的。这可能会引发第三次世界大战，甚至可以说是极有可能。但他们真的是那种精神错乱、权力熏心的疯子。
Much_Pilot355
likes: 1
Western media is fucking shameful and utterly disgraceful.
They still pretend that the Iranian public is setting at home and tacitly endorsing the Israeli-US barbarity that has fallen upon them, and are afraid to publicly say it.
The western MSM cope is unreal. First they convinced themselves from the place of plain narcissistic delusion that bombs will bring the people to overthrow their government, when that failed to materialize they run with the narrative that every Iranian deep down want to march on the regime but are afraid lMao. Complete nonsense for the bottom feeders.
Yes I’m sure Iranians are “boiling in anger” at their government while they are getting fucking bombed relentlessly. That’s their top priority now. They yearn to go on the streets amidst the bombings to *check note* topple the system and dismantle their state for the sake of the Israeli American geopolitical fantasies. Those bad bad security forces on the streets are the real barrier here I’m sure. Ignore the endless footage of mass rallies supporting the government and the complete absence of any kind of resistance.
It seems that when people are getting bombed, their schools destroyed and their skies literally darkened after Israel blow up oil facilities, they tend to rally around the flag while any resentments they have with the government becomes a minor issue at best.
Bummer I know !
西方媒体真他妈可耻，完全不要脸了。
他们还在装模作样地宣称，伊朗民众正乖乖待在家里，默许降临在他们头上的美以暴行，而且还不敢公开说出来。
西方主流媒体的精神胜利法简直离谱。一开始，他们出于纯粹的自恋式妄想，坚信炸弹会促使民众推翻自己的政府；当这一招不灵时，他们又开始炒作这样一种叙事：每个伊朗人内心深处都想推翻政权，只不过他们不敢而已，笑死我了。
这纯粹就是喂给底层脑残粉的狗屎。
是啊，我敢肯定伊朗人在遭受无情轰炸的同时，正对他们的政府“怒火中烧”呢。毕竟那才是他们现在的头等大事。他们渴望在枪林弹雨中走上街头，*让我看看笔记*，哦，去推翻现行体制，瓦解自己的国家，就为了成全美以的地缘政治幻想。我敢肯定，街头那些坏坏的安全部队才是真正的阻碍。至于支持政府的大规模集会视频铺天盖地，以及完全没有任何反抗迹象的现实，无视就好啦。
看来，当人们遭到轰炸、学校被毁，甚至在以色列炸毁石油设施导致天空都被染黑之后，他们反而更倾向于团结在国旗周围，而对政府的任何不满最多也就成了次要矛盾。
真让人失望，对吧！
chatte__lunatique
likes: 1
Even if Iranians were to topple the theocrats, why would it follow that the resulting state would be pro-Western, much less pro-US and Israel? I can very easily imagine a democratic Iran which still hates Israel and the US, given the constant war crimes inflicted upon their nation.
Bombing schools, hospitals, and water infrastructure, all while creating a toxic rain of oil on a city of over 15 million people, doesn't exactly engender goodwill and trust.
就算伊朗人真的推翻了神权统治，凭什么就一定认为随之建立的国家会亲西方，更别提亲美和亲以了？鉴于他们的国家不断遭受战争罪行的蹂躏，我很容易就能想象出一个依然仇视以色列和美国的民主伊朗。
轰炸学校、医院和供水基础设施，同时还在一个人口超过1500万的城市上空制造毒油雨，这可无法产生哪怕一丝一毫的善意和信任。
Julleispoese
likes: 1
Any version of Iran that emerges from this is going to hate America and Israel even more than it did before the war started.
无论这之后诞生的是怎样的一个伊朗，它对美国和以色列的仇恨都会比开战前更加强烈。
InTheNameOfScheddi
likes: 1
>The western MSM cope is unreal.
There is no cope, it is by design. Or by actual cope stemming from decades of European superiority propaganda.
>西方主流媒体的精神胜利法简直离谱。
这不是精神胜利法，这是刻意为之的。又或者是源于几十年来欧洲优越感宣传下所产生的实质性自我安慰。