We now can see more clearly the Trump Administration’s chosen path: In the wake of Davos and Munich, we have some light – both on Trump’s towering ambitions, and the means by which he hopes to achieve them. It may nonetheless be too late. Past policies shackle America’s future. Russia acting alone may not be able to burst Trump’s bubble, but China, Russia and Iran together can and might.
 
我们现在可以更清晰地看到特朗普政府选择的路径：在达沃斯论坛和慕尼黑会议之后，情况已有所明朗——无论是对于特朗普宏大的野心，还是他希望实现这些野心的手段。尽管如此，这可能已经太迟了。过去的政策束缚着美国的未来。俄罗斯单打独斗未必能戳破特朗普的泡沫，但中国、俄罗斯和伊朗联手则可以，也可能会这么做。
 
At Munich, Marco Rubio laid out the context to an unashamedly brash ambition: His premise is grounded on the view that decolonisation was effectively a sinister communist plot that destroyed 500 years of Western empires:
“For five centuries, before the end of the Second World War, the West had been expanding – its missionaries, its pilgrims, its soldiers, its explorers pouring out from its shores to cross oceans, settle new continents, build vast empires extending out across the globe”.
 
在慕尼黑，马可·卢比奥为一项毫不掩饰的鲁莽野心阐明了背景：他的前提基于这样一种观点，即去殖民化实际上是一个阴险的共产主义阴谋，它摧毁了西方帝国500年的基业：
 
“在第二次世界大战结束前的五个世纪里，西方一直在扩张——其传教士、朝圣者、士兵和探险家从海岸涌出，跨越海洋，定居新大陆，建立起延伸至全球的庞大帝国。”
 
“But in 1945, for the first time since the age of Columbus, it was contracting. Europe was in ruins. Half of it lived behind an Iron Curtain and the rest looked like it would soon follow. The great Western empires had entered into terminal decline, accelerated by godless communist revolutions and by anti-colonial uprisings that would transform the world and drape the red hammer and sickle across vast swaths of the map in the years to come”.
 
“但在1945年，自哥伦布时代以来，西方首次处于收缩状态。欧洲沦为废墟。其中一半生活在铁幕之后，其余部分看起来也很快会步其后尘。伟大的西方帝国已进入晚期衰落，而随之而来的无神论共产主义革命和反殖民起义加速了这一进程，这些运动将改变世界，并在未来的岁月里让红色的锤子与镰刀覆盖地图的大片区域。”
 
His gist is that such anticipated decline was a choice, and it is a choice Trump refuses to make:
“This is what we [the U.S. and Europe] did together once before, and this is what President Trump and the United States want to do again now, together with you [Europe] … We do not want to be shacked by guilt or to be the caretakers of managed decline … Instead, we want an alliance that boldly races into the future. And the only fear we have is the fear of the shame of not leaving our nations prouder, stronger, and wealthier for our children”.
 
他的要旨是，这种预期的衰落是一种选择，而特朗普拒绝做出这种选择：
 
“这是我们[美国和欧洲]以前共同做过的事情，这也是特朗普总统和美国现在想与你们[欧洲]再次共同做的事情……我们不想被负罪感所束缚，也不想成为那种受控式衰落的看管人……相反，我们想要一个大胆奔向未来的联盟。我们唯一的恐惧，是因没能为我们的子孙后代留下一个更自豪、更强大、更富有的国家而感到羞愧。”
 
There it is plainly set out: The U.S. is intent on restoring western Dominance. That past age can be recovered, Rubio insisted.
“We did together once before … We defended a great civilisation … We can do [it] again now, together with you”. Or we can do it alone. The choice is Europe’s to make.
All the actions that the imperial powers once did in the past, Trump plans to revive, in a jarring ‘might makes right’ nihilism. Ben Shapiro and Stephen Miller both echo the ‘vibe’:
“There is no such thing as international law. It is nonsense. You know what international law really is? Law of the jungle”.
 
这就清晰地展现在眼前：美国一心想要恢复西方的统治地位。卢比奥坚称，那个过去的时代是可以挽回的。
“我们以前共同做到过……我们捍卫了一个伟大的文明……我们现在可以再次做到，与你们[欧洲]一起。”或者我们可以独自完成。选择权在欧洲手中。
 
特朗普计划以一种令人不安的“强权即公理”的虚无主义，复兴帝国主义列强过去所采取的所有行动。本·夏皮罗和斯蒂芬·米勒都呼应了这种“氛围”：
“根本不存在所谓的国际法。那是胡说八道。你知道国际法究竟是什么吗？是丛林法则。”
 
What could put a halt to this ambitious Trumpian enterprise of upending law, asking no one’s permission to act? Lacking any other measure beyond cultivating a Nietzsche-esque Will to Power. What might stand in its way?
Well … China. China, together with Russia, Iran and the BRICS more widely might stand in the way. And as always, Hubris – alone in herself – can lead to downfall. Recall how Treasury Secretary Bessent said of China’s riposte to U.S. tariffs: “A big mistake … they have a losing hand … they’re playing with a pair of twos”. Hubris.
 
是什么能阻止这场宏大的、颠覆法律且行事无需征得任何人许可的特朗普式事业？除了培养尼采式的“权力意志”外，别无他法。那么，什么可能阻碍它的道路呢？
 
嗯……中国。中国，以及俄罗斯、伊朗和更广泛的金砖国家（BRICS）可能会阻碍这一进程。而且一如既往，傲慢——仅凭其自身——就能导致垮台。回想一下财政部长贝森特对中国反击美国关税的评价：“一个大错误……他们手里的牌注定会输……他们拿着一对2在玩。”这就是傲慢。
 
America is indeed shackled by its past decisions: Its skew to a financialised economic model; its bipolar economic and political construct; its dependency on external supply lines; its uncontrolled spending profligacy; its debt mountain and the choice to pursue an AI model that will put many of the western Middle Classes out of a job, all mitigate for ‘project failure’.
In practical terms, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been off-loaded onto the Europeans who repeatedly fail to present any political or security solution to the issue; they simply demand a continuation to a conflict that Ukraine is badly losing. Ukraine becomes Europe’s financial albatross now.
 
美国确实被其过去的决策所束缚：它向金融化经济模式的倾斜；其两极分化的经济和政治结构；对外部供应链的依赖；失控的挥霍性支出；债台高筑，以及选择追求一种将导致许多西方中产阶级失业的人工智能模式，所有这些都指向了“项目的失败”。
 
从实际层面来看，俄乌冲突已被转嫁给欧洲人，而欧洲人一再未能为该问题提出任何政治或安全解决方案；他们只是要求延续一场乌克兰正惨败的冲突。乌克兰现在成了欧洲财务上的沉重枷锁。
 
China is whatAmerica’s new posture is all about: Strangling the Chinese economy through trade ‘war’; a naval blockade to choke off its energy corridors; militarising the First Island Chain; seizing tankers and destroying Chinese supply lines. Blockades on Venezuela, Cuba and Iran are all lixed. If dollar hegemony cannot be maintained, then Trump is determined to achieve U.S. energy dominance.
The Trump Team is replete with China ‘hawks’, military hawks and trade hawks. But China knows what the U.S. plans – and has prepared. For now, Team Trump is focussed on separating the fronts: The U.S. cannot fight both Russia, China and Iran. So it is ‘Iran First’, then a weakening of Russia – plus a tightening of blockades and sieges around China.
 
美国新态势的核心就是中国：通过贸易“战争”扼杀中国经济；利用海军封锁切断其能源走廊；将第一岛链军事化；扣押油轮并摧毁中国的供应链。对委内瑞拉、古巴和伊朗的封锁都与此相关。如果美元霸权无法维持，那么特朗普决心实现美国的能源主导地位。
 
特朗普团队充斥着对华“鹰派”、军事鹰派和贸易鹰派。但中国了解美国的计划，并已做好准备。目前，特朗普团队正专注于分化战线：美国无法同时对抗俄罗斯、中国和伊朗。因此，策略是“伊朗优先”，随后削弱俄罗斯，同时加强对中国的封锁和围困。
 
Michael Vlahos, who taught war and strategy at the U.S. Naval War College, however, observes that:
“China represents today a military force that is the opposite of that which faced the U.S. in the Pacific in 1941. [AT that time] Japan, in terms of its military effectiveness and the size of its Navy, [wa]s really the equivalent of the U.S. and U.S. Navy today – whereas China is the equivalent of the U.S. as it was in 1941”.
“In other words, China has all the capacity to build and produce planes and ships. It has 200 times the ship-building capacity of the U.S. And the U.S. is in a position where today it cannot even maintain and repair the ships it has. If you look at American warships, they are covered in rust. It’s shameful”.
 
曾在美国海军战争学院教授战争与战略的迈克尔·弗拉霍斯观察到：
 
“今天的中国所代表的军事力量，与1941年在太平洋面对美国的日本截然相反。当时，日本的军事效能和海军规模实际上相当于今天的美国和美国海军——而中国则相当于1941年时的美国。”
 
“换句话说，中国拥有建造和生产飞机及舰船的全部能力。其造船能力是美国的200倍。而美国现在的处境是，甚至无法维护和修理现有的舰船。如果你看看美国的军舰，它们锈迹斑斑。这简直是耻辱。”
 
Yet the U.S. already has lost the more consequential war – the financial war.
Both Bessent and Rubio are following the same playbook, which economist Sean Foo calls “Neocon Basics 101”:
“The harsh reality for Bessent (and Trump) is that China’s trade surplus has reached an incredible $242 billion in Q4 last year – equivalent to 4.4% of GDP”.
 
然而，美国已经输掉了一场更具影响力的战争——金融战。
贝森特和卢比奥都在遵循同一套策略，经济学家肖恩·富将其称为“新保守主义基础入门”：
“对贝森特（以及特朗普）来说，残酷的现实是，中国的贸易顺差在去年第四季度达到了惊人的2420亿美元——相当于其国内生产总值（GDP）的4.4%。”
 
The other side of the coin to this U.S. trade deficit is that whilst China’s trade with the U.S. is down by over 20% almost every month versus a year ago, with the rest of the world (including Africa and Asia), China’s exports are Up – and growing strongly.
Recall that Trump earlier had insisted that China would be forced to ‘eat’ the tariffs that he had imposed on it. That didn’t happen.Overwhelmingly those tariffs were passed on to the U.S. consumers and importers. China simply pivoted to exporting to everywhere other than the U.S. China today is both highly self-sufficient and competitive — America is neither.
 
美国贸易逆差的另一面是，虽然中国对美贸易与去年同期相比几乎每月下降超过20%，但对世界其他地区（包括非洲和亚洲），中国的出口却在上升且增长强劲。
 
回想一下，特朗普此前曾坚称中国将被迫“消化”他对其征收的关税。但这并没有发生。这些关税绝大多数都转嫁给了美国的消费者和进口商。中国只是简单地转向出口到美国以外的各地。今天的中国既高度自给自足又具有竞争力——而美国两者皆无。
 
Traditionally the U.S. covers such trade deficits in two ways — “Either Washington begs the Federal Reserve to print money; or they issue more financial assets [i.e. Treasuries]”, notes Foo. Normally, the Treasury would indeed issue Bonds or Bills to cover the deficit, but China is buying neither —
“This leaves the U.S. facing a structural trade deficit that will add $1.4 trillion to the U.S. annual deficit over the next decade. Which means that, instead of just borrowing $1.9 trillion this year, the U.S. will eventually need to borrow $3.1 trillion by 2036. And this is annual borrowing”.
“So, the value of all these debt-assets (U.S. bonds) is also collapsing [interest rates are rising]. It’s a big reason why the U.S. has to go around the world and shake down allies for money. There’s literally no spare cash to reinvest or subsidize industries directly. The U.S. is essentially broke”.
 
富指出，传统上美国通过两种方式弥补此类贸易逆差——“要么华盛顿乞求美联储印钱；要么他们发行更多金融资产[即国债]”。通常情况下，财政部确实会发行债券或票据来弥补赤字，但中国这两者都不买——
 
“这使美国面临结构性贸易逆差，在未来十年内，这将使美国的年度赤字增加1.4万亿美元。这意味着，到2036年，美国最终每年需要借款3.1万亿美元，而不仅仅是今年的1.9万亿美元。而且这是年度借款。”
 
“因此，所有这些债务资产（美国国债）的价值也在崩溃[利率正在上升]。这就是为什么美国必须走遍全球，敲诈盟友要钱的一个重要原因。美国实际上已经没有多余的现金可以直接进行再投资或补贴工业。美国本质上已经破产了。”
 
“All China needs to do is continue running a big current account surplus and the U.S. debt situation will get worse and worse. China’s surplus keeps growing larger because China also has capital controls. The money earned by Beijing stays mostly within the country and they strategically invest it elsewhere”.
“Trump, [for the moment], is surviving on foreign companies and countries shifting production to the U.S. So far there’s half a trillion dollars’ worth of investment pledges from global companies. But if China continues to control global trade, all these companies could simply U-turn their commitments”.
 
“中国所需要做的就是继续保持巨额经常项目顺差，美国的债务状况就会变得越来越糟。中国的顺差持续扩大，是因为中国还设有资本管制。北京赚到的钱大部分留在国内，并且他们战略性地将其投资于其他地方。”
 
“特朗普[目前]依靠外国公司和国家将生产转移到美国来生存。到目前为止，全球企业已承诺提供价值5000亿美元的投资。但如果中国继续控制全球贸易，所有这些公司都可能直接撤回其投资承诺。”
 
“Bessent’s solution is for China to consume more – and sell less to the world. But there’s a problem with that statement. Even if China consumes more, that doesn’t mean they will buy more U.S. goods. It’s not a 1:1 correlation here. A lot of goods the U.S. sells, China can replace domestically. They can always source it from elsewhere at a cheaper price, as well. There’s really no urgency from the Chinese side to buy more stuff from Trump’s economy”.
 
“贝森特的解决方案是让中国消费更多，并减少向全球销售。但这种说法存在一个问题。即使中国消费更多，也不意味着他们会购买更多美国商品。这里不存在1:1的相关性。美国销售的许多商品，中国都可以在国内替代。他们也总能从其他地方以更低廉的价格采购。中国方面确实没有从特朗普经济体中购买更多东西的紧迫感。”
 
The heart to the Trump strategy is that he needs for China to give up global market share in order to give space for U.S. exports to grow globally, but U.S. goods are not competitive. Therefore the dollar would have to be further dued to make U.S. manufacturing capable of capturing a greater share of global export markets.
 
特朗普战略的核心是，他需要中国放弃全球市场份额，以便为美国出口在全球范围内的增长腾出空间，但美国商品并不具备竞争力。因此，美元必须进一步贬值，才能使美国制造业有能力夺取更大的全球出口市场份额。
 
China is just too competitive, argues Sean Foo:
“The U.S. is running out of cards to play, which just points to a bigger crisis in the dollar. The bond markets – and everything financial going forward”.
 
肖恩·富认为，中国实在太有竞争力了：
“美国已经快没牌可打了，这正指向一场更大的美元危机。债券市场——以及未来所有的金融领域都将面临危机。”
 
The fear, he explains, is that: “Trump is going to debase the dollar to spend more. That Trump [is] going to goose up the numbers by making big government even bigger. Now, the scary thing is that he might not have a choice here. The labour market isn’t just wobbling. Under the tariff war regime it’s outright collapsing. It’s even worse than we all thought. Now, the collapse totalled 2.1 million jobs over the last 3 years. It’s even worse than the ‘08 housing crisis that only saw losses of 1.2 million”.
 
他解释说，令人担忧的是：“特朗普将通过贬值美元来扩大支出。特朗普将通过让庞大的政府变得更加庞大来粉饰数据。现在，可怕的是他可能别无选择。劳动力市场不只是在动摇，在关税战体制下，它正在彻底崩溃。情况甚至比我们想象的还要糟糕。过去三年中，就业岗位总计减少了210万个。这甚至比2008年的住房危机还要严重，当时仅损失了120万个岗位。”
 
“Trump is really caught in a quandary. Either he U-turns the trade war or he commits to a much weaker dollar and even bigger deficit spending. We probably know what he’ll do, right? He’ll spend, spend, and spend. And this is one trade war that the U.S. can’t afford to lose. We are beginning to see the entire U.S. system cracking. This hyper financialized economy is buckling under its own weight. And the most immediate crisis today is the AI bubble popping, risking multiple implosions. There’s a reason why 64% of Americans feel the economy is not doing well: It’s doing poorly. China has the cards”.
 
“特朗普确实陷入了困境。他要么在贸易战上掉头，要么致力于大幅贬值美元并进行更大规模的赤字支出。我们大概知道他会怎么做，对吧？他会不停地花钱，再花钱。而这场贸易战是美国输不起的。我们正开始看到整个美国体系出现裂痕。这种过度金融化的经济正在自身重压下坍塌。而眼下最迫切的危机是人工智能泡沫的破裂，这可能引发多重崩溃。64%的美国人觉得经济状况不佳是有原因的：它的确表现糟糕。中国掌握着主动权。”
 
这种傲慢在于相信美国市场是无可替代的，且没有人能承受被排除在外的代价——但这恰恰是中国正有目的地在做的事情。