Not long ago, smoking was just a very common pastime. Doctors light cigarettes in the consultation room, athletes smoke after the game, tobacco companies are big sponsors in the advertising industry, and there are even special smoking areas on planes. If you don't smoke, you'll seem out of place instead. However, with the deepening of scientific research, the continuous accumulation of cancer data, and the change in social perception through public health promotion, cigarettes have gradually transformed from a "fashion symbol" to a "health killer".
曾几何时，吸烟只是再普通不过的一种消遣。医生在诊室里点烟，运动员在赛后抽烟，烟草公司是广告界的金主，飞机上甚至还专门设有吸烟区。如果你不抽烟，反倒显得格格不入。然而，随着科学研究的深入，癌症数据不断累积，公共卫生宣传改变了社会认知，香烟逐渐从“时尚象征”变成了“健康杀手”。
 


Nowadays, a new question is being frequently discussed - will alcohol follow in the footsteps of cigarettes?
From a global perspective, the alcohol industry is experiencing a significant cooling down. In 2025, global sales of alcoholic beverages declined by approximately 1% year-on-year, with wine being the most severely hit, experiencing a drop of 2.4%. Global wine consumption has dropped to its lowest level since 1961, and the growth rate of spirits sales is also slowing down. Don't underestimate these figures. You should know that alcohol was long regarded as an "anti-recession industry", and it has almost only risen and never fallen for decades.
如今，一个新的问题正在被频繁讨论——酒精，会不会步香烟的后尘？
 从全球数据来看，酒精行业正面临明显降温。2025年，全球酒精饮品销售额同比下降约1%，其中葡萄酒受冲击最为严重，下滑幅度达到2.4%。全球葡萄酒消费量已降至1961年以来的最低水平，烈酒销售增速也在放缓。别小看这些数字，要知道，酒精曾长期被视为“抗衰退行业”，几十年来几乎只涨不跌。
 
The key force driving this change is precisely Generation Z. Statistics show that the alcohol intake of Generation Z is about 20% lower than that of millennials, and a considerable number of young people choose to quit drinking completely. One of the reasons is the significant improvement in health awareness. The World Health Organization has clearly pointed out that there is no "safe value" for any dose of alcohol, not even a small glass of red wine. Wine, which has long been packaged as "good for heart health", is losing its scientific endorsement.
推动这一变化的关键力量，正是Z世代。统计显示，Z世代的酒精摄入量比千禧一代低了约20%，而且相当一部分年轻人选择彻底戒酒。原因之一，是健康意识的显著提升。世界卫生组织明确指出：任何剂量的酒精都不存在“安全值”，哪怕是一小杯红酒。长期以来被包装成“有益心脏健康”的葡萄酒，正在失去科学背书。
 
Meanwhile, the way of socializing itself is also changing. In the past, socializing was almost equivalent to drinking - parties, binge drinking, and a hangover the next day. But nowadays, more and more people choose to prioritize their health over short-term indulgence, from controlling calorie intake to avoiding the physical burden of a hangover. This reflects a redefinition of the quality of life.
与此同时，社交方式本身也在发生改变。过去，社交几乎等同于饮酒——聚会、畅饮、第二天宿醉。但现在，越来越多的人选择把健康放在短暂放纵之前，从控制热量摄入，到避免宿醉带来的身体负担，背后反映的是对生活质量的重新定义。
 
The rise of substitutes is also reshaping the market landscape. Non-alcoholic beverages are experiencing explosive growth. In 2020, the global non-alcoholic beverage market size was approximately 923 million US dollars, and by 2028, this figure may exceed 1.7 trillion US dollars. Non-alcoholic beer is rapidly growing into the second largest category of beer worldwide. In addition, marijuana, which has been legalized for entertainment in nearly half of the states in the United States, has also to some extent diverted alcohol consumption.
替代品的崛起，也在重塑市场格局。非酒精饮品正迎来爆发式增长。2020年，全球非酒精饮品市场规模约为9.23亿美元，而到2028年，这一数字可能超过1.7万亿美元。无酒精啤酒正迅速成长为全球第二大啤酒品类。此外，在美国近一半州实现娱乐性合法化的大麻，也在一定程度上分流了酒精消费。
 
Economic factors should not be ignored either. In an environment of high inflation, prices have risen across the board, from rent to food. Expensive cocktails have been the first to be "abandoned" by young people. Coupled with the influence of social media, health, alxness and self-discipline are gradually becoming new value labels.
经济因素同样不可忽视。高通胀环境下，从房租到食品全面上涨，价格不菲的鸡尾酒首先被年轻人“抛弃”。再加上社交媒体的影响，健康、清醒和自律正逐渐成为新的价值标签。

There is a deeper change: people are becoming less sociable. In the United States, people spent an average of nearly 30 hours with friends each month in 2003, but by 2019, this figure had dropped to around 10 hours. With reduced social interaction, alcohol consumption naturally drops.
还有一个更深层的变化：人们正在变得不那么爱社交了。在美国，2003年人们每月平均与朋友相处近30小时，而到2019年，这一数字已降至10小时左右。社交减少，饮酒自然随之下降。
 
Facing the trend, the alcohol industry has not denied the reality but is proactively making adjustments. Zero-alcohol beer, non-alcoholic spirits and a rich menu of non-alcoholic cocktails are making their way into mainstream bars. So, will alcohol really become "the next cigarette"?
面对趋势，酒精行业并未否认现实，而是在主动调整。零酒精啤酒、无酒精烈酒、丰富的无酒精鸡尾酒菜单正在进入主流酒吧。那么，酒精真的会成为“下一个香烟”吗？

The answer from most analysts is negative. On the one hand, historical experience shows that people tend to increase their alcohol consumption as they age. On the other hand, alcohol is deeply embedded in culture, religion and rituals - weddings, festivals, sacrifices, these emotional and traditional Spaces that cigarettes have never had.
多数分析师的答案是否定的。一方面，历史经验显示，人们往往随着年龄增长而增加饮酒量；另一方面，酒精深度嵌入文化、宗教与仪式之中——婚礼、节庆、祭祀，这些情感与传统空间，是香烟从未拥有的。
 
Perhaps, alcohol will not disappear, but it is being redefined. For the previous generation, drinking was a coming-of-age ceremony and a form of social currency. For Generation Z, not drinking alcohol is becoming a new attitude. This, perhaps, is the most profound and radical change.
也许，酒精不会消失，但它正在被重新定义。对上一代人来说，喝酒是成年礼，是社交货币；而对Z世代而言，不喝酒，正在变成一种新的态度。这，或许才是最深刻、也最激进的变化。