Recently, attention in international financial markets toward the trajectory of the U.S. dollar has continued to intensify. Multiple data sources indicate that during the first annual cycle following the start of Donald Trump’s second presidential term, the dollar has experienced its most significant annual decline in nearly a decade. According to statistics from The Telegraph and other media outlets in the United Kingdom, the U.S. dollar has depreciated by more than 8 percent against a basket of ten major currencies, including the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound, marking its largest annual drop since 2017. This development has sparked widespread discussion among market participants, academic circles, and the general public.
近期，国际金融市场对美元走势的关注持续升温。多项数据显示，在特朗普开启第二任期后的首个年度周期内，美元出现了近十年来最为显著的一次年度下跌。根据英国《每日电讯报》等媒体统计，美元兑一篮子包括欧元、日元、英镑在内的十种主要货币累计贬值超过8%，创下自2017年以来的最大年度跌幅。这一变化引发了市场、学界以及普通民众的广泛讨论。


Analysts point out that unlike previous cyclical fluctuations in the dollar, the current weakening is not primarily driven by external shocks such as a global economic recession, natural disasters, or public health crises. Instead, it is largely rooted in uncertainty surrounding U.S. domestic policies and foreign strategy. Among the key factors undermining confidence in the dollar is the Trump administration’s revival and expansion of tariff-based trade conflicts. These tariff measures have directly raised import costs, slowed international trade flows, and weakened the United States’ appeal as a global center for trade and investment.
分析人士指出，与以往美元阶段性波动不同，此轮美元走弱并非主要由全球经济衰退、自然灾害或公共卫生危机等外部冲击所驱动，而更多源自美国国内政策及对外战略的不确定性。其中，特朗普政府重启并扩大关税贸易战，被认为是打击美元信心的关键因素之一。关税措施直接推高了进口成本，抑制了国际贸易流动，也削弱了美国作为全球贸易和投资中心的吸引力。

At the same time, the president’s repeated public challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve have been widely viewed by markets as another major factor eroding the foundations of the dollar. For decades, the Federal Reserve has been regarded as an institution insulated from political cycles, and the stability of its policy frxwork has served as a cornerstone of global investor confidence in the U.S. dollar system. However, President Trump has repeatedly criticized the Federal Reserve chair for what he described as mistimed interest rate decisions and has signaled the possibility of political intervention or even leadership changes, unsettling market expectations about the future direction of U.S. monetary policy. This uncertainty has prompted some capital to shift toward other currencies perceived as more stable.
与此同时，总统对美联储独立性的频繁公开质疑和施压，也被市场视为动摇美元根基的重要因素。美联储长期以来被视为独立于政治周期的机构，其政策稳定性是全球投资者信任美元体系的重要支柱。然而，特朗普多次指责美联储主席加息或降息“节奏错误”，并释放可能干预甚至更换管理层的信号，使市场对美国货币政策前景产生不安。这种不确定性，促使部分资本流向其他被认为更稳定的货币资产。

Experts emphasize that the impact of a weakening dollar extends far beyond financial markets or Wall Street. As the world’s primary currency for international settlement and pricing, fluctuations in the dollar directly affect inflation levels and the cost of living within the United States. A depreciating dollar makes imported goods more expensive, pushing up the costs of energy, food, and everyday consumer items, thereby intensifying inflationary pressures. For middle- and lower-income households, these effects are particularly pronounced, manifesting directly in grocery bills, fuel expenses, and housing-related costs.
专家强调，美元走弱的影响并不局限于金融市场或华尔街。美元作为国际结算和定价货币，其汇率变化将直接影响美国国内的通胀水平和居民生活成本。美元贬值意味着进口商品价格上升，能源、食品和日用品成本随之提高，加剧通胀压力。对于中低收入家庭而言，这种变化将更加明显，直接反映在超市账单、燃油支出以及住房相关费用上。

Even more noteworthy is the renewed scrutiny of the dollar’s long-term global status. In recent years, some countries have gradually reduced their reliance on the U.S. dollar in trade settlement and foreign exchange reserves. Analysts suggest that if dollar weakness persists alongside continued policy instability in the United States, it could further accelerate the trend toward “de-dollarization.” Such a shift would not only weaken U.S. dominance within the global financial system but could also raise borrowing costs for the U.S. government and corporations, placing additional pressure on long-term economic growth.
更值得关注的是，美元的长期地位问题正在被重新审视。近年来，部分国家已在贸易结算和外汇储备中逐步降低对美元的依赖。分析认为，若美元持续走弱，叠加美国政策不稳定，可能进一步推动“去美元化”趋势。这不仅会削弱美国在全球金融体系中的主导地位，还可能抬高其政府和企业的融资成本，对长期经济增长构成压力。
 
Against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions and accelerated global supply chain restructuring, international capital is placing increasing emphasis on institutional stability, policy predictability, and governance credibility. Market observers broadly agree that the current decline of the dollar is no longer a simple short-term fluctuation, but is closely lixed to presidential policy direction. Analysts note that in the period ahead, the dollar’s trajectory and its broader impact on the global economy will remain a key focal point in international financial discussions throughout 2026.
在当前全球地缘政治紧张、供应链重组加速的背景下，国际资本更看重制度稳定性、政策可预期性和治理能力。市场普遍认为，美元的这轮下跌，已不再是单纯的短期波动，而是与美国总统政策方向存在高度关联。相关人士表示，未来一段时间，美元走势及其对全球经济的影响，仍将是2026年国际财经领域的重点观察对象之一。