如果日本赢得了壬辰倭乱并征服了朝鲜会怎样？

Meow
喵

They would continued to have faced rebellions from locals and the Ming Chinese wouldn’t have tolerated such a huge Japanese force on the continent. Unlike in the 19th century, the technological edge between the two sides would be even, with the Chinese having the edge in artillery and cavalry and the Japanese in musketry and close combat.

他们仍会面临当地民众的反抗，而明朝政府也绝不会容忍如此庞大的日本军队出现在中国大陆。与19世纪不同的是，当时双方的技术水平差距不大，其中明军在火炮和骑兵方面占据优势，日军则在火枪射击和近身格斗方面更胜一筹。

Ieyasu was a very cautious leader and would likely have withdrawn the men from Korea who would face constant guerrilla attacks and such. Imjin was Hideyoshi’s brainchild and Hideyoshi’s alone. Ieyasu wouldn’t have wanted any part of it, especially since supplies and such were so tedious.

德川家康是一位极为谨慎的领导者，面对持续不断的游击袭击等情况，他很可能会将军队从朝鲜撤回。壬辰倭乱是丰臣秀吉一手策划的，完全是他个人的主张。德川家康本就不愿参与其中，尤其是补给等问题又如此繁琐棘手。

Nguyễn Công Tâm Love history, regular reader of history articles

阮公心 热爱历史，常读历史文章

They wouldn’t be able to keep Korea for long.
First for the Japanese to successfully conquered Korea in the Imjin war, several alternative events must take place.

日军无法长期占据朝鲜半岛。
要想在壬辰倭乱中成功征服朝鲜，日军需要满足多个假设条件。

For instance:
Yi Sun-Shin must have never taken any significant command in the Joseon Army.
the Ming dynasty had never sent a force sizable enough to repel the Japanese.

例如：
李舜臣从未在朝鲜军队中担任任何重要指挥职务。
明朝从未派遣足以击退日军的大规模援军。

The Japanese invading army had been more united and spirited enough to subdue the Koreans., soldiers and civilians alike, by ways of both brute force and corruption. Some samurai commanders had shown their opposition to the invasion and when they were on Korean soil many of them just couldn’t get along with each other.
and many more…

入侵的日军需更加团结且斗志昂扬，通过武力镇压和收买分化等手段，彻底制服朝鲜军民。然而历史上，部分武士将领本就反对此次入侵，在朝鲜战场上更是矛盾重重、难以协作。
诸如此类的条件还有很多。

And had the Japanese truly made it, say, in 1592. They still wouldn't have been able to stay there peacefully for long. The Korean national identity was already strong at that time, and they also have their powerful “Middle Kingdom” (Ming dynasty) brother right next to them who would help them any time he got his hands free. The Koreans would rebel and drive the Japanese back to their homeland at all costs.

即便日军真的在1592年征服了朝鲜，也无法长期安稳地统治。当时朝鲜民众的民族认同感已然强烈，且身旁有强大的明朝作为后盾，一旦明朝腾出援手，朝鲜军民必将不惜一切代价发动反抗，将日军驱逐出境。

One example for you to look at is the Ming rule over Vietnam in the early 15th century. After successfully conquering Vietnam, the Chinese implemented different policies to assimilate the Vietnamese people into Chinese culture. Yet after 20 years they were finally driven out of Vietnam. The Ming emperor at the time, Xuande, even admitted that it would be better for the Ming if they let Vietnam declare independence and stayed as their tributary.

15世纪初期明朝统治越南的历史便是例证。明朝征服越南后，推行了一系列文化同化政策，但仅过了20年便被越南民众驱逐。当时的明宣宗朱瞻基也不得不承认，让越南独立并成为明朝的藩属国，对明朝更为有利。

Meanwhile, Hideyoshi would die without an able heir and Tokugawa Ieyasu at home would take advantage of that to climb to power. In the worst-case scenario for Ieyasu, he would just form an alliance called the Eastern Army as what happened in history, to make war against the pro-Toyotomi clans. In any case, the daimyos on Korean soil, who are either partying and celebrating their gains from the war or industriously involved in the administration of their newly acquired land, would have to return home to prevent Ieyasu to destroy Hideyoshi’s inheritance, as well as their fortune.

与此同时，丰臣秀吉死后并无合格继承人，德川家康必将趁机夺权。即便面对最坏的情况，他也会像历史上那样组建东军，与拥护丰臣氏的势力开战。无论局势如何，那些在朝鲜战场上瓜分战果、忙于管理新领地的大名们，都必须回国阻止德川家康夺取丰臣氏的基业，以保全自身的利益。

Meow Lived in China (2011–2012)
喵 曾在中国生活（2011-2012年）

Originally Answered: What if the Japanese won the Imjin War and conquered Korea and China?
Korea maybe, China, never. Not in 1592.

原问题：如果日本赢得壬辰倭乱并征服了朝鲜和中国，会怎样？
或许朝鲜有可能，但中国绝无可能，至少在1592年绝无可能。

I doubt it could hold out for long. Once Hideyoshi dies, all these Japanese clans are going to scramble back to Japan to keep their precarious positions back home alive. The small Japanese garrisons left in Korea will be nothing but targets and fresh meat for the enormous opposition in Korea embittered by the Samurai.

而且即便日本征服了朝鲜，也难以长期维持统治。丰臣秀吉一旦去世，各路日本大名必将争相返回日本，巩固自身岌岌可危的地位。而留守朝鲜的少量驻军，对于饱受武士欺凌、群情激愤的朝鲜反抗势力来说，不过是待宰的羔羊和攻击目标。

Once Sekigahara breaks out and Ieyasu wins, he’ll likely pull out of Korea because to Ieyasu it was certainly not worth the hassle of trying to hang on to overtly hostile territory.
They’ll be gone by 1600

一旦关原之战爆发，德川家康获胜，他很可能会从朝鲜撤军。因为在德川家康看来，为了守住这片充满敌意的土地而劳心费力，实在得不偿失。
到1600年，日军必将全部撤离朝鲜。

Bot 
匿名

If Japan had decisively won the Imjin War (1592–1598) and conquered Korea, East Asia’s political, cultural, and technological trajectories from the 17th century onward would have shifted markedly. The most plausible long-term outcomes include a Japan-dominated Korean peninsula as a vassal or colony, altered Sino-Japanese relations, different Tokugawa policies, and ripple effects on European contact and regional trade. Below are the main plausible consequences, arranged thematically and chronologically.

倘若日本在壬辰倭乱（1592-1598年）中取得决定性胜利并征服朝鲜，17世纪以后东亚的政治、文化和科技发展轨迹将发生显著改变。最可能出现的长期结果包括：朝鲜半岛沦为日本的附庸国或殖民地，中日关系格局重塑，德川幕府推行截然不同的政策，同时对欧洲与东亚的交流及区域贸易产生连锁反应。以下将按主题和时间顺序，阐述最可能出现的主要影响。

Immediate political outcome (late 16th–early 17th century)

短期政治影响（16世纪末-17世纪初）

Puppet regime or direct colonial administration: Japan would likely install a pliant Joseon remnant court or replace it with governors drawn from Japanese daimyo who had led the invasion. Given logistical limits and internal Japanese politics, initial rule would blend military occupation, tributary structures, and local collaboration.

傀儡政权或直接殖民统治：日本很可能会扶持一个顺从的朝鲜残余朝廷，或由主导入侵的日本大名担任总督取而代之。受制于后勤限制与日本内政，初期统治将融合军事占领、朝贡体系与地方合作三种模式。

Ming collapse accelerated: A successful Japanese conquest of Korea would remove Korea as both a Ming ally and buffer, exposing China’s northeastern flank and increasing military and diplomatic pressure on the Wanli court. Ming resources already strained by coastal piracy and internal problems might be further stretched; in the worst case this would hasten Ming decline.

明朝灭亡加速：日本若成功征服朝鲜，将使明朝失去这一盟友兼缓冲国，中国东北边境完全暴露，万历朝廷面临的军事与外交压力骤增。明朝本就因沿海倭寇与内部问题而资源紧张，若再应对日本扩张，国力将进一步透支，最坏情况下会加速明朝的衰落。

Korean resistance and insurgency: Local guerrilla warfare, banditry, and intermittent rebellions would make southern Korea a prolonged counter-insurgency theater. Japan would need to commit garrisons and resources, producing steady military expenditures and political friction among daimyo over spoils and posts.

朝鲜抵抗运动：地方游击战、土匪活动与零星起义将使朝鲜南部沦为长期反游击战场。日本需持续派驻驻军并投入资源，这不仅会造成稳定的军费开支，还会因战利品与职位分配引发大名间的政治冲突。


Longer-term political order (17th–18th centuries)

长期政治秩序（17-18世纪）

Early Japanese imperial expansion: A stable Japanese presence in Korea would create a continuous land-based frontier and boost ambitions for further continental influence—possible attempts to control Liaodong or influence Manchuria. That could trigger earlier confrontation with rising Manchu power; Tokugawa or succeeding regimes would have to choose containment, accommodation, or expansion.

日本早期帝国扩张：若日本在朝鲜站稳脚跟，将获得连续的陆地边境，进而助长其在大陆的扩张野心，可能会尝试控制辽东或影响满洲地区。这将提前引发与崛起的满洲势力的冲突，德川幕府或后续政权需在遏制、和解与扩张之间做出战略选择。

Tokugawa domestic effects: If the Tokugawa shogunate (established 1603) had to manage a Korean occupation, sakoku (isolation) policies would likely be modified. Maintaining overseas garrisons and trade routes would favor a more engaged maritime policy and could empower maritime daimyo (Satsuma, Kato, etc.), altering the balance of Bakufu control and potentially delaying or changing centralized Tokugawa stabilization.

德川幕府的内政影响：1603年建立的德川幕府若需管理朝鲜占领区，其锁国政策或将被迫调整。维持海外驻军与贸易路线需要更积极的海洋政策，这可能会增强萨摩、加藤等外样大名的实力，打破幕府的权力平衡，甚至可能延缓或改变德川幕府中央集权的稳定进程。

Alternative vassal-tributary system: Japan might adopt a tributary-style relationship with Korea—extracting tribute, using Korean ports for trade, and supervising a dependent Korean court—creating a different East Asian order where Japan is a suzerain rather than an isolated island power.

另类朝贡体系：日本可能与朝鲜建立朝贡式关系，通过榨取贡品、利用朝鲜港口开展贸易、监督依附性的朝鲜朝廷等方式，构建以日本为宗主国而非孤立岛国的东亚新秩序。

Economic and trade consequences

经济与贸易影响

Redirected trade flows: Control of Korea gives Japan better access to continental trade, raw materials (timber, ores), and skilled Korean artisans. Japan could integrate Korean shipyards and ports into its merchant networks, increasing bilateral commerce and maritime power.

贸易流向重组：控制朝鲜使日本能更便捷地参与大陆贸易，获取木材、矿石等原材料及朝鲜熟练工匠。日本可将朝鲜造船厂与港口纳入其商业网络，促进双边贸易并提升海上实力。

Technological diffusion: Japan would receive more direct transfer of Chinese and Korean technologies—printing, metallurgy, ceramics, military engineering—while also exporting Japanese military practices back to the continent. Conversely, Japanese administration would shape Korean industry toward Japanese needs, possibly stalling or redirecting indigenous Korean technological developments.

技术传播：日本将更直接地吸收中朝两国的印刷、冶金、陶瓷与军事工程技术，同时向大陆输出日本的军事制度。但另一方面，日本的统治会使朝鲜工业服务于日本需求，可能阻碍或改变朝鲜本土技术的发展方向。

European interaction: European traders and missionaries (Portuguese, Spanish, Dutch, later English) would negotiate with a Japan-centered regional system. Japan’s occupation of Korea might make it an intermediary or barrier for European access to China; the Dutch East India Company could focus more on Nagasaki–Korea routes. Missionary activity in Korea could be blocked or channeled through Japanese policy.

欧洲互动：欧洲商人与传教士（葡萄牙、西班牙、荷兰及后来的英国）需与以日本为中心的区域体系打交道。日本占领朝鲜后，可能成为欧洲与中国贸易的中介或障碍，荷兰东印度公司或将更专注于长崎 - 朝鲜航线。朝鲜的传教活动可能被日本政策限制或引导。

Cultural and demographic effects

文化与人口影响

Assimilation and cultural layering: Over generations policies would range from limited cultural imperialism (official language, governance) to pragmatic tolerance to reduce rebellions. Korean elites might adopt Japanese court practices or vice versa; Japanese administration would incorporate Korean scholars and artisans into its economy.

文化同化与叠加：历经数代后，日本的政策将在有限文化帝国主义（官方语言、治理模式）与实用主义宽容之间摇摆，以减少反抗。朝鲜精英可能效仿日本宫廷制度，反之亦然；日本统治阶层会吸纳朝鲜学者与工匠参与经济建设。

Population movements: Japanese settlers—soldiers, administrators, merchants—would relocate to Korean ports and fertile regions. Recurrent epidemics, warfare, and forced labor would reduce Korea’s population in the short term; recovery and intermarriage would lead to mixed communities by the 18th century.

人口迁移：日本移民（士兵、官员、商人）将移居朝鲜港口与肥沃地区。短期内，频繁的瘟疫、战乱与强制劳役会导致朝鲜人口减少；但随着战后恢复与通婚现象增多，到18世纪将形成多民族混居社区。

Religious and intellectual impacts: Buddhist and Confucian institutions would adapt under occupation. Neo-Confucian orthodoxy might be politically weakened if collaborators and Japanese officials promoted different administrative norms. Christianity’s trajectory in Korea could be altered—either suppressed by Japanese authorities or introduced under different patronage.

宗教与思想影响：佛教与儒家机构需在占领下调整适应。若亲日派与日本官员推行不同的行政规范，程朱理学的正统地位可能在政治上被削弱。基督教在朝鲜的传播轨迹或将改变，要么被日本当局镇压，要么在新的庇护体系下传入。

Military and strategic consequences in East Asia

东亚军事与战略影响

Earlier continental confrontations: A militarized Japan on the peninsula increases friction with the Later jin/Manchu state; the Manchus might accelerate their southern campaigns to remove a Japanese foothold, producing earlier Sino-Japanese-Manchu conflicts, or alternatively seek alliances with anti-Japanese Korean forces.

早期大陆冲突：朝鲜半岛上的军事化日本将加剧与后金（满清）政权的摩擦。满洲势力可能会加速南征以清除日本的据点，从而引发更早的中日满三方冲突；或者选择与朝鲜抗日势力结盟，共同对抗日本。

Korean geography as strategic depth: Japan holding Korean ports and shipyards would project naval power into the Yellow Sea, threatening northern Chinese maritime lines and shaping Manchu strategic calculations.

朝鲜地理的战略纵深价值：日本控制朝鲜港口和造船厂后，可将海军力量投射至黄海，威胁中国北方海上航线，进而影响满洲政权的战略决策。

Fortification and garrison costs: Sustaining a conquest requires permanent garrisons, supply chains, and naval dominance—costs that could strain Japan’s fragmented daimyo polity and possibly provoke domestic revolt or decentralization if the Bakufu fails to monopolize the spoils.
防御工事与驻军成本：维持对朝鲜的征服需要长期驻军、稳定的供应链及海上霸权，这些成本将加剧日本各大名割据政权的财政压力。若幕府无法垄断战争收益，可能引发国内叛乱或进一步的权力分散。

Social and institutional changes in Korea

朝鲜的社会与制度变革

Land and labor reorganization: Japanese authorities would redistribute land to soldiers and collaborators, altering Korean yangban-peasant relations and potentially increasing commercialization of agriculture under Japanese mercantile interests.

土地与劳动力重组：日本当局会将土地重新分配给士兵与亲日派，改变朝鲜原有的两班贵族与农民阶层关系。在日本商业利益驱动下，朝鲜农业的商业化程度可能会进一步提高。

Bureaucratic co-optation: Japanese administrators would likely co-opt segments of the Korean bureaucracy for local governance, creating a hybrid administrative class that preserves some Korean institutional forms but is subordinate to Japanese oversight.

官僚体系的同化：日本管理者可能会吸纳部分朝鲜官僚参与地方治理，形成一种混合行政阶层——既保留部分朝鲜原有制度形式，又需接受日本的监督管控。

Legal and cultural suppression: Elements of Korean autonomy—printing, censorship, Confucian academies—might be curtailed where they foster resistance; alternatively, the occupiers might allow some local elites to retain cultural roles to stabilize rule.

法律与文化压制：朝鲜的自治元素，如印刷业、审查制度及儒家书院等，若被认为可能滋生反抗情绪，将遭到限制。但另一方面，占领者也可能允许部分地方精英保留文化职能，以稳定统治秩序。

Global consequences (17th–19th centuries)

全球影响（17-19世纪）

Earlier Japanese modernization pressure: Managing continental possessions and dealing with European competition could stimulate earlier centralization and administrative reform in Japan—potentially pushing some modernization forward before the 19th century, or conversely exhausting resources and delaying reforms.

日本现代化压力提前：管理大陆殖民地及应对欧洲竞争，可能促使日本更早推行中央集权与行政改革，甚至在19世纪前就启动部分现代化进程。但反之，这也可能耗尽日本资源，导致改革进程延缓。

Different colonization templates: A successful Japanese conquest of Korea centuries earlier would provide a precedent and administrative experience for later imperial ventures; by the 19th century Japan might be better prepared, altering the timeline and methods of its Meiji-era expansion.

殖民模式的改变：日本若在数世纪前就成功征服朝鲜，将为其后续的帝国扩张提供先例与管理经验。到19世纪时，日本可能已具备更充分的殖民准备，从而改变明治时期扩张的时间线与方式。

Impac on Korea’s later fate: If Japan’s grip persisted into the 19th century, the specific 20th-century annexation (1910) would be redundant; the peninsula might already have been integrated economically and politically, changing the nationalism and resistance movements that in our timeline shaped modern Korean identity.

对朝鲜后续命运的影响：若日本对朝鲜的控制持续至19世纪，那么20世纪的正式吞并（1910年）将变得多余。届时朝鲜半岛可能已在经济和政治上与日本深度融合，改变历史进程中塑造现代朝鲜民族认同的民族主义运动与抵抗斗争轨迹。

plausible limits and counterforces

潜在限制与制衡力量

Logistical overreach: Japan’s ability to hold Korea would depend on sustained naval supremacy and finances; without centralized fiscal capacity, occupation would be costly and politically destabilizing.

后勤补给过度延伸：日本能否守住朝鲜，取决于其能否维持长期海上霸权与财政支撑。若缺乏中央集权的财政能力，占领朝鲜将耗费巨额成本，且会引发国内政治动荡。

Manchu reaction: The rise of the Manchus created a powerful counterforce; they could have expelled Japan from Korea or forced a negotiated settlement, making long-term Japanese control contested or temporary.

满洲的反击：满洲势力的崛起形成了强大的制衡力量，他们可能将日本逐出朝鲜，或迫使日本达成谈判和解，使日本对朝鲜的长期控制充满争议或仅为暂时现象。

European influence and firearms: Shifting European trade and firearms supply could advantage either side—if Europeans sided indirectly with the Ming/Manchu or supplied guns to Korean partisans, occupation would be harder to maintain.

欧洲势力与火器影响：欧洲贸易及火器供应的转向可能对任意一方有利。若欧洲间接支持明朝/满洲，或向朝鲜抵抗力量提供枪支，日本将更难维持对朝鲜的占领。

Examples and analogues

历史例证与类比

Japanese annexation of Korea (1910–1945) shows practical methods—land reform, industrial extraction, cultural suppression—but 16th–17th century technology, logistics, and political fragmentation would produce a far different, less centralized colonialism.

日本吞并朝鲜（1910-1945年）提供了现实的殖民手段参考，包括土地改革、工业掠夺与文化压制。但16-17世纪的技术水平、后勤条件及日本的政治分裂状态，将催生一种截然不同且集权程度更低的殖民模式。

Mongol invasions and Ming vassalage provide analogues for how a powerful mainland empire treats a subordinate Korea: tribute extraction, local autonomy for elites, and strategic buffer management.

蒙古入侵与明朝藩属体系则为大陆强国如何对待附属国朝鲜提供了类比：包括征收贡品、保留地方精英自治权及将其作为战略缓冲区管理等。

Summary projection

总结预测

A Japanese victory and conquest of Korea after the Imjin War would have reconfigured Northeast Asian geopolitics: Japan would become a continental actor with claims in Korea, prompting earlier and more intense conflicts with Ming/Manchu China; Tokugawa policies and Japanese centralization would evolve differently to manage overseas obligations;

壬辰倭乱后若日本获胜并征服朝鲜，将彻底重塑东北亚地缘政治格局：日本将成为拥有朝鲜领土主张的大陆国家，引发与明朝/满洲中国更早且更激烈的冲突；德川幕府的政策与日本的中央集权进程将为管理海外领地而发生改变；

 Korea’s social, economic, and cultural landscape would be transformed through occupation, collaboration, and resistance. The durability of such a conquest would hinge on Japan’s ability to fund and garrison the peninsula and on responses from the Ming and rising Manchu power—likely producing a contested, costly, and historically consequential alternative East Asia.

朝鲜的社会、经济与文化面貌将在占领、合作与抵抗的交织中被彻底重塑。这种征服的持久性，将取决于日本为朝鲜半岛提供资金与驻军的能力，以及明朝和崛起的满洲政权的应对——很可能形成一个充满争议、代价高昂且具有重大历史影响的东亚新格局。

Takayuki Karahashi

高桥隆之

The reason why the Imjin Wars (Imjin/Bunroku 1592–1593 and Chongyu/Keicho 1597–1598) ended is because the Japanese kampaku Toyotomi Hideyoshi died in 1598. The Japanese daimyos no longer had any reason to stay in Korea, so they withdrew.

壬辰倭乱（1592-1593年文禄之役与1597-1598年庆长之役）的结束，原因在于日本关白丰臣秀吉于1598年去世。日本大名们失去了留在朝鲜的理由，因此全部撤军。

In order to explore an alternate history where Japan won the Imjin Wars, you need to make the biggest rewrite of history where Toyotomi Hideyoshi wouldn’t have died in 1589. That means Tokugawa Ieyasu would not have become shogun, and there wouldn’t have been an Edo shogunate. There wouldn’t have been a Meiji Restoration and the modernization of Japan in the 19th century. 

若要假设日本赢得壬辰倭乱的另类历史，就必须对历史进行最大程度的改写——假设丰臣秀吉未在1598年去世。这意味着德川家康无法成为征夷大将军，江户幕府也不会建立，进而19世纪的明治维新与日本现代化进程都将不复存在。

It’s possible Japan would have been carved up by 19th century colonial powers the same way China and the rest of Asia fell.
But what of Korea and the short-term alternate history in the late 16th and early 17th centuries?

日本甚至可能像中国及其他亚洲国家一样，在19世纪被殖民列强瓜分。
但在16世纪末17世纪初的短期内，朝鲜的另类历史又会是怎样的呢？

Hideyoshi’s plan was to secure Korea as a land route to fold out a campaign against Ming China. He would have been happy to consider Korea a footnote to award to his vassal daimyos, if he could get his own trophy.

丰臣秀吉的计划是将朝鲜作为进攻明朝的陆上通道，若能实现征服明朝的目标，他乐于将朝鲜作为附属奖励分封给麾下大名，仅将其视为战略计划的注脚。

As much as sentiments are rife with the idea that grassroots resistance would have made any kind of occupation a miserable failure, that’s not how feudalism works. The peasantry was there to be taxed, and that was it. 

尽管普遍认为基层抵抗会使任何形式的占领都以惨败告终，但这并非封建制度的运作逻辑。农民阶层的存在本质上就是为了缴纳赋税。

So, say, if Gyeonsang province was award to Mori Terumoto, Terumoto would appoint some local Korean official as the tax collector. He’d be told, “You can collect as much taxes as you want. Just give me the amount that’s due for me.” 

例如，若将庆尚道分封给毛利辉元，他会任命当地朝鲜官员担任收税官，并告知对方：“你可任意征税，只需将我应得的份额上缴即可。”

Greed wins, and it’s the Korean tax collector who’d be oppressing the people. (You know it, because this happens in real history.) When the local rebellion happens, it’s the Korean tax collector who’s hung naked from his ankles with his nose chopped off.
As for whether Hideyoshi succeeds in conquering Ming China and its consequences, though, that’s a separate piece of alternate history to explore.

贪婪会驱使这些朝鲜收税官压迫民众，这在真实历史中屡见不鲜。当民众发动叛乱时，被倒吊示众、割去鼻子的往往正是这些朝鲜收税官。
至于丰臣秀吉能否成功征服明朝及其带来的影响，则是另一个值得探讨的另类历史议题。

Justin J. Pak B.A. in East Asian Studies & Business Studies, New York University (Graduated 2012)

贾斯汀·J·帕克 纽约大学东亚研究与商业研究学士（2012年毕业）

Originally Answered: What if the Japanese won the Imjin War and conquered Korea and China?

原问题：如果日本赢得壬辰倭乱并征服了朝鲜和中国，会怎样？

It would’ve been messed up for a while, but as history has shown us, the Koreans and Chinese don’t like being governed by foreign powers, especially by those that are perceived as less civilized. Eventually the people of either country would rise up.

短期内局势可能陷入混乱，但历史已然证明，朝鲜和中国人民绝不甘心被外国势力统治，尤其是被他们认为“不够文明”的政权。最终，两国人民必将奋起反抗。

Then there’s the issue of the nomadic warriors like the Manchus (which the Japanese would not be ready to fight). At some point, another powerful nomadic tribe would emerge and topple the Japanese governments.
No matter what, eventually the Japanese would be expelled.

此外，还有满洲等游牧民族势力的威胁，而日本显然尚未准备好与他们抗衡。届时，必将有新的强大游牧部落崛起，推翻日本的统治。
无论过程如何，日本侵略者最终都将被驱逐出境。

Anonymous
匿名用户

What if Japan won the Imjin war?

如果日本赢得了壬辰倭乱，会怎样？

For starters, I just want to clarify that Japan, Under Toyotomi Hideyoshi wanted to Invade Korea/China because of the political circumstances in Japan, the biggest one being the Semi-End of the Sengoku Jidai, and the acension of the Toyotomi to the heads of Japan. So let’s skip from 1589 to 1596–1598.

首先需要明确，丰臣秀吉统治下的日本之所以入侵朝鲜和中国，是由当时的日本国内政治局势决定的，其中最关键的因素是战国时代接近尾声，丰臣氏成为日本的统治核心。我们直接从1589年跳至1596-1598年这段时间。

 I would say that Japan had a better chance of winning the Second Invasion, because one they had crippled most of the Korean navy at the battle of Chilcheonyang, with 188 vessels being captured. Now this was a golden oppertunity to gain Sea dominance, but 12 vessels had escaped.

我认为日本在第二次入侵中获胜的可能性更大，因为他们在漆川梁海战中重创了朝鲜海军，俘获了188艘战船。这本是日本夺取制海权的绝佳机会，但仍有12艘朝鲜战船逃脱。

So this is where I will start, 1597. Let’s say that after the Sea battle of Chilcheonyang, all the Korean Vessels are captured, meaning no battle of Meongnyang. And Japan gains Sea dominance. Without Dominance on Sea, the Japanese could mount a Two-pronged invasion from Jeolla Province and Busan, meaning that the Sino-Korean armies are now cut off, and this results in those armies being captured/crushed. 

我们的假设就从1597年这一刻开始：倘若漆川梁海战后朝鲜战船全军覆没，那么鸣梁海战就不会发生，日本将完全掌控制海权。凭借海上优势，日本可以同时从全罗道和釜山发动双线进攻，切断中朝联军的联系，进而合围并歼灭这支联军。

Now it is worth mentioning the Jurchen at this time. Under Nurhaci, the Jurchen, or the Jianzhou Jurchen where starting to unify the Jurchen tribes, as well as the Wanli emperor starting to become an awful monarch. IF the Japanese are smart enough they can negotiate with the Jurchen to switch sides, giving the Jurchens some Technology,

值得注意的是，当时努尔哈赤领导的建州女真正开始统一女真各部，而明朝万历皇帝也已逐渐变得昏庸无道。如果日本足够明智，完全可以与女真族谈判结盟，向他们提供部分技术支持。

1598.With the Jurchen having switched sides, Korea is surrounded by two opposing states, with the Jurchen crossing the Yalu river from the North, and the Japanese attacking from the south, Korea is captured, meaning Japan fulfils their obxtive. So what now? Well the Jurchen are at war with the Ming, meaning they Unify earlier and the Ming dynasty will collapse earlier than in our timeline.

1598年。女真族倒向日本后，朝鲜陷入南北夹击的困境：女真军队从北部渡过鸭绿江，日军从南部发起进攻，朝鲜最终被征服，日本实现了战略目标。接下来会发生什么？由于女真本就与明朝处于战争状态，与日本结盟将加速他们的统一进程，明朝也会比历史上更早灭亡。

Freddie Chen Agnostic. I am not wiriting the fact but what I know.

弗雷迪·陈 不可知论者。我所写的并非史实，只是基于我的认知。

What if Japan won the Imjin War and conquered Korea?

如果日本赢得壬辰倭乱并征服朝鲜，会怎样？

You will have to aware that it means that it defeated Ming Dynasty once for all.
And the next step of Japan would be conquer Ming Dynasty as Toyotomi Hideyoshi planned.
Or even it defeated Joseon and forced Ming Dynasty army which was supporting Joseon retreat back to Ming. Ming Dynasty would come back, banish Japan occupier and restore Joseon dynasty.

你必须清楚，这意味着日本彻底击败了明朝。那么，日本下一步必将按照丰臣秀吉的计划，继续征服明朝。即便日本只是击败朝鲜，迫使支援朝鲜的明军撤回国内，明朝也必定会卷土重来，驱逐日本侵略者，帮助朝鲜复国。