经济学家预测美国经济何时崩溃：就是这一天

@WeAretheWorld89
When a country tells you they will raise tariffs on your , products and is unfriendly to you, won't you seek new outlet?

当一个国家告诉你，他们将对你的产品提高关税，并且对你不友好时，你难道不会寻求新的出路吗？

@katieevans6017
This has been the Biden policy, Trump is doing the same. Huge mistake.

这是拜登的政策，特朗普也在做同样的事情。这是个巨大的错误。

@NGC-catseye
China put tariffs on Australian beef, wine and lobsters during covid period. We got to eat cheap beef and wine and we just sold the rest of our products to other markets. It didn’t effect us BUT it did effect them,,, so they removed the tariffs last year. We don’t get cheap stuff anymore

中国在大流行时期对澳大利亚的牛肉、葡萄酒和龙虾征收关税。我们吃到了便宜的牛肉和葡萄酒，我们把其他产品卖到了其他市场。这对我们没有影响，但对他们有影响，所以他们去年取消了关税。我们再也吃不到便宜货了。

@miriguwa1958
@NGC-catseye The wine duties were a sharp hit for the key Australian industry, with sales to China down 97% in 2021 from the previous year at a loss of nearly 1 billion Australian dollars in value and 90 million liters in volume, according to national industry group Wine Australia.
So you drinking cheap wine compensated for the loss of 1 billion dollars foreign exchange to the Australian economy when the sanctions were on?
"It didn’t effect us BUT it did effect them,,, ". Are you serious? You think only Australia has beef, wine and lobsters? You need to do a little research before coming to silly conclusions.
In the 12 months ending September 2024, Australia exported 59 million liters of wine to mainland China. It's affecting you my friend if they stop importing wine.

澳大利亚葡萄酒行业组织称，葡萄酒关税对澳大利亚的重要产业造成了沉重打击，2021年对华销售额比上一年下降了97%，损失价值近10亿澳元，损失量达9000万升。
所以，你喝廉价葡萄酒就能弥补制裁给澳大利亚经济造成的10亿澳元外汇损失？
你是认真的吗？你以为只有澳大利亚才有牛肉、葡萄酒和龙虾吗？在得出愚蠢的结论之前，你需要做一些调查。
在截至2024年9月的12个月里，澳大利亚向中国大陆出口了5900万升葡萄酒。如果他们停止进口葡萄酒，你会受到影响的，我的朋友。

@Monkey341
@NGC-catseye
Hahaha! It don't affect us? You sure? It was reported that your lobsters, coal, wine, barley, meat industries were all affected. So, don't BS here, okay?

哈哈哈！“对我们没有影响？”你确定？据报道，你们的龙虾、煤炭、葡萄酒、大麦、肉类产业都受到了影响。所以，别在这里胡说八道了，好吗？

@JDere
Of course you'd try. However, no single country in the world can absorb $551 billion dollar trade with China, not even the entire EU. Now, talk all the nonsense you want.

你当然会尝试。然而，世界上没有任何一个国家能消化与中国5510亿美元的贸易额，即使是整个欧盟也不行。现在，尽情地胡说八道吧。

@yedidyah-jedshlomoh1533
The United States pursued a protectionist policy from the beginning of the 19th century until the middle of the 20th century. Between 1861 and 1933, they had one of the highest average tariff rates on manufactured imports in the world. After 1942, the U.S. began to promote worldwide free trade and lost industry.
Tariffs were the greatest (approaching 95% at times) source of federal revenue until the federal income tax began after 1913. For well over a century the federal government was largely financed by tariffs averaging about 20% on foreign imports.
Low taxes and high tariffs bring the industry back.

从 19 世纪初到 20 世纪中叶，美国一直奉行保护主义政策。从 1861 年到 1933 年，美国是世界上对制成品进口征收平均关税率最高的国家之一。1942 年后，美国开始在世界范围内推行自由贸易并导致工业衰退。
在 1913 年后开始征收联邦所得税之前，关税一直是联邦收入的最大来源（有时接近 95%）。在长达一个多世纪的时间里，联邦政府的财政收入主要来自对外国进口商品征收的平均约 20% 的关税。
低税率和高关税带来了产业回归。

@altacalifornio5375
Food for thought:
China Trade & Investment Summary
Exports were (from US to China) $195.5 billion; imports were $562.9 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with China was $367.4 billion in 2022. U.S. goods exports to China in 2022 were $154.0 billion, up 1.7 percent ($2.6 billion) from 2021 and up 39 percent from 2012…. Sooo

值得深思：
中国贸易与投资摘要：
美国对中国的出口额为1955亿美元，进口额为5629亿美元。2022年，美国对中国的商品和服务贸易逆差为3674亿美元。2022年美国对中国的商品出口额为1540亿美元，比2021年增长1.7%（26亿美元），比2012年增长39%....。

@userz9481
You got what you voted for, don't cry now

你得到了你投票的结果，现在别哭。

@tommoclement
Indeed they did. However, one hopes they see that voting for Trump was such a stupid decision. He played to the uneducated. He played the racist card. And yet those who about his racist views. Vote for him. So what does that make them???

的确如此。然而，人们希望他们明白，投票给特朗普是一个多么愚蠢的决定。他玩弄了没有受过教育的人。他打出了种族主义牌。然而，那些反对他的种族主义观点的人却投了他的票。他们怎么了？

@raymond-i2v
Some economists have projected that both the U.S. and parts of Europe could slip into a recession for a portion of 2024. A global recession, defined as a contraction in annual global per capita income, is more rare because China and emerging markets often grow faster than more developed economies. Essentially the world economy is considered to be in recession if economic growth falls behind population growth.

一些经济学家预测，美国和欧洲部分地区可能在2024年的部分时间里陷入衰退。全球经济衰退是指全球人均年收入的缩减，这种情况较为罕见，因为中国和新兴市场的增长速度往往快于发达经济体。从根本上说，如果经济增长落后于人口增长，世界经济就会被认为陷入衰退。

@davidelplaneta272
That makes sense and this story is about economics and the possibility of a recession. But the more interesting question is how can any capitalist economy continue to function without overpopulating the world resulting in catastrophic damage to the planet? Some people think that space travel is the only option,
but they are wealthy and powerful and would be amongst the few people who would have the ability to survive in a toxic atmosphere. I don’t advocate for socialism or Communism or anything that has proven to not work, but there must be a way for life to continue without destroying itself and changing the economic system will have to be part of the solution. Just a thought for consideration.

这是有道理的，这篇报道是关于经济和经济衰退的可能性的。但更有趣的问题是所有资本主义经济如何才能在不造成世界人口过剩和对地球造成灾难性破坏的情况下继续运行？有些人认为太空旅行是唯一的选择、
但他们都是有钱有势的人，是少数有能力在有毒大气中生存的人。我不主张社会主义或共产主义，也不主张任何已被证明行不通的东西，但一定有办法让生命在不自我毁灭的情况下继续生存下去，而改变经济体系必须成为解决方案的一部分。这只是一个供参考的想法。

@Rosula_D
We're living in a changing world and the people who refuse to adapt will have to face the worst consequences. No power can stay on top for ever. Unfortunately for the US citizens, they keep choosing people who accelerate their fall.

我们生活在一个不断变化的世界，拒绝适应的人将不得不面对最糟糕的后果。没有哪种力量可以永远高高在上，不幸的是美国公民一直在选择加速他们堕落的人。

@Felipe-n3j
Plsss don’t blame the downfall of USA economy on China….China is not to blame.

请不要把美国经济的衰落归咎于中国....，中国没有责任。

@edwinwise6751
The focus on hitting quarterly numbers and keep shareholders happy with little view to the future , with a large dose of hubris . Look at General Electric under Jack Welsh and what he left behind for a great example of what got us here

专注于实现季度业绩并让股东满意，却很少着眼于未来，这其中有很大一部分是自负。看看杰克-韦尔奇（Jack Welsh）领导下的通用电气（General Electric）和他留下的东西，我们就会明白是什么让我们走到今天这一步。

@sheba8433
Tariffs are always paid by the America consumer with higher prices,

关税总是由美国消费者以更高的价格买单的。

@castirondude
Of course tariffs are paid by the consumer. It makes sense to tax foreign made products instead of domestic, even if the total tax burden is the same.

关税当然由消费者买单。即使总税负相同，对外国制造的产品征税也比对本国制造的产品征税有意义。

@janventer7942
You seem to fail to understand that the tariffs protect American industries and jobs from being undercut by Chinese government subsidies.

你似乎不明白，关税保护了美国的工业和就业，使其免受中国政府补贴的伤害。

@carolynstokes333
We can't take any more price increases. The prices for products are out of control, now. If tariffs are added, basic food meds goods just to live will be a rough walk not seen probably since the great depression.

我们不能再忍受价格上涨了，现在的产品价格已经失控。如果加征关税，基本的食品和药品将很难获得，这可能是大萧条以来从未有过的。

@janventer7942
@michaeljohn7398 Rubbish? That's your argument? The *** gives their EV manufacturers a 50% subsidy, so their vehicles dont cost $50k, only $25k. In the US, there is no subsidy, so American vehicles cost $50k. So poeple by Chinese cars, and American manufacturers go bancrupt, and people lose their jobs. Can you give me an intelligent answer instead of "rubbish"?

垃圾？这就是你的论点？***给他们的电动汽车制造商提供50%的补贴，所以他们的汽车售价不高，只有2.5万美元。在美国，没有补贴，所以美国汽车的价格是5万美元。因此，人们购买中国汽车，而美国制造商却倒闭了，人们失去了工作。你能给我一个明智而不是“垃圾”的答案吗？

@panli-z4m
@janventer7942 Nonsense, China only has tax incentives for the auto industry, and new energy vehicles are exempt from purchase tax. There are no other subsidies.
China offers a 50% subsidy per car? China sells over 30 million cars a year, how much do you figure? Use your brain.

胡说八道，中国对汽车行业只在税收方面有优惠，新能源车可以免购置税。没有其他补贴。
中国对每辆汽车提供50% 的补贴？中国一年汽车销量超过3000万辆，你算算是多少钱？动动你的脑子。

@sureshravindran1271
Well done. This constant bullying, has been going on for too long. Every country has the right to equality and respect.

做得好。这种持续不断的欺凌已经持续太久了，每个国家都有平等和受尊重的权利。

@wynetsang
China is helping US in carrying out the isolationist policy.

中国在帮助美国执行孤立主义政策。

@stevenchan7537
As US always say, you need US more than US need you. Good luck.

美国常说你们需要美国多过美国需要你们，祝你们好运。

@counseloridealist
We had our chance to elect the best person to lead our country, but we were forced to return to the Stone Age with an unsuitable person. The uneducated people in this country took the road to nowhere, and they took us with them.

我们本有机会选出最好的人来领导我们的国家，但我们却被迫与一个不合适的人一起回到石器时代。这个国家没有受过教育的人走上了一条不归路，他们把我们也带走了。

@Pierina.24
A trade war with China is the 2nd worst thing that can happen to the American people. China can stop buying American goods but America CAN'T stop buying Chinese goods because Americans do NOT buy Chinese goods in America. Does anyone living in America see Chinese brands being sold in the country? Brands like Huawei, DJI, xiaomi, Geely, BYD, Tencent, Douyin, OPPO are not household names on the shelves of American retailers.
What about Made in China? Goods Americans buy that are made in China are American brands made in China, not Chinese brands. Americans can stop buying Made in China but it hurts the American consumer most having to buy alternatives at higher prices. Next most affected are the American corporations losing sales in America. The least affected by a trade war are the Chinese workers making American goods in China. In 2014, U.S.-based multinational affiliates employed a mere 1.7 million workers in China, with nearly half of them working in manufacturing.
Unfortunately most American people don't know this.

对美国人民来说，与中国打贸易战是第二糟糕的事情。中国可以停止购买美国商品，但美国无法停止购买中国商品，因为美国人不会在美国购买中国商品。生活在美国的人看到过中国品牌在美国销售吗？华为、大疆、小米、吉利、比亚迪、腾讯、豆瓣、OPPO 等品牌在美国零售商的货架上并不家喻户晓。
中国制造呢？美国人购买的中国制造的商品是中国制造的美国品牌而不是中国品牌。美国人可以停止购买中国制造的产品，但这对美国消费者的伤害最大，他们不得不以更高的价格购买替代品。其次受影响最大的是在美国失去销售额的美国公司，受贸易战影响最小的是在中国生产美国产品的中国工人。2014年，总部设在美国的跨国公司在中国仅雇用了170万名工人，其中近一半从事制造业。
遗憾的是，大多数美国人并不知道这一点。

@dexter726
American goods made in China can be produced in America if manufacturing is more and more automated, using robots, etc. The question is where that will leave the average American worker in terms of being able to make a living wage.

如果制造业越来越自动化，使用机器人等，中国制造的美国商品也可以在美国生产。问题是这样一来，普通美国工人的生活水平将何去何从？

@scottgeorge4268
Basic sales technique? When you constantly insult and attempt to bully your customers they tend to find alternative suppliers.

基本的销售技巧？当你不断侮辱并试图欺负你的客户时，他们往往会寻找其他供应商。

@paulphotios3920
I feel a reenactment of the great depression a century ago. All those with first hand knowledge are now gone and we rely on the not so accurate history books. Failure of agricultural markets is an indicator. My wife lived through perestroika in russia and that has similarities to what is happening in the western world. Tr��ump could very well achieve the same as what Gorbachev did in russia when he tipped economic markets upside down. The only winner in russia were the oligarchs and the same thing could happen in the usa.

我感觉一个世纪前的大萧条重演了。所有掌握第一手资料的人都已离世，我们只能依靠并不准确的历史书。农业市场的失败就是一个指标。我的妻子经历过俄罗斯的改革开放，这与西方世界正在发生的事情有相似之处。特朗普很可能实现与戈尔巴乔夫在俄罗斯所做的相同的目标，当时他颠覆了经济市场。俄罗斯唯一的赢家是寡头，同样的事情也可能发生在美国。

@kellikelli4413
Now I understand why so many store names in America are closing or scaling back - they are stores that sell many made in China items (they're planning ahead).

现在我明白为什么美国有那么多商店关门或缩减规模了--他们都是出售许多中国制造商品的商店（他们未雨绸缪）。

@briankin1827
It is not Trump but the american people as they have duly elected him to be their leader and spokesperson.So enjoy the rough times ahead.

这不是特朗普的问题，而是美国人民的问题，因为他们已经正式选举特朗普为他们的领导人和代言人。

@goching7738
China always wanted to maintain a stable relationship with America politically and economically but unfortunately US always seeks conflicts and impose all sorts of rulings to contain the rise of China. US administration would talk one thing and do another thing due to hegemonic and colonial mentality.

中国一直希望在政治和经济上与美国保持稳定的关系，但不幸的是美国总是寻求冲突并强加各种裁决来遏制中国的崛起。美国政府的霸权主义和殖民主义思维，说一套做一套。

@dczhen4358
Culturally, all the Chinese really want is prosperity, health and wealth. War and conflict? Not so much.

在文化上，中国人真正想要的是繁荣、健康和财富。战争和冲突？没那么多。

@dexter726
I think America does not have a colonial mentality. What America is still suffering from is the post-WWII illusion that it is the dominant economic power in the world. We are one of the few industrialized countries, and the largest, whose homeland came through that war unscathed, with a mighty defense industry that could quickly be converted to domestic purposes. That enabled the U.S. to have decades of post-war economic dominance. We are just now, in the last decade or so, wakening from our decades long binge and suffering a huge hangover.

我认为美国没有殖民心态。美国仍然受困于二战后的错觉，以为自己是世界上占主导地位的经济大国。当时我们是少数几个工业化国家之一，也是最大的工业化国家，我们的祖国毫发无损地度过了那场战争，我们拥有强大的可以迅速转为国内用途的国防工业，这使美国能够在战后数十年中保持经济主导地位。最近十多年来，我们刚刚从几十年的狂欢中清醒过来，正承受着巨大的宿醉。

@agrumpyoldman6484
There is no such thing as a one sided victory.
Once war is started both sides are bounded to suffered.

世界上没有一边倒的胜利。
一旦开战，双方都会受到伤害。

@andrespages5961
All countries need other countries' products.Seamless supply chain is the goal. Nobody wins in any economic war.

所有国家都需要其他国家的产品，任何经济战争都没有赢家。

@chrisinglis5631
America still exports goods? Could have fooled me. I don't remember the last time I saw anything that was made in the USA.

美国还在出口商品？你可能骗到我了，我都不记得上次看到美国制造的东西是什么时候了。

@hman72y
@chrisinglis5631 mostly supply army and build weapons so, they need some tension between countries

主要是供应军队和制造武器，所以，他们需要一些国家之间的紧张关系。

@Chairman-w7q
Bye bye Miss America eating pie, when you drive to the levy the levy will be dry…Trumps good ole boys will still be drinking whiskey and rye singing how did we vote for America to die? ��

再见了，吃馅饼的美国小姐，当你开车去征税的时候，税源已经枯竭了......特朗普的好孩子们还在喝着威士忌和黑麦酒，唱着我们是怎么投票让美国灭亡的？

@Jim-jh9bd
Wait for it the price of everything will go up because of Trump

等着吧，因为特朗普，所有东西都会涨价。

@deviouskris3012
@ I’m not American. So I can laugh at this. Price makes a huge difference to consumers. The US sells its local ( light sweet crude ) and imports cheaper ( sour ) crude to use for the American market. Those tariffs will apply to that and will result in an uptick in logistics costs. Which of course will be passed onto the consumer. Adding to the prices and leading to inflationary increases.
Combine this with the fact that India produces the majority of precursor drugs that are the backbone of US medicine. That will lead to skyrocketing medial costs. Once again, harming the lower to medium inclme brackets.

我不是美国人，所以我可以一笑置之。价格对消费者来说有很大的影响。美国出售其本土（轻质低硫原油）并进口更便宜的（酸性）原油供美国市场使用。这些关税将适用于此，并将导致物流成本上升。这当然会转嫁到消费者身上，让价格上涨并导致通货膨胀。
再加上印度生产的大部分前体药物都是美国医药的支柱，这将导致医疗成本飞涨，这将再次损害中低收入者的利益。

@MrGerdbrecht
@deviouskris3012 I am also not american. Only because something makes a huge difference doesn't mean it means everything. So if you have no argument to falsify my statement then i guess it stays.

我也不是美国人。仅仅因为某件事产生了巨大的影响并不意味着它意味着一切，如果你没有理由来证伪我的陈述，那我想就这样吧。

@deviouskris3012
@ your argument fails because prices as a derivative of inflation, were the largest cause of disgruntled voters. As recorded by exit polling data. Meaning that prices are considered the key issue for voters.
All you’ve done in try to down play the reality that price is a massive issue to US voters. Appealing to ‘nothing exists within a vacuum’, brings zero to the conversation. So either you’ve attempted to down play the issue, making yourself uniformed. Or you’ve gone down an irrelevant rabbit hole that adds nothing to the conservation.

你的论证失败了，因为价格作为通货膨胀的衍生品是导致选民不满的最大原因。根据出口民调数据的记录，这意味着物价被认为是选民的关键问题。
你所做的只是试图淡化价格对美国选民来说是个大问题的现实，诉诸'真空中不存在任何事物'的说法对谈话毫无帮助。所以，要么你试图淡化这个问题，让自己变得千篇一律。要么就是你钻进了一个无关紧要的兔子洞，对问题的解决毫无帮助。