网友脑洞大开发挥想象，告诉你如果拿破仑最终赢了，世界会发生什么

Magnus Johansson Studied History at Lund Universityupxed 1y
马格努斯·约翰松
隆德大学历史学专业  更新于1年前

The main difference in a long term French-dominated Europe is that German reunification possibly does not happen, and certainly not under Prussia which is uncertain to survive.
The winner is instead Bavaria which was France’s German proxy.
Apart from that? Austria goes into French orbit as a long term ally, with Russia more uncertain. Britain still dominates globally and stays out of Europe, like it mostly did in the 1800s.

若欧洲长期处于法国的主导之下，最主要的不同在于德意志统一很可能不会发生，更不用说由存亡未卜的普鲁士来主导统一进程了。
取而代之的赢家会是巴伐利亚——这个曾作为法国在德意志地区代理人的邦国。
除此之外呢？奥地利会成为法国的长期盟友，纳入法国的势力范围，而俄罗斯的立场则更加不明朗。英国仍会维持其全球霸权地位，并且像19世纪的大部分时候一样，置身于欧洲事务之外。

Napoleon probably dies in the early 1820s of stomach cancer just like historically, with an uncertain succession. A restored French monarchy is not at all impossible.
Needless to say the above has huge implications. It’s like an entire swarm of chaos butterflies.
Pictured: Maximilian I Joseph of Bavaria. He could have been a contender.

拿破仑大概率会和历史上一样，于19世纪20年代初死于胃癌，其继任问题也会悬而未决。法兰西君主制的复辟绝非没有可能。
毋庸置疑，上述种种会产生极为深远的影响，就像掀起了一连串的“混沌蝴蝶效应”。
配图：巴伐利亚的马克西米利安一世·约瑟夫。他本有可能成为逐鹿欧洲的强者。

Yoan Joseph Leleu Lives in France (1991–present)2y

约安·约瑟夫·勒勒现居法国（1991年至今）  2年前

“Russian Eastern fleet HQ in Hawaii put in high alx, USA base in Bougainville island nears completion in challenge to Russia naval dominance in the Pacific ”
Interesting brèves, today.
“Opinion: are we heading toward a unipolar world? The scary scenario that could shatter the post-1818 world order ”

“俄罗斯太平洋舰队驻夏威夷司令部进入高度戒备状态，美国驻布干维尔岛军事基地即将竣工，此举意在挑战俄罗斯在太平洋地区的海上霸权”
今日的简讯真是耐人寻味。
“评论：我们正走向单极世界吗？这一可怕图景或将粉碎1818年后的世界秩序 ”

Scary stuff indeed. Imagine if the Russian unx starts dictating their woke social-democrat worldviews to everyone else?
“Kyoto VII agreement finalized, as the Concert of Nations congratulates themselves: world temperature increase should stay under 1.5°C in 2100, according to scientific consensus”
First the made-up ozone layer crisis, now this. If the world was really warming, don’t you think we should be aware in 2023?

确实是令人不寒而栗的论调。试想一下，倘若俄罗斯联邦开始将其所谓“觉醒派”的社会民主主义世界观强加给其他所有国家，那会是怎样的局面？
“《京都议定书》第七次修正案正式敲定，各国联盟弹冠相庆：科学界一致认为，到2100年全球气温上升幅度有望控制在1.5℃以内”
先是捏造的臭氧层危机，现在又来这一套。如果全球真的在变暖，难道我们在2023年还察觉不到吗？

“Entertainment: discover the new trailer for “Kutuzov”, the grand epic directed by Ridley Scott about the most fascinating character of the Liberation Wars, who died in exile in 1820”
I know this Russian guy fought to keep serfdom and absolute monarchies in place, he’s a baddy, he's controversial even in Russia, but still… What a fascinating man! The only one able to crush Napoleon (at the battle of Smolensk), a defeat that pushed Bonaparte to radically change both his tactics and strategy. His first white hairs!
(Quora blurred the picture. Obviously. An older Napoleon is an existential threat to everyone)

“娱乐版块：雷德利·斯科特执导的史诗大片《库图佐夫》全新预告片重磅发布。影片主角是反法解放战争中极具传奇色彩的人物，他最终于1820年客死异乡”
我知道这个俄国人曾为维护农奴制和君主专制而战，他是个反派角色，即便在俄罗斯国内也颇具争议，但不可否认……他真是个充满魅力的人！他是唯一能击败拿破仑的将领（在斯摩棱斯克战役中），这场败仗迫使波拿巴彻底调整了自己的战术与战略。那一战，拿破仑愁得第一次生出了白发！
（问答平台奎拉刻意模糊了这张配图。原因显而易见——垂垂老矣的拿破仑形象，对所有人而言都是一种关乎存亡的威胁）

What would the world be like if Napoleon had won? Probably not too different from today. Certainly more multipolar.
It would have been a boost for America; a complete miracle for Russia; and globally the usual for western Europe. Expect four or more “superpowers” in 2023 (Russia, USA, Europe, China), and either exactly zero or lots of (tactical) nukes already used in war.
1818. Napoleon won. Don’t ask me how. But in that case it certainly means serfdom have been abolished in Russia, probably means the UK is out of money- sorry, of allies, which probably means they're busy losing a second war against the US Vietcongs.

如果拿破仑当年取胜，世界会变成什么样？或许与当下并无太大差异，只是多极化特征肯定会更加显著。
这会成为美国崛起的助推力，会是俄罗斯实现崛起的天赐良机，而对西欧来说，不过是历史惯性下的寻常发展。可以想见，到2023年全球会出现四个乃至更多的“超级大国”（俄罗斯、美国、欧洲、中国），而战术核武器要么从未在战争中投入使用，要么早已被大量使用。
1818年，拿破仑赢了。别问我具体怎么赢的。但在这种情况下，这无疑意味着俄国的农奴制已被废除；或许也意味着英国财力耗尽——抱歉，是盟友殆尽，这很可能会让他们忙着输掉与美国越共的第二次战争。

In other words, this scenario isn’t triggered so much by Napoleon himself (we only need to assume he got luckier, and/or that an unquestionable tactical defeat forced him to grow up and adapt successfully). This scenario is triggered by both the Americans and Russians believing a little more in universalism: the former viscerally wants to integrate Canada and unify the continent, the latter is somehow accepting Napoleon abolition of serfdom without turning into a giant guerilla right away.

换句话说，造就这一局面的并非拿破仑本人（我们只需假设他的运气更好，或是一场惨痛的战术失利迫使他成熟起来并成功做出调整）。真正的诱因在于美国人和俄国人都对普世主义多了几分信奉：前者打心底里想要吞并加拿大、完成美洲大陆的统一；后者则不知何故，接受了拿破仑废除农奴制的举措，且没有立刻掀起大规模的游击反抗。

1829: Napoleon dies somewhere in northern Kazakhstan, en route for China. Believe it or not, it was a Franco-British idea (Napoleon by land, Brits by sea, see you in Beijing) : “let’s get this Chinese silver together”. Divided over the new order, or eager to continue the people’s liberation from feudalism, European opinions wanted a common project. They found one everyone could agree on: China. But now Napoleon died in mysterious circumstances and the project was rolled back.

1829年，拿破仑在远征中国的途中，病逝于哈萨克斯坦北部某地。信不信由你，这场远征本是英法两国的共谋——计划是“拿破仑率陆军进发，英军从海路推进，咱们北京见”，目标是“联手榨取中国的白银”。当时的欧洲各国，要么在新秩序的构建上意见分歧，要么迫切希望继续推动民众挣脱封建枷锁，因此都渴望能有一个共同的目标。他们最终找到了一个各方都能认同的目标：中国。可如今拿破仑离奇身亡，这项远征计划也随之搁浅。

A series of diadochi wars ensues: the Marshall Wars. After all, most of Napoleon genius came from picking good and loyal commanders, and the whole situation looks like what Alexander the Great achieved. I mean, his third wife was a Persian princess from Transoxioana and all. A secular imperial (third!) wedding with a Mahometan girl, imagine the European aristocrats reaction. “Buonaparte did it again” (they liked to demean him by calling him the Corsican way). He kept marching too far, and now that he had an “accident”, half a dozen of popular generals (4 French and 1 Polish) stepped up to protect his heir and his conquests. A full series of wars happened, and Britain obviously gets involved (anybody controlling all the coasts again would be an existential threat). Europe is fragmentated again, but kept the Civil Code and the metric system. Austria reestablished limited serfdom. The Ottomans are breathing: this Franco-Persian wedding alliance was obviously targeting them.

随后，一连串继业者战争爆发，史称“元帅战争”。毕竟，拿破仑的过人之处很大程度上在于他善于挑选忠诚可靠的得力将领，而此时的局势，与当年亚历山大大帝去世后的情景如出一辙。要知道，拿破仑的第三任妻子可是出身于粟特地区的波斯公主。一场世俗帝国的皇室婚礼——还是第三次！——迎娶的竟是一位穆斯林女子，想想欧洲贵族们会作何反应吧。“波拿巴这小子又干出离谱事了”（他们总爱用“波拿巴”这个科西嘉姓氏来贬低他）。拿破仑的征程向来过于激进，如今他遭遇“意外”离世，六位深得人心的将领（四名法国人、一名波兰人）挺身而出，誓要保护他的继承人与打下的江山。大规模的战争就此爆发，英国显然也卷入其中（毕竟，任何势力若再度掌控欧洲所有海岸线，对英国而言都是关乎存亡的威胁）。欧洲再度陷入分裂，但《拿破仑法典》与公制度量衡被保留了下来。奥地利重新恢复了有限度的农奴制。奥斯曼帝国则松了一口气：这场法波联姻结盟，显然是以他们为目标的。
 
However, partitioned Russia doesn't get involved in the Marshall Wars. The non-Polish part doesn't, I mean. Poor, far away, busy managing the consequences of the abolition of feudalism. Parts of Russia are having revolutions every months, and local warlords build their own armies. It’s the wild East, and the following era left us with a popular genre of movies: the Easterns movies, with guns and nomad natives and robbed trains and silent guys on horses. Very popular. “The Good, The Bad, and the Tatar”… “For a fistful of tugriks”… “The Magnificent Seven”… “Rio Ïenisseï”? East of Moscow there's no law, East of Kazan there's no God.

然而，已然分裂的俄国并未卷入元帅战争。我指的是非波兰的那些区域。贫穷、偏远的它们，正忙着应对废除封建制度带来的一系列后果。俄国的部分地区每月都有革命爆发，各地军阀纷纷拥兵自重。这便是“狂野东部”，那个时代还催生了一类经久不衰的电影题材——“东方西部片”：枪火、游牧原住民、被劫的列车、沉默寡言的骑马客，一应俱全。这类影片风靡一时，比如《好人、坏人和鞑靼人》《为了一把图格里克》《豪勇七蛟龙》，还有《叶尼塞河畔的里约热内卢》？莫斯科以东，无法无天；喀山以东，天理难寻。

The wild East speaks a little more German and believes a little more in free entreprise every new decade. Lots of European migrants are settling from Ukraine to southern Siberia. Perhaps in an alternate reality, Germany would attempt to conquer the East? Like, twice? Far-fetched uchronias are always fun. But in our world, migrants from industrializing and overpopulated Europe have more choices. The great American Empire in the west (they think of themselves as true heir of Napoleon’s ideas, half of it was New France after all and a Québécois is President), from sea to shining sea, from Labrador to Mexico… and the other United States in the East, from sea to shining sea, from Finland universities to the Yiddish-speaking Russian islands in the Pacific. They’ve been more influenced by Sweden and the Rhine confederacy. Kyiv and New York look very much alike, in the 20th Century.

时光流转，每过十年，这片狂野东部的人们就会多懂一点德语，也多信奉一分自由企业精神。大批欧洲移民在从乌克兰到西伯利亚南部的广袤土地上定居。或许在另一个平行时空里，德国会试图征服这片东方土地？比如，发动两次东征？荒诞不羁的架空历史向来充满趣味。但在我们这个时空，来自正在工业化且人口过剩的欧洲移民，有着更多的选择。西边是庞大的美利坚帝国（他们自视为拿破仑思想的真正继承者，毕竟其国土的一半曾是新法兰西，而且现任总统还是法裔加拿大人），疆域从大西洋延伸到太平洋，从拉布拉多半岛一直到墨西哥……东边则是另一个“美利坚合众国”，同样横跨大洋，版图西起芬兰的各大高校，东至太平洋上那些讲意第绪语的俄罗斯岛屿。这个东方合众国深受瑞典与莱茵邦联的影响。到了20世纪，基辅与纽约的城市风貌已颇为相似。

Long story short, Alexis de Tocqueville in “Democracy in America” (1840) foresaw many things, for instance that the US and Russian were bound to become competing superpowers. But he wrongly assumed they would follow a similar path towards democracy. In Russia that path was blocked by serfdom, and once the cap popped it was a little late for half-measures: the Russian revolution happened while an authoritarian culture was still deeply rooted in the countryside. Much energies and human genius got wasted.

简而言之，亚历克西·德·托克维尔在其1840年出版的《论美国的民主》一书中，预见了诸多未来之事，例如美国与俄国注定会成为相互竞争的超级大国。但他错误地认为，两国会沿着相似的道路走向民主。在俄国，这条民主之路被农奴制阻断，而一旦这层枷锁被打破，再采取折中手段已然为时已晚：俄国革命爆发之际，专制文化在乡村地区仍根深蒂固，无数的人力物力与智慧才华就此被白白浪费。

A Napoleon victory would have, for better or worse, removed that cap sooner. A hypothetically more liberal Russia would have been a serious contender to both west-European colonialism and for the very young United States. Half of the talents emigrating in the Americas would have chosen Russia instead. There would have been World Wars too, I suppose, any war large enough is a World War. But no unipolar world at any point. To the great displeasure of Ayn Rand, a famous monarchist writer disgusted by Russian Czars wokeness and federal parliamentarism.

无论好坏，拿破仑的胜利本可以更早地摘除农奴制这一“枷锁”。一个假设中更为自由开明的俄国，本可以成为抗衡西欧殖民主义与新兴美国的强劲对手。那些原本移民美洲的人才中，或许有一半会转而选择俄国。我猜想，世界大战同样会爆发，毕竟任何规模足够大的战争，都可被称为世界大战。但在这个时空里，绝不会出现单极世界。这会让著名君主主义作家安·兰德大为不满——她对俄国沙皇的“开明化”与联邦议会制度向来嗤之以鼻。

Russia, the US and China compete to be the first to establish a base on Mars. The old international lunar base is now quite derelict (and regolith dust was a huge issue all along, 14 spationauts and cosmonauts dead over 20 years). Competition for resources increased lately. Little Europe prefers to target asteroid mining. The little British have a Venus program for cloud cities. Those guys have always been eccentric.
Few people care much about the Napoleonic wars, that's ancient History already.

如今，俄罗斯、美国与中国正竞相角逐，力争成为首个在火星建立基地的国家。老旧的国际月球基地早已荒废不堪（月壤尘埃始终是个棘手难题，二十年间已有14名航天员和宇航员因此丧生）。近来，各国对资源的争夺愈发激烈。体量不大的欧洲选择将小行星采矿作为发展方向；小小的英国则推出了金星计划，立志打造云端城市。英国人向来就是这般特立独行。
如今，没多少人还会在意拿破仑战争，那早已是尘封的远古历史。

PS: Oh and metropolitan France would perhaps be a little bigger. But in the grand scheme of History, that's pointless compared to affluent suburbs sprawling from Warsaw to Vladivostok, or relatively equal powers locked into solving climate change instead of the opposite.
PPS: it is an alternate scenario like any other, I went for what I thought was a logical outcome based on my knowledge of History (victorious Alexander the Great; the causes of imperialism; Tocqueville’s insights…). We could imagine other logical outcomes. I hope you enjoyed reading this one!

附言：对了，法国本土的面积或许会比现在大上一点。但在波澜壮阔的历史长河中，这根本不值一提——相比起从华沙绵延至符拉迪沃斯托克的繁华郊区，相比起势均力敌的各大强国同心协力应对气候变化而非相互掣肘，这点领土的扩张实在微不足道。
再附言：这只是一个和其他设定别无二致的架空历史场景。基于我对历史的认知（比如亚历山大大帝的胜利、帝国主义的成因、托克维尔的洞见等），我构思出了这个在我看来合乎逻辑的结局。我们当然也可以设想出其他合理的走向。希望你能喜欢这个故事！