如果美国入侵墨西哥，会发生什么事？
What would happen if the US invaded Mexico?
译文简介
如果美国入侵墨西哥，会发生什么事？
墨西哥军队会奋起抵抗，但他们的装备无法对抗美国的火力。然而，作为抵抗运动的核心力量，他们可以开展一场漫长而残酷的持久战。在此期间，美国国内势力也会向本国政府施压，要求其解释为何要实施如此疯狂的计划。
正文翻译
What would happen if the US invaded Mexico?
David Martinez Mexico City chilango. Amateur historian8y
大卫·马丁内斯 墨西哥城本地人，业余历史学家，8年前回答
Originally Answered: What would happen if a blood-lusted United States invaded Mexico?
原问题：若穷凶极恶的美国入侵墨西哥，将会引发何种后果？
The Hypothetical war would be easy. Mexico’s military is set up for counterinsurgency and for rescue operations and secondary defense of a rogue state attacking, like China, while the US does the heavy lifting according to the North American Leaders' Summit, which includes mutual security pacts for the US, Canada and Mexico. The hypothetical aftermath of the US breaking peace and alliance treaties and essentially going rogue, however - particularly as you mention a Nazi-germany like bloodlust - would very likely break the US in two, or collapse it completely into multiple warring states. This almost happened once already after a Mexico war - perhaps you’ve heard of an episode called the US Civil war?
这场假设中的战争打起来会很轻松。墨西哥军队的定位是开展反叛乱行动、执行救援任务，以及在遭遇失控的国家进攻时承担辅助防御工作，而根据北美领导人峰会的相关安排，美国会承担主要防务工作，该峰会包含美国、加拿大和墨西哥三国的共同安全协定。但一旦美国撕毁和平条约与同盟协议，彻底沦为“失控国家”，尤其是如你所描述的那般呈现出纳粹德国式的凶残好战，其后果极有可能是美国分裂为两个国家，或是彻底解体为多个相互交战的政权。这种情况其实在美墨战争后就险些发生——你或许听过美国内战这段历史吧？
Let’s see what happens in reality. Assume the US can win. Every. Single. Battle. Booh-yah. Congratulations, ya bully.
我们不妨看看实际情况。就算美国能打赢每一场战斗，好吧，恭喜这个恃强凌弱者。
But wait. First up, the US cannot hold that much territory, much less keep it peaceful. Iraq is still a problem, and so is Afghanistan. Iraq has 168K square miles and only 33 million people. Mexico is 140 million people (one for every two Americans), and 758K square miles. That’s over a third the size of all of Western Europe. Superimpose Mexico on top of Europe and Tijuana is in Scotland and the Yucatan ends up in Turkey. Chiapas covers a chunk of the Mediterranean and almost touches North Africa. Can the US conquer - and hold - all of Europe without help?
但先别着急下结论。首先，美国根本无力掌控如此广阔的领土，更别说维持当地的和平稳定了。伊拉克如今仍是个棘手的烂摊子，阿富汗也同样问题不断。伊拉克国土面积为16.8万平方英里，人口仅3300万。而墨西哥有1.4亿人口，相当于每两个美国人就对应一个墨西哥人，国土面积达75.8万平方英里，这一面积超过了西欧总面积的三分之一。若把墨西哥版图叠加到欧洲地图上就会发现，蒂华纳的位置相当于苏格兰，尤卡坦半岛会延伸至土耳其一带，恰帕斯州则会覆盖地中海的部分区域，甚至临近北非。连没有外援的情况下，美国都无法征服并掌控整个欧洲，更别说墨西哥了。
The US has trouble securing Iraq right now. And Afghanistan is not even done either - and those required alliances to keep “security” immediately after the invasion. Those troops would have to be recalled, losing all the Middle East wins. There are mountains in Mexico as tough as Afghanistan. Mexicans taking to the hills, like the Afghans, would give the US a constant headache until the Americans are thrown out. Remember, like the US, Mexico started as an insurgency. Every. Single. Mexican conflict has been asymmetrical guerilla warfare (heck, that’s what the drug war is in the first place, that’s why it’s so hard - now we’ve just multiplied the problem by sending the entire Mexican Army packing to the forests and mountains). That’s what Mexico knows best. And that’s a nightmare scenario for the US.
美国目前连伊拉克的安全都难以保障，阿富汗的局势更是尚未平息，而这些地区在被入侵初期，还需借助同盟力量才能勉强维持所谓的“安全”。一旦美国要入侵墨西哥，就不得不从这些地区调回军队，届时在中东地区取得的所有成果都将付诸东流。墨西哥境内有着和阿富汗一样险峻的山地地形，若墨西哥人像阿富汗人那样遁入山区开展抵抗运动，必将让美军疲于应对、头疼不已，直至被彻底驱逐。要知道，墨西哥和美国一样，其建国之初就源于反抗斗争，墨西哥参与的每一场冲突都采用了非对称游击战的形式。事实上，墨西哥的毒品战争本质上也是这类游击战，这正是其难以平息的原因所在。而如今若将整个墨西哥军队逼入山林，无疑会让问题雪上加霜。这种游击战是墨西哥最擅长的作战方式，对美国而言，这无疑是一场噩梦。
And if pacifying guerillas here this is enough of a problem:
要平定这些游击武装，本身就已是难如登天。
Now look at this map…
再看看这张地图……
Now we have the Latinos in the US to deal with, who would cause trouble. That’s 17% of the entire US population. Don’t just fear, expect revolts and riots, martial law, and possible government collapse, on any state orange and darker - which is almost all of them (George Friedman has done this exercise - he predicts a possible actual shooting war of the national guards of states like California, Nevada and New Mexico - and maybe Texas - against the US Federal troops, once a few of the governors decide to take matters into their own hands with their own state troopers). The war just hit home. Probably also with guerilla warfare. Whoops.
现在我们还得应对美国境内的拉丁裔群体，他们必将发起反抗。拉丁裔占美国总人口的17%，在所有标为橙色及更深色的州（几乎涵盖全美多数地区），不仅要警惕叛乱与骚乱的发生，更要做好军事管制乃至政府垮台的准备。乔治·弗里德曼曾做过相关推演，他预测一旦部分州长决定动用州警自行处理事务，加利福尼亚州、内华达州、新墨西哥州甚至得克萨斯州的国民警卫队，都有可能与美国联邦军队爆发正面武装冲突。这场战争就此蔓延至美国本土，而且很可能演变为游击战。这下麻烦大了。
Then there is Latin America and Mexico’s defense pacts. Some of the less America-Friendly countries would likely trigger their alliances and go to war with the US, particularly since they will feel they’re next (and probably would be right, given many countries in Latin America are in worse situations than Mexico). Given the mindshare Mexico has in Latin America, it could easily become a domino effect triggering the entire region into activating mutual defense pacts. Here’s a map of the Rio mutual defense pact, which the US would be breaking:
此外，拉丁美洲各国与墨西哥还签有防务协定。一些对美国并不友好的国家，很可能会启动同盟条款向美国宣战，尤其是它们会认为自己将是下一个目标——考虑到拉丁美洲许多国家的处境比墨西哥更为艰难，这种担忧很可能成真。凭借墨西哥在拉丁美洲的影响力，这极易引发多米诺骨牌效应，促使整个地区启动共同防务协定。以下是《里约共同防务条约》的相关地图，而美国的入侵行为将违反该条约：
Note Mexico is in Cyan, because it withdrew in 2004. But it did so in order to pursue individual pacts with many of these same countries. I believe Mexico and Spain also have a mutual defense pact, which brings in the European unx - and NATO - into this web of treaties. Remember that the attacking country goes at it alone, so the US would not be able to count on NATO.
注：墨西哥以青色标注，因其于2004年退出了该条约，但退出的目的是与该条约中的多个国家单独签订防务协定。此外，墨西哥与西班牙之间也存在共同防务协定，这将使欧盟乃至北约都卷入这一复杂的条约网络之中。需注意的是，侵略国将陷入孤立无援的境地，因此美国无法指望北约提供任何支持。
At this point, we just got ourselves a World War Three scenario that includes the EU (or at least parts of it that, when attacked, will trigger other treaties) against the US. Remember, World war 1 started with the simple assassination of an archduke triggering a police operation that triggered a web of mutual defense pacts. This is no different.
至此，我们已然面临第三次世界大战的风险，欧盟（或至少其部分成员国，一旦遭到攻击将触发其他条约）将与美国对立。要知道，第一次世界大战的爆发，最初只是源于一场大公遇刺事件，随后引发了警方行动，进而触发了一系列相互关联的共同防务协定，如今的局势与此如出一辙。
So now the bloodlust has turned a conflict of 758K square miles into 7.412 million square miles, plus a lot of the US itself. Sure, militarily the US can win any one shooting battle (except against its own National Guard, in which they’d win the war but lose many battles). But demographically the US already lost because there is no way in hell they can pacify this much territory and deal with these many angry people, from the US Southwest to Patagonia (about 680 million people).
就这样，美国的嗜血好战将一场涉及75.8万平方英里的冲突，升级为覆盖741.2万平方英里的大战，且美国本土的大片区域也将卷入其中。诚然，从军事角度而言，美国或许能赢得任何一场单独的武装冲突（与本国国民警卫队交战除外——即便最终能赢得战争，也将在诸多战役中遭遇惨败）。但从人口规模来看，美国早已注定失败，因为它根本无法平定如此广阔的领土，也无力应对从美国西南部到巴塔哥尼亚地区（约6.8亿人口）的海量愤怒民众。
Not to mention that, if the war were to go Pan-American, there is a guarantee their other horrified friends and allies, decrying the New American Nazism and calling the globe for help in the Latin American freedom project - people such as Russia, the EU (Spain being bound by treaty and history to help Mexico, and France only by history) and possibly China - would get involved. There’s lots of interests there for them.
更不用说，若战争蔓延至整个美洲，其他对美国行径感到震惊的国家和盟友——比如俄罗斯、欧盟（西班牙受条约与历史渊源约束必须援助墨西哥，法国则仅受历史因素影响），甚至可能包括中国——必将纷纷介入。它们会谴责美国的“新纳粹主义”行径，并呼吁全球支持拉丁美洲的自由事业，毕竟这些国家在该地区有着诸多利益诉求。
Heck, given the modern factories they all have in Mexico alone, they may intervene in the initial stages of the conflict, turning things very nuclear very quick. Remember, it takes six minutes for a nuke from a sub-launch to reach a target, and Russia has lots and lots of subs, and China also has a few. Initial targets for those nukes would be East coast American cities. The original 13 and the midwest just came into play. Hope we’ve kept up the duck and cover exercises, not that they’ll work anyway.
事实上，仅就这些国家在墨西哥境内拥有的现代化工厂而言，它们就可能在冲突初期便介入其中，导致局势迅速升级为核战争。要知道，潜射核武器抵达目标仅需6分钟，而俄罗斯拥有大量核潜艇，中国也具备一定的核潜艇力量。这些核武器的首要打击目标将是美国东海岸城市，最初的13个殖民地州以及中西部地区都将被卷入战火。但愿人们还在坚持练习“卧倒掩护”动作，尽管这其实毫无用处。
It would be silly to drop nuclear weapons on Latin America (which is nuclear free, largely thanks to the Mexicans) - hit the unarmed ones and guarantee nuclear retaliation from their allies to what effect, exactly? If it went nuclear, the nuclear powers would target each other first, cancelling each other out. There may never be those “secondary attacks” on Latin America and if there are it would be only a few - again, territory size.
向拉丁美洲投放核武器是极为愚蠢的行为——该地区本质上是无核区（这在很大程度上要归功于墨西哥的努力）。攻击手无寸铁的地区，只会招致其盟友的核报复，这样做究竟能达到什么目的？一旦爆发核战争，核大国必将首先相互瞄准，最终同归于尽。拉丁美洲或许根本不会遭遇所谓的“二次打击”，即便有，也只会是极少数——归根结底还是受领土规模的影响。
But even if it doesn’t go nuclear because there is no need, it would be impossible to stop bicoastal drops from all of Europe to unknown Latin American destinations (not to mention the distraction of the US being attacked at its own bases in places like Germany, assuming they didn’t recall the troops before and gave up European stability in order to manage this fudge-up). The US can’t protect miles and miles of coastline.
但即便因无需动用核武器而未爆发核战争，也无法阻止从欧洲各地向拉丁美洲未知目的地发起的双海岸突袭（更不用说，若美国此前未撤回驻德等地区的军队，为了收拾这场烂摊子而放弃欧洲稳定，其海外基地还将遭受攻击，进而分散自身兵力）。美国根本无力保卫绵延数千英里的海岸线。
One thing is for sure - Mexico would survive in some form as a discernible entity, as it’s not just a political unit, it’s a millenary culture. And they weren’t the aggressor, so they’d have the political capital dividends of being attacked. At least a few Mexican statesmen would be created who would shape international thought for years to come.
有一点可以肯定——墨西哥将以某种可辨识的实体形式存续下去，因为它不仅是一个政治实体，更是拥有千年历史的文明。而且墨西哥并非侵略方，因此将享有被侵略国的政治资本红利。至少会涌现出一批能够影响未来数年国际思潮的墨西哥政治家。
The “blood-lusted” US, however, that’s not so clear. Germany certainly didn’t survive it, with all its might it got invaded after it spread itself too thin and got broken up in two. And for all the credit the US takes for it, the Russians did much of the heavy lifting on the East after their Winter took care of some things. This would be no different other than a much larger territory to spread oneself thin on.
然而，这个“嗜血好战”的美国能否存续，就很难说了。当年的德国即便实力雄厚，最终也未能幸免——由于战线拉得过长而遭到入侵，最终分裂为两个国家。尽管美国常常将击败德国的功劳揽在自己身上，但事实上，在苏联的冬季战役扭转战局后，东线的大部分重任都是由苏联承担的。如今的美国也将面临同样的命运，区别仅在于其需要投入兵力的领土范围更为广阔。
I can totally see the US splitting in two or more nations as a result of the domino effect of an ill-advised “Mexico campaign”. Particularly if the conflict becomes global and nuclear weapons become involved.
我完全可以预见，这场不明智的“墨西哥战役”引发的多米诺骨牌效应，将导致美国分裂为两个或更多国家。尤其是在冲突升级为全球性战争且涉及核武器的情况下，这种结局将更有可能发生。
Ted Neward B.A. in International Relations, University of California, Davis (Graduated 1995)8y
泰德·纽瓦德 加州大学戴维斯分校国际关系学士（1995年毕业），8年前回答
Actually, this was the subject of a paper I wrote in college; not exactly the same subject, but close to it. (With the presumptive signing of NAFTA, I was asked to write a “position paper” on advising the POTUS what to do in the event of a Mexican uprising taking greater hold and turning into a full-blown rebellion/revolution.)
事实上，这是我大学时期一篇论文的主题——虽不完全一致，但高度相关。当时北美自由贸易协定即将签署，我被要求撰写一份政策立场文件，就墨西哥起义若进一步扩大并演变为全面叛乱/革命时，应如何为美国总统提供建议。
Truth is, if the US military descended on Mexico in full battle array, there is absolutely nothing the Mexican military could do to stop them. The United States has roughly 20 or so active US army divisions; from Wikipedia, the Mexican army consists of roughly nine infantry brigades. (Divisions usually are made up of several brigades.) So already, without any further analysis, the Mexicans have roughly a 6-to-1 disadvantage in manpower. Couple with this that the US Army has been engaged in large-scale exercises since the 1950’s (as part of its preparation for combat against the USSR) and most recently developed a ton of combat experience from its campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, contrasted with the Mexican Army’s utility against more localized concerns (such as against the drug lords), and we again see a major disparity in full-scale combat potential.
事实上，若美国军队倾巢而出进攻墨西哥，墨西哥军队根本无力阻挡。美国约有20个现役陆军师，而根据维基百科数据，墨西哥军队仅由约9个步兵旅组成（师通常由多个旅构成）。无需进一步分析便能看出，墨西哥在兵力上已面临约6:1的劣势。此外，美国陆军自20世纪50年代起就持续开展大规模军事演习（作为对抗苏联的备战一部分），近期更从伊拉克和阿富汗战争中积累了丰富的实战经验；而墨西哥军队的主要任务是应对本土局部问题（如打击毒枭），两者在全面作战能力上存在巨大差距。
There are several things that would tip things back towards Mexico’s favor; one, the US could hardly draw all of its forces back from all over the world without abandoning commitments worldwide, so the 60-to-9 advantage is not likely to be realistic. Two, such an invasion would be swiftly and loudly condemned by the rest of the world as blatant imperialism, and the US would see numerous nations flock to Mexico’s banner and demand withdrawal or face a declaration of war, which would again change the balance of power significantly. Three, although it’s possible many Mexican citizens would see being part of the US as a positive thing, it’s far more likely that nationalism and pride of country would kick in and create a significant partisan presence, and make holding Mexican territory all but impossible without significant numbers of casualties against US soldiers and support personnel.
不过有几个因素会扭转局势对墨西哥有利：其一，美国若不从全球撤回所有兵力，就无法形成上述兵力优势，而撤回兵力意味着背弃全球承诺，因此6:1的兵力差距并不现实；其二，这种侵略行为将被世界各国迅速且强烈地谴责为公然的帝国主义行径，众多国家会纷纷支持墨西哥，要求美国撤军，否则将宣战，这将显著改变力量平衡；其三，尽管部分墨西哥民众可能认为加入美国是好事，但更有可能激发民族主义情绪和国家自豪感，催生大规模抵抗力量，美国若想占领墨西哥领土，必将付出惨重的人员伤亡代价，几乎难以实现。
Lastly, though, why would the US bother? The current arrangement of economic ties and cooperation benefits the US quite nicely, and there is no natural resource in abundance enough to draw the US’s eye enough to merit a military conquest. Were there to be an uprising/revolution, or if Mexico were to fall into chaos, that would present an entirely different scenario, but Mexico is actually pretty stable as a nation, and the US would like nothing better than to see its borders solidified by the presence of friendly, stable neighbors (which they have got in Mexico and Canada).
最后，美国为何要自寻麻烦？当前的经济联系与合作安排已让美国受益匪浅，墨西哥并无足够丰富的自然资源值得美国发动军事征服。若墨西哥发生起义/革命或陷入混乱，那将是另一番情景，但事实上墨西哥作为国家相当稳定，美国最希望看到的是边境由友好、稳定的邻国（即墨西哥和加拿大）守护。
In fact, it’s far more likely that the US would propose a “North American Unified Government” pact, essentially unifying all three as the “United States of North America”, accomplishing a unification of the continent through diplomatic prowess, rather than conquest. (Of course, the chances of that happening are pretty low, given how much both nations are wary and leery of the US.)
事实上，美国更有可能提出“北美统一政府”协定，通过外交手段而非征服，将美、加、墨三国统一为“北美合众国”。（当然，考虑到加拿大和墨西哥对美国的警惕与疑虑，这种可能性相当低。）
Daniel Osornío Lived in Mexico City9y
丹尼尔·奥索尼奥 曾居住于墨西哥城，9年前回答
Originally Answered: If Mexico were attacked, what would the U.S. do?
原问题：若墨西哥遭到攻击，美国会如何应对？
Well first of... The first question most Mexican citizens will ask Like out of all countries Why us? Look believe it or not. Mexico is a Vital ally to the USA.
首先……大多数墨西哥民众会问的第一个问题是：在众多国家中，为什么偏偏是我们？不管你信不信，墨西哥是美国至关重要的盟友。
Number 1. Geography. If the enemy country decided to attack Mexico. The USA would be worried about 3 main things. California. Texas. And pretty much trade routes and such along the border. Why?? Well because both of those states GDP combines Is pretty much 3.373 TRILLION dollars, and add the fact that BILLIONS of dollars go through the border. Whether it be goods, business etc. You can see if they managed to hit the major cities in those 2 states and the enemy damages the northern front of Mexico. You'll have the USA really weakened as well as Mexico.
第一，地理位置。若敌国决定进攻墨西哥，美国将主要担忧三件事：加利福尼亚州、得克萨斯州，以及边境沿线的贸易路线等。为什么？因为这两个州的GDP总和约为3.373万亿美元，且每天有数十亿美元的货物、商业往来等通过边境。不难想象，若敌人袭击这两个州的主要城市并破坏墨西哥北部边境，美国和墨西哥都将遭受重创。
Now let's say the enemy managed to weaken Mexico. Well you bet that the USA would have all units in the border and in the waters to delay and attack the enemy forces.
假设敌人成功削弱了墨西哥的实力，美国必定会在边境及周边海域部署所有兵力，以牵制并打击敌军。
Now obviously Mexico is part of NAFTA and the Organization of American States (OAS/ pretty much all of the Americas.) So you'll have at least USA and Canada providing some type of military support. While as well the rest of the Americas (including Canada and USA) give some type of aid (economic etc.)
显然，墨西哥是北美自由贸易协定和美洲国家组织（涵盖几乎所有美洲国家）的成员。因此，至少美国和加拿大会提供某种形式的军事支持，而其他美洲国家（包括美加）也会提供经济等方面的援助。
The US will come to help Mexico at any costs. Mexico helped us in WW1 and WW2 While they didn't fight as much as the US did. Mexico pretty much gives money and materials the US has needed for their battles.
美国将不惜一切代价援助墨西哥。墨西哥在一战和二战中都曾给予美国支持——尽管参战规模不及美国，但提供了美国作战所需的资金和物资。
So in the end. The US would react in a way that it'll do it's best to defend its borders and waters that it shares with Mexico. While giving aid to Mexico in any way. If Mexico is down. You bet the US will go down as well... Both depend on each other so heavily economically.
因此，归根结底，美国的应对方式将是全力保卫与墨西哥共享的边境和海域，同时以各种方式援助墨西哥。若墨西哥倒下，美国也必将受到重创——两国在经济上相互依存度极高。
David Jackson7y
大卫·杰克逊 7年前回答
Originally Answered: What would happen if the USA went to war with Mexico?
原问题：若美国与墨西哥开战，将会发生什么？
This reminds me of a question posed to an American Jew and was asked what would happen if Israel and the USA went to war, whose side would you be on? He answered that in that case America wouldn’t be America or Israel wouldn’t be Israel. What that means that in order for these two countries to go to war with each other, one (or possibly both) of these countries would have to be so radically different from what they currently are culturally (and in other areas) that they could hardly be considered the same country. For the US to go to war with Mexico, one or both of these countries would have to be so very different from their current situation for war to be declared.
这让我想起一个问美国犹太人的问题：如果以色列和美国开战，你会站在哪一边？他回答说，若真到那一步，要么美国不再是美国，要么以色列不再是以色列。这意味着，要让这两个国家兵戎相见，其中一方（或双方）必须在文化等诸多方面发生根本性转变，以至于不再是我们如今所认知的那个国家。同样，美国与墨西哥要爆发战争，也需要其中一方或双方的现状发生巨大改变，否则战争根本无从谈起。
Jon Hill One time political science major, pays attention to politics4y
乔恩·希尔 曾主修政治学，关注政治动态，4年前回答
Originally Answered: What would happen if America invaded Mexico?
原问题：若美国入侵墨西哥，将会发生什么？
What would happen if America invaded Mexico? We’d get our asses kicked by all those “insurgents” at the border. No? Yeah, no. If we just up and decided to “invade Mexico,” we would not run into much in the way of irresistible resistance and could probably take Mexico City in a couple of days. At that point, we’d be pretty much like the dog that caught the car: “What do we do with in now?” Of course, one would have to wonder why we would even do such a thing, because without clear and convincing provocation that could not be settled with some action(s) short of full-scale invasion, we would become the pariah of the world, lower on the list that North Korea, Syria, or Turkmenistan. I cannot think of a nation that wouldn’t immediately recall their ambassadors, and can think of a few (Russia, China, and virtually every Central and South American nation) that might actively intervene on the side of Mexico.
美国入侵墨西哥会怎样？我们会被边境那些“叛乱分子”打得落花流水？不？确实不会。如果我们突然决定“入侵墨西哥”，初期不会遇到太多无法抵挡的抵抗，或许几天内就能攻占墨西哥城。但到那时，我们就会陷入“狗咬到汽车后不知如何是好”的困境。当然，人们不禁会问，我们为什么要做这样的事？因为如果没有明确且令人信服的挑衅，且这种挑衅无法通过全面入侵之外的方式解决，美国将沦为世界公敌，地位甚至低于朝鲜、叙利亚或土库曼斯坦。我想不出有哪个国家不会立即召回大使，反而能想到一些国家（俄罗斯、中国，以及几乎所有中美洲和南美洲国家）可能会积极支持墨西哥并进行干预。
One “positive”? International trade with the US would almost certainly grind to a halt, if only temporarily, so we would finally be able to build all the factories we need with full US employment pursuant to supplying ourselves with everything we need. And toasters would cost $500, a pair of Nikes $1500, and family night at Burger King would run you $300–400. And bananas, grapes, pineapples, lemons/limes, watermelons, apples, and many other staple foods would virtually disappear from our shelves (yeah, we grow a lot of some of these here, but not nearly enough to supply ourselves at current rates of consumption).
一个“好处”？与美国的国际贸易几乎肯定会陷入停滞（即便只是暂时的），这样我们最终就能建立所有需要的工厂，实现全民就业，自给自足所需的一切物资。但随之而来的是，烤面包机售价会涨到500美元，一双耐克鞋1500美元，全家去汉堡王吃一顿要花300-400美元。香蕉、葡萄、菠萝、柠檬/青柠、西瓜、苹果以及许多其他主食也将从货架上几乎消失（没错，我们本土确实种植其中一些作物，但远远无法满足当前的消费需求）。
It would be a war we would win, but a country (ours) we would lose. Badly.
这场战争我们或许能打赢，但我们的国家将付出惨重代价，一败涂地。
Wes Frank Masters in American History from Northwestern University3y
韦斯·弗兰克 西北大学美国史硕士，3年前回答
A lot of death and misery and pain to no good purpose. The United States occupied Northern and Central Mexico back in 1846 and 1847. The Americans had had a vague ambition of settling all of North America west from the Mississippi to the Pacific (“Manifest Destiny”) but most had no grudge against or interest in Mexico. Southern slaveholders, however, wanted Texas to found more slave states. Die-hard Manifest Destiny believers also wanted California for the United States. Because Mexico was virtually falling apart by 1836, its northern provinces seemed ripe for the picking. And there was the added factor that, if the United States didn’t get them, the British would.
这将是一场毫无意义、充满死亡、苦难与伤痛的战争。早在1846年至1847年，美国就曾占领过墨西哥北部和中部地区。当时美国人怀有一个模糊的野心，即定居在从密西西比河到太平洋的整个北美西部地区（“天定命运论”），但大多数人对墨西哥并无怨恨或兴趣。然而，南方奴隶主希望通过得克萨斯建立更多蓄奴州，坚定的“天定命运论”信徒也希望将加利福尼亚纳入美国版图。由于墨西哥在1836年前后几乎濒临瓦解，其北部省份被认为已到了可被轻易夺取的地步。此外还有一个因素是，若美国不拿下这些地区，英国也会出手。
In 1847, therefore, the United States had invaded and conquered much of Mexico. However, the only provinces the Polk administration was sure it wanted were Texas, New Mexico, and California, all of which had scattered Mexican populations of a few tens of thousands. There were factions in Washington who wanted to annex more Mexican provinces. Nicholas Trist, who was in Mexico to negotiate a peace treaty under President James K. Polk’s instructions, saw that trying to garrison and control the more densely populated parts of Mexico would awaken Mexican resistance, bring about a bloody guerrilla war, and possibly bring about a military disaster. He also knew, seeing beyond the ambitions of the politicians favoring more annexations, that most Americans had no desire to rule or absorb large populations of foreigners and certainly did not want to try to assimilate millions of Mexican peasants cursed by what they saw as a corrupt, class-ridden, decadent culture. Trist quickly got a signed treaty to Washington to Polk “purchasing” only California and New Mexico and ending the Mexican claim on Texas. Polk, who had gotten the imperial bug himself, was angry, but had to get the peace treaty through congress before his political support weakened. The war was over and Mexico and the United States have been at peace for 168 years.
因此，1847年美国入侵并征服了墨西哥的大部分地区。然而，波尔克政府明确想要的只有得克萨斯、新墨西哥和加利福尼亚，这些地区的墨西哥人口仅为数万人，且分布零散。华盛顿有部分派系希望吞并更多墨西哥省份，但奉詹姆斯·K·波尔克总统之命在墨西哥谈判和平条约的尼古拉斯·特里斯特意识到，试图在墨西哥人口更密集的地区驻军并实施控制，必将激起墨西哥人的抵抗，引发血腥的游击战，甚至可能导致军事灾难。他还看透了那些支持扩大吞并的政客的野心，深知大多数美国人并不愿意统治或吸纳大量外国人，更不愿试图同化数百万墨西哥农民——他们认为这些农民深受腐败、阶级分化且腐朽的文化所困。特里斯特迅速将一份已签署的条约送往华盛顿呈给波尔克，条约中仅“购买”加利福尼亚和新墨西哥，并终止墨西哥对得克萨斯的领土主张。波尔克本人也怀有帝国野心，对此感到愤怒，但为避免政治支持减弱，不得不推动国会通过该和平条约。战争就此结束，墨西哥和美国在此后的168年里一直保持和平。
That long peace would have been unheard of in Africa, Europe, or Asia. Trist, a great American hero, kept the poison of 19th Century colonialism from infecting the United States, and his strategic judgement was sound. France invaded Mexico only fourteen years later and Mexico fought them for three years, overthrowing their puppet emperor, Maximillian, two years after that. The United States, in theory, could have invaded and conquered Mexico at any time after 1865, but Trist was, again, correct. Pretty much no one in the United States wanted to rule Mexico, and no one in Mexico wanted to be ruled by the United States.
这种长期和平在非洲、欧洲或亚洲是前所未有的。特里斯特是伟大的美国英雄，他阻止了19世纪殖民主义的毒瘤侵蚀美国，其战略判断极为明智。仅仅14年后，法国入侵墨西哥，墨西哥与之抗争了三年，并在两年后推翻了法国扶植的傀儡皇帝马克西米利安。理论上，1865年后美国本可以在任何时候入侵并征服墨西哥，但特里斯特的判断再次得到印证：几乎没有美国人愿意统治墨西哥，也没有墨西哥人愿意被美国统治。
If some emergency situation called for 21st Century America to invade Mexico, it would be solely for the purpose solving some problem or another: a governmental collapse, a drug cartel trying to take over a province, a foreign-backed coup. No matter what, Mexicans would be fighting back, because they love their country just like Americans do. American air and ground troops could capture Mexican cities just south of the border, but they would be stuck with trying to govern them. In theory, the Americans could also take Veracruz or Mexico City., but the Mexicans would be fighting back and the United States does not have the million or so hardened mercenaries it would take to enforce an occupation government.
如果21世纪的美国因某种紧急情况不得不入侵墨西哥，其唯一目的只能是解决特定问题：如墨西哥政府垮台、贩毒集团企图夺取某省控制权、外国支持的政变等。但无论何种情况，墨西哥人都会奋起反抗，因为他们和美国人一样热爱自己的国家。美国的空中和地面部队或许能攻占边境以南的墨西哥城市，但随后将陷入治理困境。理论上，美国也可能拿下韦拉克鲁斯或墨西哥城，但墨西哥人的抵抗不会停止，而美国并不具备维持一个占领政府所需的约一百万精锐雇佣军。
The Mexican army would fight, but it is not equipped to handle American firepower. As the core of a resistance movement, however, it could fight a long, brutal campaign. And during that campaign, forces in the United States would be besieging their own government to find out why they had undertaken such an insane project.
墨西哥军队会奋起抵抗，但他们的装备无法对抗美国的火力。然而，作为抵抗运动的核心力量，他们可以开展一场漫长而残酷的持久战。在此期间，美国国内势力也会向本国政府施压，要求其解释为何要实施如此疯狂的计划。
Tom Lewis Studied at Arizona State University8y
汤姆·刘易斯 曾就读于亚利桑那州立大学，8年前回答
Originally Answered: What would happen if a blood-lusted United States invaded Mexico?
原问题：若穷凶极恶的美国入侵墨西哥，将会发生什么？
The USA could easily defeat the Mexican armed forces. If there was a prolonged insurgency the USA would be a big loser in the occupation. Mexico is a lot bigger and more geographically challenging than Iraq. The number of troops needed to pacify over 100 million people would be massive. What if Mexicans within the USA joined in an insurgency? What if large numbers of chicanos fed up with decades of being treated as second class citizens joined in? The USA could find itself fighting two insurgent wars. One in places like Chicago, Dallas, NYC, Phoenix and LA.
美国可以轻易击败墨西哥武装部队，但如果爆发长期叛乱，美国在占领过程中将成为最大输家。墨西哥的国土面积比伊拉克大得多，地理环境也更为复杂。要平定超过1亿人口，所需的兵力将是天文数字。如果美国境内的墨西哥人加入叛乱怎么办？如果大量因数十年来被视为二等公民而心怀不满的奇卡诺人（墨西哥裔美国人）加入叛乱怎么办？美国可能会发现自己陷入两场叛乱战争——(除了墨西哥本土，另一场)在芝加哥、达拉斯、纽约、凤凰城和洛杉矶等地展开。
David Martinez Mexico City chilango. Amateur historian8y
大卫·马丁内斯 墨西哥城本地人，业余历史学家，8年前回答
Originally Answered: What would happen if a blood-lusted United States invaded Mexico?
原问题：若穷凶极恶的美国入侵墨西哥，将会引发何种后果？
The Hypothetical war would be easy. Mexico’s military is set up for counterinsurgency and for rescue operations and secondary defense of a rogue state attacking, like China, while the US does the heavy lifting according to the North American Leaders' Summit, which includes mutual security pacts for the US, Canada and Mexico. The hypothetical aftermath of the US breaking peace and alliance treaties and essentially going rogue, however - particularly as you mention a Nazi-germany like bloodlust - would very likely break the US in two, or collapse it completely into multiple warring states. This almost happened once already after a Mexico war - perhaps you’ve heard of an episode called the US Civil war?
这场假设中的战争打起来会很轻松。墨西哥军队的定位是开展反叛乱行动、执行救援任务，以及在遭遇失控的国家进攻时承担辅助防御工作，而根据北美领导人峰会的相关安排，美国会承担主要防务工作，该峰会包含美国、加拿大和墨西哥三国的共同安全协定。但一旦美国撕毁和平条约与同盟协议，彻底沦为“失控国家”，尤其是如你所描述的那般呈现出纳粹德国式的凶残好战，其后果极有可能是美国分裂为两个国家，或是彻底解体为多个相互交战的政权。这种情况其实在美墨战争后就险些发生——你或许听过美国内战这段历史吧？
Let’s see what happens in reality. Assume the US can win. Every. Single. Battle. Booh-yah. Congratulations, ya bully.
我们不妨看看实际情况。就算美国能打赢每一场战斗，好吧，恭喜这个恃强凌弱者。
But wait. First up, the US cannot hold that much territory, much less keep it peaceful. Iraq is still a problem, and so is Afghanistan. Iraq has 168K square miles and only 33 million people. Mexico is 140 million people (one for every two Americans), and 758K square miles. That’s over a third the size of all of Western Europe. Superimpose Mexico on top of Europe and Tijuana is in Scotland and the Yucatan ends up in Turkey. Chiapas covers a chunk of the Mediterranean and almost touches North Africa. Can the US conquer - and hold - all of Europe without help?
但先别着急下结论。首先，美国根本无力掌控如此广阔的领土，更别说维持当地的和平稳定了。伊拉克如今仍是个棘手的烂摊子，阿富汗也同样问题不断。伊拉克国土面积为16.8万平方英里，人口仅3300万。而墨西哥有1.4亿人口，相当于每两个美国人就对应一个墨西哥人，国土面积达75.8万平方英里，这一面积超过了西欧总面积的三分之一。若把墨西哥版图叠加到欧洲地图上就会发现，蒂华纳的位置相当于苏格兰，尤卡坦半岛会延伸至土耳其一带，恰帕斯州则会覆盖地中海的部分区域，甚至临近北非。连没有外援的情况下，美国都无法征服并掌控整个欧洲，更别说墨西哥了。
The US has trouble securing Iraq right now. And Afghanistan is not even done either - and those required alliances to keep “security” immediately after the invasion. Those troops would have to be recalled, losing all the Middle East wins. There are mountains in Mexico as tough as Afghanistan. Mexicans taking to the hills, like the Afghans, would give the US a constant headache until the Americans are thrown out. Remember, like the US, Mexico started as an insurgency. Every. Single. Mexican conflict has been asymmetrical guerilla warfare (heck, that’s what the drug war is in the first place, that’s why it’s so hard - now we’ve just multiplied the problem by sending the entire Mexican Army packing to the forests and mountains). That’s what Mexico knows best. And that’s a nightmare scenario for the US.
美国目前连伊拉克的安全都难以保障，阿富汗的局势更是尚未平息，而这些地区在被入侵初期，还需借助同盟力量才能勉强维持所谓的“安全”。一旦美国要入侵墨西哥，就不得不从这些地区调回军队，届时在中东地区取得的所有成果都将付诸东流。墨西哥境内有着和阿富汗一样险峻的山地地形，若墨西哥人像阿富汗人那样遁入山区开展抵抗运动，必将让美军疲于应对、头疼不已，直至被彻底驱逐。要知道，墨西哥和美国一样，其建国之初就源于反抗斗争，墨西哥参与的每一场冲突都采用了非对称游击战的形式。事实上，墨西哥的毒品战争本质上也是这类游击战，这正是其难以平息的原因所在。而如今若将整个墨西哥军队逼入山林，无疑会让问题雪上加霜。这种游击战是墨西哥最擅长的作战方式，对美国而言，这无疑是一场噩梦。
And if pacifying guerillas here this is enough of a problem:
要平定这些游击武装，本身就已是难如登天。
Now look at this map…
再看看这张地图……
Now we have the Latinos in the US to deal with, who would cause trouble. That’s 17% of the entire US population. Don’t just fear, expect revolts and riots, martial law, and possible government collapse, on any state orange and darker - which is almost all of them (George Friedman has done this exercise - he predicts a possible actual shooting war of the national guards of states like California, Nevada and New Mexico - and maybe Texas - against the US Federal troops, once a few of the governors decide to take matters into their own hands with their own state troopers). The war just hit home. Probably also with guerilla warfare. Whoops.
现在我们还得应对美国境内的拉丁裔群体，他们必将发起反抗。拉丁裔占美国总人口的17%，在所有标为橙色及更深色的州（几乎涵盖全美多数地区），不仅要警惕叛乱与骚乱的发生，更要做好军事管制乃至政府垮台的准备。乔治·弗里德曼曾做过相关推演，他预测一旦部分州长决定动用州警自行处理事务，加利福尼亚州、内华达州、新墨西哥州甚至得克萨斯州的国民警卫队，都有可能与美国联邦军队爆发正面武装冲突。这场战争就此蔓延至美国本土，而且很可能演变为游击战。这下麻烦大了。
Then there is Latin America and Mexico’s defense pacts. Some of the less America-Friendly countries would likely trigger their alliances and go to war with the US, particularly since they will feel they’re next (and probably would be right, given many countries in Latin America are in worse situations than Mexico). Given the mindshare Mexico has in Latin America, it could easily become a domino effect triggering the entire region into activating mutual defense pacts. Here’s a map of the Rio mutual defense pact, which the US would be breaking:
此外，拉丁美洲各国与墨西哥还签有防务协定。一些对美国并不友好的国家，很可能会启动同盟条款向美国宣战，尤其是它们会认为自己将是下一个目标——考虑到拉丁美洲许多国家的处境比墨西哥更为艰难，这种担忧很可能成真。凭借墨西哥在拉丁美洲的影响力，这极易引发多米诺骨牌效应，促使整个地区启动共同防务协定。以下是《里约共同防务条约》的相关地图，而美国的入侵行为将违反该条约：
Note Mexico is in Cyan, because it withdrew in 2004. But it did so in order to pursue individual pacts with many of these same countries. I believe Mexico and Spain also have a mutual defense pact, which brings in the European unx - and NATO - into this web of treaties. Remember that the attacking country goes at it alone, so the US would not be able to count on NATO.
注：墨西哥以青色标注，因其于2004年退出了该条约，但退出的目的是与该条约中的多个国家单独签订防务协定。此外，墨西哥与西班牙之间也存在共同防务协定，这将使欧盟乃至北约都卷入这一复杂的条约网络之中。需注意的是，侵略国将陷入孤立无援的境地，因此美国无法指望北约提供任何支持。
At this point, we just got ourselves a World War Three scenario that includes the EU (or at least parts of it that, when attacked, will trigger other treaties) against the US. Remember, World war 1 started with the simple assassination of an archduke triggering a police operation that triggered a web of mutual defense pacts. This is no different.
至此，我们已然面临第三次世界大战的风险，欧盟（或至少其部分成员国，一旦遭到攻击将触发其他条约）将与美国对立。要知道，第一次世界大战的爆发，最初只是源于一场大公遇刺事件，随后引发了警方行动，进而触发了一系列相互关联的共同防务协定，如今的局势与此如出一辙。
So now the bloodlust has turned a conflict of 758K square miles into 7.412 million square miles, plus a lot of the US itself. Sure, militarily the US can win any one shooting battle (except against its own National Guard, in which they’d win the war but lose many battles). But demographically the US already lost because there is no way in hell they can pacify this much territory and deal with these many angry people, from the US Southwest to Patagonia (about 680 million people).
就这样，美国的嗜血好战将一场涉及75.8万平方英里的冲突，升级为覆盖741.2万平方英里的大战，且美国本土的大片区域也将卷入其中。诚然，从军事角度而言，美国或许能赢得任何一场单独的武装冲突（与本国国民警卫队交战除外——即便最终能赢得战争，也将在诸多战役中遭遇惨败）。但从人口规模来看，美国早已注定失败，因为它根本无法平定如此广阔的领土，也无力应对从美国西南部到巴塔哥尼亚地区（约6.8亿人口）的海量愤怒民众。
Not to mention that, if the war were to go Pan-American, there is a guarantee their other horrified friends and allies, decrying the New American Nazism and calling the globe for help in the Latin American freedom project - people such as Russia, the EU (Spain being bound by treaty and history to help Mexico, and France only by history) and possibly China - would get involved. There’s lots of interests there for them.
更不用说，若战争蔓延至整个美洲，其他对美国行径感到震惊的国家和盟友——比如俄罗斯、欧盟（西班牙受条约与历史渊源约束必须援助墨西哥，法国则仅受历史因素影响），甚至可能包括中国——必将纷纷介入。它们会谴责美国的“新纳粹主义”行径，并呼吁全球支持拉丁美洲的自由事业，毕竟这些国家在该地区有着诸多利益诉求。
Heck, given the modern factories they all have in Mexico alone, they may intervene in the initial stages of the conflict, turning things very nuclear very quick. Remember, it takes six minutes for a nuke from a sub-launch to reach a target, and Russia has lots and lots of subs, and China also has a few. Initial targets for those nukes would be East coast American cities. The original 13 and the midwest just came into play. Hope we’ve kept up the duck and cover exercises, not that they’ll work anyway.
事实上，仅就这些国家在墨西哥境内拥有的现代化工厂而言，它们就可能在冲突初期便介入其中，导致局势迅速升级为核战争。要知道，潜射核武器抵达目标仅需6分钟，而俄罗斯拥有大量核潜艇，中国也具备一定的核潜艇力量。这些核武器的首要打击目标将是美国东海岸城市，最初的13个殖民地州以及中西部地区都将被卷入战火。但愿人们还在坚持练习“卧倒掩护”动作，尽管这其实毫无用处。
It would be silly to drop nuclear weapons on Latin America (which is nuclear free, largely thanks to the Mexicans) - hit the unarmed ones and guarantee nuclear retaliation from their allies to what effect, exactly? If it went nuclear, the nuclear powers would target each other first, cancelling each other out. There may never be those “secondary attacks” on Latin America and if there are it would be only a few - again, territory size.
向拉丁美洲投放核武器是极为愚蠢的行为——该地区本质上是无核区（这在很大程度上要归功于墨西哥的努力）。攻击手无寸铁的地区，只会招致其盟友的核报复，这样做究竟能达到什么目的？一旦爆发核战争，核大国必将首先相互瞄准，最终同归于尽。拉丁美洲或许根本不会遭遇所谓的“二次打击”，即便有，也只会是极少数——归根结底还是受领土规模的影响。
But even if it doesn’t go nuclear because there is no need, it would be impossible to stop bicoastal drops from all of Europe to unknown Latin American destinations (not to mention the distraction of the US being attacked at its own bases in places like Germany, assuming they didn’t recall the troops before and gave up European stability in order to manage this fudge-up). The US can’t protect miles and miles of coastline.
但即便因无需动用核武器而未爆发核战争，也无法阻止从欧洲各地向拉丁美洲未知目的地发起的双海岸突袭（更不用说，若美国此前未撤回驻德等地区的军队，为了收拾这场烂摊子而放弃欧洲稳定，其海外基地还将遭受攻击，进而分散自身兵力）。美国根本无力保卫绵延数千英里的海岸线。
One thing is for sure - Mexico would survive in some form as a discernible entity, as it’s not just a political unit, it’s a millenary culture. And they weren’t the aggressor, so they’d have the political capital dividends of being attacked. At least a few Mexican statesmen would be created who would shape international thought for years to come.
有一点可以肯定——墨西哥将以某种可辨识的实体形式存续下去，因为它不仅是一个政治实体，更是拥有千年历史的文明。而且墨西哥并非侵略方，因此将享有被侵略国的政治资本红利。至少会涌现出一批能够影响未来数年国际思潮的墨西哥政治家。
The “blood-lusted” US, however, that’s not so clear. Germany certainly didn’t survive it, with all its might it got invaded after it spread itself too thin and got broken up in two. And for all the credit the US takes for it, the Russians did much of the heavy lifting on the East after their Winter took care of some things. This would be no different other than a much larger territory to spread oneself thin on.
然而，这个“嗜血好战”的美国能否存续，就很难说了。当年的德国即便实力雄厚，最终也未能幸免——由于战线拉得过长而遭到入侵，最终分裂为两个国家。尽管美国常常将击败德国的功劳揽在自己身上，但事实上，在苏联的冬季战役扭转战局后，东线的大部分重任都是由苏联承担的。如今的美国也将面临同样的命运，区别仅在于其需要投入兵力的领土范围更为广阔。
I can totally see the US splitting in two or more nations as a result of the domino effect of an ill-advised “Mexico campaign”. Particularly if the conflict becomes global and nuclear weapons become involved.
我完全可以预见，这场不明智的“墨西哥战役”引发的多米诺骨牌效应，将导致美国分裂为两个或更多国家。尤其是在冲突升级为全球性战争且涉及核武器的情况下，这种结局将更有可能发生。
Ted Neward B.A. in International Relations, University of California, Davis (Graduated 1995)8y
泰德·纽瓦德 加州大学戴维斯分校国际关系学士（1995年毕业），8年前回答
Actually, this was the subject of a paper I wrote in college; not exactly the same subject, but close to it. (With the presumptive signing of NAFTA, I was asked to write a “position paper” on advising the POTUS what to do in the event of a Mexican uprising taking greater hold and turning into a full-blown rebellion/revolution.)
事实上，这是我大学时期一篇论文的主题——虽不完全一致，但高度相关。当时北美自由贸易协定即将签署，我被要求撰写一份政策立场文件，就墨西哥起义若进一步扩大并演变为全面叛乱/革命时，应如何为美国总统提供建议。
Truth is, if the US military descended on Mexico in full battle array, there is absolutely nothing the Mexican military could do to stop them. The United States has roughly 20 or so active US army divisions; from Wikipedia, the Mexican army consists of roughly nine infantry brigades. (Divisions usually are made up of several brigades.) So already, without any further analysis, the Mexicans have roughly a 6-to-1 disadvantage in manpower. Couple with this that the US Army has been engaged in large-scale exercises since the 1950’s (as part of its preparation for combat against the USSR) and most recently developed a ton of combat experience from its campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, contrasted with the Mexican Army’s utility against more localized concerns (such as against the drug lords), and we again see a major disparity in full-scale combat potential.
事实上，若美国军队倾巢而出进攻墨西哥，墨西哥军队根本无力阻挡。美国约有20个现役陆军师，而根据维基百科数据，墨西哥军队仅由约9个步兵旅组成（师通常由多个旅构成）。无需进一步分析便能看出，墨西哥在兵力上已面临约6:1的劣势。此外，美国陆军自20世纪50年代起就持续开展大规模军事演习（作为对抗苏联的备战一部分），近期更从伊拉克和阿富汗战争中积累了丰富的实战经验；而墨西哥军队的主要任务是应对本土局部问题（如打击毒枭），两者在全面作战能力上存在巨大差距。
There are several things that would tip things back towards Mexico’s favor; one, the US could hardly draw all of its forces back from all over the world without abandoning commitments worldwide, so the 60-to-9 advantage is not likely to be realistic. Two, such an invasion would be swiftly and loudly condemned by the rest of the world as blatant imperialism, and the US would see numerous nations flock to Mexico’s banner and demand withdrawal or face a declaration of war, which would again change the balance of power significantly. Three, although it’s possible many Mexican citizens would see being part of the US as a positive thing, it’s far more likely that nationalism and pride of country would kick in and create a significant partisan presence, and make holding Mexican territory all but impossible without significant numbers of casualties against US soldiers and support personnel.
不过有几个因素会扭转局势对墨西哥有利：其一，美国若不从全球撤回所有兵力，就无法形成上述兵力优势，而撤回兵力意味着背弃全球承诺，因此6:1的兵力差距并不现实；其二，这种侵略行为将被世界各国迅速且强烈地谴责为公然的帝国主义行径，众多国家会纷纷支持墨西哥，要求美国撤军，否则将宣战，这将显著改变力量平衡；其三，尽管部分墨西哥民众可能认为加入美国是好事，但更有可能激发民族主义情绪和国家自豪感，催生大规模抵抗力量，美国若想占领墨西哥领土，必将付出惨重的人员伤亡代价，几乎难以实现。
Lastly, though, why would the US bother? The current arrangement of economic ties and cooperation benefits the US quite nicely, and there is no natural resource in abundance enough to draw the US’s eye enough to merit a military conquest. Were there to be an uprising/revolution, or if Mexico were to fall into chaos, that would present an entirely different scenario, but Mexico is actually pretty stable as a nation, and the US would like nothing better than to see its borders solidified by the presence of friendly, stable neighbors (which they have got in Mexico and Canada).
最后，美国为何要自寻麻烦？当前的经济联系与合作安排已让美国受益匪浅，墨西哥并无足够丰富的自然资源值得美国发动军事征服。若墨西哥发生起义/革命或陷入混乱，那将是另一番情景，但事实上墨西哥作为国家相当稳定，美国最希望看到的是边境由友好、稳定的邻国（即墨西哥和加拿大）守护。
In fact, it’s far more likely that the US would propose a “North American Unified Government” pact, essentially unifying all three as the “United States of North America”, accomplishing a unification of the continent through diplomatic prowess, rather than conquest. (Of course, the chances of that happening are pretty low, given how much both nations are wary and leery of the US.)
事实上，美国更有可能提出“北美统一政府”协定，通过外交手段而非征服，将美、加、墨三国统一为“北美合众国”。（当然，考虑到加拿大和墨西哥对美国的警惕与疑虑，这种可能性相当低。）
Daniel Osornío Lived in Mexico City9y
丹尼尔·奥索尼奥 曾居住于墨西哥城，9年前回答
Originally Answered: If Mexico were attacked, what would the U.S. do?
原问题：若墨西哥遭到攻击，美国会如何应对？
Well first of... The first question most Mexican citizens will ask Like out of all countries Why us? Look believe it or not. Mexico is a Vital ally to the USA.
首先……大多数墨西哥民众会问的第一个问题是：在众多国家中，为什么偏偏是我们？不管你信不信，墨西哥是美国至关重要的盟友。
Number 1. Geography. If the enemy country decided to attack Mexico. The USA would be worried about 3 main things. California. Texas. And pretty much trade routes and such along the border. Why?? Well because both of those states GDP combines Is pretty much 3.373 TRILLION dollars, and add the fact that BILLIONS of dollars go through the border. Whether it be goods, business etc. You can see if they managed to hit the major cities in those 2 states and the enemy damages the northern front of Mexico. You'll have the USA really weakened as well as Mexico.
第一，地理位置。若敌国决定进攻墨西哥，美国将主要担忧三件事：加利福尼亚州、得克萨斯州，以及边境沿线的贸易路线等。为什么？因为这两个州的GDP总和约为3.373万亿美元，且每天有数十亿美元的货物、商业往来等通过边境。不难想象，若敌人袭击这两个州的主要城市并破坏墨西哥北部边境，美国和墨西哥都将遭受重创。
Now let's say the enemy managed to weaken Mexico. Well you bet that the USA would have all units in the border and in the waters to delay and attack the enemy forces.
假设敌人成功削弱了墨西哥的实力，美国必定会在边境及周边海域部署所有兵力，以牵制并打击敌军。
Now obviously Mexico is part of NAFTA and the Organization of American States (OAS/ pretty much all of the Americas.) So you'll have at least USA and Canada providing some type of military support. While as well the rest of the Americas (including Canada and USA) give some type of aid (economic etc.)
显然，墨西哥是北美自由贸易协定和美洲国家组织（涵盖几乎所有美洲国家）的成员。因此，至少美国和加拿大会提供某种形式的军事支持，而其他美洲国家（包括美加）也会提供经济等方面的援助。
The US will come to help Mexico at any costs. Mexico helped us in WW1 and WW2 While they didn't fight as much as the US did. Mexico pretty much gives money and materials the US has needed for their battles.
美国将不惜一切代价援助墨西哥。墨西哥在一战和二战中都曾给予美国支持——尽管参战规模不及美国，但提供了美国作战所需的资金和物资。
So in the end. The US would react in a way that it'll do it's best to defend its borders and waters that it shares with Mexico. While giving aid to Mexico in any way. If Mexico is down. You bet the US will go down as well... Both depend on each other so heavily economically.
因此，归根结底，美国的应对方式将是全力保卫与墨西哥共享的边境和海域，同时以各种方式援助墨西哥。若墨西哥倒下，美国也必将受到重创——两国在经济上相互依存度极高。
David Jackson7y
大卫·杰克逊 7年前回答
Originally Answered: What would happen if the USA went to war with Mexico?
原问题：若美国与墨西哥开战，将会发生什么？
This reminds me of a question posed to an American Jew and was asked what would happen if Israel and the USA went to war, whose side would you be on? He answered that in that case America wouldn’t be America or Israel wouldn’t be Israel. What that means that in order for these two countries to go to war with each other, one (or possibly both) of these countries would have to be so radically different from what they currently are culturally (and in other areas) that they could hardly be considered the same country. For the US to go to war with Mexico, one or both of these countries would have to be so very different from their current situation for war to be declared.
这让我想起一个问美国犹太人的问题：如果以色列和美国开战，你会站在哪一边？他回答说，若真到那一步，要么美国不再是美国，要么以色列不再是以色列。这意味着，要让这两个国家兵戎相见，其中一方（或双方）必须在文化等诸多方面发生根本性转变，以至于不再是我们如今所认知的那个国家。同样，美国与墨西哥要爆发战争，也需要其中一方或双方的现状发生巨大改变，否则战争根本无从谈起。
Jon Hill One time political science major, pays attention to politics4y
乔恩·希尔 曾主修政治学，关注政治动态，4年前回答
Originally Answered: What would happen if America invaded Mexico?
原问题：若美国入侵墨西哥，将会发生什么？
What would happen if America invaded Mexico? We’d get our asses kicked by all those “insurgents” at the border. No? Yeah, no. If we just up and decided to “invade Mexico,” we would not run into much in the way of irresistible resistance and could probably take Mexico City in a couple of days. At that point, we’d be pretty much like the dog that caught the car: “What do we do with in now?” Of course, one would have to wonder why we would even do such a thing, because without clear and convincing provocation that could not be settled with some action(s) short of full-scale invasion, we would become the pariah of the world, lower on the list that North Korea, Syria, or Turkmenistan. I cannot think of a nation that wouldn’t immediately recall their ambassadors, and can think of a few (Russia, China, and virtually every Central and South American nation) that might actively intervene on the side of Mexico.
美国入侵墨西哥会怎样？我们会被边境那些“叛乱分子”打得落花流水？不？确实不会。如果我们突然决定“入侵墨西哥”，初期不会遇到太多无法抵挡的抵抗，或许几天内就能攻占墨西哥城。但到那时，我们就会陷入“狗咬到汽车后不知如何是好”的困境。当然，人们不禁会问，我们为什么要做这样的事？因为如果没有明确且令人信服的挑衅，且这种挑衅无法通过全面入侵之外的方式解决，美国将沦为世界公敌，地位甚至低于朝鲜、叙利亚或土库曼斯坦。我想不出有哪个国家不会立即召回大使，反而能想到一些国家（俄罗斯、中国，以及几乎所有中美洲和南美洲国家）可能会积极支持墨西哥并进行干预。
One “positive”? International trade with the US would almost certainly grind to a halt, if only temporarily, so we would finally be able to build all the factories we need with full US employment pursuant to supplying ourselves with everything we need. And toasters would cost $500, a pair of Nikes $1500, and family night at Burger King would run you $300–400. And bananas, grapes, pineapples, lemons/limes, watermelons, apples, and many other staple foods would virtually disappear from our shelves (yeah, we grow a lot of some of these here, but not nearly enough to supply ourselves at current rates of consumption).
一个“好处”？与美国的国际贸易几乎肯定会陷入停滞（即便只是暂时的），这样我们最终就能建立所有需要的工厂，实现全民就业，自给自足所需的一切物资。但随之而来的是，烤面包机售价会涨到500美元，一双耐克鞋1500美元，全家去汉堡王吃一顿要花300-400美元。香蕉、葡萄、菠萝、柠檬/青柠、西瓜、苹果以及许多其他主食也将从货架上几乎消失（没错，我们本土确实种植其中一些作物，但远远无法满足当前的消费需求）。
It would be a war we would win, but a country (ours) we would lose. Badly.
这场战争我们或许能打赢，但我们的国家将付出惨重代价，一败涂地。
Wes Frank Masters in American History from Northwestern University3y
韦斯·弗兰克 西北大学美国史硕士，3年前回答
A lot of death and misery and pain to no good purpose. The United States occupied Northern and Central Mexico back in 1846 and 1847. The Americans had had a vague ambition of settling all of North America west from the Mississippi to the Pacific (“Manifest Destiny”) but most had no grudge against or interest in Mexico. Southern slaveholders, however, wanted Texas to found more slave states. Die-hard Manifest Destiny believers also wanted California for the United States. Because Mexico was virtually falling apart by 1836, its northern provinces seemed ripe for the picking. And there was the added factor that, if the United States didn’t get them, the British would.
这将是一场毫无意义、充满死亡、苦难与伤痛的战争。早在1846年至1847年，美国就曾占领过墨西哥北部和中部地区。当时美国人怀有一个模糊的野心，即定居在从密西西比河到太平洋的整个北美西部地区（“天定命运论”），但大多数人对墨西哥并无怨恨或兴趣。然而，南方奴隶主希望通过得克萨斯建立更多蓄奴州，坚定的“天定命运论”信徒也希望将加利福尼亚纳入美国版图。由于墨西哥在1836年前后几乎濒临瓦解，其北部省份被认为已到了可被轻易夺取的地步。此外还有一个因素是，若美国不拿下这些地区，英国也会出手。
In 1847, therefore, the United States had invaded and conquered much of Mexico. However, the only provinces the Polk administration was sure it wanted were Texas, New Mexico, and California, all of which had scattered Mexican populations of a few tens of thousands. There were factions in Washington who wanted to annex more Mexican provinces. Nicholas Trist, who was in Mexico to negotiate a peace treaty under President James K. Polk’s instructions, saw that trying to garrison and control the more densely populated parts of Mexico would awaken Mexican resistance, bring about a bloody guerrilla war, and possibly bring about a military disaster. He also knew, seeing beyond the ambitions of the politicians favoring more annexations, that most Americans had no desire to rule or absorb large populations of foreigners and certainly did not want to try to assimilate millions of Mexican peasants cursed by what they saw as a corrupt, class-ridden, decadent culture. Trist quickly got a signed treaty to Washington to Polk “purchasing” only California and New Mexico and ending the Mexican claim on Texas. Polk, who had gotten the imperial bug himself, was angry, but had to get the peace treaty through congress before his political support weakened. The war was over and Mexico and the United States have been at peace for 168 years.
因此，1847年美国入侵并征服了墨西哥的大部分地区。然而，波尔克政府明确想要的只有得克萨斯、新墨西哥和加利福尼亚，这些地区的墨西哥人口仅为数万人，且分布零散。华盛顿有部分派系希望吞并更多墨西哥省份，但奉詹姆斯·K·波尔克总统之命在墨西哥谈判和平条约的尼古拉斯·特里斯特意识到，试图在墨西哥人口更密集的地区驻军并实施控制，必将激起墨西哥人的抵抗，引发血腥的游击战，甚至可能导致军事灾难。他还看透了那些支持扩大吞并的政客的野心，深知大多数美国人并不愿意统治或吸纳大量外国人，更不愿试图同化数百万墨西哥农民——他们认为这些农民深受腐败、阶级分化且腐朽的文化所困。特里斯特迅速将一份已签署的条约送往华盛顿呈给波尔克，条约中仅“购买”加利福尼亚和新墨西哥，并终止墨西哥对得克萨斯的领土主张。波尔克本人也怀有帝国野心，对此感到愤怒，但为避免政治支持减弱，不得不推动国会通过该和平条约。战争就此结束，墨西哥和美国在此后的168年里一直保持和平。
That long peace would have been unheard of in Africa, Europe, or Asia. Trist, a great American hero, kept the poison of 19th Century colonialism from infecting the United States, and his strategic judgement was sound. France invaded Mexico only fourteen years later and Mexico fought them for three years, overthrowing their puppet emperor, Maximillian, two years after that. The United States, in theory, could have invaded and conquered Mexico at any time after 1865, but Trist was, again, correct. Pretty much no one in the United States wanted to rule Mexico, and no one in Mexico wanted to be ruled by the United States.
这种长期和平在非洲、欧洲或亚洲是前所未有的。特里斯特是伟大的美国英雄，他阻止了19世纪殖民主义的毒瘤侵蚀美国，其战略判断极为明智。仅仅14年后，法国入侵墨西哥，墨西哥与之抗争了三年，并在两年后推翻了法国扶植的傀儡皇帝马克西米利安。理论上，1865年后美国本可以在任何时候入侵并征服墨西哥，但特里斯特的判断再次得到印证：几乎没有美国人愿意统治墨西哥，也没有墨西哥人愿意被美国统治。
If some emergency situation called for 21st Century America to invade Mexico, it would be solely for the purpose solving some problem or another: a governmental collapse, a drug cartel trying to take over a province, a foreign-backed coup. No matter what, Mexicans would be fighting back, because they love their country just like Americans do. American air and ground troops could capture Mexican cities just south of the border, but they would be stuck with trying to govern them. In theory, the Americans could also take Veracruz or Mexico City., but the Mexicans would be fighting back and the United States does not have the million or so hardened mercenaries it would take to enforce an occupation government.
如果21世纪的美国因某种紧急情况不得不入侵墨西哥，其唯一目的只能是解决特定问题：如墨西哥政府垮台、贩毒集团企图夺取某省控制权、外国支持的政变等。但无论何种情况，墨西哥人都会奋起反抗，因为他们和美国人一样热爱自己的国家。美国的空中和地面部队或许能攻占边境以南的墨西哥城市，但随后将陷入治理困境。理论上，美国也可能拿下韦拉克鲁斯或墨西哥城，但墨西哥人的抵抗不会停止，而美国并不具备维持一个占领政府所需的约一百万精锐雇佣军。
The Mexican army would fight, but it is not equipped to handle American firepower. As the core of a resistance movement, however, it could fight a long, brutal campaign. And during that campaign, forces in the United States would be besieging their own government to find out why they had undertaken such an insane project.
墨西哥军队会奋起抵抗，但他们的装备无法对抗美国的火力。然而，作为抵抗运动的核心力量，他们可以开展一场漫长而残酷的持久战。在此期间，美国国内势力也会向本国政府施压，要求其解释为何要实施如此疯狂的计划。
Tom Lewis Studied at Arizona State University8y
汤姆·刘易斯 曾就读于亚利桑那州立大学，8年前回答
Originally Answered: What would happen if a blood-lusted United States invaded Mexico?
原问题：若穷凶极恶的美国入侵墨西哥，将会发生什么？
The USA could easily defeat the Mexican armed forces. If there was a prolonged insurgency the USA would be a big loser in the occupation. Mexico is a lot bigger and more geographically challenging than Iraq. The number of troops needed to pacify over 100 million people would be massive. What if Mexicans within the USA joined in an insurgency? What if large numbers of chicanos fed up with decades of being treated as second class citizens joined in? The USA could find itself fighting two insurgent wars. One in places like Chicago, Dallas, NYC, Phoenix and LA.
美国可以轻易击败墨西哥武装部队，但如果爆发长期叛乱，美国在占领过程中将成为最大输家。墨西哥的国土面积比伊拉克大得多，地理环境也更为复杂。要平定超过1亿人口，所需的兵力将是天文数字。如果美国境内的墨西哥人加入叛乱怎么办？如果大量因数十年来被视为二等公民而心怀不满的奇卡诺人（墨西哥裔美国人）加入叛乱怎么办？美国可能会发现自己陷入两场叛乱战争——(除了墨西哥本土，另一场)在芝加哥、达拉斯、纽约、凤凰城和洛杉矶等地展开。
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