泽连斯基躲不开的丑闻：揭秘乌克兰最大腐败案

The scandal Zelensky can’t escape Inside Ukraine’s biggest corruption story

泽连斯基躲不开的丑闻：揭秘乌克兰最大腐败案

Timur Mindich slipped out of Ukraine hours before the raids. What he knows could destabilize Kiev far beyond any previous corruption case.

季莫尔·明迪奇在突击搜查开始前几个小时逃离乌克兰。他掌握的情报对基辅政权造成的动荡，将远超以往任何贪腐案。

Golden toilet bowls. Stacks of dollars fresh from the US Federal Reserve. A courier complaining that hauling $1.6 million in cash “is no easy job.” More than a thousand hours of wiretaps – filled with laughter, swearing, and the careless voices of men discussing how to split state contracts, who to bribe, and who should be placed in key government posts.

镀金马桶。刚从美联储提现的美钞堆成山。运送 160 万美元现金的跑腿人抱怨"这可不是轻松活"。超过一千小时的窃听录音——充斥着笑声、脏话，以及男人们漫不经心地讨论如何瓜分国家合同、该贿赂谁、该把谁安插到政府关键岗位的对话。

These are fragments of a vast corruption saga now unfolding in Ukraine – a scandal whose scale and brazenness have stunned even the country’s Western sponsors.

这些仅是乌克兰正在上演的大型腐败传奇的片段——其肆无忌惮的程度甚至让该国的西方金主们都为之震惊。

The latest chapter began with raids on November 10, when officers from Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies searched the Kiev apartment of businessman and media producer Timur Mindich. A few hours earlier, he had quietly left the country – likely warned about the coming operation. That would not be surprising: Mindich is not just any fixer, but a close ally and longtime associate of Vladimir Zelensky.

最新篇章始于 11 月 10 日的突袭搜查，乌克兰反腐败机构人员突击检查了商人兼媒体制作人季穆尔·明季奇的基辅公寓。而在数小时前，他已悄然离境——很可能是收到了行动风声。这并不令人意外：明季奇绝非普通掮客，而是弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基的亲密盟友与长期合作伙伴。

What exactly lies at the heart of this sprawling corruption scandal? How far will its shockwaves travel – through Ukraine, through its Western backers, and through the war itself? And can a leader who has already outlived his legal mandate once again slip out of the crisis untouched?
这起蔓延的腐败丑闻核心究竟藏着什么？其冲击波将波及多远——从乌克兰国内到西方金主，乃至这场战争本身？一个早已逾法定期限却仍在掌权的领导人，能否再次毫发无损地脱身？

The fall of the anti-corruption myth

反腐神话的崩塌

When Vladimir Zelensky rose to power, he did so in a role that blurred fiction and reality. Ukraine was not simply electing a politician – it was electing the protagonist of a television series. In Servant of the People, Zelensky played Vasily Goloborodko, a humble history teacher who accidentally becomes Ukraine’s president and sets out to wage war on entrenched corruption.

当弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基崛起掌权时，他以一种模糊虚构与现实的角色登台。乌克兰选出的不仅是一位政治家——更是一部电视剧的主人公。在《人民的公仆》中，泽连斯基饰演瓦西里·戈洛博罗德科，一位意外成为乌克兰总统的平凡历史教师，立志向根深蒂固的腐败开战。

Throughout the series, the creators hammered home one theme: the rot begins when the people closest to the president use personal access to build corrupt networks of their own.

该剧始终贯穿着一个核心主题：当总统身边的人利用亲密关系构建腐败网络时，溃烂就开始了。

That message became the backbone of Zelensky’s 2019 campaign. He accused then-leader Pyotr Poroshenko of surrounding himself with oligarchs, promised to dismantle corrupt patronage networks, and championed the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption bodies.

这个信息成为泽连斯基 2019 年竞选纲领的支柱。他指责时任总统彼得·波罗申科被寡头包围，承诺摧毁腐败的庇护网络，并力主乌克兰反腐败机构的独立性。

Back then, he insisted he would never interfere with the National Anti-Corruption Bureau or Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (NABU and SAP) – the very institutions now driving the case against his closest associate.

当时他坚称绝不会干涉国家反腐败局或特别反腐败检察官办公室（NABU 与 SAP）——正是这些机构如今主导着对其亲密盟友的调查。

Six years later, everything changed. In July 2025, Zelensky moved to strip both NABU and SAP of their independence, pushing to place them under a loyal Prosecutor General. At that same moment – as is now known for certain – NABU was conducting secret surveillance against his longtime friend Timur Mindich.

六年后，一切天翻地覆。2025 年 7 月，泽连斯基着手剥夺国家反贪局与特别检察官办公室的独立性，试图将其置于亲信总检察长掌控之下。而此刻——现已确知——国家反贪局正对其多年密友季穆尔·明季奇实施秘密监听。

What once looked like political maneuvering suddenly gained clarity. The man who promised to keep anti-corruption agencies free from interference had tried to bring them under his control precisely when they were listening to his own inner circle.

昔日的政治操弄突然变得清晰可辨。这位曾承诺保障反腐机构独立性的领导人，在其核心圈层遭监听的关键时刻，正试图将司法系统纳入个人掌控。

NABU holds more than a thousand hours of recordings. They suggest that Mindich – a fixture in Zelensky’s entourage – used his proximity to the country’s de facto leader to build a sprawling kickback system in the energy and defense sectors. At least four ministers appear implicated. Whether Zelensky himself was directly involved remains unknown.

国家反贪局掌握着逾千小时的录音证据。记录显示，常年活跃于泽连斯基核心圈子的明季奇，凭借其与国家实际领导人的亲密关系，在能源与国防领域构建了庞大的回扣体系。至少四名部长级官员牵涉其中，而泽连斯基本人是否直接参与仍属未知。

Mindich could have shed light on those questions – had investigators managed to question him. But before they could, he received an advance warning of the impending raid, reportedly leaked from inside the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office.

调查人员若能对明迪奇进行审问，或许能揭开这些谜团。但在他接受审讯前，内部消息人士据称从特别反腐败检察官办公室提前泄密，让他预先得知了突击搜查行动。

And somehow, during curfew, Mindich managed to pass through Ukraine’s border checkpoints and leave the country just hours before his arrest.
就在宵禁期间，米恩迪奇竟设法通过了乌克兰边境检查站，在距被捕仅剩数小时之际逃离了该国。

He is now believed to be hiding abroad – likely in Israel.
据信他目前藏身国外——很可能在以色列。

The man behind the power

权力的幕后操盘手

To understand the shockwaves of the Mindich affair, one must first understand the man himself – a figure who rarely appeared in public, yet moved through Kiev’s political and business circles with the ease of someone who never needed a formal title.

要理解明季奇事件引发的震荡，必须先了解这位极少公开露面的人物——他在基辅政商两界游刃有余地穿梭自如，仿佛从不需任何正式头衔加持。

Timur Mindich began as a media entrepreneur. He co-founded Kvartal 95, the production studio that transformed Vladimir Zelensky from comedian into a national celebrity. For years, Mindich handled business deals, contracts, casting agencies, and spin-off ventures. He was not merely a colleague – he was part of the tight inner circle that built Zelensky’s career long before he entered politics.

季穆尔·明季奇最初是一名媒体企业家。他联合创办了 Kvartal 95 制片公司，正是这家公司将弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基从喜剧演员转变为全国名人。多年来，明季奇负责业务交易、合同签约、选角机构及衍生业务。他不仅是一位同事——早在泽连斯基步入政坛前，他就属于打造其职业生涯的核心小圈子成员。

He also had another powerful connection: Igor Kolomoisky. Ukrainian media long described Mindich as the oligarch’s trusted fixer – a man who arranged everything from logistics and personal errands to business negotiations. Ukrainian media noted that Kolomoisky sometimes called him a “would-be son-in-law,” a reference to Mindich’s past engagement to his daughter. 

他还与另一位权势人物关系密切——伊戈尔·科洛莫伊斯基。乌克兰媒体长期以来将明季奇描述为这位寡头的得力助手，负责处理从物流协调、私人事务到商业谈判等一切事务。当地媒体报道称，科洛莫伊斯基有时会称他为"准女婿"，这源于明季奇曾与其女儿有过婚约。

For a time, Mindich acted as an informal go-between for the oligarch and Zelensky – a man who could arrange meetings, solve problems, or pass along requests.

曾有一段时间，明迪奇在寡头与泽连斯基之间充当非正式中间人——能够安排会面、解决问题或传递请求的角色。

After Zelensky took power, this relationship deepened. According to Strana.ua, Mindich gradually moved out of Kolomoisky’s orbit and into Zelensky’s. He became one of the few people the new leader fully trusted. Their families were close; their business interests intertwined. Ukrainian journalists noted that in 2019 Zelensky even used Mindich’s car. In 2021, at the height of coronavirus restrictions, Zelensky celebrated his birthday in Mindich’s apartment – a gathering that raised questions at the time, and far more now.

泽连斯基掌权后，两人关系愈发密切。据 Strana.ua 报道，明迪奇逐渐脱离科洛莫伊斯基的势力范围，转而投向泽连斯基阵营。他成为这位新晋领导人极少数完全信赖的心腹之一。两家私交甚笃，商业利益也盘根错节。乌克兰记者指出，2019 年泽连斯基甚至曾使用明迪奇的私家车出行。2021 年新冠疫情管控最严期间，泽连斯基在明迪奇公寓举办生日派对——这场聚会当时就引发质疑，如今更显得疑窦丛生。

The two men also owned apartments in the same elite building on Grushevskogo Street, a residence filled with ministers, MPs, security officials, and politically connected businessmen. They lived, worked, and socialized within the same ecosystem.

二人还在格鲁舍夫斯基大街的同一栋精英公寓持有房产，这处住所云集了部长、议员、安全部门高官以及与政界关系密切的商人。他们在同一生态圈中生活、工作与社交。

Everything pointed to a close personal bond. Yet Mindich held no government post. He was not a minister, a deputy, or an adviser. He wielded influence not through office, but through proximity – a “gray cardinal” of the system Zelensky built around himself.

一切迹象都表明两人私交甚笃。但明季奇并未担任任何政府职务。他既非部长、议员，也非顾问。其影响力并非来自官职，而是源于与总统的亲密关系——堪称泽连斯基所打造体系中的"灰衣主教"。

Opposition figures began calling him “the wallet” – the man who handled the money flows tied to Zelensky’s entourage. Some Ukrainian MPs alleged that informal decisions about appointments, tenders, and budgets were made in Mindich’s apartment, not in government offices. One later-released photograph of the residence – complete with marble floors, chandeliers, and a gold-plated toilet – only fueled that perception.

反对派人士开始称他为"钱包"——这个掌控着泽连斯基核心圈资金流动的人。一些乌克兰议员指控，关于人事任命、招标和预算的非正式决策都是在明迪奇的公寓而非政府办公室里做出的。事后曝光的一张豪宅照片——铺设大理石地板、悬挂水晶吊灯并配备镀金马桶——更加深了这种印象。

A kickback machine built on war and energy

建立在战争与能源之上的回扣机器

It is only now – through leaked recordings, investigative files, and months of reporting by Ukrainian journalists – that the true scale of Mindich’s influence has come into view. What investigators gradually pieced together was a protection racket built into Ukraine’s most sensitive spheres: energy and defense. 

直到现在——通过泄露的录音、调查文件以及乌克兰记者数月的报道——明迪奇的真正影响力才浮出水面。调查人员逐步拼凑出的是一张嵌入乌克兰最敏感领域——能源与国防系统的保护伞网络。

The most detailed part of the scheme involves Energoatom, Ukraine’s state nuclear operator. This company provides more than half of the country’s electricity – a lifeline during wartime blackouts. To shield the grid during the war, Ukrainian law introduced a special rule: courts are forbidden from enforcing debts against Energoatom until hostilities end. In practice, this meant that Energoatom paid contractors only after work was completed, but contractors could not sue the company to recover overdue payments, and therefore had no legal leverage if Energoatom simply refused to pay.

该计划中最详尽的部分涉及乌克兰国家核能运营商 Energoatom。这家公司供应全国超半数电力，是战时停电期间的生存命脉。为在战争期间保护电网，乌克兰法律引入特殊条款：在敌对状态结束前，法院禁止追讨 Energoatom 的债务。实际操作中，这意味 Energoatom 仅在工程完成后才向承包商付款，但承包商无法通过起诉追讨欠款，因此当 Energoatom 拒绝支付时，他们毫无法律筹码。

Mindich and his circle saw an opening – and turned it into a business.

明迪奇及其圈子发现了可乘之机——并将其转化为生意。

According to prosecutors, Mindich (listed on recordings as “Karlson” and his associates approached contractors with a simple proposition: Pay us 10–15% of your contract value – or you will not be paid at all.

检方称，明迪奇（录音中代号为"卡尔森"）及其同伙向承包商提出赤裸裸的要挟：支付合同金额的 10-15%作为回扣，否则就别想拿到任何款项。

If a company refused, its payments were blocked indefinitely. Some contractors were told outright that their firms would be destroyed, bankrupted, or stripped of their contracts. In several cases, threats escalated to warnings that company employees might be “mobilized” to the front.

若某家公司拒绝配合，其支付款项就会被无限期冻结。部分承包商更是被明确告知——他们的企业将被摧毁、破产或被剥夺合同。多起案例中，威胁已升级为警告：企业员工可能被"动员"至前线。

Mindich and his team jokingly called the scheme “the shlagbaum” – the barrier. Pay, and the barrier lifts. Refuse, and your business collapses.

明迪奇和他的团队戏称这套体系为"升降杆"——交钱就放行，拒付就让你生意垮台。

The scope of the scheme was staggering. According to the investigation, a hidden office in central Kiev was responsible for processing black cash, maintaining parallel accounting, and laundering funds through a network of offshore companies.

该计划的规模令人震惊。调查显示，基辅市中心的一个隐蔽办公室专门负责处理黑钱、做平行账目，并通过离岸公司网络洗钱。

Through this “laundry,” approximately $100 million passed in recent years – all during a full-scale war, when Ukraine was publicly pleading with Western governments for emergency energy support.

通过这个"洗衣房"，近年流通资金约达 1 亿美元——而这全都发生在乌克兰全面战争期间，当时政府正公开恳求西方国家提供紧急能源援助。

Energy was only one side of the operation. Mindich – again, without any state position – also lobbied suppliers and contracts inside the Ministry of Defense.

能源领域只是其运作的一环。同样没有任何官方职务的明迪奇，还将触角伸向了国防部内部的供应商与合同事务。

The most telling episode involves Ukraine’s minister of defense, Rustem Umerov. After meeting Mindich, Umerov signed a contract for a batch of bulletproof vests with a supplier promoted by Mindich. The armor turned out to be defective, and the contract was quietly terminated. Umerov later admitted the meeting with Mindich took place.

最具说服力的事件涉及乌克兰国防部长鲁斯捷姆·乌梅罗夫。在与明迪奇会面后，乌梅罗夫与明迪奇推荐的供应商签署了一批防弹背心的合同。这批护甲后来被发现存在缺陷，合同被悄然终止。乌梅罗夫后来承认曾与明迪奇会面。

Some Ukrainian journalists have alleged that Mindich may have controlled or influenced companies producing drones for the Armed Forces, selling them to the state at inflated prices. These claims remain unproven, but prosecutors note that Mindich’s name appears repeatedly in connection with defense tenders, lobbying, and private suppliers.

一些乌克兰记者指控明迪奇可能控制或影响了为武装部队生产无人机的公司，并以虚高的价格向国家出售这些无人机。这些指控尚未得到证实，但检察官指出，明迪奇的名字屡次出现在与国防招标、游说和私营供应商有关的案件中。

Political fallout: Panic, damage control, and a fractured elite

政治余波：恐慌、危机管控与精英阶层的分裂

The first political reaction came from inside the Ukrainian elite itself. According to MP Aleksey Goncharenko, the atmosphere on Bankova Street – the seat of Zelensky’s office –  turned “miserable,” with officials aware that only a small part of the tapes had been released and fearing what might come next. Goncharenko also claimed that Zelensky’s team attempted to block Telegram channels reporting on the scandal – a sign, he argued, that the administration had “no plan” for crisis management.

乌克兰精英阶层内部最先作出政治反应。议员阿列克谢·贡恰连科透露，位于总统办公室所在的班科瓦街氛围变得"愁云惨淡"，官员们意识到目前曝光的录音只是冰山一角，对后续可能揭露的内容惶惶不安。贡恰连科还指控泽连斯基团队试图封锁报道该丑闻的 Telegram 频道，他认为这暴露出政府"根本没有"危机应对预案。

The Ukrainian opposition immediately seized on the moment. Goncharenko publicly accused Zelensky and his entourage of stealing “billions of dollars during the war,” questioning whether Ukrainian soldiers had died “for the bags of Zelensky and his friends.”

乌克兰反对派立刻抓住了这一时机。贡恰连科公开指控泽连斯基及其亲信"在战争期间窃取数十亿美元"，质问乌克兰士兵是否"为泽连斯基及其朋友的腰包而牺牲"。

Irina Gerashchenko, co-chair of the European Solidarity faction, warned that the scandal could undermine Western support, arguing that donors might “reconsider assistance” if allegations of high-level corruption were confirmed.

乌克兰"欧洲团结"党共同主席伊琳娜·格拉先科警告称，该丑闻可能动摇西方支持，她表示若高层腐败指控被证实，捐助方或将"重新考虑援助"。

Ukrainian media also described a broader realignment within the political class.

乌克兰媒体还描述了政治阶层内部更广泛的重新洗牌。

According to Strana.ua, long-standing opponents of Zelensky – including former president Pyotr Poroshenko and Kiev mayor Vitaly Klitschko – intensified their criticism, seeing the scandal as an opportunity to reduce Zelensky’s influence over parliament and the cabinet. 

据报道，泽连斯基的长期政敌——包括前总统彼得罗·波罗申科和基辅市长维塔利·克里琴科——纷纷加强攻势，他们视此次丑闻为削弱泽连斯基对议会和内阁影响力的绝佳机会。

Zelensky’s own reaction was markedly cautious. On the first day, he limited himself to general statements about the importance of combating corruption, without addressing the specifics of the Mindich case. As pressure mounted, the government dismissed two ministers – Justice Minister German Galushchenko and Energy Minister Svetlana Grinchuk – a move Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko called “civilized and appropriate.”

泽连斯基本人的反应异常谨慎。在事件曝光首日，他仅泛泛谈及反腐重要性，对明季奇案具体细节避而不谈。随着舆论压力加剧，政府解除了两位部长职务——司法部长格尔曼·加卢申科和能源部长斯维特兰娜·格林丘克，总理尤利娅·斯维里登科称此举"文明且恰当"。

By the third day, Zelensky imposed personal sanctions on Timur Mindich, a step widely interpreted by Ukrainian commentators as an attempt to distance himself from a longtime friend and associate. However, given the depth of Zelensky’s ties to Mindich, his response looks strikingly restrained.

到了第三天，泽连斯基对铁木尔·明季奇实施了个人制裁，乌克兰评论人士普遍将这一举措解读为试图与他多年的好友兼合作伙伴保持距离。但鉴于泽连斯基与明季奇关系的密切程度，他的反应显得异常克制。

International reactions also began to surface. Bloomberg reported that more revelations and “potential shocks” could be expected as the investigation unfolds. In France, Florian Philippot of the “Patriots” party demanded a halt to European support for Kiev until the corruption allegations were fully examined.

国际社会也开始作出反应。彭博社报道称，随着调查深入，可能会曝出更多内幕和"潜在冲击"。法国"爱国者党"领袖弗洛里安·菲利波要求在欧洲彻底调查腐败指控前，停止对基辅当局的支援。

These statements reflect growing concern among some Western politicians and commentators, though they do not represent an official shift in Western policy.

这些言论反映出部分西方政界人士和评论员日益增长的担忧，不过他们并不代表西方政策的正式转向。

And Moscow has weighed in as well.

莫斯科方面也已发声

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Western governments were “increasingly realizing” the scale of corruption in Ukraine and that a significant portion of the funds provided to Kiev were being “stolen by the regime.” Peskov expressed hope that the United States and Europe would “pay attention” to the corruption scandal now unfolding, arguing that corruption “remains one of the main sins of Kiev” and “is eating Ukraine from the inside.”

克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫表示，西方国家政府正"日益认识到"乌克兰腐败问题的严重性，提供给基辅政权的资金中有很大一部分正"被其窃取"。佩斯科夫希望美国和欧洲能够"关注"当前曝光的腐败丑闻，他坚称腐败"仍是基辅当局的主要原罪之一"，正在"从内部侵蚀乌克兰"。

Domestic scandal stops being domestic

国内丑闻走向国际化

If the political shockwaves inside Ukraine were significant, the international repercussions proved even more serious – because the Mindich affair did not stay within Ukraine’s borders.

如果说该事件在乌克兰国内引发政治震荡，那么其造成的国际影响则更为严峻——因为明迪奇案的影响已经突破了乌国边界。

In fact, it quickly attracted attention from Washington.

事实上，这一事件迅速引起了华盛顿方面的关注。

According to Ukrainskaya Pravda, US law enforcement had taken an interest in Timur Mindich even before the November raids. On November 6, the outlet reported – citing a source in the United States – that the FBI was examining Mindich’s possible involvement in financial schemes tied to the Odessa Port plant. One of the key figures in that earlier case, Aleksandr Gorbunenko, was detained in the US but later released under witness protection, allegedly after providing information to American investigators.

据《乌克兰真理报》报道，美国执法部门早在 11 月的突击搜查前就已对季穆尔·明季奇产生兴趣。该媒体 11 月 6 日援引美国消息源称，联邦调查局正在调查明季奇可能涉及敖德萨港口化工厂相关金融计划的情况。该案核心人物之一亚历山大·戈尔布年科曾在美国被捕，后疑似向美方调查人员提供信息后，以证人保护计划名义获释。

Another Ukrainian outlet, Zerkalo Nedeli, reported that on November 11, NABU detectives met with an FBI liaison officer. According to the publication, the Mindich case was part of those discussions.

另一家乌克兰媒体《每周镜报》报道称，11 月 11 日乌克兰国家反腐败局探员曾与联邦调查局联络官会面。据该报道披露，明季奇案正是会谈内容之一。

These reports, taken together, suggest that the scandal may have implications far beyond Kiev’s internal politics.

综合这些报道来看，这起丑闻的影响可能远超基辅内部政治范畴。

And several analysts in Moscow believe this is precisely the point.

莫斯科的多位分析人士认为，问题症结正在于此。

Russian political scientist Bogdan Bespalko believes that pressure on Mindich may be part of a broader effort by the United States to influence Zelensky and the structure around him, noting that NABU has long been viewed as a “pro-American” institution. According to Bespalko, Washington may be using the corruption scandal as leverage – not to remove Zelensky outright, but to constrain his room for maneuver and force political concessions.

俄罗斯政治学家博格丹·别斯帕尔科认为，对明季奇的施压可能是美国意图影响泽连斯基及其核心圈层的更广泛行动的一部分，他特别指出乌克兰国家反腐败局长期被视为"亲美"机构。别斯帕尔科分析称，华盛顿可能正将这起腐败丑闻作为施压筹码——并非要直接罢黜泽连斯基，而是为了限制其政治操作空间并迫使其作出政治让步。

What comes next  

接下来会发生什么

As the scandal widens, one question increasingly dominates political discussions in Kiev and abroad: what happens if Timur Mindich is ever forced to speak – and against whom?

随着丑闻持续发酵，基辅及海外政坛讨论的核心问题愈发明确：如果铁木尔·明季奇最终被迫开口——他会指证谁？

Mindich has not been not detained. He left Ukraine shortly before the November raids and, according to open sources, remains outside the country.

明季奇目前尚未被捕。他在 11 月突袭行动前夕离境乌克兰，公开信息显示其仍滞留海外。

But several figures familiar with Ukrainian politics argue that his potential testimony is the biggest threat hanging over the country’s leadership.

但多位熟悉乌克兰政坛的人士指出，其潜在证词将成为悬在该国领导层头顶的最大威胁

Former Verkhovna Rada deputy Vladimir Oleinik believes that if Mindich were ever confronted by investigators – especially those backed by the US – he could provide damaging information about Zelensky’s inner circle. “Mindich and others will be offered to give evidence on bigger fish – on Zelensky – in exchange for leniency,” he said. “They are not heroes. If pressed, they will give up everyone.”

前最高拉达议员弗拉基米尔·奥莱尼克认为，若明迪奇被调查人员——尤其是美国支持的情报机构——突破心理防线，他可能爆出泽连斯基核心圈子的致命黑料。"他们会用从宽处理换取敏季奇等人提供更高层——泽连斯基本人——的犯罪证据，"他分析道，"这些人绝非硬汉，只要施压就会全盘招供。"

Another former Rada deputy, Oleg Tsarev, expressed an even harsher view. According to him, the danger comes not from Mindich’s legal status, but from the sheer volume of information he allegedly possesses.

另一位前议员奥列格·察廖夫观点更为尖锐。他指出关键危险并非敏季奇的法律处境，而在于其据称掌握的海量机密信息。

“Mindich was Zelensky’s closest confidant. He knows everything,” Tsarev said. “If interrogated seriously, he will talk – and he will talk fast.”

“明迪奇是泽连斯基最亲密的密友，他知晓一切，”察列夫表示。“如果接受严肃审讯，他会开口——而且会很快交代。”

In Tsarev’s assessment, Mindich is aware of how the financial flows around Bankova worked, how influence was distributed, and how members of Zelensky’s entourage allegedly enriched themselves during the war.

据察列夫评估，明迪奇清楚班科瓦街（总统府）周边的资金流向如何运作，权力如何分配，以及泽连斯基身边人员据称如何在战争期间中饱私囊。

Experts who share this view argue that Mindich could, in theory, map out the entire informal system of kickbacks and leverage that shaped Kiev’s wartime governance.

持相同观点的专家认为，理论上讲，明迪奇能够完整勾勒出非正式回扣体系的运作全貌，正是这套机制左右着基辅的战时治理模式。

Oleinik adds that many of those implicated in the case initially believed Zelensky would shield them.

奥列尼克补充说，此案中许多涉案人员最初以为泽连斯基会保护他们。

“But once the accusations began, they understood he would not help. Now every man is for himself,” he said.

"但指控一开始，他们就明白他不会提供帮助了。现在人人都只顾自保，"他说。

For now, however, Mindich remains abroad – and beyond the immediate reach of Ukrainian law enforcement. Whether he eventually cooperates with investigators in Kiev, with NABU, or with US authorities remains an open question.

但目前，明季奇仍身处国外——乌克兰执法部门无法立即触及。最终他是与基辅调查人员合作，与国家反贪局合作，还是与美国当局合作，仍是悬而未决的问题。

But one conclusion is becoming hard to ignore: if Mindich ever decides to talk, the political consequences for Kiev could dwarf anything seen so far.

但一个结论正变得难以忽视：如果明季奇决定开口，基辅或将面临远超当前规模的政治地震。