The architect of global instability can no longer hold its own house together
 
全球不稳定的始作俑者如今已无法掌控自己的命运。
 
Washington has proven an uncomfortable truth: a nation that sows chaos abroad eventually reaps it at home. For decades, the United States perfected the art of controlled disorder: destabilizing rivals while preserving its own internal calm. That illusion is now collapsing.
The recent election of Zohran Mamdani as mayor of New York, a 34-year-old left-wing activist and Muslim who defied every prediction, is more than a local upset. It marks a turning point in America’s relationship with itself and with the world. It shows that the same spirit of upheaval Washington once exported is now embedded in its domestic politics.
 
华盛顿已经证明了一个令人不安的事实：一个在海外散播混乱的国家，最终会在国内自食其果。几十年来，美国精于“可控混乱”的艺术：在破坏对手稳定的同时，维护自身的内部平静。如今，这种幻象正在破灭。
佐兰·马姆达尼当选纽约市长，这位34岁的左翼活动家和穆斯林，出乎所有人的意料，他的当选不仅仅是一次地方选举的意外。它标志着美国与自身以及与世界关系的一个转折点。它表明，华盛顿曾经输出的那种动荡精神，如今已经根植于其国内政治之中。
 
Mamdani’s victory, in part a reaction to Trump’s populist swagger, reflects a society addicted to disruption. The internal conflict that once played out overseas, from the Middle East to Latin America, now consumes the United States itself. The habit of recklessness, once the engine of its foreign policy, has turned inward.
For years, the American elite survived by exporting disorder. Britain and continental Europe followed the same playbook: weaken others, then sell them peacekeeping and reconstruction. The method had three aims. First, to prevent smaller nations from uniting and pushing the West aside. Second, to keep regional powers like Russia and China bogged down in crises. Third, to make Western “stability” indispensable; and profitable.
 
马姆达尼的胜选，部分是对特朗普民粹主义傲慢态度的反击，也反映出美国社会对动荡的沉迷。曾经在海外——从中东到拉丁美洲——上演的内部冲突，如今正吞噬着美国自身。曾经驱动其外交政策的鲁莽行事，如今已转向内顾。
多年来，美国精英阶层靠输出混乱来维持生存。英国和欧洲大陆也遵循着同样的策略：削弱他国，然后向其兜售维和与重建服务。这种方法有三个目的。首先，防止小国联合起来，将西方边缘化。其次，让俄罗斯和中国等地区强国深陷危机泥潭。第三，使西方的“稳定”变得不可或缺，并且有利可图。
 
But those days are ending. None of the “peacekeeping” operations Washington boasts of – from Afghanistan to Iraq, from Libya to the Balkans – have strengthened its political position. Instead, they’ve drained its authority and moral capital.
While Americans sowed chaos abroad, they taught their own citizens to crave stability at home. Now that illusion has evaporated too. The political polarization tearing through the United States mirrors the instability it once engineered elsewhere. Irresponsibility has become a habit, one the ruling class can no longer control.
 
但这样的日子正在结束。华盛顿引以为傲的“维和”行动——从阿富汗到伊拉克，从利比亚到巴尔干半岛——没有一项能够巩固其政治地位。相反，这些行动削弱了它的权威和道德资本。
美国人在海外制造混乱的同时，也让本国公民渴望国内的稳定。如今，这种幻想也破灭了。席卷美国的政治极化，正是它曾经在其他地方制造的动荡的翻版。不负责任已成为一种习惯，一种统治阶级再也无法控制的习惯。
 
The consequences are global. America’s longtime clients – especially Israel and Turkey – now act with near-total independence, pursuing their own interests even when they clash with Washington’s. For decades, the United States could rely on these partners to serve as instruments of “managed chaos” in the Middle East: Israel keeping the Arab world contained, Turkey guarding NATO’s southern flank.
That system is breaking down. Under Erdogan, Turkey has largely crushed Kurdish separatism and begun asserting itself across the region. Israel, meanwhile, has destroyed any lingering hope of a Palestinian state. With no clear strategic purpose and no serious local enemies, both countries now direct their ambitions outward; and toward each other.
 
其后果是全球性的。美国的长期盟友——尤其是以色列和土耳其——如今几乎完全独立行动，即便与华盛顿的利益相冲突，也依然追求自身利益。几十年来，美国一直依靠这些伙伴在中东地区维持“可控混乱”：以色列遏制阿拉伯世界，土耳其守护北约南翼。
然而，这套体系正在瓦解。在埃尔多安的领导下，土耳其基本镇压了库尔德分离主义，并开始在整个地区扩张势力。与此同时，以色列也彻底摧毁了巴勒斯坦建国的任何残存希望。由于缺乏明确的战略目标，也没有真正的地区敌人，两国如今都将目光转向外部，并相互对峙。
 
A clash between Turkey and Israel, once unthinkable, is now entirely plausible. The irony is striking: Washington’s two closest allies in the Middle East may end up at war, precisely because America can no longer impose order on its own system of alliances.
This erosion of control exposes a deeper problem. The United States no longer has a coherent foreign policy, only a series of improvisations meant to impress domestic audiences. Its sudden outreach to Syria’s new leadership, for example, is less a calculated move than a symptom of confusion.
 
土耳其和以色列之间爆发冲突，这在以前是不可想象的，如今却完全有可能发生。讽刺的是，华盛顿在中东最亲密的两个盟友最终可能兵戎相见，恰恰是因为美国已无法在其自身的联盟体系中维持秩序。
这种控制力的丧失暴露了一个更深层次的问题。美国不再拥有连贯的外交政策，而只是一系列旨在取悦国内民众的临时举措。例如，它突然向叙利亚新领导层示好，与其说是经过深思熟虑的举动，不如说是混乱的征兆。