二战时期的意大利能击败一战时期的德国吗？
Could WW2 Italy defeat WW1 Germany?
译文简介
德国军队拥有最完善的兵种整合体系、优秀的战术家、一流的士官队伍，并且秉持着在战场上自主决策、向基层指挥官（甚至班、连级等）授权的理念。
正文翻译
Could WW2 Italy defeat WW1 Germany?
二战时期的意大利能击败一战时期的德国吗？
Short answer: No—an Italy equipped, organized, and led as in World War II would not likely defeat Germany as it existed in World War I. The gap in industrial scale, manpower systems, logistics, leadership, doctrine, and strategic positioning favors Germany (1914–18) in most plausible measures. Below are the key factors and a few illustrative scenarios.
简短回答：不能——一支按照二战时期的装备、编制和指挥模式组建的意大利军队，不太可能击败一战时期的德国。在工业规模、人力体系、后勤保障、领导力、军事理论和战略态势等方面，两者存在明显差距，从大多数合理衡量标准来看，优势都倾向于1914-1918年的德国。以下是关键影响因素及几个说明性场景。
Why WW1 Germany is advantaged
为何一战德国更具优势
Industrial base and mobilisation:
Germany (1914–18) had one of Europe’s largest heavy industries, integrated chemical and steel sectors, and a wartime mobilisation system that produced millions of rifles, artillery pieces, shells, locomotives and munitions.
Italy (1939–45) suffered chronic industrial shortfalls, lower output of heavy industry and armaments per capita, and logistical weaknesses exposed in Greek and North African campaigns.
工业基础与动员能力：
1914-1918年的德国拥有欧洲规模最大的重工业之一，化工与钢铁产业高度整合，其战时动员体系能生产数百万支步枪、火炮、炮弹、火车头及军需物资。
1939-45年的意大利长期面临工业产能不足的问题，重工业和军备的人均产量较低，且在希腊和北非战役中，其后勤保障的薄弱环节也暴露无遗。
Manpower and training:
Imperial Germany mobilised ~13 million men during WWI with an officer corps steeped in staff-college doctrine (Schlieffen-derived planning, Auftragstaktik roots).
Italy in WWII mobilised fewer trained reserves, had lower conscxtion quality early, and suffered chronic shortages of trained NCOs and technical specialists.
人力与训练水平：
一战期间，德意志帝国动员了约1300万人参军，其军官群体深受参谋学院理论的熏陶（包括基于施里芬计划的战略规划、 Auftragstaktik 战术思想的雏形）。
二战时期的意大利动员的训练有素的预备役人员数量更少，战争初期征兵质量较低，且长期缺乏训练有素的士官和技术专业人员。
Doctrine, staff and combined arms:
WWI German army developed modern staff procedures, effective artillery-observation-fire control, and flexible infiltration tactics by 1918.
Italian WWII doctrine was often rigid, politically influenced, and poorly integrated (artillery-infantry coordination, mechanisation). When Germany refined combined-arms in late WWI, it could close effects gaps against less integrated foes.
军事理论、参谋体系与诸军兵种协同：
到1918年时，一战德国陆军已形成现代化的参谋流程、高效的炮兵观测与火力控制体系，以及灵活的渗透战术。
二战意大利的军事理论往往僵化且受政治因素影响，各兵种协同能力薄弱（如步炮协同、机械化部队运用）。而德国在一战后期已完善诸军兵种协同作战模式，面对协同能力较差的对手时，能够弥补作战效能上的差距。
Logistics and internal lines:
Germany’s position in central Europe provided dense rail networks and shorter interior lines to redistribute forces; raw material access (coal, iron) and chemical industry supported sustained operations.
Italy’s geography (mountain frontier, long coasts), weaker rail/road network and dependence on Mediterranean supply lines constrain sustained offensive operations.
后勤保障与内线优势：
德国地处欧洲中部，拥有密集的铁路网络和更短的内线交通线，便于重新部署兵力；其对煤炭、铁矿石等原材料的获取能力，以及发达的化工产业，为长期作战提供了支撑。
意大利的地理条件（多山的边境、漫长的海岸线）、相对薄弱的铁路和公路网络，以及对地中海补给线的依赖，都限制了其开展持续的进攻行动。
Leadership and cohesion:
German army leadership, despite political strains, demonstrated operational innovation and resilience under heavy pressure.
Italian officer corps under Mussolini showed political interference, low morale in many units, and a poorer record of improvisation and recovery.
领导力与凝聚力：
尽管面临政治压力，德国陆军领导层仍展现出战术创新能力和强韧的抗压性。
墨索里尼领导下的意大利军官团受到政治干预，许多部队士气低落，在随机应变和战局恢复方面的表现也较差。
Why WW2 Italy would bring advantages—why a German defeat is not automatic
为何二战意大利具备一定优势——德国并非必然获胜
More modern equipment in some areas:
Italy 1940s fielded tanks, aircraft and motor vehicles that were technologically newer than WWI-era German gear. In a direct firefight with WWI small arms and artillery models, modern aircraft and armour can create local breakthroughs.
部分领域装备更先进：
20世纪40年代的意大利部署了坦克、飞机和机动车辆，这些装备在技术上比一战时期的德国装备更新颖。在与一战时期的轻武器和火炮直接交火时，现代化的飞机和装甲车辆能够实现局部突破。
Air power and mechanisation:
Italian air force (Regia Aeronautica) and more motorized units could exploit WWI-era Germany’s lack of effective air defence and limited anti-air doctrine early in the war.
空中力量与机械化水平：
意大利空军（Regia Aeronautica）和更多的摩托化部队，能够利用一战时期德国缺乏有效防空手段、防空理论有限的弱点，尤其在战争初期效果显著。
Naval and Mediterranean options:
Italy could project power in the Mediterranean and threaten German coastal supply or force peripheral engagements.
海军实力与地中海战略选择：
意大利能够在地中海投射力量，威胁德国的海岸补给线，或迫使德国在边缘地区投入作战。
How the contest likely plays out (plausible scenarios)
这场对抗可能的走向（合理场景推演）
1) Europe 1914 primacy scenario: If WWI Germany faces an Italy whose army is transplanted in 1914 positions, Italy’s modern kit helps only so far. Germany’s mass mobilisation, interior lines and allies (Austro-Hungary, Ottoman Empire) plus industrial surge would likely overwhelm Italian fronts. Outcome: German strategic victory or stalemate favoring Central Powers.
1）1914年欧洲主导格局场景：若一战时期的德国面对一支被“移植”到1914年战场位置的意大利军队，意大利的现代化装备仅能发挥有限作用。德国的大规模动员能力、内线优势、盟友（奥匈帝国、奥斯曼帝国）支持，再加上工业产能的爆发，很可能会压制意大利战线。结果：德国取得战略胜利，或形成有利于同盟国的僵局。
2) Limited front, tactical shock scenario: If conflict is localized and Italy can use air and armoured units in concentrated, modern combined-arms operations against German sectors lacking late-war 1918 tactics, Italy could score tactical victories and prize territory. But strategic sustainability (munitions, replacements) would be the deciding factor—favoring Germany.
2）有限战线、战术突袭场景：若冲突局限于局部地区，且意大利能集中空中和装甲部队，以现代化诸军兵种协同战术，对抗尚未掌握1918年战争后期战术的德国部队，意大利可能取得战术胜利并夺取关键领土。但战略可持续性（军需物资、兵力补充）将成为决定性因素，这一因素对德国更有利。
3) Long war of attrition: Modern Italian equipment cannot substitute for the deep industrial base and manpower Germany brought to a prolonged war. Without external allies supplying massive war matériel, Italy’s initial advantages erode. Outcome: German strategic advantage.
3）长期消耗战场景：意大利的现代化装备无法替代德国在长期战争中所依赖的深厚工业基础和充足人力。若没有外部盟友提供大量战争物资，意大利的初期优势将逐渐消退。结果：德国占据战略优势。
Critical modifiers that could flip outcomes
可能扭转战局的关键变量
Allies and resources: If Italy had access to Allied-level industry (Britain/France) or global resource flows, the balance changes. Conversely, if Germany lost access to coal/iron or its mobilization collapsed early, Italy’s relative position improves.
Political will and leadership: A highly competent Italian general staff and Mussolini-free political control concentrating on total war could extract more from Italy’s modernization.
Timing and surprise: Early use of combined-arms and air interdiction might paralyze German mobilisation nodes, giving Italy disproportionate leverage—but such operational precision is historically demanding.
盟友与资源：若意大利能获得同盟国级别的工业支持（如英国、法国）或全球资源供应，战局平衡将发生改变。相反，若德国失去煤炭、铁矿石等关键资源的获取渠道，或其动员体系早早崩溃，意大利的相对优势将有所提升。
政治意愿与领导力：一支能力卓越的意大利总参谋部，以及摆脱墨索里尼影响、专注于全面战争的政治管控，能够更大程度地发挥意大利现代化建设的成效。
时机与突袭：尽早运用诸军兵种协同作战和空中遮断战术，可能瘫痪德国的动员节点，让意大利获得不对称优势——但这种战术精准度在历史上极难实现。
On balance, WWI Germany’s systemic advantages in industrial output, mobilisation, manpower, logistics and mature staff doctrine outstrip the tactical and technological improvements Italy had in WWII. Italy could win engagements and create local operational shock, but sustaining a prolonged strategic victory against an industrialised, mobilised Germany of 1914–18 is unlikely without major external support or drastic German self-inflicted crises.
Conclusion
总体而言，一战德国在工业产出、动员能力、人力储备、后勤保障和成熟参谋理论方面的系统性优势，超过了二战意大利在战术和技术上的进步。意大利可能赢得部分战役并造成局部作战冲击，但若无大规模外部支持或德国出现严重自致危机，要对1914-1918年工业化、全动员状态的德国取得长期战略胜利，可能性极低。
结论
Magnus Johansson Studied History at Lund University
隆德大学历史学专业 2年前
Yes, and probably without too much trouble.
Germany mobilised 13,5 million men in WWI compared to four million by Italy in WWII. However the technology of the WWII Italian military was decades ahead resulting in way superior firepower and mobility.
是的，而且大概率不会太费力。
一战中德国动员了1350万人，而二战中意大利的动员人数为400万。但二战意大利军队的技术领先了数十年，带来了远超对方的火力和机动性。
Italian tanks may not have been world beaters in 1940 but compared to Imperial Germany’s misbegotten A7V they were. WWII aircraft were way superior to WWI specimens. Even a WWII biplane like the Italian Fiat Falco had more than twice the speed and almost double the service ceiling of a top WWI fighter like the Fokker DVII. The level of motorisation and mechanisation of the WWII Italian military may not have been very high but was, again, way higher than the foot slogging WWI Germans.
1940年的意大利坦克或许算不上世界顶尖，但相较于德意志帝国设计蹩脚的A7V坦克，已然占据优势。二战时期的飞机也远超一战机型，即便是意大利菲亚特“猎鹰”这类二战双翼机，速度也达到了福克DVII等一战顶尖战斗机的两倍多，升限更是接近翻倍。二战意大利军队的摩托化和机械化水平或许不算高，但仍远胜于以徒步机动为主的一战德国军队。
As for the navy, this was probably Italy’s strongest arm in WWII and unmodernised WWI battleships were hopelessly outclassed against their WWII counterparts.
Germany mobilised 13,5 million men in WWI compared to four million by Italy in WWII. However the technology of the WWII Italian military was decades ahead resulting in way superior firepower and mobility.
至于海军，这或许是二战意大利最强的兵种，未经过现代化改造的一战战列舰，在二战同类舰艇面前完全处于劣势，毫无竞争力。
唯一能阻止二战意大利击败一战德国的，只有阿尔卑斯山脉。
Pictured: Italian tanks attacking in the desert. The Kaiserheer did not have an answer to WWII tanks, even if they were not world champions.
配图：意大利坦克在沙漠中发起进攻。即便是并非世界顶尖的二战坦克，德意志帝国陆军也毫无应对之策。
Daniel Lee Classicist and historian (MA in Ancient History)
古典学者、历史学家（古代史硕士） 8年前
Yes, without a shadow of a doubt. Italy may not be a major power militarily, but amongst Europe it has one of the largest armies, with a number of modern tanks, tank destroyers, troop carriers, and fighter planes. The technological gap would mean it would be over in weeks, not months.
毫无疑问，能。意大利或许算不上军事大国，但在欧洲范围内，它拥有规模最大的军队之一，装备有大量现代化坦克、坦克歼击车、运兵车和战斗机。巨大的技术差距意味着这场战争将在数周内结束，而非数月。
Italy would quickly gain complete air superiority thanks to its fleet of Typhoons. Italy nominally has around 70 of these, but lets imagine that with maintenance and everything they can only fly around 30 of them at any one time. These 30 could still shoot down everything and anything the Germans sent their way. The Luftwaffe would be either completely destroyed or effectively grounded for the remainder of the war in days (not weeks, days). After that, the Italians could then use their air power to smash Germany’s tanks on the ground.
凭借“台风”战斗机群，意大利将迅速夺取制空权。意大利名义上拥有约70架该型战机，但考虑到维护等因素，假设任何时候仅有约30架能投入飞行，这30架战机仍能击落德国派出的所有空中目标。德国空军要么会在数天内（不是数周，是数天）被彻底摧毁，要么在战争剩余时间里实质上陷入停飞状态。之后，意大利便可利用空中力量摧毁德国地面坦克。
The Typhoons, having laser guided bombs would be able to do this, but most effective would be Italy’s fleet of Agusta A129 Mangusta attack helicopters. Attack helicopters are literally designed to wipe out tank columns. The Mangusta was designed to take out late Cold War era Warsaw pact tanks - I’m sure it will have little problems destroying WW2 era tanks, including Tiger tanks for all the fanboys. Italy also has a number of Ariete tanks that would prove more or less impervious to anything in the German armoury at the period, providing the Italians don’t be complacent and allow the Germans to shoot at their tanks from behind with 88s from point blank range. For the most part, these would be driving past columns of burnt out wreckages but there may be occasion for the tanks to get involved.
“台风”战机配备激光制导炸弹，能够完成这一任务，但效果最显著的当属意大利的阿古斯塔A129“猫鼬”攻击直升机群。攻击直升机的设计初衷就是摧毁坦克纵队，“猫鼬”更是为打击冷战后期华约集团坦克而研发——想必摧毁二战时期的坦克（包括粉丝们追捧的虎式坦克）不会有任何问题。意大利还拥有多款“公羊”坦克，只要意大利军队不骄傲自满，不给德国军队利用88毫米高射炮近距离从后方攻击的机会，这些坦克对当时德国军械库中的任何武器都基本免疫。多数情况下，这些坦克只会驶过一排排燃烧的残骸，但也可能有需要它们直接参战的场景。
The Italian Army is also fully mechanised, and so the Italians would have no trouble whatsoever overtaking and cutting off large numbers of retreating German soldiers, beating them to strategic locations like bridges etc so their advance would both be rapid and take a lot of Germans prisoners. Bear in mind, Italy also shares a border with Greater Germany, so Austria would be taken in days, Munich probably within a week and Berlin definitely within the month.
意大利陆军完全实现了机械化，因此他们能毫无困难地追上并切断大量撤退的德国士兵的退路，抢占桥梁等战略要地，推进速度会很快，同时俘虏大量德军。要知道，意大利与大德意志帝国接壤，因此奥地利能在数天内被攻占，慕尼黑大概率一周内沦陷，柏林则肯定能在一个月内被拿下。
Marc Laplante Worked at Police and Law Enforcement
曾任职于警察与执法部门 8年前更新
WW2 Italy was essentially fighting with WW1 arms; their small arms and artillery were essentially a generation old at least; a substantial part of their WW2 artillery was war booty from the Great War. But it takes more than weapons to win wars. The german army in both wars was a solid organization with excellent NCOs and a professional officer corps. The meagre “modern” weapons the Italians had would not have been enough to crack a determined German Army, even if you prevented the Germans from “catching up” in technology (having a prolific science community, unlike Italy)
二战时期的意大利本质上是在用一战时期的武器作战，其轻武器和火炮至少落后了一代，二战时期的火炮有相当一部分是一战时期的战利品。但赢得战争需要的不仅仅是武器，德国军队在两次世界大战中都是组织严密的部队，拥有优秀的士官队伍和专业的军官团。即便阻止德国人在技术上“追赶”（德国拥有活跃的科学界，这一点与意大利不同），意大利所拥有的少量“现代化”武器也不足以击败意志坚定的德国军队。
Paolo Cuzzato Today is History stuff I had read in newspapers
历史相关内容均来自报纸报道 8年前
According to the military power rankings you find on the net, Italy could give today’s Germany a run for her money.
The two nations come out on average as approximatively even-matched, with the precise rank depending on the different weight each survey gives to the various components (in one, for example, Italy is far ahead on the strength of his blue-green water Navy - a factor not much important in a war with Germany, I suppose!).
I was surprised myself, to tell the truth.
根据网上的军事力量排名，意大利有能力与如今的德国一较高下。
这两个国家的平均排名大致不相上下，具体排名取决于每项调查对不同军事组成部分的权重分配（例如，在某项排名中，意大利凭借其蓝水海军和绿水海军的实力遥遥领先——我认为，这一因素在与德国的战争中并不太重要！）。
说实话，我自己也感到很惊讶。
Graham B Lived in Germany 2014–2021
2014–2021年居住于德国
Absolutely not.
绝对不能。
No european country could defeat ww2 because of the numbers game. Germany had over 100 divisions with enough supplies for months and factories to replace consumption.
Italy can deploy half a division with supplies for a week. This can protect a 20 km * 20 km area
The quality of weapons is irrelevant when the number of high cost weapons is less than 1 hundredth of the low cost targets. The german army could advance on a front of over 1000 km
由于兵力和物资的数量差距，没有任何欧洲国家能击败二战时期的德国。德国拥有100多个师，物资储备足以支撑数月，还有工厂能够补充消耗。
意大利仅能部署半个师的兵力，物资仅够维持一周，这些力量只能防守一个20公里×20公里的区域。
当高价武器的数量还不到廉价目标的百分之一时，武器质量就变得无关紧要了。而德国军队能够在超过1000公里的战线发起进攻。
Paul Weston
The really big advantage to my mind, would be the modern Italian airforce of ww2, which could probably have blown the crap out of German industry, German military installations, and German infrastructure as a whole, with relative inpunity.
在我看来，最大的优势在于二战时期意大利的现代化空军，它大概率能毫无顾忌地重创德国的工业设施、军事基地以及整体基础设施。
Mussolini wound up hanging by his heels. Hitler stayed in control until Berlin was about to fall, and was allowed to die by his own hand and be cremated. This really shows you the major reason for the difference between Italy and Germany in war. The Italian people are not dumb enough to fight hard in a war that will gain them little if they win, and bring catastrophe if they lose.
墨索里尼最终被倒吊处决，希特勒则一直掌控权力直到柏林即将沦陷，最终得以自杀并被火化。这一事实恰恰揭示了意大利和德国在战争中的核心差异：意大利人民没那么愚蠢，不会为一场赢了获益甚少、输了则招致灾难的战争拼死作战。
Brigitte Meier Lived in Germany
居住于德国
No, of course not.
当然不能。
Italy field armed forces in the strength of about 100 000 soldiers, Germany had roughly 580 000 beginning 1939 and 5 mi at the end of 1939.
Higher officers had combat experience, NCO were the product of 12 year training and service in Reichswehr and early Wehrmacht, so we are talking about a different breed.
意大利现役兵力约为10万人，而德国在1939年初约有58万人，到1939年底已增至500万人。
德国的高级军官拥有实战经验，士官则是经过在魏玛共和国国防军和早期德国国防军长达12年的训练与服役培养而成，完全是另一水准的军人。
Firstly, war is won by number or boots on the ground. How often can you attack a position, when are your soldiers worn out, can you keep the territory you just conquered, how safe are your rear areas/logistics?
And in regard to equipment, how often can your planes take off, how many spare parts do you have, how many specialists to repair it? So an army with very modern equipment does not necessarily have an advantage over a low tech opponent.
In contrast to the opinions and expectations of many, the German army was not the best equipped, the army with the highest motorization, best guns, best tanks, planes, etc. Not at all.'\\\\
首先，战争的胜利取决于地面兵力规模。你能对一个阵地发起多少次进攻？士兵何时会疲惫不堪？能否守住刚攻占的领土？后方区域和后勤保障的安全性如何？
而在装备方面，你的飞机能起飞多少次？有多少备用零件？有多少专业维修人员？因此，装备高度现代化的军队，未必能比技术水平较低的对手更具优势。
与许多人的看法和预期相反，德国军队并非装备最精良、摩托化程度最高、拥有最佳火炮、坦克和飞机等装备的军队，完全不是。
The Germans had the best integrated structure of arms, very good tacticians, first rate NCO and the concept of finding decisions on the battlefield or giving authority to the unit leaders (even squad, company, etc).
So the engineering marvel Germans were very good at soft skills. What an Irony!
德国军队拥有最完善的兵种整合体系、优秀的战术家、一流的士官队伍，并且秉持着在战场上自主决策、向基层指挥官（甚至班、连级等）授权的理念。
如此看来，以工程奇迹著称的德国人，反倒极其擅长这些“软技能”，真是颇具讽刺意味！
二战时期的意大利能击败一战时期的德国吗？
Short answer: No—an Italy equipped, organized, and led as in World War II would not likely defeat Germany as it existed in World War I. The gap in industrial scale, manpower systems, logistics, leadership, doctrine, and strategic positioning favors Germany (1914–18) in most plausible measures. Below are the key factors and a few illustrative scenarios.
简短回答：不能——一支按照二战时期的装备、编制和指挥模式组建的意大利军队，不太可能击败一战时期的德国。在工业规模、人力体系、后勤保障、领导力、军事理论和战略态势等方面，两者存在明显差距，从大多数合理衡量标准来看，优势都倾向于1914-1918年的德国。以下是关键影响因素及几个说明性场景。
Why WW1 Germany is advantaged
为何一战德国更具优势
Industrial base and mobilisation:
Germany (1914–18) had one of Europe’s largest heavy industries, integrated chemical and steel sectors, and a wartime mobilisation system that produced millions of rifles, artillery pieces, shells, locomotives and munitions.
Italy (1939–45) suffered chronic industrial shortfalls, lower output of heavy industry and armaments per capita, and logistical weaknesses exposed in Greek and North African campaigns.
工业基础与动员能力：
1914-1918年的德国拥有欧洲规模最大的重工业之一，化工与钢铁产业高度整合，其战时动员体系能生产数百万支步枪、火炮、炮弹、火车头及军需物资。
1939-45年的意大利长期面临工业产能不足的问题，重工业和军备的人均产量较低，且在希腊和北非战役中，其后勤保障的薄弱环节也暴露无遗。
Manpower and training:
Imperial Germany mobilised ~13 million men during WWI with an officer corps steeped in staff-college doctrine (Schlieffen-derived planning, Auftragstaktik roots).
Italy in WWII mobilised fewer trained reserves, had lower conscxtion quality early, and suffered chronic shortages of trained NCOs and technical specialists.
人力与训练水平：
一战期间，德意志帝国动员了约1300万人参军，其军官群体深受参谋学院理论的熏陶（包括基于施里芬计划的战略规划、 Auftragstaktik 战术思想的雏形）。
二战时期的意大利动员的训练有素的预备役人员数量更少，战争初期征兵质量较低，且长期缺乏训练有素的士官和技术专业人员。
Doctrine, staff and combined arms:
WWI German army developed modern staff procedures, effective artillery-observation-fire control, and flexible infiltration tactics by 1918.
Italian WWII doctrine was often rigid, politically influenced, and poorly integrated (artillery-infantry coordination, mechanisation). When Germany refined combined-arms in late WWI, it could close effects gaps against less integrated foes.
军事理论、参谋体系与诸军兵种协同：
到1918年时，一战德国陆军已形成现代化的参谋流程、高效的炮兵观测与火力控制体系，以及灵活的渗透战术。
二战意大利的军事理论往往僵化且受政治因素影响，各兵种协同能力薄弱（如步炮协同、机械化部队运用）。而德国在一战后期已完善诸军兵种协同作战模式，面对协同能力较差的对手时，能够弥补作战效能上的差距。
Logistics and internal lines:
Germany’s position in central Europe provided dense rail networks and shorter interior lines to redistribute forces; raw material access (coal, iron) and chemical industry supported sustained operations.
Italy’s geography (mountain frontier, long coasts), weaker rail/road network and dependence on Mediterranean supply lines constrain sustained offensive operations.
后勤保障与内线优势：
德国地处欧洲中部，拥有密集的铁路网络和更短的内线交通线，便于重新部署兵力；其对煤炭、铁矿石等原材料的获取能力，以及发达的化工产业，为长期作战提供了支撑。
意大利的地理条件（多山的边境、漫长的海岸线）、相对薄弱的铁路和公路网络，以及对地中海补给线的依赖，都限制了其开展持续的进攻行动。
Leadership and cohesion:
German army leadership, despite political strains, demonstrated operational innovation and resilience under heavy pressure.
Italian officer corps under Mussolini showed political interference, low morale in many units, and a poorer record of improvisation and recovery.
领导力与凝聚力：
尽管面临政治压力，德国陆军领导层仍展现出战术创新能力和强韧的抗压性。
墨索里尼领导下的意大利军官团受到政治干预，许多部队士气低落，在随机应变和战局恢复方面的表现也较差。
Why WW2 Italy would bring advantages—why a German defeat is not automatic
为何二战意大利具备一定优势——德国并非必然获胜
More modern equipment in some areas:
Italy 1940s fielded tanks, aircraft and motor vehicles that were technologically newer than WWI-era German gear. In a direct firefight with WWI small arms and artillery models, modern aircraft and armour can create local breakthroughs.
部分领域装备更先进：
20世纪40年代的意大利部署了坦克、飞机和机动车辆，这些装备在技术上比一战时期的德国装备更新颖。在与一战时期的轻武器和火炮直接交火时，现代化的飞机和装甲车辆能够实现局部突破。
Air power and mechanisation:
Italian air force (Regia Aeronautica) and more motorized units could exploit WWI-era Germany’s lack of effective air defence and limited anti-air doctrine early in the war.
空中力量与机械化水平：
意大利空军（Regia Aeronautica）和更多的摩托化部队，能够利用一战时期德国缺乏有效防空手段、防空理论有限的弱点，尤其在战争初期效果显著。
Naval and Mediterranean options:
Italy could project power in the Mediterranean and threaten German coastal supply or force peripheral engagements.
海军实力与地中海战略选择：
意大利能够在地中海投射力量，威胁德国的海岸补给线，或迫使德国在边缘地区投入作战。
How the contest likely plays out (plausible scenarios)
这场对抗可能的走向（合理场景推演）
1) Europe 1914 primacy scenario: If WWI Germany faces an Italy whose army is transplanted in 1914 positions, Italy’s modern kit helps only so far. Germany’s mass mobilisation, interior lines and allies (Austro-Hungary, Ottoman Empire) plus industrial surge would likely overwhelm Italian fronts. Outcome: German strategic victory or stalemate favoring Central Powers.
1）1914年欧洲主导格局场景：若一战时期的德国面对一支被“移植”到1914年战场位置的意大利军队，意大利的现代化装备仅能发挥有限作用。德国的大规模动员能力、内线优势、盟友（奥匈帝国、奥斯曼帝国）支持，再加上工业产能的爆发，很可能会压制意大利战线。结果：德国取得战略胜利，或形成有利于同盟国的僵局。
2) Limited front, tactical shock scenario: If conflict is localized and Italy can use air and armoured units in concentrated, modern combined-arms operations against German sectors lacking late-war 1918 tactics, Italy could score tactical victories and prize territory. But strategic sustainability (munitions, replacements) would be the deciding factor—favoring Germany.
2）有限战线、战术突袭场景：若冲突局限于局部地区，且意大利能集中空中和装甲部队，以现代化诸军兵种协同战术，对抗尚未掌握1918年战争后期战术的德国部队，意大利可能取得战术胜利并夺取关键领土。但战略可持续性（军需物资、兵力补充）将成为决定性因素，这一因素对德国更有利。
3) Long war of attrition: Modern Italian equipment cannot substitute for the deep industrial base and manpower Germany brought to a prolonged war. Without external allies supplying massive war matériel, Italy’s initial advantages erode. Outcome: German strategic advantage.
3）长期消耗战场景：意大利的现代化装备无法替代德国在长期战争中所依赖的深厚工业基础和充足人力。若没有外部盟友提供大量战争物资，意大利的初期优势将逐渐消退。结果：德国占据战略优势。
Critical modifiers that could flip outcomes
可能扭转战局的关键变量
Allies and resources: If Italy had access to Allied-level industry (Britain/France) or global resource flows, the balance changes. Conversely, if Germany lost access to coal/iron or its mobilization collapsed early, Italy’s relative position improves.
Political will and leadership: A highly competent Italian general staff and Mussolini-free political control concentrating on total war could extract more from Italy’s modernization.
Timing and surprise: Early use of combined-arms and air interdiction might paralyze German mobilisation nodes, giving Italy disproportionate leverage—but such operational precision is historically demanding.
盟友与资源：若意大利能获得同盟国级别的工业支持（如英国、法国）或全球资源供应，战局平衡将发生改变。相反，若德国失去煤炭、铁矿石等关键资源的获取渠道，或其动员体系早早崩溃，意大利的相对优势将有所提升。
政治意愿与领导力：一支能力卓越的意大利总参谋部，以及摆脱墨索里尼影响、专注于全面战争的政治管控，能够更大程度地发挥意大利现代化建设的成效。
时机与突袭：尽早运用诸军兵种协同作战和空中遮断战术，可能瘫痪德国的动员节点，让意大利获得不对称优势——但这种战术精准度在历史上极难实现。
On balance, WWI Germany’s systemic advantages in industrial output, mobilisation, manpower, logistics and mature staff doctrine outstrip the tactical and technological improvements Italy had in WWII. Italy could win engagements and create local operational shock, but sustaining a prolonged strategic victory against an industrialised, mobilised Germany of 1914–18 is unlikely without major external support or drastic German self-inflicted crises.
Conclusion
总体而言，一战德国在工业产出、动员能力、人力储备、后勤保障和成熟参谋理论方面的系统性优势，超过了二战意大利在战术和技术上的进步。意大利可能赢得部分战役并造成局部作战冲击，但若无大规模外部支持或德国出现严重自致危机，要对1914-1918年工业化、全动员状态的德国取得长期战略胜利，可能性极低。
结论
Magnus Johansson Studied History at Lund University
隆德大学历史学专业 2年前
Yes, and probably without too much trouble.
Germany mobilised 13,5 million men in WWI compared to four million by Italy in WWII. However the technology of the WWII Italian military was decades ahead resulting in way superior firepower and mobility.
是的，而且大概率不会太费力。
一战中德国动员了1350万人，而二战中意大利的动员人数为400万。但二战意大利军队的技术领先了数十年，带来了远超对方的火力和机动性。
Italian tanks may not have been world beaters in 1940 but compared to Imperial Germany’s misbegotten A7V they were. WWII aircraft were way superior to WWI specimens. Even a WWII biplane like the Italian Fiat Falco had more than twice the speed and almost double the service ceiling of a top WWI fighter like the Fokker DVII. The level of motorisation and mechanisation of the WWII Italian military may not have been very high but was, again, way higher than the foot slogging WWI Germans.
1940年的意大利坦克或许算不上世界顶尖，但相较于德意志帝国设计蹩脚的A7V坦克，已然占据优势。二战时期的飞机也远超一战机型，即便是意大利菲亚特“猎鹰”这类二战双翼机，速度也达到了福克DVII等一战顶尖战斗机的两倍多，升限更是接近翻倍。二战意大利军队的摩托化和机械化水平或许不算高，但仍远胜于以徒步机动为主的一战德国军队。
As for the navy, this was probably Italy’s strongest arm in WWII and unmodernised WWI battleships were hopelessly outclassed against their WWII counterparts.
Germany mobilised 13,5 million men in WWI compared to four million by Italy in WWII. However the technology of the WWII Italian military was decades ahead resulting in way superior firepower and mobility.
至于海军，这或许是二战意大利最强的兵种，未经过现代化改造的一战战列舰，在二战同类舰艇面前完全处于劣势，毫无竞争力。
唯一能阻止二战意大利击败一战德国的，只有阿尔卑斯山脉。
Pictured: Italian tanks attacking in the desert. The Kaiserheer did not have an answer to WWII tanks, even if they were not world champions.
配图：意大利坦克在沙漠中发起进攻。即便是并非世界顶尖的二战坦克，德意志帝国陆军也毫无应对之策。
Daniel Lee Classicist and historian (MA in Ancient History)
古典学者、历史学家（古代史硕士） 8年前
Yes, without a shadow of a doubt. Italy may not be a major power militarily, but amongst Europe it has one of the largest armies, with a number of modern tanks, tank destroyers, troop carriers, and fighter planes. The technological gap would mean it would be over in weeks, not months.
毫无疑问，能。意大利或许算不上军事大国，但在欧洲范围内，它拥有规模最大的军队之一，装备有大量现代化坦克、坦克歼击车、运兵车和战斗机。巨大的技术差距意味着这场战争将在数周内结束，而非数月。
Italy would quickly gain complete air superiority thanks to its fleet of Typhoons. Italy nominally has around 70 of these, but lets imagine that with maintenance and everything they can only fly around 30 of them at any one time. These 30 could still shoot down everything and anything the Germans sent their way. The Luftwaffe would be either completely destroyed or effectively grounded for the remainder of the war in days (not weeks, days). After that, the Italians could then use their air power to smash Germany’s tanks on the ground.
凭借“台风”战斗机群，意大利将迅速夺取制空权。意大利名义上拥有约70架该型战机，但考虑到维护等因素，假设任何时候仅有约30架能投入飞行，这30架战机仍能击落德国派出的所有空中目标。德国空军要么会在数天内（不是数周，是数天）被彻底摧毁，要么在战争剩余时间里实质上陷入停飞状态。之后，意大利便可利用空中力量摧毁德国地面坦克。
The Typhoons, having laser guided bombs would be able to do this, but most effective would be Italy’s fleet of Agusta A129 Mangusta attack helicopters. Attack helicopters are literally designed to wipe out tank columns. The Mangusta was designed to take out late Cold War era Warsaw pact tanks - I’m sure it will have little problems destroying WW2 era tanks, including Tiger tanks for all the fanboys. Italy also has a number of Ariete tanks that would prove more or less impervious to anything in the German armoury at the period, providing the Italians don’t be complacent and allow the Germans to shoot at their tanks from behind with 88s from point blank range. For the most part, these would be driving past columns of burnt out wreckages but there may be occasion for the tanks to get involved.
“台风”战机配备激光制导炸弹，能够完成这一任务，但效果最显著的当属意大利的阿古斯塔A129“猫鼬”攻击直升机群。攻击直升机的设计初衷就是摧毁坦克纵队，“猫鼬”更是为打击冷战后期华约集团坦克而研发——想必摧毁二战时期的坦克（包括粉丝们追捧的虎式坦克）不会有任何问题。意大利还拥有多款“公羊”坦克，只要意大利军队不骄傲自满，不给德国军队利用88毫米高射炮近距离从后方攻击的机会，这些坦克对当时德国军械库中的任何武器都基本免疫。多数情况下，这些坦克只会驶过一排排燃烧的残骸，但也可能有需要它们直接参战的场景。
The Italian Army is also fully mechanised, and so the Italians would have no trouble whatsoever overtaking and cutting off large numbers of retreating German soldiers, beating them to strategic locations like bridges etc so their advance would both be rapid and take a lot of Germans prisoners. Bear in mind, Italy also shares a border with Greater Germany, so Austria would be taken in days, Munich probably within a week and Berlin definitely within the month.
意大利陆军完全实现了机械化，因此他们能毫无困难地追上并切断大量撤退的德国士兵的退路，抢占桥梁等战略要地，推进速度会很快，同时俘虏大量德军。要知道，意大利与大德意志帝国接壤，因此奥地利能在数天内被攻占，慕尼黑大概率一周内沦陷，柏林则肯定能在一个月内被拿下。
Marc Laplante Worked at Police and Law Enforcement
曾任职于警察与执法部门 8年前更新
WW2 Italy was essentially fighting with WW1 arms; their small arms and artillery were essentially a generation old at least; a substantial part of their WW2 artillery was war booty from the Great War. But it takes more than weapons to win wars. The german army in both wars was a solid organization with excellent NCOs and a professional officer corps. The meagre “modern” weapons the Italians had would not have been enough to crack a determined German Army, even if you prevented the Germans from “catching up” in technology (having a prolific science community, unlike Italy)
二战时期的意大利本质上是在用一战时期的武器作战，其轻武器和火炮至少落后了一代，二战时期的火炮有相当一部分是一战时期的战利品。但赢得战争需要的不仅仅是武器，德国军队在两次世界大战中都是组织严密的部队，拥有优秀的士官队伍和专业的军官团。即便阻止德国人在技术上“追赶”（德国拥有活跃的科学界，这一点与意大利不同），意大利所拥有的少量“现代化”武器也不足以击败意志坚定的德国军队。
Paolo Cuzzato Today is History stuff I had read in newspapers
历史相关内容均来自报纸报道 8年前
According to the military power rankings you find on the net, Italy could give today’s Germany a run for her money.
The two nations come out on average as approximatively even-matched, with the precise rank depending on the different weight each survey gives to the various components (in one, for example, Italy is far ahead on the strength of his blue-green water Navy - a factor not much important in a war with Germany, I suppose!).
I was surprised myself, to tell the truth.
根据网上的军事力量排名，意大利有能力与如今的德国一较高下。
这两个国家的平均排名大致不相上下，具体排名取决于每项调查对不同军事组成部分的权重分配（例如，在某项排名中，意大利凭借其蓝水海军和绿水海军的实力遥遥领先——我认为，这一因素在与德国的战争中并不太重要！）。
说实话，我自己也感到很惊讶。
Graham B Lived in Germany 2014–2021
2014–2021年居住于德国
Absolutely not.
绝对不能。
No european country could defeat ww2 because of the numbers game. Germany had over 100 divisions with enough supplies for months and factories to replace consumption.
Italy can deploy half a division with supplies for a week. This can protect a 20 km * 20 km area
The quality of weapons is irrelevant when the number of high cost weapons is less than 1 hundredth of the low cost targets. The german army could advance on a front of over 1000 km
由于兵力和物资的数量差距，没有任何欧洲国家能击败二战时期的德国。德国拥有100多个师，物资储备足以支撑数月，还有工厂能够补充消耗。
意大利仅能部署半个师的兵力，物资仅够维持一周，这些力量只能防守一个20公里×20公里的区域。
当高价武器的数量还不到廉价目标的百分之一时，武器质量就变得无关紧要了。而德国军队能够在超过1000公里的战线发起进攻。
Paul Weston
The really big advantage to my mind, would be the modern Italian airforce of ww2, which could probably have blown the crap out of German industry, German military installations, and German infrastructure as a whole, with relative inpunity.
在我看来，最大的优势在于二战时期意大利的现代化空军，它大概率能毫无顾忌地重创德国的工业设施、军事基地以及整体基础设施。
Mussolini wound up hanging by his heels. Hitler stayed in control until Berlin was about to fall, and was allowed to die by his own hand and be cremated. This really shows you the major reason for the difference between Italy and Germany in war. The Italian people are not dumb enough to fight hard in a war that will gain them little if they win, and bring catastrophe if they lose.
墨索里尼最终被倒吊处决，希特勒则一直掌控权力直到柏林即将沦陷，最终得以自杀并被火化。这一事实恰恰揭示了意大利和德国在战争中的核心差异：意大利人民没那么愚蠢，不会为一场赢了获益甚少、输了则招致灾难的战争拼死作战。
Brigitte Meier Lived in Germany
居住于德国
No, of course not.
当然不能。
Italy field armed forces in the strength of about 100 000 soldiers, Germany had roughly 580 000 beginning 1939 and 5 mi at the end of 1939.
Higher officers had combat experience, NCO were the product of 12 year training and service in Reichswehr and early Wehrmacht, so we are talking about a different breed.
意大利现役兵力约为10万人，而德国在1939年初约有58万人，到1939年底已增至500万人。
德国的高级军官拥有实战经验，士官则是经过在魏玛共和国国防军和早期德国国防军长达12年的训练与服役培养而成，完全是另一水准的军人。
Firstly, war is won by number or boots on the ground. How often can you attack a position, when are your soldiers worn out, can you keep the territory you just conquered, how safe are your rear areas/logistics?
And in regard to equipment, how often can your planes take off, how many spare parts do you have, how many specialists to repair it? So an army with very modern equipment does not necessarily have an advantage over a low tech opponent.
In contrast to the opinions and expectations of many, the German army was not the best equipped, the army with the highest motorization, best guns, best tanks, planes, etc. Not at all.'\\\\
首先，战争的胜利取决于地面兵力规模。你能对一个阵地发起多少次进攻？士兵何时会疲惫不堪？能否守住刚攻占的领土？后方区域和后勤保障的安全性如何？
而在装备方面，你的飞机能起飞多少次？有多少备用零件？有多少专业维修人员？因此，装备高度现代化的军队，未必能比技术水平较低的对手更具优势。
与许多人的看法和预期相反，德国军队并非装备最精良、摩托化程度最高、拥有最佳火炮、坦克和飞机等装备的军队，完全不是。
The Germans had the best integrated structure of arms, very good tacticians, first rate NCO and the concept of finding decisions on the battlefield or giving authority to the unit leaders (even squad, company, etc).
So the engineering marvel Germans were very good at soft skills. What an Irony!
德国军队拥有最完善的兵种整合体系、优秀的战术家、一流的士官队伍，并且秉持着在战场上自主决策、向基层指挥官（甚至班、连级等）授权的理念。
如此看来，以工程奇迹著称的德国人，反倒极其擅长这些“软技能”，真是颇具讽刺意味！
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