举世瞩目却鲜有人懂的战役：波克罗夫斯克（红军城）局势究竟如何？

The battle the world is watching, but few understand What’s really going on in Pokrovsk

举世瞩目却鲜有人懂的战役：波克罗夫斯克（红军城）局势究竟如何？

Behind the headlines, Russia’s advance in Donbass reveals shifting tactics, collapsing defenses, and the stakes of 2025’s decisive fight

头条背后：俄军在顿巴斯的推进揭示战术转变、防线崩溃及 2025 年决战关键

The Donbass town of Pokrovsk (known in Russia as Krasnoarmeysk) has found itself at the center of attention in recent days. In many ways, the Russian advance in this strategic stronghold appears to be following a familiar pattern: Ukraine denies there’s a crisis, holds on too long, attempts futile counterattacks instead of executing a retreat and ultimately gives way with tremendous losses.

顿巴斯城镇波克罗夫斯克（俄罗斯称红军城）近日成为关注焦点。俄军对这个战略要地的攻势似乎遵循着熟悉的模式：乌克兰矢口否认危机，固守太久，试图徒劳反击而非有序撤退，最终在惨重损失中溃退。

But similarities aside, what is happening here comes at a pivotal time and may well determine how the next phase of the war shapes up. 

但撇开这些相似之处，此次战役爆发在关键时期，很可能决定下一阶段战争走向。

The Kiev regime is, as is its unfailing tendency, attempting to downplay the crisis – although, as we will see below, its actions say otherwise. Mikhail Podoliak, an adviser to Vladimir Zelensky, insists there’s no encirclement, claiming instead that Ukrainian special units are “clearing out infiltrating Russian troops.”

基辅政权一如既往地试图淡化危机——尽管我们将在下文中看到，其实际行动恰恰相反。泽连斯基的顾问米哈伊尔·波多利亚克坚称不存在包围，反而声称乌克兰特种部队正在"清剿渗透的俄军"。

Zelensky himself claims that Moscow is exploiting the “Pokrovsk narrative” to project an image of success on the battlefield.

泽连斯基本人则宣称，莫斯科正在利用"波克罗夫斯克叙事"来营造战场获胜的形象。

Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, says the enemy is already trapped in the cities of Kupiansk and, using the Russian name, Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Ukrainian attempts at obfuscation aside, many Western media reports paint a similar picture. 

与此同时，俄罗斯总统普京表示敌人已被困在库皮扬斯克和克拉斯诺阿尔梅斯克（波克罗夫斯克的俄语名称）。撇开乌克兰方面的混淆视听，许多西方媒体的报道也描绘了类似的画面。

If it's clear enough to most how things will play out militarily in Pokrovsk, many commentators do not yet see these events for their likely true significance: the decisive fight of 2025. Why does Pokrovsk matter so much, how did this situation unfold, and what lies ahead?

倘若大多数人对波克罗夫斯克军事态势的发展已足够明晰，许多观察家却尚未洞察这些事件可能蕴含的真实意义：这将是 2025 年的决定性战役。为何波克罗夫斯克如此关键？局势如何演变至此？未来又将如何发展？

The importance of Pokrovsk

波克罗夫斯克的战略价值

Pokrovsk – known in Soviet times as Krasnoarmeysk – together with the nearby city of Mirnograd and several smaller towns and worker settlements, forms the second-largest urban cluster still under Ukrainian control in Donbass. Before the war, the combined population of this area was about 200,000 people – roughly half the size of Mariupol, which had around 400,000 residents in 2021.

波克罗夫斯克——苏联时期称为克拉斯诺阿尔梅斯克——与附近的米尔诺格拉德市及若干小型城镇、工人定居点共同构成了顿巴斯地区乌克兰掌控下的第二大城镇群。战前该地区总人口约 20 万，约为 2021 年马里乌波尔 40 万常住人口的一半规模。

For simplicity, we’ll refer to this entire area as Pokrovsk.

为表述简便，下文将这一整片区域统称为波克罗夫斯克。

So why does Pokrovsk matter? First, its sheer size gives it major strategic weight. During the early years of theRussian military operation Pokrovsk served as a crucial logistics hub along the southern front. It was a key rail and road junction with vast warehouse capacity, suitable for large garrisons, support units, and field hospitals.

那么波克罗夫斯克为何如此重要？首先，其庞大面积赋予其重大战略意义。在特别军事行动初期阶段，该城曾是南线至关重要的后勤枢纽——既是核心铁路公路枢纽，又拥有可容纳大量驻军、支援部队及野战医院的广阔仓储空间。

Second, Pokrovsk functioned like a fortress, preventing Russian forces from pushing further west. Donbass is a heavily urbanized region, and fighting through it is notoriously difficult. By contrast, when Russian troops captured Velikaya Novoselka, a relatively small settlement, their units were able to move swiftly into Dnepropetrovsk Region – an advance that would have been impossible in Donetsk’s dense urban sprawl. The open fields beyond offer far easier terrain.

其次，波克罗夫斯克发挥着堡垒作用，长期阻挡俄军西进步伐。顿巴斯是高度城市化的地区，在此作战的艰难程度众所周知。相较而言，当俄军攻占比其小得多的韦利卡亚新谢尔卡镇后，部队便能快速向第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克州推进——这种行军在顿涅茨克密集城区根本不可行。而城外的开阔平原地形显然更利于推进。

If Pokrovsk falls, a similar – and potentially greater – domino effect could follow. For nearly 100km west of the city, there are no major urban centers, water obstacles, or natural elevations. Pokrovsk itself sits on a ridge, meaning that any advance westward would literally be downhill – an easier push for the advancing army.

若波克罗夫斯克失守，可能引发类似甚至更严重的多米诺效应。该城以西近百公里内既无大型城镇，也无水域天堑或自然高地。波克罗夫斯克本身坐落于山脊之上，这意味着向西推进将顺势而下——对进攻方更为有利。

Furthermore, losing several brigades in an encirclement (more on that below) would tear a significant gap in Ukraine’s defensive line, creating serious operational challenges.

更何况，若多个旅级部队在包围圈中折损（下文详述），乌军防线将出现巨大缺口，形成严峻的作战困境。

Finally, Pokrovsk’s significance isn’t purely military. One of Europe’s largest lithium deposits lies nearby – an especially intriguing detail given the “rare earth minerals deal” once discussed between US President Donald Trump and Zelensky.

波克罗夫斯克的价值不仅限于军事层面。欧洲最大的锂矿之一就蕴藏于此——考虑到美国总统特朗普与泽连斯基曾讨论过的"稀土矿产交易"，这一细节尤为耐人寻味。

2024–2025: From Avdeevka to Pokrovsk

2024-2025：从阿夫杰耶夫卡到波克罗夫斯克

The Russian offensive began in February 2024 with the capture of Avdeevka and continued for more than a year, lasting into March and April 2025. During that period, over a dozen towns and urban settlements along the central Donetsk front were liberated, as Russian forces slowly pushed their way through the vast industrial belt of the region.

俄罗斯攻势于 2024 年 2 月解放阿夫杰耶夫卡后展开，持续逾年直至 2025 年 3、4 月。期间俄军逐步突破这一广阔工业地带，沿顿涅茨克中部战线解放十余个城镇。

By the fall of 2024, the front had crept close to Pokrovsk. After the offensive tapered off and an operational pause followed in the spring of 2025, Russian forces resumed maneuvering – this time focusing on cutting off the city from the east and south. It had long been anticipated that Pokrovsk would become one of the next key obxtives, and that prediction proved correct.

至 2024 年秋季，战线已逼近波克罗夫斯克。当 2025 年春季攻势渐歇进入战役间歇期后，俄军再度机动——此次重点从东、南两翼切断该城交通。波克罗夫斯克将成为下一阶段关键目标早有预判，这一预测终得证实。

By August, the Russian army began employing its trademark encirclement strategy. The city was effectively sealed off on three sides, while supply routes came under fire control. Over the following weeks and months, the Ukrainian garrison inside Pokrovsk was gradually worn down. As the encirclement tightened, the eventual storming of the city seemed likely to face little organized resistance – the same method Russia had successfully used in Avdeevka, Kurakhovo, Ugledar, and a dozen other localities before.

到八月时，俄军开始采用其标志性的包围战术。这座城实际上已被三面合围，补给线路也陷入火力封锁。在随后数周乃至数月间，困守波克罗夫斯克的乌军部队逐渐被消耗殆尽。随着包围圈不断收紧，最终攻城战很可能不会遭遇有组织的抵抗——这正是俄军在阿夫杰耶夫卡、库拉霍沃、乌格列达尔等十余个城镇屡试不爽的战术。

However, events soon took an unexpected turn.

然而战局很快出现了戏剧性转折。

At the end of July, reports began emerging that Russian assault troops had entered Pokrovsk – including the city center – as well as Rodinskoye, a small but strategically crucial town vital to the defense of both Pokrovsk and Mirnograd to the north. Yet full encirclement was still a way off: at least two paved roads remained firmly under Ukrainian control.

七月底开始有报道称，俄军突击队已攻入波克罗夫斯克市中心，同时拿下了对波城和北部米尔诺格勒防御体系都至关重要的罗金斯柯耶战略小镇。但全面合围尚需时日：至少两条硬化公路仍牢牢控制在乌军手中。

Ten days later, reports surfaced of an unprecedented Russian breakthrough toward Zolotoy Kolodez and the Kramatorsk–Dobropolye highway. In just 24 hours, Russian forces advanced some 20km, tearing open a four- to five-kilometer-wide gap in the front – their fastest daily advance since the early days of the Russian military operation in February–March 2022.

十天后，有报道称俄军在向"金色科洛杰兹"和克拉马托尔斯克-多布罗波利耶公路方向取得前所未有的突破。短短 24 小时内，俄军推进约 20 公里，在战线撕开一道四五公里宽的缺口——这是自 2022 年 2-3 月特别军事行动初期以来单日最快推进速度。

This rapid push toward Dobropolye, followed by intense counterattacks, briefly drew both Russian and Ukrainian attention away from Pokrovsk. The fighting in that direction quieted down for almost two months, as both sides regrouped and prepared for what came next.

这场向多布罗波利耶的迅猛突进及随之而来的激烈反攻，曾短暂转移了俄乌双方对波克罗夫斯克的注意力。该方向战事沉寂近两个月，双方都在重新集结，为下一阶段作准备。

October 2025: The encirclement

2025 年 10 月：合围之势

The battles for Pokrovsk – along with the earlier breakthrough near Dobropolye – revealed yet another evolution in Russian tactics: small, mobile assault groups have become the main strike force on the battlefield. With FPV drones patrolling the skies around the clock, traditional armored offensives are nearly impossible, and large concentrations of infantry without cover are easy targets for precision drone strikes.

波克罗夫斯克战役（连同此前在多布罗波利耶附近的突破）再次显现俄军战术演变：小型机动突击群已成为战场主力打击力量。在 FPV 无人机全天候巡逻战场的情况下，传统装甲攻势近乎不可能实施，而无掩护的大规模步兵集结更易成为无人机精确打击的活靶子。

At the same time, Ukrainian forces have grown visibly more exhausted than their Russian counterparts. In many areas, there is no longer a continuous front line. Even in critical sectors, Ukrainian defenses now consist of scattered strongpoints separated by open terrain monitored by drones. Analysts estimate that in this zone – where Russia’s Central Group of Forces operates – there are now between three and six Russian soldiers for every Ukrainian.

与此同时，乌克兰部队的疲惫程度已明显超过俄军。许多地区的前线阵地已不再连贯，即使在关键防区，乌军的防御体系也只剩下由无人机监控的开阔地带相隔的零星据点。分析人士估计，在俄军中集团军群作战的这个战区，俄乌兵力对比已达 3:1 至 6:1。

Russian assault teams exploit these gaps, quietly massing over hours or even days before launching sudden strikes on vulnerable points – destroying strongholds or forcing rapid retreats. The element of surprise, combined with flexible local coordination, allows Russia to achieve temporary superiority at key spots, neutralizing the enemy’s drone advantage and enabling steady progress.

俄军突击队利用这些防御缺口，经过数小时甚至数日的隐蔽集结后，突然袭击薄弱环节——摧毁据点或迫使守军快速撤退。出其不意的战术结合灵活的局部协同，使俄方能在关键位置取得暂时优势，化解敌方无人机侦察的长处，实现稳定推进。

As a result, Pokrovsk was almost fully captured by October. The area south of the railway line fell first, followed by the high-rise apartment blocks in the city’s northern districts. By Saturday, only a few residential neighborhoods and the hospital near Tyulenev Street on the northeastern outskirts remained under Ukrainian control.

截至 10 月，波克罗夫斯克已基本被完全攻克。铁路线以南区域最先失守，随后城北的高层住宅区相继陷落。到周六时，仅剩东北郊秋列涅夫街附近的几片居民区和医院尚在乌军控制之下。

But what about the encirclement that President Putin announced in October – the one Ukrainian officials insist doesn’t exist?

但普京总统在 10 月宣布的包围圈又是怎么回事？乌方官员坚称根本不存在的那个包围圈？

To the east of Pokrovsk lies Mirnograd, which is defended by two Ukrainian brigades: the 25th Airborne Assault Brigade and the 38th Naval Infantry Brigade – both elite, battle-tested units. Estimates suggest between 2,000 and 5,000 Ukrainian troops are now trapped there.

普罗维登斯克东部坐落着米尔诺格勒，此地由乌克兰两支劲旅驻守：第 25 空降突击旅和第 38 海军步兵旅——皆为久经沙场的精锐之师。据估算，目前有 2000 至 5000 名乌军士兵被围困于此。

Unlike Pokrovsk, Mirnograd sits in a lowland area – almost behind Pokrovsk from the Ukrainian side’s perspective. All supply routes to the city run either through Pokrovsk itself or the small town of Rodinskoye to the north.

与普罗维登斯克不同，米尔诺格勒地处低洼地带——从乌方视角看几乎位于普罗维登斯克后方。所有通往该市的补给线路要么经过普罗维登斯克本部，要么取道北方小镇罗丁斯科耶。

According to Lostarmour, the distance between the northern and southern prongs of the Russian advance is now just two kilometers. With the area under constant drone surveillance, it’s safe to say that Mirnograd and its garrison have been effectively encircled for at least two weeks, unable to retreat or receive reinforcements. Supplies are reportedly being delivered by heavy R18 cargo drones, but even with minimal losses, that’s nowhere near enough to sustain such a large force.

据 Lostarmour 网站披露，俄军南北两路先锋部队现仅相距两公里。在无人机持续监控下，可以确定米尔诺格拉德及守军实际已被围困至少两周，既无法撤退也难以获得增援。有报道称补给正由 R18 重型货运无人机投送，但即便损耗率极低，这类运输量也远不足以维持如此庞大的部队需求。

November 2025: A new take on Operation Winter Storm

2025 年 11 月：冬季风暴行动新演绎

The Ukrainian side isn’t standing still. Having missed the chance to withdraw its garrison in time, Kiev is now trying to counterattack – hoping to break through to Mirnograd and extract its trapped forces. The situation echoes Operation Winter Storm, when Manstein’s tanks tried to rescue the encircled Sixth Army at Stalingrad, only to be repelled by the Red Army and forced to abandon the plan.

乌方并未坐以待毙。基辅在错失及时撤出驻军良机后，正试图发起反击——期望突破至米尔诺格勒解救被困部队。这一情景与冬季风暴行动如出一辙：当年曼施坦因的坦克部队试图解救斯大林格勒被围第六集团军，最终被红军击退并被迫放弃计划。

The most dramatic – and arguably most futile – episode came on November 1, when Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence launched an airborne raid on the western edge of Pokrovsk. Two helicopters managed to escape, but the special forces they dropped off were quickly hunted down among the ruins and destroyed by FPV drones.

最具戏剧性——或许也是最徒劳的一幕——发生在 11 月 1 日，乌克兰国防部情报总局在波克罗夫斯克西郊发起了空降突袭。两架直升机成功撤离，但投放的特种部队迅速在废墟中被发现，随即遭到 FPV 无人机的歼灭。

Heavier fighting continues on the northern flank of the encirclement. For several weeks, Ukrainian troops have been throwing everything they have into attacks – first toward the Dobropolye salient, and later directly toward Mirnograd. Here, the Ukrainian forces are once again using armored vehicles – a rarity these days – but despite massing significant forces and suffering heavy losses, they’ve failed to advance beyond Rodninskoye.

包围圈的北翼激战仍在持续。数周来乌军不断投入全部力量发动进攻——先是剑指多布罗波利耶突出部，后又直取米尔诺格勒。乌军在此罕见地再度动用装甲车辆，但即便集结重兵且承受惨重伤亡，仍未能突破罗德宁斯科耶地区。

The Ukrainian units in this area are a patchwork of assorted battalions and ad hoc formations. The 425th Assault Regiment remains one of the few structured combat groups, while the rest have been pieced together, as the saying goes, on a “many a little makes a mickle” basis.

该地区的乌克兰部队是各类营级单位和临时编制拼凑而成。第 425 突击团仍是少数具备完整建制的战斗群之一，其余部队正如俗话所说"积少成多"般东拼西凑组建起来。

This precarious situation stems directly from Kiev’s political decisions. Throughout the year, Zelensky has been assuring his European backers and Donald Trump that the “Russian hordes” could be held off indefinitely. Now he cannot afford a major defeat that might turn into a strategic catastrophe. That’s why he’s once again ordered his commanders to defend the so-called “Pokrovsk fortress” at any cost – forcing General Syrsky to spend what may be the last of his reserves on repeated counterattacks.

当前这一危险局势直接源于基辅的政治决策。泽连斯基全年都在向欧洲金主和特朗普保证，能够无限期阻挡"俄罗斯大军"。如今他承受不起可能演变为战略灾难的惨败，因此再次命令部队不计代价死守所谓的"波克罗夫斯克堡垒"——迫使瑟尔斯基将军将可能是最后的预备队投入一轮轮反攻。

With Pokrovsk nearly taken and Mirnograd on the brink of collapse, the best the Ukrainian command can hope for now is to evacuate the elite brigades trapped inside.

波克罗夫斯克几近被夺，米尔诺格勒也濒临崩溃，乌克兰指挥部眼下能指望的最好结果就是撤出被困其中的精锐旅。

The Russian army’s obxtive, however, is to prevent exactly that – to wear down the attacking forces and either destroy or capture the Mirnograd garrison. Should that happen, Ukraine will likely be unable to establish a new defensive line east of Pokrovsk. The front would inevitably shift westward – toward the Dnieper River.

然而俄军的战略目标恰恰是阻止此类情况——通过消耗进攻部队来摧垮或俘获米尔诺赫拉德驻军。倘若此目标达成，乌军将极难在波克罗夫斯克以东建立新防线，战线势必西移至第聂伯河方向。

As things stand, the decisive battle of 2025 has entered its critical phase.

当前局势下，2025 年这场决定性战役已进入关键阶段。

By Sergey Poletaev, information analyst and publicist, co-founder and editor of the Vatfor project. 

作者：谢尔盖·波列塔耶夫（信息分析师、时事评论员，Vatfor 项目联合创始人兼编辑）