哪个单一决定对历史产生了最重大的影响？
What single decision had the greatest effect on history?
译文简介
哪个单一决定对历史产生了最重大的影响？ 我的回答是，很多很多，见仁见智。
正文翻译
I like the following because it’s a little-known fact and yet played a profound role in modern history - a role whose ramifications we will never really know.
我喜欢以下这个答案，因为它是一个鲜为人知的事实，却在现代历史中扮演了深远的角色——其影响之广，我们永远无法真正知晓。
In October 1940, Mussolini (a royal idiot if ever there was one; just look at footage of him giving speeches!) invaded Greece.
1940年10月，墨索里尼（倘若真有蠢材之王，非他莫属；看看他演讲的片段就知道了！）入侵了希腊。
Like so many of Mussolini’s decisions, this drastic and ill-conceived military campaign wasn’t motivated by strategy or necessity, but rather by narcissism, bravado and a brand of machismo that is uniquely (Fascist) Italian. Believe it or not, in the early days of the Nazi-Fascist alliance (the ‘20s and the ‘30s) Mussolini was the senior partner. By the time Hitler became Chancellor of Germany in 1933, Mussolini still towered above him on the world political stage, and also in terms of their partnership. It was really only when the German war machine was unleashed upon the world following the invasion of Poland in 1939, and after one stunning military success after another, that the tables were turned, and the true nature of the alliance was revealed - that Mussolini, and the Italian state, was the bumbling, inept “little brother” of this relationship.
Mussolini, exhibiting his usual bluster during a speech.
墨索里尼在演讲中一如既往地夸夸其谈。
和墨索里尼的许多决定一样，这场激进且考虑不周的军事行动并非出于战略考量或现实需要，而是源于自恋、虚张声势以及一种独特的（法西斯式）意大利大男子主义。信不信由你，在纳粹-法西斯同盟初期（20世纪20至30年代），墨索里尼是同盟中的主导者。1933年希特勒成为德国总理时，在世界政治舞台上以及两人的同盟关系中，墨索里尼仍处于上风。直到1939年德国入侵波兰后，其战争机器席卷全球，取得了一系列惊人的军事胜利，局势才发生逆转，同盟的真实本质浮出水面——墨索里尼和意大利不过是这场关系中笨拙无能的“小兄弟”。
Mussolini and Hitler together, already the nature of their relationship was changing
墨索里尼与希特勒在一起，两人关系的本质已然发生变化
Any case, feeling upstaged by Hitler’s amazing military successes, Mussolini decided to grab some of the glory for himself by invading Greece. The campaign was accompanied by a great deal of bluster but within a few months the Italians were suffering heavy losses and a Greek counter-offensive actually drove the Fascists back to the Albanian border. Mussolini’s desire for military glory had resulted in a military blunder which was starting to pose a threat to Hitler himself.
无论如何，眼见希特勒的军事成就风头无两，墨索里尼心生不甘，决定通过入侵希腊为自己攫取一些荣耀。这场战役伴随着大肆吹嘘，但短短几个月内，意大利军队便遭受重创，希腊的反攻甚至将法西斯分子逼回了阿尔巴尼亚边境。墨索里尼对军事荣耀的渴求酿成了一场军事灾难，而这一灾难已开始对希特勒自身构成威胁。
As a result, Hitler intervened and invaded Greece in April 1941. The important point is, it was never his intention to get involved in Greece and he only did so once Mussolini’s blunder started posing a threat to his own military position.
结果，希特勒于1941年4月介入并入侵希腊。关键在于，他原本无意卷入希腊事务，只是在墨索里尼的失误开始威胁到他自身的军事部署后，才不得不采取这一行动。
However, the most important consequence of the invasion of Greece was that Hitler’s single biggest military move of the entire war, Operation Barbarossa, the invasion and conquest of Russia, was delayed by several crucial months.
Situation in Europe by May/June 1941 at the conclusion of the Balkans Campaign, immediately before Operation Barbarossa
然而，入侵希腊带来的最重大后果是，希特勒在整个战争中最庞大的军事行动——“巴巴罗萨计划”，即入侵并征服苏联的行动——被推迟了至关重要的几个月。
1941年5月至6月，巴尔干战役结束后、“巴巴罗萨计划”即将启动时的欧洲局势
Within a short time of the actual invasion of Russia, the Siberian winter hit the invading armies of Hitler. It was immediately apparent that the Germans were ill-prepared for the Russian winter - due to one major factor. The invasion was supposed to have taken place months before, but because of Mussolini’s disastrous decision to invade Greece, all Hitler’s plans were delayed - with calamitous results. Not only was the average German soldier not equipped to fight in the Russian winter, but the German equipment of war itself soon ground to a halt as sub-zero conditions set in.
在入侵苏联后不久，西伯利亚的严冬便突袭了希特勒的侵略军。显而易见，德国人对苏联的冬天毫无准备，而这背后有一个关键原因：入侵本应在数月前进行，但由于墨索里尼入侵希腊的灾难性决定，希特勒的所有计划都被推迟，最终导致了灾难性的后果。普通德国士兵不仅没有配备在苏联冬季作战的装备，随着零下低温的降临，德国的战争装备也很快陷入瘫痪。
The early part of Operation Barbarossa saw some of the most stunning military victories in world history, with hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers taken prisoner while, in a matter of weeks, the invading German army had conquered an area so vast, it had never been equalled - before or since. The only thing that halted this frightening military behemoth was the Russian winter. (Of course the fact that Stalin managed to mobilise Russia’s industrial might at just the right time also helped.)
“巴巴罗萨计划”初期取得了世界历史上一些最惊人的军事胜利，数十万苏联士兵被俘，而入侵的德国军队在短短几周内征服的领土之广阔，前所未有、后无来者。唯一阻止这台可怕军事机器的，便是苏联的冬天。（当然，斯大林恰好在关键时刻动员了苏联的工业力量，这也起到了一定作用。）
Imagine if Hitler had succeeded in conquering Russia or at least knocking Stalin out of the war. There never would have been an eastern front, or of course, the disastrous military reversal when Russian forces started pushing towards Berlin. Hitler would have been able to focus the entire might of the German army on the western front, i.e. the French coast that later saw the invasion of Normandy. With such formidable defences, D-Day may never have happened, or may have been a failure on the part of the Allies. Imagine what would have happened if the Allies had never been able to retake Europe. Imagine how history would have turned out if there had never been anything like the Soviet empire - brought about as a direct result of the Russian reversal of the German invasion. It’s almost inconceivable, isn’t it?
试想一下，如果希特勒成功征服了苏联，或者至少将斯大林赶出了战争，那么就不会有东线战场，当然也不会有后来苏联军队向柏林推进时那灾难性的军事逆转。希特勒本可以将德国军队的全部力量集中在西线，也就是后来诺曼底登陆发生的法国海岸。面对如此坚固的防御，诺曼底登陆可能永远不会发生，或者会以盟军的失败告终。想象一下，如果盟军从未能够重新夺回欧洲会怎样；想象一下，如果没有苏联帝国——这一德国入侵苏联失败的直接产物——历史又会走向何方。这几乎是难以想象的，不是吗？
Whatever the case, WWII, and consequent history would have been quite different. All because of the bruised ego of an Italian fascist.
无论如何，第二次世界大战以及随之而来的历史都将截然不同。而这一切，都源于一个意大利法西斯分子受伤的自尊心。
Johann Rall Lost The Revolutionary War Because He Didn't Want His Poker Game Interrupted. 自学历史
This man here, is Johann Rall.
For those who don't know, Johann Rall is a lesser-known German Colonel who commanded the Hessian troops (German soldiers) that aided the British in the Revolutionary War.
约翰·拉尔因不愿中断扑克游戏而输掉了独立战争。
这个人就是约翰·拉尔。
对于不了解他的人来说，约翰·拉尔是一位鲜为人知的德国上校，他指挥着在独立战争中援助英国的黑森雇佣军（德国士兵）。
Rall is most notable for being the victim of George Washington’s near-mythic crossing of the Delaware, but he needn’t have been. Rall was handed intelligence about Washington’s crossing the night before it happened, but the note was in English, which he didn’t read, and he was too busy playing poker, according to some accounts.
拉尔最著名的事迹是成为乔治·华盛顿近乎传奇的“特拉华河渡河奇袭”的受害者，但这本不该发生。据一些记载，渡河行动发生的前一晚，拉尔就收到了有关华盛顿渡河的情报，但纸条是用英文写的，他没有阅读，而且当时他正忙于打扑克。
Rall decided to stuff the note about George Washington in his pocket and leave it for later to read.
拉尔决定把关于乔治·华盛顿的那张纸条塞进口袋，留到以后再看。
So on the night of December 25–26, 1776 General George Washington the man himself crossed the river with his troops on the way to Trenton, New Jersey. The Hessian regiments, which was camping around Trenton, were attacked and decisively defeated by the American Continental Army. The Hessians had supposedly let their guard down to celebrate the Christmas holiday, and (legend has it) Rall himself was misled by John Honeyman, a spy of Washington who convincingly posed as a British loyalist.
于是在1776年12月25日至26日夜间，乔治·华盛顿将军亲自率领部队渡河，前往新泽西州的特伦顿。当时在特伦顿周边扎营的黑森军团遭到了美国大陆军的袭击，并被彻底击败。据称，黑森士兵因庆祝圣诞节而放松了警惕，而且（传说）拉尔本人还被华盛顿的间谍约翰·霍尼曼所误导，霍尼曼成功伪装成了一名英国忠诚派。
While leading his troops during the battle, Rall was mortally wounded. He was shot twice in the side and needed to be carried back to his headquarters in the house of Stacy Potts a distinguished number of the Trenton community where he died that night. Before his death he requested a formal surrender to Washington.
在战役中指挥部队时，拉尔受了致命伤。他的侧面中了两枪，被抬回位于特伦顿社区知名人士斯泰西·波茨家中的司令部，并于当晚去世。临终前，他请求向华盛顿正式投降。
The note, which could have actually made the difference between victory and defeat for the Americans (and also the difference between life and death for the American revolutionary leader, George Washington), was found in Johann pocket after he died.
那张本可以改变美国人胜负命运（也能改变美国革命领袖乔治·华盛顿生死）的纸条，在约翰死后被人从他的口袋里发现。
Because George Washington survived the battle and was not killed by a prepared Hessian army, he was able to lead the American revolutionaries to victory over the British, and without America independence, I don't think I need to tell you that the world would be an extremely EXTREMELY different place, for the worse or better.
由于乔治·华盛顿在这场战役中幸存下来，没有被严阵以待的黑森军队杀害，他才得以带领美国革命者战胜英国。如果美国没有独立，我想无需多言，这个世界将会变得极其极其不同，无论好坏。
Vjekoslav Nemec
Master's in Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, University of Zagreb (Graduated 2016)
萨格勒布 大学电气工程与计算学院电气工程硕士（2016年毕业）
On September 28th, 1918, Henry Tandey, a British soldier serving with the 5th Duke of Wellington’s Regiment, saw a weary German soldier wandering into Tandey’s line of fire at the small French village of Marcoing.
1918年9月28日，在法国小镇马尔宽，服役于威灵顿公爵第五步兵团的英国士兵亨利·坦迪，看到一名疲惫的德国士兵闯入了他的射击范围。
The enemy soldier was hurt and didn’t even attempt to raise his rifle. Altough Tandey had a clear vision and an opportunity to reduce the number of enemy forces by one, he chose not to shoot. The German soldier allegedly saw what he did and nodded his thanks before getting out of the sight.
That German soldier was Adolf Hitler.
这名敌方士兵受伤了，甚至没有试图举起步枪。尽管坦迪视野清晰，有机会消灭一名敌军，但他选择了不开枪。据称，这名德国士兵看到了他的举动，点头致谢后便消失在了视线中。
而这名德国士兵，正是阿道夫·希特勒。
This story supposedly comes from Hitler himself. When Neville Chamberlain visited Hitler in 1938 (before the Münich Agreement), he saw a picture by Fortunino Matania ordered by the Green Howards regiment depicting a man saving his fellow comrade. Hitler had allegedly identified the man as Tandey on the basis of a U.K. newspaper article and claimed Tandey was the one who saved his life:
这个故事据称来自希特勒本人。1938年（慕尼黑协定签署前），内维尔·张伯伦拜访希特勒时，看到了一幅由格林霍华德团委托福尔图尼奥·马塔尼亚创作的画作，画中描绘了一名士兵救助战友的场景。据称，希特勒根据一篇英国报纸的文章认出画中人是坦迪，并声称坦迪就是救了他性命的人：
That man came so near to killing me that I thought I should never see Germany again; Providence saved me from such devilishly accurate fire as those English boys were aiming at us.
There has been a lot of evidence that this story is not actually true (see the sources below). But it doesn’t make it less cool nevertheless. If it were true, it would definitely be a legitimate candidate for a single decision that had the most dramatic effect on the entire 20th century.
“那个人差点就杀了我，我以为自己再也回不到德国了；是天意救了我，让我躲过了那些英国小伙子们精准得可怕的射击。”
有大量证据表明这个故事并非真实，但这并不妨碍它的趣味性。如果这是真的，那么它无疑是对整个20世纪产生最戏剧性影响的单一决定的合理候选。
If nothing else, it kinda reminded me of the following joke:
抛开其他不谈，这让我想起了下面这个笑话：
A man decided to visit a fortune teller. After looking into his hand and into the crystal ball, the fortune teller says in a dramatic tone:
“You sir, will be responsible for the death of millions”
一个人决定去拜访一位算命先生。算命先生看了看他的手相，又看了看水晶球，然后用夸张的语气说：
“先生，你将对数百万人的死亡负责。”
Shocked and taken aback, the man goes back to his home. Along the way, he passes near a river and sees a small boy drowning helplessly.
“Well, if millions of people are going to die because of me, I might at least save one life.”
男人又震惊又错愕，回到了家中。途中，他经过一条河边，看到一个小男孩无助地溺水。
“好吧，如果数百万人会因为我而死，我至少可以救一个人的命。”
He jumps into the river and pulls the boy out. The shocked mother comes in tears and says:
“ Oh my dear god, thank you so much Mr., you are a saint. Adolf, you should thank this gentleman yourself.”
他跳进河里，把男孩救了出来。男孩震惊的母亲赶来，泪流满面地说：
“哦，我的上帝，非常感谢你，先生，你真是个圣人。阿道夫，你应该亲自感谢这位先生。”
Tony Plank Former Lawyer and DBA, but forever Scrum Master Upvoted by Stuart Stevenson, Masters Political Science Major & History, A School. (2013) and Bryan Trussler, Master of Arts Religion and Culture & History, Wilfrid Laurier University (1992)
托尼·普兰克 前律师、工商管理博士，永远的敏捷教练 ,获斯图尔特·史蒂文森（2013年毕业于某学院，政治学与历史学硕士）和布莱恩·特拉斯勒（1992年毕业于威尔弗里德·劳里埃大学，宗教文化与历史学文学硕士）
In 1241 A.D., Mongol princes Batu Khan and Kadan decided to ignore the advice of their infamous top military strategist Subutai and return to Mongolia upon hearing of the death of Great Khan Ögedei.
公元1241年，蒙古王子拔都汗和卡丹汗在得知大汗窝阔台去世的消息后，决定无视其声名显赫的首席军事战略家速不台的建议，返回蒙古。
A little less than 800 years ago, Western civilization was on the brink of total annihilation. Ögedei, the third son of Genghis Khan, had continued his father’s violent and brutal imperial expansion into Europe and was on the verge of success. The news of the Great Khan’s death was fully or partially responsible for the Mongol withdrawal from Europe, sparing Western civilization from the near-universal destruction that followed in the wake of the Mongol hordes.
距今不到800年前，西方文明处于彻底毁灭的边缘。成吉思汗的三子窝阔台延续了父亲暴力残酷的帝国扩张，向欧洲进军且即将成功。大汗去世的消息是蒙古人撤离欧洲的全部或部分原因，使西方文明免遭蒙古大军所到之处几乎无处不在的毁灭。
The desire of Genghis Khan’s grandsons to attend the Kurultai, where a new Great Khan would be elected, is completely understandable. Neither would ultimately be sexted, as another of Genghis Khan’s grandsons, Güyük Khan, was elected instead, but they clearly had an interest in positioning themselves politically for the election. Subutai was undoubtedly furious at the decision, as he was in the process of planning the invasion of the Holy Roman Empire after achieving great success in Europe up to that point.
成吉思汗的孙子们希望参加忽里勒台大会（新大汗将在该大会上选举产生），这一点完全可以理解。最终他们二人都未能当选，取而代之的是成吉思汗的另一位孙子贵由汗，但显然他们都有意在选举中为自己谋取政治地位。速不台对这一决定无疑极为愤怒，因为在此之前他在欧洲已取得巨大成功，正计划入侵神圣罗马帝国。
Mongol siege of Ryazan in 1238
1238年蒙古围攻梁赞
Before the Mongols withdrew, they had already encountered some stiffened European resistance, such as in Austria. However, much of Europe east of Vienna had been laid waste by the Mongols. Even if they had not succeeded in occupying Western Europe, the devastation would undoubtedly have been apocalyptic.
在蒙古人撤离之前，他们已经遭遇了欧洲一些地区的顽强抵抗，例如奥地利。但维也纳以东的欧洲大部分地区已被蒙古人摧毁，即便他们未能成功占领西欧，其破坏也无疑将接近世界末日的程度。
Subutai was one of the most ruthless Mongol generals. Any city that refused to surrender unconditionally faced unspeakable horrors of death, destruction, and torture. The cold efficiency of the Mongol killing machine has rarely been matched, with entire cities massacred in a few hours of systematic execution. Over a period of just over a century, some estimates put the death toll at the hands of the Mongols as high as five percent of the global population.
速不台是蒙古最残忍的将领之一。任何拒绝无条件投降的城市都将面临难以言表的死亡、毁灭和酷刑恐怖。蒙古杀戮机器的冷酷效率鲜有匹敌，整座城市在数小时的系统性处决中被屠戮殆尽。在短短一个多世纪的时间里，据一些估计，蒙古人造成的死亡人数高达全球人口的5%。
Let that sink in. Five percent of all humans.
If Subutai had succeeded in completing and executing his plans, Europe might have been permanently set back by several centuries.
好好想想吧，那可是全人类的5%。
如果速不台成功完成并执行了他的计划，欧洲可能会被永久性地拖后几个世纪。
It should be noted that this classical view is no longer universally accepted. Many other factors have been proposed for the Mongol withdrawal, including the aforementioned stiffened resistance, diminishing returns from plunder, and tribal infighting prior to the news of Ögedei’s death. And despite the horror of their scorched-earth strategy, many historians view Mongol rule in a more benign light than Western history has traditionally portrayed it. While I personally am not convinced by these more modern interpretations, it is important to acknowledge these other plausible and less Eurocentric perspectives.
需要指出的是，这种传统观点已不再被普遍接受。关于蒙古人的撤离，人们提出了许多其他因素，包括上述的抵抗加剧、掠夺收益递减以及窝阔台去世消息传来前的部落内斗。尽管他们的焦土政策十分恐怖，但许多历史学家对蒙古统治的看法比西方传统历史所描绘的更为温和。虽然我个人并不认同这些较新的解读，但承认这些同样合理且不那么以欧洲为中心的观点也很重要。
Regardless of these caveats, there is little doubt that Ögedei’s death was a factor in the Mongol withdrawal, and world history would have been drastically altered if the hordes had advanced into Western Europe. As it turned out, the Mongols never returned to Western Europe to follow up on the territory they had already softened up. This single decision by two of Genghis Khan’s grandsons at that precise moment profoundly changed the shape of the modern world.
尽管存在这些注意事项，但毫无疑问，窝阔台的去世是蒙古人撤离的一个因素，若蒙古大军进军西欧，世界历史将会发生巨大改变。事实证明，蒙古人再也没有返回西欧，去巩固他们已经初步攻占的领土。成吉思汗的两位孙子在那个关键时刻做出的这一单一决定，从根本上改变了现代世界的格局。
Gerald Christie
杰拉尔德·克里斯蒂
In my opinion, the top answer is good, but not “the greatest effect”.
In my view, the greatest shift in human history was a direct result of a single culture’s decision to withhold food in exchange for labor.
我认为最佳答案不错，但并非“影响最深远”。
在我看来，人类历史上最重大的转变，直接源于某一文化做出的“以食物换取劳动”的决定。
Relatively shortly after the agricultural revolution in the Fertile Crescent, around 10,000 years ago, one of the settled tribal cultures in Mesopotamia began producing most, and eventually all, of their food through farming. Farming was already widely practiced in the region, but on a much smaller scale, with most tribes devoting at most a few hours per week to ensuring the regrowth of their favorite foods.
大约10000年前，在新月沃地的农业革命之后不久（相对而言），美索不达米亚的一个定居部落文化开始通过农业生产大部分（最终是全部）食物。当时该地区已广泛开展农业，但规模要小得多，大多数部落每周最多只花几个小时来确保他们喜爱的食物能够再生。
While the exact motivation for this decision is obviously unknowable due to the lack of records, a likely theory is that the massive increase in food availability required a class of people to manage the growing surplus. Once the farmers realized how much food they had, they decided to work less because farming is hard work (especially in that era). The managing class saw this and decided to force the farmers to continue working by locking up food stores and distributing small amounts at a time in exchange for labor. By this time, most of the arable land in the area would have been converted to farmland, making the previous foraging/hunting lifestyle of that culture impossible without traveling far afield. Once this basic system was in place, it was a short step to hiring armed guards and farm managers, who would eventually become owners (and extremely powerful).
由于缺乏记录，这一决定的确切动机显然无从知晓，但一种合理的理论是，食物供应量的大幅增加需要一个阶层来管理日益增多的剩余粮食。农民们一旦意识到自己拥有大量食物，就决定减少工作量，因为耕种非常辛苦（尤其是在那个时代）。管理阶层看到这一点后，决定通过封锁粮食储备、每次少量发放以换取劳动的方式，强迫农民继续劳作。到此时，该地区的大部分可耕地已变为农田，这使得该文化此前的采集/狩猎生活方式除非远赴他乡否则无法维持。一旦这一基本制度建立起来，招募武装警卫和农场管理者就只是一小步，而这些人最终会成为所有者（并拥有极大的权力）。
Again, this is just one theory, but the reason for the decision is not the most important aspect. The most important aspect is population expansion.
再说一次，这只是一种理论，但这一决定的原因并非最重要的方面，最重要的是人口扩张。
It is a well-established fact that population size is directly related to food supply. A given population will always expand to match its food production and will always decline in response to famine. Farming and food storage help prevent famine, which means that a population that farms extensively and saves a lot of food will continue to expand, assuming no plagues, war losses, or other mitigating factors.
人口规模与食物供应直接相关，这是一个公认的事实。特定人口总会扩张到与食物产量相匹配的规模，并会在饥荒时减少。农业生产和粮食储存有助于抵御饥荒，这意味着，在没有瘟疫、战争失利或其他缓解因素的情况下，一个大量耕种且储存大量粮食的人口将会持续扩张。
Once a population reaches a critical mass, it has no choice but to expand. At that time, most of the world was inhabited by small tribes, each with a unique culture, spread out enough that they did not always directly compete with each other for resources. They sometimes competed and sometimes raided each other, but there was no war as we know it today. When I say “war” in this context, I mean fighting for the purpose of forcing another group of people to submit to your will or be destroyed. Any culture that began expanding exponentially would also have been forced to start waging war, because the other cultures whose lands they were expanding into would have had no reason to adopt this new culture of hoarding food. At that time, food literally grew everywhere, so this practice would have seemed absurd to them.
一旦人口达到临界规模，就别无选择只能扩张。当时，世界大部分地区居住着小型部落，每个部落都有独特的文化，彼此分布足够分散，并不总是为资源直接竞争。他们有时会竞争，有时会相互袭击，但不存在我们今天所知的“战争”。在此背景下，我说的“战争”，是指为迫使另一群体服从自己的意志或被摧毁而进行的战斗。任何开始呈指数级扩张的文化都将被迫发动战争，因为那些被他们侵占土地的其他文化，没有理由接受这种囤积粮食的新文化——当时食物几乎随处可见，因此这种做法在他们看来会很荒谬。
In this type of conflict, several scenarios could have unfolded. First, there were cultures that refused to engage in war, a new and likely horrific concept to them. These cultures would simply be absorbed by the ever-expanding wave of the farming culture and ultimately forced to adopt the new way of life as their foraging grounds were converted to farmland. Within a few generations, all traces of their original culture would be erased, and their grandchildren would be farmers working in exchange for food.
在这类冲突中，可能会出现几种情况。第一种是那些拒绝参与战争的文化——战争对他们来说是一个全新且可能令人恐惧的概念。这些文化会被不断扩张的农耕文化浪潮轻易同化，随着他们的采集地变为农田，最终被迫接受新的生活方式。几代人之内，他们原有文化的所有痕迹都将消失，他们的孙辈将成为以劳动换取食物的农民。
Second, there were those who stood up for themselves and went to war. These cultures were invariably and completely destroyed, because war was a foreign concept to them, and their enemies had a larger population, massive food reserves, and well-equipped and trained soldiers (previously the guards of the food stores).
第二种是那些奋起反抗、投身战争的文化。这些文化无一例外地被彻底摧毁，因为战争对他们来说是陌生的概念，而他们的敌人拥有更庞大的人口、大量的粮食储备以及装备精良、训练有素的士兵（这些士兵此前是粮食储备的守卫）。
Third, there were cultures that refused to go to war and also refused to be absorbed. These cultures were also eventually annihilated, because the small parcel of land they managed to retain was not large enough to sustain their way of life. They would have become dependent on their neighbors for food, eventually losing all sense of identity and self-respect, and succumbing to problems like alcoholism and suicidal depression.
第三种是那些既拒绝参战也拒绝被同化的文化。这些文化最终也遭到了毁灭，因为他们勉强保留的小块土地不足以维持其生活方式。他们会变得依赖邻国提供食物，最终失去所有身份认同和自尊，陷入酗酒、自杀式抑郁等困境。
So what have we learned from this lengthy explanation? The decision by a single culture to hoard food completely changed the course of human civilization and our planet. This one decision annihilated thousands of unique cultures that had thrived since the dawn of humanity. This one decision converted most of the world’s arable land into farmland. This one decision eventually led to our massive overpopulation problem. This one decision invented war. This one decision is responsible for the extinction of thousands of animal, insect, and plant species due to habitat destruction. This one decision is responsible for the capitalist exploitation and enslavement of billions of humans. This one decision is ultimately responsible for the continued confinement and factory farming of billions of animals each year, which is one of the leading causes of global warming—a threat not only to our existence but also to the existence of all life on our planet.
那么，从这段冗长的阐述中我们能学到什么？某一文化囤积粮食的这一决定，彻底改变了人类文明和我们星球的进程。这一决定摧毁了数千种自人类诞生以来就蓬勃发展的独特文化，将世界上大部分可耕地变为农田，最终导致了我们严重的人口过剩问题，催生了战争，因栖息地破坏导致数千种动物、昆虫和植物物种灭绝，造成了资本主义对数十亿人的剥削和奴役，还导致每年数十亿动物持续被囚禁和工厂化养殖——这是全球变暖的主要原因之一，不仅威胁着人类的生存，也威胁着地球上所有生命的存在。
In a mere 10,000 years, a blx of an eye in the history of life on this planet, a single decision has ultimately brought all known life to the brink of extinction.
在仅仅10000年的时间里——这在地球生命史上不过是转瞬即逝的一刻——一个单一的决定最终将所有已知生命推向了灭绝的边缘。
Jay Bazzinotti An average plan executed today is better than a perfect plan executed tomorrow.
杰伊·巴齐诺蒂 今日执行的普通计划胜过明日执行的完美计划
On June 12, 1215, King John signed the Magna Carta at Runnymede, unwittingly creating Western civilization as we know it today. The Magna Carta underwent various revisions over the next 100 or so years, but it was the spark that helped foster individual freedom. No matter how flawed its 64 articles were, four of them still exist, including the concept of habeas corpus, which remained in effect for over 800 years. It was notable when George W. Bush suspended it in the United States—the first time a Western nation had done so in decades—to make it easier to detain and torture people. Four copies of the Magna Carta still survive, with one of the subsequent revisions housed at the U.S. National Archives in Washington, D.C.
1215年6月12日，约翰国王在伦尼米德签署了《大宪章》，无意间缔造了我们今天所知的西方文明。《大宪章》在之后的约100年里经历了多次修订，但它是催生个人自由的火花。无论其64条条款存在多少缺陷，其中四条至今仍然有效，包括人身保护令的概念——这一概念生效超过800年，而乔治·W·布什在美国暂停实施该制度的举动备受关注，这是数十年来西方 nations 首次这样做，目的是为了更方便地关押和折磨他人。《大宪章》目前仍存有四份副本，其中一份后续修订版收藏于华盛顿特区的美国国家档案馆。
If you read the book *Why Nations Fail*, it explores how the Magna Carta laid one of the five or six principles necessary for a free society.
如果你读过《国家为什么会失败》这本书，它会探讨《大宪章》如何奠定了自由社会所需的五六项原则之一。
The Magna Carta sparked the idea that “all men are created equal,” both in form and in fact, and that all men are equal before the law and entitled to certain rights. Without the articulation of this concept, “freedom” as we know it would not exist, and the Divine Right of Kings would continue to rule over impoverished feudal lands that would not be much different today than they were in 1215.
The Magna Carta, the spark of the idea that “all men are created equal.”
《大宪章》催生了“人人生而平等”的理念——无论在形式上还是事实上，所有人在法律面前一律平等，并享有某些权利。如果没有这一理念的阐述，我们所知的“自由”就不会存在，君权神授的制度将继续统治着贫瘠的封建土地，而如今的世界或许与1215年相比不会有太大差别。
《大宪章》，点燃了“人人生而平等”理念的火花。
我喜欢以下这个答案，因为它是一个鲜为人知的事实，却在现代历史中扮演了深远的角色——其影响之广，我们永远无法真正知晓。
In October 1940, Mussolini (a royal idiot if ever there was one; just look at footage of him giving speeches!) invaded Greece.
1940年10月，墨索里尼（倘若真有蠢材之王，非他莫属；看看他演讲的片段就知道了！）入侵了希腊。
Like so many of Mussolini’s decisions, this drastic and ill-conceived military campaign wasn’t motivated by strategy or necessity, but rather by narcissism, bravado and a brand of machismo that is uniquely (Fascist) Italian. Believe it or not, in the early days of the Nazi-Fascist alliance (the ‘20s and the ‘30s) Mussolini was the senior partner. By the time Hitler became Chancellor of Germany in 1933, Mussolini still towered above him on the world political stage, and also in terms of their partnership. It was really only when the German war machine was unleashed upon the world following the invasion of Poland in 1939, and after one stunning military success after another, that the tables were turned, and the true nature of the alliance was revealed - that Mussolini, and the Italian state, was the bumbling, inept “little brother” of this relationship.
Mussolini, exhibiting his usual bluster during a speech.
墨索里尼在演讲中一如既往地夸夸其谈。
和墨索里尼的许多决定一样，这场激进且考虑不周的军事行动并非出于战略考量或现实需要，而是源于自恋、虚张声势以及一种独特的（法西斯式）意大利大男子主义。信不信由你，在纳粹-法西斯同盟初期（20世纪20至30年代），墨索里尼是同盟中的主导者。1933年希特勒成为德国总理时，在世界政治舞台上以及两人的同盟关系中，墨索里尼仍处于上风。直到1939年德国入侵波兰后，其战争机器席卷全球，取得了一系列惊人的军事胜利，局势才发生逆转，同盟的真实本质浮出水面——墨索里尼和意大利不过是这场关系中笨拙无能的“小兄弟”。
Mussolini and Hitler together, already the nature of their relationship was changing
墨索里尼与希特勒在一起，两人关系的本质已然发生变化
Any case, feeling upstaged by Hitler’s amazing military successes, Mussolini decided to grab some of the glory for himself by invading Greece. The campaign was accompanied by a great deal of bluster but within a few months the Italians were suffering heavy losses and a Greek counter-offensive actually drove the Fascists back to the Albanian border. Mussolini’s desire for military glory had resulted in a military blunder which was starting to pose a threat to Hitler himself.
无论如何，眼见希特勒的军事成就风头无两，墨索里尼心生不甘，决定通过入侵希腊为自己攫取一些荣耀。这场战役伴随着大肆吹嘘，但短短几个月内，意大利军队便遭受重创，希腊的反攻甚至将法西斯分子逼回了阿尔巴尼亚边境。墨索里尼对军事荣耀的渴求酿成了一场军事灾难，而这一灾难已开始对希特勒自身构成威胁。
As a result, Hitler intervened and invaded Greece in April 1941. The important point is, it was never his intention to get involved in Greece and he only did so once Mussolini’s blunder started posing a threat to his own military position.
结果，希特勒于1941年4月介入并入侵希腊。关键在于，他原本无意卷入希腊事务，只是在墨索里尼的失误开始威胁到他自身的军事部署后，才不得不采取这一行动。
However, the most important consequence of the invasion of Greece was that Hitler’s single biggest military move of the entire war, Operation Barbarossa, the invasion and conquest of Russia, was delayed by several crucial months.
Situation in Europe by May/June 1941 at the conclusion of the Balkans Campaign, immediately before Operation Barbarossa
然而，入侵希腊带来的最重大后果是，希特勒在整个战争中最庞大的军事行动——“巴巴罗萨计划”，即入侵并征服苏联的行动——被推迟了至关重要的几个月。
1941年5月至6月，巴尔干战役结束后、“巴巴罗萨计划”即将启动时的欧洲局势
Within a short time of the actual invasion of Russia, the Siberian winter hit the invading armies of Hitler. It was immediately apparent that the Germans were ill-prepared for the Russian winter - due to one major factor. The invasion was supposed to have taken place months before, but because of Mussolini’s disastrous decision to invade Greece, all Hitler’s plans were delayed - with calamitous results. Not only was the average German soldier not equipped to fight in the Russian winter, but the German equipment of war itself soon ground to a halt as sub-zero conditions set in.
在入侵苏联后不久，西伯利亚的严冬便突袭了希特勒的侵略军。显而易见，德国人对苏联的冬天毫无准备，而这背后有一个关键原因：入侵本应在数月前进行，但由于墨索里尼入侵希腊的灾难性决定，希特勒的所有计划都被推迟，最终导致了灾难性的后果。普通德国士兵不仅没有配备在苏联冬季作战的装备，随着零下低温的降临，德国的战争装备也很快陷入瘫痪。
The early part of Operation Barbarossa saw some of the most stunning military victories in world history, with hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers taken prisoner while, in a matter of weeks, the invading German army had conquered an area so vast, it had never been equalled - before or since. The only thing that halted this frightening military behemoth was the Russian winter. (Of course the fact that Stalin managed to mobilise Russia’s industrial might at just the right time also helped.)
“巴巴罗萨计划”初期取得了世界历史上一些最惊人的军事胜利，数十万苏联士兵被俘，而入侵的德国军队在短短几周内征服的领土之广阔，前所未有、后无来者。唯一阻止这台可怕军事机器的，便是苏联的冬天。（当然，斯大林恰好在关键时刻动员了苏联的工业力量，这也起到了一定作用。）
Imagine if Hitler had succeeded in conquering Russia or at least knocking Stalin out of the war. There never would have been an eastern front, or of course, the disastrous military reversal when Russian forces started pushing towards Berlin. Hitler would have been able to focus the entire might of the German army on the western front, i.e. the French coast that later saw the invasion of Normandy. With such formidable defences, D-Day may never have happened, or may have been a failure on the part of the Allies. Imagine what would have happened if the Allies had never been able to retake Europe. Imagine how history would have turned out if there had never been anything like the Soviet empire - brought about as a direct result of the Russian reversal of the German invasion. It’s almost inconceivable, isn’t it?
试想一下，如果希特勒成功征服了苏联，或者至少将斯大林赶出了战争，那么就不会有东线战场，当然也不会有后来苏联军队向柏林推进时那灾难性的军事逆转。希特勒本可以将德国军队的全部力量集中在西线，也就是后来诺曼底登陆发生的法国海岸。面对如此坚固的防御，诺曼底登陆可能永远不会发生，或者会以盟军的失败告终。想象一下，如果盟军从未能够重新夺回欧洲会怎样；想象一下，如果没有苏联帝国——这一德国入侵苏联失败的直接产物——历史又会走向何方。这几乎是难以想象的，不是吗？
Whatever the case, WWII, and consequent history would have been quite different. All because of the bruised ego of an Italian fascist.
无论如何，第二次世界大战以及随之而来的历史都将截然不同。而这一切，都源于一个意大利法西斯分子受伤的自尊心。
Johann Rall Lost The Revolutionary War Because He Didn't Want His Poker Game Interrupted. 自学历史
This man here, is Johann Rall.
For those who don't know, Johann Rall is a lesser-known German Colonel who commanded the Hessian troops (German soldiers) that aided the British in the Revolutionary War.
约翰·拉尔因不愿中断扑克游戏而输掉了独立战争。
这个人就是约翰·拉尔。
对于不了解他的人来说，约翰·拉尔是一位鲜为人知的德国上校，他指挥着在独立战争中援助英国的黑森雇佣军（德国士兵）。
Rall is most notable for being the victim of George Washington’s near-mythic crossing of the Delaware, but he needn’t have been. Rall was handed intelligence about Washington’s crossing the night before it happened, but the note was in English, which he didn’t read, and he was too busy playing poker, according to some accounts.
拉尔最著名的事迹是成为乔治·华盛顿近乎传奇的“特拉华河渡河奇袭”的受害者，但这本不该发生。据一些记载，渡河行动发生的前一晚，拉尔就收到了有关华盛顿渡河的情报，但纸条是用英文写的，他没有阅读，而且当时他正忙于打扑克。
Rall decided to stuff the note about George Washington in his pocket and leave it for later to read.
拉尔决定把关于乔治·华盛顿的那张纸条塞进口袋，留到以后再看。
So on the night of December 25–26, 1776 General George Washington the man himself crossed the river with his troops on the way to Trenton, New Jersey. The Hessian regiments, which was camping around Trenton, were attacked and decisively defeated by the American Continental Army. The Hessians had supposedly let their guard down to celebrate the Christmas holiday, and (legend has it) Rall himself was misled by John Honeyman, a spy of Washington who convincingly posed as a British loyalist.
于是在1776年12月25日至26日夜间，乔治·华盛顿将军亲自率领部队渡河，前往新泽西州的特伦顿。当时在特伦顿周边扎营的黑森军团遭到了美国大陆军的袭击，并被彻底击败。据称，黑森士兵因庆祝圣诞节而放松了警惕，而且（传说）拉尔本人还被华盛顿的间谍约翰·霍尼曼所误导，霍尼曼成功伪装成了一名英国忠诚派。
While leading his troops during the battle, Rall was mortally wounded. He was shot twice in the side and needed to be carried back to his headquarters in the house of Stacy Potts a distinguished number of the Trenton community where he died that night. Before his death he requested a formal surrender to Washington.
在战役中指挥部队时，拉尔受了致命伤。他的侧面中了两枪，被抬回位于特伦顿社区知名人士斯泰西·波茨家中的司令部，并于当晚去世。临终前，他请求向华盛顿正式投降。
The note, which could have actually made the difference between victory and defeat for the Americans (and also the difference between life and death for the American revolutionary leader, George Washington), was found in Johann pocket after he died.
那张本可以改变美国人胜负命运（也能改变美国革命领袖乔治·华盛顿生死）的纸条，在约翰死后被人从他的口袋里发现。
Because George Washington survived the battle and was not killed by a prepared Hessian army, he was able to lead the American revolutionaries to victory over the British, and without America independence, I don't think I need to tell you that the world would be an extremely EXTREMELY different place, for the worse or better.
由于乔治·华盛顿在这场战役中幸存下来，没有被严阵以待的黑森军队杀害，他才得以带领美国革命者战胜英国。如果美国没有独立，我想无需多言，这个世界将会变得极其极其不同，无论好坏。
Vjekoslav Nemec
Master's in Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, University of Zagreb (Graduated 2016)
萨格勒布 大学电气工程与计算学院电气工程硕士（2016年毕业）
On September 28th, 1918, Henry Tandey, a British soldier serving with the 5th Duke of Wellington’s Regiment, saw a weary German soldier wandering into Tandey’s line of fire at the small French village of Marcoing.
1918年9月28日，在法国小镇马尔宽，服役于威灵顿公爵第五步兵团的英国士兵亨利·坦迪，看到一名疲惫的德国士兵闯入了他的射击范围。
The enemy soldier was hurt and didn’t even attempt to raise his rifle. Altough Tandey had a clear vision and an opportunity to reduce the number of enemy forces by one, he chose not to shoot. The German soldier allegedly saw what he did and nodded his thanks before getting out of the sight.
That German soldier was Adolf Hitler.
这名敌方士兵受伤了，甚至没有试图举起步枪。尽管坦迪视野清晰，有机会消灭一名敌军，但他选择了不开枪。据称，这名德国士兵看到了他的举动，点头致谢后便消失在了视线中。
而这名德国士兵，正是阿道夫·希特勒。
This story supposedly comes from Hitler himself. When Neville Chamberlain visited Hitler in 1938 (before the Münich Agreement), he saw a picture by Fortunino Matania ordered by the Green Howards regiment depicting a man saving his fellow comrade. Hitler had allegedly identified the man as Tandey on the basis of a U.K. newspaper article and claimed Tandey was the one who saved his life:
这个故事据称来自希特勒本人。1938年（慕尼黑协定签署前），内维尔·张伯伦拜访希特勒时，看到了一幅由格林霍华德团委托福尔图尼奥·马塔尼亚创作的画作，画中描绘了一名士兵救助战友的场景。据称，希特勒根据一篇英国报纸的文章认出画中人是坦迪，并声称坦迪就是救了他性命的人：
That man came so near to killing me that I thought I should never see Germany again; Providence saved me from such devilishly accurate fire as those English boys were aiming at us.
There has been a lot of evidence that this story is not actually true (see the sources below). But it doesn’t make it less cool nevertheless. If it were true, it would definitely be a legitimate candidate for a single decision that had the most dramatic effect on the entire 20th century.
“那个人差点就杀了我，我以为自己再也回不到德国了；是天意救了我，让我躲过了那些英国小伙子们精准得可怕的射击。”
有大量证据表明这个故事并非真实，但这并不妨碍它的趣味性。如果这是真的，那么它无疑是对整个20世纪产生最戏剧性影响的单一决定的合理候选。
If nothing else, it kinda reminded me of the following joke:
抛开其他不谈，这让我想起了下面这个笑话：
A man decided to visit a fortune teller. After looking into his hand and into the crystal ball, the fortune teller says in a dramatic tone:
“You sir, will be responsible for the death of millions”
一个人决定去拜访一位算命先生。算命先生看了看他的手相，又看了看水晶球，然后用夸张的语气说：
“先生，你将对数百万人的死亡负责。”
Shocked and taken aback, the man goes back to his home. Along the way, he passes near a river and sees a small boy drowning helplessly.
“Well, if millions of people are going to die because of me, I might at least save one life.”
男人又震惊又错愕，回到了家中。途中，他经过一条河边，看到一个小男孩无助地溺水。
“好吧，如果数百万人会因为我而死，我至少可以救一个人的命。”
He jumps into the river and pulls the boy out. The shocked mother comes in tears and says:
“ Oh my dear god, thank you so much Mr., you are a saint. Adolf, you should thank this gentleman yourself.”
他跳进河里，把男孩救了出来。男孩震惊的母亲赶来，泪流满面地说：
“哦，我的上帝，非常感谢你，先生，你真是个圣人。阿道夫，你应该亲自感谢这位先生。”
Tony Plank Former Lawyer and DBA, but forever Scrum Master Upvoted by Stuart Stevenson, Masters Political Science Major & History, A School. (2013) and Bryan Trussler, Master of Arts Religion and Culture & History, Wilfrid Laurier University (1992)
托尼·普兰克 前律师、工商管理博士，永远的敏捷教练 ,获斯图尔特·史蒂文森（2013年毕业于某学院，政治学与历史学硕士）和布莱恩·特拉斯勒（1992年毕业于威尔弗里德·劳里埃大学，宗教文化与历史学文学硕士）
In 1241 A.D., Mongol princes Batu Khan and Kadan decided to ignore the advice of their infamous top military strategist Subutai and return to Mongolia upon hearing of the death of Great Khan Ögedei.
公元1241年，蒙古王子拔都汗和卡丹汗在得知大汗窝阔台去世的消息后，决定无视其声名显赫的首席军事战略家速不台的建议，返回蒙古。
A little less than 800 years ago, Western civilization was on the brink of total annihilation. Ögedei, the third son of Genghis Khan, had continued his father’s violent and brutal imperial expansion into Europe and was on the verge of success. The news of the Great Khan’s death was fully or partially responsible for the Mongol withdrawal from Europe, sparing Western civilization from the near-universal destruction that followed in the wake of the Mongol hordes.
距今不到800年前，西方文明处于彻底毁灭的边缘。成吉思汗的三子窝阔台延续了父亲暴力残酷的帝国扩张，向欧洲进军且即将成功。大汗去世的消息是蒙古人撤离欧洲的全部或部分原因，使西方文明免遭蒙古大军所到之处几乎无处不在的毁灭。
The desire of Genghis Khan’s grandsons to attend the Kurultai, where a new Great Khan would be elected, is completely understandable. Neither would ultimately be sexted, as another of Genghis Khan’s grandsons, Güyük Khan, was elected instead, but they clearly had an interest in positioning themselves politically for the election. Subutai was undoubtedly furious at the decision, as he was in the process of planning the invasion of the Holy Roman Empire after achieving great success in Europe up to that point.
成吉思汗的孙子们希望参加忽里勒台大会（新大汗将在该大会上选举产生），这一点完全可以理解。最终他们二人都未能当选，取而代之的是成吉思汗的另一位孙子贵由汗，但显然他们都有意在选举中为自己谋取政治地位。速不台对这一决定无疑极为愤怒，因为在此之前他在欧洲已取得巨大成功，正计划入侵神圣罗马帝国。
Mongol siege of Ryazan in 1238
1238年蒙古围攻梁赞
Before the Mongols withdrew, they had already encountered some stiffened European resistance, such as in Austria. However, much of Europe east of Vienna had been laid waste by the Mongols. Even if they had not succeeded in occupying Western Europe, the devastation would undoubtedly have been apocalyptic.
在蒙古人撤离之前，他们已经遭遇了欧洲一些地区的顽强抵抗，例如奥地利。但维也纳以东的欧洲大部分地区已被蒙古人摧毁，即便他们未能成功占领西欧，其破坏也无疑将接近世界末日的程度。
Subutai was one of the most ruthless Mongol generals. Any city that refused to surrender unconditionally faced unspeakable horrors of death, destruction, and torture. The cold efficiency of the Mongol killing machine has rarely been matched, with entire cities massacred in a few hours of systematic execution. Over a period of just over a century, some estimates put the death toll at the hands of the Mongols as high as five percent of the global population.
速不台是蒙古最残忍的将领之一。任何拒绝无条件投降的城市都将面临难以言表的死亡、毁灭和酷刑恐怖。蒙古杀戮机器的冷酷效率鲜有匹敌，整座城市在数小时的系统性处决中被屠戮殆尽。在短短一个多世纪的时间里，据一些估计，蒙古人造成的死亡人数高达全球人口的5%。
Let that sink in. Five percent of all humans.
If Subutai had succeeded in completing and executing his plans, Europe might have been permanently set back by several centuries.
好好想想吧，那可是全人类的5%。
如果速不台成功完成并执行了他的计划，欧洲可能会被永久性地拖后几个世纪。
It should be noted that this classical view is no longer universally accepted. Many other factors have been proposed for the Mongol withdrawal, including the aforementioned stiffened resistance, diminishing returns from plunder, and tribal infighting prior to the news of Ögedei’s death. And despite the horror of their scorched-earth strategy, many historians view Mongol rule in a more benign light than Western history has traditionally portrayed it. While I personally am not convinced by these more modern interpretations, it is important to acknowledge these other plausible and less Eurocentric perspectives.
需要指出的是，这种传统观点已不再被普遍接受。关于蒙古人的撤离，人们提出了许多其他因素，包括上述的抵抗加剧、掠夺收益递减以及窝阔台去世消息传来前的部落内斗。尽管他们的焦土政策十分恐怖，但许多历史学家对蒙古统治的看法比西方传统历史所描绘的更为温和。虽然我个人并不认同这些较新的解读，但承认这些同样合理且不那么以欧洲为中心的观点也很重要。
Regardless of these caveats, there is little doubt that Ögedei’s death was a factor in the Mongol withdrawal, and world history would have been drastically altered if the hordes had advanced into Western Europe. As it turned out, the Mongols never returned to Western Europe to follow up on the territory they had already softened up. This single decision by two of Genghis Khan’s grandsons at that precise moment profoundly changed the shape of the modern world.
尽管存在这些注意事项，但毫无疑问，窝阔台的去世是蒙古人撤离的一个因素，若蒙古大军进军西欧，世界历史将会发生巨大改变。事实证明，蒙古人再也没有返回西欧，去巩固他们已经初步攻占的领土。成吉思汗的两位孙子在那个关键时刻做出的这一单一决定，从根本上改变了现代世界的格局。
Gerald Christie
杰拉尔德·克里斯蒂
In my opinion, the top answer is good, but not “the greatest effect”.
In my view, the greatest shift in human history was a direct result of a single culture’s decision to withhold food in exchange for labor.
我认为最佳答案不错，但并非“影响最深远”。
在我看来，人类历史上最重大的转变，直接源于某一文化做出的“以食物换取劳动”的决定。
Relatively shortly after the agricultural revolution in the Fertile Crescent, around 10,000 years ago, one of the settled tribal cultures in Mesopotamia began producing most, and eventually all, of their food through farming. Farming was already widely practiced in the region, but on a much smaller scale, with most tribes devoting at most a few hours per week to ensuring the regrowth of their favorite foods.
大约10000年前，在新月沃地的农业革命之后不久（相对而言），美索不达米亚的一个定居部落文化开始通过农业生产大部分（最终是全部）食物。当时该地区已广泛开展农业，但规模要小得多，大多数部落每周最多只花几个小时来确保他们喜爱的食物能够再生。
While the exact motivation for this decision is obviously unknowable due to the lack of records, a likely theory is that the massive increase in food availability required a class of people to manage the growing surplus. Once the farmers realized how much food they had, they decided to work less because farming is hard work (especially in that era). The managing class saw this and decided to force the farmers to continue working by locking up food stores and distributing small amounts at a time in exchange for labor. By this time, most of the arable land in the area would have been converted to farmland, making the previous foraging/hunting lifestyle of that culture impossible without traveling far afield. Once this basic system was in place, it was a short step to hiring armed guards and farm managers, who would eventually become owners (and extremely powerful).
由于缺乏记录，这一决定的确切动机显然无从知晓，但一种合理的理论是，食物供应量的大幅增加需要一个阶层来管理日益增多的剩余粮食。农民们一旦意识到自己拥有大量食物，就决定减少工作量，因为耕种非常辛苦（尤其是在那个时代）。管理阶层看到这一点后，决定通过封锁粮食储备、每次少量发放以换取劳动的方式，强迫农民继续劳作。到此时，该地区的大部分可耕地已变为农田，这使得该文化此前的采集/狩猎生活方式除非远赴他乡否则无法维持。一旦这一基本制度建立起来，招募武装警卫和农场管理者就只是一小步，而这些人最终会成为所有者（并拥有极大的权力）。
Again, this is just one theory, but the reason for the decision is not the most important aspect. The most important aspect is population expansion.
再说一次，这只是一种理论，但这一决定的原因并非最重要的方面，最重要的是人口扩张。
It is a well-established fact that population size is directly related to food supply. A given population will always expand to match its food production and will always decline in response to famine. Farming and food storage help prevent famine, which means that a population that farms extensively and saves a lot of food will continue to expand, assuming no plagues, war losses, or other mitigating factors.
人口规模与食物供应直接相关，这是一个公认的事实。特定人口总会扩张到与食物产量相匹配的规模，并会在饥荒时减少。农业生产和粮食储存有助于抵御饥荒，这意味着，在没有瘟疫、战争失利或其他缓解因素的情况下，一个大量耕种且储存大量粮食的人口将会持续扩张。
Once a population reaches a critical mass, it has no choice but to expand. At that time, most of the world was inhabited by small tribes, each with a unique culture, spread out enough that they did not always directly compete with each other for resources. They sometimes competed and sometimes raided each other, but there was no war as we know it today. When I say “war” in this context, I mean fighting for the purpose of forcing another group of people to submit to your will or be destroyed. Any culture that began expanding exponentially would also have been forced to start waging war, because the other cultures whose lands they were expanding into would have had no reason to adopt this new culture of hoarding food. At that time, food literally grew everywhere, so this practice would have seemed absurd to them.
一旦人口达到临界规模，就别无选择只能扩张。当时，世界大部分地区居住着小型部落，每个部落都有独特的文化，彼此分布足够分散，并不总是为资源直接竞争。他们有时会竞争，有时会相互袭击，但不存在我们今天所知的“战争”。在此背景下，我说的“战争”，是指为迫使另一群体服从自己的意志或被摧毁而进行的战斗。任何开始呈指数级扩张的文化都将被迫发动战争，因为那些被他们侵占土地的其他文化，没有理由接受这种囤积粮食的新文化——当时食物几乎随处可见，因此这种做法在他们看来会很荒谬。
In this type of conflict, several scenarios could have unfolded. First, there were cultures that refused to engage in war, a new and likely horrific concept to them. These cultures would simply be absorbed by the ever-expanding wave of the farming culture and ultimately forced to adopt the new way of life as their foraging grounds were converted to farmland. Within a few generations, all traces of their original culture would be erased, and their grandchildren would be farmers working in exchange for food.
在这类冲突中，可能会出现几种情况。第一种是那些拒绝参与战争的文化——战争对他们来说是一个全新且可能令人恐惧的概念。这些文化会被不断扩张的农耕文化浪潮轻易同化，随着他们的采集地变为农田，最终被迫接受新的生活方式。几代人之内，他们原有文化的所有痕迹都将消失，他们的孙辈将成为以劳动换取食物的农民。
Second, there were those who stood up for themselves and went to war. These cultures were invariably and completely destroyed, because war was a foreign concept to them, and their enemies had a larger population, massive food reserves, and well-equipped and trained soldiers (previously the guards of the food stores).
第二种是那些奋起反抗、投身战争的文化。这些文化无一例外地被彻底摧毁，因为战争对他们来说是陌生的概念，而他们的敌人拥有更庞大的人口、大量的粮食储备以及装备精良、训练有素的士兵（这些士兵此前是粮食储备的守卫）。
Third, there were cultures that refused to go to war and also refused to be absorbed. These cultures were also eventually annihilated, because the small parcel of land they managed to retain was not large enough to sustain their way of life. They would have become dependent on their neighbors for food, eventually losing all sense of identity and self-respect, and succumbing to problems like alcoholism and suicidal depression.
第三种是那些既拒绝参战也拒绝被同化的文化。这些文化最终也遭到了毁灭，因为他们勉强保留的小块土地不足以维持其生活方式。他们会变得依赖邻国提供食物，最终失去所有身份认同和自尊，陷入酗酒、自杀式抑郁等困境。
So what have we learned from this lengthy explanation? The decision by a single culture to hoard food completely changed the course of human civilization and our planet. This one decision annihilated thousands of unique cultures that had thrived since the dawn of humanity. This one decision converted most of the world’s arable land into farmland. This one decision eventually led to our massive overpopulation problem. This one decision invented war. This one decision is responsible for the extinction of thousands of animal, insect, and plant species due to habitat destruction. This one decision is responsible for the capitalist exploitation and enslavement of billions of humans. This one decision is ultimately responsible for the continued confinement and factory farming of billions of animals each year, which is one of the leading causes of global warming—a threat not only to our existence but also to the existence of all life on our planet.
那么，从这段冗长的阐述中我们能学到什么？某一文化囤积粮食的这一决定，彻底改变了人类文明和我们星球的进程。这一决定摧毁了数千种自人类诞生以来就蓬勃发展的独特文化，将世界上大部分可耕地变为农田，最终导致了我们严重的人口过剩问题，催生了战争，因栖息地破坏导致数千种动物、昆虫和植物物种灭绝，造成了资本主义对数十亿人的剥削和奴役，还导致每年数十亿动物持续被囚禁和工厂化养殖——这是全球变暖的主要原因之一，不仅威胁着人类的生存，也威胁着地球上所有生命的存在。
In a mere 10,000 years, a blx of an eye in the history of life on this planet, a single decision has ultimately brought all known life to the brink of extinction.
在仅仅10000年的时间里——这在地球生命史上不过是转瞬即逝的一刻——一个单一的决定最终将所有已知生命推向了灭绝的边缘。
Jay Bazzinotti An average plan executed today is better than a perfect plan executed tomorrow.
杰伊·巴齐诺蒂 今日执行的普通计划胜过明日执行的完美计划
On June 12, 1215, King John signed the Magna Carta at Runnymede, unwittingly creating Western civilization as we know it today. The Magna Carta underwent various revisions over the next 100 or so years, but it was the spark that helped foster individual freedom. No matter how flawed its 64 articles were, four of them still exist, including the concept of habeas corpus, which remained in effect for over 800 years. It was notable when George W. Bush suspended it in the United States—the first time a Western nation had done so in decades—to make it easier to detain and torture people. Four copies of the Magna Carta still survive, with one of the subsequent revisions housed at the U.S. National Archives in Washington, D.C.
1215年6月12日，约翰国王在伦尼米德签署了《大宪章》，无意间缔造了我们今天所知的西方文明。《大宪章》在之后的约100年里经历了多次修订，但它是催生个人自由的火花。无论其64条条款存在多少缺陷，其中四条至今仍然有效，包括人身保护令的概念——这一概念生效超过800年，而乔治·W·布什在美国暂停实施该制度的举动备受关注，这是数十年来西方 nations 首次这样做，目的是为了更方便地关押和折磨他人。《大宪章》目前仍存有四份副本，其中一份后续修订版收藏于华盛顿特区的美国国家档案馆。
If you read the book *Why Nations Fail*, it explores how the Magna Carta laid one of the five or six principles necessary for a free society.
如果你读过《国家为什么会失败》这本书，它会探讨《大宪章》如何奠定了自由社会所需的五六项原则之一。
The Magna Carta sparked the idea that “all men are created equal,” both in form and in fact, and that all men are equal before the law and entitled to certain rights. Without the articulation of this concept, “freedom” as we know it would not exist, and the Divine Right of Kings would continue to rule over impoverished feudal lands that would not be much different today than they were in 1215.
The Magna Carta, the spark of the idea that “all men are created equal.”
《大宪章》催生了“人人生而平等”的理念——无论在形式上还是事实上，所有人在法律面前一律平等，并享有某些权利。如果没有这一理念的阐述，我们所知的“自由”就不会存在，君权神授的制度将继续统治着贫瘠的封建土地，而如今的世界或许与1215年相比不会有太大差别。
《大宪章》，点燃了“人人生而平等”理念的火花。
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