QA问答：美国还能维持世界领先的科技超级大国地位多久？
How long will the United States stay as the world’s science superpower?
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网友：我在想，现在还有谁敢宣称美国是科学超级大国？根据《自然指数》，中国拥有全球十大领先科研机构中的七所……
正文翻译
Michael Arndt
I'm wondering how anyone could call the US the science superpower right now.
According to Nature Index, China has seven of the 10 leading research institutions in the world (Figure 1), has the 10 fastest growing research institutions (Figure 2), and does the most innovative research overall in the sciences (Figure 3). China is catching up with the US in pharmaceutical research.[1] Where is all this evidence that the US is the world’s superpower in science? From what I can see, China is now surpassing the US in military technology. According to Global Firepower, the US military barely has an advantage over Russia and China’s militaries (Figure 4). However, the US does have the most expensive military in the world (Figure 5). Just don’t tell Americans they don’t have the greatest military on the planet. They’ll lose their minds.Hilariously, American liberals are now some of the biggest chicken hawks on the planet.
我在想，现在还有谁敢宣称美国是科学超级大国？
根据《自然指数》，中国拥有全球十大领先科研机构中的七所（图1），拥有研发能力增长最快的十大科研机构（图2），并且在整体自然科学领域开展最具创新性的研究（图3）。中国正在制药研究领域迅速追赶美国。[1] 那么，所谓“美国是世界科学超级大国”的证据到底在哪里？据我所见，中国如今已在军事技术上超越美国。根据“全球火力”的排名，美军对俄罗斯和中国军队的优势已微乎其微（图4）。不过，美国确实拥有全球最昂贵的军队（图5）。只是千万别告诉美国人他们的军队不是世界上最强大的——他们会崩溃的。更讽刺的是，如今美国自由派竟成了全球最好战的一群人。
Figure 1. Top 10 research institutions in natural and health sciences in 2023.
图1. 2023年自然科学与健康科学领域全球十大研究机构。
Figure 2. Fast-rising research institutions 2020.
图2. 2020年科研机构增速最快榜单。
Figure 3. Nature Index 2024 Research Leaders: India follows in China’s footsteps as top ten changes again.
图3. 《自然指数2024研究领导者》：印度紧随中国脚步，全球前十格局再度洗牌。
Figure 4. 2025 Military Strength Ranking.
图4. 2025年军事实力排名。
Figure 5. Real Military Spending 2024 – Military PPP.
https://militaryppp.com/2025/05/12/real-military-spending-2024-military-ppp/
图5. 2024年实际军费支出——军用购买力平价（Military PPP）。网址链接
Figure 6. Democrats have become the party of war. Americans are tired of it.
Footnotes
[1] https://www.fastcompany.com/91342777/China-is-catching-up-to-the-u-s-in-pharmaceuticals-but-its-not-too-late-to-turn-that-around-China-u-s-pharmaceutical-development
第6部分. 民主党如今已成为战争政党。美国人对此已感到厌倦。脚注:网址
I'm wondering how anyone could call the US the science superpower right now.
According to Nature Index, China has seven of the 10 leading research institutions in the world (Figure 1), has the 10 fastest growing research institutions (Figure 2), and does the most innovative research overall in the sciences (Figure 3). China is catching up with the US in pharmaceutical research.[1] Where is all this evidence that the US is the world’s superpower in science? From what I can see, China is now surpassing the US in military technology. According to Global Firepower, the US military barely has an advantage over Russia and China’s militaries (Figure 4). However, the US does have the most expensive military in the world (Figure 5). Just don’t tell Americans they don’t have the greatest military on the planet. They’ll lose their minds.Hilariously, American liberals are now some of the biggest chicken hawks on the planet.
我在想，现在还有谁敢宣称美国是科学超级大国？
根据《自然指数》，中国拥有全球十大领先科研机构中的七所（图1），拥有研发能力增长最快的十大科研机构（图2），并且在整体自然科学领域开展最具创新性的研究（图3）。中国正在制药研究领域迅速追赶美国。[1] 那么，所谓“美国是世界科学超级大国”的证据到底在哪里？据我所见，中国如今已在军事技术上超越美国。根据“全球火力”的排名，美军对俄罗斯和中国军队的优势已微乎其微（图4）。不过，美国确实拥有全球最昂贵的军队（图5）。只是千万别告诉美国人他们的军队不是世界上最强大的——他们会崩溃的。更讽刺的是，如今美国自由派竟成了全球最好战的一群人。
Figure 1. Top 10 research institutions in natural and health sciences in 2023.
图1. 2023年自然科学与健康科学领域全球十大研究机构。
Figure 2. Fast-rising research institutions 2020.
图2. 2020年科研机构增速最快榜单。
Figure 3. Nature Index 2024 Research Leaders: India follows in China’s footsteps as top ten changes again.
图3. 《自然指数2024研究领导者》：印度紧随中国脚步，全球前十格局再度洗牌。
Figure 4. 2025 Military Strength Ranking.
图4. 2025年军事实力排名。
Figure 5. Real Military Spending 2024 – Military PPP.
https://militaryppp.com/2025/05/12/real-military-spending-2024-military-ppp/
图5. 2024年实际军费支出——军用购买力平价（Military PPP）。网址链接
Figure 6. Democrats have become the party of war. Americans are tired of it.
Footnotes
[1] https://www.fastcompany.com/91342777/China-is-catching-up-to-the-u-s-in-pharmaceuticals-but-its-not-too-late-to-turn-that-around-China-u-s-pharmaceutical-development
第6部分. 民主党如今已成为战争政党。美国人对此已感到厌倦。脚注:网址
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Ya know. This seems like a fairly innocent question to ask of me, OP, but I just know that I'm about to have my soul shaken in ways that it's getting far too used to being shaken of late. By that I mean that I'm almost afraid to answer this question bcuz in order for me to do so, I will have to Google a bunch of and in so doing will find out one more sick, deplorable, disgusting, idiotic, fu*ked-up, demented thing that's going to connect your relatively innocent question to America's As*hole-In-Chief…one Donald J. Trump.
你知道吗，这个问题看起来挺无奈的，但我知道回答它会让我灵魂再次遭受冲击——最近这种冲击实在太多了。我的意思是，我几乎不敢回答这个问题，因为为了回答它，我不得不去谷歌搜索一大堆，然后肯定会发现又一件令人作呕、卑劣、愚蠢、荒谬、精神错乱的事情，而这件事又会和你这个看似无辜的问题扯上关系——全都指向那个“美利坚屁股之王”……唐纳德·J·特朗普。
But, (takes deep breath,)…here goes…(I was going to say “nothing,” but I just know it's going to be alot of something!)
1st, I have to check the obvious…the “Trump Connection” of the subject-matter involved. Enter Google and wish me luck.
但是，（深吸一口气）……来吧……（本来想说“没什么”，但我清楚这绝对会是一堆“破事”！）
首先，我得查一下显而易见的东西——这个话题是否与“特朗普有关”。打开谷歌，祝我好运吧。
Okayyyy…check this out and pay particular attention to paragraph #9. I know. That's alot of reading, but if I had to do it, so do you. I promise you won’t be disappointed, unless you're a Maggot, which I dont think you are as a Maggot would never have it together enough to ask such a question:
好嘞……看看这个，特别注意第9段。我知道，读起来有点长，但既然我都看了，你也得看。我保证你不会失望，除非你是个蛆虫——但我觉得你不是，因为蛆虫根本提不出这么有深度的问题：
The Shift from Smart to Dumb Power | Toda Peace Institute
Donald Trump may be a good campaigner, but his government policy in the first few months is characterized by chaotic and irrational decisions:
https://toda.org/global-outlook/2025/the-shift-from-smart-to-dumb-power.html
《从聪明权力到愚蠢权力的转变》｜Toda和平研究所
“唐纳德·特朗普或许是个优秀的竞选者，但他上任头几个月的政府政策却充满了混乱和非理性的决策。”网址链接
Now we're getting somewhere. Here is the meat and potatoes of the matter:
Friday essay: Trump and Kennedy are destroying global science. Even Einstein questioned facts – but there’s a method to it
Modern science emerged precisely to deal with the way everything can be manipulated – and scepticism over ‘facts’ goes all the way back to Socrates.
https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-trump-and-kennedy-are-destroying-global-science-even-einstein-questioned-facts-but-theres-a-method-to-it-261568
现在我们开始进入正题了。以下是核心内容：《周五随笔：特朗普和肯尼迪正在摧毁全球科学。就连爱因斯坦也曾质疑事实——但科学自有其方法》“现代科学恰恰就是为了应对‘一切皆可被操纵’这一问题而诞生的——对‘事实’的怀疑甚至可以追溯到苏格拉底。”网址链接
So, in answer to your highly encouraging question, OP, I'm afraid I have some bad news for you…(heaves another sigh). America stopped being the “world's top superpower” precisely 205 days, 4,932 hours, 295,927 minutes, 17,755,678 seconds ago and counting. Which oddly enough is the exact amount of time that Trump has been POTUS. I'd say “do the math,” but as you can clearly see, I did the math for you. You're welcome.
所以，对于你这个极具启发性的问题，糟糕，恐怕我得告诉你一个坏消息……（再叹一口气）。美国停止作为“世界顶级超级大国”的确切时间是205天前、4,932小时前、295,927分钟前、17,755,678秒前——而且这个数字还在不断增加。奇怪的是，这正好就是特朗普担任总统的时间长度。我本来想说“你自己算算”，但如你所见，我已经替你算好了。 不客气。
Now I don't drink, but my very next Google is going to be to find out where my nearest liquor store is. I'm outta here.
And btw, I had an enormous amount of fun answering this question, OP*. I hope you enjoyed the journey.
我不打算喝酒，但接下来我要谷歌一下离我最近的酒吧在哪。我先撤了。
顺便说一句，回答这个问题让我乐在其中，哎呦呦。希望你也享受这段旅程。
Andre Lieven
Courtesy of the Mango Mussolini, that day is already over.
75% of US scientists who answered Nature poll consider leaving
More than 1,600 readers answered our poll; many said they were looking for jobs in Europe and Canada.
多亏了那位“芒果墨索里尼”，这一天已经结束了。《自然》杂志一项调查显示，75%的美国科学家考虑离开美国。超过1600名读者参与了我们的调查；许多人表示他们正在欧洲和加拿大寻找工作。
Kimberley
Not that long, with trump defunding all of the universities and research departments, plus running off all the ‘foreign scientists’.All hail China.
时间剩下不多了，特朗普正在削减所有大学和研究部门的资金，还赶走了所有“外国科学家”。中国万岁。
Tom Lowe
Where did you get that from?
Unless you’re throwing around ‘superpower’ just because the US member states are designated as one country unlike for instance the EU member states.
Science output per capita is nothing remarkable in the US. The big universities are a large proportion foreign students who come in for the facilities. Funding is being cut and the leadership is anti-science.
The first COVID vaccines were by Turkish scientists working in Germany. The first cochlear eat implant and cervical cancer drug were in Australia. The most incredible scientific instrument in the world is in Geneva. There is tonnes of amazing science going on in China, and India. Science happens all over the world.
你这说法是从哪来的？
除非你只是因为美国作为一个单一国家（不像欧盟那样由多个国家组成）就随便把“超级大国”这个词扔出来。
按人均计算，美国的科研产出并不突出。顶尖大学里很大一部分博士生都是外国人，他们是为了设施才来的。如今资金正在被削减，而领导人又是反科学的。
第一支新冠疫苗是由在德国工作的土耳其科学家研发的。第一个人工耳蜗植入术和宫颈癌药物来自澳大利亚。世界上最了不起的科学仪器在日内瓦。中国和印度也在进行大量惊人的科学研究。科学遍布全世界。
Italian Eyes
The United States is STILL CONSIDERED the global leader is science and technology, according to the blabbering big mouths of the world wide web.
根据网络上那些夸夸其谈的大嘴巴，美国仍然被认为是全球科学与技术的领导者。
Our strengths are:
Massive Research and Development Investments………because the USA is aiming to spend $1 trillion on research and development this year alone……more than any other country.
Noble Prize Dominance………..since 2020, the United States scientists have won more Nobel Prizes than the rest of the world combined.
Innovation Hotspots………….breakthroughs like CHATGPT and nuclear fusion achievements originated in Us labs..
Global Talent Magnet…………..over 40% of the top US doctorate holders were born abroad.
我们的优势包括：
巨额研发投入……因为美国今年计划在研发上投入1万亿美元……超过任何其他国家。
诺贝尔奖主导地位……自2020年以来，美国科学家获得的诺贝尔奖比世界其他国家加起来还多。
创新热点……像ChatGPT和核聚变突破都源自美国实验室。
全球人才吸铁石……美国超过40%的顶尖博士学位持有者出生在国外。
But the challenges will be :
China’s rapid rise.
Political Instability.
Cuts to scientific infrastructure.
Erosion of soft power.
The overall answer, according to the above, would be that the United States may NOT be the undisputed scientific superpower by 2035–2045.
但面临的挑战包括：
中国的快速崛起、
政治不稳定、
科研基础设施削减、
软实力削弱。
综上所述，美国可能到2035–2045年就不再是无可争议的科学超级大国了。
Justin Hopkins
at-least until the new century. America is atleast one to two generations ahead of China and our newest military technology is essentially impossible to defeat. The U.S. holds 30% of the world’s wealth and resources to advance our technology are virtually unlimited. Our scientific dominance is still very much intact but not growing stronger at the moment.
The real question is when we will stop attracting top talent which may come sooner.
至少要到新世纪。美国在科技上至少领先中国一到两代，我们最新的军事技术几乎是不可战胜的。美国掌握着全球30%的财富，用于推动技术进步的资源几乎是无限的。我们的科学主导地位依然稳固，但目前并未变得更强大。
真正的问题是，我们何时会停止吸引顶尖人才——这可能会比预想来得更快。
Ludwig Nijholt
I’m not sure exactly what science superpower is supposed to signify (science and power are two very different things, after all), but currently the US are working hard to ruin their reputation as a ‘scientific world leader’. Scinetists have been warning about this trend for years, but to little avail, and now there’s a government that doesn’t like scientific fatcs that don’t agree with their specific narrative.
我不太确定“科学超级大国”具体指什么（毕竟科学和权力是两码事），但目前美国正在努力毁掉自己作为“科学世界领袖”的声誉。科学家们多年来一直在警告这一趋势，但收效甚微，而现在又来了一个不喜欢与其特定叙事相悖的科学事实的政府。
So yes, this is a definite worry.
It… Doesn’t need to?
It also typically hasn’t been.
And historically no nation dominates across all, or even most, fields of scientific inquiry at the same time.
所以，是的，这确实令人担忧。
其实……也没必要非得当“超级大国”吧？
历史上也从未如此。
而且，没有任何一个国家能同时在大多数甚至所有科学领域占据主导地位。
The number of internet trolls that seem to want to believe that the US needs to dominate in the technology sphere, across all fields of expertise, in order to defend its role as one of the world’s most dominant powers… Is rather amusing a very pathetic way. It speaks to a lack of knowledge about history. It speaks to a lack of understanding of how economies of scale work. It speaks to a lack of understanding of how people in general work. It also speaks to a lack of appreciation of what is entailed when it comes to being “on the bleeding edge of science.”
网上有太多键盘侠似乎坚信，美国必须在所有技术领域全面领先，才能维持其作为世界最强国之一的地位……这既可笑又可悲。这反映出他们对历史的无知、对规模经济运作方式的不了解、对人性的误判，也缺乏对“站在科学最前沿”究竟意味着什么的理解。
Further, in the domain where science and technology meets the battlefield. It speaks to a lack of awareness of how warfare works, and the significance of technology gaps. The guy with the most advanced hardware doesn’t always win. It is the guy who shows up with with enough material that is sufficient to the task before them.
此外，在科学与技术应用于战场的领域，这些人还缺乏对战争本质和科技差距重要性的认知。拥有最先进硬件的一方并不总是赢家。真正取胜的是那些带着足够且适用装备上场的人。
People often take the wrong lessons away from wars. Desert Storm, and Iraqi Freedom both demonstrated that yes, a massively technological and material overmatch can lead to very devastating results for the guy on the receiving end. But by the same token, the Serbians demonstrated in the 1990’s that you do not need the latest and greatest technology to defeat highly advanced weapons platforms if the attacker gets complacent.
人们常常从战争中得出错误的结论。沙漠风暴行动和伊拉克自由行动确实表明，压倒性的技术和物资优势可以给对手带来毁灭性打击。但同样，1990年代的塞尔维亚人也证明了，如果进攻方过于自满，即使没有最新最先进的技术，也能击败高度先进的武器平台。
Being the guy at the technology disadvantage makes things a lot more difficult, there certainly will likely be more blood and treasure involved in achieving an obxtive. But it doesn’t mean the side with the technological edge in (insert item here) is undefeatable.
处于技术劣势的一方当然会面临更多困难，达成目标可能需要付出更多鲜血和财富。但这并不意味着拥有技术优势的一方就不可战胜。
The United States doesn’t need to be on the bleeding edge of technology for everything. Heck, it doesn’t need to be on the bleeding edge of technology for most things. It just needs to not fall so far behind in the technology race that its technological capabilities become laughable in comparison.
美国不需要在所有领域都处于技术最前沿。事实上，甚至不需要在大多数领域领先。只要不至于在技术竞赛中落后到让人嘲笑的地步就行了。
But keeping near the cutting edge on military applications of technical capabilities certainly doesn’t hurt in the sphere of military power projection.
但在军事技术应用方面保持接近尖端水平，无疑有助于美国的军事力量投射。
United States of America
A very long time
It looks like, with Trumpism replacing democracy, that day is over.
已经有很长一段时间。但看起来，随着特朗普主义取代民主，这一天已经结束了。
Kamlesh Pd Paswan
If I am correct ,so far 360 scientists from the US have won Nobel from 1950 onwards.It is going to maintain its superiority.Sam Altman,s Open AI is contributing exceptionally to American economy under Trump.
如果我没记错的话，从1950年至今，已有360位美国科学家获得诺贝尔奖。美国将继续保持其领先地位。山姆·阿尔特曼（Sam Altman）的OpenAI在特朗普治下正为美国经济做出非凡贡献。
Simon Kepp Nielsen
That ship has sailed already. The US, is still a major contributor in science, but not a super power, and only due to the H1B visa, allowing foreign educated researchers to come to the US to do their research. The US native born and educated are mostly too dumb to make serious contributions to science.
那艘船早已驶离港口。美国仍是科学的重要贡献者，但已不再是超级大国，这主要依赖H1B签证吸引外国培养的研究人员赴美工作。美国本土出生和受教育的人大多太愚笨，无法对科学做出严肃贡献。
Brady Milton
I saw the world science statistics just a month ago and they listed the top 43 scientific fields of research and advancement and development in the world today, China led in the top 38 of the fields. Of course everyday Americans would never get to hear of this because of their wonderful democratic freedom of speech and the press. Even my own country was leader in the field of medical research.
就在一个月前，我看过一份全球科学统计数据，列出了当今世界43个最重要的科研与技术发展领域，中国在其中38个领域位居第一。当然，普通美国人永远不会听到这些，因为他们享有美妙的“言论和新闻自由”。就连我自己的国家也在医学研究领域处于领先地位。
Jay Snead
It will remain the science leader until another country takes over. Don’t hold your breath, there is no contender on the horizon.
The US has 423 Nobel laureates. The #2 country is the UK with 143. China has 8. Approximately 71% of all Nobel Prizes have been awarded to Americans.
13 of the top 20 universities in the world are American, 3 are British, 2 are Chinese.
The US is consistently the largest research & Development spender, about 30% of the world total.
The US has 63% of the world's most highly cited publications. In 2024, the US led the world in the number of Highly Cited Researchers, with 2,507 recognized, representing 36.4% of the global total.
The US remains the global leader in attracting international graduate students.
美国将一直保持科学领导地位，直到另一个国家取而代之。别屏住呼吸等待，因为目前还没有这样的竞争者。
美国拥有423位诺贝尔奖得主。排名第二的是英国，有143位。中国只有8位。大约71%的诺贝尔奖都颁给了美国人。
全球前20所大学中，13所是美国的，3所是英国的，2所是中国的。
美国始终是全球最大的研发支出国，约占全球总额的30%。
美国拥有全球63%的高被引论文。2024年，美国在“全球高被引科学家”榜单上以2,507人位居第一，占全球总数的36.4%。
美国仍然是吸引国际研究生最多的国家。
David Miller
Good question. I think the US has already lost that position with regard to the science and technology of AI and high performance chip design and production, despite knowing about these and at least giving lip service to their importance. China is now leading in college AI programs, and the US no longer has any universities within the top 10, according to US News. China is also now teaching AI starting in grade school, whereas the US can’t agree if Math, Science, History or English should be taught anymore as some people think these subjects are “racist.” And the US’s #1 chip maker for the majority of the past 50 years, Intel, has nearly collapsed and is unable to hold a candle to modern chip designers and manufacturers such as Taiwan Semiconductor.
好问题。我认为美国在人工智能和高性能芯片设计与制造领域的科学与技术领先地位已经丧失，尽管早就意识到这些问题的重要性，但只是嘴上说说而已。如今，中国在高校AI项目上已处于领先地位，而根据《美国新闻》，美国已无一所大学进入全球前十。中国甚至从小学就开始教授AI，而美国还在争论数学、科学、历史或英语是否该教，因为有些人认为这些科目“有种族主义色彩”。过去50年中美国头号芯片制造商英特尔如今几乎崩溃，完全无法与台积电等现代芯片设计和制造商相提并论。
The US dropped from #1 in the world in public education to #25 within the past 50 years, and has among the highest rates of illiteracy in the developed world. I think it’s high time for a massive restructuring and reinvigorating of American education and industry. We can’t succeed on idiotic efforts to propagate blue hair and child castrations, nor will red hats alone make us smarter and productive. We have some hard work ahead of us to even get back in the game.
在过去50年里，美国的公共教育排名从世界第一跌至第25位，并且在发达国家中识字率最低。现在是时候对美国教育和产业进行大规模重组和振兴了。靠推广蓝发和阉割儿童这类愚蠢行为，或者仅仅靠红帽子，我们不可能变得更聪明、更有生产力。前方还有艰巨的工作要做，我们甚至还没重新回到赛场。
Best AI college programs in the world according to US News. US universities are notably absent from the top.
根据《美国新闻》评选的全球最佳AI大学项目，美国高校明显缺席前十名。
Crystal Storm
I'm not trying to be offensive when I say this. But at this point I think it's scientifically impossible for the United States to stay as the world science superpower. In any case according to what I read outside the US media. China is well on their way being generations ahead.
我说这话并非有意冒犯，但此时此刻，美国继续作为世界科学超级大国在科学上已不可能。根据我在美国媒体之外读到的信息，中国早已遥遥领先，甚至领先了好几代。
Believe this or not many years ago I read a report that even Mexico was working on creating a flying cars. So much for the typical stereotypes on the media. That the country is nothing but cartels and gangs and that they're behind the times when it comes to technology.
信不信由你，很多年前我读过一份报告，连墨西哥都在研发飞行汽车。典型的媒体刻板印象总说那个国家除了毒枭和帮派一无是处，在科技上更是落后时代——事实显然并非如此。
Rajspew
They are not. Its already game over in that space. China has already overtaken USA in most scientific disciplines. I see the gap getting bigger as the USA’s previous science power was based on the backs of Asian Scientists. Now the best will stay in Asia. Trump also sped the process up on China’s side!
美国已经不是了。这场游戏已经结束。中国在大多数科学学科上已经超越美国。差距只会越来越大，因为美国过去的科学实力很大程度上依赖亚洲科学家。如今，最优秀的人才会留在亚洲。特朗普还加速了中国在这方面的进程！
Michael Newton
you need to put your question in the correct context,
how long will the united states stay as the worlds science superpower by steeling every one else's inventions and claims them as their own as they have always done.
that is the question you should be asking because that is all they have ever done.
你需要把问题放在正确的语境下：
美国还能靠窃取他国发明并据为己有来维持多久“世界科学超级大国”的地位？
这才是你应该问的问题，因为这正是美国一直以来的做法。