印度的经济增长真的这么高吗？（2）

 
@BallyBoy95
I agree with Jayanat 90% of the time. But he does occasionally say something silly on occasion, which I'm surprised nobody brings to attention.
One time he said it was more important for Indians* to learn the WW2 Holocaust of the Jewish peoples by the Nazis (even though, many credible sources claim this has been deeply exaggerated, and method of execution fabricated and so forth).
More important, than Indians studying their own famines and holocausts.
It's great if you want Indians to move abroad to work for Western countries. But for India's own national development, it is best they study their own history as well. Perhaps with a priority into themselves.
So Jayant does occasionally slip up, and nobody tells him because he's usually on a roll with roasting India (not without good reason ofc, I must say).
 
我90%的时间都同意贾亚纳特（Jayanat）的观点，但他偶尔也会说一些傻话，我很惊讶为什么没人注意到。
有一次，他说对印度人来说，了解纳粹在第二次世界大战中对犹太人的大屠杀更为重要（尽管许多可靠的消息来源称这一事件被严重夸大，处决方法也是捏造的）。
这比印度人研究自己的饥荒和大屠杀更重要。
如果你希望印度人移居国外并为西方国家工作，这很好。但为了印度自身的国家发展，他们最好也研究一下自己的历史，也许他们应该优先考虑自己。
所以，贾亚纳特（Jayanat）偶尔也会失言，但没人告诉他，因为他通常都在抨击印度（当然，我必须说他的不无道理）。
 
@lordlee6473
I understand the need to scrutinize the economic numbers reported by Modi’s government for accountability, but I think it’s more important to focus on if the overall quality of living is improving or not for the majority of the Indian people. China’s growth numbers have always been questioned by people outside China, but things like living standards, literacy rate, life expectancy, birth survival rate, import/export, electricity generation, highway length, car ownership, high protein food production, etc cannot easily be faked. Modi is a Hindu nationalist who openly discriminate against non Hindus, and his anti China policies are extremely unpopular in the eyes of the Chinese. I would say without him India could have probably done even better. With China’s rise and America’s decline, the global south is enjoying an unprecedented friendly environment for economic growths. And Modi chose to antagonize China,  to instigate border disputes, to keep the best economic partner it could ever have away. What a bad decision his government has made.
 
我理解有必要对莫迪政府报告的经济数据进行仔细审查以追究其责任，但我认为更重要的是关注大多数印度人民的整体生活质量是否有所改善。中国的经济增长数字一直受到境外人士的质疑，但像生活水平、识字率、预期寿命、出生存活率、进出口、发电量、高速公路长度、汽车保有量、高蛋白食品产量等数据都不容易造假。莫迪是公开歧视非印度教徒的印度教民族主义者，他的反华政策在中国人眼中极不受欢迎。我想说，如果没有他，印度可能会做得更好。随着中国的崛起和美国的衰落，全球南方正享受着前所未有的友好经济增长环境。而莫迪却选择与中国作对，挑起边界争端，将最好的经济伙伴拒之门外。莫迪政府做出了多么错误的决定啊。
 
@edhiepitz
in case you don't know India dependent a lot from Western donation (Foreign Aid). Basically The west send free money to India and in turn India agree to western stance like antagonizing China. This is the reason why the west were furious when India don't participate to Antagonize Russia.
 
你可能还不知道，印度在很大程度上依赖于西方的捐赠（外国援助）。基本上，西方免费向印度提供资金，而印度则同意西方的立场，比如与中国作对。这就是当印度不参与对抗俄罗斯时，西方大为恼火的原因。
 
@henli-rw5dw
I would say that being hostile to China may have gained additional western investment.  However, too much hostility means wasting money on border defense and no infrastructure investment from China.  But, it does help him win election, which is probably the most important thing.
 
我想说对中国抱有敌意可能会获得西方的额外投资。然而，过多的敌意意味着在边境防务上浪费资金，也意味着不会从中国获得基础设施投资。不过，这确实有助于他赢得大选，这可能是最重要的。
 
@Perceptionista
@xiangzihua  From a certain POV, Bhandari is only strategically useful in that he exposes and bursts the delusional bubble of grandeur and perceived superiority that many Indian nationalists hold to. But other than that, he is just a pro-West, ultra far-right libertarian who is so neck deep in pro-US imperial kool aid, it's not even funny. (He thinks Western colonialism was the best thing ever because the rest of the world, except East Asians, are dumb for civilization. Literally his tweets.)
 
@向子华 从某种角度看，班达里（Bhandari）唯一的战略价值在于他揭露并戳破了许多印度民族主义者所持有的自大狂妄和自以为优越的幻想。但除此之外，他只是一个深陷亲美帝国主义的狂热的亲西方的极右翼自由主义者，这甚至一点也不好笑（他认为西方殖民主义是有史以来最好的事情，因为除了东亚人之外，世界上其他人都缺乏文明。他的推文就是这么说的）。
 
@Skeleman
India, despite barely ever industrializing, has started to de-industrialize.
Time recently published a piece titled "How India’s Economy Has Really Fared Under Modi".
In it, they say:
"Despite all of Modi’s drumbeating on boosting India’s manufacturing sector with his much-trumpeted “Make in India” campaign, manufacturing’s share of the GDP has fallen. Far from increasing manufacturing jobs, India is losing them in millions. The ranks of farmworkers, meanwhile, have risen by 60 million in the past four years. Agriculture now actually employs a greater share of workers than it did five years ago, a reversal that points to deindustrialization."
 
尽管印度几乎从未实现过工业化，但它已经开始去工业化。
《时代》周刊最近发表了一篇题为“印度经济在莫迪领导下的真实表现”的文章。
文中写道：
“尽管莫迪大肆鼓吹“印度制造”运动以促进印度制造业的发展，但制造业在其国内生产总值中所占的份额却在下降。印度非但没有增加制造业的工作岗位，反而数以百万计的工作岗位正在流失。与此同时，农业雇员的数量在过去四年里增加了6000万人。与五年前相比，现在农业实际上雇用了更多的工人，这一逆转表明了去工业化的趋势"。
 
@maxbig9021
The increase of 60 million people working in the agricultural sector indicates growing poverty, forcing people to move to rural areas to sustain themselves. It also shows an increase in manual labor in agriculture due to the high cost of machinery, which has become too expensive for this sector. Most importantly, this highlights the prence of cheap labor.
 
在农业部门工作的人数增加了6000万，这表明印度的贫困现象日益严重，迫使人们迁移到农村地区以维持生计。这也表明由于机械的成本过高，农业部门的体力劳动有所增加。最重要的是，这凸显了廉价劳动力的普遍性。
 
@shah_en_shah
Modi implemented some terrible policies like demonitisation. Because of demonitisation so many small scale industries are closed.  Unemployment among youth heavily increased. Farmers were also treated brutally by the current government. Farmers suicide has become a common thing India. Government don't want to ensure minimum support price for many farm crops. I hope the current regime will change  in the upcoming election.
 
莫迪实施了一些可怕的政策，比如“废钞令”。由于“废钞令”，许多小规模的工厂关闭了，青年的失业率严重上升。农民也受到了现政府的粗暴对待，农民自杀已成为印度的普遍现象。政府不想确保许多农作物的最低支持价格，我希望现任政府能在即将到来的大选中有所改变。
 
@sciagurrato1831
India’s economy seems paradoxical — and this ex excellent video goes a long way to explaining it.  The anchoring of much of the economy on credit (Western model) does explain why there are no Indian goods to be found anywhere (either consumer or industrial). Also, rising inequality, also western style.
 
印度的经济似乎是自相矛盾的--这段出色的视频很好地解释了这一点。印度的大部分经济依赖信贷（西方模式）确实解释了为什么到处都找不到印度商品（无论是消费品还是工业品）。此外，印度的不平等现象也在加剧，这也是西方式的。
 
@user-to3wl6ux2q
elon musk after he realize he will be screwed if he invest in that 1970s shitehole country, he just cancel the meeting at last minute and went to the real King, omg the embarrassment of that
 
埃隆-马斯克意识到如果在那个还处在20世纪70年代的垃圾国家投资，他就会完蛋，于是他在最后一刻取消了会议，去找真正的国王了。天哪，这实在是太尴尬了。
 
@rrb2nd
Not really. Tesla is uncompetitive, which is why it is looking to outsource anyway…no real loss of Tesla not being manufactured here. Cheaper and reliable EVs and hybrids are being made in India, so not that bad…MSME boost will ensure the complete supply chain is localised
 
其实不然。特斯拉缺乏竞争力，这也是它寻求外包的原因......特斯拉不在印度生产并不会造成真正的损失。印度正在制造更便宜、更可靠的电动车和混合动力车，所以也没那么糟糕......促进中小微企业发展将确保完整的供应链本地化。
 
@user-rc6my6mj2l
India needs to attract a lot of fdi and build their manufacturing industry to provide jobs for the masses, from the lowest rank to the management level, make the economy into a surplus economy and invest in the education and infrastructure, if India do not have surplus economy, India will be doom because of its huge population without job, potential time bomb
 
印度需要吸引大量外国直接投资，建立自己的制造业，从最底层到管理层，为大众提供就业机会，使经济成为盈余经济并投资于教育和基础设施。如果印度经济没有盈余，印度将因其庞大的失业人口成为潜在的定时炸弹而灭亡。
 
@peterg0
India was created by british,so many parts and people not belonged to this so-called country before british arrival...After their independence from british,they didn't let those people or lands to freedom and kept her master british way of ruling this land...that's why this country has lots of problem forever!!!!Amitabha
 
印度是由英国人创建的，在英国人到来之前，有很多地方和人民并不属于这个所谓的国家......从英国独立后，他们并没有让这些人民或土地获得自由，而是继续以英国人的方式统治这片土地......这就是为什么这个国家永远都有很多问题的原因!!!!阿弥陀佛。
 
@donkeykong516
That’s same as my conclusion. Organic nation creation is lasting & functional. Artificial nation creation, like India, has the issue of being either here nor there. The US loves India, because India isn’t going anywhere & isn’t even a player
 
这和我的结论一样。有机的国家的创建是持久的、起作用的。而像印度这样的人造国家，则存在“非此即彼”的问题。美国喜欢印度是因为印度什么都干不了，它甚至都不是一个参与者。
 
@AG-et6jp
Very true observation.
This is the reason the government needs to feed its citizens "patriotism" in high dose! Most indians are proud of myths, wrong information or history! Just ask any such high-dosed indians, when in the history India had been a united country! And check the answers. It will be entertaining...
 
非常正确的观点。
这就是政府需要大剂量灌输公民“爱国主义”的原因！大多数印度人都为神话、错误的信息或历史感到自豪！只要问问这些大量灌输爱国主义的印度人，印度历史上什么时候是一个统一的国家！然后检查答案。你会发现这会很有趣……
 
@jamesho8820
I have always admired the successes of American South Asian Indians.  As an ethnic group they generate among the highest incomes in the US.  Unfortunately, the system and culture in India does not necessarily foster the same degree of success with the exception of a tiny elite which exploits the many impoverished citizens.  It would really be in India's interests if they could resolve their differences with China.  If given the opportunity, the Chinese could be a huge source of investment and certainly a benefit to India by sharing experiences and practices which has made China so successful.  America is always in the background always devising ways of thwarting any possible alliances that they see as threats to their hegemony.
 
我一直很钦佩美国南亚裔印度人的成功。作为一个族群，他们是美国收入最高的人群之一。不幸的是，印度的制度和文化并不一定能促进同样程度的成功，因为只有极少数精英剥削着众多贫困的公民。如果印度能够解决与中国的分歧，那将真正符合印度的利益。如果有机会，中国人可以成为巨大的投资来源，而且通过分享使中国如此成功的经验和做法，肯定会使印度受益。美国总是在背后想方设法阻挠所有可能的联盟，因为他们认为这些联盟会威胁到他们的霸权。
 
@BallyBoy95
As an Indian, some Indian men are so phenomenally rude the moment they shut the door, you will actually be shocked. Trust me, you have no idea. We just have the basic sense unlike most communities and keep our mouths shut in the open (other communities are direct and quarrel right there and then!).
I've seen my dad be extremely kind, flattering and charming to people irl. Only for him to come home and say the most effed up stuff about them.
Where I am left thinking, where th did that even come from?!
Over the years, I'd realised he wasn't the lone exception as I had previously assumed.
 
作为一个印度人，有些印度男人在关上门的那一刻会变得非常粗鲁无礼，你一定会大吃一惊。相信我，你绝对想不到。不像大多数族群，我们只是有基本的理智，我们在公开场合会闭上嘴巴（其他族群很直接，他们会当场吵架！）。
我见过我爸爸在公共场合对人非常和蔼可亲、谄媚迷人，但他回到家后，却针对他们说了最难听的话。
我就在想，这到底是怎么一回事？
这些年来，我意识到他并不像我之前假设的那样是个特例。
 
@Guitarpima
You said it yourself, “services“. Until common “services“ are taken from Paris sites, nothing will change. You cannot fix something that was built broken. The monetary system is outdated. We are capable of creating more than enough stuff, and food, for every woman and man on this planet. Technology will let less than 10% of the population maintain it all. What does that say about the monetary system? If you knew the proper definition, we could transition to capitalism.
 
你自己说的，“服务”。除非巴黎网站的常用“服务”被取消，否则一切都不会改变。你不可能修复原本就坏掉的东西。货币体系已经过时了。我们现在有能力为地球上的每一位男女创造足够的物质和食物。科技可以让不到10%的人口做到这一切。这说明了什么？如果你知道正确的定义，我们就能过渡到资本主义。
 
@paytonirby4904
Chandrasekhar is a huge fan of “services” and “remittances” but fails to address the lack of industrial development and poor standard of living that most of the country faces. He gets away with technicalities that allow him to avoid the long term/structural problems that India has no way to solve so long as it remains a glorified call center
 
钱德拉塞卡（Chandrasekhar）是“服务业”和“汇款”的忠实拥趸，但这却未能解决该国大部分地区面临的工业发展不足和生活水平低下的问题。他从技术角度出发，回避了印度无法解决的长期/结构性问题，只要印度仍然是一个被美化的呼叫中心即可。
 
@dee-vee
@paytonirby4904  
Compared to manufacturing, services employ much fewer people.  It does not scale.  For a country like India, scaling is critical.  Also, services do not require much infrastructure or enable/facilitate the development of it.  This is the critical mistake India made: unlike China, it skipped a step in economic development -- it skipped manufacturing.
 
与制造业相比，服务业雇用的人员要少得多，因为它缺乏规模。对于印度这样的国家来说，扩大规模至关重要。此外，服务业不需要太多的基础设施，也无法支持/促进基础设施的发展。这是印度犯的关键错误：与中国不同，它在经济发展中跳过了这一步--它跳过了制造业。
 
@bemmychan1518
There is a Chinese saying..."If you want to be wealthy, build road first". So whilst we should not denigrate India, perhaps it will be much wiser for India to build its domestic infrastructure first, that is convenient snd affordable for its people before going on about being a superpower which brings nothing to the table for India's citizenry. India should not have to follow any country...just follow the heart of its people if it wants to succeed. Forget about competing with China. Honestly i believe China don't care if they are not no.1 as long as its people lives a happy and prosperous life.
 
中国有句俗话......“要想富，先修路”。因此，虽然我们不应该贬低印度，但也许印度更明智的做法是先建设国内的基础设施，让人民方便使用并负担得起，然后再去做一个超级大国，因为这对印度人民来说毫无益处。印度不应该追随任何国家......如果它想成功，只需追随其人民的心声即可。忘记与中国竞争吧。老实说，只要人民过上幸福美满的生活就好，我相信中国并不在乎自己是不是第一。
 
@louiesmiths8479
Ms. Desai,
,what happened to prof. Hudson… he left?  it would be nice to hear his view and analysis on India’s economy and future.. and perhaps he sees some solution to India’s economic problems.
 
Desai女士，
如果能听听她对印度经济和未来的看法和分析就好了，也许她能找到解决印度经济问题的办法。
 
@maxwolf8055
He knows nothing about India, and it's almost impossible to get accurate information about the country where all statistics are heavily manipulated. India has created an excellent Ponzi scheme that works well for the wealthiest, while the many who hope and are willing to postpone their current needs—primarily those under 40, who make up the majority—keep this bubble afloat. There's no real talk of India's development, and the Indian elite understand this, living comfortably off the backs of 1.5 billion people. We can only talk about economy and development when we no longer see people in India living in dirty water and cardboard boxes.
 
她对印度一无所知，要想得到关于这个国家的准确信息几乎是不可能的，因为所有的统计数据都被严重篡改了。印度创造了一个极好的庞氏骗局，这对最富有的人很有效，而许多希望并愿意推迟当前需求的人--主要是占大多数的40岁以下的人--则维持着这个泡沫。印度的发展无从谈起，而印度的精英们也明白这一点，他们依靠15亿人口过着舒适的生活。只有当我们不再看到印度人民生活在脏水和纸箱中时，我们才能谈论经济和发展。
 
@Perceptionista
@maxwolf8055  There was that report from the Economic Times a few years ago which said that the richest top 10% Indians owned half the assets of the country.
 
@maxwolf8055 几年前《经济时报》有篇报道说，印度最富有的前10%的人拥有全国一半的资产。
 
@maxwolf8055
@Perceptionista  I believe that it's no longer 10% of the population owning 50% of the national wealth, but rather 2%-3%. A lot has changed in the last couple of years. I think that if the Indian stock market crashes and the housing bubble bursts, the wealthy will become even richer by taking advantage of others.
 
@Perceptionista 我认为，现在已经不再是10%的人拥有50%的国家财富了，而是2%-3%的人拥有50%的国家财富。过去几年发生了很多变化。我认为如果印度的股市崩盘，房地产泡沫破灭，富人将通过利用他人变得更加富有。
 
@Perceptionista
@maxwolf8055  Thank you for the info. That means the inequality gap has gone even worse. It's really funny how Modi and the BJP want to really copy/parrot the US model  including what happened with assets bubbles and the crashes with such neoliberal policies. This on a country with huge social and economic, income equality is going to lead to massive political instability.
 
@maxwolf8055 谢谢你的信息。这意味着不平等差距更加严重了。莫迪和印度人民党想真正复制/模仿美国的模式，包括资产泡沫和新自由主义政策导致的崩溃，这真的很有趣。这在一个社会、经济、收入都非常平等的国家将会导致大规模的政治不稳定。