印度的经济增长真的这么高吗？（1）

 
@yaoliang1580
Since last year, Russia has stopped accepting Indian rupees for their oil and demanded India to pay in Chinese yuan as there's little use for those excess rupees
 
自去年以来，俄罗斯已经停止接受印度卢比购买石油并要求印度用人民币支付，因为多余的卢比没有什么用处。
 
@ShikharRawat-ft6yd
No they don't they recently bought weapon in indian rupees india bought oil from uae in rupees a new deal has been done with Nigeria for rupee trade France is accepting upi meanwhile Saudi has stopped yuan trade and brics refused idea of yuan as trade currency
 
不，他们没有。他们最近用印度卢比购买了武器，印度用卢比从阿联酋购买了石油，与尼日利亚达成了一项新的卢比贸易协议，法国正在接受UPI。与此同时，沙特停止了人民币贸易，金砖国家拒绝了将人民币作为贸易货币的想法。
 
@andrewlim7751
The Russians are stacked with billions of rupees, and the Indians refused to convert to rmb for them, so they have no choice but to buy some Russian weapons but made in India.
 
俄罗斯人手里有几十亿卢比，而印度人拒绝为他们兑换成人民币，所以他们别无选择，只能购买一些印度制造的俄罗斯武器。
 
@ShikharRawat-ft6yd
@andrewlim7751  lol they also invested in Indian economy those rupees on the other hand Saudi stopped selling oil to China in yuan and even BRICS went to brics currency rather than yuan yu need to have accumulation of currency first to make it more desiring lol.
 
哈哈，他们还用卢比投资了印度经济。另一方面，沙特停止用人民币向中国出售石油，甚至金砖国家也开始使用金砖国家货币而不是人民币，因此你需要先积累货币实力，才能使其更有吸引力，哈哈。
 
@agamliandy7843
@ShikharRawat-ft6yd  
You should try to travel the world and broaden your horizon instead of being a frog in the well thinking that you're so great.
Generall Indian businessman don't really have good reputation in global arena, especially here in SE Asia.
 
你应该尝试周游世界，开阔视野，而不是做自以为了不起烦人井底之蛙。
一般来说，印度商人在国际上的名声并不好，尤其是在东南亚。
 
@maxwolf8055
@ShikharRawat-ft6yd  It's not just the consumption growth numbers that matter, but the starting point of this growth and how it is calculated. For example, if a country in Africa produces one tractor, it seems like a 100% increase in industrial production, and if they make ten tractors in a year, the growth appears to be 1000%. India faces a similar situation with the effect of a low base. However, I suspect there is extensive manipulation of the numbers, where government agencies have changed their calculation methods and ignored food inflation. Additionally, there is a massive bubble in the real estate sector, which shows the highest growth, driven by speculative buying. This pyramid will collapse soon, just like in China. Manufacturing in India is not growing and will not grow, while exports from China continue to increase. As an economist, it's clear to me even without thoroughly analyzing the fabricated numbers that serve the interests of the government and the stock market. Prepare for the worst.
 
@ShikharRawat-ft6yd 重要的不仅仅是消费增长的数字，还有增长的起点和计算方式。举例来说，如果一个非洲国家生产一台拖拉机，那么它的工业产量似乎增长了100%，而如果他们在一年内生产了10台拖拉机，那么增长看起来就是1000%。印度也面临着类似的情况，因为它的基数较低。不过，我怀疑这些数字存在广泛的操纵，印度的政府机构改变了计算方法，忽略了食品通胀。此外，在投机性购买的推动下，印度的房地产行业出现了巨大的泡沫，该行业的增长幅度最高。就像中国一样，这个金字塔很快就会倒塌。印度的制造业没有增长，也不会增长，而中国的出口还在继续增加。作为一名经济学家，即使不深入分析那些为政府和股市利益服务的捏造数字，我也能清楚地看到这一点。我们需要做好最坏的打算。
 
@Michael-vw8vp
India is a failed state
Despite having the most populous population in the world, India does not create any jobs for the millions of young job seekers who enter the workforce every year.
The South Asian country's working-age population stands at more than 900 million, according to 2021 data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). According to the Indian government, this number is expected to reach more than 1 billion over the next decade.
Everything becomes a burden if policy makers do not create enough jobs. Data shows that more and more Indians are not even looking for work, given the lack of opportunities and low wages.
India's labor force participation rate, an estimate of the active workforce and people looking for work, stands at 46%, among the lowest in the world, according to 2021 data from the World Bank. For comparison, China and the United States (US) reached 68% and 61% respectively in the same year.
For women, the numbers are even more concerning. India's female labor participation rate of just 19% in 2021 was the lowest in the world, down from about 26% in 2005, according to World Bank data.
"India is sitting on a time bomb. There will be social unrest if it cannot create enough jobs in a relatively short time," said professor of organizational behavior at the Indian School of Business, Chandrasekhar Sripada, to CNN International, reported on Wednesday (18/1 /2023).
The Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) noted that India's unemployment in December stood at 8.3%. This is far compared to countries like the US which recorded unemployment at 3.5%.
Lack of high-quality education is one of the biggest reasons behind India's unemployment crisis. This is because Indian institutions emphasize 'rote learning' over 'creative thinking'.
As a result of a combination of poor education and a lack of jobs, thousands of Indian college graduates, including those with doctorates, end up applying for menial jobs such as office boy, which pay less than US$ 300 (Rp. 4.5 million) per month.
According to recent Indian government data, more than 90% of India's workforce is employed in the agricultural and informal sectors.
 
印度是一个失败的国家。
尽管印度拥有世界上最多的人口，但却没有为每年数百万进入劳动力市场的年轻求职者创造任何就业机会。
根据经济合作与发展组织（OECD）2021年的数据，这个南亚国家的劳动适龄人口超过9亿。据印度政府预计，未来十年这一数字将超过10亿。
如果决策者无法创造足够的就业机会，一切都将成为负担。数据显示，由于机会少、工资低，越来越多的印度人甚至不找工作。
根据世界银行2021年的数据，印度的劳动力参与率（对活跃劳动力和求职者的估计）为46%，是世界上最低的国家之一。相比之下，中国和美国同年的劳动参与率分别为68%和61%。
对于女性来说，这些数字更加令人担忧。根据世界银行的数据，2021年印度女性的劳动参与率仅为19%，是世界上最低的，低于2005年的约26%。
"印度正坐在一颗定时炸弹上”。印度商学院组织行为学教授钱德拉塞卡-斯里帕达（Chandrasekhar Sripada）周三（18/1 /2023）对美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）国际频道（CNN International）表示："印度正坐在一颗定时炸弹上，如果不能在较短时间内创造足够的就业机会，就会引发社会动荡。
印度经济监测中心（CMIE）指出，印度12月份的失业率为8.3%，这与美国等失业率仅为3.5%的国家相比相差甚远。
缺乏高质量的教育是印度失业危机背后的最大原因之一，这是因为印度的教育机构强调 “死记硬背”而非“创造性思维”。
由于教育水平低和缺乏就业机会，成千上万的印度大学毕业生，包括拥有博士学位的毕业生，最终只能申请办公室勤杂工等月薪不到300美元（450万印尼盾）的琐碎的工作。
根据印度政府最近的数据，印度90%以上的劳动力在农业和非正规部门就业。
 
@Perceptionista
@TepurangaHeremaia-ce4qe  Where do you hear such a thing? You got such news from Australian-New Zealand media (judging from your username)? China has ZERO intention  on having the Yuan become the world's reserve, let alone being the BRICS currency. And contrary to what that Modi bot you are talking to says, if the Yuan becomes a global reserve currency, it causes an appreciation of the currency and also makes it harder for that country to export goods and easier to import it. So overtime the country loses manufacturing prowess. China doesn't want that at all.
 
@TepurangaHeremaia-ce4qe 你从哪里听来的？你是从澳大利亚-新西兰媒体（从你的用户名来看）那里得到的消息吗？中国无意让人民币成为世界储备货币，更不用说成为金砖国家的货币了。与你正在与之交谈的莫迪的机器人的说法相反，如果人民币成为全球储备货币，就会导致货币升值，这会使中国出口商品更加困难，进口商品更加容易。因此，随着时间的推移，这个国家就会失去制造能力。中国根本不想这样。
 
@keith6371
The fact India is having a major water crisis, a basic life essential, in its biggest tech hub tells me everything I need to know about India.  Hopeless
 
在印度最大的科技中心，基本的生活必需品--水却出现了严重的危机，这让我对印度有了更多的了解。绝望。
 
@thecomment9489
LOL. And residents of that so-called tech hub think like they are living in some first world first class city.
 
笑死我了。而那个所谓的科技中心的居民却认为自己生活在某个世界一流城市。
 
@keungpang2176
The data show, India economy is growing, but at India rate.
The Indian and western media always compared it's rate of growth with China. Which is  laughable.
 
数据显示，印度的经济正在增长，但增长速度是印度式的。
印度和西方的媒体总是把印度的经济的增长率与中国相提并论，这太可笑了。
 
@user-ed9so2rb4k
India needs a societal revolution. Dividing the nation by social classes needs a revolution not just lip services that the bottom 40% are given a fair and equal opportunity and this only come about through a revolution!
 
印度需要一场社会革命。按社会阶层划分的国家需要一场革命，而不仅仅是口头上说给底层40%的人公平和平等的机会，这只有通过革命才能实现！
 
@beproudasian8279
Exactly. Feudalism never left India. Short of a cultural and social revolution, India will be more or less the same in the future.
 
没错。封建主义从未离开印度。如果不进行一场文化和社会方面的革命，印度在未来或多或少不会有什么变化。
 
@manofsan
This is a narrative peddled by colonizers who themselves practiced divide-and-rule. How do you think such a small number of British ruled over such a large number of Indians? By promoting their english word "caste". Brits did the same thing while ruling Ireland nearby - they emphasized the "clans" to promote a narrative suitable to divide-and-rule over them. Indians certainly did have a feudal past -- but so did everybody else in the world. What happened is that after the British left, India was taken over by socialists, and socialism also likewise practices divide-and-rule through class warfare. Modi is the first prime minister from a so-called "low caste" (ie. a poor socio-economic background) That's why the Left hate him so -- because he really does represent the poor, while the Left are actually a bunch of elites who don't.
 
这是那些实行分而治之的殖民者兜售的说法。你认为人数如此少的英国人是如何统治如此多的印度人的？通过宣传他们的英语单词“种姓”。英国人在统治附近的爱尔兰时也做了同样的事情--他们强调“氏族”以宣传一种适合对他们进行分而治之的叙事。印度人确实有过封建的历史，但世界上其他人也一样。英国人离开后，印度被社会主义者接管，而社会主义也同样通过阶级斗争实行分而治之。莫迪是第一位来自所谓“低种姓”（即社会经济背景较差）的总理，这也是左派如此憎恨他的原因--因为他确实代表了穷人，而左派实际上是一群不代表穷人的精英。
 
@varoonshekhar4023
@manofsan  Well said. There is actually no such thing as the 'caste system', certainly nothing overarching and monolithic. There are inherited attitudes and behaviour which could be described as feudal, for lack of a better word. They get transmitted across generations and regions. India is dealing with it by development, education and the self assertion of those people in the so called lower strata.
 
@manofsan 说得好。实际上印度并不存在“种姓制度”，当然也不存在什么包罗万象、一成不变的制度。印度确实存在着一些可以称之为封建主义的继承下来的观念和行为，因为找不到更好的词来形容。这些观念和行为会在不同的地区世代相传。印度正在通过发展、教育和所谓的底层人民的自我主张来解决这个问题。
 
@lamrof
China's 5.2% growth in the first quarter of 2024 is $884,000,000  which is 1/3 of of the entire Indian economy.  How the heck is India going to ever catch and surpass the economy of China?
 
中国2024年第一季度的经济增长率为5.2% ，一共增长了8840亿美元，相当于整个印度经济的1/3。印度怎么可能赶上并超过中国的经济呢？
 
@clipwat1511
According to economists China is still poor and far from its full capacity. They say that China is at 20% at best, so there are still immense potential for growth. India has potential, but i think india should learn to walk first before she runs.
 
据经济学家称，中国仍然很穷，它远未实现其全部潜力。他们说中国最多只发挥了20%的潜力，因此仍有巨大的增长空间。虽然印度也有潜力，但我认为印度应该先学会走路，然后再跑。
 
@rattabo50
I don’t have a single item in my house, car, or at work that is Made in India. What exactly does India produce for the world? I wish the best for India and the Indian ppl but the nation has a long way to go. Kind of sad for such an ancient and important historical civilization. Get it together India. Demand more from your government and elites!
 
我家里、车上或工作场所没有一件物品是印度制造的，印度到底为世界生产了什么？虽然我希望印度和印度人民一切顺利，但这个国家还有很长的路要走。对于这样一个古老而重要的历史文明来说，这有点可悲。印度要振作起来，对你们的政府和精英提出更高的要求！
 
@amulia1
I think the biggest issue with india is its lack of talent. I went to school with many Chinese and India international students, all of them are very bright. I would say a good majority of the Chinese international students ends up going back to China, even if it means taking a paycut, because there are still more opportunity in China for entrepreneurship than the US. On the other hand, I haven't met any Indian international student that choose to go back to India after graduation. This is something that's very strange to me. Indian has a greater population than China now, wouldn't these students want to go back? The opportunity could be endless. I would be very interested if any Indian want to comment on the reason. Also on the matter of Caste system and corruption.
 
我认为印度最大的问题是缺乏人才。我和许多中国和印度留学生一起上过学，他们都非常聪明。我想说的是绝大多数中国留学生最后都回到了中国，即使这意味着要减薪，因为中国的创业机会仍然比美国多。另一方面，我还没见过哪个印度留学生毕业后选择回印度的，这让我感到非常奇怪。印度现在的人口比中国多，难道这些学生不想回去吗？印度的机会可能是无穷无尽的。如果有任何印度人想谈谈其中的原因，我会非常感兴趣。另外，印度还有关于种姓制度和腐败的问题。
 
Political economists Radhika Desai and Michael Hudson are joined by Professor C.P. Chandrasekhar to discuss what is really happening in India's economy, if its government growth statistics and other official data are accurate, the policies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party BJP, and the country's 2024 elections.
 
政治经济学家拉迪卡-德赛（Radhika Desai）和迈克尔-哈德森（Michael Hudson）与钱德拉塞卡教授（C.P. Chandrasekhar）一起讨论印度经济的真实情况、印度政府的经济增长统计数据和其他官方数据是否准确、总理纳伦德拉-莫迪（Narendra Modi）及其政党印度人民党（BJP）的政策以及该国2024年的大选。
 
@Tylerredn
Some say it’s growing rapidly, while others believe the numbers are exaggerated. What’s the real deal, and how should this impact our investment portfolios?
 
有人说这一数字正在迅速增长，也有人认为这一数字被夸大了。真实情况是什么，这对我们的投资组合有什么影响？
 
@har0ld551-hn6fm
India’s growth figures do seem impressive on the surface, but there are concerns about the accuracy of the data. Factors like inflation, job creation, and the informal sector are often underreported. I’d be cautious about investing heavily in Indian markets right now.
 
印度的经济增长数字表面上看起来确实令人印象深刻，但人们对数据的准确性表示担忧。印度的通货膨胀、创造就业和非正规部门等因素往往被低估，我对现在大量投资印度市场持谨慎态度。
 
@danielhutchinson6604
India refines Russian Crude and sells it on open markets.
The owners of Chevron,  Exxon,  or BP Stock,
seem to be forced to honor contracts made in desperate times.
As the G-7 Nations are faced with Asian Producers who can now bargain from a position of strength,
as Members of a Trade unx,
inflation figures increase.
Profits that were easy to obtain,
seem to be now requiring some effort to produce.
This is not a pleasant status for any Capitalist.
Romans were probably faced with similar emotions.
 
印度提炼俄罗斯原油并在公开市场上销售。
雪佛龙、埃克森或英国石油公司股票的所有者似乎不得不履行在绝望时期签订的合同。
七国集团面临着亚洲生产商的挑战，这些生产商现在可以作为工会成员从强势地位进行谈判。
原本很容易获得的利润，现在似乎需要付出一些努力才能获得。
对于任何资本家来说，这都不是一个令人愉快的状态。
罗马人可能也面临着类似的情绪。
 
@anneli1735
Might be that you do have some products partly made in India but reassembled in your country, making you believe you bought a local product  Depending on your location/country Indian products are not being sold there, might be because of “too cheap” and therefore “spoiling” the protected market for selling highly priced products made in Western (NATO) countries ️ That’s the situation in Europe for example for some products but yes textile products made in India are widely available. Contrary in Mexico they are selling all kind of stuff made in India (especially on local markets): textile products (especially made of cotton), smaller motorcycles (the non luxury type Mexican people can afford) often sold by Mexican companies using Mexican names but produced in India (Bajaj, Tata, for example) and other products. These motorcycles and cars are not even available in some countries in Europe for example.
 
可能有些产品部分在印度制造，但在贵国重新组装，这让你相信你买到的是本地的产品。根据你所在的位置/国家，印度产品没有在那里销售可能是因为“太便宜”，因此“破坏”了销售西方（北约）国家制造的高价产品的受保护市场。与此相反，在墨西哥，他们正在销售印度制造的各种产品（尤其是在当地市场上）：比如纺织品（尤其是棉制品）、小型摩托车（墨西哥人买得起的非豪华型摩托车），这些产品通常由墨西哥公司销售，使用墨西哥名称，但在印度生产（例如Bajaj、Tata），还有其他产品。这些摩托车和汽车甚至在欧洲一些国家都买不到。
 
@varoonshekhar4023
@anneli1735  India is involved in niche manufacturing. Mass manufacturing for the globe( they have always exported a quantum of products to other developing countries, even in the 60s and 70s)  is a work in progress.
 
@anneli1735 印度涉足的是细分制造业。面向全球的大规模制造（即使在上世纪六七十年代，他们也一直向其他发展中国家出口大量产品）仍在进行中。
 
@corbynite2004
India has so many opportunities to become a powerhouse but the ruling class just cannot bring itself to escape neoliberal - even colonial - thinking. Unfortunately India seems destined to remain enmeshed in the psychodramas imposed upon it by the Indian political economic elites, including needlessly negative relations with China and Pakistan.
 
印度有很多机会成为强国，但其统治阶级就是无法摆脱新自由主义甚至殖民主义思维。不幸的是，印度似乎注定要陷入印度政治经济精英强加给它的心理剧中，包括与中国和巴基斯坦不必要的负面关系。