Poland is nearly as rich as the UK. How has it caught up so fast?
-When it comes to investment, particularly in its regions, perhaps Britain is the country that needs to keep up

波兰现在几乎和英国一样富有了。它是怎么这么快就赶上来的?
——谈到投资,尤其是在首都圈之外的地区,也许英国才是需要跟上来的国家



新闻:
In 2015 Nigel Farage admitted a preference for migrants from “India and Australia” over those from “countries that haven’t fully recovered from being behind the Iron Curtain”. It is not a view shared today: the British are more welcoming of Polish immigrants than almost any other nationality. According to YouGov, more of us today think they make a positive impact (53 per cent) on life here than we do of Indians (35 per cent), Germans (50 per cent) and Americans (40 per cent).

2015年,奈杰尔·法拉奇承认,比起那些“尚未完全从铁幕后恢复过来的国家”,英国更青睐来自“印度和澳大利亚”的移民。这种观点在今天并不被认同:英国人比几乎任何其他国籍的人都更欢迎波兰移民。舆观调查公司的数据显示,如今认为他们对英国生活产生积极影响的人(53%)比认为印度人(35%)、德国人(50%)和美国人(40%)的人都要多。

Yet Poles are becoming increasingly scarce. At the time of the Brexit vote in 2016 a million were living in Britain, lured under free movement by substantially higher UK wages. By 2021 a third had left.

然而,波兰人正变得越来越少。2016年英国脱欧公投时,有100万生活在英国,他们被英国高得多的工资所吸引,自由流动。到2021年,三分之一的人离开了。

For most young Polish people, staying put has become a much more attractive offer — something not lost on Kemi Badenoch. “We are competing with economic success stories like Poland,” she told the Tory conference last week. “Fifteen years ago Polish workers came here to find opportunity. Now Poland is growing twice as fast as we are.”

对大多数波兰年轻人来说,呆在国内变得更有吸引力——卡米·巴德诺克也注意到了这一点。“我们正在与波兰这样的经济成功故事竞争,”她上周在保守党会议上表示。“15年前,波兰工人来到这里寻找机会。今天波兰的增长速度是我们的两倍。”

Twice does not quite cover it. In 1995 Poland’s GDP per capita was $13,600 in today’s money — about 36 per cent of Britain’s and roughly the same as Brazil’s. Today Poland’s figure is $44,500, or 81 per cent of ours. It may soon pull level. Since the end of 2019 Britain’s GDP per capita has grown by less than 1 per cent in real US dollars. Poland’s has grown almost 18 per cent, nearly twice as much as that of the US.

两倍还不够。1995年,波兰的人均GDP为13600美元(按今天的货币计算),约为英国的36%,与巴西大致相当。今天波兰的数字是44500美元,占我们的81%。它可能很快就会拉平。自2019年底以来,按实际美元计算,英国人均GDP增长不到1%。波兰的GDP增长了近18%,几乎是美国的两倍。

How has Poland done it? Since the fall of Communism, it has looked westwards: instead of selling off state-owned assets to a small number of rich individuals, Poland held public offerings and encouraged foreign ownership. More recently it has enjoyed the sweet spot of being in the EU but maintaining its own currency.

波兰是如何做到的呢?自东欧剧变以来,波兰将目光投向西方:波兰没有将国有资产出售给少数富人,而是公开发行股票,鼓励外资持有。最近,它享受着加入欧盟但保持自己货币的甜蜜时刻。

The brain drain of young talent to countries like Britain and Germany was a problem throughout the 2010s but several factors have turned things around. Since 2019 Poland has had a lower income tax for workers under 26; a recent study found it to be the third-best European country for young adults to live in. Manufacturing, led by car production, remains important, but its tech sector is thriving, with many workers who have returned from abroad. Wages, adjusted for prices, are now neck and neck with those in Italy.

在整个2010年代,年轻人才外流到英国和德国等国家是一个问题,但几个因素已经扭转了局面。自2019年以来,波兰对26岁以下工人的所得税较低;最近的一项研究发现,它是欧洲第三大最适合年轻人生活的国家。以汽车生产为首的制造业仍然很重要,但它的科技行业正在蓬勃发展,许多工人从国外回国。经物价调整后的工资现在与意大利并驾齐驱。

And while it will take Britain a decade to raise defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP, Poland did it almost overnight: this year it is expected to spend the equivalent of 4.5 per cent of its economy on its military, up from 2.2 per cent in 2022. It has been funded by borrowing, which until recently was modest: debt has hovered around 50 per cent, compared with 96 per cent or more in Britain, America and elsewhere.

尽管英国需要10年时间才能将国防开支提高到GDP的3.5%,但波兰几乎是在一夜之间做到了这一点:预计今年波兰的军事开支将相当于其经济的4.5%,高于2022年的2.2%。它的资金来自借款(直到最近还很温和):债务一直徘徊在50%左右,而英国、美国和其他地方的债务比例为96%或更高。

So the Polish economy is growing fast. Isn’t that what we would expect? Economists often talk about “catch-up growth” — the theory that poorer countries grow faster. They have lots of easy ways to boost productivity, like buying better equipment and investing in better training for staff. Richer countries like Britain have (supposedly) done all of that stuff already. The only way we can boost our economy, the catch-up theory goes, is by new technological discoveries.

所以波兰经济增长很快。这不正是我们所期望的吗?经济学家经常谈论“追赶增长”,即较贫穷国家增长更快的理论。他们有很多简单的方法来提高生产力,比如购买更好的设备,投资更好的员工培训。像英国这样的富裕国家(据说)已经完成了所有这些事情。追赶理论认为,我们提振经济的唯一途径是新技术的发现。

However, a closer look at the growth figures suggests Britain might have more to learn from Poland than we think.

然而,仔细研究一下增长数据就会发现,英国从波兰学习的东西可能比我们想象的要多。

Data from the EU tracks economic activity right down to the regional level. Strikingly, it reveals many parts of Britain have been overtaken by Poland’s more successful areas. The greater Warsaw region has a GDP of €67,000 per capita, adjusted for prices, which is bettered only by central London.

欧盟的数据追踪的是地区层面的经济活动。引人注目的是,它揭示了英国的许多地区已经被波兰更成功的地区所赶超。经物价因素调整后,大华沙地区的人均GDP为6.7万欧元,仅次于伦敦市中心。

Capital cities typically have strong economies. But 12 of Poland’s 17 regions are now richer than west Wales, the poorest part of Britain. Dolnoslaskie — or Lower Silesia — in Poland’s southwest is better off than Greater Manchester. In fact if we were to strip London out, Britain’s output per head would be just 3 per cent ahead of Poland’s.

首都圈城市通常拥有强劲的经济。但是波兰17个地区中有12个地区比英国最贫穷的西威尔士更富裕。波兰西南部的多尔诺斯拉斯基或下西里西亚比大曼彻斯特要好。事实上,如果把伦敦排除在外,英国的人均产出仅比波兰高3%。

Never mind catching up: in some ways Poland is already ahead. The country has faster mobile internet, cheaper electricity and more high-speed rail. Britain has been rich long enough to develop complex planning laws, notes David Lawrence of the Centre for British Progress think tank; developing countries like Poland just build because they see it as essential to prosperity.

别提追赶了:在某些方面波兰已经领先了。这个国家有更快的移动互联网,更便宜的电力和更多的高速铁路。英国进步中心智囊团的大卫·劳伦斯指出,英国已经富裕了足够长的时间来制定复杂的计划法律;像波兰这样的发展中国家只是建设,因为他们认为这是繁荣的必要条件。

Britain has been talking about a third runway at Heathrow for decades: the latest proposals will cost £49 billion be complete in 2040 (although I wouldn’t hold your breath). Poland expects to open a new central transport hub — with two runways and a high-speed rail lix, serving 45 million passengers a year — by the early 2030s for £30 billion. When it comes to investment, particularly in its regions, perhaps Britain is the country that needs to catch up.

英国几十年来一直在谈论希思罗机场的第三条跑道:最新的提议将耗资490亿英镑,于2040年完工(尽管我不抱期待)。波兰计划在21世纪30年代初斥资300亿英镑建成一个新的中央交通枢纽,包括两条跑道和一条高速铁路,每年服务4500万人次。谈到投资,尤其是在首都圈之外的地区,也许英国才是需要跟上来的国家。