In recent weeks, the secretive Chinese space program has reported some significant milestones in developing its program to land astronauts on the lunar surface by the year 2030.
On August 6, the China Manned Space Agency successfully tested a high-fidelity mockup of its 26-ton "Lanyue" lunar lander. The test, conducted outside of Beijing, used giant tethers to simulate lunar gravity as the vehicle fired main engines and fine control thrusters to land on a cratered surface and take off from there.
"The test," said the agency in an official statement, "represents a key step in the development of China's manned lunar exploration program, and also marks the first time that China has carried out a test of extraterrestrial landing and takeoff capabilities of a manned spacecraft."
As part of the statement, the space agency reconfirmed that it plans to land its astronauts on the Moon "before" 2030.
Thus, China's space program is making demonstrable progress in all three of the major elements of its lunar program: the large rocket to launch a crew spacecraft, which will carry humans to lunar orbit, plus the lander that will take astronauts down to the surface and back. This work suggests that China is on course to land on the Moon before the end of this decade.
For the United States and its allies in space, there are reasons to be dismissive of this. For one, NASA landed humans on the Moon nearly six decades ago with the Apollo Program. Been there, done that.

近几周来,中国神秘的航天计划在实现“2030年前让宇航员登月”的目标上取得了几项重要进展。
8月6日,中国载人航天工程办公室成功测试了其重达26吨的“揽月”载人登月器的高保真模型。此次测试在北京郊外进行,利用巨型缆索模拟月球重力,期间飞行器点燃主发动机和姿态控制推进器,在布满陨坑的地面上完成了着陆与起飞过程。
航天部门在官方声明中表示:“这次测试是中国载人月球探测工程发展的关键一步,同时也是中国首次进行载人航天器在外星天体上的着陆与起飞能力试验。”
在同一份声明中,中国载人航天工程办公室再次确认,计划在“2030年前”实现载人登月。
随后在上周五,中国载人航天工程办公室与其国家火箭制造机构——中国运载火箭技术研究院,成功进行了长征十号火箭的30秒地面试车。该芯级装配了七台使用煤油和液氧燃料的YF-100K发动机。火箭的主型将由三个这样的芯级并联组成,可将约70吨的载荷送入近地轨道。
因此,中国的航天计划正在其登月工程的三个核心环节上稳步推进:用于发射载人飞船的大型运载火箭、能将宇航员送至月球轨道的飞船,以及负责登月和返回的着陆器。这些成果表明,中国有望在本十年结束前成功实现登月。
对于美国及其在太空领域的盟国来说,仍有理由对此持保留态度。毕竟,美国国家航空航天局(NASA)早在近六十年前的阿波罗计划中就已实现了载人登月——“我们早就去过了”。