中国似乎有可能击败美国重返月球
After recent tests, China appears likely to beat the United States back to the Moon
译文简介
近几周来,中国神秘的航天计划在实现“2030年前让宇航员登月”的目标上取得了几项重要进展。
正文翻译

In recent weeks, the secretive Chinese space program has reported some significant milestones in developing its program to land astronauts on the lunar surface by the year 2030.
On August 6, the China Manned Space Agency successfully tested a high-fidelity mockup of its 26-ton "Lanyue" lunar lander. The test, conducted outside of Beijing, used giant tethers to simulate lunar gravity as the vehicle fired main engines and fine control thrusters to land on a cratered surface and take off from there.
"The test," said the agency in an official statement, "represents a key step in the development of China's manned lunar exploration program, and also marks the first time that China has carried out a test of extraterrestrial landing and takeoff capabilities of a manned spacecraft."
As part of the statement, the space agency reconfirmed that it plans to land its astronauts on the Moon "before" 2030.
Thus, China's space program is making demonstrable progress in all three of the major elements of its lunar program: the large rocket to launch a crew spacecraft, which will carry humans to lunar orbit, plus the lander that will take astronauts down to the surface and back. This work suggests that China is on course to land on the Moon before the end of this decade.
For the United States and its allies in space, there are reasons to be dismissive of this. For one, NASA landed humans on the Moon nearly six decades ago with the Apollo Program. Been there, done that.
近几周来,中国神秘的航天计划在实现“2030年前让宇航员登月”的目标上取得了几项重要进展。
8月6日,中国载人航天工程办公室成功测试了其重达26吨的“揽月”载人登月器的高保真模型。此次测试在北京郊外进行,利用巨型缆索模拟月球重力,期间飞行器点燃主发动机和姿态控制推进器,在布满陨坑的地面上完成了着陆与起飞过程。
航天部门在官方声明中表示:“这次测试是中国载人月球探测工程发展的关键一步,同时也是中国首次进行载人航天器在外星天体上的着陆与起飞能力试验。”
在同一份声明中,中国载人航天工程办公室再次确认,计划在“2030年前”实现载人登月。
随后在上周五,中国载人航天工程办公室与其国家火箭制造机构——中国运载火箭技术研究院,成功进行了长征十号火箭的30秒地面试车。该芯级装配了七台使用煤油和液氧燃料的YF-100K发动机。火箭的主型将由三个这样的芯级并联组成,可将约70吨的载荷送入近地轨道。
因此,中国的航天计划正在其登月工程的三个核心环节上稳步推进:用于发射载人飞船的大型运载火箭、能将宇航员送至月球轨道的飞船,以及负责登月和返回的着陆器。这些成果表明,中国有望在本十年结束前成功实现登月。
对于美国及其在太空领域的盟国来说,仍有理由对此持保留态度。毕竟,美国国家航空航天局(NASA)早在近六十年前的阿波罗计划中就已实现了载人登月——“我们早就去过了”。
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Started watching For All Mankind recently, interesting how the current situation feels like the initial "Race for the Base" stage, especially with the interest around Shackleton Crater.
Regardless, unless a US lander exits the CGI mockup phase and the launch system gets developed then the first manned revisit will be Chinese. No way around it at this point.
最近开始看《为了全人类》,很有意思,现在的现实局势就像剧中最初的“基地竞赛”阶段,尤其是对沙克尔顿环形山的关注这点。不过话说回来,除非美国的登月舱能真正走出CGI效果图阶段、发射系统也能如期开发,否则第一次载人重返月球的一定会是中国——这点现在已经毫无悬念了。
Turned
Started watching Dr. Strangelove and the parts that would have been funny to the audience at the time are just real life right now. The antagonist goes on a rant about fluoride in the drinking water or American soldiers being told the other American soldiers are commies in disguise. Twilight zone shit.
我最近开始看《奇爱博士》,当年观众觉得可笑的那些情节现在全都成了现实。片中的反派抱怨饮用水被加了氟,或者美国士兵被告知其他美国士兵是伪装成自己人的***员。真是“阴阳魔界”式的怪异现实。(***政党或名字 上下同)
mfb-
Prototypes of the US lander have flown to space 8 times. The capsule that will get astronauts to Moon orbit and back has flown around the Moon, and is scheduled to fly crew in early 2026.
Meanwhile China is doing static fire tests of stages.
If (!) the US stays committed to getting it done, it's an open race.
美国的登月舱原型已经进行了八次太空试飞。负责把宇航员送到月球轨道再带回来的飞船也已绕月飞行,并计划在2026年初执行载人任务。与此同时,中国目前还在做火箭分级的静态点火测试。
如果(前提是)美国能保持投入并坚持下去,那么这场竞赛依然没有结束。
Kolfinna
My friend at NASA said all their teams are being laid off and they're looking for new jobs. Don't count on it
我在NASA的朋友说,他们整个团队都在被裁撤,大家都在找新工作。别太指望了。
fricy81
China is investing in the long term, while the US is occupied with preserving the corrupt Pork spending, and cutting everything progressive for some misguided nostalgia fueled nonsense.
The writing is on the wall.
中国是在为长期目标投资,而美国却忙着维持那种腐败的“猪肉支出”(浪费性的预算分配),削减一切具有进步意义的项目,只为迎合某种怀旧情结的胡闹。
结局已经写在墙上了。
ArtOfWarfare
There are opinions it’s doomed for exactly opposite reasons - you say the US isn’t cutting enough pork while others say the US is cutting too much.
I’m not weighing in either way - just pointing out the fact that I suspect some people actually manage to irrationally hold both beliefs simultaneously (I know, both can be true with sufficient qualifiers attached.)
也有人认为情况正好相反——你说美国削减预算削减得不够多,而另一些人说美国削减得太多。
我不打算表态,只是指出一个事实:我怀疑真的有人能同时持有这两种完全对立的观点(当然,如果加上足够多的限定条件,两种说法也“可以同时成立”)。
Samsquanch-Sr
It's always this. Short term thinking vs long term thinking.
总是这样:短期思维 vs 长期思维。
d4561wedg
America may be further ahead on developing the rocket and the lander.
But China has been showing off some impressive technology for things like resource utilization and lunar construction.
Unless I’ve missed something America’s plan seems to be getting to the moon just to say that they can. Meanwhile China’s plans are for actual permanent habitation.
Why should China be worried about getting there first now when America already did it decades ago? They can afford to take their time and do it right.
美国或许在火箭和登月舱的研发上领先一步,
但中国在资源利用和月球建筑等方面展示了非常先进的技术。
如果我没记错的话,美国的计划似乎只是为了“能上月球”而已;
而中国的目标则是“在那里建立永久居住点”。
既然美国几十年前已经登过月,中国又何必急着抢第一?他们完全可以慢工出细活,做得更扎实。
Hustler-1
I really wish the Soviets would have beaten us to the Moon. We'd have been on Mars since the 80s.
真希望当年是苏联先登上月球,那样我们现在早就在80年代就去火星了。
Blothorn
The massive expenditure to reach the moon by the end of the decade was controversial, despite the economy being relatively healthy. Losing the race to the moon would probably have emboldened the critics of such high spending, and even if the government announced the intention of beating the Soviet unx to Mars rather than shifting to more affordable priorities (like the Soviet unx historically did with the shift to space stations) I have no doubt that the program would have been cut back as stagflation forced hard choices in the 70s.
为了在十年内登月而投入巨额预算在当时就是一个备受争议的举动——那时美国经济状况其实还不错。
如果当年输掉登月竞赛,可能反而会让反对高支出的人更有底气。
即便政府随后宣布要在登月失败后“超越苏联去火星”,我也毫不怀疑,随着70年代滞胀压力增加,这样的计划还是会被削减。苏联当年转向空间站路线也是出于相同的成本考量。
TheOtherHobbes
Those are all science. They matter to people who care about science, but a lot of people don't.
The Moon Landing was - above all - a great cultural achievement that made everyone (well, almost everyone) in the West, and especially the US, feel part of something huge. And practically it was a huge job creation and R&D program that used some of the best skills and capabilities around at the time.
The US since then has devolved into an extractive economy where there's no sense of mutual participation and contribution.
那些都是科学——对关心科学的人来说很重要,但很多人其实并不在乎。
登月最大的意义在于文化层面——它让整个西方(尤其是美国)的人们觉得自己参与了人类历史上伟大的事业。
从实际层面看,那也是一场大规模的就业与研发项目,汇集了当时最优秀的人才与技术能力。
而如今的美国,已经蜕变为一个以掠夺为核心的经济体,再也没有那种“共同参与与贡献”的精神了。
d4561wedg
Makes sense that it would be controversial.
The Soviets had already beaten the US to every milestone in space before that.
I could certainly see people getting fed up with the increasingly expensive moving of the goalposts.
确实,那种争议是可以理解的。
毕竟在那之前,苏联几乎在所有太空领域的里程碑上都领先美国。
人们对这种不断“移动终点线”的烧钱比赛产生厌倦也不奇怪。
bubliksmaz
I think by the time Apollo Applications Program had it's budget cut down in 1967 it would have been evident that the Soviets weren't beating them to the moon. During the Gemini program they'd developed all the key capabilities like orbital rendezvous, docking, and spacewalking techniques, and they had their heavy-lift vehicle. The Soviets hadn't demonstrated any of this.
我认为到了1967年“阿波罗计划”被削减预算时,美国人已经很清楚苏联赶不上登月了。
在“双子星”计划期间,美国已经掌握了轨道交会、对接、太空行走等关键技术,还拥有重型运载火箭。
而苏联那边,这些技术都还没有实质性展示。
aronenark
Any manned flight to Mars in the 70s or 80s had a high chance of ending in disaster for the crew. Even if the Soviets had beaten the US to the moon, I think the race still would have ended there. Both sides knew a manned flight to another planet would not be technically feasible for decades.
如果在70年代或80年代进行载人火星任务,那几乎注定是灾难。
即便苏联当年先登月,这场“太空竞赛”也很可能止步于此。
因为双方都知道,载人飞往其他行星在技术上还要几十年才能实现。
FlyingBishop
NASA unfortunately has nothing to do with it. Starship's failures have been more successful than people give them credit for. If this were just a sports match where the goal is to land people on the moon, China might have an edge. But doing an Apollo-style mission will not get a meaningful Lunar base. It's not even a useful step on the path to getting a lunar base. If your lander can't transport 100 tons to the surface of the moon it's not going to support a base. If your lander isn't fully reusable with a fully reusable system for getting people from Earth to the Moon it's not going to support a real base.
NASA其实已经不是关键角色了。“星舰”的多次失败比人们以为的更具意义。
如果把登月当作一场体育比赛,中国或许在短期内占上风;但仅仅复刻阿波罗式任务并不能建立真正的月球基地。
如果登月舱无法运输100吨物资上月球,就无法支撑基地。
如果整套地月运输体系不能完全重复使用,那就不可能建成真正可持续的基地。
TuffGym
Dumbest headline ever, the U.S. landed on the moon some 56 years ago. And they did it SIX times.
史上最蠢的标题。美国在56年前就登上月球了,而且是六次。
ARocketToMars
And yet the US is struggling to get back because NASA has to stop work and restart programs every 4-8 years for political reasons.
但美国现在依然在为重返月球而挣扎,因为NASA的项目每隔4到8年就得被迫停工或重启一次——全是因为政治周期。
Archernar
Why is a revisit to the moon even worth a mention, quite frankly? I mean, the first visit as proof that it could be done is a milestone of some sorts, although the moon landing itself had little actual use to my knowledge.
Why is another moon landing now more interesting than "another nation developed their space program far enough to do it"? I don't quite get it.
说实话,我真不明白“重返月球”为什么值得一提。
第一次登月还算是“证明人类能做到”的里程碑,但登月本身几乎没什么实际用途。
如今再去一趟,又有何特别之处?难道只是因为“另一个国家的太空计划成熟到能做到这一点”就值得大书特书吗?我确实不太懂。
Prestigious
they deserve it. China invests into education like crazy. Dont get me wrong, I have my issues with the CCP but obxtively speaking they are advancing in almost all areas with serious speed. While the US is busy dealing with the itself and shooting itself in the foot the Chinese will lay claim to the moonbase and then to mars potentially.
他们(中国)值得——中国在教育上的投入疯狂得令人佩服。
我对中G也有自己的看法,但客观来说,他们几乎在所有领域都在飞速进步。
而美国却忙着自相残杀、自毁长城。
等他们回过神来,中国可能已经拿下月球基地,接着就是火星。
CaptPants
Not at all unexpected considering that China is most likely funding and supporting its space program as opposed to the gutting of NASA that the current government is doing.
这毫不意外。中国在全力资助和推动自己的航天计划,而美国政府却在不断削减NASA的预算。
borntoflail
Honestly, there's going to be a lot of these headlines across the sciences in the coming years.
老实说,未来几年这种新闻会在各个科学领域不断出现。
djdadi
go search on google scholar, it feels like 90% of the science is done by China now. I am honestly a little surprised it's even still in English
去Google学术搜搜看吧,感觉现在90%的科研成果都是中国做的。
老实说,我甚至有点惊讶——学术论文居然还主要是用英文写的。
Electro522
While true, English is so far more widespread and ingrained than either German or French. The only other language that even comes close to it is Spanish.
While it's obvious that China is taking the number 1 spot from the U.S. in pretty much every regard save for the military, it will still take a significant amount of time for Mandarin to overtake English, especially due to how complicated of a language it is.
That, and there is reason to believe that China may see some serious societal degradation in the coming years due to its aging population. Pretty much every 1st world country is facing a population crisis, but it's especially bad in China due to their 1 child policy they had for awhile. They are soon going to be facing the repercussions of it, and are simply gliding off of the U.S. throwing everything it had into the gutter.
虽然确实如此,但英语的全球普及度仍然远超德语或法语。唯一能接近它的也只有西班牙语。
显然,中国在除军事外几乎所有领域都在取代美国登顶第一,但要让中文取代英语仍需很长时间,毕竟那是一种极其复杂的语言。
此外,中国正面临严重的人口老龄化问题,这是“一孩政策”带来的长期后果。
其实所有发达国家都在经历人口危机,但中国尤其严重。
他们现在能保持高速发展的部分原因,是因为美国自己把一切优势拱手让出。
jabalong
Yes, nothing against China, but there is no way that Mandarin becomes a global lingua franca. It is way too hard to learn, particularly the writing system. Anyway, that ship has sailed. English is deeply rooted now as the world's second language. Having backpacked across two continents (Europe, Asia), I was struck by how I found English speakers even in the smallest, off the path places. A lot has been written about how English has reached this point, in terms of British imperialism and America's ascendancy, but also just from a linguistic point of view English has been particularly well suited to be adaptable. No matter what happens geopolitically, I would think that the global position of English is now well assured at least looking a century out from here.
我对中国没有什么偏见,但汉语不可能成为全球通用语。它太难学了,尤其是书写系统。而且,这艘船早就开走了——英语如今已经深深扎根,成为世界的第二语言。
我曾背包旅行穿越过两大洲(欧洲和亚洲),让我惊讶的是,即使在最偏僻的小地方,我也能遇到会说英语的人。
很多研究都解释了英语为何能达到如今的地位:英国的殖民扩张、美国的崛起,以及从语言学角度来说,英语的适应性极强。
无论未来的地缘政治如何变化,我认为英语作为全球语言的地位至少在未来一百年内都稳固无虞。
seethruyou
For now, that's true. Before long, that will change. China will report in their language and text, and the rest of the scientific community can translate it on their own time. It will become the de facto language of science, only accelerated by the US abandoning any reason to keep it in English.
现在确实如此,但不会太久。
未来中国会用自己的语言发表科研成果,其他科学界成员只能自己抽时间去翻译。
中文将成为事实上的科学语言,尤其是在美国放弃继续维护英语科研主导地位的情况下,这个过程只会加速。
Dabaer77
They churn out a bunch of junk research to pad their numbers. There is good science being done in China but it's largely drowned out by a bunch of spam.
他们大量生产垃圾研究来凑数量。
中国确实有一些真正高质量的科学研究,但往往被一堆灌水论文淹没了。
RobertABooey
I just watched a video the other day about how they've managed to get an EV battery charger to charge EV's to about 80% in the same amount of time (maybe just a minute or two longer) that it takes to fill an empty gasoline car tank.
The West is cooked. We're so far behind in everything. Chinas building high speed rail, Nuclear power plants like mad, while we sit here and give subsidies to the oil and gas industries and try to revive coal.
Its going to be just absolutely sad to watch.
我最近看了个视频,说他们已经能让电动车充电速度几乎和加满一箱汽油的时间一样快(也许就差一两分钟)。
西方完蛋了。我们在各方面都落后太多。
中国在疯狂建设高铁和核电站,而我们这边却还在给石油和煤炭行业发补贴,试图复活煤炭时代。
未来看着这一切只会让人感到悲哀。
TheOtherHobbes
In 20 years China is going to be steamrollered by climate change, just like every other country on Earth. But having a solid tech base and a fairly authoritarian political structure gives it better odds of surviving as something,
The US is going to be a wasteland - literally - unless it changes direction. Cities will have run out of water, alternating flood/drought/fire/storm cycles will make many areas uninhabitable, and agriculture and infrastructure will both be breaking down.
再过二十年,中国也会被气候变化碾压——就像地球上所有国家一样。
不过他们有坚实的技术基础和相对集权的政治结构,存活下来的几率反而更高。
而美国如果不改变方向,将会变成一片真正的废土——城市缺水、洪水干旱火灾风暴轮番上阵,大量地区无法居住,农业和基础设施全面崩溃。
leastem
I've been seeing a lot of cope coming from Americans recently talking about how bad it actually is in China and how they've only achieved what they have at the cost of freedoms etc... yet Americans are being stripped of freedoms every day, but there is very little infrastructure being built, very little proof of concept coming from their different tech departments. At least there is proof that the Chinese government is at least invested in building things that are a net benefit to the country as a whole.
最近看到很多美国人在自我安慰,说中国其实并没那么好,说他们的一切都是以牺牲自由换来的……
但与此同时,美国人的自由也在每天被剥夺,可是几乎没有新的基础设施在建造,也看不到什么科技部门的实质突破。
至少中国政府确实在投资建设那些能让国家整体受益的东西。
LighTMan913
China is 100% without a doubt winning the race to the future. Space, electric grid, AI, tech, all of it. China is pushing forwards while the US is willingly stagnating at the most critical time.
中国毫无疑问正在赢得“通往未来的竞赛”。
无论是太空、电网、人工智能还是科技领域,中国都在全力推进,而美国却在最关键的时刻自愿停滞。
CaptPants
I think the biggest issue is that the US is filtering every decision through the "How can the most profit be extracted from a decision" and any innovation through the lens of "Will this impact the fortune/industry dominance of one of our current billionaires"
Advancing human progress has taken a firm back seat to money extraction, instead of seeing progress
美国最大的问题是,每一个决策都要经过“如何最大化利润”的过滤。
任何创新都被拿来问一句:“这会不会影响我们某个亿万富翁的产业地位?”
推动人类进步的使命已经彻底让位给了逐利行为。
sojuz151
It is hard to tell how this will end up, China does not publish a timeline and the US is constantly delayed.
US has an advantage in the Launch vehicles and Orion had two test flights.
现在很难说最后会怎样。
中国没有公布明确时间表,而美国这边则一再延期。
美国在发射载具上有优势,Orion飞船也已经进行了两次测试飞行。
Bagger
I just hope that when the USA/West gets back to the moon they are there to stay. We've proved we can get there, we did over 50 years ago, dammit. Now I hope we prove we're in it for the long haul.
我只希望当美国或西方重新登月时,能留下来。
我们已经证明自己能做到——五十多年前就做到了。
现在我希望能证明我们是来长期驻留的。
blazze
This is great news. When China achieves technological superiority in space, America will freak out and create the next level of space technology.
这是个好消息。等中国在太空技术上取得压倒性优势,美国就会被逼疯,然后发明出下一代更先进的太空科技。
Maxrdt
I don't think the US has that capacity any more. Too much of the industrial base is gone, too many of the important players have been lost to chasing profits, and there's too little will to reverse any of those things.
The US can't even build a competent rail network and they're cancelling their science. They're brain draining themselves.
我不认为美国还有那种能力。
太多工业基础已经消失,太多关键人才被利润导向吸走,几乎没有人有意愿去逆转这种趋势。
美国连一套像样的铁路系统都建不起来,还在削减科研预算。他们正在自我掏空大脑。
Onerock
Does anyone actually care about this? Since the US did this more than 50 years ago, while using computing power the equivalent of a calculator, who cares if Paraguay revisits the moon first?
说真的,这件事还有人关心吗?
美国五十多年前就登上过月球了,当时用的计算能力还不如个计算器。
就算是巴拉圭先回到月球,那又怎样?
PigVile
It would be nice if we saw more cooperation! Reaching an early space stage would progress much faster if it wasn’t treated like a competition of "X beats Y in space"
如果能看到更多合作就好了!
人类太空探索的早期阶段本来可以进展更快——前提是不把它当成“X国在太空击败Y国”的竞赛。
OllyDee
There’s an argument for saying the competition is good. It gives each “side” a reason to actually push things forwards rather than dragging things out, cutting funding and sitting on their hands. Let them fight!
不过也有人认为竞争是好事。
它能让各方有动力去推进项目,而不是一拖再拖、削减经费、原地打转。
让他们继续竞争吧!
face_eater_5000
Everyone listen up, China isn't going to the Moon simply for national pride. They're going there to stay and they're going there to extract resources. They know they can use the lunar surface as a shallow gravity well so they can access the rest of the solar system. Whoever secures permanent access to the Moon secures the entire solar system. I wish I was being facetious.
大家注意,中国登月不是为了国家荣誉。他们是去常驻、去开采资源的。
他们明白,利用月球表面作为低重力跳板,就能进入整个太阳系。
谁掌握了月球的永久通道,谁就掌握了整个太阳系。
我真希望我是在开玩笑。