中国工业如何发展得过好、过快？

 
 
@user-propositionjoe
It's good to have competition across the sector. Maybe the legacy car makers will stop forcing the giant heavy expensive SUV EVs onto the market when they start seeing affordable Chinese EVs taking over. They will either adapt and improve their own lineup or they will be forgotten.
 
整个行业存在竞争是件好事。也许当传统汽车制造商看到价格低廉的中国电动汽车开始占领市场时，他们就不会再向市场强推巨型、重型、昂贵的 SUV 电动汽车了。他们要么适应并改进自己的产品线，要么就会被遗忘。
 
@ARepublicIfYouCanKeepIt
While we experience dual revolutions in industry and technology, we're also witnessing the effects of the differences between market-controlled and centrally controlled economies. For all the talk about Communism vs. democracy, the Chinese have maintained a laser focus for decades on becoming the vertically integrated powerhouse in manufacturing. And western governments have been all too eager to facilitate the gutting domestic manufacturing sectors, bowing to corporate masters in search of greater and greater profits.
Of course this is all extremely short sighted. For, as countries rely ever more on foreign suppliers, they become increasingly dependent on those foreign countries; particularly those that care first and foremost for that which is within their own borders.
As countries achieve manufacturing dominance, they expand into technology. This inevitably results in the now seriously weakened market-controlled economies being relegated to mere consumers. This is a downward spiral that doesn't end well for western economies.
Technology is, as they say, a double-edged sword. For, with domestic reserves of anything from lithium to sodium, as well as access to renewable energy generation from solar, wind, hydro, geothermal and/or tidal, most nations now have the ability to achieve energy, industrial and economic independence.
In the case of Australia, it makes zero sense to export lithium to China for processing and battery manufacture, only to have said batteries power vehicles manufactured in and exported from China. Heck, even if a country didn't have a base for things like steel or aluminum manufacturing, vehicle chassis can even be made from carbon fiber.
Countries such as Australia, the UK and others must stand up battery and vehicle manufacturing capabilities. Either that, or they wait for the day when they're left with few choices but to import most of the products needed for their countries to function.
Just as with climate change, this shift is gradual. Nonetheless, it's very real and comes with potentially devastating consequences should presidents, prime ministers and legislatures continue to ignore reality.
 
在我们经历工业和科技双重革命的同时，我们也见证了市场经济和中央集权经济之间的差异所带来的影响。尽管人们一直在谈论共产主义与民主主义，但中国几十年来一直致力于成为纵向一体化的制造业强国。而西方国家的政府一直急于为正在遭受重创的国内制造业提供便利，向企业主低头寻求越来越大的利润。
当然，这一切都非常短视。因为，随着各国越来越依赖外国供应商，它们对这些外国的依赖性也越来越强，尤其是那些首先关心本国境内产品的国家。
随着各国在制造业中占据主导地位，它们又向技术领域扩张，这必然导致现在被严重削弱的市场控制经济体沦为单纯的消费者。这是一个螺旋式下降的过程，对西方经济体来说不会有好结果。
俗话说，技术是一把双刃剑。因为有了从锂到钠的国内储备，以及太阳能、风能、水力、地热能和/或潮汐能等可再生能源发电，大多数国家现在都有能力实现能源、工业和经济独立。
就澳大利亚而言，将锂出口到中国进行加工和电池制造，然后再让这些电池为在中国制造并从中国出口的汽车提供动力，这种做法毫无意义。即使一个国家没有钢铁或铝制造基地，汽车底盘也可以用碳纤维制造。
澳大利亚、英国等国必须加强电池和汽车制造能力。否则，他们就只能等待有一天，在别无选择的情况下，进口国家运转所需的大部分产品。
正如气候变化一样，这种转变是渐进的。然而，如果总统、首相和立法机构继续无视现实，这种转变将非常真实并可能带来毁灭性的后果。
 
@universalmirage1208
Of course Australia should import more EV and PHEV from China as China imports even more minerals and agriculture products from Australia. It is called mutual benefits or win-win for both sides. Australian government learned lesson from trade war and becomes smarter now to put political disputes aside. Also Australia has very good weather for EV operation.
 
澳大利亚当然应该从中国进口更多的电动汽车和小排量电动汽车，因为中国从澳大利亚进口的矿产品和农产品会更多，这就是所谓的互利共赢。澳大利亚政府从贸易战中吸取了教训，现在变得更聪明了，把政治争端放在一边。此外，澳大利亚的天气也非常适合电动汽车的运行。
 
@RicknMorty85
Chinas EVs are so excellent because there are over 300+ EV manufacturers in China that has to compete with each other, so they are forced to innovate or get left behind, which is why each of their product they offer has to be the highest quality standard and the most affordable . Elon Musk even said himself this week, "Chinese automakers will 'demolish' global rivals without trade barriers", thats why the U.S government wants to ban Chinese EV makers and EU wants to raise tarrifs.
 
中国的电动汽车之所以如此优秀，是因为中国有 300 多家电动汽车制造商，他们必须相互竞争，因此他们不得不创新，否则就会落后。埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）本周甚至亲自表示："中国汽车制造商将在没有贸易壁垒的情况下'摧毁'全球竞争对手。
 
@jwickerszh
Exactly, there are more EV manufacturers competing in the Chinese market than there are in the rest of the world. This naturally means that prices go down while value goes up. The only hope foreign manufacturers could have would be if they show that they are able to succeed in the Chinese market .
 
没错，在中国市场上竞争的电动汽车制造商比世界其他国家都要多，这自然会意味着价格下降而价值上升。外国制造商唯一的希望就是证明他们能够在中国市场取得成功。
 
@flukeylukey7559
Also the Chinese were smart enough to go with Tesla's auto fashion, high tech, updatable and minimalist interior, some of the Chinese companies even started new started new EV companies to I think appear new, fresh and high tech. Not many people believe legacy auto will be as good or as high tech asTesla
 
中国人也很聪明，他们选择了特斯拉的汽车时尚、高科技、可更新和简约的内饰，一些中国公司甚至成立了新的电动汽车公司，我认为这将显得新颖、新鲜和高科技。没有多少人相信传统汽车会像特斯拉一样好或科技含量高。
 
@ruleoftwo6174
The Chinese car and EV sector is highly subsidized and politicized as a government initiative to dominate this industry globally.
According to consulting firm AlixPartners, direct government subsidies to electric and hybrid vehicles (note EXCLUDING other transportation) was $57Bn b/w 2016 and 2022.  Now with the EU investigating the subsidies, they've switched to a $72Bn tax incentive package for the same manufacturers over the next 4 years.
That is just for the vehicle manufacturers, the subsidies to the upstream suppliers is much harder to track. According Nikkei Asia, CATL the largest battery supplier in China received $400m in direct subsidies in the first 6 months of 2023.
Lastly, what foreigners are typically unaware of is the cheap financing provided to state directed industries in China.  The Chinese banks provide very low cost and long term NON-COMMERCIAL loans to industries that the government directs.  For most businesses in China, they are unable to obtain bank loans beyond 3 years and typically bank lending rates have been 5-7% range over the past decade.  But if you investigate the solar industry from a decade ago, Chinese banks provided 10+ year loans at 2-3% or even lower funding, calling these structured/project financing, but in reality these were backed by guarantees and government directives.  On that basis, the amount of low cost long term funding for the EV/car sector in China could be in the hundreds of billions.
The EV sector will track that of the solar sector.  Once China feels it is sufficiently dominant globally, it will withdraw all the subsidies.  And just like the solar sector, 90% of the companies will go bankrupt, along with their so-called "warranties" and post sale purchase.
In summary China never competes on a level playing field, it seeks to take over certain sectors it sees as strategic on global basis and will seek to use this as economic coercion/leverage.  EU and any other markets that are seeking to cooperate with China should be aware of these.  Furthermore the draconian "net zero" policies being pursued by western politicians is playing right into the Chinese strategy and all such politicians should be investigated for their personal income to check for conflict of interests.
Enjoy handing money to an authoritarian state that will use its economic leverage to force you onto your knees.
 
中国的汽车和电动汽车行业得到了政府的高度补贴并被政治化，以求在全球范围内主导这一行业。
根据咨询公司 AlixPartners 的数据，2016 年至 2022 年间，政府对电动汽车和混合动力汽车（注：不包括其他交通工具）的直接补贴为 570 亿美元。现在，随着欧盟对补贴进行调查，他们已转向了在未来 4 年内为相同的制造商提供 720 亿美元的税收激励方案。
这仅仅是针对汽车制造商的补贴，对上游供应商的补贴则更难跟踪。据《日经亚洲》报道，中国最大的电池供应商 CATL 在 2023 年前 6 个月获得了 4 亿美元的直接补贴。
最后，外国人通常不知道的是中国会向国家指导的产业提供廉价的融资。中国的银行会为政府引导的产业提供成本极低的长期非商业贷款。 对于中国的大多数企业来说，他们无法获得超过 3 年的银行贷款，而且在过去十年中，银行的贷款利率通常在 5% 至 7% 之间。 但如果你调查一下十年前的太阳能产业，你会发现中国的银行以 2% 至 3% 甚至更低的利率提供 10 年以上的贷款，这些贷款被称为结构性融资/项目融资，但实际上这些贷款是由担保和政府指令支持的。 在此基础上，中国电动车/汽车行业的低成本长期融资额可能高达数千亿美元。
电动汽车行业将与太阳能行业同步发展。 一旦中国认为自己在全球占据了足够的主导地位，就会取消所有补贴。就像太阳能行业一样，90% 的公司都会破产，连同它们所谓的 "保修 "和售后服务。
总之，中国从不在公平的环境中竞争，而是试图占领它认为具有全球战略意义的某些领域并以此作为经济胁迫/杠杆，欧盟和所有其他寻求与中国合作的市场都应意识到这一点。 此外，西方政客推行的严苛的 "净零 "政策正与中国的战略不谋而合，所有这些政客都应接受个人收入调查以检查是否存在利益冲突。
享受把钱交给专制国家的乐趣吧，它将利用其经济杠杆迫使你屈服。
 
@Supernaut2000
As is typical, the BIG brands had the advantage and blow it. GM, Ford, etc are all very good at this. Most new EV’s are $60K and go way up. The average buyer is struggling just to put groceries on the table and can’t afford this. So the Chinese will own the affordable car market, just like with TV’s and most everything else.
 
典型的情况是虽然大品牌占据了优势，但它们却搞砸了。通用汽车、福特汽车等在这方面都很擅长，它们的大多数新款电动车售价为 6 万美元甚至更高。普通购车者正在为餐桌上的日用品而挣扎，他们根本买不起这种车。因此，中国人将拥有经济型汽车市场，就像电视机和其他大多数产品一样。
 
@EliotHochberg
How does customer service and vehicle maintenance and repair of these Chinese brands compare with other in imported brands and Australia? It’s my understanding that they are no longer is any domestic passenger Carmen facture in Australia, correct me if that’s wrong. So when I’m wondering is have any of these companies established a maintenance and dealer network, are there customer service locations in Australia or China, And are they doing any better with regard to things like right to repair than companies like Tesla and even the larger OEM, who are moving to both subscxtion and requiring dealer repair?
Additionally, how does data protection factor in? Do all these vehicles require over the upxes? Are any of them More like traditional gas vehicles, and that they don’t have to check back with our manufacturers for software upxes? Are there any simple EVS?
And how would you rate the way these companies treat their workers compared with manufacturer from other countries? I know that a lot of products are already being made by Chinese workers, but there’s a difference between having a local company make a product which is manufactured in China, and having it completely manufactured in China.that could go either way as far as which is better or worse.
Finally, have any of these companies said they are going to start doing manufacturing in Australia?
 
这些中国品牌的客户服务、车辆保养和维修与其他进口品牌和澳大利亚相比如何？据我所知，澳大利亚已不再生产国产乘用车（如果有误，请指正）。因此，我想知道的是这些公司是否建立了维修和经销商网络，在澳大利亚或中国是否有客户服务网点，在维修权等方面是否比特斯拉等公司做得更好，甚至比正在转向订阅和要求经销商维修的大型原始设备制造商做得更好？
此外，数据保护如何？所有这些车辆都需要更新吗？它们中是否有更多车型像传统的汽油车一样，不需要向我们的制造商申请软件更新？有没有简单的电动汽车系统？
与其他国家的制造商相比，您如何评价这些公司对待工人的方式？我知道很多产品都是由中国工人生产的，但由本地公司生产中国制造的产品与完全由中国制造的产品是有区别的。
最后，这些公司中是否有人说过他们将开始在澳大利亚生产？
 
@DemPilafian
The real problem is NOT the loss of expertise in the West (after all we are "100 years ahead in combustion engine" manufacturing).  The real problem is all the big traditional car companies spent 20 years bad mouthing and fighting against EVs.  Not one single traditional car maker even tried to make a true pure EV until just the last couple years (GM kinda sorta made a half decent effort for a while).
Tesla was violent shock therapy to the traditional car manufactures.  Sadly, it may be too little too late.
 
真正的问题并不在于西方专业技术的流失（毕竟我们在内燃机制造领域 "领先 "了 100 年），真正的问题是所有的大型传统汽车公司花了20年的时间来唱衰和反对电动汽车。 直到最近几年，才有一家传统汽车制造商尝试制造真正的纯电动汽车（通用汽车还算努力了一段时间）。
特斯拉对传统汽车制造商来说是一次猛烈的休克疗法。遗憾的是，现在可能为时已晚。
 
@TerryHickey-xt4mf
China made it their goal to develop and produce evs 9 years ago because of this '100 year' reason.   There ev policy is common knowledge, so all the legacy auto makers knew this was Chinas'  auto future and yet did nothing about it.  Now they are paying the price.
 
由于这个 "百年 "理由，中国早在 9 年前就把研发和生产电动汽车作为了自己的目标。  中国的电动汽车政策是众所周知的，因此所有传统汽车制造商都知道这是中国汽车的未来，但它们却无动于衷。 现在，它们正在为此付出代价。
 
@trevorberridge6079
Yes, the Reagan/Thatcher era was the end of either country and the UK in particular being actual producers of goods. We don't make anything in the UK. That's one of the reasons why Brexit was always going to be a disaster because when you are a country that merely pieces together imported parts from other countries it's REALLY STUPID to reduce your ability to import parts from other countries.
Brand loyalty is another important issue. I had three Ford Fiestas and when I was ready to swap to an EV Ford had nothing suitable for me. So I went to Nissan and their Leaf has served me very well for eight years. It's no good sticking to a brand if they can't offer you a better blend of function and affordability than the new boy on the block. The legacy motor companies should have moved far more quickly on this. Now they are fighting for their lives and many of them are fighting dirty - in many cases quite literally as they produce more gas guzzlers when they're supposed to be reducing them.
 
是的，里根/撒切尔时代是任何一个国家（尤其是英国）作为实际商品生产者的终结。在英国，我们不生产任何东西。这就是为什么英国脱欧总是会成为一场灾难的原因之一，因为当你只是一个将从其他国家进口的零部件拼凑在一起的国家时，降低从其他国家进口零部件的能力是非常愚蠢的。
品牌忠诚度是另一个重要问题。我有三辆福特嘉年华，当我准备换成电动车时，福特没有适合我的车型。于是我选择了日产，他们的聆风已经为我服务了八年。如果一个品牌不能在功能性和经济性方面为你提供比新品牌更好的产品，那么坚持这个品牌是没有用的。传统的汽车公司本应在这方面加快步伐。现在，他们正在为自己的生命而战，其中许多人还在进行肮脏的斗争--在许多情况下，他们在本应减少油耗的情况下却生产了更多的油耗车，这简直就是在进行肮脏的斗争。
 
@BobQuigley
Unlike western governments China does not have fossil fuels corporate overlords who  pull the strings of government to meet their profit goals. Logical that China would go straight to EVs as they have very little oil and gas reserves. The efficiency of EVs of every type and size surely is lowering their use of oil for transportation significantly.
 
与西方政府不同的是中国没有化石燃料企业霸主（这些企业会为实现其利润目标而操纵政府）。由于中国的石油和天然气储量极少，因此直接使用电动汽车是合乎逻辑的。各种类型和大小的电动汽车肯定会大大降低他们在交通方面对石油的依赖。
 
@lagrangewei
Australia could be a EV hub if it allows foreign labour like it competitors do in ASEAN. otherwise with 20 million people. it going to be hard to fine engineers that can support a big car industry. the level of technology in cars are just very different from the past where u can get by. so I would say it is possible but unlikely... Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam are all courting Chinese EV brand to build factories in their country so the competition to be the production base is very high. factory are already being build in hungary, mexico, brazil. so the window is closing fast as we reach capacity... if australia want a piece of the action, it has to act fast on supporting policies.
 
如果澳大利亚像东盟的竞争对手那样允许外来劳动力，那么它就有可能成为电动汽车中心。否则，以澳大利亚 2000 万人口的规模，很难找到能够支持大型汽车产业的工程师。印尼、马来西亚、越南都在寻求中国电动汽车品牌在其国内建厂，因此成为生产基地的竞争非常激烈。中国电动汽车厂商已在匈牙利、墨西哥、巴西建厂，因此随着我们达到产能，窗口期正在迅速关闭......如果澳大利亚想分一杯羹，就必须在支持政策上迅速采取行动。
 
@stickynorth
Cars as they essentially become computers on wheels are being built where the global electronics industry is now HQ'd, Mainland China... Makes perfect sense to me... They have all the technological know-how, access to the largest labor poor and car market on earth, their own, and the desire for global economic domination. Good on ya, mate for having ambition because lord knows GM had every advantage in this industry and squandered it horribly... That's what you get!
 
汽车本质上已成为车轮上的电脑，而全球电子产业的总部都设在中国大陆...... 在我看来，这完全说得通... 他们掌握着所有的技术诀窍，拥有地球上最大的劳动力市场和汽车市场，而且渴望称霸全球经济。很高兴他们有这样的雄心壮志，因为天都知道通用汽车在这个行业里拥有一切优势，但却被可怕地挥霍掉了... 这就是它的下场！
 
@HNRichard
I liked how Chinese brands are selling cars at an affordable price with specs that you would see on more expensive cars. However there's one bothering me and that is their longevity. In China, most people bought brand new cars and rarely repair their old cars since new cars (especially EVs) are subsidized heavily and in turn made the car cheaper to buy. That is good and all, but I can't hide the fact that I'm skeptical if they have "planned obsolescence" already in place since car owners there buy new cars very often, especially EVs. I do hope that's not the case, because I genuinely liked some of them.
Yes, I do know some legacy brands also trying to implement this planned obsolescence thing too but they're one legislation away from doing this. So it's still safe... for now.
 
我很喜欢中国品牌以实惠的价格销售汽车，其配置在更昂贵的汽车上也能看到。但有一个问题让我很困扰，那就是它们的使用寿命。在中国，大多数人都买新车，很少维修旧车，因为新车（尤其是电动汽车）有大量的补贴，这反过来又使汽车的购买成本更低。这固然是好事，但我不能掩盖一个事实，那就是我怀疑他们是否已经实施了 "计划报废"，因为那里的车主经常购买新车，尤其是电动汽车。我希望情况不是这样，因为我真心喜欢其中一些车型。
 
是的，我知道一些传统品牌也在试图实施这种 "计划报废 "的做法，但他们只差一项立法就能做到了。所以......现在还是安全的。
 
@kaimingraymondchoi9909
The video rightly pointed out that it is difficult to distinguish between Chinese EV and non-Chinese EV. To give people an idea, one of the battery manufacturers hold over 60% of the world market. But on a second thought why should Australia singles out China. China is the most complimentary country to Australia in terms of trade and resources. Does Australia want to follow the foot step of Europe, a declinging economy, being a proxy war fighter for United States while US keeps growing stronger and stronger.
 
该视频正确地指出了很难区分中国电动车和非中国电动车，因为其中一家电池制造商占据了全球 60% 以上的市场份额。但转念一想，澳大利亚为什么要把中国单列出来呢？在贸易和资源方面，中国是澳大利亚最为互补的国家。澳大利亚是否想追随欧洲这个正在衰退的经济体的脚步，成为美国的代理人，而与此同时美国却越来越强大。
 
@jeremyradford5103
I keep hearing reviewers saying that BYD has sold more EVs than Tesla last year, but this is only true if you include PHEVs, which are petrol cars and not EVs.
Of course, BYDs success should be celebrated, but their inclusion of PHEVs in their EV sales data is misleading.
 
我一直听到评论家说比亚迪去年的电动车销量超过了特斯拉，但这只是在包括混动车型的情况下，因为混动车型是汽油车而不是电动车。
当然，比亚迪的成功值得庆贺，但他们将混动车型纳入电动车销量数据是一种误导。
 
@tren133
Literally none of them said BYD sold more EVs in 2023. They are all saying BYD sold more EVs in FOURTH QUARTER of 2023, including in this very video. Which also means for sure BYD will sell more EVs compared to Tesla in 2024, because they are on a higher growth trajectory.
 
几乎没有一个人说比亚迪在 2023 年卖出了更多的电动车。他们都说比亚迪在 2023 年第四季度卖出了更多的电动车，包括在这段视频中。这也意味着2024 年比亚迪的电动车销量肯定会超过特斯拉，因为他们的增长轨迹更高。
 
@Techning
I really appreciate brands like BYD because other brands are then dropping prices. Personally I wouldn't by a Chinese car right now because I believe (and many tests show) that the cars have all of the features on paper but they don't work really well. A good example for this are driving assistance features. The way I see Chinese cars right now is "cheaper than the others but the others are still better and worth more money". But of course this can change rapidly in the future.
 
我非常欣赏比亚迪这样的品牌，因为其他品牌也在降价。就我个人而言，我现在不会购买中国汽车，因为我相信（许多测试也表明），这些汽车拥有纸面上的所有功能，但实际使用起来并不好，驾驶辅助功能就是一个很好的例子。我现在对中国汽车的看法是 "比别人便宜，但别人还是更好，值得花更多的钱"。当然，这种情况在未来可能会迅速改变。