QA：美国大豆种植户可以迅速转种哪些作物来挽救生计？

Angela Birch
They cannot quickly switch to another crop to save their livelihood. They have lost the sale of this years crop. They borrowed money to plant this years crop which they were supposed to pay back when it was harvested. No new crop can be planted till next spring at the earliest and most will not be able to borrow the money to plant any crop next year, because they borrowed to plant this year’s crop and were not able to pay it back. Most are deeply in debt for not just planting but for equipment which they can’t pay because no one is buying their crops. It is unlikely many will save their livelihood.
Interestingly it seems that Vance is deeply invested in a company which buys farms from farmers in distress for pennies on the dollar. HMMmm.

他们无法迅速改种其他作物来维持生计。他们失去了今年作物的销售收入。他们借钱种植今年的作物，本应在作物收获时偿还债务。最早也要到明年春天才能种植新作物，而且大多数人明年也借不到钱种植任何作物，因为他们借钱种植今年的作物，却无力偿还。大多数人不仅因为种植而负债累累，还因为设备欠债，因为没人买他们的作物，他们无力偿还。许多人不太可能维持生计。
有趣的是，万斯似乎在一家公司投入巨资，这家公司以极低的价格从陷入困境的农民手中收购农场。嗯……

Stephanie
You don’t know anything about farming, or you would already know that that’s not how it works. Not even close.
Let’s start with how it used to go… and then proceed to why it doesn’t and can’t go that way now… and then, last, what - if anything - can be done about it.
China used to buy nearly all of the soybeans that American farmers raised, until Trump started his trade war. American farmers did well.
After Trump started playing games with his foolish trade wars, China wisely (from their viewpoint) stopped buying American soybeans and found other sources in the world, countries who weren’t playing foolish games with zero understanding of what they were doing. China has billions of people to feed and can’t afford to play silly games like that.
Most Americans have absolutely no idea about anything regarding farming… especially commercial scale farming.
It requires a lot of specialty farm equipment, almost all of which is used for harvesting of o e particular kind of crop… you can’t use the same equipment for all kinds of crops (or, in many cases, any other kinds of crops).
Types of soil, and many other land conditions, are good for one, or maybe a few, kinds of crops… and no other crops. You can’t just grow anything anywhere. It’s extremely specific.
Weather conditions equally matter just as much, regarding what crops can — and cannot — be grown in any given place.
Commercial farming is expensive to get started in.
It’s not like you can go buy the hundreds of acres of good farmland (good, that is, for a particular crop or few crops only) cheaply. It’s expensive to buy land. Do you own a house? If you do — you already know what real estate costs. If you don’t — that’s probably because you can’t even afford a house on a one acre (or smaller) property.
Even if you inherit a farm property… buying the required equipment for working the land, for planting, and for harvesting is very expensive.
Even if you inherit a farm and equipment… buying everything you need to plant, tend to the crop(s), and bring them to the harvest point is so expensive that you must borrow money to pay for all of this. You are ‘in the hole’ for a significant percentage of your hoped-for profit before you have even planted!
If you are lucky, nothing catastrophic goes wrong and you end up making your profit (minus what you owe and must pay back).
More likely, something goes wrong, and you make some of the expected profit. If you are unlucky — which happens often enough (esp with climate change and trade wars waged by fools who don’t understand how tariffs work and plain old ‘acts of God/chance’)… you lose it all. I mean, ALL. What you borrowed for that year. Your farm and equipment, when you can’t pay your mortgage and loans and your taxes.
You can easily lose it all in one year. You more likely will lose it all after a second catastrophic year following the first one. Even if you have one good year in between two catastrophic years, you will be lucky just to break even and hang on to your farm… and you’d better pray the year after that is also very good.
After one bad year… when you can’t sell your crop, having no buyer(s)… you probably can’t afford to borrow enough to try for a good year next year. You’re tapped out, done, can’t recover financially and will lose your entire livelihood and your home. You are broke and probably homeless.
This is the point at which many American soybean farmers are right now → “tapped out, done, can’t recover financially and will lose [their] entire livelihood and home … broke and probably homeless”.
That leaves absolutely no time to “switch your livelihood” to something else and try again. With what? You have nothing left. You lost it all.

你对农业一无所知，否则你早就应该知道它不是那样运作的。差远了。
让我们先从过去的情况说起……然后再探讨为什么现在不会、也不能那样发展……最后，如果可以的话，我们能做些什么。
在特朗普发动贸易战之前，中国几乎购买了美国农民种植的所有大豆。美国农民运转良好。
在特朗普开始玩弄愚蠢的贸易战之后，中国明智地（从他们的角度来看）停止了购买美国大豆，并在世界范围内找到了其他来源。从那些不玩愚蠢的游戏、不会对自己的行为一无所知的国家。中国要养活数十亿人口，不能玩这种愚蠢的游戏。
大多数美国人对农业一无所知……尤其是商业规模的农业。
它需要大量的专用农用设备，几乎所有这些设备都用于收割特定种类的作物……你不能用同一种设备收割所有种类的作物（或者，在很多情况下，不能收割任何其他种类的作物）。
土壤类型和许多其他土地条件，只适合一种或几种作物……而不适合其他作物。你不可能做到在任何地方种植任何东西。它非常具体。
天气条件同样重要，它决定了在特定地点可以种植什么作物，不能种植什么作物。
商业化农业的起步成本很高。
你不可能便宜地买到几百英亩的优质农田（指只适合种植特定作物或几种作物的优质农田）。买地很贵的。你有房子吗？如果有——你已经知道房地产的价格了。如果没有——那可能是因为你甚至买不起一英亩（或更小）土地上的房子。
即使你继承了农场财产……购买耕地设备、种植设备和收割设备也非常昂贵。
即使你继承了农场和设备……购买种植、照料作物以及将它们运送到收割点所需的一切费用也非常昂贵，以至于你必须借钱来支付所有这些费用。在你种植之前，你已经“亏空”了预期利润的很大一部分！
如果你幸运的话，没有发生灾难性的事情，你最终获得了利润（减去你欠的和必须偿还的钱）。
更有可能的情况是，出了问题，你获得了部分预期利润。如果你不幸——这种情况经常发生（尤其是在气候变化和贸易战中，这些贸易战是由那些不懂关税运作方式的傻瓜发动的，以及那些老掉牙的“天灾/偶然事件”）……你会失去一切。我的意思是，所有。为了偿还你那一年借的钱，你的农场和设备，当你无力偿还抵押贷款和税款时，都会被收走。
你很容易在一年之内失去一切。更有可能的情况是，在第一个灾难年之后的第二个灾难年，你就会血本无归。即使在两个灾难年之间有一个好的年景，你能够收支平衡并保住你的农场就已经很幸运了……你最好祈祷后年也能过得很好。
在一个糟糕的年份之后……当你卖不掉你的作物，没有买家……你可能没有足够的钱来争取明年的好年景。你已经精疲力竭，完蛋了，经济上无法恢复，你将失去你的全部生计和你的家。你身无分文，可能无家可归。
这就是许多美国大豆种植户现在的处境→“精疲力竭，完蛋了，经济上无法恢复，将失去你的全部生计和家……身无分文，可能无家可归”。
这绝对没有时间让你“转换生计”并再次尝试。用什么尝试？你一无所有。你失去了一切。


Ned Ford
I can’t see anything wrong with Stephanie’s answer. But I want to add that before The Idiot began his war on farmers, U.S. farming was in trouble. 40% of U.S. grain goes to ethanol. 18 years after the current ethanol mandate was implemented, the industry is still not able to function without raising the cost of gasoline.
I advocate a reconsideration of the crop price support program that the U.S. had in the 1960’s. It cost the Federal Government pennies to save dollars at the supermarkets, and I certainly don’t remember farmers being in the sort of trouble they have been in since the 1980’s.
An answer which really makes a great deal of sense, but will seem sarcastic, is building wind and solar farms. That isn’t a complete solution. The U.S. needs about 6% of dry land to produce all the energy it needs from wind and solar farms, and approximately 10% of the U.S. is producing soybeans right now.
Many farmers have already discovered this, but the current wind and solar construction in the U.S. lags global wind and solar as a percent of total electricity, and produces about 17% of total electricity, which is about 6% of the eventual total potential, not including growth in consumption over the years it takes to build all that wind and solar equipment.
Nothing good is going to happen until we get rid of Republican leadership. That ought to be obvious, but anyone who doesn’t already get it will have as much added information as they possibly can handle in the next few months - as the harvest comes and goes.

我认为楼上的回答没有任何问题。但我想补充一点，在“白痴”开始对农民发动战争之前，美国农业就已经陷入了困境。40% 的美国谷物用于生产乙醇。在现行乙醇强制令实施 18 年后，如果不提高汽油价格，该行业根本无法正常运转。
我主张重新审视美国20世纪60年代实施的农作物价格支持计划。该计划以联邦政府投入的少量资金换取超市商品的稳定价格，这样，农民就不会陷入像20世纪80年代那样的困境。
一个非常有道理但听起来有些讽刺的答案，就是建设风能和太阳能发电场。​但这并非完整的解决方案。美国大约需要6%的旱地，来建设风电场和太阳能发电站，以满足全部能源需求，而目前美国约有10%的土地正在种植大豆。
许多农民已经发现了这一点，但目前美国风能和太阳能的建设占总发电量的百分比落后于全球，仅占总发电量的17%左右，约占最终总发电量的6%，这还不包括建设所有这些风能和太阳能设备所需时间的消费增长。
除非我们摆脱共和党领导层，否则不会有任何好结果。这应该是显而易见的，所有尚未意识到这一点的人，在接下来的几个月里——随着收获的到来和结束——都应该尽可能多地了解到更多信息。

Helen Briscoe
What is really odd about US farming is borrowing from a bank to raise a crop not for your own use.
In European farming, the land owned is used to raise animasls or what they need to eat. If you have a good harvest you sell your surplus.
The idea of growing for a market you have no contact with, and being a labourer for little reward to pay a bank loan has so many things wrong with it. And being dependent on a government which purposely makes your life difficult by offending your markets..
I stopped buying US soy beans when they went GM. . Like most goalkeepers they gave me a boost for milking competitions! But I am not feeding GM to my animals.
And British farmers were told to diversify during 90s. Basically they were told not to solely rely on farming for an income.

美国农业真正奇怪的地方在于，你从银行借钱种植的作物，并非是用来自用的。
在欧洲农业中，土地是用来饲养动物或满足它们食物需求的。如果收成好，你就会把剩余的作物卖掉。
为一个你毫无接触的市场而种植，作为劳动力却只能获得微薄报酬，其他的需要用来偿还银行贷款，这其中的问题实在太多了。你还需要依赖一个故意刁难你的市场、损害你生计的政府，更是雪上加霜……
美国大豆转向转基因时，我就停止了购买美国大豆。他们可以让我在挤奶比赛中获得胜利，但我不会给我的动物喂食转基因食品。
90年代，英国农民被告知要实现种植多元化。其实，他们被告知的是：不要仅仅依靠农业来获得收入。

Blair Blakely
They cannot switch ‘quickly’ to any new crop. Many crops require special equipment and facilities to grow a crop in the first place. If they switch to a ‘new crop’, they will need some new equipment and changes in the farm infrastructure. This all takes money and time. it is not unusual for a farm to take over a year to switch from one crop to another.
Soybeans take 75 to 120 days from planting to harvest. You spend money to prepare the soil and plant. Wait until they are ready for harvest. harvest them and sell them to recover the money you spent to plant in the first place.
If your sales contracts fall through and you can’t sell your harvest….

他们无法“快速”地转换到任何新作物。许多作物的种植首先需要特殊的设备和设施。如果转换到“新作物”，他们将需要一些新设备并改变农场的基础设施。这一切都需要金钱和时间。农场从一种作物转换到另一种作物需要一年多的时间，这并不罕见。
大豆从种植到收获需要75到120天。你需要花钱准备土壤和种植。等到它们成熟可以收获时，再收割并出售，这样你就可以收回当初种植的成本。
如果你的销售合同失效，你无法出售你的作物……

Joan Vredik Broadley
What crops are still being bought by foreign countries? USAID cancellation was a huge blow to farmers; they purchased a lot of farm products. What foods will American consumers need to buy to balance their personal budgets with the huge increases in sales taxes (Trump calls them “tariffs”)? I’m thinking turnips, potatoes and collard greens; foods traditional consumed by “poor” people.

外国仍在购买哪些农作物？美国国际开发署的取消，对农民来说是一个巨大的打击。他们购买了大量农产品。美国消费者需要购买哪些食物才能平衡个人预算，以应对销售税（特朗普称之为“关税”）的大幅上涨？我想到的是萝卜、土豆和羽衣甘蓝。这些传统上由“穷人”消费的食物。

Susan Starks
There is no quick switch for US farmers.
First, this year’s growing season is over.
Second, US farmers are stuck. If they have been using Roundup or have ever used Roundup to control weeds in their fields, their land is poisoned. Only plants genetically modified to grow in glyphosate tainted soil will grow.
So next year, farmers can buy and plant whatever patented crops Bayer AG (formerly Monsanto) has genetically modified for use with glyphosate.
IF they can hold out that long. If not, JD Vance has a company that will buy their farms for pennies on the dollar…. Strange how that worked out... Trade policies were manipulated and Federal farm assistance programs were eliminated so farmers would be bankrupted and politically connected billionaires could buy up their farm land for pennies and make tremendous amounts of money by renting or reselling the land or by controlling the US food supply.
HMM…it has to be a coincidence. Nothing to see here folks.

美国农民没有快速转换的办法。
首先，今年的种植季已经结束。
其次，美国农民陷入了困境。如果他们一直在使用农达，或者曾经使用过农达来除草，他们的土地就会被毒害。只有转基因植物才能在受草甘膦污染的土壤中生长。
所以明年，农民可以购买和种植拜耳公司（前身为孟山都公司）任何经过转基因、可与草甘膦混合使用的专利作物。
前提是他们能坚持那么久。如果坚持不了那么久，JD Vance 的公司会以极低的价格收购他们的农场……结果真是奇怪……贸易政策被操纵，联邦农业援助计划被取消，农民破产，而那些有政治关系的亿万富翁可以以极低的价格买下他们的农田，通过出租或转售土地，控制美国的粮食供应，赚取巨额利润。
嗯……这一定是个巧合。各位，这里没什么好看的。

Danny Collins
Many “soybean farmers” are also corn farmers and wheat farmers. They raise a combination of those crops in rotation, allocating a certain number of acres to each crop for a particular year. There are some farmers that have “specialized” in producing soybeans and for them a crisis in the soybean market is a very serious problem. There are combinations of insurance policies covering crop loss and pricing contracts where a farmer can contract a portion of his harvest for a guaranteed price upon delivery at a date certain. Those help mitigate some risk in crop production.
To specifically answer the question posed the “best” alternatives to switch to in uncertain soybean markets would probably be corn or wheat. However once the crop is planted there’s no “changing your mind.” So the alternative crop will be a consideration for the next planting season, and will be based on market conditions at that time and the “futures market” the speculative market for a date in the future which you can purchase a contract to deliver your product on that date.

许多“大豆种植户”同时也种植玉米和小麦。他们轮作种植这些作物，并在特定年份为每种作物分配一定数量的土地。有些农民“专精”种植大豆，对他们来说，大豆市场危机是一个非常严重的问题。目前有一些组合保险，涵盖作物损失，以及定价合同，农民可以签订合同，在特定日期交付部分收成，并保证价格。这些合同有助于降低作物生产中的一些风险。
具体的回答一下这个问题，在不确定的大豆市场中，“最佳”的替代选择可能是玉米或小麦。然而，一旦作物种植完毕，就无法“改变主意”。因此，替代作物将是下一个种植季节的考虑因素，并将基于当时的市场状况和“期货市场”（未来某个日期的投机市场）来决定。在期货市场中，您可以购买合约，到了预定日期再交付产品。

Peter Balin
That’s not as easy as some might think. I haven’t raised small grain for about 30 years, and if I was to start I’d need to buy different equipment. Not so sure I would want to do that since small grain prices aren’t too good either. As far as row crops I already grow soybeans and corn, so I could probably grow edible beans as some in our area do, but they’re not looking very good this year either.
In the northern climes where I live we’re done for the year except to harvest. I’ve already ordered fertilizer for next year, and changing crops for next year would be difficult. I also can’t think of any crops that I could count on to make more money than what I’ve got.
So we do what we do every time this happens. Hunker down and hope things change soon.

这不像有些人想的那么容易。我已经大约30年没种过细粮了，如果开始种，得买不同的设备。我不太确定自己是否愿意种，因为细粮的价格也不太好。至于行栽作物，我已经种了大豆和玉米，所以我应该可以像我们这边有些人一样种一些食用豆，但今年的长势也不太好。
在我住的北方地区，除了收割，今年的作物就都种完了。我已经订购了明年的化肥，明年换茬种别的作物会很困难。我也想不出还有什么作物能比现在的赚得更多。
所以每次遇到这种情况，我们都会采取相应的措施。静下心来，希望情况能尽快好转。

Mark Seitz
Not much. There are roughly 200 million acres of corn and soybeans grown in the US and about 11 million acres of fruits and vegetables. Prices for all of those commodities are flat, at best. That is an indication that the markets are saturated, which means switching from one to another isn't going to change your profitability.
Plus you have to establish a reputation as a reliable supplier before most buyers will buy large quantities from you. 
So the only alternative is exporting grain. And politicians love to play politics with grain.

办法不多。美国种植了大约2亿英亩的玉米和大豆，以及大约1100万英亩的水果和蔬菜。所有这些商品的价格充其量都持平。这表明市场已经饱和，也就是说，从一种产品转向另一种产品不会改变你的盈利能力。
此外，你必须树立可靠供应商的声誉，大多数买家才会愿意大量购买。
所以唯一的选择就是出口粮食。而政客们喜欢利用粮食玩弄政治。

John Cip
Without immigrants to work the fields, not much can be substituted. Many will go into bankruptcy. Oh, once upon a time, the Feds helped those small farmers with funds. These new Nazi leaders (Fuhrer Trump and his Fascist GOP goons) we have running our government are trying not to help. The funds are being diverted to the rich and powerful.

如果没有移民来耕种，几乎什么作物都替代不了。很多人会破产。哦，联邦政府曾经用资金帮助过那些小农户。而我们政府里的这些新纳粹领导人（特朗普元首和他的法西斯共和党暴徒们）却试图不提供帮助。资金被挪用到了富人和权贵手中。