美农民：没有中国购买大豆我们还能坚持很久！美网友：很好，说明国家根本就不需要给你们补助

Paul Anderson
I’m in the middle of soybean harvest. Every bushel my family has harvested so far has been hauled to a buyer and immediately sold at a profit.
I can hang on a long time that way.
Did you want numbers?
How about the numbers for the first field we harvested?
The seed for that field cost me $3,750. I spent 3,400 on herbicides to control the weeds. I spent another $1,200 on some foliar micronutrients and molasses.
The rent on that field is $15,000. I figure machinery costs at around $7,500.
Another $2,000 on insurance and misc.
Total expenses $32,850.
We harvested 5,540 bushels of soybeans. I sold them for an average of $9.46/bushel.
That comes out to $52,408.
That’s not theoretical, those are the actual dollar amounts this year.
Almost $20K profit. Well, actually it would be considered return to labor.
I have more fields to go.
I can hold on for a while.
Now, if yields hadn’t been so good, or any of several different factors were different, then the bottom line would be different. But these are my actual numbers for this year.
God is Good.
EDIT:
Since this is blowing up, I’ll address the question of why this doesn’t sound typical.
The biggest factor is that rent payment. Many farmers would be paying $20K to farm that field. Some might be even more. And machinery costs of $10K wouldn’t be out of line either.
And the yields this year were above average. A more typical soybean yield for that field might be closer to 4,800 bushels. And the yield would have to drop to nearly 4,000 bushels to trigger any insurance payment.
Doing the math with the higher rent and machinery costs, and a lower yield. Say 4,400 bushels.
That would make the expenses $40,350 against revenue of $41,624. That’s a pretty pitiful return to labor.
I’m fortunate that the landowner is more concerned with stewarding the land than he is with getting the top dollar. That is not the case for everyone. Fundamentally, the rents and the machinery costs are often out of line with current grain price. Bailouts are crutches that allow those costs to remain elevated. We need to let costs re-adjust back in line with revenues.
There’s an excellent series on that topic by the premier authority on the farm bills. The latest is well worth reading.
History & Tough Reality: When Payments Do More Harm Than Good, Consider Other Options - farmdoc daily
Jonathan Coppess and Otto Doering - Maybe history can provide handrails in turbulent, difficult times. For many farmers, this harvest season threatens such times. Some of the crops being combined in fields lack the market demand expected at planting because the Trump Administration’s tariff policies and trade conflicts have damaged commodity exports. Unfortunately, the only response at the ready in national conversations appears to be the siren’s call for additional payments to farmers.
As an aside, soybeans were not the only crop produced on this field this year.

我现在正值大豆收获季。我家目前收获的每一蒲式耳大豆都运到了买家手中，做到了立即售出获利。
这样我就能撑很久。
你想要数据吗？
我们收获的第一块田地的数据怎么样？
那块地的种子花了我3750美元。我花了3400美元购买除草剂来控制杂草。我又花了1200美元购买了一些叶面微量营养素和糖蜜。
那块地的租金是15000美元。我估计机械成本大约是7500美元。
另外还有2000美元用于保险和杂费。
总支出32850美元。
我们收获了5540蒲式耳大豆。我以平均每蒲式耳9.46美元的价格出售了它们。
总计获得52408美元。
这不是理论上的，这就是今年的实际金额。
利润差不多2万美元。嗯，实际上这算是劳动回报。
我还有更多的田地要耕种。
我可以坚持一段时间。
如果产量不是那么好，或者其他几个因素有所不同，那么最终结果就会有所不同。但这些是我今年的实际数据。
上帝保佑。
编辑：
其实情况已经恶化，我来解释一下为什么这听起来不典型。
最大的因素是租金。许多农民耕种这样一块田地要支付2万美元的租金。有些人甚至可能需要付出更多的租金。而且，1万美元的机械成本也不算离谱。
而且今年的产量高于平均水平。这块田地更典型的大豆产量可能接近4800蒲式耳。而产量必须降至近4000蒲式耳才能触发保险赔付。
算一下，租金和机械成本更高，产量更低。假设产量为4400蒲式耳。
这意味着支出为40350美元，而收入为41624美元。这对劳动力来说，回报相当可怜。
我很幸运，地主更关心的是管理土地，而不是赚取最高的收益。但并非每个人都如此。从根本上说，租金和机械成本往往与当前的粮价脱节。救助金只是支撑这些居高不下成本的拐杖。我们需要让成本重新调整，使其与收入保持一致。
农业法案领域的权威专家就此主题撰写了一系列精彩的文章。最新一篇非常值得一读：《历史与残酷的现实：当支出大于获得时，请考虑其他选择》
对许多农民来说，这个收获季正预示着这样的时刻。由于特朗普政府的关税政策和贸易冲突损害了大宗商品出口，一些正​​在田里收割的作物缺乏播种时预期的市场需求。不幸的是，全国对话中唯一准备好的回应似乎就是向农民提供额外的补贴。
顺便说一句，大豆并非今年这片田地里种植的唯一作物（译注：他的意思是还给鸟类提供了繁衍生息的场所，他贴了张图，是鸟和鸟蛋。还写了版权所有，严禁转载，我就不贴了）。

Matt Simpson
You sound pretty optimistic and things seem pretty good based on your one field result. 2 questions: how many more fields will you be harvesting with that expected result, and where does your harvest ultimately end up?

您听起来非常乐观，而且根据您的一片田地的结果，事情似乎很好。有两个问题：您还需要收获多少块田地才能达到预期的收入结果，您的收获大豆最终会流向哪里？

Paul Anderson
I don’t expect quite that good a yield on the later planted fields, but they’ll be above the “typical yield” I posted above.
As to where they ultimately end up, I don’t really know. They aren’t my soybeans anymore.

我并不指望后期种植的田地会有那么好的产量，但应该会高于我上面提到的“典型产量”。
至于它们最终会去哪儿，我真的不知道。它们已经不再是我的大豆了。

Rachel Bolyard
Why are Arkansas farmers asking for bailouts if everything is peachy?

如果一切都很顺利，那么阿肯色州农民为何要要求救助？

Paul Anderson
Arkansas is in the South, and I’m hesitant to comment too much on why they do what they do.
I know they do have higher machinery costs, and Arkansas probably has higher fertilizer costs, especially for soybeans. I’m blessed with very fertile soils that weren’t subjected to the plow until well after the US Civil War.
Arkansas was plowed and eroded long before then. They don’t have the same quality soils that I do.
And the South is a hotter and more humid environment, making them much more prone to fungal diseases. They will spend more money than I on fungicides.
Other than that, I suspect some of it is posturing for free money. But I don’t know that.

阿肯色州位于美国南部，我不太愿意过多评论他们这样做的原因。
我知道他们的机械成本确实更高，阿肯色州的化肥成本可能也更高，尤其是大豆的化肥成本。我很幸运，我这里的土壤非常肥沃，直到美国内战结束后很久才开始犁地。
阿肯色州在那之前很久就被犁地，土壤也受到了侵蚀。他们的土壤质量不如我。
而且南方气候更炎热潮湿，更容易感染真菌病害。他们在杀菌剂上的花费会比我多。
除此之外，我怀疑其中一些做法是为了捞钱。但我对此并不确定。

John Mynard
The fields are smaller down here too. There a guy that farms about 1000 acres near me in North-Central Alabam, he has to drive all over the county to plant and harvest all of them, and he's the 2nd or 3rd Largest in the area.

那里的田地也比较小。在我家附近，阿拉巴马州中北部，有个家伙耕种着大约1000英亩的田地，他得开车跑遍全县才能播种和收割完，他的农场是当地第二大或第三大。

Jeff Gao
I'd assume you have a great interest in maintaining the treasure of chernozem for the time being?

我猜想您目前对维护黑土地这个珍贵资源抱有极大兴趣？

Paul Anderson
Much. Did you read my pinned answer about soil life?

非常多。你读过我置顶的关于土壤生命的回答吗？

Zac Jam
Yup, this is what the American people need to see. Farmers don’t need ANOTHER bailout and they are extremely profitable and can survive with no problem according to this guy. HMM.. let’s use our tax money for something worthwhile.

是的，这正是美国人民需要看到的。农民不需要再接受一次救助，而且据这家伙说，他们利润丰厚，生存毫无问题。嗯……让我们把税金用在更有价值的事情上吧。

Kent Abercrombie
You vote for Trump and you get cash under the table. The Art of the Deal.

你投票给特朗普，却能得到私下的钱财。这就是交易的艺术。

Just Thinking
Instead of whining about subsidies to the people who feed you, talk about the money wasted on useless government people, politicians ,the military industrial complex and the obscenely rich who DO NOT pay enough in taxes .Farmers keep you fed and pour money right back into the economy. If you feel farmers are bad people , you can protest by not eating anything that comes off a farm

与其抱怨给那些养活你的人的补贴，不如谈谈那些浪费在无用的政府人员、政客、军工联合体以及那些不缴纳足够税款的巨富身上的钱。农民养活了你，又把钱重新投入到经济中。如果你觉得农民是坏人，你可以抗议，不吃任何来自农场的东西。

Bob Amy
You don’t know about any if that.

你对这些一无所知。

G Reeves
We all eat and government programs which reduce the risk of wearher related losses keep more people farming. This reduces the prices we all pay. The ethanol subsidies which put corn into gas tanks may be a different story.

我们每个人都需要吃饭，而政府降低相关损失风险的项目让更多人可以继续耕种。这降低了我们所有人为吃饭需要支付的价格。而将玉米放入油箱的乙醇补贴可能是另一回事。

Khengchat Ng
Maybe they are in cahoots to milk the US public? Raise tariffs for money, masquerading as job protection. Farmers scream China don't want soybeans as a result, but there is demand locally. Trump gives bailout from the tariff money. Farmers get double income and keep supporting Trump. Genius!!

也许是他们正在合谋榨取美国民众的利益？提高关税赚钱，却打着保障就业的旗号。结果农民们叫嚣中国不想要大豆，但美国本土却确实有需求。特朗普用关税钱来救助美国。农民们收入翻倍，还能继续支持特朗普。真是天才！

Joseph Morgan
Thats a question for thr Arkansas farmers. Maybe you should ask them and report back?
Or, are you just trying to find reasons to blame the current administration for any ill?

这是阿肯色州农民提出的问题。也许你应该问问他们，然后再汇报？
或者，你只是想找理由把任何弊端都归咎于现任政府？

Rachel Bolyard
Neither the Op nor myself made ANY reference to what the administration is or is not doing. Stay sensitive, bro.

楼主和我都没提政府在做什么或没做什么。兄弟，别这么敏感。

MQ
Soy bean was more than $16/bushel in 2022. It kept dropping in the last few years. Now it's about $10/bushel. With the inflation that we had in the last few years, the loss was definitely more than 60%.

2022年大豆价格超过16美元/蒲式耳。过去几年一直在下跌。现在大约是10美元/蒲式耳。考虑到过去几年的通货膨胀，损失肯定超过60%。

Paul Anderson
$16/bushel was a spike high. It wasn’t a sustainable price in 2022 adjusted dollars. $10–12 in 2022 dollars is a better range all around. It keeps demand up while letting farmers make some money.

16美元/蒲式耳的价格只能是昙花一现。以2022年调整后的美元计算，这个价格是不可持续的。以2022年的美元计算，10-12美元/蒲式耳的价格总体来说是一个更好的价格区间。这既能维持需求，又能让农民赚到一些钱。

MQ
It was not a spike. The price of soybean is just volatile. China has been buying more and more Brazilian soybeans while Brazilian has been increasing its production in the last ten years drastically. If China buys more Brazilian soybeans, those who used to buy Brazilian soybeans may turn to the US

这不是什么昙花一现。大豆价格只是波动性很大。中国一直在购买越来越多的巴西大豆，而巴西的大豆产量在过去十年里也大幅增加。如果中国购买更多巴西大豆，那些过去购买巴西大豆的人可能会转向美国。

凛冬将至
What a good thing! We buy soybeans from other countries, and you can also sell your soybeans to other countries. Let’s all firmly push for the complete decoupling between our two countries—each go our own way and be well on our own!

这多好啊！我们从其他国家买大豆，你们也可以把大豆卖给其他国家。让我们坚定推动两国彻底脱钩，各走各的路，各自好走！

Quinn Copeland
Absolutely.
It’ll be fascinating to watch how your technology evolves when you can’t steal it from other countries.

当然。
当你无法从其他国家窃取技术时，观察你的技术会如何发展将会非常有趣。

Tom Mally
They could still steal technology!

他们仍然可以窃取技术！

James Lee
Yes like stealing Tiktok

是的，就像偷窃TikTok一样

Pin Yang
Wrong, that is robbery. US told China they will take Tiktok.

错误，这是抢劫。美国告诉中国，他们会接管TikTok。

Cyril Pearson
And when you need potash?. What then?.

那么当你需要钾肥时怎么办？

Paul Anderson
Well, I don’t need potash. The soils in my area are high in potassium bearing minerals. There’s enough for several centuries.
If I had soils like eastern Iowa, I might need to be applying around $1,500 worth of potash, at current prices.
I do need phosphorus at some point, and while I haven’t applied any to the field in two years, I will need to apply some in the next couple years. At current prices, that application will probably cost around $5,000. But, again, I only do that every three years or so. So it’s more like $1,700 annual cost.
There’s still profit. I can still hang on for a few years.

嗯，我不需要钾肥。我所在地区的土壤富含含钾矿物质，足够用几个世纪。
如果我的土壤像爱荷华州东部那样，按目前的价格，我可能需要施用价值约1500美元的钾肥。
我有时确实需要磷肥，虽然我已经两年没在地里施过磷了，但未来几年还是需要施一些。按目前的价格，这笔施肥大概要花5000美元。不过，我大概每三年才施一次。所以每年的成本大概是1700美元。
还有利润。我还能撑几年。

H Rao
Happy for you, Paul

为你感到高兴，保罗

Alan Hays
Hang in there Paul! Thanks for posting here and taking the time to do it. I don’t want you to fail. Has the current environment helped or harmed you?

保罗，坚持住！谢谢你抽出时间在这里发帖。我不希望你失败。现在的环境对你有帮助还是有害？

Tom Balabanov
Because you sold the Lot in the futures market before China. What is the futures for it next year?

这是因为你在中国不买之前就在期货市场上卖出了这批商品。明年它的期货价格是多少？

Paul Anderson
As of this writing, I can contract new crop (2026) delivery for $9.92 cash price at my local coop.
There’s counterparty risk with that, of course, but they’ll hedge any such contract on CBOT and the bulk of the risk is absorbed there.

截至撰写本文时，我可以在当地合作社以9.92美元的现金价格签订新作物（2026年）的合约。
当然，这存在交易对手风险，但他们会在芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）对冲此类合约，大部分风险都在那里被吸收了。

Sid Sidhu
Bisons roamed and native indians once lived on that land.I have no sympathy for the plight of american farmers,its not their land

野牛曾经在此漫游，印第安人也曾经在此居住。我对美国农民的困境毫无同情心，这不是他们的土地

Paul Anderson
Whose land do you think it should be? The Sioux, who were on it when the US army arrived? Or the Pawnee, who were on it before the Sioux drove them off? Or whoever might have been on it before the Pawnee conquered it?
All land has been conquered innumerable times in the course of human history. It belongs to the latest conquers as long as they are able to defend it. When the current owners are unable to defend it, it will belong to the next conquers.
Any other view is ignoring human history.

你认为这片土地应该属于谁？北美原住民族苏族人，美军抵达时就居住在这片土地上的人？还是波尼族人，在苏族人赶走他们之前就居住在这片土地上的人？又或者，在波尼族人征服这片土地之前，任何可能居住在这片土地上的人？
在人类历史上，所有土地都曾被征服过无数次。只要最近的征服者能够保卫它，它就属于他们。当当前的拥有者无力保卫它时，它将属于下一个征服者。
任何其他观点都是对人类历史的无视。

Martin Bayer
I feel for the dinosaurs. Those poor bastards once owned it all. Now we pump their carcasses into our gas tanks. Pray for the poor exploited dinosaurs.

我同情恐龙。这些可怜的家伙曾经拥有一切。现在我们却把它们的尸体塞进油箱里。为那些可怜的、被剥削的恐龙祈祷吧。

Sid Sidhu
So be it dont blame the Chinese and indians and africans and call them imigrants,at worst they are immigrants not murderers ,you reap what you sow

既然如此，不要责怪中国人、印度人和非洲人，不要称他们为移民。最糟糕的是，他们是移民，而不是杀人犯，所以他们不能拥有这片土地，你们种什么因得什么果。

Paul Anderson
The current conquerors have every right to defend their conquest. There’s no reason to simply hand it to the next group that wants it.

当前的征服者完全有权捍卫他们的征服成果。没有理由简单地将其拱手让给下一个想要它的群体。

Viswanath
You are asking for GENOCIDE of your people by saying this. Do you think your people will hold on to that land forever? Why does US even fundng Ukraine war? Let Russia occupy Ukraine if might is right.

你这样说是在自找麻烦，是要对你的人民进行种族灭绝。你以为你的人民会永远守住那片土地吗？美国为什么还要资助乌克兰战争？如果强权就是真理，就让俄罗斯占领乌克兰吧。

Sid Sidhu
Then it is eternal war,it will be eternal war, until the so called conqueras are expelled or destroyed or be destroyed,civilisation v barbarism,guess what 150 plus countries believe in law and order ,a few (all europeans christians dont)

那么这就是永恒的战争，这将是永恒的战争，直到所谓的征服者被驱逐或被摧毁，文明与野蛮，猜猜看，150 多个国家相信法律和秩序，少数（所有欧洲基督徒都不相信）

Lee Ramer
No, only when one country is strong enough to take over all others. My bet is on China.

不，只有当一个国家强大到足以统治所有其他国家时才会不再有战争。我看好中国。

Pete the not so Great
Well give up. You lost . If you wanna be angry be angry with your ancestors- they lost, to people who literally walked over them. I’d be pissed too- at my ancestors .

好吧，放弃吧。你输了。如果你想生气，那就生你祖先的气吧——他们输了，输给了那些践踏他们的人。我也会生气——生我祖先的气。

Sid Sidhu
Its coming its brics,no more dollars, no more oil,no more stealing asian brain,ASIA labd of the civilised

金砖国家来了，不再有美元，不再有石油，不再窃取亚洲人的大脑，亚洲是文明的实验室。