QA问答：为什么西方国家在导弹创新方面难以匹敌中国的速度和成本，这对全球军事动态有何影响？

Scott Kronstedt
OQ: Why do Western countries struggle to match China’s speed and cost in missile innovation, and how does this impact global military dynamics?
We really have no evidence of this so called “missile innovation”, all we see are mockups and test platforms. Somehow I think that a nation the has more technological innovation in place and has more invested in research than the entire Chinese military budget, just might be ahead, plus the US tends not to show off their equipment until its used in war, and that maybe many years after deployment, a situation that occurs over and over again. China, and Russia, tend to brag about stuff long before its deployable, probably for marketing purposes.

为什么西方国家在导弹创新方面难以与中国匹敌速度和成本，这对全球军事动态有何影响？
我们实际上根本没有证据证明所谓的“导弹创新”，我们看到的都只是模型和测试平台。我认为，一个在科技领域创新更多、研发投入超过整个中国军费的国家，很可能才是真正的领先者。此外，美国倾向于在武器投入实战后才公开展示，而这种情况往往是在部署多年之后才发生，这种情况一再出现。中国和俄罗斯则倾向于在技术尚未真正部署之前就“大肆吹嘘”，大概是为了营销目的。

Hypersonic weapons seem to be all the rage right now, but the US has been successfully shooting down hypersonic weapons since 1990 (little mentioned fact, the Iraqi SCUD was hypersonic). The same defensive system, the Patriot, is successfully defending Kiev from Russian Hypersonic weapons right now.

高超音速武器现在很流行，但美国自1990年以来就一直在成功拦截高超音速武器（鲜为人知的事实是，伊拉克的“飞毛腿”导弹就是高超音速的）。目前，正是“爱国者”防御系统正在成功保护基辅，以抵御俄罗斯的高超音速武器。

Hypersonic missiles have a targeting problem that is hard to overcome, and they are pretty much useless against a moving target, like an aircraft carrier.

高超音速导弹存在一个难以克服的制导难题，那就是对移动目标几乎毫无用处，比如航空母舰。

If the weapon flies in a straight line (like a SCUD) it is fairly easy to target and hit. If the weapon tries to maneuver it uses up vast amounts of fuel, a missile has limited amounts of fuel, it used a lot getting to and maintaining hypersonic speed, thus minimizing the maneuvering they can do. Then there is the problem with the weapon “seeing”, a hypersonic weapon ionizes the air its traveling through, makes it difficult for on board sensors to find its target. Without a doubt they also use inertial guidance systems, but that is only useful against a stationary target, such as a city.

如果导弹沿直线飞行（像“飞毛腿”那样），就相对容易预测轨迹并击中。但如果它试图机动，就会消耗大量燃料——而导弹的燃料本就有限，在达到并维持高超音速时已经消耗了大部分，因此其机动能力极为受限。此外，还有一个问题是导弹的“感知”能力：高超音速飞行时会使空气电离，干扰导弹上传感器对目标的探测。毫无疑问，它们也使用惯性制导系统，但这只对固定目标（如城市）有效。

So, until we see concrete proof that China has these fancy weapons, weapons that pretty much defy the laws of physics, I would put my money on the nation that has far more resources and wealth at its disposal, the US.

因此，在我们看到中国拥有这些“几乎违背物理定律”的先进武器的确凿证据之前，我会把赌注押在那个拥有更多资源和财富的国家——美国身上。

Alice Clarke
We have yet to see these missiles perform in a wartime scenario. I have no doubt they are adequate but don’t get caught up in the propaganda. Some of their equipment may be like Russia. Awful.

我们尚未看到这些导弹在实战中的表现。我并不怀疑它们具备一定能力，但不要被宣传迷惑。他们的部分装备可能和俄罗斯的一样——糟糕透顶。

Jami Shofner
China displays concepts and mock-ups, not actual tested and deployed missiles. We rarely see any videos of actual deployed Chinese missiles in action. Western countries develop missiles, verify they work, deploy them and don’t need to show them off in parades. People often forget that Western countries were deploying operational hypersonic missiles in the 1970s. After realizing that high speed was not nearly as effective as maneuverability, accuracy, and stealth, they moved on to other, newer, more advanced missile technologies.

中国展示的只是概念和模型，并非经过测试和实际部署的导弹。我们很少看到任何关于中国现役导弹实战的视频。西方国家研发导弹，验证其有效性，部署后并不需要在阅兵式上炫耀。人们常常忘记，西方国家早在1970年代就已经部署了可操作的高超音速导弹。后来他们意识到高速远不如机动性、精度和隐身性重要，于是转向了其他更新、更先进的导弹技术。

M.ZOHAN KHAN
Western countries don't necessarily "struggle" from a lack of know-how but from a system designed for different priorities (perfection, accountability, global presence) that is inherently slower and more expensive. China's state-directed, focused, and integrated model is currently optimized for rapid production of specific systems.

西方国家并非在技术上“落后”，而是其系统设计优先考虑的是完美性、问责制和全球部署，这本身就更慢、更昂贵。而中国的国家主导、目标集中、一体化的模式，目前更有利于特定系统的快速生产。

The impact is a significant shift in the military balance, particularly in Asia, forcing the West into a costly and difficult adaptation. The global military dynamic is now characterized by a race between China's advantage in mass and production speed and the West's attempt to leverage its historical advantages in technology, networking, and operational experience to develop effective countermeasures.

其影响是亚太地区军事平衡的重大转变，迫使西方陷入一场代价高昂且困难的适应过程。当前全球军事格局的特点，是中方面对西方在技术、网络化和作战经验上的传统优势，正在以量产规模和生产速度的优势展开一场竞赛。

Dan Hunter
China's rise to dominance in the global missile market stems from decades of military modernization, technological growth, competitive pricing, and a strategy of offering weapons without political strings attached to developing nations. Leveraging foreign technology acquisition, particularly via reverse-engineering and acquiring dual-use technology, combined with significant state investment, allowed China to rapidly develop its own advanced systems, including hypersonic and drone technologies. The absence of China from key international arms control treaties and its strong economic ties in regions like Africa further facilitate its market penetration. 

中国在全球导弹市场占据主导地位，源于数十年的军事现代化、技术进步、有竞争力的价格，以及向发展中国家提供“无政治附加条件”的武器战略。通过获取外国技术（特别是逆向工程和获取两用技术），加上国家的大量投资，中国迅速发展出自己的先进系统，包括高超音速导弹和无人机技术。中国未加入关键的国际军控条约，加上与非洲等地区深厚的经济联系，进一步促进了其武器的市场渗透。

①Technological Advancement & Innovation
Military-Civil Fusion: China uses its Military-Civil Fusion strategy to integrate military development with civilian technology and academia, rapidly advancing its capabilities. 
Technological Acquisition: China's defense industry has historically relied on an "absorptive model," acquiring foreign technologies and reverse-engineering them to speed up its own R&D, testing, and production. 
Advanced Systems: This approach has enabled China to develop advanced systems, including hypersonic missiles, stealth technology, and sophisticated drone technology. 

①技术进步与创新
军民融合：中国通过“军民融合”战略，将军事发展与民用科技和学术界结合，快速提升其能力。
技术获取：中国国防工业长期依赖“吸收式模式”，通过获取外国技术并逆向工程，加速自身的研发、测试和生产。
先进系统：这一模式使中国得以开发出高超音速导弹、隐身技术和先进的无人机系统。

②Strategic Market Approach
Competitive Pricing & Financing: China's weapons are offered at competitive prices and with flexible financing options, making them attractive to developing nations. 
No Political Conditions: Unlike many Western suppliers, Chinese arms exports often come with "no political strings attached," a policy of non-interference that resonates strongly in many countries, particularly in Africa & Asia. 
Broader Product Range: China offers a vast range of conventional military equipment, including missile systems, making it a comprehensive supplier for many nations. 

②战略市场策略
有竞争力的价格与融资：中国的武器价格具有竞争力，并提供灵活的融资方案，对发展中国家极具吸引力。
无政治条件：与许多西方供应商不同，中国军售通常“不附加政治条件”，这种不干涉政策在许多国家（尤其是在非州和亚州地区）深受欢迎。
产品范围广泛：中国提供从导弹系统到各类常规军事装备的完整产品线，成为许多国家的一站式军备供应商。

③Economic & Political Factors
Economic Growth: Decades of economic growth have provided the financial resources for China's extensive military modernization campaigns. 
Absence from Treaties: China's participation in international arms control regimes has been limited, particularly regarding the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which frees it from certain restrictions on missile technology exports. 
Deep Economic Ties: Strong economic and infrastructure ties, especially with African and South Asian countries, reinforce China's position as a key arms supplier and create dependencies on its weaponry. 

经济与政治因素
经济增长：数十年的经济繁荣为中国的军事现代化提供了充足资金。
未受条约限制：中国参与国际军控机制有限，特别是未加入《导弹技术控制制度》（MTCR），使其在导弹技术出口上不受某些限制。
紧密的经济联系：与中国在非洲和南亚等地强大的经济和基础设施联系，巩固了其作为关键军火供应国的地位，并形成对其武器的依赖。

Doreen Brown
Do not believe their so-called advanced missiles weapons are as powerful as the US. If there going to be another war it will be more computerized and platformization-weaponized. For which the Asian economy way more advance then we are when it come to cyber fighting. Asian & Russia are way advance then we are because we fight clean and try to be publicly correct and we have stop improving our technology and our war weapon. Yes we will still need soldier as part of our ground forces but we have to change our battle plan.

我不认为他们所谓的先进导弹武器比美国同类装备具备更大的威力。如果再爆发一场战争，那将更加依赖计算机化和武器平台化作战。在网络安全战方面，亚洲经济体比我们先进得多。亚洲和俄罗斯在这一领域远超我们，因为我们总是想“光明正大”地作战，追求公众形象正确，而我们已经停止了对技术和武器的持续改进。是的，我们仍然需要士兵作为地面部队，但我们必须改变我们的作战计划。

Generals in the military and the military in general tend to think in terms of the last war they fought. The truly modern weapons either are not yet fully developed or they are not fully recognised as weapons. Consider the use of airplanes at the start of WWI and by the end of WWII. Consider the use of battleships in WWI and how they were replaced by aircraft carriers during WWII. The same with submarines, and the modern Swedish Gotland submarines have demonstrated the ability to get close enough to a US carrier to sink it. China has announced hypersonic missiles capable of destroying a US carrier group, and built islands to set them on.But these, in spite of their improvements, are all advanced missiles weapons of the last great war fought almost a century ago.

军方高层将领乃至整个军事体系，往往习惯于用上一场战争的思维来思考问题。真正现代的武器要么尚未完全开发，要么尚未被充分认识到其作为武器的潜力。想想一战初期飞机的使用，到二战结束时的巨大变化；想想一战中战列舰的作用，以及二战中如何被航空母舰取代；潜艇也是如此，现代瑞典“哥特兰”级潜艇已证明其有能力接近美国航母并将其击沉。中国已宣布拥有可摧毁美国航母战斗群的高超音速导弹，并建造了岛屿作为部署基地。但这些先进导弹武器，尽管有所改进，本质上仍是近一个世纪前那场大战的延续。