台湾地区 “拉格萨” 台风致死事件：天灾之怒还是人祸之愚？
Taiwan’s Ragasa Deaths: Nature’s Wrath or Man-made Folly?
译文简介
超强台风 “拉格萨”（Ragasa） 在重创中国华南地区前，仅擦过台湾岛，却已造成 17 人以上死亡。究竟发生了什么？- Angelica Oung 2025 年 9 月 25 日
正文翻译
Super-typhoon Ragasa barely skimmed Taiwan before slamming into Southern China. Yet 17+ people died. What happened?
超强台风 “桦加沙”（Ragasa） 在重创中国华南地区前，仅擦过台湾岛，却已造成 17 人以上死亡。究竟发生了什么？- Angelica Oung 2025 年 9 月 25 日
I was absolutely shocked when I heard that 17+ people perished in Typhoon Ragasa three days ago. Taiwan was not even in the Super-typhoon’s direct path. It turns out all the death were isolated in one township in Hualien, where a “barrier lake” left by previous storms and landslides burst, flooding the remote community with at terrifying flood that’s been described as a “tsunami in the mountains.”
三天前听闻有 17 人以上在 “桦加沙” 台风中丧生时，我深感震惊。要知道，台湾岛并非这场超强台风的直接路径所经之地。事后查明，所有遇难者均集中在花莲县的一个乡镇 —— 此前台风和山体滑坡形成的 “堰塞湖” 发生溃决，汹涌洪水侵袭了这个偏远社区，这场灾难被形容为 “山中海啸”。
The true tragedy is that the danger from the swelling Matai’an Creek barrier lake was already well-understood. How is it possible, then, that so many people perished in Guangfu Township right downstream and squarely in the evacuation zone?
真正的悲剧在于，马太鞍溪堰塞湖水位上涨所带来的危险早已是众所周知的事实。那么，为何下游处于疏散区内的光复乡仍有如此多民众遇难？
Living under a ticking time bomb
生活在 “定时炸弹” 之下
A barrier “lake” is really a body of water formed when a landslide or debris blocks a river. As you might expect, this is a highly unstable body of water and a big-enough barrier lake is a hazard both to clear or to leave alone. And they happen all the time in mountainous and typhoon-prone Taiwan.
所谓 “堰塞湖”，实则是山体滑坡或碎石堵塞河道后形成的水体。可想而知，这类水体极不稳定，规模较大的堰塞湖无论放任不管还是主动清理，都存在巨大风险。而在多山且台风频发的台湾（地区），此类现象屡见不鲜。
The Matai’an Creek barrier lake was flagged for concern in mid-July by the Ministry of Agriculture, which predicted at the time that it would be breached by mid-October. By August, it was enough of a concern that KMT Caucus Whip Fu Kun-chi raised the issue in parliament, saying that it cannot wait for another day, while the Ministry of Agriculture maintained that it was not yet an immediate concern.
早在 7 月中旬，台湾农业事务主管部门就已对马太鞍溪堰塞湖发出预警，并预测其可能在 10 月中旬发生溃决。到了 8 月，该问题已引发高度关注，中国国民党党团总召集人傅崐萁在立法机构中提及此事，强调 “此事刻不容缓”，但农业事务主管部门却坚称 “目前尚无即刻风险”。
40 days later, Ragasa-related rainfall triggered 3/4 of the water in the barrier lake to be dumped over Guangfu Township. There’s fierce argument over whether it’s an actual breach of the banks or just an overflow, but either way, the damage is done. In addition to the 17 confirmed dead, there are 17 people still missing.
40 天后，“桦加沙” 台风带来的降雨导致堰塞湖四分之三的水量倾泻至光复乡。目前各方仍在激烈争论这属于 “堤坝实际溃决” 还是 “单纯溢洪”，但无论如何，灾难已然造成。除 17 名确认遇难者外，仍有 17 人失踪。
Civil engineer and former KMT Minister of the Interior Lee Hong-yuan formed a task force to study the problem. It’s simply not possible to drain or blast the lake due to its location. Instead it should be carefully monitored and residents evacuated when a breach of the banks seemed likely.
土木工程师、前中国国民党籍台湾（地区）内务部门负责人李鸿源已成立专项小组研究该问题。由于堰塞湖地理位置特殊，无法通过排水或爆破方式处理，唯一可行的办法是对其进行严密监测，并在堤坝可能溃决时及时疏散民众。
The Typhoon Blame Game
台风过后的 “追责游戏”
In the wake of the devastation, there’s been a lot of finger pointing and mutual recrimination, mainly between the KMT/Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) supporters who blamed the central government and its bodies like the Ministry of Agriculture and the Water Resources Agency (WRA) for not taking the problem seriously and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters who blame the KMT-controlled Hualien local government for not evacuating the affected area properly.
灾难过后，各方相互指责、推诿责任的戏码愈演愈烈，主要分歧存在于两大阵营：中国国民党与台湾（地区）民众党的支持者将矛头指向台湾（地区）当局及农业事务主管部门、水利部门等机构，认为它们对堰塞湖风险重视不足；而民进党支持者则指责由国民党掌控的花莲县地方政府未能妥善疏散受影响区域民众。
DPP legislator Wang Ting-yu caused a furor when leaked chats showed him workshopping with staffers the best way to shape the narrative in the wake of the disaster.
民进党籍民意代表王定宇陷入舆论风波 —— 外泄的聊天记录显示，灾难发生后，他曾与幕僚商议如何 “构建舆论叙事”。
“I suggest we go through the media and third parties to send a clarifying and damaging message, to enable our supporters, legislators and government officials to hit back more effectively, such as the below,” he wrote, lixing to a meme that blames Hualien local authorities for not evacuating the victims in time.
“建议通过媒体和第三方渠道发布澄清信息及攻击性言论，让我们的支持者、民意代表和官员能更有效地反击，例如以下内容，” 他在消息中写道，并附带了一张指责花莲地方当局未及时疏散民众的图片。
Leaked text from a DPP legislative Line group: poor OpSec! They’re not even using Signal!
从民进党民意代表 Line 群组外泄的文字记录可见：信息安全意识极差！他们甚至都不用 Signal！
“Vertical evacuation” and its consequences
“垂直疏散” 及其后果
An anonymous frontline worker at the county wrote online that after the attacks on the evacuations, “my heart is so cold I am thinking of leaving Taiwan.”
一位不愿具名的花莲县一线工作人员在网上发文称，在遭遇对疏散工作的诸多指责后，“我心已寒，甚至想离开台湾”。
“Our orders from the [Ministry of Agriculture] keep getting revised. The final notice suggested evacuating 600 people only. The County government started evacuations on its own initiative on 9/21, and the confirmed evacuation order from the central government wasn’t until the night of the 21st. To evacuate 8,000 people overnight…we are not magic spirits.”
“农业事务主管部门的指令一改再改，最终通知仅建议疏散 600 人。县政府在 9 月 21 日主动启动疏散工作，而台湾地区当局的正式疏散令直到 21 日夜间才下达。要在一夜之间疏散 8000 人…… 我们又不是神仙。”
The evacuation effort was further hampered by a new rule that home owners with a building above the ground floor gets to “vertically evacuate” by staying in the upper story of their house. “There’s no mandatory evacuation as long as there is an upper story. And do you really think the people would obediently listen to our advice?”
疏散工作还因一项新规受阻：只要房屋有地上楼层，业主即可通过 “垂直疏散” 留在自家房屋的高层。“只要有上层楼层，就不强制疏散。况且，你觉得民众会乖乖听从我们的建议吗？”
“Our efforts were pilloried so thoroughly on the internet today, I started drinking as soon as I got off work. Please do not blame us. We tried our best. All the brothers on the frontline…our hearts are all cold.”
“今天我们在网上遭到了铺天盖地的指责，下班回家后我就开始喝酒。求求大家别再责怪我们了，我们已经尽了最大努力。所有一线的同事…… 大家心里都凉透了。”
What is to be done?
该何去何从？
After barely sliding by Taiwan, Typhoon Ragasa slammed into Hong Kong, Macau and Shenzhen. Despite the fact that they got the direct hit, nobody died. Residents in Macau are catching fish in the flooded streets. Hong Kongers are spreading viral clips of flooded hotel lobbies. The people of Shenzhen seems to have used the occasion to have an epic sleepover in well-appointed shelters complete with movies and hot food.
“桦加沙” 台风仅擦过台湾岛，便重创了香港、澳门和深圳。尽管这些地区遭受了台风正面袭击，却无一人死亡。澳门民众在被淹的街道上捕鱼；香港市民分享着酒店大堂被淹的热门视频；深圳市民则在设施完善的避难所里度过了一段特殊时光 —— 避难所内不仅有电影可看，还提供热食。
It’s ironic that prior to the disaster, Taiwanese netizens online were caustically expecting greater damage from Ragasa in China and Hong Kong. Their expectations of disaster relief are still shaped by past calamities like the 2008 Sichuan earthquake. They don’t seem to realize that somewhere along the way, disaster relief has improved in China, while here in Taiwan, everything appears to be the same as it ever was.
颇具讽刺意味的是，灾难发生前，台湾地区有网友曾在网上尖刻地预测 “桦加沙” 会给大陆和香港造成更严重的损失。他们对救灾工作的认知，仍停留在 2008 年汶川地震等过去灾难的印象中。他们似乎没有意识到，这些年来大陆的救灾能力已大幅提升，而台湾的救灾状况却仿佛一直停滞不前。
An unfortunately typical comment from Taiwanese netizens before disaster struck: “Super lucky the typhoon is not coming to Taiwan. God bless Hong Kong. So…China people, it’s over to you!”
灾难发生前，一位台湾（地区）网友的评论颇具代表性，也令人遗憾：“幸好台风不来台湾（地区），老天保佑香港（特区）。那么…… 大陆人，该你们遭殃了！”
In addition to the deaths, shelters appear to be woefully underprepared. Volunteers from local non-profits reported that hundreds of people were crowded into shelters without pillows and blankets, with the “elderly curled in the corners while the children lying on the bare floors.” If those are the shelter conditions, maybe that’s part of why local residents were reluctant to evacuate.
除人员伤亡外，台湾（地区）的避难所准备也严重不足。当地非营利组织的志愿者表示，数百人挤在避难所内，既没有枕头也没有毯子，“老人蜷缩在角落，孩子则躺在光秃秃的地板上”。若避难所条件如此糟糕，或许这也是当地民众不愿疏散的原因之一。
Partisan blame: “Are the people of Hualien innocent? No. They know everything. They choose to live like this don’t they?”
党派指责声中，甚至出现了这样的言论：“花莲人就无辜吗？不，他们什么都知道，却偏偏选择这样的生活，不是吗？”
Lost in the partisan finger pointing is the real issue: Disaster relief in Taiwan doesn’t seem to work as a system. Different agencies and administrations have different areas of responsibilities and they don’t seem to be communicating well and tend to worry more about completing their assign tasks rather than make sure the overall effort is successful.
在党派间的相互指责中，真正核心的问题被忽略了：台湾（地区）的救灾体系根本无法有效运转。不同机构和部门各有职责范围，彼此沟通不畅，且往往只关注完成自身分配的任务，而非确保整体救灾工作的成功。
It’s not about who dropped the ball. It’s about figuring out how everyone can work together as a team before disaster strikes again.
问题的关键不在于 “谁犯了错”，而在于如何让所有人在灾难再次来临前，学会团结协作、共同应对。
超强台风 “桦加沙”（Ragasa） 在重创中国华南地区前，仅擦过台湾岛，却已造成 17 人以上死亡。究竟发生了什么？- Angelica Oung 2025 年 9 月 25 日
I was absolutely shocked when I heard that 17+ people perished in Typhoon Ragasa three days ago. Taiwan was not even in the Super-typhoon’s direct path. It turns out all the death were isolated in one township in Hualien, where a “barrier lake” left by previous storms and landslides burst, flooding the remote community with at terrifying flood that’s been described as a “tsunami in the mountains.”
三天前听闻有 17 人以上在 “桦加沙” 台风中丧生时，我深感震惊。要知道，台湾岛并非这场超强台风的直接路径所经之地。事后查明，所有遇难者均集中在花莲县的一个乡镇 —— 此前台风和山体滑坡形成的 “堰塞湖” 发生溃决，汹涌洪水侵袭了这个偏远社区，这场灾难被形容为 “山中海啸”。
The true tragedy is that the danger from the swelling Matai’an Creek barrier lake was already well-understood. How is it possible, then, that so many people perished in Guangfu Township right downstream and squarely in the evacuation zone?
真正的悲剧在于，马太鞍溪堰塞湖水位上涨所带来的危险早已是众所周知的事实。那么，为何下游处于疏散区内的光复乡仍有如此多民众遇难？
Living under a ticking time bomb
生活在 “定时炸弹” 之下
A barrier “lake” is really a body of water formed when a landslide or debris blocks a river. As you might expect, this is a highly unstable body of water and a big-enough barrier lake is a hazard both to clear or to leave alone. And they happen all the time in mountainous and typhoon-prone Taiwan.
所谓 “堰塞湖”，实则是山体滑坡或碎石堵塞河道后形成的水体。可想而知，这类水体极不稳定，规模较大的堰塞湖无论放任不管还是主动清理，都存在巨大风险。而在多山且台风频发的台湾（地区），此类现象屡见不鲜。
The Matai’an Creek barrier lake was flagged for concern in mid-July by the Ministry of Agriculture, which predicted at the time that it would be breached by mid-October. By August, it was enough of a concern that KMT Caucus Whip Fu Kun-chi raised the issue in parliament, saying that it cannot wait for another day, while the Ministry of Agriculture maintained that it was not yet an immediate concern.
早在 7 月中旬，台湾农业事务主管部门就已对马太鞍溪堰塞湖发出预警，并预测其可能在 10 月中旬发生溃决。到了 8 月，该问题已引发高度关注，中国国民党党团总召集人傅崐萁在立法机构中提及此事，强调 “此事刻不容缓”，但农业事务主管部门却坚称 “目前尚无即刻风险”。
40 days later, Ragasa-related rainfall triggered 3/4 of the water in the barrier lake to be dumped over Guangfu Township. There’s fierce argument over whether it’s an actual breach of the banks or just an overflow, but either way, the damage is done. In addition to the 17 confirmed dead, there are 17 people still missing.
40 天后，“桦加沙” 台风带来的降雨导致堰塞湖四分之三的水量倾泻至光复乡。目前各方仍在激烈争论这属于 “堤坝实际溃决” 还是 “单纯溢洪”，但无论如何，灾难已然造成。除 17 名确认遇难者外，仍有 17 人失踪。
Civil engineer and former KMT Minister of the Interior Lee Hong-yuan formed a task force to study the problem. It’s simply not possible to drain or blast the lake due to its location. Instead it should be carefully monitored and residents evacuated when a breach of the banks seemed likely.
土木工程师、前中国国民党籍台湾（地区）内务部门负责人李鸿源已成立专项小组研究该问题。由于堰塞湖地理位置特殊，无法通过排水或爆破方式处理，唯一可行的办法是对其进行严密监测，并在堤坝可能溃决时及时疏散民众。
The Typhoon Blame Game
台风过后的 “追责游戏”
In the wake of the devastation, there’s been a lot of finger pointing and mutual recrimination, mainly between the KMT/Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) supporters who blamed the central government and its bodies like the Ministry of Agriculture and the Water Resources Agency (WRA) for not taking the problem seriously and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters who blame the KMT-controlled Hualien local government for not evacuating the affected area properly.
灾难过后，各方相互指责、推诿责任的戏码愈演愈烈，主要分歧存在于两大阵营：中国国民党与台湾（地区）民众党的支持者将矛头指向台湾（地区）当局及农业事务主管部门、水利部门等机构，认为它们对堰塞湖风险重视不足；而民进党支持者则指责由国民党掌控的花莲县地方政府未能妥善疏散受影响区域民众。
DPP legislator Wang Ting-yu caused a furor when leaked chats showed him workshopping with staffers the best way to shape the narrative in the wake of the disaster.
民进党籍民意代表王定宇陷入舆论风波 —— 外泄的聊天记录显示，灾难发生后，他曾与幕僚商议如何 “构建舆论叙事”。
“I suggest we go through the media and third parties to send a clarifying and damaging message, to enable our supporters, legislators and government officials to hit back more effectively, such as the below,” he wrote, lixing to a meme that blames Hualien local authorities for not evacuating the victims in time.
“建议通过媒体和第三方渠道发布澄清信息及攻击性言论，让我们的支持者、民意代表和官员能更有效地反击，例如以下内容，” 他在消息中写道，并附带了一张指责花莲地方当局未及时疏散民众的图片。
Leaked text from a DPP legislative Line group: poor OpSec! They’re not even using Signal!
从民进党民意代表 Line 群组外泄的文字记录可见：信息安全意识极差！他们甚至都不用 Signal！
“Vertical evacuation” and its consequences
“垂直疏散” 及其后果
An anonymous frontline worker at the county wrote online that after the attacks on the evacuations, “my heart is so cold I am thinking of leaving Taiwan.”
一位不愿具名的花莲县一线工作人员在网上发文称，在遭遇对疏散工作的诸多指责后，“我心已寒，甚至想离开台湾”。
“Our orders from the [Ministry of Agriculture] keep getting revised. The final notice suggested evacuating 600 people only. The County government started evacuations on its own initiative on 9/21, and the confirmed evacuation order from the central government wasn’t until the night of the 21st. To evacuate 8,000 people overnight…we are not magic spirits.”
“农业事务主管部门的指令一改再改，最终通知仅建议疏散 600 人。县政府在 9 月 21 日主动启动疏散工作，而台湾地区当局的正式疏散令直到 21 日夜间才下达。要在一夜之间疏散 8000 人…… 我们又不是神仙。”
The evacuation effort was further hampered by a new rule that home owners with a building above the ground floor gets to “vertically evacuate” by staying in the upper story of their house. “There’s no mandatory evacuation as long as there is an upper story. And do you really think the people would obediently listen to our advice?”
疏散工作还因一项新规受阻：只要房屋有地上楼层，业主即可通过 “垂直疏散” 留在自家房屋的高层。“只要有上层楼层，就不强制疏散。况且，你觉得民众会乖乖听从我们的建议吗？”
“Our efforts were pilloried so thoroughly on the internet today, I started drinking as soon as I got off work. Please do not blame us. We tried our best. All the brothers on the frontline…our hearts are all cold.”
“今天我们在网上遭到了铺天盖地的指责，下班回家后我就开始喝酒。求求大家别再责怪我们了，我们已经尽了最大努力。所有一线的同事…… 大家心里都凉透了。”
What is to be done?
该何去何从？
After barely sliding by Taiwan, Typhoon Ragasa slammed into Hong Kong, Macau and Shenzhen. Despite the fact that they got the direct hit, nobody died. Residents in Macau are catching fish in the flooded streets. Hong Kongers are spreading viral clips of flooded hotel lobbies. The people of Shenzhen seems to have used the occasion to have an epic sleepover in well-appointed shelters complete with movies and hot food.
“桦加沙” 台风仅擦过台湾岛，便重创了香港、澳门和深圳。尽管这些地区遭受了台风正面袭击，却无一人死亡。澳门民众在被淹的街道上捕鱼；香港市民分享着酒店大堂被淹的热门视频；深圳市民则在设施完善的避难所里度过了一段特殊时光 —— 避难所内不仅有电影可看，还提供热食。
It’s ironic that prior to the disaster, Taiwanese netizens online were caustically expecting greater damage from Ragasa in China and Hong Kong. Their expectations of disaster relief are still shaped by past calamities like the 2008 Sichuan earthquake. They don’t seem to realize that somewhere along the way, disaster relief has improved in China, while here in Taiwan, everything appears to be the same as it ever was.
颇具讽刺意味的是，灾难发生前，台湾地区有网友曾在网上尖刻地预测 “桦加沙” 会给大陆和香港造成更严重的损失。他们对救灾工作的认知，仍停留在 2008 年汶川地震等过去灾难的印象中。他们似乎没有意识到，这些年来大陆的救灾能力已大幅提升，而台湾的救灾状况却仿佛一直停滞不前。
An unfortunately typical comment from Taiwanese netizens before disaster struck: “Super lucky the typhoon is not coming to Taiwan. God bless Hong Kong. So…China people, it’s over to you!”
灾难发生前，一位台湾（地区）网友的评论颇具代表性，也令人遗憾：“幸好台风不来台湾（地区），老天保佑香港（特区）。那么…… 大陆人，该你们遭殃了！”
In addition to the deaths, shelters appear to be woefully underprepared. Volunteers from local non-profits reported that hundreds of people were crowded into shelters without pillows and blankets, with the “elderly curled in the corners while the children lying on the bare floors.” If those are the shelter conditions, maybe that’s part of why local residents were reluctant to evacuate.
除人员伤亡外，台湾（地区）的避难所准备也严重不足。当地非营利组织的志愿者表示，数百人挤在避难所内，既没有枕头也没有毯子，“老人蜷缩在角落，孩子则躺在光秃秃的地板上”。若避难所条件如此糟糕，或许这也是当地民众不愿疏散的原因之一。
Partisan blame: “Are the people of Hualien innocent? No. They know everything. They choose to live like this don’t they?”
党派指责声中，甚至出现了这样的言论：“花莲人就无辜吗？不，他们什么都知道，却偏偏选择这样的生活，不是吗？”
Lost in the partisan finger pointing is the real issue: Disaster relief in Taiwan doesn’t seem to work as a system. Different agencies and administrations have different areas of responsibilities and they don’t seem to be communicating well and tend to worry more about completing their assign tasks rather than make sure the overall effort is successful.
在党派间的相互指责中，真正核心的问题被忽略了：台湾（地区）的救灾体系根本无法有效运转。不同机构和部门各有职责范围，彼此沟通不畅，且往往只关注完成自身分配的任务，而非确保整体救灾工作的成功。
It’s not about who dropped the ball. It’s about figuring out how everyone can work together as a team before disaster strikes again.
问题的关键不在于 “谁犯了错”，而在于如何让所有人在灾难再次来临前，学会团结协作、共同应对。
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这绝对是一场悲剧。但如果台湾地区民众的政治化程度已深到将持不同政见者视为 “该死的牲畜”，那么台湾一定是出了非常非常严重的问题。
Sara K. I have visited Guangfu, and I recall many Amis live there. I remember seeing a photo of former President Ma Yingjeou making a formal visit to the Amis in Guangfu. Generally, parts of Taiwan with a relatively high Indigenous population are more prone to natural disasters for various geographical/historical/social reasons. I don't know how that affects this particular situation, but I can imagine a few possibilities. People in the central government may be less interested in solving this problem (addressing the barrier lake with engineering, building high-quality shelters) due to prejudice. Amis may be more reluctant to evacuate their homes than non-Indigenous people. IIRC, a high percentage of the non-Indigenous people who live in rural Hualien are Hakka, so prejudice against them may also play a role.
我曾去过光复乡，记得那里居住着许多阿美族人。我还看过前台湾地区领导人马英九正式走访光复乡阿美族部落的照片。总体而言，台湾原住民人口比例较高的地区，因地理、历史、社会等多种因素，更容易遭受自然灾害。我不知道这一情况对此次事件有何具体影响，但能想到几种可能性：台湾地区当局可能因偏见，对解决堰塞湖问题（如通过工程手段治理堰塞湖、建设高质量避难所）缺乏兴趣；阿美族人或许比非原住民更不愿撤离家园。另外，我记得在花莲县农村地区居住的非原住民中，客家人比例较高，因此对客家人的偏见也可能在其中起到了一定作用。
James Hook Thank you Angelica for this reportage. I don’t find this level of insight elsewhere. Sadly it really does reflect something “deeply deeply wrong in Taiwan”. Hopefully folks will wake up.
感谢安吉丽卡的这篇报道，我在其他地方看不到如此深刻的分析。遗憾的是，这确实反映出 “台湾地区存在非常严重的问题”。希望民众能幡然醒悟。
CigEnjoyer What a fucking shitshow
简直是一团糟！