中国每年在发展中国家的绿色能源投资近2500亿美元,经通胀调整后,如今已与美国二战后的马歇尔计划规模相当。
At almost $250 billion a year, China's green energy investments in the developing world are now the equal of the US's post-WW2 Marshall Plan, adjusted for inflation.
译文简介
中国绿色能源投资与全球能源转型相关讨论。
正文翻译
Pakistan, which has for years treated gas generation as the backbone of its power network, has been asking suppliers to defer shipments of liquefied natural gas after a surge of solar imports suppressed grid demand. Saudi Arabia is facing one of the fastest declines in petroleum usage anywhere as photovoltaic farms replace fuel oil generators.
巴基斯坦多年来一直将天然气发电视为其电网的支柱,但在太阳能设备进口激增导致电网需求下降后,该国已要求供应商推迟液化天然气的运输。沙特阿拉伯正面临全球范围内石油使用率下降最快的情况之一,因为光伏电站正在取代燃油发电机。
Analysts are talking about a supply glut of oil for 2025/26 lowering oil prices. Are we finally at the point oil use is going to start declining? Fingers crossed, let's hope so.
分析师们认为,2025至2026年期间石油供应过剩将压低油价。我们是否终于迎来石油使用量开始下降的拐点?愿好运降临,我们都希望如此。
Meanwhile, China is almost single-handedly building the world's replacement.
与此同时,几乎是中国单方面在为世界构建能源替代体系。
China’s Marshall Plan is running on batteries: Beijing’s green energy projects are bringing jobs, growth and cheap electricity to the developing world
中国版“马歇尔计划”靠“电池”驱动:中国政府的绿色能源项目正为发展中国家带来就业机会、经济增长与廉价电力。
巴基斯坦多年来一直将天然气发电视为其电网的支柱,但在太阳能设备进口激增导致电网需求下降后,该国已要求供应商推迟液化天然气的运输。沙特阿拉伯正面临全球范围内石油使用率下降最快的情况之一,因为光伏电站正在取代燃油发电机。
Analysts are talking about a supply glut of oil for 2025/26 lowering oil prices. Are we finally at the point oil use is going to start declining? Fingers crossed, let's hope so.
分析师们认为,2025至2026年期间石油供应过剩将压低油价。我们是否终于迎来石油使用量开始下降的拐点?愿好运降临,我们都希望如此。
Meanwhile, China is almost single-handedly building the world's replacement.
与此同时,几乎是中国单方面在为世界构建能源替代体系。
China’s Marshall Plan is running on batteries: Beijing’s green energy projects are bringing jobs, growth and cheap electricity to the developing world
中国版“马歇尔计划”靠“电池”驱动:中国政府的绿色能源项目正为发展中国家带来就业机会、经济增长与廉价电力。
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The entire western world really dropped the fucking ball on transitioning to the technologies of the 21st century. Too much money in politics from people who earn their money in 20th century technologies.
整个西方世界在向21世纪技术转型的过程中,确实搞砸了。政界有太多资金来自那些靠20世纪技术赚钱的人。
Harbinger2nd
They're really not doing 'capitalism is the most efficient means of distributing resources' arguments any favors.
他们这番言论,对“资本主义是资源配置最高效方式”的论调毫无帮助。
StoreImportant5685
You forgot the silent part:'capitalism is the most efficient means of distributing resources to those having the most resources.'
你漏了没说出口的那半句:“资本主义是将资源配置给资源最多者的最高效方式。”
cbbbluedevil
In this case efficiency just means profitable
在这种情况下,“高效”说白了就是“能盈利”。
Rameez_Raja
The problem was we weren't capitalisming hard enough. Just wait till the G7 countries adopt the Milei model.
问题在于我们的“资本主义”践行得还不够彻底。等着瞧吧,等G7国家采用米莱模式就知道了。
JJiggy13
Capitalism is about controlling the capital. Whoever has the most capital wins. It has nothing to do with resources, distribution, a market, etc etc
资本主义的核心是掌控资本。谁拥有最多资本,谁就是赢家。这与资源、资源配置、市场等毫无关系。
Tupcek
that’s mostly because capitalism was put aside, so that people from old industries can make the money. All hail the regulators!In free market, fossil fuels no longer stand a chance.
这主要是因为资本主义被束之高阁了,好让传统行业的人继续赚钱。向监管者致敬吧!在自由市场中,化石燃料早已没有立足之地。
APRengar
True capitalism worked, what we have now is crony capitalism.What's to stop true capitalism from becoming crony capitalism? Seems like we needed regulations to stop that... regulations which would prevent "true capitalism" from being "true capitalism". Otherwise, of course, money means power and power means power concentration is inevitable.
真正的资本主义是有效的,我们现在所处的是裙带资本主义。可谁能阻止真正的资本主义演变成裙带资本主义呢?似乎我们需要监管来遏制这种情况……但这些监管又会让“真正的资本主义”不再是“真正的资本主义”。否则,金钱必然意味着权力,而权力集中也将不可避免。
Edit: I also love when people talk about how "Actually capitalism kicks ass" in a thread about how China's federal investment program is just as good as America's old federal investment program. Seems like when we don't just let capitalists do whatever the fuck, and we have a very strong plan from the government to achieve something, things get better.
补充一点:我觉得很有意思的是,在一个讨论中国政府投资计划堪比美国昔日政府投资计划的帖子里,居然有人说“其实资本主义超厉害”。显然,当我们不任由资本家为所欲为,且政府制定强有力的计划去实现某个目标时,事情就会往好的方向发展。
Guardianpigeon
Even the guy a lot of people consider the "father of capitalism" was pro-regulation, so I can kind of understand where those people were coming from.
即便是很多人眼中的“资本主义之父”,也支持监管,所以我多少能理解那些人的出发点。
That said the point that anyone to the left of capitalism tries to get across is that no matter how regulated capitalism is, its prone to falling into "crony" capitalism because the accumulation of wealth gives people too much power over the government in that kind of society. They almost destroyed it back during the Great Depression, then a health dose of socialist policy saved it. Now we have undone all those policies and we are falling right back into another inevitable depression. Both times it was the fault of the ultra rich and their unchecked power. Capitalism creates those people inherently, so you can't really avoid the trap unless you become mostly socialist anyway.
话虽如此,所有持资本主义左翼观点的人都想表达的一点是:无论资本主义监管得多严格,它都容易陷入“裙带资本主义”,因为在这样的社会里,财富积累会让人们对政府拥有过大的影响力。大萧条时期,他们差点就摧毁了资本主义,后来是一系列社会主义政策挽救了它。如今我们废除了所有这些政策,便又不可避免地滑向另一场大萧条。这两次危机的罪魁祸首,都是那些超级富豪及其不受约束的权力。资本主义本质上会造就这类人,所以除非社会在很大程度上转向社会主义,否则根本无法避开这个陷阱。
suguiyama
The real mistake was believing the free market is achievable despite the mountain of evidence to the contrary.
真正的错误在于,尽管有大量证据与之相悖,人们仍坚信自由市场是可以实现的。
not_your_pal
Capitalism was absolutely not set aside. Capitalism is the economic system that we have. Just because it doesn't work the same as you thought it did on paper compared to in practice, doesn't mean it is something else.
资本主义根本没有被束之高阁。我们当前的经济体系就是资本主义。不能因为它在实践中的运作方式和你在理论上设想的不一样,就说它是另一种体系。
Tupcek
a) overrregulate market with intention of killing it b) complain that market doesn’t work Great logic!
“先是过度监管市场,意图扼杀它;接着又抱怨市场不起作用。”这逻辑可真“厉害”!
West-Abalone-171
Free markets are an anathema to capitalism.Market failure and regulatory capture are inherent features of capitalism and can only be avoided with non-capitalist features of an organisational system.
自由市场与资本主义是相悖的。市场失灵和监管俘获是资本主义的固有特征,只有借助非资本主义的组织体系特征,才能避免这些问题。
hustle_magic
Proving the adage correct once again “In China the government controls the billionaires, in America the billionaires control the government.”
这再次印证了那句格言:“在中国,是政府管控亿万富豪;而在美国,是亿万富豪操控政府。”
Least_Expert840
Let me put on my tinfoil hat for a minute:The US depends on the world's demand for dollars, and for a long time there has been only one universal way to force the world to demand it: by forcing energy trading to happen in USD. This forces everyone to acquire those dollars and then exchange them for energy --- because it sits at the base of civilization.
容我戴上“阴谋论帽子”说几句:美国的经济依赖全球对美元的需求,长期以来,迫使全球对美元产生需求的唯一通用手段,就是强制能源交易以美元结算。这就迫使各国不得不获取美元,再用美元购买能源因为能源是文明的基石。
Turns out energy meant oil. So there has never been a will for the US to change that, quite the contrary.
而过去,能源就等同于石油。所以美国根本没有意愿去改变这一现状,反而会极力维持。
So that's why energy independence from hydrocarbons is not just about a lost opportunity: it means the US is losing control over the world and its own debt. They know it, and what we are seeing lately is just a move to deal with the consequences of that.
因此,摆脱对碳氢化合物的能源依赖,不仅仅是错失机遇那么简单:这意味着美国正在失去对世界和自身债务的控制权。他们很清楚这一点,我们最近看到的种种情况,不过是在应对这一局面引发的后果。
KR4T0S
There's a sunken cost fallacy at work here too I feel, we have thrown and continue to throw so much at fossil fuels that we dont want to go back on it so we continue to beat a dead horse. Many other nations treat it as something that is only to be used when there is no substitute. I do think overall we should be happy about the situation though, climate change is a global issue. If we were in a situation in which we were pumping more carbon into the air we would all be screwed. The fact that we seem to be on target to maintain or even reduce global emissions despite the attack on renewables in some parts of the world is a major triumph in what was looking like a bad year. We somehow pulled a rabbit out of the hat, this year isnt a total bust so far.
我觉得这里还存在一种沉没成本谬误:我们在化石燃料上投入了大量资金,而且还在持续投入,以至于不愿放弃,只能继续做无用功。许多其他国家则将化石燃料视为“无替代方案时才使用的能源”。不过总的来说,我认为我们应该对目前的形势感到欣慰,毕竟气候变化是全球性问题。如果现在我们还在向大气中排放更多二氧化碳,那所有人都会陷入困境。尽管世界部分地区仍在阻挠可再生能源发展,但全球排放量似乎仍有望保持稳定甚至下降,这在原本看似糟糕的一年里,无疑是一场重大胜利。我们总算“绝处逢生”,今年到目前为止还不算完全白费。
TheWhiteManticore
The west will soon gets a taste of China’s hundred year of humiliation. The sheer hubris once caused this came back around again but it rhymes.
西方很快就要品尝中国曾经历的“百年屈辱”了。曾经导致屈辱的那种狂妄自大,如今又以类似的方式重现了。
PandaCheese2016
I don't think it'll be comparable though. Foreign powers are not looking to carve out colonial zones in the West for one. At worst it's just going to be a gradual closing in living standards gap between the West and the rest of the world.
但我认为情况不会完全雷同。一方面,外国势力并不打算在西方划分殖民区域。最糟糕的情况,也不过是西方与世界其他地区的生活水平差距逐渐缩小。
Impressive-Dog468
USA just could not leave behind its love for oil and its control over world economy.
美国就是无法割舍对石油的依赖,也无法放弃通过石油掌控世界经济的野心。
silverionmox
The entire western world really dropped the fucking ball on transitioning to the technologies of the 21st century. Too much money in politics from people who earn their money in 20th century technologies.
整个西方世界在向21世纪技术转型的过程中,确实搞砸了。政界有太多资金来自那些靠20世纪技术赚钱的人。
jert3
It is solely because the monopoly/money power of the fossil fuel companies, much of it legacy wealth. They are rich enough to make it as difficult as possible to shift to green energy, in order to protect their profits.
这完全是因为化石燃料公司的垄断势力和资金实力,其中很多还是家族遗留财富。为了保护自身利润,他们有足够的财力让绿色能源转型之路变得尽可能艰难。
Glad at least China is leading the way, putting rational sense above the profit motive of a few dozen billionaires. A green energy transistion would be a huge boon to the economy generally, but hurt the profits of those few monopoly-monied in power.
幸好至少有中国在引领方向,将理性判断置于少数亿万富豪的逐利动机之上。绿色能源转型总体上会给经济带来巨大推动,但会损害那些手握垄断资本、掌握权力者的利润。
roylennigan
High energy-density battery development and production is the biggest one. China has majority ownership of rare earth element mines around the world and they do 70% of world production of those elements into lithium-ion batteries.
高能量密度电池的研发与生产是重中之重。中国拥有全球大部分稀土矿的所有权,且承担了全球70%的稀土加工产能,这些稀土主要用于生产锂离子电池。
edit: another major use of rare earth minerals is for permanent magnets, which are used in electric motor/generators and other power electronics.
补充:稀土矿物的另一大重要用途是制造永磁体,永磁体广泛应用于电动机/发电机及其他电力电子设备中。
CaptainMagnets
Yup, the west will be begging China for these technologies soon enough
没错,用不了多久,西方就得求着中国要这些技术了。
yyytobyyy
The entire western world...
“整个西方世界都搞砸了……”
Meanwhile EU being only global entity which actually regularly lowers it's CO2 emissions.
可欧盟明明是全球唯一能持续降低二氧化碳排放量的国际组织啊。
StarCraft
It is wild to realize how China is driving the energy revolution against oil
意识到中国正在引领一场对抗石油的能源革命,真是令人惊叹。
RazerPSN
Because they’re smart, they realize it’s cheaper and they can lower the dependency on other countries for energy
因为他们很明智,意识到绿色能源成本更低,而且能降低对其他国家的能源依赖。
Dracomortua
They are still building mega coal plants but many brand new ones only get to 20% capacity (baseload suppliers) before solar and grid-batteries catch up.
中国仍在建设大型燃煤电厂,但许多新建电厂在太阳能和电网储能技术赶上之前,产能利用率仅达到20%作为基荷电源。
They are playing ALL the bets and hoping solar will win. It is very clever.
他们在“多管齐下”,押注太阳能会成为最终赢家。这一招非常聪明。
SeptikHeart
They build a lot of stuff to keept their construction industry busy. Not all of it is used like ghost cities
他们建造大量设施,是为了维持建筑业的运转。并非所有设施都得到了利用,比如“鬼城”。
Alternative_Mark2115
Ghost cities was a propaganda spin, most of those ghost cities are inhabited now. They’re simply building infrastructure according to central planning in advance of running efforts to migrate population towards those areas.
“鬼城”只是宣传噱头,那些所谓的“鬼城”现在大多已经有人居住了。中国不过是在通过中央规划提前建设基础设施,为后续引导人口向这些区域迁移做准备。
They’re not building subways and empty apartment units for something to do…
他们修建地铁和空置公寓,可不是没事找事……
Rockboxatx
Who do you think bought 4 billion in trump crypto. It wasn’t MAGA. It’s petroleum countries paying him to sabotage wind and solar farms
你们觉得是谁买了特朗普40亿美元的加密货币?肯定不是“让美国再次伟大”运动的支持者。是石油国家在给特朗普钱,让他破坏风力和太阳能电站建设。
Lokarin
China has been REALLY winning these last couple years
过去几年,中国确实一直在“赢”。
Eagle_Chick
China is playing the long game. It's a weird western notion that war is with bombs. China has already whizzed us by militarily with out dropping a thing, and they are going to take our dollar.
中国在打“长期战”。西方总觉得战争就得用炸弹,这种想法很奇怪。中国没投下一颗炸弹,却已在军事领域超越了我们,而且他们还会取代美元的地位。
They just had no idea trump would push the accelerator for them.
他们当初肯定没想到,特朗普会帮他们“踩油门”。
West-Abalone-171
Destroying the oil dollar the US spends trillions of dollars on wars every few years to maintain by selling $50 billion dollars of solar panels a year at a profit is kinda hilarious when you think about it..
美国为了维持“石油美元”体系,每隔几年就要花费数万亿美元发动战争;而中国每年通过出售500亿美元的太阳能电池板,还能盈利,顺带瓦解了“石油美元”仔细想想,这事儿还挺滑稽的。
Eagle_Chick
The technical term is 'win-win'...lol..
用专业术语来说,这叫“双赢”……哈哈。
Longjumping_Bet9607
and they are going to take our dollar.
“而且他们还会取代美元的地位。”
Nope dictators never win
不可能,独裁者永远不会赢。
yeFoh
nobody tell him about most of human history
没人告诉他人类历史上大部分时间的情况吗?
Immortal_Spina
The West will inevitably remain behind... but hey, let's just complain like good Westerners ahaha
西方将不可避免地落后……不过没关系,我们就像典型的西方人一样,抱怨抱怨就好,哈哈。