当连商业卫星似乎都能追踪到F-22时，为什么人们还相信它能够在中国上空不被发现地飞行？这种认知背后的真相究竟是什么？

Chris Coleman
Stealth aircraft are not 100% “undetectable.” They obviously can be seen, using a good old Mark I eyeball. They aren’t completely silent and can be heard. They disrupt the atmosphere, which can be observed with special equipment. And depending on the type of radar used, they can even be picked up electronically. Even with their masked heat signature, they still produce heat, which can be tracked using IR equipment.
隐形飞机并非百分之百“不可探测”。用最原始的“人的眼睛”显然还是能看到它们的。它们也并非完全无声，可以被听到。它们扰动大气，这种扰动可以用专门设备观测到。并且根据所用雷达类型，它们甚至可以被电子方式探测到。即便隐蔽了热特征，它们仍然会产生热量，这可以用红外设备追踪到。




(Supersonic waves - Not an F-22, but with similar results)
（超音速波——不是 F-22，但结果类似）


(An actual Google satellite photo of an airliner in broad daylight.)
（谷歌卫星在大白天拍到的一架客机的真实照片。）

The real important thing to remember is that none of that really matters. For the mission they are built and intended for, their low observability makes them nearly impossible to find, track and target, and at the end of the day, that’s the only thing that is important.
真正重要的是要记住：上述这些实际上并不关键。就它们被设计和用于的任务而言，低可观测性使它们几乎无法被发现、跟踪和瞄准，而归根结底，这才是唯一重要的事情。

So you can track it with a special detector from a satellite orbiting 250 miles above you in space? How do you instantly communicate that to your fighters in real time in a meaningful way? And by the time you do receive and process the information, you’ve already been targeted and a missile is on it’s way to find you. So your information is moot.
所以你可以用在距你约250英里高空运行的卫星上的特殊探测器来追踪它？那你怎么把这个信息即时且有意义地实时传达给拦截战机？等你收到并处理那些信息的时候，你早已成为目标、导弹正飞向你。所以你的信息已经无济于事了。

It’s also worth noting that a fleet of F-22 Raptors will not be crossing the Chinese border, unless there is an all-out war and we’ve already eliminated things like radar and SAM sites. To do that, we will use long-range missiles and possibly B-2 bombers. A B-2 is an entirely different animal and is extremely hard to detect, even from space, and especially at night.
还值得注意的是，除非发生全面战争并且我们已摧毁了雷达和地对空导弹（SAM）阵地，否则一支F-22猛禽编队不会越过中国边境。要做到那点，我们会使用远程导弹，可能还会用到B-2轰炸机。B-2完全是另一类东西，极难被探测——即便从太空也难以发现，尤其在夜间更是如此。


Mark Gannon
Ok now you peaked my interest. Are you saying the B-2 is harder to detect?
好吧，你引起了我的兴趣。你的意思是说B-2更难被探测吗？


Dilip Balamore
Yes. The F-22 is stealthy, not fully a stealth aircraft. Harder to detect means less time to attack. I believe the F-22’s undetectability was optimized against enemy fighter’s X-band intercept radar, and mostly from head on. The B-2 is stealthy from virtually all directions, and from radar operating on a number of bands. Long wave radar can probably detect it, but such radars are huge, and have low resolving power.
是的。F-22 是有隐身特性的，但不能说是完全的隐身飞机。更难被探测意味着攻击方的反应时间更少。我认为F-22的“不可探测性”是针对敌方战斗机的X波段截获雷达做了优化，且主要是从正面方向优化的。B-2则从几乎所有方向都具备隐身特性，并能对多频段雷达保持低可见性。长波雷达可能能探测到它，但那类雷达体积巨大，分辨率又很低。


Eric C. Turnble
No, the F-22 is 360 full stealth. And is substantially less detectable than the B-2, mostly because of size. The B-2’s RCS is roughly an order of magnitude (10x) that of the F-22. X-band is a focus, but the F-22 is all-aspect, all-wavelength stealth. In fact, while the level of stealth does vary a bit, it’s mostly due simply to aspect - the amount of possible material to bounce back a signal from the front is substantially less than from the bottom or top, but that’s 100% true for the B-2 as well (and all aircraft). L-band works against all current stealth plane, but it’s only about twice as far, and it’s purely a “something is out there” detection - no meaningful direction/altitude, and certainly not something that can be used for targetting. L-band is really only useful for a warning system. It’s completely useless for anything else. Both the F-22 and B-2 use the same generation of stealth materials and coatings. The F-22 is nothing like the SU-57, which is a front-only LO plane.
不，F-22 是全方位360度隐身。并且明显比B-2更难被探测，主要是因为体积更小。B-2 的雷达截面（RCS）大约是 F-22 的一个数量级（约10倍）。X波段是重要关注点，但F-22是全方位、全波段的隐身。事实上，隐身程度确实会有些变化，但大多数只是由于观测角度——从正面能反射回去的材料远少于从机腹或机背，但这一点对B-2（以及所有飞机）同样成立。L波段对当前所有隐身飞机都有作用，但其探测距离大约只多两倍而已，而且这种探测仅仅表示“那里有东西”——没有有意义的方向或高度信息，更不可能用于制导。L波段真正有用的只是预警系统，除此之外几乎无用。F-22 和 B-2 使用的是同一代隐身材料和涂层。F-22 和苏霍伊的SU-57完全不同，后者只是前方低可探测。


Chris Coleman
Yes. Primarily because it operates almost entirely at night, so visual and satellite detection isn’t a thing. It also has no vertical or upright surfaces above or below the centerline. In terms of it’s radar cross-section it is an extreme low-observable aircraft, which on most radar looks like a golf ball. It has one of the lowest RCS numbers of all stealth aircraft at only 0.0001 square meters. Even its heat and sound signature is extremely well masked.
Ask the Iranians following the recent strikes on nuclear facilities. You won’t even know they are there. Things will simply start exploding around you…
是的。主要因为它几乎完全在夜间行动，所以视觉和卫星探测基本不起作用。它机身上下沿中心线没有垂直或直立的表面。从雷达截面来看，它是极低可观测飞机，在多数雷达上看起来像一个高尔夫球。它的RCS(雷达截面)数值是所有隐身飞机中最低的之一，仅为0.0001平方米。即便它的热量和声音特征也被极好地掩盖。
问问最近核设施遭袭后的伊朗人就知道了。你甚至不会知道它们在哪儿——周围的东西会突然开始爆炸……


Roy Cohen
Quantum Sensing will soon make stealth obsolete as a viable tactical option…nothing will be stealthy anymore
量子探测很快会使隐身在战术上变得过时……任何东西都不再能隐身。


Andrea Srano
The only thing I disagree with is the "soon" aspect. There are poorly functioning prototypes, but I believe it will be another 30 or 40 years at least before we see truly functional, mass-produced quantum radars. By then, however, even aircraft will have quantum radars, capable of detecting SAM systems from great distances and destroying them.
By then, however, the aircraft will be equipped with APS systems such as lasers, masers and micro-anti-missile missiles for self-defense.
That said, I believe stealth technology will remain essential for many decades to come.
我唯一不同意的是“很快”这个说法。确实有一些性能欠佳的原型机，但我相信要到真正可用且量产的量子雷达出现，至少还得再等30到40年。到那时候，飞机也可能配备量子雷达，能够从远距离探测并摧毁地对空导弹系统（SAM）。
但到那时候，飞机也会配备主动防御系统（APS），例如激光、微波放大器（maser）和小型反导拦截弹来进行自卫。
尽管如此，我认为隐身技术在未来几十年仍将保持其重要性。


Michael Pinto
I can't begin to explain the stupid involved in this question. First of all, do you think China has a fleet of satellites, each following every F-22 throughout every flight?!?
我简直无法解释这个问题背后的荒谬。首先，你真的以为中国有一整支卫星舰队，每一颗卫星都在全天候跟踪每架F-22的每次飞行吗？！

Let's assume that its a real video of a Chinese satellite catching a glimpse of an F-22. OK, Great. Low Observable doesnt and never has meant invisible. It doesnt have a force field. It doesn't bend light, space, and time. Its a big gray jet. The law of probability says that at some point, someone will be in the right place at the right time to look with their Mk.1 eyeballs, and see the plane. But that isn't going to target, track, or employ weapons. Even if a satellite happens to catch a pass by an F-22, that doesnt mean that a radar system can detect and lock onto it. You can scramble fighters based on where that satelite saw ths Raptor, but that doesnt mean their fire control radars will be able to locate and lock it.
我们假设那真的是中国卫星偶尔拍到F-22的一段视频。好吧，了不起。低可观测性从来不等于不可见。它没有力场，不会扭曲光、空间或时间。它就是一架大飞机。概率法则告诉我们，总会有某个时刻、某个人在合适的地点用他的“原始眼睛”看到飞机。但那并不能用于瞄准、跟踪或发射武器。即便卫星碰巧拍到F-22的掠过，那也不意味着地面雷达能探测到并锁定它。你可以根据卫星看到猛禽的位置去起飞战机，但这并不表示这些战机的火控雷达就能定位并锁定它。

There's a reason there are professionals who deal with this kind thing daily - so incompetent, ignorant, idiotic laymen who know nothing don’t have to.
之所以有专业人士每日处理这些问题，就是为了让那些无能、无知、愚蠢的一般人不用去插手。


凛冬将至
China has built a three-dimensional network integrating "meter-wave resonance (e.g., JY-27V radar) + energy penetration (e.g., YLC-8E radar) + space-based monitoring (e.g., Jilin-1 satellite) + unmanned aerial vehicles". This network can achieve a detection probability of 70-85% for the F-22, a continuous tracking rate of 60-70%, and an interception success rate of 40-60%.
Otherwise, why do you think the U.S. military has adjusted its F-22 deployment strategy in East Asia from "permanent statio
中国已经建立了一个三维网络，整合了“米波共振（例如 JY-27V 雷达）+ 能量穿透（例如 YLC-8E 雷达）+ 空基监视（例如吉林一号卫星）+ 无人机”。该网络对 F-22 的探测概率可达70%–85%，持续跟踪率为60%–70%，拦截成功率为40%–60%。
否则，你为什么认为美军已经将其在东亚的 F-22 部署策略从“永久驻扎”调整为……


Michael Pinto
Correction - China had told everybody they've built that network. However no one has every been able.to.veridy it all actually exists through any intelligence collection methods. Which means it either doesnt exist, or they have built a lot of stuff that doesnt work.
更正——中国确实告诉大家他们已经建成了这样的网络。然而还没有任何情报收集手段能真正验证这一切是否确实存在。这要么意味着它根本不存在，要么意味着他们建了很多不起作用的东西。

The US is constantly changing its positioning and basing of equipment in every theater. Ill note you failed to finish whatever you were writing there. But there is a phrase in Latin, Post hoc ergo propter hoc. It means “after this therefore because of this”, and it describes the logical fallacy of assuming that because one action comes after another, that action is because of the other. China has a well documented history of declaring capability they don't actually have and using propaganda to pump up the perception of their power and capability. I dont dispute that China has a huge amount of forces and very good weapons to bring to bear against anyone who chooses to face them. But my words here aren't based on thing on the civilian internet which anyone can add to and which is used for propaganda purposes. I write my opinions and answers based on my actual military service and real, credible intelligence briefings from classified sources. Of course I dont give out any actual informstion I shouldn't - but everything I say here is in line with what I know to be true.
美国在每个战区不断调整其装备部署和基地位置。我注意到你没把你要写的那句写完。拉丁语里有句话叫 Post hoc ergo propter hoc，意为“在此之后，因此由此”，它描述了一种逻辑谬误——仅仅因为一件事在另一件事之后发生，就断定前者是后者的原因。中国有着用宣传夸大自身能力的明确记录，宣称拥有其实并无的能力。我不否认中国拥有大量兵力和强大的武器，对任何选择与之对抗的人都会形成威胁。但我在这里说的话不是基于任何普通互联网（那些内容任何人都能添加、常被用于宣传）的信息。我基于的是我真实的军旅经历和来自机密情报简报的可信资料写出我的观点与回答。当然我不会泄露任何不该说的实际情报——但我在这里说的每句话，都是与我知道的事实一致的。


Tyler Rickel
Lol great, so of this is the case and stealth can easily be detected…..why is China spending so much developing their own stealth planes?
哈哈，太棒了，那如果情况真是如此且隐身很容易被探测……那中国为什么还要花那么多钱去研发自己的隐身战机呢？


T Zhao
Well, China most likely would have geosynchronous satellites monitoring their coastal areas 24/7.
On top of that I believe China has ground radars with 2D phased scanning, high-power digital T/R units.
Other ground radars with Doppler or low frequency technology can also track Stealth aircrafts.
The challenge is the missiles may have issues tracking Stealth Fighters,unless they are guided by network systems.
嗯，中国很可能有地球静止轨道卫星全天候监视其沿海地区。
除此之外，我相信中国还有具备二维相控扫描、高功率数字发射/接收单元的地面雷达。
其他采用多普勒或低频技术的地面雷达也能跟踪隐身飞机。
但挑战在于导弹可能无法可靠追踪隐身战机，除非它们由网络化系统来引导。


Michael Pinto
First of all, there's no such word as aircraft's. The plural of aircraft is aircraft. Now lets explore having geosyncronous IMINT says. You have two choices: look at such a wide area that’s its crazy difficult to pick out any one small obxt, or ave your cameras zoomed in so that you are only looking at a small swath and will miss anything going on around it.
首先，“aircraft's” 这个词根本不存在。aircraft 的复数形式就是 aircraft。现在我们来探讨地球同步情报影像（IMINT）。你有两个选择：要么看极其广阔的区域，这样很难挑出任何一个小目标；要么把镜头放大，这样你只盯着一条狭窄的带状区域，就会错过周围正在发生的任何事情。

I’m not going into detail.about China's ability to track LO aircraft. Yeah, you can parrot any old things you read on the internet but talking about anything real risks classifications issue and I like my clearance. So the short and publicly statable version is - China isn't nearly as good as they like to tell the qorld they are at detecting and tracking LO aircraft, especially when pilots are actively practicing signature management. I can guarantee you have no real idea how good the F-22 is at it and how well trained our Raptor pilots are in that realm. I’ve got 21 years under my belt and I didnt know it at all until I was picked up for USAFWS.
我不会详细谈论中国跟踪低可观测（LO）飞机的能力。是的，你可以复述在网上看到的各种说法，但讨论实际细节会触及机密问题，而我可不想丢了我的安全许可。公开可说的简短版本是——中国在探测和跟踪低可观测飞机方面远没有他们自己对外宣称的那么擅长，尤其是在驾驶员积极进行特征管理时。我可以保证你对F-22在这方面有多优秀以及我们的猛禽飞行员有多训练有素根本没有真实概念。我服役了21年，直到被选入美国空军武器学校（USAFWS）之前我自己也对这些一无所知。

But the bottom line is we are not afraid of China's “capability”. We are afraid of the sheer mass and number of their air force and naval aviation. We are going to run out of AMRAAMs (given current pK) and have to bring Soarrows out of storage before we've shot them all down.
但关键是我们并不害怕中国的“探测能力”。我们担心的是他们空军和海军航空兵的数量与规模。按照当前的命中概率（pK），我们会用光AMRAAM（先进中程空对空导弹），不得不在把它们全部击落之前把备用导弹从储备中调出。


Mayuresh Fulambrikar
Love to read someone who actually has the knowledge, bashing a Chinese propagandist here. Don't get me wrong, I am NOT jealous of China, its progress or anything. But these replies are not written by common civilians, but just propagandists who like to claim that China has everything.
很喜欢看到有真才实学的人来评论，驳斥那些中国宣传者。别误会，我并不嫉妒中国或其发展。但这些回复并非出自普通民众，而是出自那些喜欢声称“中国无所不能”的宣传者。


Tyler Rickel
Sooooo in other words no they can not track and hit them. If it was so easy, why is China spending so much on 6th gen stealth development?
You also assume that the US, the first country with stealth and 55 years of experience with it has not developed any counters itself? We have more soy satellites, more experience, more stealth vs stealth training, yet China fan boys on here act like we have just sat back and done nothing.
first strike, boeing x37s would take out Chinese satellites, followed by SOSUs tracking taking out Chinese subs, 20 cruise missiles per B2 sortie would hit all airfields in Taiwan range. You underestimate us wayyy to much on here.
所以换句话说，他们不能追踪并击中它们。如果那么容易，为什么中国还在花大钱开发第六代隐身战机？
你还假设美国——作为第一个拥有隐身并有55年经验的国家——没有自行开发对抗手段？我们有更多侦察卫星，更多经验，更多隐身对隐身的训练，但这里的中国粉丝们表现得好像我们什么都没做。
首轮打击的话，波音 X-37 会先摧毁中国卫星，随后其他手段追踪并攻击中国潜艇，每架B-2出动携带20枚巡航导弹就能打击台湾（地区）射程内的所有机场。你们对我们的低估太夸张了。


CED Concrete
People always want to believe the things that they want to
You'd better recognize that F22 just a plane that maximum can fly to 15240–18500 meters high，which can easily been locked by common optical equipment like common telescope. And China，as the most powerful industry country of the earth can easily produce more than 100 thousand telescopes that lockdown its entire boundary line. So no matter how small redar reflection area does the F22 is，it can never fly over China with undetected situation until 100% of boundary covered by cloud，this in meteorology almost is impossible
And if you still believe it can，you need admit China’s J20 also can undetected fly over USA lol
人们总愿意相信他们想相信的事
你最好明白F-22终究是一架飞机，最大飞行高度在15240–18500米之间，这容易被普通光学设备（比如常见望远镜）锁定。而中国作为全球最强工业国之一，完全可以生产十万+台望远镜把边界线盯住。所以不管F-22的雷达反射面积多小，只要边界没被云层100%覆盖，它就不可能在中国上空完全不被发现——在气象上这几乎不可能。
如果你还相信它能不被发现飞越，那你得承认中国的J-20也能不被发现飞越美国，哈哈。


Phantom Chuck
Worked at United States Geological Survey (USGS) (1994–2001)Jul 12
It is unlikely for the F-22 to be over to fly over China undetected. The Chinese invested a lot in low frequency radars as counter stealth technology. Contempoary stealth aircraft are optimized for stealth against higher frequency radars.
不太可能F-22能够在中国上空不被发现地飞越。中国在低频雷达方面投入很大，作为反隐身技术。现代隐身飞机是针对较高频雷达进行隐身优化的。

So if an F-22 attempts overfly China proper, the Chinese world likely know about it.
因此，如果一架F-22企图真正飞越中国本土，中国方面很可能会知道。

However knowing about it being somewhere where it shouldn’t be, to within a precision of a few miles, and being readily able to pin it down to precise enough of a location to successfully engage it is not the same thing.
不过，“知道某架飞机在不该在的地方（大概范围几英里）”与“能够把它精确定位到足以成功拦截的程度”并不是一回事。

the Chinese probably can’t engage it with ground defense with significant probability of success unless the F22 makes some significant errors. They can vector fighters towards it, but it is unclear how many fighters would be needed, given F-22’s ability to shift location quickly using super cruise, to afford some reasonable probability that one of the fighters will be able to get close enough to generate a track or a lock with its own radar, or would fluster the F-22 pilot enough to cause an error that would reveal the F-22.
中方地面防御系统成功拦截该战机的概率可能较低——除非F-22犯下重大战术失误。虽可派遣战机进行拦截，但由于F-22具备超音速巡航带来的快速机动能力，目前难以确定需要投入多少架战机才能：其一，使至少一架拦截机接近至足以用机载雷达生成跟踪轨迹或实现锁定的距离；其二，迫使F-22飞行员陷入足以暴露行踪的战术失误。这种拦截行动的成功概率存在显著不确定性。