了解世界历史的朋友们，若丰臣秀吉未曾突然病逝，日本是否有能力彻底征服朝鲜甚至击败大明王朝？

Jason.kete
Impossible. After the Ming Dynasty (China) joined the war, it was impossible.

不可能。在大明（中国）参战之后，这就完全不可能了。

Military strength: Ming Dynasty>>Japan>Korea (I'm talking about overall strength, not just the Chinese army on the Korean battlefield). If you factor in logistics and support, Toyotomi Hideyoshi would have a difficult time conquering Korea. Conquering China, which is clearly at least a level stronger than him, or even more so? You're dreaming, buddy.

军事实力：大明 >> 日本 > 朝鲜（我说的是整体实力，不仅仅是在朝鲜战场上的明军）。如果把后勤补给和支持算上，丰臣秀吉征服朝鲜都会很困难。征服明显比他至少强一个级别、甚至更强的中国？老兄，你在做梦呢。

If the Chinese hadn't participated, Japan might have had a reasonable chance of conquering Korea (though not a 100% chance). But after the Ming Dynasty joined the war, conquering either Korea or China became a pipe dream and a joke. Conquering the Ming Dynasty, in particular, would be like some people's fantasy of Spain conquering China—the probability was zero. Fifty years later, the severely weakened Ming Dynasty still succumbed to severe internal strife and was not actually conquered by the Manchus. Furthermore, the Ming Dynasty barely reached its peak at the end of the 16th century.

如果中国没有参战，日本或许有相当的机会征服朝鲜（虽然也不是100%）。但在大明参战之后，征服朝鲜或中国都成了白日梦和笑话。尤其是征服大明，那就像有些人幻想西班牙征服中国一样——概率为零。五十年后，严重衰弱的大明依然是因为严重的内乱而覆亡，并非真正被满清征服。况且，大明在16世纪末才刚刚度过其巅峰期。


Also, while some have argued that there was no true winner in this war, or that Japan didn't actually lose, a simple overview of the war obxtives of the three countries clearly shows that Toyotomi Hideyoshi clearly lost.

另外，尽管有些人认为这场战争没有真正的赢家，或者说日本其实没输，但只要简单回顾一下三方的战争目标就能清楚地看出，丰臣秀吉显然是输了。

Korea: Expelled the invaders, Japan.

朝鲜：驱逐了入侵者（日本）。

China: Helped its vassal states expel the invaders, Japan.

中国：帮助其藩属国驱逐了入侵者（日本）。

Japan: Conquered Korea, and later China. (Some say Toyotomi Hideyoshi had no ambition to conquer China, and that the war was simply to deplete the samurai. However, Hideyoshi's recorded statements clearly indicate otherwise. Hideyoshi clearly had no understanding of Chinese geography; he didn't even know where China's capital was or how large China was. In short, he completely underestimated the Ming Dynasty, mistakenly believing it to be weak.)

日本：征服朝鲜，进而征服中国。（有人说丰臣秀吉并无征服中国的野心，战争只是为了消耗武士阶层。然而，秀吉有记录的言论清楚地表明事实并非如此。秀吉显然不了解中国的地理；他甚至不知道中国的首都在哪里，中国有多大。总之，他完全低估了大明，错误地认为其很弱小。）

This war is quite interesting, a bit like a triple Rashomon (meaning the records of the three countries differ somewhat). However, some facts are generally clear and directly support my point.

这场战争相当有趣，有点像三重罗生门（意指三国的记录有些出入）。然而，有些事实大体上是清晰的，并且直接支持我的观点。

1. The Ming Dynasty possessed extremely powerful cavalry and artillery, especially its cavalry, which remained world-class. Its artillery was also the best and most advanced of the three countries.

1. 大明拥有极其强大的骑兵和炮兵，尤其是其骑兵，保持了世界级水平。其火炮也是三国中最好、最先进的。


A Portuguese missionary recorded a war scene: Chinese cavalrymen easily shuttled among Japanese warriors, and the warriors' swords, matchlock guns, and bows and arrows could hardly cause any harm to the armored Ming cavalrymen.

一位葡萄牙传教士记录了一个战争场景：中国骑兵轻易地在日本武士中穿梭，而武士们的刀、火绳枪和弓箭几乎无法对披甲的明军骑兵造成任何伤害。


Diary of a surviving Japanese samurai: In the Battle of Ulsan, Japanese samurai were massacred on a large scale by the Chinese army. The Chinese artillery and cavalry left a very deep shadow on him.

一位幸存日本武士的日记：在蔚山战役中，日本武士遭到中国军队的大规模屠杀。中国的火炮和骑兵给他留下了非常深的心理阴影。

Even Japanese sources clearly documented that the Japanese army struggled to hold its own against the Chinese in open-field battles. This further proves that Japan had lost its chance to conquer Korea, let alone China. Simply winning a few defensive battles is not enough to conquer a country.

即使是日本史料也清楚记载，日军在野战中难以与中国军队抗衡。这进一步证明日本已经失去了征服朝鲜的机会，更不用说中国了。仅仅赢得几场防御战并不足以征服一个国家。

2. Japan possessed the most advanced matchlock muskets, thanks to long-term exchanges with the Portuguese. This point is also recognized by both Chinese and Koreans.

2. 日本拥有最先进的火绳枪，这得益于与葡萄牙人的长期交流。这一点也得到中国和朝鲜人的认可。


3. After the Chinese army joined the war, the Japanese army's victories were primarily defensive battles (defending cities). In field battles, numerous historical records from the Three Kingdoms era clearly document the inability of Japanese samurai to withstand the Ming cavalry, coupled with the Chinese artillery.

3. 中国军队参战后，日军的胜利主要是防御战（守城）。在野战中，大量来自三国时代的史料清楚地记录了日本武士无法抵挡明军骑兵，再加上中国的火炮。

4. In naval battles, the Ming and Korean navies were significantly superior to the Japanese (with significantly superior artillery in both quantity and quality).

4. 在海战中，明军和朝鲜水师明显优于日本（火炮在数量和质量上都显著优越）。


5. By the late stages of the war, more than one Japanese daimyo had given up on fighting (because the goal of conquering Korea was no longer within their grasp), and Toyotomi Hideyoshi's death was the final straw that broke the camel's back.

5. 战争后期，不止一位日本大名已经放弃战斗（因为征服朝鲜的目标已无法实现），而丰臣秀吉的死是压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。

6. Before China entered the war, Japan had occupied at least 65-70 percent of Korean territory, but its territory subsequently dwindled, ultimately forcing it to retreat to a defensive position south of Busan. The war map further demonstrates that Japan could not even conquer Korea. Conquering China was an absurd dream.

6. 在中国参战前，日本已占领至少65-70%的朝鲜领土，但其后占领区不断缩小，最终被迫撤退到釜山以南的防御阵地。战争地图进一步表明日本连征服朝鲜都做不到。征服中国更是一个荒谬的梦想。

Dsy1972
The cavalry of the Ming Dynasty was like the tanks of that era, and the warriors were unable to resist...

大明的骑兵就像是那个时代的坦克，武士们无法抵抗……

SuperGofMelb
yet Ming’s Cavalry is not even the best Cavalry in the region. The Jurchens and the Mongols both had better Cavalry troops.

然而大明的骑兵甚至不是该地区最好的。女真人和蒙古人都拥有更优秀的骑兵部队。

Dan.Peter
The Ming s cavalry was always stronger than the Mongols and Jurchens. During the Imjin War, many Mongol cavalry still served the Ming , obeying the orders of the Han Chinese cavalry. The Jurchens only surpassed the Ming in the last 30 years of the Ming.

大明的骑兵一直比蒙古和女真更强。在壬辰战争期间，许多蒙古骑兵仍为大明效力，听从汉族骑兵军官的命令。女真人只是在明朝最后30年才超越明军。

Goon Hoong Tatt
The Ming expelled the Mongols and even went after them deep into the Mongol heartland. The Japanese would be a piece of cake.

大明驱逐了蒙古人，甚至深入蒙古腹地追击他们。日本人不过是小菜一碟。

Wei Shi
But Mongols unable to offer any fortress experience.

但是蒙古人无法提供任何要塞攻坚战的经验。

SuperGofMelb
They did that, then years later the Mongol came back and even took a Ming emperor prisoner.

他们确实那样做了，但几年后蒙古人卷土重来，甚至还俘虏了一位大明皇帝。

Dan.Peter
In the middle and late Ming Dynasty, there were still Mongolian Khans who surrendered and became vassals of the Ming Dynasty.

在明朝中后期，仍然有蒙古可汗投降并成为大明的藩属。

Long Calvin
Hideyoshi was a madman with delusional dreams of grandeur. This extended to subsequent Japanese leaders like tojo. British financing and industrial modernizing were Japans lottery luck during China's weakest point in its history. It will never have that chance again, and Japans self-terrorizing cognitive dissonance about its delusional superiority is causing this desperately annoying barking today. This may finally give China a chance to finish what the US did not.

秀吉是个狂妄自大、痴心妄想的疯子。这种特质延续到了后来像东条英机那样的日本领导人身上。英国的资助和工业现代化是日本在中国处于历史最弱点的时期中彩票般的运气。它再也不会有那种机会了，而日本对其妄想优越性的自我恐吓式认知失调导致了今天这种极其烦人的犬吠。这或许最终能給中国一个机会去完成美国未竟之事。

SuperGofMelb
Ming sent an expedition force, a rather small force out of their overall military strength and stopped Japan dead in its tracks. To be fair, they did sent probably their best troops that were stationed in Manchuria. Japan would probably have a better chance if they landed not in Korea but on Chinese southern coasts. Although, we have to remember, there’s also the Jurchens, if Japan did end up making some head ways, the Jurchens would probably come out and smash everyone.

大明派出了一支远征军，相对于其总军力而言规模相当小，就阻止了日本的攻势。公平地说，他们派出的很可能是驻守满洲（辽东）的最精锐部队。如果日本不是登陆朝鲜而是登陆中国南部沿海，他们的机会可能会大一些。不过，我们必须记住，还有女真人呢，如果日本真的取得了一些进展，女真人很可能会出来把所有人都击垮。

Wic Wong
General Qi’s legacy was still there in Southern China. Japanese troops would have less success in Southern China compared to Korea. In fact, Ming’s Southern troops had an upper hand compared to the Northern troops in Korea as well. However, Ming army’s Commander-in-Chief was a northerner, so when the Southern troops almost captured the Japanese fortresses, he ordered the Southern troops to stop attacking and used Northern troops to finish the job, but the Northern troops wasn’t capable of doing that, and that gave the Japanese troops room for breathing and retreat.

戚将军的遗产（指抗倭经验与军队）在中国南方仍在。日本军队在中国南方相比在朝鲜会更难成功。事实上，在朝鲜，大明的南军相比北军也占有优势。然而，明军的总司令是北方人，所以当南军几乎要攻下日军堡垒时，他命令南军停止进攻，改用北军去完成攻坚，但北军没有能力做到，这就给了日军喘息和撤退的空间。

Karl Tsang
Japan would not last anywhere near as long if they went for southern China. Firstly the distance over sea would be much, much greater, so likely 70–90% of the invasion would be blown off course already before it could even land (in that era plenty of merchants and monks were blown off course and took years to get to where they wanted in the seas there), and secondly if Japan went directly for China, Ming would focus all its efforts to eject the intruder, unlike with Korea where they did wait a little bit before sending a smaller force to help defend.

如果日本进攻中国南方，他们根本坚持不了那么久。首先，海上距离要远得多，很可能70-90%的入侵舰队在登陆前就被吹离航线（在那个时代，很多商人和僧侣都被吹离航线，花了好几年才到达他们想去的地方）；其次，如果日本直接进攻中国，大明会集中全部力量驱逐入侵者，不像在朝鲜，他们确实等待了一会儿才派出一支规模较小的部队去协助防御。

Dan.Peter
Konishi Yukinaga and other Japanese daimyo did have the idea of ​​giving up the war, because in the middle and late stages, it was almost impossible for Japan to conquer Korea.

小西行长和其他日本大名的确有过放弃战争的想法，因为在战争的中后期，日本几乎不可能征服朝鲜了。

Leonardo Ho
Toyotomi Hideyoshi couldn't even effectively unify Japan. He relied on forming alliances to gain control of Japan, a sign of incompetence. Consequently, after his death, his alliances immediately disbanded, and even his descendants were murdered by his former partners. Therefore, he wasn't a particularly powerful figure. Even before his death, he also failed to win the war against Korea. This, of course, truly reflects the disparity between the Japanese and Ming armies. Even if another Japanese general had taken over, they wouldn't have achieved a better result.

丰臣秀吉甚至不能有效地统一日本。他依靠结盟来控制日本，这是无能的表现。结果，在他死后，他的联盟立即解散，甚至他的后代也被他以前的合作伙伴谋杀。因此，他并不是一个特别厉害的人物。甚至在他死前，他也未能赢得对朝鲜的战争。这当然真实地反映了日本军队和明军之间的差距。即使换另一个日本将军接手，他们也不会取得更好的结果。

Dan.Peter
There is still no hope. If you really studied the Imjin War, you will know that the territory occupied by Japan was shrinking. Their outstanding performance was more concentrated in defensive battles, which is not a good thing for conquering a country.

仍然没有希望。如果你真的研究过壬辰战争，你就会知道日本占领的领土在不断缩小。他们的出色表现更多地集中在防御战上，这对于征服一个国家来说并不是好事。

Anglo Edu
No. The troops he had at his disposal were not enough even during the late 16th century. His supply logistics were incapable of sustaining such a lengthy war. On a map it looks promising, in reality it’s not. The Spanish and Portuguese advisers to the Japanese, were foolish. They should of listened to the newly arrived British or Dutch traders to Japan by the 1590’s. The Manchus were watching warily as the Ming Chinese and divided Joseon Koreans formed a weak alliance based on poetry and Court rhetoric. The West by this time was under a rising British Naval fleet that destroyed the Spanish Armada and its inept Navy. During ancient history, the Moors, Portuguese and Spanish were the kings of Equestrian land warfare, but the British with Welsh, Caledonians, Irish, Welsh, and Scottish naval officers were the terror of the seas.

不。即使在16世纪末，他能调动的军队也不够。他的后勤补给无法维持这样一场漫长的战争。在地图上看起来前途光明，现实中却并非如此。给日本人做顾问的西班牙人和葡萄牙人是愚蠢的。他们本应听听90年代（指1590年代）新到日本的英国或荷兰商人的意见。满人正警惕地观望着，明国人和分裂的朝鲜人基于诗文和朝堂辞令形成了脆弱的联盟。此时的西方，正值英国海军舰队崛起，摧毁了西班牙无敌舰队及其无能的海军。在古代史上，摩尔人、葡萄牙人和西班牙人是骑兵陆战的王者，但拥有威尔士、喀里多尼亚（苏格兰古称）、爱尔兰、威尔士和苏格兰军官的英国人却是海上的恐怖存在。

Cian Mac Iosaig
No. They couldn't do it when he was alive and extending the length would not change that outcome.

不。他在世时都没能做到，延长寿命也不会改变那个结果。

By the time of his death, the Koreans had reformed their armies and navies and while they were -on land at least- not as completely capable as the Japanese. The Korean Navy, however, was superior by his death as well, while the Japanese had lost a great deal of naval power meaning the nature of the conflict was always going to go against Japan at this point.

到他去世时，朝鲜人已重整了陆军和海军，尽管在陆地上他们至少还不如日本人那般完全具备战斗能力。然而，到他去世时朝鲜海军已经占据上风，而日本人则损失了大量海上力量，这意味着在这一点上，战争的走向已注定对日本不利。

Japan's victories were not entirely impressive except early in the campaign either, so it's not like they were 100% superior to the Korean army. Japan also ensured enmity that motivated Koreans and alienated them as well by a large amount of deliberate destruction. The Samurai were hardly motivated either. They were essentially only fighting at all because of Hideyoshi. There was no threat to Japan.

日本的胜利（除了战役初期）并不算特别显赫，所以并非他们对朝鲜军队有着绝对的百分百优势。日本人的大规模蓄意破坏也激起了朝鲜人的仇恨并使他们更加团结。武士们同样士气低落；他们基本上之所以参战，仅仅是因为丰臣秀吉而已。对日本本土并不存在真正的威胁。

Even if Japan managed to win, it would suffer holding it given the logistics and hostility of a populace. Feudal Daimyo would be want to be constantly drawn away from their own private holdings.

即便日本设法取得胜利，考虑到后勤问题和民众的敌意，它也难以稳固地占领该地。封建大名将不得不不断离开自己的私有领地。

And while Hideyoshi was a skilled strategist and tactician, he was not ever on the front line, meaning the conduct of the war specifically was not going to change with him living. And he was quite old anyways.

虽然秀吉是一位娴熟的战略家和战术家，但他从未亲临前线，这意味着战争的具体指挥并不会因为他活着而改变。而且他已经很老了。

Finally, the Ming. Ming China history has often stressed the impact of the Imjin War on influencing the Ming’s fall due to the cost of the war. However, the Ming hardly contributed their entire power and even a scant expedition was enough to bog down the entire Japanese campaign despite it being Japan’s main focus.

最后，是大明。中国明史常常强调壬辰战争因耗费巨资而对明朝灭亡产生的影响。然而，明朝几乎未尽全力，即使一支小小的远征军也足以拖住日本的整个战役——尽管这是日本的主要焦点。

the Ming were more distracted with the stepped, specifically in Mongolian, but also the Kitchen tribes. Most it's army was focused on Mongolian during the war, however, had Japan managed to start winning, the Ming would likely become much more likely to shift their focus, especially given the Jurchen (Manchu) were nearby as well.

明朝更分心于草原（steppe，指北方蒙古），特别是蒙古，还有女真部落。战争期间其大部分军队都专注于蒙古，然而，如果日本开始取胜，明朝很可能会更倾向于转移其焦点，特别是考虑到女真（满族）也在附近。

So, focusing on it after dealing with the other side of the Stepped would have been guaranteed. After all, unlike Korea, the Japanese were entirely hostile to the Ming with very little recourse to solve that animosity and so Japan in Korea would be a major inconvenience.

因此，在解决了草原（另一侧）那边的问题后再把注意力集中到这件事上几乎是可以确定的。毕竟，与朝鲜不同，日本对明朝持彻底敌对态度，几乎没有办法化解这种仇恨，因此日本人在朝鲜将会成为一大麻烦。

Hideyoshi’s war actually ruined a lot of power that he had built as it devastated those loyal more than this of more ambitious Daimyo. Ieyasu, for example, was almost entirely unaffected by the war. While Hideyoshi left a weakened loyalty for his son.

秀吉的战争实际上摧毁了他建立的许多权力基础，因为它摧毁了那些忠诚的（大名）甚于更有野心的大名。例如，家康几乎完全未受战争影响。而秀吉留给儿子的则是一个忠诚度被削弱的局面。

Which, with Hideyoshi being a peasant, meant that the Daimyo were less likely to respect his son’s claim to power beyond being a puppet. However, that started when he was alive, and due to his war. People were losing faith because he was still alive to keep it going. By his death, he understood he wasn't going to win though. So living longer wouldn't really change that.

鉴于秀吉出身农民，这意味着大名们不太可能尊重他儿子对权力的主张，最多把他当作傀儡。然而，这在他生前就开始了，并且是由于他的战争。人们正在失去信心，而他还活着让战争继续。到他死时，他明白自己赢不了了。所以活得更久并不会真正改变这一点。

In the end, Hideyoshi would never have won. He lacked the understanding of those he was fighting. . He lacked the logistics to keep supporting even before the second invasion. He alienated and weakened his power and support. And the Ming were not as abysmal as people like to think, even at this point in the Dynasty. He couldn't win while living as it was.. All of Korea was never even taken, much less any Chinese territory, which was far more of a task even if the Ming were losing every single battle in some perfect world.

最终，丰臣秀吉不可能获胜。他不了解自己所对抗的对象。他在第二次入侵之前就已经缺乏持续支援的后勤保障。他的所作所为疏远并削弱了自己的权力和支持。而明朝并不像人们常想的那样糟糕，即便在王朝的这一时期也并非能被轻易击溃。他在当时的状态下无法取胜。整个朝鲜从未被彻底占领，更别提任何中国领土了——即便在一个假想的完美世界里，明朝在每一场战斗都失利，夺取中国领土仍然是更为艰巨的任务。

It was the worst decision the man made, and his life wouldn't erase that slip up by simply living longer.

这是此人做过的最糟糕的决定，他的寿命长短并不能抹消这个失误。