美知乎提问：有谁了解世界历史吗？如果丰臣秀吉没有死，日本有没有可能征服朝鲜甚至中国的明朝？

Jason.kete Follow
Impossible. After the Ming Dynasty (China) joined the war, it was impossible.
Military strength: Ming Dynasty>>Japan>Korea (I'm talking about overall strength, not just the Chinese army on the Korean battlefield). If you factor in logistics and support, Toyotomi Hideyoshi would have a difficult time conquering Korea. Conquering China, which is clearly at least a level stronger than him, or even more so? You're dreaming, buddy.
If the Chinese hadn't participated, Japan might have had a reasonable chance of conquering Korea (though not a 100% chance). But after the Ming Dynasty joined the war, conquering either Korea or China became a pipe dream and a joke. Conquering the Ming Dynasty, in particular, would be like some people's fantasy of Spain conquering China—the probability was zero. Fifty years later, the severely weakened Ming Dynasty still succumbed to severe internal strife and was not actually conquered by the Manchus. Furthermore, the Ming Dynasty barely reached its peak at the end of the 16th century.

不可能。明朝（中国）参战后，绝无可能。
军事实力：明朝>>日本>朝鲜（我说的是整体实力，而非单指朝鲜战场上的明军）。若算上后勤补给，丰臣秀吉想征服朝鲜都够呛。要征服明显至少高他一个量级、甚至更强的中国？兄弟，做梦呢。
若中国未参战，日本或许有相当概率拿下朝鲜（但也非十成把握）。但自明朝参战后，征服朝鲜或中国都成了痴人说梦。尤其是征服明朝，就像某些人幻想西班牙征服中国那样——概率为零。五十年后严重衰弱的明朝仍是因内乱严重才亡国，并非真正被满清征服。更何况 16 世纪末的明朝离巅峰期相去不远。


Also, while some have argued that there was no true winner in this war, or that Japan didn't actually lose, a simple overview of the war obxtives of the three countries clearly shows that Toyotomi Hideyoshi clearly lost.
Korea: Expelled the invaders, Japan.
China: Helped its vassal states expel the invaders, Japan.
Japan: Conquered Korea, and later China. (Some say Toyotomi Hideyoshi had no ambition to conquer China, and that the war was simply to deplete the samurai. However, Hideyoshi's recorded statements clearly indicate otherwise. Hideyoshi clearly had no understanding of Chinese geography; he didn't even know where China's capital was or how large China was. In short, he completely underestimated the Ming Dynasty, mistakenly believing it to be weak.)

此外，尽管有人认为这场战争没有真正的赢家，或者说日本实际上并未战败，但只需简单回顾三国参战目标就能看出：丰臣秀吉显然是输家。
朝鲜：成功驱逐了侵略者日本。
中国：协助藩属国击退了侵略者日本。
日本：原计划征服朝鲜，进而攻占中国。（有观点认为丰臣秀吉并无侵华野心，开战仅为消耗武士阶层。但历史记载明确显示，秀吉对中国地理毫无概念——他连明朝首都方位和疆域规模都不清楚。简言之，他严重低估了明朝实力，误判其软弱可欺。）

This war is quite interesting, a bit like a triple Rashomon (meaning the records of the three countries differ somewhat). However, some facts are generally clear and directly support my point.
1. The Ming Dynasty possessed extremely powerful cavalry and artillery, especially its cavalry, which remained world-class. Its artillery was also the best and most advanced of the three countries.
A Portuguese missionary recorded a war scene: Chinese cavalrymen easily shuttled among Japanese warriors, and the warriors' swords, matchlock guns, and bows and arrows could hardly cause any harm to the armored Ming cavalrymen.

这场战争相当有趣，有点像三重罗生门（意指三国的记载略有出入）。不过有些事实基本明确，直接支撑我的观点。
1. 明朝拥有极其强大的骑兵与炮兵，尤其骑兵始终保持世界一流水平，其炮兵也是三国中最优秀最先进的。
一位葡萄牙传教士记载的战争场景：中国骑兵在倭寇武士中轻松穿梭，武士们的刀剑、火绳枪和弓箭几乎无法对披甲的明军骑兵造成任何伤害。


Diary of a surviving Japanese samurai: In the Battle of Ulsan, Japanese samurai were massacred on a large scale by the Chinese army. The Chinese artillery and cavalry left a very deep shadow on him.
Even Japanese sources clearly documented that the Japanese army struggled to hold its own against the Chinese in open-field battles. This further proves that Japan had lost its chance to conquer Korea, let alone China. Simply winning a few defensive battles is not enough to conquer a country.
2. Japan possessed the most advanced matchlock muskets, thanks to long-term exchanges with the Portuguese. This point is also recognized by both Chinese and Koreans.

某位幸存日本武士的日记：在蔚山之战中，日本武士被中国军队大规模屠杀。中国炮兵与骑兵给他留下了极深的心理阴影。
即便日本史料也明确记载，日军在野战中难以抵挡中国军队。这进一步证明日本已丧失征服朝鲜的机会，更遑论中国。仅靠赢得几场防御战远不足以征服一个国家。
2. 日本拥有当时最先进的火绳枪，这得益于长期与葡萄牙人的交流。这一点也得到中朝双方的公认。


3. After the Chinese army joined the war, the Japanese army's victories were primarily defensive battles (defending cities). In field battles, numerous historical records from the Three Kingdoms era clearly document the inability of Japanese samurai to withstand the Ming cavalry, coupled with the Chinese artillery.
4. In naval battles, the Ming and Korean navies were significantly superior to the Japanese (with significantly superior artillery in both quantity and quality).

3. 明军参战后，日军取得的胜利多为守城战。野战方面，三国的大量史料明确记载日本武士难以抵挡明军骑兵配合火器的攻势。
4. 海战方面，明朝与朝鲜水师的战斗力明显优于日军（双方火炮在数量和质量上均占据绝对优势）。


5. By the late stages of the war, more than one Japanese daimyo had given up on fighting (because the goal of conquering Korea was no longer within their grasp), and Toyotomi Hideyoshi's death was the final straw that broke the camel's back.
6.rcing it Before China entered the war, Japan had occupied at least 65-70 percent of Korean territory, but its territory subsequently dwindled, ultimately fo to retreat to a defensive position south of Busan. The war map further demonstrates that Japan could not even conquer Korea. Conquering China was an absurd dream.

5. 战争后期，不止一位日本大名已放弃战斗（因为征服朝鲜的目标已遥不可及），而丰臣秀吉之死成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。
6. 在中国参战前，日本已占领朝鲜至少 65-70%的领土，但其占领区随后不断萎缩，最终被迫撤退至釜山以南的防御阵地。战争地图进一步证明日本连朝鲜都无法征服，遑论征服中国——这根本是痴人说梦。

Long Calvin· Fri
Hideyoshi was a madman with delusional dreams of grandeur. This extended to subsequent Japanese leaders like tojo. British financing and industrial modernizing were Japans lottery luck during China's weakest point in its history. It will never have that chance again, and Japans self-terrorizing cognitive dissonance about its delusional superiority is causing this desperately annoying barking today. This may finally give China a chance to finish what the US did not.

丰臣秀吉是个狂妄自大的疯子，这种妄想延续到了东条英机等后来的日本领导人身上。在中国历史上最虚弱的时期，英国的资助和工业现代化是日本撞上的大运。这种机会永远不会再有，而日本对其妄想优越感的自我恐吓式认知失调，导致了今天这种令人极度厌烦的吠叫。这或许最终会给中国一个机会来完成美国未竟之事。

Dsy1972 · Fri
The cavalry of the Ming Dynasty was like the tanks of that era, and the warriors were unable to resist...

明朝骑兵就像那个时代的坦克，武士们根本无法抵挡...

SuperGofMelb· 21h
yet Ming’s Cavalry is not even the best Cavalry in the region. The Jurchens and the Mongols both had better Cavalry troops.

然而明朝骑兵甚至不是该地区最强的骑兵部队。女真人和蒙古人都拥有更精锐的骑兵。

Dan.Peter· 18h
The Ming s cavalry was always stronger than the Mongols and Jurchens. During the Imjin War, many Mongol cavalry still served the Ming , obeying the orders of the Han Chinese cavalry. The Jurchens only surpassed the Ming in the last 30 years of the Ming.

明朝的骑兵始终强于蒙古人和女真人。壬辰战争期间，许多蒙古骑兵仍为明朝效力，听从汉族骑兵将领的调遣。女真人直到明朝最后三十年才超越明军。

Goon Hoong Tatt · Fri
The Ming expelled the Mongols and even went after them deep into the Mongol heartland. The Japanese would be a piece of cake.

明朝将蒙古人驱逐出境，甚至深入蒙古腹地追击。日本不过是小菜一碟。

SuperGofMelb· 21h
They did that, then years later the Mongol came back and even took a Ming emperor prisoner.

他们确实这样做了，然而数年后蒙古人卷土重来，甚至俘虏了一位明朝皇帝。

Dan.Peter· 17h
In the middle and late Ming Dynasty, there were still Mongolian Khans who surrendered and became vassals of the Ming
Dynasty.

明朝中后期，仍有蒙古可汗归降并成为明朝的藩属。

SuperGofMel · 21h
Ming sent an expedition force, a rather small force out of their overall military strength and stopped Japan dead in its tracks.
To be fair, they did sent probably their best troops that were stationed in Manchuria.
Japan would probably have a better chance if they landed not in Korea but on Chinese southern coasts
Although, we have to remember, there’s also the Jurchens, if Japan did end up making some head ways, the Jurchens would probably come out and smash everyone.

明朝派出了一支远征军，虽然在其总兵力中规模较小，却彻底遏制了日本的攻势。
平心而论，他们确实可能派出了驻守满洲的最精锐部队。
如果日本选择在中国南部沿海而非朝鲜登陆，胜算或许会更大
不过我们必须记住，还有女真人的存在。倘若日本真能取得一些进展，女真人很可能会出兵击溃所有势力。

Wic Wong· 20h
General Qi’s legacy was still there in Southern China, Japanese troops would have less success compared to Korea. In fact, Ming’s Southern troops had an upper hand compared to the Northern troops in Korea as well. However, Ming army’s Commander-in-Chief was a northerner, so when the Southern troops almost captured the Japanese fortresses, he ordered the Southern troops to stop attacking and used Northern troops to finish the job, but the Northern troops wasn’t capable of doing that, and that gave the Japanese troops room for breathing and retreat.

戚家军的余部仍在华南活动，日军在朝鲜的战果将难以复制。事实上，明军在朝鲜作战时，南兵的表现本就优于北兵。但明军主帅出身北方，当南兵即将攻陷日军要塞时，他竟下令南兵停止进攻，改派北兵收尾——而北兵根本不具备这样的战力，反倒给了日军喘息撤退之机。

Jeanpeterson Pierce 15h
Ambitions of impoverished dwarfs like grass-snakes swallowing the Celestial Dragon.

贫瘠岛民的野心，犹如草蛇妄图吞食天龙。

Dan.Peter · Fri
Konishi Yukinaga and other Japanese daimyo did have the idea of ​​giving up the war, because in the middle and late stages, it was almost impossible for Japan to conquer Korea.

小西行长等日本大名确实产生过放弃战争的念头，因为到了战争中后期，日本几乎不可能征服朝鲜。

Robo Robo · 17h
No Ming scenario given Japan’s resources at the time.

以当时日本的资源条件，征服明朝根本无从谈起。

Ueda · 7h
January 25, 1593
The Ming army was completely defeated by the Japanese army, and the Ming army never again defeated the Japanese.
The Ming army and Japanese scouting forces made contact. In the early hours of the following day, the 26th, Tachibana Muneshige's 2,000-man force began its advance. After fierce fighting from 6:00 AM to 11:00 AM, 20,000 Japanese troops under the command of Ukita Hideie received word of the situation and engaged in a decisive battle at Byeongjekwan on the outskirts of Seoul, resulting in the Japanese victory (Battle of Byeongjekwan). The Ming army suffered heavy losses in this battle (some say 6,000 killed), and Commander-in-Chief Li Rusong was nearly killed in action, but he retreated to Pyongyang. More than 80 brave warriors from Li Rusong's personal guard, including Li Yousheng, were also killed in action.[276] The defeat in this battle caused Li Rusong to lose his will to fight, weakening the Ming army's momentum, and he abandoned his plan to repel the Japanese army by force and turned to peace negotiations. Regarding the Battle of Byeongjekwan, the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty states, "The Chinese soldiers wielded short swords, were mounted, and had no firearms. The roads were muddy and inaccessible, and the Japanese troops were daring with long swords and charging forward. Sharp and invincible." The Jeongbi-roku (Records of the Dead), written by Ryu Seong-ryong, the Korean prime minister who also arranged for supplies and other supplies for Yi Rusong's army, states, "Admiral Yi Rusong led only northern cavalrymen with no firearms, only dull daggers. On the other hand, the bandits (Japanese troops) were infantrymen, and their swords were all three to four feet long and extremely sharp, so even in fierce clashes they would swing their long swords and slash at the enemy, causing both men and horses to fall, and no one dared to stand up to them. The admiral called for follow-up troops, but before their arrival the advance army had already been defeated, with heavy casualties. At dusk the admiral returned to Paju. Although he hid the news of his defeat, he was deeply depressed, and at night he mourned the death of his close and trusted subordinate."

1593 年 1 月 25 日，明军被日军彻底击败，此后明军再未战胜过日军。
明军与日军侦察部队发生接触。次日 26 日凌晨，立花宗茂率 2000 人部队开始推进。自上午 6 时至 11 时激战后，宇喜多秀家指挥的 2 万日军接到战况通报，在汉城郊外的碧蹄馆展开决战，最终日军获胜（碧蹄馆之战）。此役明军损失惨重（一说阵亡 6000 人），提督李如松几近战死，但撤退至平壤。李如松亲兵李有升等 80 余名勇士亦战死沙场。此战失利令李如松斗志尽失，明军气势受挫，遂放弃武力驱逐日军的计划转而议和。关于碧蹄馆之战，《朝鲜王朝实录》记载："天兵持短剑、乘马，无火器。道路泥泞难行，倭兵持长刀奋勇突进。" "锐不可当。"朝鲜宰相柳成龙所著的《惩毖录》中记载，他曾为李如松军队筹措粮草等物资："李提督仅率北方骑兵，未携火器，唯佩钝短刀。而贼兵（日军）皆为步兵，其刀皆长三四尺，锋利异常，纵使激战亦能挥舞长刀劈砍敌军，人马俱倒，无人敢撄其锋。提督急调后续部队，然援军未至前锋已溃，伤亡惨重。暮色中提督返至坡州，虽隐败绩不报，然内心郁结，夜间为亲信部将之死哀恸不已。"

Leonardo Ho Follow
Toyotomi Hideyoshi couldn't even effectively unify Japan. He relied on forming alliances to gain control of Japan, a sign of incompetence. Consequently, after his death, his alliances immediately disbanded, and even his descendants were murdered by his former partners. Therefore, he wasn't a particularly powerful figure.
Even before his death, he also failed to win the war against Korea. This, of course, truly reflects the disparity between the Japanese and Ming armies. Even if another Japanese general had taken over, they wouldn't have achieved a better result.

丰臣秀吉连有效统一日本都做不到。他依靠结盟来掌控日本，这正是无能的表现。结果他死后，联盟立刻分崩离析，连他的子孙都被曾经的盟友杀害。因此，他并非什么特别厉害的人物。
即便在他去世前，日本也未能赢得对朝鲜的战争。这真实反映了日本军队与明军之间的实力差距。即便换作其他日本将领指挥，战果也不会更好。

Dan.Peter Follow
There is still no hope. If you really studied the Imjin War, you will know that the territory occupied by Japan was shrinking. Their outstanding performance was more concentrated in defensive battles, which is not a good thing for conquering a country.

依然毫无希望。若深入研究过壬辰战争便会发现，日本占领的疆域在不断萎缩。其出色表现更多集中在防御战上，这对征服一个国家而言并非好事。

Mark Ericson Follow
No, his death was the excuse to end the war and pull out. It had been going very badly for Japan even when he was alive. Japanese troops could not have survived another winter in Korea.

不，他的去世只是日本结束战争并撤军的借口。即便在他生前，战局对日本也已极为不利。日军在朝鲜撑不过下一个冬天了。

Tom Howard Follow
No, the Ming had the best cavalry and artillery. This was still an ace that the Japanese samurai could not resist on the battlefield in the late 16th century.

不，明朝拥有最精锐的骑兵和炮兵。在 16 世纪末的战场上，这仍是日本武士无法抵挡的王牌。

Anglo Edu Follow
No. The troops he had at his disposal were not enough even during the late 16th century.
His supply logistics were incapable of sustaining such a lengthy war. On a map it looks promising, in reality it’s not. The Spanish and Portuguese advisers to the Japanese, were foolish. They should of listened to the newly arrived British or Dutch traders to Japan by the 1590’s.
The Manchus were watching warily as the Ming Chinese and divided Joseon Koreans formed a weak alliance based on poetry and Court rhetoric. The West by this time was under a rising British Naval fleet that destroyed the Spanish Armada and its inept Navy. During ancient history, the Moors, Portuguese and Spanish were the kings of Equestrian land warfare, but the British with Welsh, Caledonians, Irish, Welsh, and Scottish naval officers were the terror of the seas.

不会。即便在 16 世纪末期，他所掌握的军队也不足以实现这一目标。
他的后勤补给无法支撑如此漫长的战争。在地图上看似前景光明，实则不然。那些为日本效力的西班牙与葡萄牙顾问实在愚蠢，他们本该听取 1590 年代新抵达日本的英国或荷兰商人的建议。
满洲人正警惕地注视着明王朝与分裂的朝鲜王朝基于诗文和朝堂辞令形成的脆弱联盟。此时的西方正处于崛起中的英国海军舰队统治下，这支舰队击溃了西班牙无敌舰队及其无能的海军。在古代历史中，摩尔人、葡萄牙人和西班牙人是陆上骑兵战的王者，但拥有威尔士人、喀里多尼亚人、爱尔兰人、威尔士人和苏格兰海军军官的英国人，却是令人生畏的海上霸主。

Dominic Roy Accampo Follow
The huge Japanese fleet was defeated very decisively by the tiny number of Turtle Ships that were employed by Korea thanks in large part to the brilliance of Admiral Yi Sun-shin.
NOTE: after winning a brilliant victory this same fleet, commanded by a different man was overwhelmed and decimated by the Japanese.
Then when Admiral Sun-shin was put back in command of the tiny number of survivors, by orchestrating the battle according to the advantages of his own ships, Admiral Sun-shin won yet another battle and then a third.
While when the Chinese fleet joined the fleet of Korea in the final battle the victory became a crushing blow to the Japanese navy of that time.
Now Hideyoshi might have learned from these defeats and modernized the Japanese navy but this would have taken a couple of decades or more to accomplish even if it was done under Hideyoshi.
While I doubt that Hideyoshi would have risked a second invasion attempt after the massive losses incurred during the first attempt.

日本庞大的舰队被朝鲜为数不多的龟船彻底击败，这主要归功于李舜臣将军的卓越才能。
注：这支舰队在赢得辉煌胜利后，由另一位将领指挥时却被日军击溃并遭受重创。
随后当李舜臣将军重新指挥这支残存的少量舰船时，他根据己方舰船的优势排兵布阵，李舜臣将军又接连赢得了第二场和第三场战役的胜利。
当中国舰队在最后一战中与朝鲜舰队会合时，这场胜利对当时的日本海军造成了毁灭性打击。
即便丰臣秀吉从这些失败中吸取教训并实现日本海军的现代化，这一过程也需要数十年甚至更长时间才能完成——即使是在他的领导下。
鉴于第一次入侵已遭受重大损失，我怀疑丰臣秀吉是否会冒险发动第二次入侵。

Mark Hamlin Follow
Toyotomi Hideyoshi did conquer Korea, with very little trouble, EXCEPT….
The Korean Navy made re-supply a huge problem for Japan
&The Ming sent an army and that army played it very safe,
giving the Japanese no opportunity for a knock-out blow,
leaving the dangerous work to the Koreans themselves.
If the Japanese had spent a year building up their navy before they began,
that would have made a huge difference.
Toyotomi’s death had little to do with the ultimate outcome,
the invasion was a failure before he died.
For the reasons I already gave.

丰臣秀吉确实征服了朝鲜，几乎没遇到什么麻烦，除了……朝鲜水师使日军的补给线陷入巨大困境。明朝派出的军队采取了极为保守的战术让日军始终找不到一击制胜的机会，明朝把危险的工作留给朝鲜人自己去做，如果我们在日本人在开战前花一年时间扩充海军，这将对战局造成天壤之别。丰臣秀吉之死与最终结局关系不大，在他去世前侵略就已失败，原因我已在前文阐明。

JOHn1988 Follow
Based on available data, the Japanese clearly underestimated the Ming 's military strength. Japanese pirates, previously engaged in raids along the southern Chinese coast, mistakenly assumed the southern armies matched the true strength of the Chinese. The elite cavalry and artillery units deployed to Korea from northern China clearly exceeded their expectations. (Of course, the southern Chinese army later produced outstanding generals like Qi Jiguang, who had significant experience in combating Japanese pirates.)

根据现有资料，日本显然低估了明朝的军事实力。此前在中国东南沿海进行袭扰的倭寇，误以为南方军队就代表中国的真实战力。而从中国北方调往朝鲜的精锐骑兵与火炮部队，显然超出了他们的预期。（当然，中国南方军队后来也涌现出戚继光等杰出将领，他们拥有丰富的对倭作战经验。）

Dong-Yoon Lee Follow
It was impossible. At the time, Korea only used a fraction of its national strength to drive out the Japanese. First of all, it didn't commit any of its border troops to combat against the incredibly tough Manchurian barbarians, even though the border troops were the most elite army in Korea at then. In fact, the Manchus offered to end the conflict and aid Korea as continental citizens, but Korea refused, fearing the Manchus would make demands on Korea after driving out the Japanese. In fact, the Chinese people had nightmare memories of the Jin Dynasty and know the Manchurians' competence, so they seem to have agreed without obxtion to the Koreans, who are more capable to block Manchus than them, maintaining the border defenses as they were even during Japanese invasion.

这是不可能的。当时朝鲜仅动用部分国力就驱逐了日军。首先，朝鲜始终未调动其最精锐的边境部队参战——这些部队专门用来抵御异常强悍的满洲蛮族。事实上，满洲人曾提议以大陆同胞身份调停战事并援助朝鲜，但朝鲜担心驱离日军后满洲人会趁机要挟而予以拒绝。中原民众对金朝有着噩梦般的记忆，深知满洲人的实力，因此似乎毫无异议地默许了朝鲜——这个比他们更有能力阻挡满洲人的国家——即便在日军入侵期间也保持边境防务不变的策略。

However, Koreans are fundamentally larger and stronger than the Japanese. However, they were mentally so weak during this period of self-restraint, having embraced and fully embodied Chinese Confucianism. Furthermore, we primarily winn gold medals in events like archery, sword fighting, shooting, and martial arts at the Olympics, all of which are combat skills. In other words, we are genetically gifted warriors. This potential was slowly awakening due to the Japanese invasion, and this alone made the Japanese feel the immense barrier of the continent. Had the war continued, Koreans would have unleashed even more of this potential. Koreans generally resist the liberation of their warrior nature because of their self-restraint and because of rejection of violence. Even when faced with an imminent security threat, they don't suppress their own restraint system simply by anger and revenge. In fact, this is why we have survived for thousands of years. We have never fallen into a fundamental self-disillusionment regarding our own survival.

然而，韩国人从体质上就比日本人高大强壮。但在这个自我克制的时期，他们精神上过于软弱，因为全面接纳并践行了中国儒家思想。而且我们主要在奥运会射箭、击剑、射击、跆拳道等项目上斩获金牌，这些都是战斗技能。换句话说，我们天生就是战士的料。这种潜力因日本入侵而逐渐觉醒，仅此一点就让日本人感受到了大陆的巨大屏障。如果战争持续下去，韩国人会释放出更多这种潜力。韩国人普遍抗拒释放战士天性，既因为自我约束，也出于对暴力的排斥。即便面临迫在眉睫的安全威胁，他们也不会仅凭愤怒和复仇就压制自身的约束系统。事实上，这正是我们延续数千年的原因——我们从未对自身存续产生根本性的自我怀疑。

However, if Japan had succeeded in a sudden attack and made Korea their own soldiers, the combined forces of Korea and Japan could have nearly conquered China. But was Japan capable of such a feat? Only the Mongols, who conquered all of Eurasia, subdued the Korean people through military force. And even that took 45 years. Because the successful conquest of Korea by a foreign power and its impact on neighboring countries was so rare, the Japanese still whine about the fears they felt when Korea, under pressure from the Mongols, formed an allied force and invaded Japan. (Kamikaze is the name of the typhoon that protected Japan from that attack.) China, however, has yet to experience that.

然而，若日本真能通过突袭得手并将朝鲜人收编为己方军队，日朝联军或许确实能近乎征服中国。但日本是否具备这种实力呢？历史上唯有横扫欧亚大陆的蒙古人曾通过武力使朝鲜臣服——即便如此也耗费了 45 年时间。由于外来势力成功征服朝鲜并影响邻国的案例极为罕见，至今日本人仍对当年朝鲜在蒙古压力下组成联军进攻日本之事心有余悸（"神风"便是击退那次进攻的台风名称）。而中国，至今尚未经历过这种境遇。

US We Follow
Judging from all the other answers here, I think it’s a resoundingly no.
The Japanese soldiers were ready to leave near the end of the war, and once Hideyoshi was confirmed dead, they all left.
Although it’s been argued that Hideyoshi’s death put the nail in the coffin of the Japanese retreat, had he continued living, the Japanese would have been further exhausted resulting in true defeat on the terms of the Koreans and Chinese vs how it went in the real timeline.

综合所有回答来看，答案显然是否定的。
战争末期日军已准备撤离，丰臣秀吉死讯确认后便全面撤退。
虽有观点认为秀吉之死直接导致日军败退，但即便他活着继续作战，日军也只会被进一步消耗，最终将遭遇朝鲜与明朝联军的实质性歼灭，而非现实时间线中的体面撤退。

Cian Mac Iosaig Follow
No. They couldn't do it when he was alive and extending the length would not change that outcome.
By the time of his death, the Koreans had reformed their armies and navies and while they were -on land at least- not as completely capable as the Japanese. The Korean Navy, however, was superior by his death as well, while the Japanese had lost a great deal of naval power meaning the nature of the conflict was always going to go against Japan at this point.
Japan's victories were not entirely impressive except early in the campaign either, so it's not like they were 100% superior to the Korean army. Japan also ensured enmity that motivated Koreans and alienated them as well by a large amount of deliberate destruction. The Samurai were hardly motivated either. They were essentially only fighting at all because of Hideyoshi. There was no threat to Japan.
Even if Japan managed to win, it would suffer holding it given the logistics and hostility of a populace. Feudal Daimyo would be want to be constantly drawn away from their own private holdings.

不能。丰臣秀吉在世时他们都没能做到，延长战争时间也不会改变这个结果。
到他去世时，朝鲜已经改革了陆军和海军，虽然至少在陆地上仍无法与日军完全匹敌。但此时朝鲜海军也已占据优势，而日本海军力量大幅削弱，这意味着战局发展注定会对日本不利。
日本在战役初期的胜利也并非完全令人印象深刻，因此他们并非对朝鲜军队具有 100%的优势。日本还通过大量蓄意破坏行为，既激起了朝鲜人的敌意，也使他们与日本疏远。武士们也几乎没有战斗动力。他们基本上只是因为丰臣秀吉才参与战斗。日本本土并未受到任何威胁。
即使日本设法获胜，考虑到后勤和民众的敌意，维持占领也将使其遭受损失。封建大名们会不断被调离自己的私人领地。

And while Hideyoshi was a skilled strategist and tactician, he was not ever on the front line, meaning the conduct of the war specifically was not going to change with him living. And he was quite old anyways.
Finally, the Ming. Ming China history has often stressed the impact of the Imjin War on influencing the Ming’s fall due to the cost of the war. However, the Ming hardly contributed their entire power and even a scant expedition was enough to bog down the entire Japanese campaign despite it being Japan’s main focus. the Ming were more distracted with the stepped, specifically in Mongolian, but also the Kitchen tribes. Most it's army was focused on Mongolian during the war, however, had Japan managed to start winning, the Ming would likely become much more likely to shift their focus, especially given the Jurchen (Manchu) were nearby as well. So, focusing on it after dealing with the other side of the Stepped would have been guaranteed. After all, unlike Korea, the Japanese were entirely hostile to the Ming with very little recourse to solve that animosity and so Japan in Korea would be a major inconvenience.

尽管丰臣秀吉是一位经验丰富的战略家和战术家，但他从未亲临前线，这意味着具体战争的指挥不会因为他的存活而改变。而且他当时已经相当年迈。
最后是明朝。明朝历史常强调壬辰战争因其耗费巨大对明朝灭亡的影响。然而明朝几乎未倾尽全力，即便派出少量远征军就足以阻滞日本的全面攻势——尽管这是日本的主攻方向。当时明朝更受草原势力困扰，尤其是蒙古各部，还有建州女真。战争期间明军主力始终专注蒙古战线，但若日本开始占据上风，明朝极可能迅速转移重心，特别是考虑到女真（满族）势力也近在咫尺。因此，在解决草原问题后全力应对日本是必然选择。毕竟与朝鲜不同，日本对明朝完全持敌对态度，几乎无法化解这种仇恨，日本盘踞朝鲜将成为心腹大患。

Hideyoshi’s war actually ruined a lot of power that he had built as it devastated those loyal more than this of more ambitious Daimyo. Ieyasu, for example, was almost entirely unaffected by the war. While Hideyoshi left a weakened loyalty for his son. Which, with Hideyoshi being a peasant, meant that the Daimyo were less likely to respect his son’s claim to power beyond being a puppet. However, that started when he was alive, and due to his war. People were losing faith because he was still alive to keep it going. By his death, he understood he wasn't going to win though. So living longer wouldn't really change that.
In the end, Hideyoshi would never have won. He lacked the understanding of those he was fighting. . He lacked the logistics to keep supporting even before the second invasion. He alienated and weakened his power and support. And the Ming were not as abysmal as people like to think, even at this point in the Dynasty. He couldn't win while living as it was.. All of Korea was never even taken, much less any Chinese territory, which was far more of a task even if the Ming were losing every single battle in some perfect world.
It was the worst decision the man made, and his life wouldn't erase that slip up by simply living longer.

丰臣秀吉的战争实际上摧毁了他苦心经营的权力基础，对那些忠心耿耿的大名造成的伤害远比对野心勃勃者更甚。例如德川家康几乎完全未受战争影响。而丰臣秀吉留给儿子的却是一个忠诚度削弱的政权。由于丰臣秀吉出身农民，这意味着大名们除了将其子视为傀儡外，更不可能尊重他的权力继承。不过这种情况在他生前就已开始，正是由其发动的战争导致。人们逐渐失去信心，因为他活着继续推动战争。到他临终时，他自己也明白胜算已失。所以即便活得再久也无法改变结局。
归根结底，丰臣秀吉绝无可能获胜。他根本不了解交战对手的实际情况。早在第二次入侵前，他就已无力维持后勤补给。他疏远并削弱了自己的权力与支持基础。而明朝即便在这个时期，也远非人们想象中那般不堪。在他生前战局就已注定失败...朝鲜全境都未能攻占，更遑论中国领土——即便在明朝节节败退的理想化假设下，那也是遥不可及的任务。
这是他一生中最错误的决定，即便活得再久也无法抹去这个过失。

Cam Carmar Follow
By the time of his death, the Japanese invasion, known as the Imjin War, was already failing due to a combination of logistical and military factors. Hideyoshi's death simply provided the final reason for the Japanese withdrawal.
Even if Hideyoshi had lived longer, several factors suggest conquest was unlikely:
-Japan lacked the infrastructure to sustain a long-term war on the Asian mainland.
-Hideyoshi’s regime was fragile. Prolonged war risked rebellion among the daimyōs.
-Despite internal issues, Ming China had vast resources and a formidable army.

到他去世时，由于后勤和军事等多重因素，这场被称为壬辰战争的日本侵略行动已然失败。丰臣秀吉之死只是为日军撤退提供了最后的理由。
即便丰臣秀吉寿命更长，若干因素表明征服计划仍难以实现：
-日本缺乏在亚洲大陆维持长期战争的基础设施。
-丰臣秀吉政权根基不稳。持久战可能引发大名们的叛乱。
-尽管存在内部问题，明朝仍拥有庞大资源和强大军队。