为何现有美国导弹防御系统难以应对中国DF-21D与DF-26B等高超音速导弹？是否有改进计划？

Jesuan Wu
Don’t forget the numbers.

别忘了数字的力量。

I don’t know how many interceptor missiles an American fleet can carry, and how many they launch at each incoming missile, but I’d wager they’d be depleted quicker than China can produce anti-ship missiles in a war footing.

我不知道美国舰队能携带多少拦截导弹，也不知道他们每枚来袭导弹会发射多少拦截弹，但我敢打赌它们的消耗速度会远快于中国在战时的反舰导弹生产能力。






And the Chinese missiles will be homing in on the American carriers in different ways from different directions. Sea skimming, high ballistic, sub-orbit hypersonic, low orbit atmosphere surfer, launched from inland, by the sea, from the air and underwater.

而中国导弹将通过不同方式从多个方向瞄准美国航母：掠海飞行、高弹道、亚轨道高超音速、低轨大气层滑翔，从内陆、沿海、空中和水下发射。

How many ways can you cook an American carrier?

有多少种方式可以"料理"美国航母？

China: Yes!

中国：全方位覆盖！

T. J. Wu
US can close all military bases surrounding China and reduce her budget deficit now that China is no longer a threat. Good for Americans for there is more money for healthcare, infrastructure overhaul, housing etc. But here’s the catch, MIC will not allow this to happen. Even if China is no longer a threat, MIC will look for other wars.

美国现在可以关闭所有围绕中国的军事基地并减少预算赤字，既然中国不再是威胁。这对美国人是好事——更多资金可投入医疗、基建、住房等领域。但问题在于：军工复合体绝不会允许这种情况发生。即使中国不再是威胁，他们也会寻找其他战争。

Peter Chan
What? You are wrong. China is so poor they only have 5 missiles. Meanwhile, US carriers have unlimited missiles thank to a cheat code they entered.

什么？你错了。中国太穷只有5枚导弹。而美国航母因为输入了作弊代码所以拥有无限导弹。

Thien Dang
Quantity is the boss, and overcapacity is the king.

数量为王，过剩产能即帝王！

Michael Sauer
Any air defense missile system is vulnerable to an N+1 attack. Sea based, land based doesn’t matter. Electronic warfare systems and potentially future directed energy weapons make the calculations harder, but still there is an upper limit to the number of threats systems can defend against.

任何防空导弹系统都难以抵御N+1模式的饱和攻击。海基、陆基皆如此。电子战系统和未来可能的定向能武器让计算更复杂，但防御系统能应对的威胁数量始终存在上限。

The capabilities of the attacking weapons can reduce that even further by requiring more ammo expenditure to have a good chance of an intercept.

攻击性武器的性能可能进一步降低拦截效率——需要消耗更多弹药才能获得较高拦截概率。

In the age of capable homing killer robots any fleet sailing into range will need to judge the balance of capabilities carefully - or just don’t.

在智能制导杀手机器人时代，任何驶入射程的舰队都必须谨慎评估能力平衡——或者干脆不要进入。

Christopher H
How many carriers can you…oh shit. I forgot. China can’t even design her own carrier. Let alone manufacture one. Meanwhile THE WORLD operates carriers since 1918 lol. Gotta love the ccc fanboys!

你们能造多少航母…哦该死。我忘了中国连自主设计航母都做不到，更别说制造。而全世界从1918年就开始运作航母了哈哈。中吹粉丝真可爱！

Peter Chan
China has the biggest carrier: China.

中国拥有最大的航母：中国本土。

Just because U.S. operated since 1918 doesn’t mean U.S. can maintain dominance. If it’s about how long, then China has been conducting warfare for 5000+ years, whereas U.S. is only 245 years old.

美国1918年就有航母不意味着能永远维持霸权。如果论历史长短，中国已有5000多年战争史，而美国才245岁。

Sebastian Shinehill
okay and? Those who fought then are long dead their ideas may still be around but the idea’s wont mean anything unless you have people in the modern Chinese military who can execute those ideas for a modern conflict with speed and precision.

所以呢？古代战士早已逝去，他们的战术思想或许留存，但若现代中国军队没有能将这些思想以精准高效方式运用于现代冲突的人，这些思想毫无意义。

Egypt has been around probably longer then China but they still failed to beat Israel a nation founded just after WW2. the Modern Chinese militaries last full scale war was against Vietnam in which they lost, after that the Modern Chinese military does not have combat experience like the US military does.

埃及历史可能比中国更悠久，但仍败给二战后才立国的以色列。中国军队最后一次全面战争是对越自卫反击战且并未取胜，此后再无美军那样的实战经验。

Emmanuel Enife
China can’t even design her own carrier
Yeah, they bought the Fijian from India

中国连自主设计航母都做不到。
是啊，他们从印度买了"斐济"号。（注：原文存在事实错误，中国航母为自主研发改造）

Andre Zonnekus
Those missile carriers look very CGI!

那些导弹运载器看起来太像CG特效了！

Jesuan Wu
LOL.

笑死

Sept. 3rd is just days away.

9月3日大阅兵近在眼前。

This is the first time you’re getting good intel before your superiors and your first reaction is CGI!

这居然是你比上级更早获得准确情报的第一次，第一反应竟是CG特效！

Time to dump some American stocks and buy into Chinese military stocks. The market will open well tomorrow.

该抛售些美国股票转投中国军工股了，明天股市开盘肯定大涨。

OTOH, those carriers may look CGIish because most of them are display carriers, not launchers. Many of those missiles on display are actually ship-launched and air-launched.

另一方面，这些载具像CG是因为多数是展示模型而非发射器。展出的许多导弹实际是舰载和空射型号。

Jesuan Wu
I wonder if China still keeps the 1000ish J-6 converted kamikaze drones around. Albeit their range would never reach the American carriers unless they come to the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.

不知中国是否还保留着千余架改造成自杀式无人机的歼-6。虽然其航程根本够不到美国航母——除非它们驶入台海和南海。

Tyler Rickel
Love how you guys act like the US is just sitting there on defense and waiting to be attacked in these situations. Like one B2 with 80 500lb jdams wouldn't be hitting anything Chinese.

真有趣，你们说得好像美国只会被动防守坐等挨打。好像一架搭载80枚500磅JDAM炸弹的B2轰炸机就炸不到中国目标似的。

Felix Su
No one can. Not even the Chinese can defend against these things.

没人能防住。连中国人自己也防不住这些东西。

The problem is the short time frx. When you have closing speeds of Mach 15 to Mach 20, which is 11,500 miles per hour to 15,300 miles per hour. You have 45 milliseconds to make a decision and then you have to move actual fins to intercept.

问题在于时间极短：当相对速度达到15-20马赫（时速11500-15300英里）时，你只有45毫秒做决策，还要实际偏转舵面进行拦截。

The hypersonic attack missile also has a computer onboard with a radar and IIR（注：红外成像） and knows that the interceptor is going to try to intercept. So while the interceptor missile is deciding what to do and then doing it, the attack missile moves at the same time. You can see the problem.

高超音速攻击导弹还搭载计算机、雷达和红外成像导引头，能预判拦截弹动作。当拦截弹还在决策和实施时，攻击导弹同时在进行机动。你明白问题所在了。

The interceptor moves, the incoming missiles moves. The interceptor misses. 45 milliseconds is 0.045 seconds. The time scale is smaller as the missiles close. So when the interceptor or rather the ship detects that the attack missile moved. The ship sends a signal to the defense missile and then the defense missile has to, once again, move. But that takes time.

拦截弹机动，来袭导弹也机动。拦截失败。45毫秒仅0.045秒。随着导弹逼近，时间尺度更小。当拦截系统（或舰艇）侦测到攻击导弹变轨，舰艇向防御导弹发送信号，防御导弹必须再次机动——但这需要时间。

Once they pass, there is going back. So more missiles are fired.

一旦错过就无法挽回，只能发射更多拦截弹。

This didn’t used to be a problem because incoming missiles didn’t move that fast. So a fast interceptor missiles can actually intercept. As speeds increase, it gets harder and harder to intercept.

过去这不是问题，因为来袭导弹没这么快。高速拦截弹确实能拦截。但随着速度提升，拦截难度呈指数增长。

So instead of firing 2 per incoming missile, the defending ship or ground installation might need to fire 10 to even get a chance at hitting the incoming missile. You run out of defense missiles really fast that way.

因此防御方可能需要对每枚来袭导弹发射10枚拦截弹（而非原来的2枚）才可能命中。这样弹药很快就会耗尽。

And that is JUST the time problem. There are other problems in shooting down high hypersonic missiles.

而这还只是时间问题。拦截高超音速导弹还存在其他难题。

One of the those is the plasma sheath. There have been some people claiming that plasma sheath gives you stealth. That is not what happens. The plasma is reflective and diffractive to radar. What’s worse is that plasma is non-uniform. It extends way way past the missile warhead.

其一是等离子鞘套。有人声称等离子鞘能隐身，实则相反：等离子体对雷达具有反射和衍射效应。更糟的是等离子体不均匀分布，会远超出弹头范围。

To use an analogy, the plasma is like a fun house mirror that changes from millisecond to millisecond. It makes radar unable to tell exactly where the incoming missile is. And it gives ghost returns. So the radar sees the missile as here one second and slight off the next second.

好比游乐场的哈哈镜每毫秒都在变化，导致雷达无法精确定位，还会产生虚假信号。雷达这秒显示导弹在这里，下一秒就偏移了。

You can see how well interceptor fare against incoming Mach 5 missiles in the Ukraine and Israeli war against Iran. Not well. They can hit but more often than not they miss. And these missiles don’t have active radar that allows the incoming missile to evade defense missiles.

看看乌克兰战场和以色列拦截伊朗导弹的战绩就知道——面对5马赫的导弹拦截效果很差。偶尔能命中但多数脱靶。而这些导弹还没有主动雷达导引头进行主动规避。

Add these two together and other problems and, for now, makes it almost impossible to intercept high hypersonic missiles. So the US and the Chinese and maybe Russians are trying to solve this problem. But this problem is not trivial and the current technology is barely able to deal with it.

综合这些因素，目前几乎不可能拦截高超音速导弹。中美俄都在尝试解决，但这个问题非比寻常，现有技术难以应对。

The Chinese have a possible solution. Use multiple radars to try and pinpoint the incoming missile and use AI to predict the path of the missile trying to evade. But no one knows how well it works or even if it works. Same for the US. The US is also working on a solution.

中国有个潜在解决方案：用多基雷达精确定位+AI预测导弹规避轨迹。但无人知晓其效果，美国也在研发类似方案。

But considering the real world performance of air defense missiles in the Ukraine war and the Israeli war, I would say that they’re not effective at all. According to Pentagon stats from Col. MacGregor. The actual intercept rate for incoming missile from the Patriot missile battery is less than 1% for hypersonic missiles.

但结合乌克兰和以色列战争中防空导弹的实际表现，我认为根本无效。根据麦格雷戈上校提供的五角大楼数据，"爱国者"系统对高超音速导弹的实际拦截率低于1%。

What do you call a ship that has run out of defense missiles? A giant target.

该怎么称呼耗尽拦截弹的军舰？活靶子。

John Kessler
One assumes that USN brass are factoring this reality into strategic planning for surface combatants. The ‘next generation’ USN will be and act quite different. No more ‘silver bullets’.

可以确信美国海军高层正在将这种现实纳入水面舰艇战略规划。下一代海军将会截然不同，不再依赖"银弹"解决方案。

Paul Denlinger
Where are they going to get the budget when they can’t even build new ships without South Korean help?

没有韩国帮忙连新船都造不出来，他们从哪搞预算？

Kurt Tesch
Lol ! “ According to Pentagon stats from Col. MacGregor. The actual intercept rate for incoming missile from the Patriot missile battery is less than 1% for hypersonic missiles. “
A BS claim from a BS source. No lixs predictably.

笑死！"根据麦格雷戈上校提供的五角大楼数据，爱国者系统对高超音速导弹的实际拦截率低于1%"
狗屁消息源的无稽之谈，果然没有任何链接佐证。

KCC
So what's your percentage? 90% as reported by the Ukrainian with zero support and conflicting number counting? Come on Kurt, don't be shy.

那你说多少？像乌克兰报告那样零支撑且数据矛盾的90%？别害羞啊库尔特。

Ken M
Us Government accountability report.
It found that in Iraq the missile battery crews were too busy to count properly.
The patriots were then downgraded to smaller less capable missiles for cost savings.
We've seen the use over Tel Aviv ineffective. We've seen them in Ukraine and entire battery launched and a ? If there was a hit or not.

美国政府问责报告显示。
伊拉克战场上导弹部队忙到根本没空准确统计战果。
之后为节约成本，"爱国者"被降级为更小型的低配导弹。
我们在特拉维夫看到拦截效果不佳，在乌克兰看到整个导弹连齐射后都搞不清是否命中。

James Flack
Can’t they?
US missile systems have been intercepting hypersonic warheads for decades. The Scud R11/R17 missile was hypersonic, and Patriot was knocking them down 35 years ago.
Ukraine is knocking down some of the Iskander ballistic missiles that replaced the Scuds in Russian service.
Oh, and Mr Weibo, just for you, the US Navy and Air force have leaked the entire technical specifications of all their anti- ballistic missile programs on a warthunder forum. Missiles, radars, satellites, lasers, the lot….

真做不到吗？
美国导弹系统拦截高超音速弹头已有数十年历史。飞毛腿R11/R17就是高超音速导弹，35年前爱国者就能拦截。
乌克兰现在都能拦截部分俄军替代飞毛腿的"伊斯坎德尔"弹道导弹。
对了博客网友，专程告诉你：美国海军空军已在《战争雷霆》论坛泄露了全部反导项目的技术规格——导弹、雷达、卫星、激光，应有尽有…