揭秘中国造船帝国

 
Rahul Kapoor of S&P Global Commodity Insights says shipyards in Japan and Korea have limited available shipbuilding capacity, and that removing Chinese made vessels will create a 'two-tier market', with Chinese ships freight rates being discounted.
 
标普全球大宗商品洞察分析师拉胡尔·卡普尔表示，日本和韩国船厂的可用造船产能有限，若排除中国制造的船舶将导致"双层市场"的形成，届时中国船只的运费将被折价处理。
 
 
@lagrangewei
many decade ago, US introduce a law that stop foreign ship from sailing between US port to try to bring shipping job back to america the end result is shipping companies just stop using US port directly, they would ship to another country than ship it back to the US. if US try to stop Chinese ship from going to US port, all that will do is cause them to unload their goods in canada and mexico and hire canadian and mexican trucker to deliver it into US. I could literally see this and I don't work in shipping. are you telling me no one in US media could understand this?
 
几十年前，美国通过一项法律禁止外国船只在美国的港口间航行，试图将航运工作带回美国。结果航运公司干脆不再直接使用美国的港口，而是先把货物运到其他国家，再转运回美国。如果美国现在想禁止中国船只进入美国的港口，唯一的结果就是中国会把货物卸在加拿大和墨西哥，然后雇佣当地的卡车司机运进美国。连我这个外行都能看明白，难道美国媒体就没人懂这个道理？
 
@CrzyD-cv8xz
It's not about doing something effective. It's about announcing they'll do something even if they know it won't work. Because if you say something loud and proud against a"bad guy" you'll get voter base approval.
 
这根本不是要采取有效措施。他们明知没有用也要高调宣布，因为只要对着"坏蛋"大声嚷嚷就能赢得选民的支持。
 
@taichiwinchester1102
It's the same with tariffs. Tariffs can be useful if implemented precisely, gradually, and used along with other tools. The way it's been going on right now it's going to damage the economy and potentially accelerate the decline of American manufacturing.
 
关税问题也是同样的道理。如果精准渐进地配合其他工具使用，关税本可以发挥作用。但眼下这种搞法只会损害经济，加速美国制造业的衰退。
 
@zdj-h9m
Simple and easy: tax Canadian and Mexican ports. Then, if there is absolute need for associated cargo, have unxed truck fleets to bring it into the US. If there is no need, give them as gifts to Canada and Mexico.
 
解决方法很简单：对加拿大和墨西哥的港口征税。实在需要的货物就让工会卡车车队运进美国，不需要的就当礼物送给加墨两国。
 
@HopesS101
China use to imports directs to USA port but after tariff imposed by Obama than Trump China imports to Vietnam, Canada and Mexico try to get around US tariff. The same way the USA companies use to ship products from China to Taiwan than ship from Taiwan to USA to pay less tax. Yes, they all know how to avoid tax and tariffs.
 
中国原本直接向美国的港口出口，但经历了奥巴马和特朗普的关税后，就改道越南、加拿大和墨西哥规避关税。美国的企业同样会把中国货先运到台湾（地区）再转口避税。没错，这些人全都精通如何绕过关税。
 
@wanderingquestions7501
The Chinese finish 7 submarines in the last 2 years. It took the USA 4 years to finish 1. They’ve built Next-Gen battleships that can launch hypersonic missiles, and drone aircraft carriers.. Then there’s the 6-Gen fighter aircraft that are space capable. They have a huge manufacturing advantage along with an army of engineers and scientists.
 
中国两年造了7艘潜艇，美国四年才造1艘。中国已经建成能发射高超音速导弹的新一代战舰和无人机航母，还有具备太空作战能力的第六代战机。他们拥有庞大的工程师和科学家队伍，制造业优势巨大。
 
@JCSY1
Spot on. Over boasting, overhyped, over dreaming and overconfidence. Not to mention over costs, etc.
 
一针见血。除了吹嘘炒作、痴心妄想和盲目自信，更别提那些离谱的成本了。
 
@peetfourie5193
Chinese over capacity.
 
中国产能过剩。
 
@JCSY1
Not overcapacity but great capabilities.
 
这不是产能过剩，而是实力太强大。
 
@criztaliz3413
Don't worry the US have army of lawyers
 
别担心，美国有律师军团。
 
@JCSY1
To do what. Outside the US, lawyers have constraints. They can't do anything much in China or Russia and other countries that are not their allies if they choose not to recognize them.
 
他们能干什么？在美国境外，律师处处受限。只要中俄等非盟友国家不认账，这些律师根本无计可施。
 
@mokulashi
China is already #1 , and the gap between China and US is increasing in light speed. China is already in 2050 while others are in 2025
 
中国早已位居第一，与美国的差距正在光速扩大。中国已经处在2050年，其他国家还停留在2025年。
 
@Placefriday
Momentum is on China’s side too, it’s compounding
 
发展势头也在中国这边，而且还在持续增强。
 
@alexlawcb
What excuse US use this time for the surcharge? xingjiang? Overcapacity? Unfair subsidies?
 
美国这次又要找什么借口加征费用？新疆问题？产能过剩？还是不公平的补贴？
 
@nulnoh219
They're dropping all pretense now. Straight out say they're building too much and we're not.
 
他们现在连伪装都懒得做了，直接明说中国造得太多而美国造得太少。
 
@happymelon7129
Then China surcharge all boeing. Have fun !
 
那中国也可以对波音飞机加征费用，大家走着瞧！
 
@alexlawcb
China is not that silly. China may just as well bought Boeing with her massive surplus.
 
中国没那么傻，它完全可以用巨额顺差直接把波音买下来。
 
@zhengguo3178
Why choose Boeing when you can buy from AirBus? Also China can build its own passenger airplanes.
 
有空中客车可选，何必买波音？更何况中国自己能造客机。
 
@livefreeordie7598
We need Boeing and Airbus. This would only hurt the shipping companies which are all American. I have never seen a more moronic policy at this scale and nobody dare to say how stupid it is.
 
我们既需要波音也需要空客，这种政策只会伤害全是美国企业的航运公司。我从来没有见过如此大规模的愚蠢政策，居然没人敢指出其荒谬。
 
@silluete
Haha higher port fees also mean it's more expensive for usa to export their products .making usa product that only have their expensive price as advantage even more expensive.
 
哈哈，提高港口费用也会让美国出口的产品更贵，使得本就靠高价撑门面的美国货更加昂贵。
 
@cuteandfunnyearthlings2863
The Chinese just need to make a small profit mean while US will charge you an arm and a leg and thats means highest profit as possible like theres no tomorrow.
 
中国企业只要微利就行，而美国企业会恨不得扒你一层皮，就像没有明天似的追求利润最大化。
 
@白也-m4c
你只需要知道，羊毛出在羊身上，关税不关税，根本无所谓，关税无论翻了多少倍，打的不过是一张面子牌，你只需要知道，并不是中国离不开美国，而是美国离不开中国，关税不管如何翻倍，最终的最终，买单的人只会是美国民众，而不是中国企业。
 
@aninda2457
America can never produce high quality ships at such low prices and at a faster price like China.
 
美国永远不可能像中国这样又快又便宜地造出高质量的船舶。
 
@tonychen7757
It looks like Americans companies even outsourced talking to India
 
看来美国公司连说话都要外包给印度了。
 
@joem0088
Nobody talked about Chinese ship building for decades (like eV) then suddenly the subject goes viral and its the end of the world.
 
几十年来，没有人提中国造船（就像电动车一样），突然这个话题就爆火了，搞得像世界末日似的。
 
@ChuckNorrizzed
We’ve outsourced everything, why not use the overvalued USD and purchase them?
 
我们什么都外包了，干嘛不用虚高的美元买中国的船舶？
 
@electricdreams1967
Back to square one - higher inflation
 
又回到原点了——通胀更高了。
 
@zdj-h9m
For much of the US, inflation is but a statistical game. NO bid dig, if there is one in the first place, at all.
 
对多数美国人来说，通胀不过是数字游戏，根本没有什么实质性的影响。
 
@Rubicon365
Companies and people are pragmatic when it comes to money... Everyone will want a cheaper goods or services with the same or better quality.. it's in economics textbook.
 
企业和老百姓在钱的问题上都很实际...谁都想要物美价廉的商品和服务，这是经济学教科书上写的。
 
@JCSY1
Exactly. That's why it is a losing game from the beginning.
 
没错，所以从一开始就注定会失败。
 
@donaldlee8249
China should charge extra for Boeing aircraft landing in China as a reciprocal measure
 
中国应该对降落的波音飞机加收费用作为对等措施。
 
@hc1897
Except that unlike the US, China actually thinks about how each of its policies will affect the Chinese people, so they are much more cautious and measured.
 
但和美国不同，中国会认真考虑每项政策对民众的影响，所以行事更加谨慎克制。
 
@dfv671
Japan and Korea are tiny compare to China, so no competition.
 
日韩跟中国比太小了，根本构不成竞争。
 
@Mr300zx90
THIS GROUP HERE ARE ASKING THE RIGHT QUESTIONS/ TO YOU GENTALMEN I ASK WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT PKU ROLLOUT OF PHOTONIC CHIPS USING BISMUTH INSTEAD OF SILICON THE NEW DEEP SEEK MOMENT NOW BEING PHRASED AS [CHANGING LANES]?
 
这群人问到了点子上了，各位怎么看北大研发的铋基光子芯片这种被称为"变道超车"的新技术动向？
 
@SSTan-cz7eo
America's aircraft carriers are more than 30 years old, some are more than 40 years. China's aircraft carriers are less than 10 year old, with the 4th coming in this year, I think
 
美国航母都超过30年舰龄了，有些甚至超过40年，而中国的航母还不到10年，而且第四艘今年就要下水。
 
@LandGrabbingIndia
I wonder where Indian speaker got the 60% figure. From Bollywood? The last time I checked, Bollywood historians taught Indian Chief minister, Biplab Deb, that "Ancient Indians invented the internet" and that is why he proclaimed to the entire world that "Ancient Indians invented the internet".
 
我很好奇印度人哪来的60%的数据？宝莱坞编的？上次听说宝莱坞的历史学家教育印度部长比普拉布·德布"古印度人发明了互联网"，结果这位部长就向全世界宣布"古印度人发明了互联网"。
 
@u2baccount67
I mean, US can ramp up shipbuilding for national security purposes, but to compete with China, South Korea and Japan in commercial shipbuilding is just simply unrealistic because of comparative high costs/prices. To charge extra fee for any goods shipped by Chinese vessels will only pass on the additional costs to end consumers in the US.
 
美国可以因为国家安全扩充造船业，但在商船领域与中韩日竞争根本不现实，成本价格差距太大了，对中国船只加征费用只会转嫁给美国消费者。
 
@LLee0
The US will not be cost-competitive if it is to revamp its ship-building capacity...
 
美国要是重建造船产能，根本不可能有成本竞争力...
 
@JCSY1
If a Chinese made ship costs USD 100 million and 6 months to build, made in the USA ships will costs at least USD 300-500 million and at least 3-4 years or more to build. If the US can produce 10 ships a year, China can produce at least 100-200 ships per year. Need extremely best of luck and ten-fold hard work to even go near in sight.
 
中国造一艘船要1亿美元和6个月，美国造则至少要3-5亿美元和3-4年。美国年产能10艘的话，中国能造100-200艘。想稍微接近点都得靠逆天的运气外加十倍的努力。
 
@白也-m4c
造船并不是单单的建造一个建造工厂就能完成，他需要一系列的同系产业链，与配套的设施与技术人员，正如F22的生产线，它不单单是关闭了F22的生产线，相应还关闭至少3000家一系列的零配件生产商与技术人员。并不是几个月几年时间就能够完成的。可乐饮料在中国只销售3元人民币，也并不是没有配方，而是一系列的相关供应链下游与销售渠道的铺垫，还有压榨到极致的价格，最终让人对它提不起任何兴趣。
 
@superphi
The US has Korea and Japan to help them build ships if needed so they r ok
 
需要时美国可以找日韩帮忙造船，没问题的。
 
@JCSY1
More costs and longer time. Great idea. That is why a lot of people are saying, China is living in the future (2050s and beyond), while the US is still living in the past (1980s).
 
美国造船业成本更高工期更长，这真是好主意。所以很多人说中国活在未来（2050+），而美国还停留在过去（1980年代）。
 
@windsong3wong828
Why not? The factories will remain in Korea and Japan.
 
为什么不呢？反正日韩还有造船厂。
 
@raylee5030
Korea has problems getting enough ship building work force. They are recruiting welders in Thailand, Myanmar, and Malaysia.
 
韩国连造船工人都招不够，正在泰国、缅甸和马来西亚招募焊工。
 
@beeman5015
India can help! Shinning India!
 
印度可以帮忙！印度大放光芒！
 
@Mr300zx90
INDIA CAN'T EVEN BUILD A SEWAGE SYSTEM, WHAT MAKES YOU THINK THEY CAN HELP BUILD SHIPS FOR THE WORLD
 
印度连下水道都修不好，还妄想帮世界造船？
 
@HimanshuKumar-mq5bq
India has the largest working population son and India's will be third largest economy in the world. If India invest in shipbuilding, it can easily capture lot of market share and this year India is receiving record FDI for shipbuilding sector
 
印度有全球最大的劳动人口，很快将成为世界第三大经济体。如果投资造船业，轻易就能抢占大量的市场份额。今年印度造船业吸引的外资已破纪录。
 
@yiplekhong5111
India can't even manufacture train wheels..they have order it from China...Ship building? Really?
 
印度连火车轮子都造不出...得从中国订购...还造船？你是认真的吗？
 
@byn135
u must be talking about the India in that parallel Spiderverse
 
你说的肯定是平行宇宙里的印度吧。
 
@taichiwinchester1102
India might be able to replace China as the world's top shipbuilder in the future (in a few decades). However a world where everything is manufactured in India instead of China is a world where it's India instead of the US or China that dominates the world's geopolitics. It's already bad enough for the US to become number 2, becoming the 3 is a nightmare.
 
印度或许几十年后能取代中国成为头号造船大国，但如果全球制造中心从中国变成印度，这意味着地缘政治主导权也将易手印度。美国当老二已经够糟了，变成老三简直就是噩梦。
 
@Supsup8566
Talk is easy. If it is so easy, by now India will be the world factory, not China. Let's assume you have the money, how long does it take for India to acquire the knowledge how to build?
 
说大话容易，要是真的这么简单，现在世界工厂就该是印度而不是中国了。就算有钱，印度要花多少年掌握造船技术？
 
@JCSY1
India help what? Ships? How many ships has India built? 1,2,5? Go and see how many ships China has built. It is like comparing a bright sunshine day vs a stormy dark night.
 
印度能帮什么忙？造船？他们造过几艘船？1艘2艘还是5艘？去看看中国造了多少船，这个差距简直就是一个天上一个地下。
 
@beeman5015
@JCSY1 India can manufacture the most beautiful ship in the world ! Incredible India!
 
印度能造出全世界最漂亮的船！真是不可思议的印度！
 
@JCSY1
@beeman5015 Yes in dreams and there are NO beautiful ships. Ships are ships, it is NOT a person. Most important to ships are safety, reliability, stability and the costs of building and operating it.
 
做梦去吧！船要什么漂亮不漂亮，又不是选美比赛。关键是安全可靠、性能稳定，还有建造和运营的成本，这些才是最重要的。
 
@wongpohchan9485
Nowadays, ships are floating coffins. With supersonic planes, missiles, rail guns, lasers, ships are toast.
 
现代军舰就是漂浮的棺材。面对超音速战机、导弹、电磁炮和激光武器，舰船就是活靶子。
 
@HENRISTARKS
For those LACKING in wisdom of AntiShip missile Warfare, with Hypersonic speed munitions? 3 minute rule and 6 minute rule applies. Simply due to course, speed, defense conditions of Targeted vessel. Level of Maintenance of Targeted vessel ie Daily, Weekly, monthly, quarterly, semiannual maintenance schedule and onborad spare parts. Supply Chain issues. All these factors play a role in Strike Parameters! Not every Watch Section is a Fighting Section. Unnecessary keeping of personnel at Condition 1 General Quarters or Battlestations, reduces Attention Span, and overall Battle Readiness. That is why Engagement Planner and Database Manager operating in accordance with Engagement Control Officer instruction, in Direct Compliance with Congressional Approved Rules of Engagement must be part and partial of such Engagement. Time of Flight of the Hypersonic munitions is the bane of the shooter. He must Forecast and predict Probable Enemy Courses of Action as the Hypersonic Munitions reaches Detection Threshold of Predicted Target. Other Marine vessels may be in the vicinity. Political Fallout if wrong vessel is struck has to be considered. The course track and altitude, way points must be considered to prevent a Retaliation response. Meaning a tit for tat exchanges are a wastage of missiles. Brief sharp destructive missile strikes are the rule. Ships that aren't sunk or rendered combat Ineffective. May still for a Command or Navigation beacon for Follow on Strike Protocol. A su ken ship can't be used a s a Point of Bearing combined with AIS A Information of current maritime vessel activity, in the local marine spaces. The Launch and Wait Protocol, and Assessment-Decide Loop begins. Surface warships deal with this problem every day at sea. This PRC vessel isn't a Game Changer or worthy foe. Compared to Nuclear armed Kynda, Kresta, Kirov, Slava, Soverrenmy class vessels of the Cold War. Merely New Toys for Rank Amateurs at Sea known as PRC.
 
给那些缺乏反舰导弹作战知识的人，关于高超音速武器的一些知识，它适用于3分钟规则和6分钟规则。这完全取决于目标舰船的航向、速度、防御状态。目标舰船的维护水平，即每日、每周、每月、每季度、每半年的维护计划以及船上的备件。供应链问题。所有这些因素都会影响打击参数！并非每个值班部门都是作战部门。不必要地让人员保持一级战备或战斗状态，会降低注意力持续时间并影响整体战备状态。这就是为什么作战计划员和数据库管理员必须按照作战控制官的指示运作，并严格遵守国会批准的作战规则并成为此类作战的一部分。高超音速武器的飞行时间是发射者的致命弱点，他必须在高超音速武器达到预测目标的探测阈值时，预测和判断敌方可能的行动方案。由于其他海军舰艇可能就在附近，它必须考虑误击错误舰船的政治后果。航迹、高度和航路点必须被考虑以防止报复性反应，这意味着以牙还牙的导弹交换是一种浪费，短暂而猛烈的导弹打击是规则。未被击沉或丧失战斗力的舰船仍可作为指挥或导航信标用于后续的打击计划。被击沉的舰船不能用作结合AIS A信息了解当前海域的船舶活动的方位点。发射后需要等待协议，评估-决策，然后循环开始。水面战舰每天都在海上处理这个问题。这艘中国舰船不是游戏规则改变者，也不配成为对手。与冷战时期装备核武器的Kynda、Kresta、Kirov、Slava、Soverrenmy级舰船相比，它仅仅只是中国的新手海上玩具。