Natural disaster leaves village erased, and people missing

原标题：自然灾害摧毁村庄，人员失踪

Over 1,100 evacuated but locals fear more than 100 still buried under debris as climate disaster strikes India’s Himalayan state of Uttarakhand

印度喜马偕尔邦遭遇气候灾害，逾 1100 人撤离，但当地民众担心仍有 100 多人被掩埋在废墟下

For Urmila Parashpe, a 48-year-old resident of Mumbai in the west Indian state of Maharashtra, it was a miracle to come out alive from the town of Dharali, which was swept away in India’s worst disaster in the Himalayas since 2013.

对于 48 岁的乌尔米拉·帕拉什佩（来自印度西部马哈拉施特拉邦孟买）而言，能从被夷为平地的达拉里镇生还堪称奇迹——这是自 2013 年以来喜马拉雅地区最严重的灾难

Urmila was with a group of six people in a car when she saw huge debris coming from the hills and descending upon Dharali, an important intersection to reach the Hindu pilgrimage site of Gangotri. It was in the afternoon of August 5 when the flash floods began.

8 月 5 日下午山洪暴发时，乌尔米拉与另外五人同乘一辆车，目睹巨型碎石从山体滚落并吞没了达拉里镇。这个重要交通节点是通往印度教圣地甘戈特里的必经之路

The human cost of the disaster is still unfolding. While Urmila was lucky enough to have survived the incident, Asha Negi, a local resident of Dharali, has been begging officials to search for her missing 40-year-old son Abhishek, who used to run a small Maggi and tea shop.

灾难造成的人员伤亡仍在持续更新。当乌尔米拉幸运生还时，当地居民阿莎·内吉仍在哀求官员寻找她失踪的 40 岁儿子阿布舍克——这个曾经经营玛吉面茶铺的年轻人至今下落不明

“I have not heard from him ever since the incident happened, and his mobile has also been switched off. Just tell me if he is alive and I will go home, or take me to the town and I will find him myself,” Asha was heard pleading with a security official at the base in the town of Matli, which was turned into a small base for evacuating people from the affected town.

"自从事故发生后我就再没收到他的消息，手机也一直关机。只要告诉我他还活着，我就回家，不然带我去镇上，我要自己找他。"在玛特利镇临时安置点，人们听到阿莎这样哀求一名安保人员。该镇已成为从受灾地区疏散民众的中转站。

According to locals, dozens of houses, hotels, and homestays, along with an unknown number of people, were swept away. Locals claim over 100 people could be missing and buried under the debris. 

当地居民称，数十栋房屋、酒店和民宿被冲毁，具体人数不详的居民被卷走。当地人声称可能有超过 100 人失踪并被掩埋在废墟下。

According to the Uttarakhand state government 1,126 people have evacuated from Dharali, as well as another town nearby, Harshil, which was also affected by the landslide. There are 68 people missing, including some 24 Nepali citizens.

北阿坎德邦政府数据显示，已有 1126 人从达拉里及邻近同样遭受滑坡影响的哈尔希尔镇撤离。目前仍有 68 人失踪，其中包括约 24 名尼泊尔公民。

The administration has been working day and night to restore the road from Uttarkashi to Dharali, which is about 70km away.

当局正昼夜不停地抢修从北卡什至达拉里约 70 公里的道路。

What caused the catastrophe

灾难成因

While the Hindu Kush Himalayan region is prone to natural disasters – in the last one decade over 3,500 people have lost their lives in this region –experts are divided on the exact cause of the latest case, though all point to climate-related factors.

尽管兴都库什喜马拉雅地区本就易发自然灾害——过去十年间该地区已有超过 3500 人遇难——但专家们对此次灾害的确切成因仍存在分歧，不过均指向气候相关因素。

Sanjay Vashisht, director of Climate Action Network South Asia, believes it was both a cloudburst and a glacial lake outburst that caused the lethal mudslide. “Had it been just water, then the water would have passed in some time, but the mud which came uprooted the buildings there. The walls of the glacial lake were breached from the left and right sides due to a cloudburst,” he explained in a telephone conversation with Reuters.

南亚气候行动网络主任桑杰·瓦西斯认为，这场致命泥石流是由暴雨和冰湖溃决共同引发的。"如果只是洪水，水流会在一段时间后消退，但伴随而来的淤泥直接冲毁了建筑物。由于暴雨冲击，冰湖左右两侧的堤岸同时发生了溃决，"他在与路透社的电话采访中解释道。

Mohd Farooq Azam, a glacio-hydrologist with the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, offers a different perspective. He believes several smaller lakes that were saturated burst in a cascading effect, with each breach helping trigger the next. “When it came down on the way, it helped other lakes to burst and finally all the material (slurry) came down in the valley bottom,” he said.

国际山地综合发展中心的冰川水文学家穆罕默德·法鲁克·阿扎姆提出了不同见解。他认为多个饱和的小型湖泊产生了连锁溃决效应，每次决口都引发了后续崩塌。"当水流沿山体下泄时，它引发了其他湖泊的相继溃决，最终所有混合物（泥浆）都冲到了谷底，"他解释道。

Azam rules out a traditional cloudburst, noting there hadn't been heavy precipitation but rather sustained rainfall over 24 hours. He also suggests an ice and rock avalanche might have been the trigger.

阿扎姆排除了传统暴雨的可能性，指出当地并未出现强降水，而是持续了 24 小时的降雨。他还提出，冰岩崩塌可能是灾害的诱因。

More disasters awaited  

更多灾难接踵而至

The broader context, experts agree, is that global warming is making such disasters more frequent and severe. “There is global warming happening and as a result the frequency of extreme weather events has also increased,” Azam explained.

专家们一致认为，更宏观的背景是全球变暖正使此类灾害愈发频繁和严重。"全球变暖正在发生，极端天气事件的频率也因此增加，"阿扎姆解释道。

The problem extends beyond melting glaciers and snow covers to include permafrost – soil that has been frozen for thousands of years. As it thaws, slopes are destabilized, causing land subsidence and landslides. “We saw it in the Sikkim disaster, where a permafrost-induced landslide triggered the Glacier Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) from South Lhonak Lake,” Azam noted.

问题不仅限于冰川和积雪融化，还包括永久冻土层——冻结了数千年的土壤。当冻土解冻时，会导致山坡失稳，引发地面沉降和山体滑坡。"我们在锡金灾难中目睹了这种现象，永久冻土引发的山体滑坡触发了南洛纳克湖的冰湖溃决洪水，"阿扎姆指出。

While the role of permafrost in the destruction of the Arctic is well documented, its impact in the Himalayas remains understudied. “Maybe in this event there was some role, but we do not know and we need to investigate it further,” he said.

尽管永久冻土在北极破坏中的作用已有充分记录，但其对喜马拉雅山脉的影响仍研究不足。"或许在这次事件中它起到了一定作用，但我们尚不清楚，需要进一步调查，"他表示。

Anjal Prakash, an associate professor at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy, frxs the Dharali disaster as “a warning from a warming planet.” Whether triggered by cloudburst, glacial lake burst, or landslide-induced flood, the disaster underscores the increasing unpredictability and ferocity of weather in the Himalayan region.

巴蒂公共政策研究所副教授安贾尔·普拉卡什将达拉里灾难形容为"来自变暖星球的警告"。无论由暴雨、冰湖溃决还是山体滑坡引发的洪水所致，这场灾难都凸显出喜马拉雅地区天气日益增强的不可预测性与破坏力。

Climate change, compounded by the fragility of the mountain ecosystem and unchecked development, is turning what was once an occasional calamity into a recurring threat.

气候变化与山区生态系统的脆弱性及无序开发相互叠加，正将昔日偶发的灾害转变为周期性威胁。

Unplanned development   

无序开发

All seven countries in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region (India, Pakistan, China, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, and Myanmar) are facing the wrath of a changing climate, but Prakash points to a second critical factor: “unplanned development” and the “rampant development which we are seeing in Uttarakhand.”

兴都库什喜马拉雅地区所有七个国家（印度、巴基斯坦、中国、阿富汗、孟加拉国、不丹、尼泊尔和缅甸）都面临着气候变化带来的严峻挑战，但普拉卡什指出了第二个关键因素："无序开发"以及"我们在北阿坎德邦目睹的猖獗开发"。

The areas affected by such disasters are poorly monitored, he noted. “We only come to know when something like this happens.”

他指出，受此类灾害影响的地区监测严重不足。"只有当灾难发生时我们才会知晓。"

Like Azam, PrakAsh Doubts this was a traditional cloudburst due to there not having been sufficient rain, instead pointing to glacial changes whereby a glacier turned into a water body with a possible breach occurring thousands of meters above where the debris originated.

和 Azam 一样，Prakash 也怀疑这并非传统意义上的暴雨所致，因为降雨量并不充足，而是指向冰川变化——冰川转化为水体后，可能在距离碎屑源头数千米高处发生溃决。

Solving this problem, according to Prakash, requires immediate action on multiple fronts: “There should be an immediate restriction on hazardous construction and enforcing land use planning, banning building on river banks and flood plains. There should be an environmental assessment in the fragile zones of the Himalayas.”

Prakash 认为解决这一问题需要立即采取多管齐下的行动："应立即限制危险施工并严格执行土地利用规划，禁止在河岸和洪泛区建造房屋。必须在喜马拉雅山脉脆弱区域开展环境评估。"

As rescue operations continue and the true scale of the Dharali disaster emerges, the incident serves as a stark reminder of how climate change and poor planning are creating a perfect storm of destruction in one of the world’s most fragile mountain ecosystems.

随着救援工作持续进行，达拉里灾害的真实规模逐渐显现，这一事件尖锐警示着气候变化与规划不善如何在全球最脆弱的山地生态系统中酿成毁灭性完美风暴。