如果美国在2025年陷入内战，就像19世纪60年代一样 网友：战争是流血的政治。政治是不流血的战争
What if the USA in 2025 descends into Civil War like it did back in the 1860s
译文简介
如果情况真是如此，那么哪一方会是联邦军，哪一方会是邦联军呢？将领们又会是谁？我们会有像米德、谢尔曼、格兰特、李、杰克逊、福雷斯特或谢里登这样的人物吗？武器制造商们会站在哪一边？像中国这样的国家又会持何种立场？
正文翻译
Positive_Rabbit_9111
I'll just list a few consequences I can think of:
我只列出几个我能想到的后果：
*Obviously the US is no longer a super power at this point and China will fill the void left behind by the US.
* 显然，美国在这一点上不再是一个超级大国，中国将填补美国留下的空白。
*The US is the economic centre of the world so expect MASSIVE economic fallout. Think 2008 economic crisis on every drug known to man
* 美国是世界经济中心，因此预计会产生巨大的经济影响。想想2008年的经济危机对人类已知的每一种药物的影响
*Western nations mainly the EU throw a shit ton of cash into their military in an attempt to fill the void the US left behind
* 西方国家，主要是欧盟，向他们的军队投入了大量的现金，试图填补美国留下的空白。
*Suppliers like Lock heed Martin will probably go with the one that has the most of their factories in it AND/OR who they consider the most stable/Business friendly/ legitimate
* 像洛克希德马丁公司这样的供应商可能会选择拥有最多工厂的供应商和/或他们认为最稳定/商业友好/合法的供应商。
*China invades Taiwan and Russia mercs Ukraine
* 中国将会解放台湾（地区）和俄罗斯占领乌克兰
*Generally a LOT of wars kick off because the US isn't there to keep things tidy anymore. Many dictators or corrupt people will consider this to be "their chance"
* 一般来说，很多战争都是因为美国不再保持整洁而开始的。许多独裁者或腐败的人会认为这是“他们的机会”
*At some point in the future after the war, if the US never reclaims it's superpower status then English will lose it's dominance is the lingua franca and probably be replaced by Chinese
* 在战后的某个时候，如果美国永远不恢复其超级大国的地位，那么英语将失去其作为弗兰卡的主导地位，并可能被中文取代。
*The next 20-30 years will probably be dark and chaotic.Historians will look back on this age as one of chaos.
* 未来20-30年可能是黑暗和混乱的。历史学家将把这个时代视为混乱的时代。
I'll just list a few consequences I can think of:
我只列出几个我能想到的后果：
*Obviously the US is no longer a super power at this point and China will fill the void left behind by the US.
* 显然，美国在这一点上不再是一个超级大国，中国将填补美国留下的空白。
*The US is the economic centre of the world so expect MASSIVE economic fallout. Think 2008 economic crisis on every drug known to man
* 美国是世界经济中心，因此预计会产生巨大的经济影响。想想2008年的经济危机对人类已知的每一种药物的影响
*Western nations mainly the EU throw a shit ton of cash into their military in an attempt to fill the void the US left behind
* 西方国家，主要是欧盟，向他们的军队投入了大量的现金，试图填补美国留下的空白。
*Suppliers like Lock heed Martin will probably go with the one that has the most of their factories in it AND/OR who they consider the most stable/Business friendly/ legitimate
* 像洛克希德马丁公司这样的供应商可能会选择拥有最多工厂的供应商和/或他们认为最稳定/商业友好/合法的供应商。
*China invades Taiwan and Russia mercs Ukraine
* 中国将会解放台湾（地区）和俄罗斯占领乌克兰
*Generally a LOT of wars kick off because the US isn't there to keep things tidy anymore. Many dictators or corrupt people will consider this to be "their chance"
* 一般来说，很多战争都是因为美国不再保持整洁而开始的。许多独裁者或腐败的人会认为这是“他们的机会”
*At some point in the future after the war, if the US never reclaims it's superpower status then English will lose it's dominance is the lingua franca and probably be replaced by Chinese
* 在战后的某个时候，如果美国永远不恢复其超级大国的地位，那么英语将失去其作为弗兰卡的主导地位，并可能被中文取代。
*The next 20-30 years will probably be dark and chaotic.Historians will look back on this age as one of chaos.
* 未来20-30年可能是黑暗和混乱的。历史学家将把这个时代视为混乱的时代。
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A second civil war would not look anything like the first one. Regular average joe citizen is not going to grab a rifle and go shoot another averge joe citizen. This is the age of precision rocket artilery, airforces, satellites, intelligent drones, and cyber warefare. Just becuause the idiots in russia and ukraine don’t have access to top level weapons doesn’t mean the US doesn’t
第二次内战与第一次内战完全不同。普通的普通公民是不会拿起步枪去射杀另一个普通公民的。这是一个精密火箭、空军、卫星、智能无人机和网络战的时代。仅仅因为俄罗斯和乌克兰的白痴没有获得顶级武器并不意味着美国没有。
you and I will not be partaking in civil war part 2 if it does occur. We will never know when it begins and when it ends. Whoever gains the upper hand in space, air, and cyber fronts, wins.
你和我将不会参与内战第二部分，如果它发生。我们永远不会知道它何时开始，何时结束。谁在太空、空中和网络方面占上风，谁就赢了。
Belkan-Federation95
It's impossible. Any civil war scenario would involve multiple groups, factions, and so on. It is impossible for a civil war with only two sides to happen in this country.
这是不可能的。任何一场内战，都会涉及多个集团、派系等等，在这个国家，不可能出现只有两方的内战。
But if it did happen, it all depends on who joins what side. Some states have higher production than others. Some have natural defenses. It's complicated.
但如果它真的发生了，这一切都取决于谁加入哪一方。有些州的产量比其他州高。有些人有天然的防御。很复杂
Artificial-Human
The United States military is infinitely more centralized than in 1860. Back then it was more so controlled by the states I can’t think of a circumstance where the military would fracture.
美国军队比1860年更加集中。当时它更多的是由国家控制的，我想不出军队会分裂的情况。
This_Meaning_4045
There would be multiple sides. The left wing and right wing militias can be two factions and the federal government is the third faction.
会有很多面。左翼和右翼民兵可以是两个派别，联邦政府是第三个派别。
Belkan-Federation95
I think there'd be more than three factions.
我觉得不止三个派别。
Remember the Democratic party and the Republican party are two big tent parties.
民主党和共和党是两个大帐篷党。
Queenfan1959
It’ll be more like Bastille day when the poor get sick of the rich and we start a revolution
那会更像是巴士底日。当穷人厌倦了富人，我们就开始革命。
AngelsFlight59
No it won't. A civil war is more likely.
不会的，内战更有可能。
Adventurous-Depth984
It’s more of a cold civil war. Nobody is going to take up arms and start killing people in an opposite colored state, especially considering how many people of both colors live in all states.
更像是冷战。没有人会拿起武器，开始杀害一个相反颜色的国家的人，特别是考虑到有多少人的两种颜色生活在所有国家。
It’ll be fought with stupid words on social media and petty political attacks
它将通过社交媒体上的愚蠢言论和琐碎的政治攻击来对抗
ImShaniaTwain
It'll be fought with stupid words on social media and petty political attacks
“这将与社交媒体上的愚蠢言论和琐碎的政治攻击进行斗争”
So.... No different than the last ten years?
所以.... 和过去十年没什么不同吗
Connect_Temporary915
All wars are political
所有的战争都是政治性的
Belkan-Federation95
War is politics with bloodshed. Politics is war without bloodshed
“战争是流血的政治。政治是不流血的战争”
Quietus76
There's nothing important enough to anyone to fight about. The groups that are that radical are so small, it would be more like a gang turf war.
没什么重要的事值得大家争那些激进的组织太小了，这更像是一场帮派地盘之争。
JuliaX1984
I hope it does. Let's break up this time. One MAGA nation, one sane. That's the only way to end this dictatorship.
希望如此。我们这次分手吧。一个伟大的民族，一个健全的民族。这是结束独裁的唯一方法。
AngelsFlight59
It's not so much a North vs South as much as it's urban vs rural.
与其说是北方对南方，不如说是城市对农村。
Living_Guess_2845
The MAGA crowd has been stockpiling guns and ammo since the first black president. It has been expensive and difficult to find those resources. A civil war will absolutely end in MAGA winning without help from other nations.
自从第一位黑人总统以来，MAGA 人群一直在储存枪支和弹药。找到这些资源既昂贵又困难。一场内战绝对会在没有其他国家帮助的情况下以 MAGA 获胜告终。
Lost-Juggernaut6521
Ultimately, most of this is dependent on what the military does. Is the military going to split off into different sides? Or, are they just going to start dropping cluster bombs on “enemy combatants!”
最终，这主要取决于军方的行动。军队会分裂成不同的阵营吗？或者，他们只是要开始向“敌方战斗人员”投掷集束炸弹！
SpaceyCaveCo
Yeah… maybe a big Civil Flame War on Twitter and FB. Might see some pretty mean buzzwords being launched, lol
是的......也许在 Twitter 和 FB 上有一场大的内战。可能会看到一些相当意味着流行语被推出，哈哈
ScalesOfAnubis19
If the US descends into civil war it will look a lot more like the Syrian civil war than the last go-round.
如果美国陷入内战，它将看起来更像叙利亚内战，而不是上一轮。
ChimpoSensei
Most Americans are very happy in their day to day and aren’t about to upend any of that for what the 2% on each end of the political spectrum are complaining about.
大多数美国人每天都很快乐，他们不会因为政治光谱两端的2%所抱怨的事情而颠覆任何一天。
MmmIceCreamSoBAD
You have to have a terrible sense of history to think Americans are about to start a civil war over some federal politics no one will care about in a year.
你必须有一种可怕的历史感才能认为美国人即将为一些一年内没有人会关心的联邦政治而发动内战。
mrshyphenate
You have a terrible understanding of what's happening in the US right now.
你对美国现在发生的事情有一个可怕的理解。
MmmIceCreamSoBAD
I live here, I understand it very well. Americans are going about our business the way we were a year ago. We have families and friends. We have jobs and go to school. We have dreams and worry about paying the bills. We're having kids. We're going on vacation. We have hobbies and interests. We have a very high median income.
我住在这里，我非常了解。美国人正在以一年前的方式处理我们的事务。我们有家人和朋友。我们有工作和上学。我们有梦想，担心支付账单。我们要有孩子了。我们要去度假。我们有爱好和兴趣。我们的收入中位数很高。
If you think the US is ripe for a civil war you're utterly insane
如果你认为美国已经准备好爆发内战，那你就完全疯了。
thexbin
In the 1860s the division was largely geographical. The north versus the south. Now the division is all meshed together. I can't even imagine what a civil war would look like.
在1860年代，这种划分主要是地理上的。北方对南方。现在，所有的部门都在一起。我无法想象内战会是什么样子。
Budget-Attorney
This isn’t really how it would work. A civil war doesn’t mean that everyone grabs a weapon and starts trying to kill people from the other party.
不是这样的。内战并不意味着每个人都拿起武器，开始试图杀死对方的人。
It would be a slow breakdown of order as federal and state officials impede each others constitutional roles; with an extreme outcome being violent conflict between one or more states against the federal government.
这将是一个缓慢的秩序崩溃，因为联邦和州官员阻碍对方的宪法作用;一个极端的结果是一个或多个州之间的暴力冲突对联邦政府。
dominion1080
Government approved anarchy.
政府批准了无政府状态。
myownfan19
I think it would be more like widespread thug type violence based on urban/rural, class, and political systems. Haiti might be a reasonable comparison, although not really.
我认为这更像是基于城市/农村、阶级和政治制度的普遍存在的暴徒式暴力。海地可能是一个合理的比较，虽然不是真的。
War is hell. Nobody wants that.
战争就是地狱。没人想那样
jckipps
It won't be a clear-cut line of demarcation for sure.
这肯定不会是一个明确的分界线。
It would look much more like the 2020 George Floyd protests, with the inner cities turning to anarchy. Farmers and suburbanites would be ganging up together to protect their block or their county, and chasing out everyone from their little 'kingdom' who doesn't agree with their views.
这看起来会更像2020年的乔治弗洛伊德抗议活动，内城转向无政府状态。农民和郊区居民将联合起来保护他们的街区或他们的县，并将所有不同意他们观点的人赶出他们的小“王国”。
Basically, there would be a thousand and one different parties or kingdoms out there, all trying to form alliances with each other and gain the upper hand.
基本上，会有一千零一个不同的势力或者王国，都在试图联合起来，占据上风。
DistinctBook
I think it is all talk from the lower levels but their leaders know if they leave the unx they will be in deep shit.
我认为这都是来自下层的言论，但他们的领导人知道，如果他们离开工会，他们将陷入困境。
ReactionAble7945
I don't think other countries would support anyone in a US civil war.
我不认为其他国家会支持美国内战中的任何人。
TreadingOnYourDreams
The rest of the world would descend into chaos without a functioning United States.
如果没有一个正常运作的美国，世界其他地区将陷入混乱。
HugaBoog
I think the rest of the world would sit back and chomp on the popcorn as long as it doesn't spill outside of its borders.
我认为，只要混乱不溢出国界，世界其他国家就会坐下来吃着爆米花看大戏。