如果苹果停止在中国组装iPhone，中国将承受多大的经济损失？KB：从长远看，中国获益巨大，苹果将付出沉重代价！

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam
Around 120,000 Direct Jobs and nearly 400,000 Indirect jobs in China come from making Iphone supplies and assembling iphones and making mother machines necessary to make the Iphones
大约有12万个直接就业岗位和近40万个间接就业岗位依赖于在中国制造 iPhone 配件、组装 iPhone 以及生产制造 iPhone 所需的母机。

That's 520,000 Jobs
总计52万个岗位。

Apple contributes around 36–45 Billion Yuan to the Chinese Economy every year
苹果每年为中国经济贡献约360–450亿元人民币。

However Apple earns around $ 17 Billion profits from China every year too
但苹果每年也从中国赚取约170亿美元利润。

I am sure China would ban the Iphone to kingdom come and close down every retail outlet in a matter of seconds, if Apple decides to close down their entire operations
我敢肯定，如果苹果决定全面撤离，中国只需数秒就会禁止 iPhone 并关闭所有零售网点。

The potential $ 17 Billion market for profits and $ 67 Billion for revenue automatically will be available to Huawei, Honor, Oppo, Vivo and xiaomi
那170亿美元利润市场和670亿美元营收市场将自动落入华为、荣耀、OPPO、vivo 和小米等本土品牌手中。

So yes there would be 520,000 job losses initially but there would in the next 2–3 years be a large gain in market share for local players who may absorb the workforce of Apple
因此，短期内会有52万个就业岗被裁减，但在未来2–3年，本土厂商的大规模扩张可吸纳这些劳动力。

Not to mention under Chinese Law:-
Apple must pay at least the next 5 years Employers Healthcare Insurance to each employee (10 Years / Life for employees who have worked for more than 10 years)
Apple must pay at least 6/12/18/36 months salary to each employee depending on tenure (Up to 5 years, 5–20 Years, > 20 Years)
Any Loans made to employees will be automatically deemed non repayable unless there is minimum 6/12 months warning
So China would gain a lot and Apple would lose a lot in the long run
更不用说，根据中国法律：
苹果须为每名员工支付至少未来5年的雇主医疗保险（对工作满10年的员工，最低支付10年或终身）
苹果须向每名员工支付6、12、18或36个月薪资，视其工龄而定（不满5年、5–20年、20年以上分别对应）
员工贷款除非提前6或12个月通知，否则自动视为无需偿还
因此，从长远看，中国获益巨大，苹果将付出沉重代价。


Jesuan Wu
Not much.
Because this had already happened, with Samsung.
影响不大。
因为这种情况已经在三星身上发生过。

Until the mid 2010s, Samsung was the No.1 smart phone brand in China, and pretty much with every fashionable electronics they sold really. However, in the Note 7 incident, Samsung China tried to sue Chinese customers reporting on their phones catching fire, this backfired spectacularly and dropped Samsung’s market share from 20% to less than 1% in a couple of years. And this also affected other businesses of Samsung. Samsung had to pull out its manufacturing from China, and moved it to Vietnam.
直到2010年代中期，三星在中国是第一大智能手机品牌，并在其他电子产品上也颇受欢迎。但在 Note 7 自燃事件中，三星中国起诉了上报手机着火问题的消费者，适得其反，市场份额在几年内从20%跌至不足1%，且波及三星其他业务。最终三星不得不将制造业务撤出中国，转移到越南。

How did it affect China?
Not much.
The Chinese workers laid off by Samsung factory moved to other brands, as well as Chinese smart phone users.
Today’s Chinese teenagers don’t even know what’s a Samsung any more.
这对中国有何影响？
影响不大。
被三星工厂裁员的中国工人去了其他品牌，而中国消费者转向国产机。
如今的中国青少年甚至不知道“三星”是什么了。


China - World Leader.
Of course China will incur substantial loss if Apple stops assembling iPhone in China but let’s stop with this silly question.
当然，如果苹果停止在中国组装 iPhone，中国会蒙受巨大损失，但我们还是别纠结这个“蠢问题”了。

Apple will not do this because it cannot afford to.
苹果不会这么做，因为它承担不起。

First of all, on March 2025, CEO Tim Cook on his visit to Beijing announced setting up a new clean energy fund in China worth $99.22 million to expand its clean energy capacity in China, and is part of the company's efforts to transition its supply chain to 100% renewable energy by 2030.
首先，2025年3月，CEO 蒂姆·库克访问北京时宣布在华设立一支9922万美元的新清洁能源基金，以扩大在中国的清洁能源产能，这是苹果2030年实现供应链100%可再生能源目标的一部分。

Apple has spent almost $500 billion over 30 years in China - embedding its supply chain that accounts for 80% of its products being produced in China. These are all what in accounting term is called SUNK COST like plants and dormitories that will stay in China and such facilities as power plants that as the attached article noted will transition to 100% renewable by 2030. Apple also invested in the training of all the technical staff of their supply chain to conform to their strict Apple manufacturing protocols. Do all these even hint that Apple is planning to go anywhere else soon?
过去30年，苹果在中国投入近5000亿美元，将80%产能深耕中国市场。从会计角度看，这些都是“沉没成本”——厂房、宿舍会留在中国，电厂等设施也将如上文所述于2030年前转为100%可再生能源。苹果还培训了整个供应链的技术人员以符合严格的制造规范。这一切岂有要“搬家”之理？

Of course Apple can pull up and leave but where could they' go? They' will have to first replicate what they have in China somewhere else that they’ve not even yet been able to. Apple tried to get Foxconn to try in India and everybody knows how that turned out.
当然，苹果可以撤离，但他们能去哪？首先得在别处复制在中国打造的体系，而这他们至今尚未做到。苹果曾让富士康赴印度试水，大家都知道那是什么结果。

Foxconn unveiled in early 2025 that its next business headquarters in China will be located in Zhengzhou, Henan province. The company is investing 1 billion yuan (approximately $137 million USD) to develop the new headquarters, which will span approximately 70,000 square meters.
富士康在2025年初宣布，其下一座中国总部将位于河南郑州，投资10亿元人民币（约1.37亿美元），规划面积约7万平方米。


Feng Lu
There's no loss. Suppliers will immediately relocate and continue to supply Huawei.
In fact, this has happened a few years ago.
Assembly workers will also relocate and return to assembling Huawei phones.
But the iPhone will undoubtedly be kicked out of the Chinese market.
不会有损失。供应商会立刻转向，为华为供货。
实际上，这几年前就已发生过。
组装工人也会转岗，去组装华为手机。
但 iPhone 无疑会被挤出中国市场。

Xamba Yangzoim
Apple’s market share in China currently is 15%, ranks 5th behind Huawei, vivo, OPPO, and xiaomi, all Chinese brands. If Apple stops assembling IPhone in China, China will incur high tariff on IPhone. Huawei will take Apples’ market share and employ assembly workers previously working for Apple.
So it would be a financial gain for China and a financial loss for Apple if Apple stops assembling IPhones in China.
苹果在中国的市场份额约15%，排在华为、vivo、OPPO、小米之后位列第五。若苹果停止在华组装 iPhone，中国将对其征收高额关税，华为将抢占苹果市场并吸纳其组装工人。
因此，若苹果停止在华组装 iPhone，中国将获利，苹果将蒙受损失。


Ted Chyn
If that were to happen, the financial impact would be limited. Apple would likely stop assembling iPhones in China only when it can no longer compete profitably with fast-advancing domestic brands like xiaomi, Oppo, Huawei, and others that have rapidly climbed the technological ladder. In that case, Apple’s losses would largely be offset by the gains of Chinese smartphone makers. Even if Apple shifted its assembly elsewhere, it would remain heavily reliant on Chinese supply chains for critical components such as cameras, batteries, and display glass—given that China is not only the world’s largest smartphone market but also offers the most advanced technology at the most competitive prices.
若真发生此事，其财务影响将有限。苹果只有在与小米、OPPO、华为等国产品牌竞争无利可图时，才会停止在华组装 iPhone。到那时，苹果的损失也会被国产手机厂商的增长所抵消。即便苹果将组装转移他地，仍然高度依赖中国供应链提供摄像头、电池、屏幕等关键零部件——中国不仅是全球最大智能手机市场，也以最先进且具价格竞争力的技术著称。


Cassandra J
That’s actually a very difficult question to answer, since it involves supply chain and value-added considerations, not just deducting iPhone sales revenue from China’s GDP ($390 million out of $18.74 trillion, IIRC).
Foxconn would obviously suffer loss of revenue. However, the company would survive. Apple is only one of its clients and Foxconn is only one of China’s 189 million companies.
Workers would be laid off, but since there is a labor shortage in China, for them to find new jobs would not be a problem.
The actual loss to China would probably be temporary and represent only a fraction of a percent of China’s GDP.
这是个难题，涉及供应链和附加值，而不只是从中国 GDP 中扣减 iPhone 销售收入（我记得约3.9亿美元／18.74万亿美元）。
富士康显然会损失营收，但公司能撑得住。苹果只是其众多客户之一，而富士康也是中国189万家企业之一。
工人会被裁，但因中国存在劳动力短缺，他们找新工作并不困难。
对中国的实际影响或许只是暂时的，且不过占 GDP 的万分之几。


Jon Haddock
Apple IS NOT stopping assembling iPhones in China.
Apple is only moving its US phone assembly to India to get round the tariffs, not the majority of its assembly.
The other 75% of iPhone assembly that the rest of the world has, remains at the high quality Chinese assembly plants…. Yes, the US only has 25% of iPhone production
Apple assures us the Indian assembled ones will be no different to the ones built in the original factory.
苹果并未停止在华组装 iPhone。
其只是在将美国境内的组装线搬往印度以避开关税，并非主体组装业务。
剩余75%面向全球市场的 iPhone 组装仍在高质量的中国工厂完成……是的，美国仅占25%的 iPhone 产能。
苹果公司向我们保证，印度组装的iPhone将与原厂生产的完全一致。