By Timofey Bordachev, Program Director of the Valdai Club

作者：瓦尔代俱乐部项目主任 季莫费·博尔达切夫

The most dangerous thing about Western Europe today is not just its decline, but its refusal to recognize it. The half-continent continues to posture, continues to lecture, and continues to imagine itself as a pillar of global order. But it has lost the internal resources that once sustained that illusion. What remains is a hollow echo of power, wrapped in a language of values that even those same Western Europeans no longer seem to believe.

当今西欧最危险之处不仅在于其衰落，更在于其拒绝承认衰落。这片半大陆仍在装腔作势，仍在好为人师，仍自诩为全球秩序的支柱。但它已失去曾支撑这种幻象的内在实力。残存的不过是裹着价值观外衣的空洞权力回响——甚至连西欧人自己似乎也不再相信这套说辞。

The region’s failure is most visible in its inability to make peace. Time and again, it chooses confrontation – with Russia, with China, with reality itself. Devoid of meaningful autonomy, it now functions as a permanent appendage of the US. It is no longer an actor on the world stage, but a supporting cast member, often unwelcome and increasingly irrelevant.

该地区最显著的失败在于无力缔造和平。它一次次选择对抗——与俄罗斯对抗，与中国对抗，与现实本身对抗。由于缺乏实质自主权，如今它已成为美国的永久附庸。它不再是世界舞台的主角，而是个常遭冷眼且日益无足轻重的配角。

Western Europe’s descent has been rapid. Just 10 or 15 years ago, it projected global importance and confidence. Today, the cracks are impossible to ignore. The reasons are many: Elite degradation, political inertia, a population gripped by apathy. But above all, it is the bloc’s unrelenting selfishness – its refusal to give, only to demand – that lies at the heart of this collapse.

西欧的衰落速度惊人。就在 10 到 15 年前，它还展现着全球影响力和自信。如今，其裂痕已无法忽视。原因诸多：精英阶层堕落、政治惰性、民众普遍冷漠。但最重要的是，这个集团毫不妥协的自私本性——只知索取不愿付出——才是衰败的核心根源。

Nowhere was this clearer than in last week’s failed EU-China summit. Eurocrats went to Beijing with nothing to offer, only with a desire to extract. China, which has no historical affection for Western Europe, responded accordingly. There was simply nothing to discuss. 

上周失败的中欧峰会最能说明问题。欧盟官员空手前往北京，只怀揣着索取之心。对西欧本无历史好感的中方，其回应可想而知。双方根本无话可谈。

And then, as if to underscore its strategic drift, the bloc offered a humiliating concession to the US. Faced with the threat of new tariffs, Brussels agreed to purchase American energy and weapons in vast quantities. So much for ‘strategic autonomy’. 

随后这个集团更以向美国作出屈辱让步来凸显其战略迷失。面对新关税威胁，布鲁塞尔同意大规模采购美国能源和武器。所谓的"战略自主"沦为笑谈。

These are not signs of a serious power. These are the actions of a civilization on the back foot, stumbling blindly into dependence. Anyone still speaking of a sovereign EU industrial or defense policy is either a fantasist or a liar.

这些迹象表明它并非一个严肃的强权。这是一个处于守势的文明体，正盲目跌入依附性陷阱。任何仍谈论欧盟独立工业或防务政策的人，不是幻想家就是骗子。

What then does Western Europe have to offer the world? One might say historical symphonic music. But beyond that, its legacy is one of oppression and self-justifying tyranny. Its technical achievements were built to subjugate others. Its political philosophy was designed to defend conquest and exploitation.

那么西欧能为世界提供什么？或许有人会说古典交响乐。但除此之外，它留下的只有压迫与自我合理化的暴政。其技术成就是为了征服他者而建，政治哲学则是为掠夺剥削辩护而生。

Fifteen years ago, I sat in a closed meeting organized by Federica Mogherini, the EU’s foreign policy chief at the time. The topic: Western Europe’s new role in the world. The one suggestion they could not accept was that the bloc should offer something to the world without expecting a reward. Their worldview simply doesn’t allow for that.

十五年前，我参加了时任欧盟外交政策负责人费代里卡·莫盖里尼组织的闭门会议。议题是西欧在世界的新角色。他们唯一无法接受的建议是：欧盟应当无偿为世界提供些什么。他们的世界观根本容不下这种可能性。

Even in climate change – a cause that should unite the planet – the EU has turned the issue into a cynical trade weapon, using green regulations to punish developing countries. 

即便在理应团结全球的气候变化议题上，欧盟也将问题异化为赤裸裸的贸易武器，用环保法规惩罚发展中国家。

The result? Western Europe stands alone. It has lost its power, and with it, its relevance. Worse, it doesn’t even seem to understand what it’s lost.

结果如何？西欧孤立无援。它已失去力量，随之也失去了影响力。更糟的是，它似乎甚至不明白自己失去了什么。

Can the region still pose a threat? Possibly. But not because it has the strength. Rather, because it has the recklessness. Its politicians lack vision, competence, or restraint. They cannot imagine peace. And so they default to confrontation – especially with Russia.

这个地区还能构成威胁吗？或许可以。但并非因为它实力犹存，而是因为它行事鲁莽。其政客们缺乏远见、能力和克制力。他们无法构想和平。因此他们只会选择对抗——尤其是与俄罗斯对抗。

The danger is not that Western Europe is ready to fight. Its people enjoy lives too comfortable to risk. Its defense industry is in disrepair. But wars can begin through stupidity as well as strength. EU elites, betting on regime change in Moscow, continue to pour weapons into Ukraine. Some dream of extending the conflict into the Baltics. Others talk of arming mercenaries to fight Russia directly.

危险之处不在于西欧准备开战。那里的人民生活过于安逸，不愿冒险。其国防工业也破败不堪。但战争既可能因实力而爆发，也可能因愚蠢而引发。欧盟精英们押注莫斯科政权更迭，持续向乌克兰输送武器。有人梦想将冲突扩大到波罗的海国家。还有人讨论武装雇佣兵直接与俄罗斯作战。

The Americans won’t die for Europe. That much is clear. But the EU may yet drag the world into catastrophe, simply by being incapable of restraint.

美国人不会为欧洲赴死。这一点很明确。但欧盟仍可能将世界拖入灾难，仅仅因为它缺乏克制能力。

If by some miracle a wider war is avoided, what then? What is Western Europe’s future? A museum of irrelevance? A vassal of Washington?

如果奇迹般地避免了一场大规模战争，接下来呢？西欧的未来是什么？一座无关紧要的博物馆？还是华盛顿的附庸？

Already it is falling behind in science, in technology, in global influence. It doesn’t know where it belongs, and is incapable of adjusting. It will become a permanent satellite of the US – militarily, politically, and economically. Key industries will be handed over. National elites will lose the power to govern. 

它已经在科学、技术和全球影响力方面落后。它不知道自己属于哪里，也无法适应。它将成为美国永久的卫星国——军事上、政治上和经济上都是如此。关键产业将被拱手相让。国家精英将失去治理权力。

The Collective West as we know it will vanish. In its place: America, and a few adjacent territories managed by obedient proxies.

我们所熟知的集体西方将消失。取而代之的是：美国，以及由顺从代理人管理的少数邻近地区。

Perhaps this is what Western Europe deserves. It is certainly the path it has chosen.

或许这正是西欧应得的结局。这无疑是它自己选择的道路。