假如美国分裂，谁能在美国内战中获胜？

Certain-Appeal-6277
Green has the most population, industry, and economy. Red doesn't have enough population to be a serious contender. Blue is saddled with some of the poorest and least developed states in the unx, which are going to drag down their more productive regions. Whereas Yellow is basically Los Angeles, Phoenix, and a whole lot of desert. Assuming they're not allowed to form temporary alliances it's hard to see how Green doesn't sweep the board.
 
绿方拥有最多的人口、工业和经济。红方人口不足，不足以成为有力的竞争者。蓝方背负着联盟中一些最贫穷、最不发达的州的重担，这些州将拖累其生产力较高的地区。而黄方基本上是由洛杉矶、凤凰城和一大片沙漠组成的。假设他们不被允许结成临时联盟，那么很难想象绿方不会横扫全场。
 
patoriginal
Also intelligence. FBI, CIA, NGA, NSA, NRO, etc. are all based in blue.
Edit- meant to say green not blue
 
还有情报部门 —— FBI、CIA、NGA、NSA、NRO等等都以蓝方为基地。
 
编辑：意思是绿方而不是蓝方。
 
blingblingmofo
Red has all of the tech and AI/Drone and GDP per capita dominance. They can buy an army.
As you mention, the right 2/3rd is mostly empty too, so they have a lot of land that protects their economic hubs from easy invasion. Green and blue will have to duke it as they are so close to each other.
 
红方拥有所有科技、人工智能/无人机，人均GDP也遥遥领先。他们可以购买军队。
 
正如你所说，右侧三分之二的区域也基本空旷，所以他们拥有大量土地，可以保护他们的经济中心免遭轻易入侵。由于彼此距离太近，绿方和蓝方必须进行缠斗。
 
WhatRUsernamesUsed4
Major Command AFBs by color:
Green - AFMC
Yellow - AETC
Blue - ACC, AFGSC, AFRC, AFSOC, AMC.
Blue also gets a significant amount of F-22s with Langley and every B-2 in existence with Whiteman. Blue also has Naval Station Norfolk, Homeport of USS Gerald Ford, the only Ford class supercarrier in service.
 
主要空军基地：
 
绿方 - 空军司令部 (AFMC)
黄方 - 空军司令部 (AETC)
蓝方 - 空军司令部 (ACC)、空军全球司令部 (AFGSC)、空军司令部 (AFRC)、空军特种作战司令部 (AFSOC)、空军陆军司令部 (AMC)。
蓝方还拥有兰利基地的大量F-22战机和怀特曼基地的所有现役B-2轰炸机。蓝方还拥有诺福克海军基地，该基地是杰拉尔德·福特号航空母舰的母港，该航母是唯一一艘现役的福特级超级航母。
 
PikaPriest
Red has the entire ICBM arsenal, about three quarters of the nuclear bomber squadrons, and roughly a third of the nuclear submarines based out of the seattle/san fran ports.
Only San Diego remains navally which has two boomers home port there, i believe. Then, a few bomber squadrons out of nm and Texas. The rest are all stationed in red.
Just on that alone, red is the clear victor. Nobody would dare to attack them. When you realize that nearly the entire us nuclear arsenal is in that quadrant of the country, even when it's on standby, it's hard to ignore that
It's not just that geography and cities that matter, it's where the assets of the united states military lie, and our most powerful weaponry is mostly stationed (and controlled from) in red.
 
红方拥有全部洲际弹道导弹库、约四分之三的核轰炸机中队，以及约三分之一的核潜艇驻扎在西雅图/旧金山港。
 
只有圣地亚哥港保留了海军，我相信那里有两架轰炸机母港。此外，还有来自新墨西哥州和德克萨斯州的几个轰炸机中队。其余的都驻扎在红方。
 
仅凭这一点，红方就占据了绝对优势。没有人敢攻击他们。当你意识到几乎整个美国核武库都驻扎在该地区时，即使处于待命状态，你也很难忽视这一点。
 
重要的不仅仅是地理位置和城市，还有美国军事资产的所在地，而我们最强大的武器大多驻扎（并由其控制）在红方。
 
Gadgetgeek_Ude
Green wouldn't win because they'd be too busy fighting their own civil war. The Midwest would never accept the leadership of New England. Hell we'd prolly defect and join red.
 
绿方赢不了，因为他们忙于打自己的内战。中西部永远不会接受新英格兰的领导。我们很可能会叛逃，加入红方。
 
Certain-Appeal-6277
If colors were allowed to break down/defect, the whole thing would instantly fall apart. The differences between the Midwest and the Northeast are smaller than the difference between the West Coast and the interior West, so red and yellow would also fall apart quickly. As for blue, it's fairly culturally coherent, but it's not economically viable. Without the rest of the country, the prosperous areas in east Texas, around Atlanta, and in parts of Florida wouldn't be able to afford to make up the difference in what the Federal government currently pays to those states. They wouldn't be able to afford peacetime levels of expenditure, let alone to fight a war. There are scenarios for a divided United States that are based on careful research and analysis. This isn't one of them.
 
如果任由颜方肢解/叛逃，整个体系就会瞬间崩塌。中西部和东北部之间的差异小于西海岸和西部内陆之间的差异，因此红方和黄方也会迅速崩塌。
至于蓝方，它在文化上相当连贯，但在经济上却不太行。如果没有美国其他地区的支持，德克萨斯州东部、亚特兰大周边以及佛罗里达州部分地区的富裕地区将无力弥补联邦政府目前支付给这些州的差额。他们无力承担和平时期的支出，更不用说打仗了。基于仔细的研究和分析，存在一些分裂美国的可能情景。但这并非其中之一。
 
ALPHA_sh
Kansas.
 
堪萨斯州会赢。
 
hotbiscut2
I think green tbh
 
我觉得绿方（会赢）
 
hakumiogin
Green is the only color with no nuclear capabilities what-so-ever. Every other color has access to thousands of nukes. I think green is first to go if things get serious since green can't really retaliate.
 
绿方是唯一一个没有任何核能力的颜方。其他颜方都有成千上万的核弹。我认为如果事态严重，绿方会是第一个被淘汰的，因为绿方根本无法真正反击。
 
dartyus
I find it incredibly unlikely that an American splinter state would consider a nuclear strike on another.
 
我认为，美国的一个分裂国家考虑对另一个国家实施核打击的可能性极小。
 
Safe-Attorney-5188
Green has by far the best industry and survivability. Red doesnt have to population to be much of a threat
 
绿方拥有迄今为止最好的工业和生存能力。红方不需要（动员）人口就可以构成很大的威胁。
 
 
blingblingmofo
Red has all of the tech and AI/Drone and GDP per capita dominance. They can buy an army. Microsoft, Google, and Amazon can shut off all the cloud infrastructure of the other states. Facebook will spread disinformation campaigns and propaganda.
2/3rd is mostly empty too, so they have a lot of land that protects their economic hubs from easy invasion. Green and blue will have to duke it as they are so close to each other.
 
红方拥有所有科技、人工智能/无人机，人均GDP也遥遥领先。他们可以购买军队。微软、谷歌和亚马逊可以关闭其他州的所有云基础设施。Facebook将散播虚假信息和宣传。
 
三分之二的土地也基本空旷，所以他们拥有大量土地，可以保护其经济中心免遭轻易入侵。由于彼此距离太近，绿方和蓝方将不得不展开争夺。
 
Naive-Range3483
Blue has most of Texas population. It does have some of the poorest states yes but its terrain would make invasion unthinkable. Not to mention I’m willing to wager it’s the most armed per person. (Don’t care to look it up)
Green probably might win due to the above stated reasons tho.
 
蓝方拥有德克萨斯州的大部分人口。它确实拥有一些最贫穷的州，但其地形使得入侵不可想象。更何况我敢打赌，按人均武装人数计算，它是全美最高的。（懒得查了）
 
不过，绿方可能因为上述原因获胜。
 
Melliorin
Red. No contest. Navy & nukes, all in Red.
 
红方。毫无争议，海军和核潜艇，全压红方。
 
stratusmonkey
Red has almost all the land-based nukes and blue has the overwhelming majority of conventional forces
 
红方拥有几乎所有的陆基核武器，蓝方拥有绝大多数的常规力量
 
Odd_Investigator8480
Red, we have all the big mountains and a shit ton of hunting, gun loving people, and yes, the militant bigoted Mormons
 
红色，我们有大山和一大群狩猎者、枪支爱好者，当然还有好战的偏执的摩门教徒
 
Lemmy_Axe_U_Sumphin
SoCal + Texas can’t be beat
 
南加州和德州是不可战胜的。
 
Sonoma_Cyclist
People seriously do not understand how big the population of Southern California is. And while it seems counterintuitive, California has a HUGE gun market.
 
人们真的不了解南加州人口有多大。虽然这听起来违反直觉，但加州拥有巨大的枪支市场。
 
Lemmy_Axe_U_Sumphin
Yep 24 million of us. Lots of military, Edwards, China lake, Pendleton, Vandenburg, and multiple deep water ports housing 1/4 of the navy. Tons of agriculture. Geographic advantages like an ocean and 10,000 foot mountain ranges shielding us from inland with 100’s of miles of inhospitable desert behind that. Our weaknesses are water and a dense population that 1 or 2 big bomb could easily wipe out.
 
是的，有2400万人。这里有很多军事基地，比如爱德华兹港、中国湖港、彭德尔顿港、范登堡港，以及容纳了四分之一海军的多个深水港。还有大量的农业。地理优势包括海洋和10000英尺高的山脉，它们将我们与内陆地区隔开，而山脉背后则是绵延数百英里的荒凉沙漠。我们的弱点是水资源和人口稠密，一两颗大型炸弹就能轻易摧毁它们。
Sonoma_Cyclist
Excellent points! People think of California and they think Malibu, Hollywood, LA. But forget 1/3 of the nations food comes from the San Joaquin Valley and it’s largely rural (with some dense population hubs as you mentioned)
 
观点很棒！人们想到加州，就会想到马里布、好莱坞、洛杉矶。但别忘了，美国三分之一的食物来自圣华金谷，而且那里大部分是农村地区（正如你提到的，有一些人口密集的枢纽）。
 
Tidbit_77
If anyone thinks the answer is anything other than Blue, you are simply incorrect. Blue include the majority of Texas Population all the way across to Key West and up to Rural Virginia.
America has more guns than people. Would anyone like to guess where most of those guns live? Hint: it’s not in Utah, it’s not in Vermont, it’s not in Colorado…
Tennessee, Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Kentucky….
Literally a hoard of Gun Toatin Cavalry and weaponized Alligators. How is this a real question?
You aren’t gonna win any wars with Northern Factories, Banks, or even higher population when my friends have “Legal” Assault rifles enough for themselves and their extended families.
Blue is winning this. It’s not even close.
 
如果有人认为答案不是“蓝方”，那他就错了。“蓝方”涵盖了德克萨斯州的大部分人口，从基韦斯特一直延伸到弗吉尼亚州的乡村地区。
 
美国的枪支比人口还多。有人想猜猜这些枪支大部分藏在哪里吗？提示：不在犹他州，不在佛蒙特州，也不在科罗拉多州……
田纳西州、德克萨斯州、路易斯安那州、阿拉巴马州、肯塔基州……
简直就是一大堆持枪骑兵和武装短吻鳄。这（只楼主提出“内战谁会赢”这事）怎么能算是一个真正（有效）的问题呢？
 
当我的朋友们拥有足够自己和家人使用的“合法”突击步枪时，你根本不可能赢得任何与北方工厂、银行甚至更多人口的战争。
蓝方正在赢得这场战争。它甚至没人能望其项背。
 
Symptomatic_Sand
Green is a powerhouse they're gonna have to deal with, I'd like to see that showdown
 
绿方是一支强队，他们（蓝方）必须应对，我想看看这场对决。
 
googlesomethingonce
Red, they have most of the nukes and oil
 
红方赢，他们有最多的核武库和石油。
 
Party-Bug7342
Codes are in green though
 
但核武发射密码掌握在绿方手里。
 
Reaper_1414_
Green loses easily a war on two fronts
 
绿方在两线战争中很容易输。
 
hscrimson
Lose to who? The south is too poor to effectively do anything, and the NW population is tiny comparably
 
输给谁？
南方太穷，干不了什么事，而西北地区的人口相对较少。
 
Impressive_Net_116
South is relatively poor compared to the rest of the US. It isn't actually poor. Poorest of the richest is still rich.
Take Mississippi, the poorest state in the unx. It's got the lowest homeless population, the highest buying power of the dollar, and a GDP per capita higher than France and close to Germany.
 
与美国其他地区相比，南部地区相对贫穷。其实它并不贫穷。最穷的人仍然是富人。
以密西西比州为例，它是美国最贫穷的州。它的无家可归人口数量最低，美元购买力最高，人均GDP高于法国，接近德国。
 
Reaper_1414_
Red. The San Francisco and Seattle crackheads alone take out Greens NY Blues Florida & Yellows Houston. Not to mention Reds Billionaires in Silicon Valley and Las Vegas far exceed Greens NY Blues Florida and Yellows Las Angeles. Red also has Midwest land for resources and the most diverse landscapes. Lastly Hawaii and Alaska would most likely back up Red as reinforcements. Yellow implodes and succeeds to Mexico. Green loses a fight on two fronts. Blue gets overwhelmed. Red wins.
 
红方。仅旧金山和西雅图的人才库就击败了绿方的纽约、蓝方的佛罗里达和黄方的休斯顿。更不用说，红方在硅谷和拉斯维加斯的亿万富翁数量远远超过绿方、纽约蓝方、佛罗里达和黄方的洛杉矶。
红方还拥有中西部丰富的资源和最多样化的地貌。最后，夏威夷和阿拉斯加很可能成为红方的增援。黄方内讧，并成功占领墨西哥。绿方在两线作战中落败。蓝方被彻底击溃。红方获胜。
 
dartyus
Blue and red just aren’t even in the running. I give it to Green cause Green has better access to Blue’s resources. Maybe if yellow could peacefully annex red somehow and immediately annex Florida, they’d have a chance, but frankly Green has the edge in almost every strategic category, the big one being diplomacy. It totally depends on what the other countries of the world are even doing but immediately Green has the strongest economic ties with Canada and the EU, whereas Yellow is diplomatically isolated with only Mexico as an immediate neighbour for support.
 
红蓝两方根本就没机会竞争。我看好绿方，因为绿方更容易获得蓝方的资源。如果黄方能和平吞并红方，并立即吞并佛罗里达，或许他们还有机会。但坦白说，绿方在几乎所有战略领域都占优势，其中最重要的就是外交。
这完全取决于世界其他国家的动向，但绿党与加拿大和欧盟的经济联系最为紧密，而黄党在外交上处于孤立状态，只有墨西哥这个近邻可以提供支持。
 
Net_Use
Better question: where would you have to put the “center” of the split for it to be a perfectly even match between all four sides
 
更好的问题是：为了使四边完全均匀匹配，你必须把分割的“中心”放在哪里
 
Felis1977
China
 
中国胜
 
cornernope
Everyone is missing the most important aspects of war, food, water, and terrain. Green not only has the most industry, its the breadbasket of the whole country. It has access to the largest source of freshwater on the planet. You can use the great leaks and Appalachian mountains as natural barriers to moving armies.
 
每个人都忽略了战争中最重要的因素：食物、水和地形。绿方不仅拥有最多的工业，还是全国的粮仓。它拥有地球上最大的淡水资源。你可以利用大漏水口和阿巴拉契亚山脉作为阻拦军队调动的天然屏障。
 
Radiant-Ask-5716
I don't think that unless red and yellow can team up, either of them could take on blue or green. But if we could reunite the West coast and the heavy hitters cities in Texas, I think it could be a fearsome foe for even blue and green combined. After all, the arms of Texas, natural resources of Alaska, the wealth of California and Hawaii, and religious fervor of Utah, anything is possible. Now if the folks in Utah can be convinced to start a holy war to retake America, I think red might stand a chance provided several factors prove true.
 
我认为，除非红方和黄方能够联手，否则任何一方都无法对抗蓝方或绿方。但如果我们能够重新统一西海岸和德克萨斯州的重镇，我认为即使蓝绿合起来，他们（红黄）也会成为一个可怕的对手。毕竟，德克萨斯州的武装力量、阿拉斯加的自然资源、加利福尼亚州和夏威夷的财富，以及犹他州的宗教狂热，一切皆有可能。现在，如果能够说服犹他州的人们发动一场夺回美国的圣战，我认为只要有几个因素得到证实，红方或许还有一线生机。